Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks +7

The Dallas Mavericks have been underrated to open the 2013 season. That is evident by their 3-1 record against the spread. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been overrated to open the 2013 campaign with an 0-3 ATS mark thus far. I believe both to be true heading into this contest tonight with Dallas lacking respect from oddsmakers as a 7-point dog.

I love some of the quiet moves the Mavericks made this offseason to improve their team. Monta Ellis has been out to prove something this year, and he is off to a tremendous start. Ellis is averaging 25.0 points and 5.0 assists on 53.1% shooting. He has taken a ton of pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki, who is scoring 20.2 points per game.

Oklahoma City was without Russell Westbrook for the first two games, and while he returned against the Suns last time out, the Thunder only won 103-96 at home as a 12.5-point favorite. It's going to take some time for Westbrook to get back to playing at the level he did before the injury, but oddsmakers are setting lines like he's back to full strength, which certainly is not the case.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on 0 days' rest. The Mavericks are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Dave Price

Milwaukee Bucks +2

The Cavaliers have struggled on the road where they have lost five straight and 11 of 12 dating back to last season. In this season's two road losses they have shot just 36.5 percent from the field. Expect Cleveland's road woes to continue in Milwaukee where it has lost six of its last seven. It is also worth noting that the Bucks will be the much fresher team. They have had three full days off while this will be Cleveland's fourth game in six days. The Cavaliers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bucks.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Alex Smith Sports

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Phoenix Suns

The Suns aren't a good team, by any stretch of the imagination, but they are getting a lot of points against a Spurs club who are not only on the 2nd Night of a Back to Back, but are leaving from the altitude in Denver. Both teams are off of victories last night, with Phoenix winning outright against New Orleans and without their best player in Guard Goran Dragic. 15 points is a lot in the NBA, especially with a young, overachieving team playing a older, slower club. I'll take the points with Phoenix

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Chris Jordan

No way the Memphis Grizzlies fall to 0-3 against Southwest Division rivals this early in the season, that's why I'll take them as my free play tonight when they host the New Orleans Pelicans.

With division losses to Dallas and San Antonio, keep in mind they were both on the road.  Also, the Grizz bounced back from Saturday's 111-99 loss to the Mavericks with a 95-88 victory over Boston on Monday.

I don't trust the Pelicans right now, especially knowing they lost last night at home to Phoenix, 104-98. Now they go into Memphis, which is hungry for a division win and will get one soundly tonight.

Lay the home chalk.

5♦ MEMPHIS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Jeff Benton

Wednesday freebie is the Bobcats as the small home dog over the Raptors.

Both teams just played last night, as Toronto suffered the home loss to mighty Miami, while Charlotte continued to be pesky with the underdog outright win at the New York Knicks.

Have to give the play tonight to the Bobcats on their home court, as Charlotte may only be 1-3 straight up, but they have made the points work early this year with a 2-1-1 spread mark through those 4 games.

Charlotte did win outright in BOTH meetings at home last season versus Toronto, as the host team is on a 6 game series winning streak, and has won 8 of the last 10 straight up when these teams tangle.

Overall, Toronto is just 4-13 against the spread the last 17 series meetings, so might as well look for the home underdog to be the play this Wednesday.

1♦ CHARLOTTE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Craig Davis

208 points will be beaten with five minutes to go in the ball game. This number is way too low, and the only reason it's not a premium release is because I don't start releasing NBA totals until after the first three weeks.

Sides are much easier to hit than totals in the first few weeks of the NBA... it's always been that way for me. It seems to me that Vegas is really sharp on the totals early on, but after they really start focusing their attention on the sides, their lines are better and better but the totals suffer a little.

Golden State and Minnesota are two of the best offenses in the NBA through the first week of the season, so I see no reason why this game doesn't fly way over the total.

Neither team has enough defensive toughness to stop the other, and once they both realize that it's going to be a flat out shootout.

Only once in four games have the Warriors scored less than 110 points... how crazy is that?

