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Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Navy at San Jose State
The Midshipmen travel to San Jose State tonight and look to build on their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games against Mountain West Conference opponents. Navy is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (+2 1/2)

Game 115-116: Navy at San Jose State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 86.864; San Jose State 74.557
Dunkel Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+2 1/2); Over

NBA

San Antonio at Memphis
The Spurs hit the road tonight to face a Memphis team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. San Antonio is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1)

Game 501-502: Phoenix at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.529; Charlotte 118.421
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 4; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 113.154; Philadelphia 113.969
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+3); Over

Game 505-506: Washington at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.359; Toronto 124.970
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 11 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-4 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Indiana at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 125.081; Boston 112.300
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 185
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-8); Under

Game 509-510: Atlanta at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.830; Detroit 121.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Over

Game 511-512: San Antonio at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 127.702; Memphis 119.923
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 182
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 186
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1); Under

Game 513-514: Brooklyn at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 114.353; Minnesota 120.553
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 9; 201
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+9); Over

Game 515-516: Cleveland at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 110.626; New Orleans 120.190
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 7; 196
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Under

Game 517-518: Utah at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 110.043; Dallas 119.539
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 12; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+12); Over

Game 519-520: Chicago at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 118.318; Portland 124.777
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Golden State at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.304; LA Lakers 115.306
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 7; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 4 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-4 1/2); Under

NHL

Montreal at Washington
The Capitals play host to a Montreal team that is coming off a 6-2 win over Minnesota on Tuesday and is 1-5 in its last 6 games following a victory. Washington is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125)

Game 1-2: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.305; Pittsburgh 11.490
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+200); Over

Game 3-4: Montreal at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.550; Washington 12.108
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Under

Game 5-6: Florida at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.931; Calgary 11.433
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-150); Under

Game 7-8: Tampa Bay at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.637; Anaheim 10.723
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160); Over

Game 9-10: Columbus at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.464; Vancouver 11.934
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-210); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-210); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Connecticut vs. Indiana
The Huskies look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. Connecticut is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2)

Game 523-524: Pennsylvania at Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 49.972; Iowa 69.320
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+23 1/2)

Game 525-526: Delaware at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 52.611; Villanova 75.212
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-17 1/2)

Game 527-528: Towson at Kansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 56.350; Kansas 77.757
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-17 1/2)

Game 529-530: Santa Clara at Notre Dame (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 55.247; Notre Dame 71.111
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 16
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 14
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-14)

Game 531-532: Bradley at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 55.621; Arizona State 68.388
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 13
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 17
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+17)

Game 533-534: Kansas State vs. Georgetown (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 61.562; Georgetown 69.216
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 7 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5; 132
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5); Under

Game 535-536: Northeastern vs. Charlotte (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 50.454; Charlotte 58.225
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 8
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-3 1/2)

Game 537-538: Long Beach State vs. VCU (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 49.400; VCU 70.949
Dunkel Line: VCU by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-18 1/2)

Game 539-540: Florida State vs. Michigan (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 65.065; Michigan 73.781
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-3 1/2)

Game 541-542: Nebraska vs. UAB (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 58.555; UAB 62.543
Dunkel Line: UAB by 4
Vegas Line: UAB by 2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-2)

Game 543-544: Massachusetts vs. New Mexico (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 60.863; New Mexico 66.888
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 6
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-4)

Game 545-546: Georgia at Temple (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 58.791; Temple 62.561
Dunkel Line: Temple by 4
Vegas Line: Temple by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-1 1/2)

Game 547-548: Davidson at Clemson (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 59.837; Clemson 61.909
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+4)

Game 549-550: Northern Iowa vs. Loyola-Marymount (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 61.494; Loyola-Marymount 53.057
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 3
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-3)

Game 551-552: Marist vs. Maryland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 41.605; Maryland 67.109
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-18 1/2)

Game 553-554: Providence vs. Vanderbilt (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 67.423; Vanderbilt 59.978
Dunkel Line: Providence by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 5
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-5)

