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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 9

Harry Bondi

Dallas / Chicago Over 47

Bettors tend to overreact to bad weather conditions and automatically play the "under" and that's what's happening in this game as the line has dropped from an opener of 50 to as low as 47 at some offshore sportsbooks. That gives us some tremendous value so we'll take advantage and go "over" tonight. Chicago ranks second in the league in total combined points per game (54.6) and Dallas ranks fifth (52.6) so these two teams are not unfamiliar with high-scoring affairs. We also have some very strong over situations for these teams as Dallas has gone "over" in 7 of its last 8 games against NFC North teams and Chicago has gone "over" in its last five game vs. the NFC East. Yes, it will be frigid at Soldiers Field tonight, but that won't keep the scoreboard from lighting up. Go over!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 9

The Duke's Sports

Cowboys / Bears Over 48½

Back in the day, both of these teams used to stand for staunch defense and ball control offense; that's all a lingering memory now. Both of these teams have regressed to soft defenses. And you can't sugar coat it because of injuries -- all NFL teams this time of year are thin or experiencing injuries. The fact of the matter is Dallas is dead last in the NFL in stopping the pass. Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2, which Chicago's DC Tucker also employs, is predicated on the front four generating a pass rush; so far, neither team has done that consistently with Dallas and Chicago in the bottom tier of the NFL in sacks; consequently, the mediocre secondary personnel must hold coverage and that's difficult with the receiving talent around this league. Tonight, Romo, who contrary to what analysts say, has pretty good numbers in December (27 TD/5 INT w/ 106.3 passer rating), should dice the Chicago secondary, which will be without Charles Tillman. And to open up the passing game, the Cowboys' RB Murray should post big numbers against the league's worst run-stop-unit, which is without LB Briggs. And the Chicago offense, with QB McCown, should continue to work that lame Dallas secondary despite the return of linebacker Sean Lee. Brandon Marshall has had three big games vs the Cowboys and Forte is another weapon the Cowboys will have trouble with. Cowboys are 4-1 O/U on road and 9-4-1 O/U on MNF. Bears 5-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards previous week and 23-6 O/U after accumulating 350+ previously. Over it is!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 9

OC Dooley

Utah Jazz +7

For those who have taken the time to view this analysis you are aware that Portland (17-4) has been the surprise team of the Western Conference which is loaded with talent.  On the other hand Utah (4-18) is off to the worst start of any squad which is why this evening’s line is steep.  However this is a QUICK REVENGE situation as Portland in front of their fans back on Friday went out and humiliated the Jazz in what turned out to be a 130-98 final verdict.  The key to this pick is that through the years Utah has OWNED Portland in this series as a HOST winning 14 of 17 chances outright.  The Jazz recently got top draft pick Trey Burke back from the injured list and he is coming off a spectacular performance (19 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists) where the talented youngster nearly pulled off a “triple double”.  Another pair of talented youngsters who excelled at the collegiate level (Gordon Hayard, Alec Burks) combined for 41 points in the most recent court appearance by the Jazz. It is difficult to justify any team laying substantial points on the road whose defense has allowed on average a hefty 106 points per pop in a six-game span which is the case for the Blazers.  In the past two years after consecutive games where the defense allowed 55+ points in the opening half each time, Portland (2-13 ATS) has been a financial disaster

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