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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles    
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Eagles are 22-4 off a bye week and had won 3 straight before the week off. Today they take on an Arizona team that has won 4 straight. For our system we want to play on .500 or better non division home favorites with no rest off a home favored win and cover, vs an opponent off a home favored win and cover and a prior win. These home teams are 10-1 and 9-2 to the spread for the Eagles. Arizona is 0-9 ats on the road off a spread win by 10 or more vs a non division opponent. Arizona is also 2-8 ats on the road after scoring 35 or more. Look for Philly to take advantage of the rest and emerge with a win and cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Dave Price

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5

Tampa Bay is better than its record might lead you to believe. The Bucs have won three in a row, and they have four losses of three points or less. Two of these close losses came to the Saints and Seahawks - arguably the two best teams in the NFL. Tampa Bay clearly hasn't quit on the season, and it will be hungry to avenge a 31-13 loss to Carolina in the season's first meeting. Because Carolina's win over Tampa Bay was so lopsided, the Panthers likely won't be able to keep themselves from looking ahead to next week's big showdown at New Orleans. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Steve Janus

Washington Redskins +2

Things have gone about as bad as they possibly could for the Redskins in 2013. While it’s to the point where you have to start worrying about Washington throwing in the towel, I don’t think they will lay down against a division rival. Playing spoiler can sometimes be a huge motivational factor and their would be some satisfaction with ruining the Giants playoff hopes.

There’s no question that New York has been playing better, but I think people might be overreacting a little. Each of the Giants victories during their 4-game winning streak came against a backup quarterback. Three of those four wins also came at home. As bad as the Redskins have been, I don’t know that they should be an underdog at home in this one. Home underdogs after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 92-48 (65.7%) ATS in the month of December since 1983. Adding to this is the fact that the Giants are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a losing home record.

The team who has been favored in this series hasn’t lived up to the hype. The underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Another thing to mention is that while road teams who have struggled to run the football have had a lot of success, Washington is 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games in the second half of the season vs teams who average 90 or less yards/game on the ground.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Andy Iskoe

Jaguars / Browns Under 40

Break up the Jaguars! After starting 0-8 the Jags have won 2 of 3 -- both on the road -- sandwiched around a home loss to hot Arizona. Cleveland has dropped 2 straight and 5 of 6 following a 3-2 start. The Browns are 1-2 both SU and ATS as favorites this season with the lone win and cover in their Thursday night prime time game against Buffalo in early October. The Jaguars are still a bad team that has trouble scoring, topping 20 points just once all season. Cleveland has also had problems on offense and is expected to have ineffective Brandon Weedon back at QB as he returns from injury. Despite the Jags showing life in recent weeks the more comfortable play in this game should be on the Total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Tony Karpinski

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings

The St. Louis Rams’ offense – with running backs that many people had never heard of – just gashed Chicago’s front seven and poor defensive back tacklers for 258 yards on 29 carries. If Benny Cunningham and Zac Stacy could do that – and they did – then surely, the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson and Toby Gehrhart can blast through for at least 150 rushing yards. They probably can. Vikings head coach is about as smart as a box of rocks which scares me, but I'll back Leslie Frazier in this matchup. The Vikings’ defense has a lot on its plate here but I like their chances at home stopping Brandon Marshall and the Bears. Vikes win by a touchdown on Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Charlie Scott

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Chicago Bears   

The Vikings are due for a let down after playing with a ton of energy and emotions in last weeks tie at division rival Green Bay. I believe the Bears are capable with backup QB as the Vikings will commit more mistakes and turnovers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

SPORTS WAGERS

INDIANAPOLIS -3½ over Tennessee

As bad as the Colts have been the past month, the Titans haven’t been much better. The Titans have lost five of their past seven games and one of those was a home loss to the Jaguars when they allowed Jacksonville 29 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick's first full start the second time Jake Locker was sidelined with yet another injury was against these Colts. He passed for 222 yards and one score. He's only played in two road venues this year and now faces the same team that held him in check just two weeks ago in Tennessee. Let’s not forget that the Colts are 7-4 overall and 3-0 in the division.