Game 555-556: Morgan State vs. LaSalle (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 49.934; LaSalle 58.287
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 10
Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (+10)

Game 557-558: Toledo vs. Stony Brook (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 56.308; Stony Brook 55.045
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Stony Brook by 1
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+1)

Game 559-560: Florida Atlantic at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 50.552; Detroit 54.150
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+6 1/2)

Game 561-562: Boston College vs. Washington (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 60.110; Washington 55.916
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 4
Vegas Line: Boston College by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-2 1/2)

Game 563-564: Indiana vs. Connecticut (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 68.313; Connecticut 72.642
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2)

Game 565-566: Idaho vs. North Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 50.309; North Texas 50.068
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: North Texas by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+2 1/2)

Game 567-568: Columbia at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 50.731; Portland 58.948
Dunkel Line: Portland by 8
Vegas Line: Portland by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2)

Game 569-570: Western Carolina vs. Niagara (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 47.875; Niagara 53.114
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 5
Vegas Line: Niagara by 1
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-1)

Game 571-572: SC Upstate at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SC Upstate 50.956; Kent State 58.525
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-5)

Game 573-574: Wright State vs. Houston Baptist (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 54.426; Houston Baptist 40.878
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston Baptist (+15 1/2)

Game 575-576: Southern Miss at South Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Miss 59.443; South Alabama 51.530
Dunkel Line: Southern Miss by 8
Vegas Line: Southern Miss by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Miss (-3 1/2)

Game 577-578: Austin Peay vs. CS-Northridge (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 44.264; CS-Northridge 46.750
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+5 1/2)

Game 579-580: Montana State at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 42.113; Central Michigan 46.784
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+6 1/2)

Game 581-582: SIU-Edwardsville vs. UC Davis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SIU-Edwardsville 40.539; UC Davis 45.823
Dunkel Line: UC Davis by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: UC Davis by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SIU-Edwardsville (+6 1/2)

Game 583-584: Loyola-Chicago at Portland State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 51.835; Portland State 50.640
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 1
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago 3
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+3)

Game 585-586: Seton Hall vs. Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 58.327; Oklahoma 65.491
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 7
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-1 1/2)

Game 587-588: Virginia Tech vs. Michigan State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 57.320; Michigan State 70.852
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+15 1/2)

Game 589-590: Boston U vs. Eastern Washington (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 53.336; Eastern Washington 44.119
Dunkel Line: Boston U by 9
Vegas Line: Boston U by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston U (-7 1/2)

Game 591-592: LIU-Brooklyn at UC-Irvine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LIU-Brooklyn 54.725; UC-Irvine 61.856
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 7
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 10
Dunkel Pick: LIU-Brooklyn (+10)

Game 593-594: Siena at Cornell (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.126; Cornell 42.960
Dunkel Line: Siena by 5
Vegas Line: Siena by 1
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1)

Game 595-596: Tennessee State at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 45.622; Tennessee 68.260
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 20
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-20)

Game 597-598: IUPUI at Northwestern (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 38.759; Northwestern 61.910
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 23
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 15
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-15)

Game 599-600: Monmouth at St. John's (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 43.094; St. John's 60.363
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 20
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+20)

Game 601-602: Northern Colorado at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.678; Colorado State 66.721
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-6)

Game 603-604: San Francisco at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 52.276; Montana 59.818
Dunkel Line: Montana by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-4 1/2)

Game 605-606: Chattanooga at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 42.573; Nevada 53.982
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 14
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+14)

Game 607-608: South Dakota at Wyoming (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 45.615; Wyoming 59.988
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-12 1/2)

Game 609-610: Morehead State at UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 52.045; UCLA 64.565
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+16 1/2)

Game 621-622: Chicago State at Illinois (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 45.332; Illinois 71.966
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-21 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies    
Play: San Antonio Spurs -1

