College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, November 29

College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, November 29

NCAAF Week 14

Nebraska shut Iowa down in both meetings as league rivals, winning 13-7 at Iowa LY, 20-7 here in 2011; Cornhuskers outrushed Iowa 422-196 in the two games. Hawkeyes completed just 27-61 passing in those games; they're 3-1 on road this year, losing by 10 (+17) at Ohio State for only road loss. Nebraska allowed 34-41-41 points in its three losses this year, with two of them at home; Iowa scored 24 or less points in six of its last seven games. Big Dozen home favorites are 14-9 vs spread.

Miami won its last seven games with Pitt, but teams haven't met since 2010, only once in last decade; Hurricanes were outrushed 601-276 in last two games- they've lost three of last four after 7-0 start, losing at Florida State (41-14), Duke (48-20). Pitt has total of 168 rushing yards in its last four games; they've lost three of last five, nipping Syracuse in Carrier Dome 17-16 last week, which made them bowl eligible. Panthers are 6-5 but beat Duke/Notre Dame, pretty good teams; they're 3-2 as an underdog this season. Miami failed to cover any of its last six games.

Washington State upset the Huskies LY, ending three-year skid in Apple Cup, where underdogs are 11-5 vs spread the last 16 years, 1-3 last four; dogs are 5-2 in Coogs' last seven visits here. 6-5 Wazzu became eligible for bowl last week, but their last four losses this year have been by 38-28-24-34 points; they're 4-2 as an underdog this year. Washington is 3-1 as home favorite this year, beating I-A teams at home by 32-18-24-52 points; Huskies played only one game this year that was decided by less than 10 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 16-11 against the spread.

Oregon won its last five games with Oregon State, beating Beavers by an average score of 47-27; State lost seven of last eight visits here (3-5 vs spread), losing last two 49-21/37-33. Ducks lost two of last theree after an 8-0 start; they're 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning by 24-23 in two games they didn't cover. Oregon allowed 274-304 rushing yards iin its two losses, but State is more of finesse passing team. State lost last four games; they're 6-5 with loss to a I-AA team, not sure what bowl is going want them- they're 4-1 SU on road, 2-0 as a road underdog.

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Friday's Afternoon Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Iowa at Nebraska

As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had Nebraska (8-3 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) favored by 2 ½ with a total of 47 ½. The Hawkeyes are +115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115).

Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is on the hot seat and it’s debatable whether or not a win in this situation will prevent his dismissal. The Cornhuskers are 3-4 ATS at home and have twice lost outright to UCLA and Michigan St.

Iowa (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has thrived on the road this season, winning three of four games while taking the cash in each instance. The only defeat was a 34-24 loss at Ohio St. in a game the Hawkeyes led outright for a good portion of the game as 19-point underdogs.

Nebraska is led by RB Ameer Abdullah, who has rushed for 1,483 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Ron Kellog III will get the starting nod at QB. He has a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio this year. Kellog got nearly all the snaps in Saturday’s 23-20 overtime win at Penn St.

Iowa has won three of its last four games, including a 24-21 win over Michigan last weekend. Kirk Ferentz’s squad failed to cover the number as a six-point home favorite. The Hawkeyes’ defense limited the Wolverines to 158 yards of total offense to overcome three interceptions from QB Jake Rudock, including a pick-six.

The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for Nebraska, but the ‘over’ is 4-3 in its home games.

The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for Iowa, 3-1 in its four road assignments.

Since joining the Big Ten, Nebraska has won both head-to-head meetings over Iowa. In Iowa City last season, the Cornhuskers captured a 13-7 win but the Hawkeyes covered the number as 14.5-point underdogs. In 2011, Nebraska rolled to a 20-7 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’

Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ABC.

Arkansas at LSU

As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had LSU (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) installed as a 25-point favorite with a total of 54 ½ points.

Arkansas (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) has lost eight consecutive games since starting the year with three straight wins. The Razorbacks are mired in a 2-8 ATS slump. They had their best shot at a win since Week 4 last week, only to come up on the wrong end of a 24-17 decision to Mississippi St. in overtime. The Bulldogs took the cash as two-point road favorites.

