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Key NBA Totals Trend Equals Winning Basketball Picks

Key NBA Totals Trend Equals Winning Basketball Picks

Key NBA Totals Trend Equals Winning Basketball Picks 
By Tom Grassi

When sports handicappers look at games with low totals (less than 180) and teams playing for the second night in a row, one of two thoughts usually occurs: either a sluggish offense will keep the final tally low, or an exhausted defense will allow the final score to shoot past the listed total.

Since the start of the 2006 season, the best basketball pick to make under these circumstances has been to take the under after a team wins that previous clash. Doing so would have resulted in a 29-14-1 record against the Las Vegas betting line.

Breaking those numbers down further shows that one of the best possible scenarios for a basketball pick is when a team is favored, since the under has been a winner in 15 of the 20 games played. Even better is when that game is on the road, since 10 of 12 games have ended below the given number.

Ordinarily, there tend to four to six games each year that fit the situation. The 2011-12 season was something of an aberration in this research, since 17 games fell under this category. That was due to a season which started nearly two months late, which forced a good deal of back-to-back contests.

Still, this NBA trend managed just a 9-7-1 mark during the abbreviated campaign, which still made it a winner with a 56 percent success rate.

That briefer-than-usual season also saw a change in what had been an NBA trend that worked either after a win or a loss. Through February 2012, the record had compiled a 55-23-6 record. However, only once in the nine times this betting option has presented itself since then has the under been a winner when the team is coming off a defeat.

Last season saw just five instances of this potential basketball pick, with four of the games finishing below the total established by oddsmakers. The last of these contests saw the Indiana Pacers drop an 87-84 road matchup, finishing under the 179 total.

Since a winning percentage of 60 percent in this sports handicapping category is considered a major success, it’s possible to extend that total all the way to 185 and under and still achieve such numbers. However, after that, success begins to fade.

In closing, it’s important to remember that the rarity of this betting option requires attention to detail regarding a variety of factors, such as scheduling, game site and, of course, the game total. The payoff for that hard work is likely to be success at the final buzzer.

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