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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 7

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 7

WASHINGTON (3 - 5) at MINNESOTA (1 - 7) - 11/7/2013, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 53-82 ATS (-37.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Washington

Washington at Minnesota
Washington: 53-82 ATS (-37.2 Units) as a favorite
Minnesota: 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

Washington @ Minnesota

The Redskins are 14-7 ATS in games where the line is 3 points or less and 6-3 ATS on turf, but they’re also 1-5 ATS versus NFC opponents, 5-12 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less and 13-28-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record. Minnesota comes in 28-37 ATS versus losing teams the second half of the season, but 16-9 ATS as an underdog and 9-0 ATS versus NFC East opponents off back to back losses. Note in this series that the underdog is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings.

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NFL Week 10

Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (1-7) —
Minnesota hasn’t won since England trip, losing last four games in row by average score of 32-15; they seem to have settled on Ponder at QB and played better last week, losing 27-23 (+9) at Dallas, running ball for 169 yards, after averaging 72 ypg in previous three games. Vikings are 0-3 at home, losing by 4-25-13 points while allowing 36.7 ppg. Redskins allowed 35.3 ppg in splitting last four games; they beat Chargers in OT last week, but are 1-3 on road, with only win at Oakland- their road losses are by 18-15-24 points. Vikings have only two takeaways (-5) in last four games, after having 12 (+2) in first four. Teams split last six series meetings, with average total of 61.5 in last two; Redskins won five of last six visits here, but this is their first since ’07. Redskins lost 31-16 at Dallas in only previous game on carpet this season. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC North teams are 6-12-1 vs spread out of division, 2-6-1 at home. Last three Washington games and seven of eight Viking games went over the total.

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Redskins at Vikings
By Kevin Rogers

Two teams that made surprising playoff runs last season are struggling to just get to .500 as the Redskins and Vikings meet up Thursday night in Minnesota. Washington began last season slow with a 3-6 start before winning its final seven games to claim the NFC East championship. This season, the Redskins own a 3-5 record, but are still hanging around in the division race after a home overtime triumph on Sunday.

Washington outlasted San Diego, 30-24 to cash as slim one-point favorites thanks to a four-yard touchdown run by Darrel Young, the third score of the day for the fullback. The Redskins ran all over the Chargers' defense for 209 yards, while all four rushing touchdowns came from less than five yards out. Robert Griffin III bounced back from a rough outing at Denver last week to throw for 291 yards, but was responsible for a tipped interception recovered in the end zone by the Chargers.

The Vikings had opportunities to win in road defeats at Detroit and Chicago early in the season and blew another chance this past Sunday at Dallas. Minnesota overcame a 10-point deficit in the second half to take a 23-20 lead, but the Cowboys rallied for a touchdown in the final minute to shock the Vikings, 27-23. The Vikings managed to cover as 10-point road underdogs, while Adrian Peterson ran all over the Dallas defense for 140 yards and a bruising 11-yard touchdown. However, Minnesota now owns an 0-4 record on the highway, in spite of a 3-1 ATS mark away from Mall of America Field.
These teams met up in D.C. last October, as the Redskins outlasted the Vikings, 38-26. The defining moment of this contest was a 76-yard touchdown scamper by Griffin in the final three minutes to put away the victory and a cover as one-point home 'dogs. Griffin ran for two scores and threw for another, while Christian Ponder was intercepted twice, including one returned for a touchdown. This is just Washington's second visit to Minneapolis since 1999, as the two clubs have split the last six meetings in this span. handicapper Antony Dinero says to keep an eye out for Minnesota, "Peterson looks about as healthy as he has all season, so if the Vikings can get anything out of their passing game and special teams, they'll be a dangerous spoiler the rest of the way. Because no one has pulled away in the NFC East, Washington remains a contender, especially if Griffin has turned the corner physically. Alfred Morris and Roy Helu have revived the running game, setting the stage for a Thursday night game that may be more entertaining than we'd expect at face value from two sub-.500 teams."