LSU has been a home favorite six times this year, compiling a 3-3 spread record. The Tigers are coming off their best performance of the year in a 34-10 win over Texas A&M as 3.5-point home favorites. The defense stymied Johnny Manziel for a second straight season, intercepting him twice. Terrence Magee rushed 13 times for 149 yards and one TD, while Zach Mettenberger threw a pair of touchdown passes without being intercepted.

Sophomore RB Jeremy Hill leads LSU in rushing with 1,040 yards and 13 TDs. Mettenberger has a 22/7 TD-INT ratio and will likely eclipse the 3,000-yard passing plateau in the first half.

Arkansas freshman RB Alex Collins has one of the few bright spots for Bret Bielema’s first squad in Fayetteville. Collins has run for a team-high 998 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.

Poor QB play from Brandon Allen has been an issue for Arkansas. Allen has completed only 47.6 percent of his throws with an 11/9 TD-INT ratio.

The ‘over’ is 6-4-1 overall for the Hogs, 3-0-1 in their four road assignments.

The ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for LSU, 4-2 in its home games.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Miami has failed to cover the spread in six straight games. The Hurricanes go on the road Friday to face Pittsburgh in a cold-weather game.

In the Civil War, Oregon has won five in a row over Oregon St., going 3-1-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is 10-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals. The Beavers have lost four straight games, including last week’s embarrassing 69-27 home loss to Washington. At one point, OSU quarterback Sean Mannion had an incredible 30/3 TD-INT ratio, but he has been intercepted 10 times in the last three outings. With that said, we should note that Oregon St. is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road underdog. The Ducks are favored by 23.

Ohio, an 18-point home favorite vs. UMass, has lost three straight games while being outscored 128-16. Ouch!

SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert (21/7 TD-INT) is ‘doubtful’ at Houston.

During Terry Bowden’s tenure at Akron, the Zips are 1-6 ATS as home underdogs. They are 7.5-point home ‘dogs Friday vs. Toledo.

Arizona State RB Marion Grice is ‘out’ vs. Arizona. Grice has rushed for 996 yards and 20 TDs this year.

Florida starting LB Michael Taylor is ‘out’ vs. FSU after spraining his knee in last week’s 26-20 home loss to Ga. Southern as a 28-point home favorite. Ga. Southern closed with 60/1 money-line odds (Bet $100 to win $6,000) at 5Dimes. The status of UF quarterback Tyler Murphy (shoulder) remains a question mark.

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Oregon State at Oregon: What Bettors Need to Know
Covers.com

Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-21.5, 68.5)

A month ago, Oregon was on a path toward the BCS title game, but now the Ducks are simply on a path to redemption. Following a crushing defeat against Stanford on Nov. 7 and last week's stunning blowout at Arizona, No. 12 Oregon returns home looking to take out some anger against rival Oregon State in the Civil War game Friday. The Ducks appear to be catching the Beavers at the right time as Oregon State has dropped four straight games, including a 69-27 pounding against Washington last week.

The Beavers' rushing defense could be the key this weekend as they allowed 530 yards on the ground against the Huskies. The Ducks, while led by Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota at quarterback, also possess a strong rushing attack that ranks 10th in the country at 277.9 yards per contest. Oregon wideout Keanon Lowe knows that sulking is not an option at this point, saying, "It's the Civil War. We all know what the Civil War is and what that means. So we have no time to dwell on (our recent losses)."

LINE: The line opened at -22 and has been bet down to -21.5. The total opened at 67.5 and has been bet up to 68.5.

WEATHER: It will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 40s.

BOUT OREGON STATE (6-5, 5-6 ATS): Brandin Cooks is one of the offensive headliners for Oregon State, already possessing the school's single-season
record with 110 receptions, just eight shy of the Pac-12 record set last season by Marqise Lee of USC. Of course, behind any record-setting receiver there is a big-time quarterback, and Sean Mannion has been terrific in 2013, completing 66 percent of his passes for 4,089 yards with 34 touchdowns. However, the Oregon State defense has allowed 37.5 points on average during its four-game slide and gave up 692 total yards to the Huskies last weekend.

