Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Lee Williams

Kansas State vs. Texas Tech    
Play: Kansas State +3

These 2 teams are fairly equal talent wise and after running off 7 straight wins Tech is suddenly off losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma.St. KSU losses have been to quality opposition and they played close in those games, including Baylor.We feel KSU and points is solid value.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Steve Janus

Florida Gators -10

Without starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels the Commodores managed to score just 24-points last week against a Texas A&M defense that had allowed at least 33 points in each of their previous four SEC games. That includes 33-points against an Arkansas team that has scored a combined 34 points in their other four conference games. I have a hard time seeing Vanderbilt scoring enough to cover this double-digit spread on the road against the Gators. Florida is limited offensively, but their defense ranks 8th in the country, giving up just 290.7 ypg. Gators should have excellent field position on most drives and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the defense didn't help the offense out with a couple of big turnovers.

Florida was a 9.5-point favorite at Vanderbilt last year and went on to win 31-17. Now we get them at basically the same line at home and in desperate need of a win. At 4-4, the Gators need to win two of their final four games to become bowl eligible. With a road game at South Carolina and home game against Florida State left on the schedule, this game becomes one Florida absolutely has to have.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Bill Biles

Penn State vs. Minnesota    
Play: Minnesota -2½

Minnesota plays better at home, and Penn State struggles on the road. Minnesota will force a couple of turnovers, and they will capitalize on them. Minnesota will use their balanced attack to keep the mediocre Penn State defense from getting off the field.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Alex Smart

SMU vs. Cincinnati
Play: Over 63½

SMUs QB Garret Gilbert leads nation in total offense at 408 yards per game and is third in passing yards at 393. He is averaging 501 yards of total offense over past three games. The Mustangs passing offense, is ranked fifth nationally at 381 yards per game. Im betting Cincinnatis viable secondary has its hand full this week. On the flip side, SMUs defense is miserable and porous (allowing 42 ppg) and the Bearcats are the kind of team that have the offensive weapons to pound pourous stop units mercilessly as they are averaging 34 PPG. This has the making of a track meet!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Brandon Shively

Arizona State vs. Utah    
Play: Utah +7

Arizona State comes into this game this afternoon in a tough spot as they have double revenge games on deck vs. Oregon St and UCLA and considering that Utah has some revenge on their mind as well from last year's 37-7 to Arizona State. Since joining the Pac 12, Utah has lost both matchups to Arizona State so this makes it a double revenge game and one the seniors will be hungry for. Utah has their best offense now since joining the Pac 12 and should be nice and refreshed coming off a week of rest. Utah already beat Stanford at home and lost to UCLA by only 7 but because of 6 interceptions by quarterback Wilson or they would have won that game also.
Arizona State has a 3-14 ATS mark in the 2nd of B2B road games and if you match that with Utah's 12-4-1 ATS mark as a home dog of 7 or more points, this game has upset written all over it. Also note that Co-OC for Utah is former Arizona St HC Dennis Erickson and given the Utes an extra week to prepare, I feel Erickson has an advantage tonight.
On defense I like the Utah defense also. I saw them slow down UCLA and Stanford and have no doubt they will do it again tonight. Historically, Utah is tough to beat at home, and the trends suppoer it.

• Utes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• Utes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Utes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a bye week.

Factor that in with the mysterious struggles that Arizona State has on field turf (1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games) and this is a live home dog that will be bringing home the bacon this afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Rob Vinciletti

Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan    
Play: Western Michigan -2½

This game is a battle of 2 pathetic Mac conference schools who both play little or no defense. In game 10 when we have two teams that have one exact win and one of the teams is off a win that team has lost just one to the spread long term. The Visitor in this series has covered 8 of 11. Eastern Michigan has the 3rd worst defense in the country and Western Michigan has double revenge Western Michigan has been more competitive and did emerge with a road dog win in their last game. Today they make the short trip into Eastern Michigan to take on an Eagles squad that has allowed 42+ points in 6 straight games. Perhaps the biggest reason we will Play Against Eastern Michigan is due to the Power angle Below that shows Eastern Michigan as a terrible 1-18 straight up and to the spread at home off a road loss. Look for Western Michigan to take this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Eddie J

Vanderbilt vs Florida
Pick: Florida

The Gators look to avoid a 4 game losing streak vs Vandy. Vandy may be the right opponenet as the Gators play at the swamp for the first time since Oct.5. Florida has beat Vandy 22 straight and 17 straight at home. The L 10 meetings Florida has won by 18.7 PPG. In the 3 games at the swamp this year Florida has won by 17 PPG. With a backup QB for Vandy vs a vaunted Defense it's a perfect storm to take the Gators.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Jim Feist

