Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Kansas City Under 43: The Chiefs are on a 11-2 Under in their last 13 games, while their last 16 vs the AFC West has gone 13-2-1 to the Under, plus we also note that AFC West divisional home favs of less than 7, with an OU line of less than 47 has gone 10-0-1 to the Under the last 5 years. The Charger offense has not been all that great this year. Last week they were held to just 16 points vs a tough Miami defense, and prior to that game they had scored just 20.8 ppg vs some bad defenses that include Denver, Jacksonville, Indy and Washington. Rivers has been better than past year but it hasnt translated into that many more points. I don't see that changing vs this tough KC defense that is 12th in the leagie in total defense, 9th vs the pass and 2nd in points allowed at 13.8 ppg. The Chiefs offense is not explosive and they are more about the run, which will eat clock. They are also a conservative offense and the Bolts defense is much better vs the run than the pass. Overall the Chargers play a bend but don't break defense as they are 27th in yards allowed, but 11th in points allowed at 22.2 ppg. This game will feature allot of running and defense and conservative calls and all that should leed to a game in the low 30's at best.

3 UNIT PLAYS

ST LOUIS -1.5 over Chicago: The Chicago offense has looked solid with McCown under center, but I feel that an underrated St Louis pass rush will put enough pressure on Mccown so that he makes some crucial mistakes. On the other side we have a St Louis run game that has been very good behind rookie Zac Stacy and they ill look to pound away at a very bad Chicago run defense, which will in turn open up some throwing lanes for Clemmons to hit some plays downfield. St Louis is off a bye week and that extra prep time should have them ready to face the Bears in this one. We Also note that Fisher is 11-3 ATS vs teams with a winning pct of .600 or better. The St Louis ground game will wear the bears out as they pull away in the 4th.

Detroit/ Tampa Bay Over 48.5: I see this as a fun one. Tampa Bay is playing better on offenses of late and Schiano is making it more fun for them, but calling trick plays and just going all out to win games. Glennon is getting better under center and he has some good weapons to throw to and they will be facing a Detroit defense that is 25th overall, 30th vs the pass in 22nd in points allowed, giving up 26.3 ppg. On offense the Lions are one of the best in the league, ranking 4th overall and 3rd in passing. The Detroit offense really kicks in high gear on their home field, where the have averaged 478.3 ypg and 32.3 ppg. The Tampa Offense has scored just 16.8 ppg on the road this year, but in their last two road games vs Seattle and Atlanta they did put up 24 and 23 points and getting that much out of them here should leave us golden. The Bucs have allowed 24.8 ppg on the road/ but I clearly expect 28+ in this one from Detroit. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER as dogs of more than 7 and 6-1-1 OVER vs the NFC North, while Detroit is 5-1 to the OVER before playing Green Bay. Very hard to see less than 50 in this one.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Miami/ Carolina Over 41.5: Miami can't run the ball, so they will have to throw it and either get yards or there will be plenty of clock stoppages. Defensively Miami is one of the worst teams vs the Pass and Cam can throw the ball to and has a solid group of receivers to throw to. The Panthers do put up 21.6 ppg on the rad, while Miami has averaged 22.6 ppg at home. After last week's huge clash with the Pats, if there is going to be a letdown from the Panthers it will come on the defensive side. Both offeneses should have a good day as we get 45+ points in this one.

GREEN BAY -5 over Minnesota: The Packers are in dire need of a win here and Tolzien is getting better and he will be going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Packers still have a solid defense and will shut down the Minnesota offense, on their way to a TD+ win.