ABOUT OREGON (9-2, 7-4 ATS): The Ducks were ranked No. 2 in the BCS prior to their loss to the Cardinal and following last week's defeat, Oregon will sit
back and watch as Stanford and Arizona State play for the league title next weekend. Mariota (3,127 passing yards, 529 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns) suffered a head injury last week but passed the concussion protocol and expects to play against the Beavers. Still, that could mean a heavier workload for De'Anthony Thomas, who racked up 227 all-purpose yards on 27 touches against Arizona.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oregon.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Oregon State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five meetings.
* Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Prior to throwing an interception on the Ducks' first play against Arizona, Mariota had gone 353 straight passes without a pick.

2. Oregon has won five straight in the series.

3. Oregon State has six wins, but the Beavers are not guaranteed a bowl game, as the Pac-12 has seven bowl agreements but nine teams already bowl eligible.

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Friday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers (-25, 54)

One bright spot for the Razorbacks in this rough season has been the pass rush. Arkansas’ 25 sacks are good for third in the SEC, and Chris Smith ranks second in the conference with 8.5 sacks. Pressuring LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger into potential turnover situations might be the only chance Arkansas has against the Tigers, who gashed the Texas A&M Aggies for 324 rushing yards last week.

At 2,926 yards for the season,Mettenberger will become the third quarterback in school history to throw from 3,000 yards, barring an injury, but much of that success came early in the season. In LSU’s last five games, Mettenberger has seven touchdowns against five interceptions after racking up a 15-to-3 ratio in the Tigers’ first six contests. Jarvis Landry leads a talented receiving corps with 67 catches for 1,059 yards.

LINE: The Tigers are listed as 25-point favorites, with the total holding steady at 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies.
TRENDS:

* Razorbacks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings at LSU.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans (+7.5, 71.5)

No. 13 Fresno State looks to complete an undefeated and untied regular season for the third time in school history when it visits San Jose State in its regular-season finale Friday. The Bulldogs have already wrapped up the West Division title in the Mountain West Conference and will play in the league championship game on Dec. 7. To finish perfect, Fresno State will have to defeat its longest-running rival, as the Spartans and Bulldogs have played 76 previous times.

A week after giving up 478 yards and 58 points in a loss to Navy, the San Jose State defense is feeling confident about going up against Fresno State's high-powered offense. Why? Because the Bulldogs are a passing team, something the Spartans are used to facing, as opposed to the run-oriented Midshipmen, who had 432 of their yards on the ground.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened at -9, but have been bet down to -7.5. The total is currently 71.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
* Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-23, 69)

Brandin Cooks is one of the offensive headliners for Oregon State, already possessing the school's single-season record with 110 receptions, just eight shy of the Pac-12 record set last season by Marqise Lee of USC. Of course, behind any record-setting receiver there is a big-time quarterback, and Sean Mannion has been terrific in 2013, completing 66 percent of his passes for 4,089 yards with 34 touchdowns.

The Ducks were ranked No. 2 in the BCS prior to their loss to the Cardinal and following last week's defeat, Oregon will sit back and watch as Stanford and Arizona State play for the league title next weekend. Mariota (3,127 passing yards, 529 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns) suffered a head injury last week but passed the concussion protocol and expects to play against the Beavers.

LINE: Oregon is a 23-point fave after opening -21. The total is up to 69.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with mostly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Beavers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
* Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.

South Florida Bulls at UCF Knights (-26.5, 50)

The Bulls have faced two ranked teams this season, losing to Miami and Louisville by a combined margin of 83-24. South Florida dropped a 16-6 defeat to Southern Methodist last week despite holding the Mustangs to a season-low 229 passing yards - one week after limiting Memphis to just 59 passing yards. Senior wideout Andre Davis ranks fifth all-time at South Florida in both career receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,441).