Minnesota has been under triple digits only once as well, but average four ppg less than Golden State thus far.

Regardless, each team's offensive weapons should have no problem scoring the ball against the other team's defense based on matchups.

Take the OVER as your free play of the day.

2♦ GOLDEN STATE-MINNESOTA OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Scott Delaney

I don't know who the Phoenix Suns think they are, shooting out to a 3-1 start, but tonight they're falling back into reality against the San Antonio Spurs. That's why my free play tonight is on the Spurs, who had 27 points off 23 Denver turnovers and limited the Nuggets to 16 fourth-quarter points en route to a 102-94 victory last night.

Last night they rallied from six down going into the fourth quarter then pulled away late for the road win. The Spurs have won six of the last seven meetings with Phoenix, so confidence will be huge for this game tonight.

Dating back to last season, the Spurs have covered five of seven at home, and seven of 10 in Western Conference play. Take the Spurs tonight.

1♦ SAN ANTONIO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Brad Wilton

Tonight I side with the Magic plus the points as my free play winner.

Didn't take long for Doc Rivers to get the Clips rolling, as Los Angeles is off to a 3-1 start to the season, and while they should handle Orlando tonight, not so sure the Magic are going to just roll over and play dead, as Orlando is off to a 2-2 straight up start, and the Magic is a perfect 4-0 against the spread thus far this year!

The Clippers may be a little more concerned with tomorrow night's scheduled game in Miami, and may not be "all in" to put it to the Magic tonight.

Orlando has gone a dominant 9-2-1 against the spread the last dozen times they have faced the Clippers, and I will back them tonight plus the points to keep this one tight all the way.

3♦ ORLANDO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Brett Atkins

The Indiana Pacers are making a solid case for being the heir apparent in the Eastern Conference, if the Miami Heat were to fail to make it the NBA Finals for a fourth straight season. Despite the Pacers dealing with key injuries, they're 4-0 on the young season, but tonight will face a true test in the Chicago Bulls.

My free play is on the road dog here, as the Bulls are back to being healthy and this is one game they need to prove they're the ones who are ready to emerge in the East.

Yes, the Pacers are limiting teams to 85.5 points per game on 37.9 percent shooting, but they haven't faced a team like Chicago yet. Meanwhile, the Bulls are hoping to avoid losing three of their first four for the first time since drafting Derrick Rose.

They're in after losing at Philadelphia on Saturday, 107-104, but only after blowing a 20-point second-quarter lead. They've had time to let that loss sink in and will rebound after three day's off for this one.

Take the road dog.

1♦ CHICAGO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Harry Bondi

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+20.5) over Ball State

Let's play the "look ahead angle" and back the big dog tonight. Ball State plays Northern Illinois for the MAC West Championship next week so we don't see how they will be up for a Central Michigan squad that is just 3-5 and who was drilled by Northern Illinois 38-17 in their last game. That game was 17 days ago meaning the Chippewas have had 17 days to get ready for the Cardinals. With that extra prep time and a disinterested opponent we think Central Michigan keeps it close.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Dr Bob

BALL STATE (-21) 41 Central Michigan 20

Ball State's offense averages 39.4 points per game behind the arm of quarterback Keith Wenning, who is having a great senior season. Wenning's impressive 8.0 yards per pass play isn't quite as impressive when you consider he's faced a schedule of teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. However, Central Michigan would allow 8.1 yppp on the road to an average quarterback so Wenning should put up even better numbers than usual and my math model projects the Cardinals to score a few more points than usual.