In sticking with our buy-low/sell-high philosophy, we’ll step in and buy extremely low on the Colts. No team has been harder to figure out this season than the Indianapolis Colts. When they beat the then-invincible Broncos, it gave the rest of the league the blueprint. They handed Seattle its only loss and crushed San Francisco on its home field. Yet, they have lost by 30 points to St. Louis and 29 to Arizona. Those latter two scores have this team very undervalued here. So yeah, the Colts have been crushed by the Rams and Cardinals in two of the past three weeks but this is now the only game that matters. The Colts have to win here to ensure they don't end up out of the playoffs. They only have a two-game lead on the Titans and yet still need to play in Cincinnati and Kansas City. Fortunately the competition inside the division has never been worse and the Titans are among that group. The Titans are 0-3 in the division, they have their back-up QB going, and the fact that they’re travelling in back-to-back weeks after a win in Oakland last Sunday are all factors working against the Titans in their bid for another cover. In a big response game from the Colts, we don’t trust the Titans will come close in that bid.


HOUSTON +7½ over New England

Last week we played the Dolphins getting points at home against the Panthers after Carolina was coming two huge victories in San Francisco and at home to New England on Monday Night Football. Sure enough the Panthers were flat and it took a big comeback and some help from the referees to ensure that narrow victory. Well, the Patriots are in a similar boat this week. This game in Houston comes after two prime-time games. There was that intense filled game in Carolina, followed by last week’s classic contest against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. No doubt buoyed by the big win over the Broncos, the Pats are going to have to fight the urge to take the week off and just show up in Houston for a three-point win to get it over with and go home. The Patriots are 8-3 in the division and pretty much have it all locked up.

The Texans are a complete mess. They were supposed to contend for a Super Bowl this season but instead have turned into one of the worst teams in the NFL. That said, this one single game could at least bring some dignity back and the Texans figure to show up and play their hearts out for 60 full minutes. Situational betting is a huge factor in the outcome of sporting events. This sporting event will be controlled by how motivated the Patriots are and everything points to them being in motivational trouble. New England is just 2-3 on the road where Tom Brady has thrown for just five TD’s in five road games. Not only can Houston keep this one close with a strong effort, they can easily come in through the back door should the Patriots be up between 9 and 14 points late in the fourth.


WASHINGTON -1 over N.Y. Giants

After last week’s sickening showing against San Francisco, the Redskins have suddenly become nearly impossible to bet. The loss to the 49ers was ugly and damaging beyond the mere scoreboard. The ‘Skins never managed a touchdown and there were open questions about HC Mike Shanahan losing the team and if Robert Griffin should even be playing because he still is not 100% healthy (you may want to read about that more in our season win totals posted in the futures section). This season is a lost one for the Redskins but after that game last week in prime time, this one now becomes the Redskins “Super Bowl” and frankly, Washington couldn’t have picked a better team to face.

The Giants are pure garbage and even that may be an understatement. The Giants rushing effort has been much better in recent weeks but the passing offense bears no resemblance to past seasons and that is without any bad weather games yet. The defense has seemingly improved but it has also been fortunate recently playing against teams missing important starters due to injury. The Giants may be on their fourth center of the season as well here, depending on whether Jim Cordle can play with a partially torn patellar tendon. Since the season opener when he last came up big, Eli Manning has not thrown more than two touchdowns in any game and often struggles to pass for more than 200 yards. His torrid pace of interceptions did slow down but Manning is just unable to make this passing offense respond. Additionally, the Giants pass defense is not nearly as good as their ranking suggests. They lucked into facing Josh Freeman, Terrelle Pryor Matt Barkley and Scott Tolzien to hold down their stats. Otherwise every opponent has thrown for two or three touchdowns and solid yardage. The Giants aren’t much better against the run either. Washington looks bad in the win column and on the stat sheet but few defenses can claim a tougher schedule to date (Philly, Green Bay with Rodgers, Detroit, Dallas, Denver, San Diego, Philly again and San Fran). We'll definitely want to exploit whatever value that creates against a lousy New York team on the road that is certainly no better off than these Redskins.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

DAVE COKIN

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS
PLAY: CLEVELAND BROWNS -7

Let’s give the Jaguars a little bit of credit. After basically being the butt of jokes for the first half of the season, Jacksonville has shown some life of late. They’ve won two of their last three and are continuing to play hard in spite of the obvious personnel limitations.