1 UNIT PLAY

Jets/ Baltimore Under 39: The Jet offense has really been inconsistent this year and they average just 18.3 ppg overall and 15.2 ppg at home. The Jet offense is mostly about the run and the Ravens play the run well, allowing just 102.7 ypg on the ground, which is 9th in the league. Baltimore also plays great defense at home, where they have allowed just 12.8 ppg. The Ravens have not been very good on offense at home, scoring just 20.3 ppg and their 4 home games overall have averaged just 33.1 ppg. This one will be played in the low 30's at best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Triple Threat Sports

Bears/Rams Under

Total just jumped off the page at us when we saw the openers, as we had this one pegged at 40. The Rams did score 38 points in their last game, but many of those were giftwrapped by Colts turnovers, and prior to that - in two home games - the team had managed just 30 points in eight quarters. Chicago not a great offense, as while McCown is doing yeoman's work as Cutler's backup, they are just not as explosive without Smokin Jay at the helm. Also, the Chicago defense has been much improved since the bye week, not having allowed more than 21 in the three games since...and those three games were against better offenses than this one. Finally, a look at the numbers shows that teams are 15-24 to the Under after a bye if they scored 35 or more in the game before the rest, and also that last year - with both starting QB's playing - these teams played and combined for just 29 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

The Duke's Sports

Tampa Bay +9.5

Tampa Bay/Detroit 1:05: TB has gained winning momentum after a difficult go of it. The Bucs have covered three straight. They have a recent tendency to deliver off a SU win under Schiano at 4-0-1 ATS. The pass game is starting to click under rookie QB Glennon and he should be able to expose a pass defense ranked 30th in the NFL. On the other hand, going against the Lions is always a concern with WR Calvin Johnson healthy; however, TB CB Revis should be up to the task; after all, he held Johnson to 1 catch for 13 yards the last time he had that duty. The demoralized Lions are 1-10 ATS after allowing 30+ the previous week, and they're 1-8 ATS in week 12. Schwartz lost them yet another game a week ago with another bone head decision; pretty soon Detroit will tune him out. The dog in this series is 7-2 ATS while the road team has covered 4 of the last 5. TB has the value here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

John Fina

Detroit Lions -8.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off two straight wins (the Detroit Lions coming off a loss), however, that just gives us a better line in this one as the Detroit Lions are the much superior team. The Buccaneers are a terrible team with problems on offense and defense. On offense, the Buccaneers will be going with rookie QB Mike Glennon. While QB Mike Glennon has played okay football as of late, he will find himself in his biggest NFL battle yet as he is going into a very loud dome stadium, in a hard core city (Detroit). Adding to Mike Glennon troubles today is the Lions have a strong pass rush. To say the very least, the Buccaneers will struggle to score. While you should always think twice before laying two scores in an NFL game, this is a solid spot to do so with the Lions. The Lions are coming off a loss (in a game they should of won), and won't take any chances in this one. The Lions offense should have no problem scoring many points, and won't stop for noting as they don't want this one to slip past them like last week. The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings against the Buccaneers, and should once again be able to get the ATS win today. Lay the points! Take the Detroit Lions -8.5!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Tony Mathew

Cleveland Brown -1

We will be the first to admit that the Cleveland Browns have holes on offense. That is very unfortunate as it would of been very exciting to watch this offense all season long if QB Brian Hoyer did not get hurt. While nowhere as good as Brian Hoyer, replacement QB Jason Campbell has looked comfortable out there since taking over. In fact, Jason Campbell has passed for 250 or more yards in all of his starts this season. He should have another solid day against a weak overrated Steelers defense.

On the defensive side, the Cleveland Browns are young and emerging. If they can keep this defensive unit together, with the right coaching staff, it will be exciting to watch this defense in years to come. As for this Sunday, they should be able to hold off a Steelers offense who's only decent player is an ageing Ben Roethlisberger. Don't take this the wrong way, we think Ben Roethlisberger is a solid QB, the only problem is unlike in past seasons, he has no offensive weapons to work with. To make matters worse, their star WR Emmanuel Sanders left last week against the Lions with a foot injury and did not return. So even if he plays this week, he will not be at one hundred percent. This is all very troubling for the Steelers offense, as the Browns do have a very decent secondary and will force the Steelers into quick passes with their fierce pass rush.