Central Michigan's offense has averaged 20 points per game since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback following a 5 quarters of horrible quarterback play at the beginning of the season by Alex Niznak and the Chippewas are facing a Ball State defense that is 0.5 yards per play worse than average, which is about the same as CMU has faced on average with Rush at quarterback. My math model projects 20 points for the Chippewas in this game based on the projected yardage and that point total makes sense given their average scoring and Ball State's level of defense being the same as what the Chippewas have faced this season. I have situations favoring both sides in this game so I'll go with the math model, which picks this game 41-20. Pass the side with a lean towards the Over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Andre Gomes

Utah Jazz +5

It's already known that Utah doesn't have a lot of offensive talent on the perimeter. So, it's not surprising that they shot 5-17, 4-22 and 4-18 3pts on their last three games, as they are really weak on shooting treys, excluding Gordon Hayward. Their strength is on the frontcourt and on their ability to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. Yesterday against Brooklyn's super big lineup, who was smart in packing the paint, Utah's offense struggled badly to score down low, ending the game with just 26 points in the paint and a ridiculous 7-22 FG near the basket! Brooklyn had merit in that by being a super tough matchup for the Jazz. On the other side, Utah's frontcourt was pounded by Brook Lopez who crushed them with 10-13 FG, 7-9 FT and 27 points in just 25 minutes! The good news is that this blowout win of the Nets allowed Utah to rest their key players for tonight's game at Boston.

So, it's important to know how Boston's interior defense has been playing regarding paint defense and defensive rebounding. The best news for Utah is that the Celtics are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league so far with a very poor 66.1% defensive rebound rate! Their opponents are averaging 15 offensive rebounds per game against them and so, the Jazz will have plenty of second chance points tonight. Boston is allowing 44.5 points in the paint this season and if we look at their frontcourt formed by Faverani, Bass, Olynyk and Sullinger, I believe that Utah with Kanter and Favors will have a mega edge on this area tonight. On the other side, Boston's offense has been struggling a lot due to their lack of talent. This is why they had just 15, 13, 15 and 14 assists on their first four games of the season! If we exclude their game against Milwaukee, Boston scored very few points in the paint, while their outside shooting isn't good at all as well. This line of five points is too high for Utah, as even though the Jazz are on a back to back spot tonight, Utah didn't make a big effort yesterday. So, their edge on rebounding and frontcourt will make this game at least quite competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking Utah in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

OC Dooley

New Orleans +7½

Memphis is one of several NBA squads that are going through a major shift in philosophy which are leading to early season setbacks straight-up.  Most reading this analysis remember one year ago when Memphis led by “then” head coach Lionel Hollins had the best campaign in franchise history going all the way to the Western Conference Finals while also setting an all-time best mark for home victories (32).  But stunningly after the playoffs a “changing” upper management team shakeup led to the firing of Hollins who originally was upset when the Grizzlies in a cost-cutting measure traded sharpshooter Rudy Gay.  In the early stages of a brand new season Memphis is adjusting to a new regime just like Denver who also stunningly fired a veteran and successful head coach (George Karl) in the offseason.  I am aware that visiting New Orleans (1-3 SU/ATS) has struggled ever since the team name was officially changed to Pelicans and that the squad was humiliated just last night in front of their home fans losing outright against arguably one of the league’s worst sides (Phoenix).  But the bottom line is that in this geographic series New Orleans and Memphis have SPLIT the most recent four clashes.  In tonight’s battle between a pair of squads who have just ONE “spread” triumph between them I will gladly “take” the generous points especially since host Memphis is 0-2 SU so far against Divisional competition.  Here is a solid 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (42-16 the past five years) which actually plays AGAINST home teams like Memphis off a “no cover” where the team won straight-up as a favorite, when taking the court in the month of NOVEMBER (check all calendars)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 6

Dr. Bob

MINNESOTA (pick) over Golden State

We’re going to find out if the Warriors have taken the next step, as this is their first game this season off back-to-back victories. Golden State is just 23-54-2 ATS in regular season games off consecutive wins since December of 2007, including 10-22-1 ATS with Mark Jackson as head coach. If we exclude an opponent that played the previous night, which could lead to problems against Golden State, then that record drops to 12-43-2 ATS, including 0-10-1 ATS recently. The Warriors could exhibit a different personality this season but I’ll lean against Golden State based on their recent history of letting down after consecutive wins.

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