The Spurs have bolted out of the game with no let downs this season at 10-1. Tonight make their way down to take on a Memphis team they have already beat this season and have beaten 11 of 13 times with 10 spread wins. The Spurs are 22-7 on Friday and have won 60 of 82 off a win of 10 or more long term. For our system in this one we will ties in a Friday specific system that is 12-2 for Friday night road favorites of 4 or less that scored 100 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more, vs an opponent that scored 90 or less as a road dog. Memphis is off back to back dog wins and historically teams returning home in this situation have not fared well. The Grizzlies are 0-3 to the spread at home when the total is 185 to 190 and have lost to the spread in their last 3 division games. We will back the Spurs in this one.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Brandon Shively

Navy vs. San Jose State    
Play: Navy +3

This will be a double revenge game for Navy and one they are in a good spot to win vs. a regressing San Jose State team. In last year's 12-0 loss, Navy had only 70 rushing yards. I can guarantee you that will not be the case tonight. Navy has outrushed all of their opponents this year except for Western Kentucky . They are licking their chops vs. a San Jose State team who is getting shed for 201 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush. San Jose State is 0-3 ATS this season when allowing over 200 yards rushing and Navy should easily eclipse that 200 yard barrier tonight. Navy has the #4 rushing attack in the nation going up against the #104 rushing defense of the Spartans and clearly this is a good matchup for Navy. The Midshipmen's rush defense is not the best (allowing 4.8 yards per rush), but San Jose St. has no legitimate running game. San Jose St relies on their aerial attack and Navy's secondary is only allowing 209 passing yards per game. Navy also carries many other advantages to this game. They are scoring 89% of the time in the red zone compared to 67% for San Jose St. They are also converting on 3rd downs at 49% compared to 38% for the SJSU. Navy is rolling right now behind quarterback Keenan Reynolds 19 touchdowns and San Jose State is on a reverse mission this year and after a loss tonight then next week vs. Fresno; it looks like the Spartans will not be bowling this year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

The Bucks are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia and off to a terrible start, 28th in scoring and rebounding. The Bucks are 10-25 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia has overachieved much of the year and is off a bad loss at home, but the 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. Look for a big effort by the home team and grab the short home price.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Doug Upstone

Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Play: Under 201

On Friday night, Play UNDER on all teams like Milwaukee, when the total is 200 or higher, after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game and they are winning 25 percent or less of their games on the season. The logic here is this is just a bad team without the resources to score consistently. In the past four years, this NBA system is a sharp 28-8, 77.8 percent.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

MTi Sports

Wizards / Raptors Under 193.5

Both of these teams are off wins in which they really took care of the ball and had high assist-to-turnover ratios.  This should lead to a low scoring affair here.  Toronto is 0-9 OU (-11.72 ppg) since Oct 29, 2010 as a favorite after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight and the Wizards are 0-9 OU (-12.83 ppg) as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

In addition, Washington is 0-7 OU (-15.64 ppg) as a road dog after a win on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line and 0-8 OU (-12.12 ppg) as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a win in which they had at least thirty assists.

Perhaps more importantly, Washington is 0-12 OU on the road when they are off a win in which John Wall was their high scorer. 

For the Raptors, we note that they are 0-6 OU (-13.25 ppg) at home after a road win when Amir Johnson scored fewer than 10 points last two games (focused on rebounding and defense).

In their last six games, the Wizards have two overs and four unders, but both overs were under the total by double-digits at the end of regulation, but went over in overtime.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Dave Essler

South Alabama +3.5

I think South Alabama wins this game. Obviously not intimidated at home by Southern Miss, having already played and almost beaten Texas in Austin. Lots of travel for Southern Miss, having played at DePaul then at North Dakota State and now in Alabama. Jaguars have been at home for ten days. Kicked the crap out of Detroit in their first game. They've been playing very good defense, and are actually a little bigger than Southern Miss. They'll take this game very seriously, and on a Friday night ought to have a decent crowd, and this is actually a little mini-tournament hosted by USA, who clearly wants to win it. Cashed the free one on Clemson last night and just trying to get the weekend started right.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Dave Mathews

Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -1

Two red hot teams face each other on Friday night. The Grizzlines have won four straight games, while San Antonio has won eight straight. The Spurs might be the most consistent team in sports. They've also dominated the Grizzlines having won five straight including a seven-point win earlier this year. The difference here is that the Spurs are a very deep team that can bring Manu Ginobili, Marco Belinelli, Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw off the bench to give them a spark. They all fit perfectly into Greg Popovich's system.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

DAVE COKIN

SO MISSISSIPPI VS SOUTH ALABAMA
PLAY: SO MISSISSIPPI -3.5

One of the keys to winning in November college basketball is isolating teams that are either underrated or overrated that are also able to retain under the radar status. I’ll try and capitalize on that variable tonight in a tournament matchup between Southern Mississippi and South Alabama.

The Golden Eagles are out of the gate 3-0, and they’re off a couple of decent road wins at DePaul and North Dakota State. Those opponents might not be anything resembling elite, but they’re also not horrible by any means, and the Golden Eagles did some good work in obtaining each victory.

It’s also what appears to be a favorable comparative clash tonight for Southern Miss. South Alabama is not as good as the two adversaries the Golden Eagles just defeated, and while the sample is still small, I’m seeing a clear edge in some peripheral categories I key on that favor Southern Mississippi.

I’m also giving a coaching edge to the road team here, and that could be vital in a game that projects as being at least reasonably close. Donnie Tyndall is a proven winner for the Golden Eagles, and he’s generally done very well in his type of game going back to his Morehead State games. Tyndall is a guy who I believe could be in line for a marquee job very shortly. What he accomplished at Morehead was pretty sensational, and he’s already a sizzling 30-10 at Southern Miss. Matthew Graves is the rookie head coach for the Jaguars, and he was a tremendous assistant at Butler under Brad Stevens. But he’s go no experience in this role, and we already saw one massive South Alabama meltdown at Texas about ten days ago. I expect Graves to do very well with this gig, but right now he could be on the wrong side of the chess board against a star like Tyndall.

This is likely a tight game, but I’ve got Southern Miss as an underrated squad. The oddsmakers don’t, however, which is why we’re seeing this number about a bucket higher than it power rates. That’s one of those indicators I like to jump on, and I’m in agreement with the guys who make the numbers here. Look for Southern Miss to keep the early season roll going with the win and cover tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

David Stall

Northern Iowa -2.5

A rough 1-2 start for Northern Iowa this year. The two losses however came on the road against Ohio and George Mason who are both roughly top 100 teams, so nothing to be terribly ashamed of. Jacobson has built Northern Iowa into one of the best mid majors in the nation as they've won 20 games or more in 5 straight seasons. This isn't one of his best teams, but I still see them as being good enough to win 18 to 20 games or so, including this one. Style wise it's the same Northern Iowa you've seen for years, slow it down, grind it out, and out execute you. Loyola Marymount is the polar opposite, they want to run as much as possible, but the Panthers just simply won't allow it. This game won't be as slow as Northern Iowa likes, but it'll be much slower than what LMU wants and is accustomed to. The Lions are 4-0 yes, but they haven't really played anyone and this will be a steep rise in competition. Sets up as a perfect spot for LMU to come back to earth a bit, and Northern Iowa to begin to get things back on track.

Michigan State -15

I really think we see a Sparty beat down here. They've come out flat in their last 2 games and I think Izzo has probably put these guys through the grinder the past few days. Against Columbia last week they never woke up, and were flat for the full 40. The result was a narrow win in a game that was close for about 39 minutes. Then the follow up was them being flat for about 31 minutes against Portland earlier this week before finally pulling away a bit late. You know a guy like Izzo isn't happy about that. I think we see a focused effort from the opening tip tomorrow and that Sparty just takes the Hokies to the woodshed. As far as VT goes, I'm still not buying in. Yes they are 3-1, but they just aren't that good. The win over WVU was somewhat impressive, but in my opinion they played over their head in that one. The other 3 games were a home loss against USC Upstate and wins over 2 junk teams. Talent wise they'll be in way over their heads here, and if you factor in that Sparty is due to play a focused 40 this one could get ugly.