This is one of those games that home field advantage means a lot. In fact, the Cleveland Browns (when playing at home) have beaten the Bengals, Bills, and Ravens. As for the Steelers (when playing on the road), they have lost to the Bengals, Vikings, Raiders, and Patriots.

If the Cleveland Browns want any chance at the playoffs, they must win this game vs. the Steelers on Sunday. We see them doing just that!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

JEFF BENTON

Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Vikings-Packers game.

I know the points have been hard to come by for Green Bay since their leader Aaron Rodgers went down on that Monday nighter against Chicago,but there is nothing like seeing the Minnesota defense (allowing 32 ppg game) for any ailing offense.

I expect Green Bay to get their points in this one, as I am just not sold on this Vikings defense which will never be confused with the "Purple People Eaters" of the 1970's. Minny has played Overs in 8 of their 10 games this season, and that includes a 44-31 shootout in Minnesota back on October 27th.

Adrian Peterson has had some monster games facing Green Bay in his career, so let's look for the points to add up, and for Over which is on a 7-3 series surge to be the way to go.

Vikings-Packers Over the total.

3* MINNESOTA-GREEN BAY OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

BRAD WILTON

Nothing like coming out of your bye week and suffering your first loss of the season, and that is exactly what the then 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs did on Sunday night in Denver. Now with Denver once again on the docket for next Sunday at Arrowhead, you watch as the Chiefs get caught in this "sandwich" game against the Chargers.

I am backing the Bolts as your comp play, as San Diego comes in riding a 3 game straight up and against the spread losing streak after getting off to a 4-3 start before their bye week.

The numbers look good for an underdog play here, as the Chargers did sweep the Chiefs last season, and have won 4 of the past 5 series meetings straight up against Kansas City.

Also consider that the Chiefs are just 2-3 against the spread at home this season, and you can see why I feel this game may well be decided by just a field goal tops.

Grab San Diego plus the points.

1* SAN DIEGO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

BRETT ATKINS

My free winner for Sunday is on the Tennessee Titans laying a single point in Oakland against the Raiders, in a game that might end up as close as the oddsmakers have prescribed.

Would you believe it if I told you both these teams still remain alive in the playoff race? Crazy, right? Well, despite their losing records, they're in the hunt for the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoffs. While the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are currently tied for that spot at 5-5, there are seven teams close behind with four wins - including the Raiders and Titans.

So which team is capable of pulling out the must-win here? Well, you see where I'm headed, cause my money is on the Titans. Though I liked them long before I knew this, it certainly helped my argument when I read the Raiders had ruled four players out of the game, including leading receiver Denarius Moore and star running back Darren McFadden. Also out will be defensive end Jason Hunter and strong safety Tyvon Branch.

Every little bit helps, but let's be real, the Titans are the right side no matter which way you slice it just based on their defensive unit. Tennessee has allowed an NFL-low seven touchdown passes by opponents, and just one over the past six weeks. Of course, that means opponents have been able to get it done on the ground. But even though the Titans have allowed 15 touchdowns rushing, including 10 in the past four games, the Raiders aren't going to be that effective without McFadden.

Fact is, since Tennessee has now lost five of six following its 3-1 start to the season, and plays the first of three straight on road today, it has no choice but to step up in this game.

Take the Titans here, as they roll to the win in Oaktown.

3* TENNESSEE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for Sunday is on the Over in the Tennessee/Oakland game, as I have a feeling we're going to see a high-scoring affair. With both teams still in the running for a playoff spot, and the Raiders coming in banged up on both sides of the ball, Tennessee will be all about getting right to the scoreboard upon kickoff.

The Titans have gone over in seven of their 10 games this season, so high-scoring games are not unusual. In six of their 10 games they've scored at least 20 points, and in their last three contests they've put up 28, 27 and 27 points. On the flipside, they've also allowed a lot of points, as they've given up at least 29 points in three of their last four games.