But the fact remains the Jags are pretty miserable and I think they’re in a difficult scheduling spot today. Weird as it sounds, with Jacksonville off the division win against Houston and having the Texans on deck this Thursday, this can actually be construed as a bit of a sandwich for the Jaguars.

The downside of the equation is that fading Jacksonville means laying a substantial number with Cleveland. The Browns have returned to their usual last place residence in the AFC North, and spotting a TD with a team that’s -62 net points is not exactly a dream come true.

There is some upside for the Browns, however. A win here and they’re still just one game out of the wild card in the extremely congested AFC playoff chase. They’re also a full nine points per game better than Jacksonville, which is a pretty basic stat but also one that indicates this line isn’t out of whack.

I also don’t mind that I’m backing Cleveland off a very bad performance. That should increase the chances that the Browns take this game seriously. While this is obviously not a juggernaut, the Browns are considerably better than the Jaguars. If they’re on their game, they’re supposed to win comfortably.

I can’t recall the last time I laid this many points with Cleveland. But if there’s a right time to do it, today’s the day in my estimation. Make it the Browns minus the points to score a comfortable win and cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Mid-Major Matt

South Dakota St vs Stanford
Pick: Over

There will be a lot of points put up on the board Sunday as Stanford hosts South Dakota State. The Cardinal is 5-2 on the season and is averaging 80.3 points per game. Stanford has four big time scorers led by Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown who combine for 34.2 points per contest. They have allowed over 70 points per game in four contests with a fifth going to 68. The Jackrabbits are 3-5 and can point to their defense as one of the main culprits. They have allowed 70 points or more in four games this season. Five players on their team score over 10 points per game so there are a lot of weapons to deal with. South Dakota State has gone over in 17 of their last 29 road lined games. This one should be a high scoring contest.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Harry Bondi

Denver / Kansas City Under 49.5

These two teams played to a 27-17 game two weeks ago in Denver and we'll call for a similar type game here today. Not only do divisional games this late in the season tend to be low scoring, but the Chiefs are simply an "under" team, cashing under tickets in eight out of 11 games this season and in 15 out of their last 22 games overall. Denver has gone under in eight of its last 13 AFC West games and this series has gone under in five of the last six meetings, including the Sunday Night game two weeks ago,. Trend is your friend today in KC. Go under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Bob Balfe

Denver Broncos -6.5

One major thing I try to avoid is going against Seattle and KC when they are at home. Denver has some defensive injuries that could be a problem today, but this KC offense is just not built to go up and down the field and I just see it impossible for them to pace a high powered Denver Offense with so many weapons. For as bad as we think it is for Denver it is 10 times worst for Kansas City. The Chiefs are really starting to doubt themselves now losers of 2 straight. This is a good football team with a great defense, but they have injury on the front 7 today and I just don’t see them stopping a hungry Denver team that let a game get away from them last week. There will always be a man open today for Denver. Take the Broncos.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Carlos Salazar

Redskins vs. Giants
Play: Under 46

Carlos says the Under is the play for Sunday night as neither team will risk many throws and both will try to establish the run early. The Redskins have been underachieving all season and nothing has changed since last week's poor showing against the 49ers. The Giants also have been struggling to score in the red zone and will do so again on Sunday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Jimmy Boyd

Cincinnati Bengals +1

The Chargers are just 2-2 on their home field this season. They are facing a Bengals team that is fighting to maintain a place in the playoffs. The Bengals should have no problem keeping pace with the Chargers since they are averaging 25 points per game this year. San Diego's defense has been soft, allowing opponents an average of 23.6 points per game. The secondary is the weakest link, having given up a 67.9% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks for 277 passing yards per game.

The Bengals are a very strong team when moving the ball through the air. Andy Dalton has completing almost 62% of his pass attempts for 257 yards per game. Cincinnati also gets a big matchup advantage defensively. They have held opponents to just 18.7 points per game, and their outstanding secondary should slow down Philip Rivers. I think the hungry team wins this game, and with the Bengals trying to maintain a division lead on Baltimore they will be the hungrier team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Justin Bay

Oilers vs. Stars
Play: Over 5½

Dallas Stars
- Allowing 2.83 goals per game
- Have won 12 of 14 against Oilers
- Average 2.7 goals per game
- Allow 2.8 goals per game
- 11% on Power Play (29th in NHL)
- 80% on Penalty Kill (20th in NHL)