Bradley +16.5

Going with the sandwich spot angle here for Arizona State. They just came off a nice road win over UNLV and have Marquette coming to town on Monday. Not sure how much we get from them in this one. Bradley isn't anything amazing, but they aren't pushovers either. They won 18 games last year and likely will win around that same amount this year. One thing Bradley has done very well this year is defend the 3 point line. Opponents are only shooting 22% from 3 against the Braves this year. Granted their opponents haven't been world beaters, 22% is still 22% and it's impressive. ASU fills it up at about 40% from 3 so Bradley's ability to control the Sun Devils from 3 very likely will determine who covers this one. One other fact that can't be overlooked with these new rules is that Bradley can shoot FT's. As a team they are around 75% on the year, which is pretty damn solid. In a game like this as a big dog they'll need all the free points they can get, and for the most part they should be able to knock them down. Combining the nice FT%, the solid 3 point defense, and the possible sluggish showing from ASU due to the sandwich spot and i've got enough to take my chances with 16.5 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Charlie Sports

Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The 4-8 Cleveland Cavaliers of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division will take on the 5-6 New Orleans Pelicans of the Western Conference Southwest division in 2013 NBA action. Cleveland is 0-4 Against The Spread their last 4 NBA games played on Friday's. The over is 6-1 the Pelicans last 7 NBA home games vs. A team with a losing road record. Cleveland is 4-9 ATS the last 13 meetings in New Orleans. Cleveland gets the road cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Bruce Marshall

Delaware vs Villanova
Pick: Delaware

With six of top seven scorers returning from last year’s rotation, and soph PG Ryan Arcidiacano now completely comfy in his role as on-court leader, Jay Wright’s Nova thinks it is headed back to the Big Dance. But U-Dee thinks it might be able to steal CAA crown and get to the Dance, too, with the entirety of last season’s potent 3-G rotation back in tact, led by prolific Devon Saddler (23 ppg) & Jarvis Threatt (17 ppg).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Cleveland

When there is turmoil within the trouble usually makes it way to the floor as well. After getting whacked in Minnesota last week, reports are that a “players only” meeting turned heated with finger pointing and a lot of screaming and yelling. Dion Waiters was right in the middle of it all he subsequently did not make the trip to Washington due to a “mysterious illness”. Waiters is steamed about losing his starting job to C.J. Miles, which is somewhat odd too since Waiters was coming on and playing much better. The Cavaliers are getting very little from their big men and No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett has been terrible (twice as many fouls as baskets). When Kyrie Irving has a big game, the Cavs usually compete but his big games almost always occur at home. Away from the Q, Cleveland has one win in seven games with that lone victory occurring in OT. The Cavs are a team in serious peril while the Pelicans are getting stronger.

Anthony Davis has a Michael Jordan and Larry Bird mentality in that he hates to lose more than anyone. Davis is scary out there. He’s the next big thing in the Association because he’s that good in every faucet of the game. After a slow start, the Pelicans are now 4-2 at home. They’ve played two teams from the East in New Orleans, Philadelphia and Charlotte and won them both by 21 and 37 points respectively. In his first game of the season, Ryan Anderson scored 26 points in 26 minutes off the bench to spark New Orleans' blowout of the 76ers. Another key reserve, Tyreke Evans, has produced back-to-back solid games after a rocky start with his new team. This is a strong club that is gaining momentum and they should have little trouble disposing of a Cavaliers team that has more than basketball on their minds right now. A wounded prey is an easy prey.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

SPORTS WAGERS

Florida +133 over CALGARY

The Flames cannot be in this price range because they are not good enough to be so. Calgary has lost 11 of their past 14 games. Their three wins over that stretch came against Los Angeles, Chicago and Winnipeg in which Calgary was outshot by that trio by a count of 121-82. One could argue that the Flames didn’t deserve to win any of those three games and could easily be on a 14-game losing streak right now. Calgary has zero regulation wins in the last 11 games and now they’re a -140 favorite? Calgary’s goaltenders have posted a miserable .883 save percentage and frankly, there is nothing appealing about spotting a tag with them because every time they take the ice, their chances of losing are greater than winning.