Minnesota has won just once in four home games, but that victory came in London against Pittsburgh as the Vikings were listed as the "home" team. In the three contests played at Mall of America Field, the Vikings have allowed at least 31 points in losses to the Browns, Panthers, and Packers, while cashing the 'over' all three times. Since 2011, the Vikings are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog (excluded the London game), including three outright wins as a 'dog of 3 ½ points or less.

Washington finished last season with a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record away from FedEx Field, but the Redskins have stumbled to a 1-3 SU/ATS on the road in 2013. The lone victory for Mike Shanahan's team did come in the road favorite role in Week 4 at Oakland, beating the Raiders, 24-14 as three-point 'chalk.'

From a totals perspective, the Vikings have hit the 'over' in six of eight games, while falling short of an 'over' in the Dallas loss by one point. This is the second total above 50 for Minnesota this season, as the Vikings have seen just three totals of 50 or higher since the start of the 2010 campaign. Washington is 5-3 to the 'over' through eight games, including three consecutive 'overs' against San Diego, Chicago, and Denver.

The Redskins are listed as 2 ½-point road favorites at most spots, while the total sits between 50 and 50 ½. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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Thursday Night Football Betting: Redskins at Vikings

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 51)

The Washington Redskins may have salvaged their season with a pulsating overtime victory on Sunday, but they cannot afford a misstep when they visit the sliding Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. The Redskins won their final seven games to win the NFC East title in 2012 and hope Sunday's dramatic win fuels another playoff run. “The way we won the game, I think it can be a turning point for us," quarterback Robert Griffin III said. "It’s definitely a bonding experience."

Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning overtime, but Minnesota was unable to do the same in Dallas and allowed the Cowboys to drive 90 yards for the winning touchdown in a 27-23 defeat. It marked the fourth consecutive loss for the Vikings, leading to some grousing from the players regarding the coaching staff. "There’s some things that are going on internally that are not allowing us to close out games," defensive end Brian Robison said.

LINE: Washington opened as a 1-point road favorite and has moved as high as -2.5 at some books. The total has climbed from 48 to 50.5 points.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+2.5) - Vikings (+7.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Vikings +2.0

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-5, 3-5 ATS): Although Griffin received much of the credit for the team's success in his rookie campaign, much of last season's success hinged on a powerful ground game led by Alfred Morris, who rumbled for a season-high 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Chargers. Griffin threw for 291 yards and completed a season-high 71.9 percent (23-of-32) of his passes in the most well-rounded offensive performance of the season. "Whenever we’ve been on throughout the season, we’ve done a better job of just mixing things up," Griffin said.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-7, 3-5 ATS): Minnesota has already had three different quarterbacks start this season, but Christian Ponder will be under center for a third consecutive game. Ponder was solid against the Cowboys, although he will be without one of his favorite targets in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who suffered a fractured foot against Dallas and is expected to be sidelined for about a month. Running back Adrian Peterson, who had been dealing with a hamstring issue for weeks, tied his season high with 140 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's defeat.


* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in Redskins last seven road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Vikings last five home games.


1. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings - all in Washington - but the Redskins prevailed 38-26 last season.

2. Griffin ran for a career-high 138 yards in last season's matchup with the Vikings.

3. Minnesota and Washington rank 30th and 31st in points allowed at 31.5 and 31.6 points, respectively.

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NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings

Vikings look to avoid a fifth straight defeat when they host Redskins Thursday night. The Vikings, playing at home on national television is a powerful motivator to avoid getting embarrassed. However, a poor pass defense shredded for 290.3 yards/game and not so sturdy run stop unit giving up 104.9 yards/game in allowing 31.5 points/contest the Boat-Men's ship could sink further into the bottom of the NFC North. Meanwhile, Redskins full of momentum from a dramatic victory this past week will be looking to notch their first back-2-back victories on the campaign. But, like Vikings the Redskins have their own issues on the defensive side of the ball surrendering 31.6 PPG on 398.8 total yards split between 282.1 passing, 116.6 rushing yards/game. Two defensively challenged squads that can't be trusted the easier choice would be an 'Over' play. Our NFL database agrees - The total has gone 'Over' in 6 of Vikings' 8 games including 4-0 O/U at home. The total has gone 'Over' in five of Redskins' last seven road games. The database also chips in games with a home line of .5 to 2.5 and a total =>49.0 have almost been a given posting a 4-2 O/U mark. Final tid-bit, Thursday night affairs are 6-2-1 O/U this season.