The Knights are 5-1 this season in games decided by seven points or less, although last week's 49-17 rout of Rutgers featured no such drama. Blake Bortles  threw for 335 yards and recorded a touchdown through the air and another on the ground, while Storm Johnson had two rushing scores. In addition to its dynamic offense, Central Florida has committed the ninth-fewest turnovers in the country.

LINE: UCF is a 26.5-point fave, up a half-point from a -26 open. The total is up a half-point to 50.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 8 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bulls are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win.
* Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 7-2 in UCF's last nine games vs. teams with losing records.

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College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks

Oregon knocked off in stunningly fashion by Wildcats (42-16) in Tucson return to Autzen Stadium looking to take out their frustration on in-state rival Beavers'. Probably not a good idea to bet against Oregon in the 'Quack-Cage'. The Ducks on a 5-0 streak following a loss outscoring opponents by 29.4 points/game are 3-0 at home in the situation with a 33.3 point winning margin. Oregon 5-2-1 ATS last eight vs Oregon State, the Beavers 1-3 ATS last four the lean is Ducks with it's 6-3 ATS mark laying 20 or more vs Pac-12 foes.

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Big Ten Report - Week 14
By ASAWins.com

Nebraska (-3, 48) vs. Iowa

The Huskers escaped with an overtime win at Penn State last week and still has a chance to get to 10 wins this season. RB Abdullah continued his strong play with 147 more rush yards while third-string QB Kellogg didn’t make any mistakes (191 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) and the Huskers special teams contributed with a 99-yard kickoff return TD. Penn State missed a field goal in their first possession of overtime and Nebraska converted on a 42-yarder to steal the road win. Defensively Nebraska held PSU to 387 yards but made stops when it counted (PSU was just 2-of-14 on third downs). Next up is senior night at home in the rivalry game against Iowa. The Hawkeyes absolutely dominated the stat sheet against Michigan last week but only won by three points thanks to four turnovers. Iowa had +249 yards, +11 first downs, and +7 minutes TOP. The Hawks were down by 14 points at halftime but the defense was absolutely dominant in the 2nd half. Iowa held Michigan to just 45 total yards in the 2nd half, forcing five punts and one fumble in six Michigan possessions. QB Rudock had an erratic day with 2 TD and 3 INT, but moved the ball well with 239 pass yards while the ground game tallied 168 rush yards. Iowa has failed to win both of the meetings with Nebraska so far (1-1 ATS), getting outscored 33-14 through two games. The Hawkeyes are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Huskers have failed to cover their last two home games but are 10-5-1 ATS in the last 16 home games as a favorite.

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ACC Report - Week 14
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Miami, Fl. at Pittsburgh

The Hurricanes hit the road for the Steel City in the only action on Friday from the ACC. Miami put the brakes on a three-game losing skid against Virginia last weekend, but yet again failed to cover. They are now 0-6 ATS in their past six ACC games, and they have failed to cover each of their past four against teams with winning records. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games in the month of November, and 16-7 ATS in their past 23 games against a team with a winning record. The Panthers are also 9-1 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Pitt has covered each of its past three, and won two of their past three overall, including wins against Notre Dame at home, and on the road in Syracuse last weekend. The public is rolling with the 'Canes at nearly a two-to-one clip.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 14
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Washington State at Washington

The Cougs get no respect from Vegas, entering their rivalry game as a two-touchdown underdog. Take notice that WaZu is 8-3 ATS so far this season. Washington State is bowl eligible for the first time since 2006, but they're looking for a signature win, and to guarantee a spot. While nine teams are bowl eligible, only seven are assured spots in the postseason due to tie-ins. QB Connor Halliday looks to stay hot after going for nearly 500 passing yards last weekend with four TD tosses against Utah. For Washington, their big gun is RB Bishop Sankey, who is looking to bump former Huskies RB Corey Dillon from the perch. Dillon once rolled for 1,695 rushing yards in a single season, and Sankey is 121 yards away from eclipsing that mark. Look for Washington State to see a steady diet of No. 25. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the Cougs are 4-9 ATS in the past 13 meetings.