Edmonton Oilers
- Average 2.6 goals per game
- Allow 3.4 goals per game
- 20% on Power Play (13th in NHL)
- 82% on Penalty Kill (17th in NHL)


Miami (Fla) vs. Arizona St    
Play: Arizona St -6½

Miami
- Average 66.6 PPG
- Allow 64.1 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 97.93

Arizona State
- Average 81.1 PPG
- Allow 67 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 100.06

**According to our system, Arizona State should win by double digits**


Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Seton Hall    
Play: Seton Hall -22

Fairleigh Dickinson
- Average 61 PPG
- Allow 77.2 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 97.95

Seton Hall
- Average 78.3 PPG
- Allow 74 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 103.25

**According to our system, Seton Hall should cover the spread**


Loyola-Chicago vs. Mississippi St
Play: Mississippi St -8

Loyola-Chicago
- Average 66.8 PPG
- Allow 69 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 94.68

Mississippi State
- Average 73.8 PPG
- Allow 65.2 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 95.62

**According to our system, Mississippi State should win by double digits**


St. Joseph's vs. Washington St    
Play: Washington St +3½

Washington State
- average 70 PPG
- allow 67.3 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 102.12

St. Joseph's
- average 75.4 PPG
- allow 71.4 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 100.48

**According to our system, Washington State should win this game outright**

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Jack Jones

Chicago Bears +1

The Chicago Bears trail the Detroit Lions by a half-game for first place in the NFC North Division. They are actually 1.5 games behind due to losing both meetings with the Lions this season, making this an even more important contest for them to win Sunday. Despite being without Jay Cutler, Chicago has continued to play pretty well due to Josh McCown stepping up as a backup quarterback.

McCown is completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 1,106 yards with seven touchdowns against only one interception on the season. His 100.8 passer rating is more than 12 points high than Cutler’s mark of 88.4. Matt Forte is having a big year, rushing for 851 yards and seven touchdowns, while also catching 57 balls for 412 yards and a score. These two lead a Chicago unit that ranks 8th in the league in total offense (372.5 yards/game) and 4th in scoring offense (27.5 points/game).

Chicago’s offense should have its way with a Minnesota stop unit that ranks last in the league in scoring (31.5 points/game) and 30th in total defense (401.0 yards/game). The Vikings have not been much better on the other side of the ball, averaging just 329.5 yards per game to rank 20th in total offense. At just 2-8-1 on the season, the Vikings have little to play for here aside from pride. The motivation factor clearly has to favor the Bears heading into this one given the situation.

Plays on road teams (CHICAGO) – off a road loss, in weeks 10 through 13 are 72-31 (69.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears have won seven of their past eight meetings with the Vikings, going 6-2 against the spread in the process. Chicago is 13-4 against the spread in its last 17 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game. The Vikings are 1-5 against the number in their last six games following an ATS win. Bet the Bears Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

Jim Feist

Pacers at Clippers
Play: Pacers

The Indiana Pacers have been the surprise of the NBA thus far, winning every game but one. They started the season 9-0 and then lost at Chicago. Since the loss, they have rattled off five more wins. But how have they done against the all important spread? Well, pretty darn good. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS their last six and 12-4 ATS on the season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have had a good season too, going 12-5 S/U and 9-7-1 ATS. The Pacers have been excellent on the road, covering all but one game this season. In fact, they have been a dog just two times on the road. The Clippers could be without a key component of their offense as Guard Chris Paul (19 ppg) is questionable with a hamstring injury. This game looks to be the marquee matchup on Sunday and should be fun to watch. But my money is going on the visitor here, especially if Paul is missing or hampered by his injury. Your free play is on the Indiana Pacers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

CRAIG DAVIS

Your free play of the day is on the Cincinnati Bengals over San Diego.

There's a reason the Bengals aren't more than a one-point dog... because Vegas knows that the general public is going to put a lot of stock into San Diego's 3-point win at Kansas City.

Sure, it was a great win for the Chargers, but it was only one game and it doesn't change what's happened in their season thus far. Let's remember, this is the NFL and it's really hard to show up and look dominant defensively, week in and week out, like the Chiefs had done until last week.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, had a week to get rested for the stretch run and what looks to be another trip to the playoffs.

Now I'm not here saying the Bengals are world beaters and are going to come into south California and run the Chargers off the field, but this defense is going to be very excited to get a hold of a San Diego offense that could be a little over-confident.