Oakland, despite being without its top receiver and running back, will have no choice but to respond offensively if the Titans force its hand. This is the first home game for the Raiders since a 49-20 loss to Philadelphia to start the month, but make note Oakland is 2-2 in its last four contests. It also comes in after a 28-23 win at Houston last week.

While the over has come in five of the last seven meetings, the Titans have gone over in four straight, while he Raiders have soared past the number in seven of their last November contests.

Take the high road with this game, as the Over cashes your ticket.

5* OVER Titans/Raiders

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

CRAIG DAVIS

Free play on the NY Giants over the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys received the kiss of death the other day when Jerry Jones announced that Jason Garrett would return in 2014 as the head coach. What?!?!?! The season isn't even over yet and he's already announcing Garrett, his puppet, is coming back? Does anyone else see anything wrong with this picture?

Meanwhile, all the Giants have done is win four straight games and actually put themselves right back in the playoff picture in the NFC East.

These two teams met in Week 1, with Dallas eeking out a 36-31 win, although they led by 18 at one point in the game. That was then and this is now... and now the Giants are starting to get healthy and starting to run the football better.

Now the Dallas Cowboys are starting to play like the basket case they have been for the past decade, and injuries haven't helped either. The defense keeps suffering injuries to key players, and you simply can't afford injuries when your defensive coordinator is Monte Kiffin.

Dallas has never really been much of a cold weather team, and it's going to be violently cold in the Meadowlands today. They aren't running the ball like Garrett and Bill Callahan promised they would, and Romo is going to be a sitting duck back in the pocket if the Cowboys think they can throw it 50 times.

Take the Giants over the Cowboys as your free play of the day.

3* N.Y. GIANTS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Sean Michaels

10-5 roll with comp plays with today's selection Baltimore (-3 1/2) at home against the Jets.

I'm not convinced Baltimore is that good, especially after blowing a 10-0 lead at Chicago in last Sunday's weather-delayed, overtime loss which was preceded by a lucky overtime win against the Bengals the previous week. But I know for certain the Jets are nothing special with Mr. Turnover, Geno Smith, at quarterback in his rookie year. Eight TD passes versus 16 interceptions and he's been sacked 34 times.

The Jets have been winning with their defense, but that won't be enough today at Baltimore against a Ravens' team that is in a must-win mode.

Baltimore is 4-0 ATS at home this season. I would go ahead and buy down the half-point on the Ravens if your price is between -3 and 4 1/2.

2♦ BALTIMORE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

EZWINNERS

San Diego Chargers +4

This is a real flat spot for Kansas City. The Chiefs got off to a red hot start this season and exceeded everyone's expectations with their 9-0 start, but their are coming off of their first loss of the season after losing their big showdown with the Broncos in Denver last week 23-13. To make matters worse, they host those same Broncos again next week in a rematch so there is a good chance that they will be looking ahead to that game instead of giving their full focus on the 4-6 Chargers. San Diego might only be 4-6, but this is a dangerous team. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is playing at a very high level and San Diego is 4th in the league in passing yards. The Chargers have lost a lot of close games and easily could be 8-2 at this point. This has become a must win for San Diego to have any shot of making the playoffs and Kansas City is just 1-11 against the spread as a division favorite since 2007. Take the points.

Arizona Cardinals -3

These two teams are going in opposite directions. Arizona is riding a three game winning streak and is playing well on both sides of the ball. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has nice chemistry with wide receiver Michael Floyd and the Arizona defense has held their last three opponents under 300 total yards of offense. The Colts are 7-3 on the season but are trending downward since their big win over Denver when they lost Reggie Wayne to injury. In their last three games they have ugly wins over Houston and Tennessee and were hammered by St. Louis and in all three of those games the Colts were outgained. The loss of wide receiver Reggie Wayne is huge for this Colts offense and with the way this Cardinals secondary covers will make it hard for Indy's receivers to get open. Also, current Arizona head coach Bruce Arians won coach of the year last season filling in for Indy's Chuck Pagano so he knows this Colts team very well. Lay the points.