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Skins look to snap W-L trend

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-5) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-7) Line & Total: Washington -2.5 (-120) & 49
Opening Line & Total: Washington -3 & 50

The Vikings try to snap a four-game losing skid when they face the roller-coaster Redskins for the fourth straight year on Thursday.

Washington has alternated losses and wins in each of the past six games (both SU and ATS), rolling up 500 total yards in last week’s 30-24 overtime victory versus the Chargers. Minnesota's 27-23 loss in Dallas last week, in which TE Kyle Rudolph broke his foot, drops the club to 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS) on U.S. soil this year. Although Minnesota is happy to return home, its defense is allowing 36.7 PPG and 413 total YPG at Mall of America Field.

This series is 5-5 (SU and ATS) since 1992, with the Redskins prevailing 38-26 last year behind QB Robert Griffin III, who threw for 182 yards and touchdown and ran for 138 yards and 2 TD. Both teams have some favorable trends, as Washington is 10-2 ATS (83%) versus poor passing defenses (61% completion pct. or worse) in the past two seasons, while the Vikings are hoping this trend stays true to form: Road favorites with 130+ rushing YPG, after outrushing an opponent by 100+ yards, are only 70-117 ATS (37%) since 1983.

Washington's ground game has been outstanding over the past four games with 187 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC. RB Alfred Morris has piled up 390 yards on 5.1 YPC over this stretch, including 121 yards and a touchdown in last week's overtime win versus the Chargers. QB Robert Griffin's III had a big throwing day in Week 9 when he completed 23-of-32 passes (72%) for 291 yards (9.1 YPA), but he also tossed an interception with no touchdowns, bringing him to 9 TD and 9 INT for the season. Last year Griffin threw 20 TD passes with only five picks. But because of the Redskins' punishing ground game (5.2 YPC, 2nd in NFL), they have been outstanding both in third down situations (44.5% conversions, 4th in NFL) and in the red zone (65.4% efficiency, 3rd in NFL).

Winning the turnover differential has been vital to this Redskins team, which has a minus-4 TO margin in its five losses, but a +2 TO margin in its three victories. But this team isn't going anywhere unless the defense improves dramatically. Washington has allowed 31.6 PPG (2nd-worst in NFL) and 399 total YPG (3rd-worst in league). The run defense has been better recently though, allowing just 89 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC over the past six games.

Minnesota will once again start Christian Ponder under center, as he had some big moments in the near upset of heavily favored Dallas last week. He completed 68% of his passes for 236 yards and 2 TD (1 rushing, 1 passing), but he also committed two turnovers, including a third-quarter fumble in his own end zone that the Cowboys recovered for a touchdown. Ponder also had his ups and downs in last year's meeting with the Redskins, completing 35-of-52 throws (67.3%) for 352 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, but he also tossed a couple of picks, including one that was returned for a score.

For the Vikings to get back on track, they have to keep giving the ball to reigning league MVP, RB Adrian Peterson. After averaging just 50 rushing YPG over three straight losses, Peterson rumbled for 140 yards on 25 carries (5.6 YPC) in last week's defeat. He rushed for a solid 79 yards on 17 carries (4.7 YPC) in last year's loss in Washington. The Minnesota defense has not played well by any stretch, but the unit has been on the field for a 34:18, which is the second-longest time of any NFL team. This has led to 395 total YPG allowed (4th-most in league).

The Vikings have the NFL's worst defense on third downs (49.2%), which has led to the team allowing the third-most points in the league at 31.5 per game. The lack of a consistent pass rush (17 sacks) has been unable to help generate turnovers. The Vikings started out the season with 12 takeaways in four games, but they have forced just two turnovers combined over the past four contests. They have also been decimated by injuries, especially in the secondary where S Harrison Smith (toe) is on short-term IR, S Jamarca Sanford (groin) is doubtful, and CBs Chris Cook (hip) and Xavier Rhodes (leg) are both questionable for this week.

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