Iowa vs Purdue
Pick: Iowa

The Iowa Hawkeyes (5-4 SU/5-4 ATS) have been playing well, on a 5-2 ATS run. They've hit a rough patch the last month because the schedule has been brutal, but now they face a cupcake team and need one more win to clinch a bowl. The offense is balanced, with a strong ground attack and the defense has been great allowing 19 ppg (17th in the nation). They face a bad Purdue team this week and the Hawkeyes are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a S.U. loss. They face a punchless Purdue squad that is 1-4 at home, averaging 11.5 ppg for the year on offense while allowing 37.1 ppg! The Boilermakers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Their only win was against Indiana State (20-14) as a 17.5 favorite! Their two QBs have combined for 7 TDs, 11 INTs and they've been outscore 70-0 the last two games!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

AC Dinero

Utah State vs. UNLV
Play: UNLV +16

This is more of a play against Utah St than it is on UNLV. Even though Utah St has the edge in just about all statistical categories, that was with their starting QB. But he is out for the year, so I am skeptical about this team laying 2 TD's on the road to a team having a decent season, warts and all, particularly in stopping the run. However, this team has a chance to make a bowl game behind a solid running game (4.5 ypc) and a pretty good pass defense that gives up just 6.4 ypc in the pass happy MWC. Look for the Runnin Rebels to hang tough in this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Tony Karpinski

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida -6.5

This week’s free pick is Miami over Virginia Tech as they win by 10 points or more I predict. Virginia Tech comes in as the typical middling team struggling to keep their head above waters, but not bad enough to be drowning, in the tough ACC. Virginia Tech doesn’t move the ball in the air well at all, which is a massive concern. They are as well very turnover prone. Virginia Tech does base its team off of a solid defense; and they don’t allow a lot of big plays. Miami comes in typically lighting up teams for 36/game, ought to likely do the same against Virginia Tech. Power running is key for Miami as well with big runs and with TD vulture Dallas Crawford. Miami will definitely want to make a case after last week’s humiliating blowout loss to FSU, 41-14. Tight game, Tech will play tough, but Miami closely clears the numbers. Va. Tech is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Joe Gavazzi

North Carolina St. at Duke
Play: Duke 9

First year NC St. HC Doeren, former HC at N. Illinois, is not used to these kinds of struggles. While his former team is again averaging over 44 PPG with an all-league QB, Doeren’s new team the Wolfpack, is struggling at 23 PPG with ample problems at the signal caller position. Last week, NC St. blew a 10-0 lead against rival NC in an eventual 27-19 loss. As a result, it is quite unusual to see a 3-5 SU ATS Wolfpack on a 4 game losing streak, looking up in the standings at 6-2 SU ATS Duke who is on a 4 game winning streak. The Blue Devils last victory clinched a Bowl invitation with a 13-10 win at VA Tech. With 2 weeks to rest, Duke is plenty pumped to break a 6 game series stranglehold by State and extend their record of 6-1 ATS as home chalk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Red Dog Sports

Philadelphia vs. Cleveland
Play: Under 203½

Take the under as these two played last night and scored only 173 points. I expect them to play another low scoring game on Saturday night going back to back with tired legs after traveling from Philadelphia to Cleveland.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Dave Essler

Virginia Tech +7

There's plenty of "7"'s still out there, or buy the hook. Miami didn't just lose to FSU, they were physically abused. The Hokies are not the team you want next, not when they're an upset team after having lost two straight. I remember well how badly the 'Canes struggled to move the ball against Florida, escaping with a win because of the Gators' ineptness. Without their star RB Miami is more than likely going to have to rely more on Morris, and against the VT defense that's going to be a problem. In a game that may not see many points, there's huge value to touchdown here. Plus, there's payback from an 18 point loss to the 'Canes last season. VT still has a shot at the ACC Coastal if they win this game, and this is simply nothing more than a last possession FG game, IMO.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Charlie Scott

BYU vs. Wisconsin
Play: BYU +8.5

BYU has the defense and playmakers on offense to matchup physically with Wisconsin and won't be pushed around by Wisconsin. BYU is a rare Independent which basically means the Mormons get to keep all the money they make and don't have to share their revenue with other Conference Schools. Meanwhile Wisconsin is headed down the stretch of another Big 10 Regular season. Some key starters suffered injuries for Wisconsin last week vs Iowa. In the middle of Big 10 Regular season, I just can't see Wisconsin being fired up and concerned about covering this spread. While for the Mormons this constitutes a Big game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Bruce Marshall

BYU vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Over

Since a pair of losses in September, Bronco Mendenhall has opened up the BYU offense for multi-dimensional soph QB Taysom Hill, with some very positive results. Bottom line is that Cougar offense now running off plays in a hurry...more possessions and more snaps can now be expected in BYU games.  This one will thus bear little resemblance to the last time Mendenhall and Gary Andersen-coached teams faced off when the latter was still at Utah State a year ago (6-3 Cougar win).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Harry Bondi