New England Patriots +2

The Patriots find themselves as underdogs for the second straight week, but this time they are in the rare role as a home underdog at Foxboro. This will be only the second time in the last eleven years that the Patriots are catching points at home. Tom Brady and company still have to be pissed off over the ending to last weeks game where a flag that was thrown in the end zone that would have give the Pats one more play from the one yard line was picked up. This week Peyton Manning and company come to town along with ex patriot Wes Welker and you can be sure that Bill Belichick will be ready. Belechik is one of the best in the NFL at game planning and you can be sure that he will look at the tape of Denver's loss to Indianapolis and have an excellent game play. New England's offense got a boost last week in the running game with the return of running back Shane Vereen and Brady has all of his receivers healthy with the return of Gronk and Amendola to the lineup. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

River City Sharps

Rams -1
   
The Rams host the Bears in this NFC showdown and this situation sets up nicely for them coming off a bye, while Chicago had to go into OT last week in a win over Baltimore. Chicago’s defense is banged up and ranked 31st in the league against the run, having had a 100 yard rusher against them the last 3 in a row and last 4 out of 5. Since Zac Stacey took over as the starting RB, the St Louis ground game has stabilized and they will need to pound the Chicago defense today for Kellen Clemons to be effective. But it looks like they have started to get WR Tavon Austin integrated into the offense as he had 2 long TD strikes against Indy. Josh McCown, has played well filling in for QB Cutler, but he will face a stout St Louis front 4 who can get after the QB, especially on turf. We really like the Rams here, rested and  in a noisy dome at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

OC Dooley

Patriots +2.5

This is the second consecutive week where both the league and NBC will hit ratings gold.  It was one week ago on the primetime stage when Kansas City took their undefeated record into Denver and promptly failed to cover the spread as an underdog.  The situation for the Broncos this week is different as they are the ones having to travel and they will be facing an angry opponent as New England’s Monday Night clash at Carolina ended infamously with a controversial call in the endzone.  There is no questioning the fact that Denver is the NFL’s best “regular” season squad as they are on an amazing “20-1” overall tear, but that loss just happened to come against none other than Tom Brady and the Patriots.  Checking the history books when Brady has opposed Peyton Manning with the support of the HOME fans, Brady (6-2 record) has held the upper hand.  Arguably it is Brady that has more weapons this evening as Rob Gronkowski has returned to health along with other top receiving option Danny Amendola.  On the flipside now ex-Patriot Wes Welker has had to deal with concussion issues dating back to last Sunday.  The big weather story in the league today is high WINDS and severe COLD which will not benefit Peyton Manning (high ankle sprain) who has been dealing with a very painful injury for weeks.  While Denver is coming off consecutive “divisional” contests and are in for arguably a bit of an emotion letdown, New England when up against AFC West competition are striving to COVER SEVEN IN A ROW.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Wunderdog

Eastern Washington at UC Irvine
Pick: UC Irvine -7

UC Irvine (3-3) is hosting the tourney with a dynamite uptempo offense, 34th in the nation in points scored (87.3 ppg), and third in assists with 20.8 per game. Irvine shoots over 52% from the field because of a terrific frontcourt of 6-8 Will Davis II (13.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and 7-6 freshman Mamadou Ndiaye (9.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg). The Anteaters are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games, and face an Eastern Washington team a long way from home while playing its third game in three nights. They beat a struggling Long Island team yesterday, and had three starters play 31 or more minutes. The Eagles are 6-17-2 ATS following a win, and 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Their leading rebounder is 6-4 guard Drew Brandon, so this team will struggle up front against the home team. Play UC Irvine.

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