The Panthers are in a difficult spot tonight, playing their third road game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after a 4-1 loss in Edmonton last night. However, it was last night that this team was sluggish after wins in Colorado and Vancouver prior. In fact, prior to last night’s loss, the Panthers had played Anaheim, Minnesota, Colorado and Vancouver and their only loss over that span was a 3-2 setback in Minnesota. In four games this season in the second game of back-to-backs, the Panthers are 2-1-1 with only loss coming by one goal. This Florida team is on the verge of something good. They are an enthusiastic and talented bunch that is gaining more confidence with each passing week. Always beware of a young, talented team that starts winning some games in any sport and that’s precisely where the Panthers are at right now. A win tonight and they return home from their five-game trip with a 3-2 record and that’s plenty motivation to turn up the heat. Big time overlay here.   


Montreal +111 over WASHINGTON

OT included. The Canadiens are coming off their best win in some time. Losers in six of eight games, Montreal had the unenviable task of facing one of the hottest teams in the NHL in the Minnesota Wild. The Habs came out strong, had a good first period and took a 0-0 tie into the dressing room after one. Then came the onslaught with four unanswered goals in the second en route to a 6-2 win. A victory like that one is what often triggers a run, much like we’re seeing with the Oilers right now after they scored four unanswered goals in the third period to defeat Calgary last week. The Oilers are 2-0 since, outscoring the opposition 11-1. The Canadiens are as healthy as they’ve been all year. The Habs have allowed two goals or less in five straight games. Peter Budaj gets the call in net tonight and when he starts, the Canadiens usually win. The Habs’ backup is now 3-1 with a .945 save % and a 1.48 goals against average.

The Capitals are high on our fade list. Much like the Maple Leafs, Washington’s winning record is not sustainable. They have been outshot 87-38 over their past two games and have the third worst shot differential per game in the NHL. The Caps are without three of their top defensemen in Mike Green, John Erkskine and Jack Hillen, although Green may suit up tonight. Still, these Caps are extremely weak on the back end and with their current roster they are as sure to regress in the standings as any team in the NHL. It’s also worth noting that the Caps play in Toronto tomorrow night on Hockey Night in Canada’s featured game and we all know how much OV loves the spotlight.

Pass CFB & CBB

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LT Profits

SIU-Edwardsville vs UC Davis
Pick: UC Davis -6.5

The UC Davis Aggies improved nicely going from 5-26 two years ago to 14-17 including 9-9 in Big West play last year, and although they are 1-2 so far, they lost two tough true road games at Utah and Portland. They still have four players averaging double-digits, including highly regarded freshman recruit Brynton Lemar, who may already be the team’s go-to guy as he has been used on over 28 percent of the team’s possessions. He joins the club’s top two scorers from last year including stat-filler Corey Hawkins, who averaged 20.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.5 steals. Meanwhile the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars are predicted to finish dead last in the weak Ohio Valley Conference and it is easy to see why as they are ranked 319th in offensive efficiency and 316th in defensive efficiency after three games. UC Davis is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a straight up loss by more than 20 points.