MISSOURI (-13.5) over Kentucky

We used Missouri (-10) over Tennessee, 31-3, last week as our 10-Star “Lock of the Year” and we’ll go back to well with them again here. Kentucky is a very disappointing 2-6 overall and 0-4 in the SEC and has packed it in for the season. Meanwhile, the surging Tigers still have a shot at an SEC title so they won’t be looking past this game. The one chink in Missouri’s armor this year is its pass defense, but Kentucky won’t be able to take full advantage since two of its best receivers will be on the sidelines for this game. Kentucky has always struggled vs. mobile QBs and no matter who starts behind center for Missouri – either James Franklin or Maty Mauck – the Wildcats will have to deal with a multiple-threat quarterback. Missouri is averaging 45 points per game on the road, where it is 3-0 ATS this season, while Kentucky is just 7-15 ATS as a dog, including 1-11 ATS when catching double digits. Rout!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Charlie Sports

BYU +9

The 6-2 BYU Cougars who are independent will take on the 6-2 Wisconsin Badgers of the Big Ten Leaders division in 2013 NCAA Football action. BYU has won their last 5 straight up and are 4-1 Against The Spread their last 5 NCAA Football games. Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 overall. The Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 vs. A team with a winning record. BYU gets the road cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Bob Balfe

Cincinnati -7

SMU lost a lot of starters from last year and I think they have done a pretty good job. Cincinnati has a lot of experience on both sides of the ball and I don't want to say they are hot dogging it, but they have not played up to their potential this year. SMU has a pretty lousy defense so I expect Cincinnati to put up a lot of points at home today. Take Cincinnati.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Wunderdog

UAB at Marshall
Pick:Marshall -24

Outside of lopsided losses to LSU and Vanderbilt - both of the SEC, the UAB Blazers have played a rather light schedule. The problem is that they have gone 2-6 on the season, with just one of the wins was vs. FBS competition. That win came at the expense of Florida International who is 1-7 on the season, and it was by a meager 3 points. This team is 3 points away from being winless against FBS competition. Despite the rather cupcake-laden schedule, UAB has allowed 24 or more points to every team they have faced, so Marshall should get a lot of opportunities here. The Herd have been scoring at a high rate lately, averaging 55 points per game in their last two. And, they have gone for 49 or more points four times on the season and they should be able to add one to that. The Blazers have failed to cover each of their last four on the road, while the Herd is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four at home. Lay the bundle, and play on Marshall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

Arkansas Gambler

Iowa St +7.5

The Horned Frogs of Texas Christian are in a tight spot needed to win their last 3 games to be bowl eligible once again for head coach Gary Patterson. Meanwhile, Iowa State is playing for pride and pride alone with a nasty 1-7 record. Here is why I’m backing the Cyclones in this game. They are one of those teams that isn’t very good, but they go all out in front of the home crowd. Against two pass heavy teams Texas and Oklahoma State, the Cyclones only allowed 244 yards and 78, respectively. TCU is dealing with the drama of players leaving the team for personal reasons, returning, then others leaving. Their top defensive player, and one of the best in nation, cornerback Jason Verrett is expected to be banged up and may miss this game. Iowa State comes home for only the 2nd time in 5 weeks, and they welcome it. TCU is 7-17 ATS as a favorite the last 3 years, including 1-5 ATS this season. I do expect TCU to squeak it out, but not without a scare.


Arizona -1.5

I LOVE this pick, and hate we missed out on the pick em’ earlier in the week, but I still see major value here. This is a major revenge game for the Arizona Wildcats after getting embarrassed in Los Angeles, 66-10 last year. Arizona are winners of three-straight games and come into this home game with a lot of momentum. Running back Ka’Deem Carey has already exceeded 1,000 yards on the ground with 10 touchdowns through only seven games! UCLA is giving up almost four yards per rush, and ranks 73rd in the nation in rush defense. The Bruins are banged up injury wise after facing Stanford, then Oregon, before taking on Colorado. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in last 6 of this series, while the home teams has covering 8 of the last 10 in this series. I like the Wildcats.


Auburn -7

Let’s be honest, this game is going to be a blowout! Tennessee has played teams very tough at home this season, but neither South Carolina nor Georgia have this hurry-up style office that Auburn is bringing in. The closest thing the Vols have faced to this would be Oregon early on in the season, which trounced Tennessee 59-14. Tennessee is starting a freshman QB for the second-game and he showed no confidence last week against Missouri. Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn has this team focused as they have gone into Texas A&M and Arkansas to pull outright wins, and covers. In fact, the Tigers have covered six-straight games. I don’t know how the spread is under 10 or more points, but I’ll take it. This game may be close early on, but much like the Missouri game, the Volunteers won’t be able to keep up with Auburn’s scoring. To be safe, if your book has -7.5, I would buy down.

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