Oregon State at Oregon

If you're looking to make a play in this game Friday, the over might be your best bet. The over is 10-3 in Oregon State's past 13 games against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 in their past seven road games against a team with a winning home mark. The over is 29-10-1 in Oregon's past 40 home games, and 4-1 in their past five home games against a team with a winning road record. In this series, the over is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Eugene, and 10-1 in the past 11 meetings overall. As far as the number, Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, and 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. Oregon is struggling against the spread lately, going 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven home contests against a team with a winning road record. Oregon enters as a 22-point favorite, and Oregon State certainly has the guns to cover if they can re-discover their offense and stop turning it over.

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C-USA Game of the week: East Carolina at Marshall
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

Marshall and East Carolina meet in a major battle for Conference USA divisional seeding.  The Pirates own a one game advantage over the Thundering Herd, so this game will decide who will go to the conference championship game.

When East Carolina has the ball:

The Pirates feature a high scoring offense that has been on a roll the last six games, posting at least 30 points in the last six games.  They average a big play play on 16% of their snaps, and are averaging 36.5 yards per drive.  They've only gone three and out on 24% of their drives, thanks to a stellar season by Shane Carden.  Carden has completed 72.8% of his passes for nearly eight yards per attempt with 32 TDs and just seven interceptions.  He's made his money on third downs, converting over half of his passing attempts, and better than a third of them when its third and ten or longer.  Carden has nine recievers with double digit catches, with most of those passes going to Justin Hardy.  Hardy has 95 receptions for 11.9 yards per catch with eight touchdowns on the season.  Reese Wiggins though is the onyl reciever with more than 10 catches that is averaging better than 14 yards per catch.  On the ground Vintavious Cooper has been the bell cow, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has found the endzone nine times.  The last two weeks he has broken the hundred yard mark, postinf 126 yards and 148.

The Marshall defense though has been rock solid, allowing just 21 points a game and 4.6 yards per play.  Opponents are converting under 80% of their red zone attempts, and converting just 32.8% of their third downs.  The Herd has allowed just 50% of passes to be completed aginst them, for just 6.2 yards per attempt.  Theyve also been able to pick of 14 passes,  lead by freshman AJ Leggett.  Leggett though has missed the last three weeks, leaving Monterius Lovett and Darryl Roberts to man the secondary.  Senior James Rouse has been the leader along the defensive front, leading the team with 12 tackles for loss and three QB hurries.  Jermaine Holmes leads the team with 75 tackles, 8.5 of them for loss and an interception.

When Marshall has the ball:

The Thundering Herd hav punded the ball to rack up 38 yards per drive, with their top three rushers averaging over five yards a carry.  Essray Taliaferro has carried the ball 159 times for 845 yards and nien touchdowns.  Essray has 25 runs of more than ten yards, while backfield mate Steward Butler has had 27% of his carries go for more than ten yards.  Butler is averaging 10 yards per carry, and Kevin Grooms has 91 runs for 5.5 yards per carry.  The offensive line has doen a great job to open holes, and Marshall has just 6.4% of their plays end in negative yards.  Rakeem Cato has been able to take advantage of the good run game, tossing 32 touchdowns and just 7 ints with a 7.9 yards per attempt mark.  He's completed better than one in five of his passes for more than 15 yards and has converted 46% of hsi third down attempts.
The East Carolina defense has allowed just 4.7 yards per play this season, and have allowed just an in incredible 69.4% of red zone trips to result in scores.  Theyev been stout against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry so far, and just 2.4 in the second halves of games.  Montese Overton and Derrell Johnson have both been playmakers, each totalling 10.5 tackles for loss so far.  Johnson leads the team with 68 total stops, while second leading tackelr Damon Magazu leads the team with three interceptions.  The Secondary has defended 14% of the passing attempts against them.

What's our take:

If you don't watch a lot of mid major football this will be one to tune into. Both teams have the offenses humming and feature solid defensive and special teams units. Playing at hone should give the thundering herd the upper hand and they should be able to cover the -2.5.

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