Navy vs San Jose State
Pick: Navy +2.5

Sometimes in football, the way teams match up is more important than pure talent, and such is the case when the Navy Midshipmen visit the San Jose Spartans. San Jose State may have better recruits, but Navy is fifth in the nation in rushing at an impressive 311.0 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry, and it is facing a 102nd ranked San Jose rushing defense allowing a disturbing 201.6 rushing yards per game! On the opposite side, the Spartans are most certainly a passing team with David Fales under center as the team is ranked 11th in the country in passing offense at 325.4 aerial yards per game, but defending the pass is the strength of the Navy defense as the Middies are a nice 27th vs. the pass compared to 92nd vs. the run. Navy is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. the Mountain West Conference.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Wunderdog

South Dakota at Wyoming
Pick: Wyoming -14

The Wyoming Cowboys have a unique home court advantage as they play at a high altitude. Over the years they certainly have taken advantage of that, especially against a team that is not used to playing here. That is especially true against a team they are better and deeper than. South Dakota has just two players that average over 7.5 points per game, and they are certainly fitting the profile of a team that Wyoming takes out at home. The Cowboys are 3-0 here already to start the season, and opened the out-of-conference schedule here 9-0 last season. That means they are 12-0 out of conference to start the season since last year, covering all but one of them. Lay the points and back the home team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Larry Ness

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

The Spurs are 10-1, tied with the Pacers for the NBA’s best record and San Antonio’s eight-game winning streak matches that of the Blazers, for the longest active run. The Spurs have won their last eight games, by a margin of 12.6 PPG. This visit to Memphis is San Antonio's first game here since completing a four-game sweep of the Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals. Including that series and a 101-94 win in this season's opener in San Antonio, the Spurs have taken 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Grizzlies, while limiting Memphis to 40.5 percent from the floor.

That leaves Memphis with a rather daunting challenge but after a slow start, Memphis has found its groove, winning all four games of a just-completed four-game West Coast swing. The Grizzlies bested the Lakers and Clippers at Staples Center, the Kings in Sacramento and the Warriors in Oakland, while holding those teams to an average of 88.8 PPG (includes holding Golden St to just 81 points in an OT game!). "New coach, new offense ... we just have to get used to it," point guard Mike Conley said after Wednesday's 88-81 overtime win over the Warriors. "Now we've been able to figure it out."

Conley’s been outstanding (18.8-5.5 APG) plus Memphis still owns arguably the NBA’s best one-two “inside punch” of Gasol (17.2-7.5) and Randolph (16.5-9.4). I don’t usually like to buck the Spurs but Memphis is LONG overdue for a win against San Antonio and this seems like the perfect spot!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Rickie Robbins

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers    
Play: Golden State Warriors -5

The Golden State Warriors hope to have Stephen Curry back in the lineup tonight when they take on the Los Angeles Lakers. The Warriors were looking for their fifth straight victory on Wednesday but they had to play without Stephen Curry who sat out with a mild concussion and just couldn't get over the line against the Grizzlies. Klay Thompson led the team with 21 points, while David Lee added 18 points and eight rebounds, but the Warriors weren't quite the same with Andre Iguodala filling in at point guard who finished with 14 assists but shot just three of 14 from the field for seven points. On the defensive end, they will be happy that they held the Grizzlies to 38.6 percent shooting for the game, but they fell short in key moments of the game thanks to a couple of key clutch shots from Teyshaun Prince and Mike Conley who delivered in overtime. With the loss, the Warriors fall to 8-4 on the season and 5-1 at home.

Meanwhile, the Lakers have been tampering with their starting lineups all season and while they still haven't settled on one yet, they can be sure that Jordan Hill will be a lock, especially after his career night of 24 points and 17 rebounds against the Pistons on Sunday. Jodie Meeks and Nick Young added 19 points apiece and Steve Blake had nine points and 16 assists as the Lakers cruised to a 114-99 win at home to improve to 5-7 overall and 4-3 at home. In injury news, Kobe Bryant returned to practice this week for LA so his return is surely just around the corner now.

In ATS trends, the Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall, while the Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.

Head to head, the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall and the over is 4-0 in the last four.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 22

Dave Price

Boston Celtics +8

Indiana is being overvalued due to its hot start. You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games when they're matched up against a team that has covered the number in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games. That's because doing so has produced a 66-35 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have lost on average, but only by 2.6 points. This system tightens up to an eye-popping 24-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Boston is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. It has also won 9 of the last 10 at home in the series. Take the points as Boston keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

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