We have to keep in mind the Bengals might have a few bad losses on their record, but they have a lot of impressive wins too, like Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, at Detroit, etc.

The defense obviously must come to play, and if they do the offense will follow suit.

Take the Bengals as your free play of the day.

2* CINCINNATI

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

JEFF BENTON

Sunday freebie is the New England Patriots over the Houston Texans.

Wow! After starting the year 2-0, Houston has proceeded to lose their last 9 games, including an outright loss to lowly Jacksonville last weekend at Reliant Stadium. The Texans are now a money-burning 1-9-1 against the spread in their 11 games this season, and I want no parts of them in the home underdog role against a Patriots team that is flying-high after their comeback from 24-0 last Sunday night at home against Denver.

This is a rematch of a playoff meeting last season in Foxborough, as the Patriots dumped the Texans 41-28 as the -9 1/2 point favorites in a game Houston simply could not stop Tom Brady. Doubt the Texans nicked up defense stops Tom Terrific today either, as New England has been able to cover their last pair and 3 of their last 4 when listed as the favorite.

Go ahead and lay the road lumber, as New England hands Houston another ugly loss as the Texans season from hell continues.

5* NEW ENGLAND

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

BRETT ATKINS

My free play for Sunday is on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points in Philadelphia against the Green Birds..

Though what I'm about to say will throw you for a loop, it's the truth, and it's going to be exciting. I can't wait to see quarterback Nick Foles and Carson Palmer in a shootout at Lincoln Financial Field. They're not the sexiest names under center in the NFL, but you know what, they've got their own niche with their respective teams, and they're keeping their squads alive in the NFC Playoff hunt.

Palmer was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week after accumlating 314 yards and throwing two touchdowns in a 40-11 shellacking of the Indianapolis. Palmer became the first Cardinal in franchise history to have at least 300 yards passing, at least 70 percent completions and a minimum-110 passer rating in consecutive games.

Opposing him is the man who has taken the starting position from Mike Vick, and was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month in November. Foles has thrown 16 touchdowns versus no interceptions this season, and leads the league with a passer rating of 128.

Now, why am I taking the road dog in this one if the Eagles are in after a bye week and have been playing cohesive since a 1-3 start to the season? Because even though Philly has won five of its last seven, the Cardinals arrive in Philly on a four-game win streak and in the middle of a heated NFC West race with San Francisco. It's undoubtedtly a given the Seahawks will win the West, and while the 49ers have been walking around with a chip on their shoulders, as if everything will just get handed to them, the Cardinals are putting in blue-collar work.

And they have no choice but to win these games, as they close the season in Seattle and versus San Francisco on the last two weekends. And I'm sorry, but when you have a veteran like Palmer, together with a guy like Larry Fitzgerald, and a team playing with unbridled confidence, well, all I have to say everyone else in its path is be careful.

Arizona has covered four four of the last five meetings, while the Eagles have failed to cover nine of their last 10 against winning teams. Take the road pup here, and be sure you're getting that extra half point on this line, and taking +3.5.

5* ARIZONA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 1

SEAN MICHAELS

Last Sunday I gave you a comp winner on the Ravens over the Jets. Today I'm backing Philadelphia (-3) at home against Arizona.

The Cardinals have won four in a row, but the victims were three teams going nowhere (Falcons, Texans and Jaguars) and one floundering of late (Colts) with three of the wins coming at home. Now they're back on the road playing an early game for a west coast team and that puts them at a disadvantage before getting on the field.

Philadelphia is rested and on a roll, having beaten Washington at home plus Green Bay and Oakland on the road prior to a bye. Nick Foles (16 TDs, 0 INTs this season) completed 71 percent of his passes with 10 TDs during the streak. He'll be blitzed a lot today, but he's burned defenses when they've brought the heat by completing 26-of-42 passes for 432 yards and five touchdowns this season.

The Eagles' defense has held seven straight foes to 21 points or less. They've got to put pressure on Carson Palmer, who's been sacked 30 times already this season. The veteran quarterback has played well of late with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions during the four-game winning streak, but he is the same guy who had 13 interceptions in the season's first seven games. With Arizona's ground game next to non-existent, the pressure will literally be on Palmer to produce.

2* PHILADELPHIA

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