Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 31

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 31

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Cincinnati at Miami
The Bengals look to follow up their 49-9 win over the Jets and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2)

Game 303-304: Cincinnati at Miami (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.022; Miami 131.940
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2); Under

NCAAF

Arizona State at Washington State
The Sun Devils look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 Pac-12 conference games. Arizona State is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun Devils favored by 22. Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-11 1/2)

Game 305-306: South Florida at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 70.284; Houston 100.509
Dunkel Line: Houston by 30; 59
Vegas Line: Houston by 17 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-17 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Rice at North Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 80.386; North Texas 87.648
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: North Texas by 4 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: UL-Monroe at Troy (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 73.902; Troy 72.980
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 1; 64
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+3 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: Arizona State at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 110.390; Washington State 88.446
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 22; 75
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 11 1/2; 71
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-11 1/2); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

New York at Chicago
The Bulls look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against the Knicks. Chicago is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8)

Game 501-502: New York at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.311; Chicago 125.148
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8; 190
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8); Over

Game 503-504: Golden State at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 123.300; LA Clippers 120.924
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 203
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+7); Over

NHL

Anaheim at Boston
The Ducks look to follow up their 3-2 win over the Flyers on Tuesday and build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Anaheim is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+120)

Game 1-2: Anaheim at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.953; Boston 11.880
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+120); Over

Game 3-4: Buffalo at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.608; NY Rangers 12.109
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-200); Under
Game 5-6: Nashville at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.359; Phoenix 11.903
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-155); Under

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Red Dog Sports

Arizona St vs. Washington St
Play: Under 71

We have had success playing these Thursday night games to go under the total. Two weeks ago UNC/Miami stayed under by 12 points and Miss State/Kentucky stayed under last week. Arizona State has played 6 overs and just one under but the last few meetings between the two have seen 53, 64, 42 and 41 points. Washington State is off a game with Oregon that saw 100 points. They get to focus on a team that is good on offense but not as strong as the Ducks. They did play a game with USC that ended with 17 points scored. I won't be shocked by seeing plenty of points but I like the under. One unit on under 71 points.

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Jim Feist

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Troy    
Play: Troy -3

Louisiana-Monroe is on the road where they've topped 20 points just once. That's not surprising as the offense overall averages 19.9 ppg and ranks 99th in rushing. The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Troy (5-3) is a good team with a terrific offense, averaging 34 points and 325 yards passing. That air attack is 16th in the nation and they've won 3 in a row despite playing the last two on the road. When these teams meet the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play Troy.

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Matt Fargo

South Florida vs. Houston
Pick: Houston

Houston is a big consensus play this week but that won't keep me from backing the Cougars here. Anyone who got to take advantage of opening numbers could have gotten the Cougars at -10.5 which is a joke of a line and it pretty much went up a touchdown in a matter of half a day. I still think this number is not close to high enough as Houston has advantages all over the field and will be able to name the score here. The Cougars are coming off a big win at Rutgers and are now playing on a short week which certainly can be a concern but with this game on ESPN and considering they are tied for first place in the AAC, there will be no letdown for Houston in this spot. Adding to that, a loss here makes upcoming games at UCF and Louisville meaningless. South Florida is coming of a loss at home against Louisville as it caught the Cardinals at the wrong time coming off that loss against Central Florida. The Bulls did win their previous two games before that though so they are a respectable 2-1 in conference action. It is one of the most skewed 2-1 records you will see however as South Florida was outgained by a combined 589 total yards in those three games and it did not score an offensive touchdown in any of those games. This offense is atrocious as the Bulls are ranked 121st in the country in total offense and 118th in scoring offense but this latter ranking is no doubt skewed because of the non-offensive scores. Houston will be out to win at home after losing its last home game at Reliant Stadium against BYU in the final minute. That happened to be the first and only loss of the season for the Cougars which are now 6-1 straight up and a perfect 7-0 against the number. The Cougars have a great situation on their side as we play on home teams in the second half of the season in conference games that are outgaining their opponents by between 50 and 100 ypg  going up against teams that are getting outgained by 100 or more ypg. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +31.5 ppg. Additionally, South Florida is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 14 points or less last time out while Houston is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.

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Bruce Marshall

Buffalo vs. NY Rangers
Pick: NY Rangers -1.5

Expect a sharper effort from the Rangers than in their last game at home vs. Montreal, when losing 2-0   That, however, was their home debut at MSG after nine road games to open the season due to refurbishments at the Garden and it's worth noting that the Rangers have sandwiched two road wins around that home loss to the Habs.  So anticipate a bit smoother performance tonight from New York, especially considering the woeful start form the Sabres that includes just one win, and being outscored a hard-to-believe 19-2 in the first period of games.  With only 18 goals, Buffalo ranks near the bottom in scoring in the league, and having just dealt away sniper Thomas Vanek, the Sabres could struggle further, although replacement Matt Moulson (acquired from the Islanders in the Vanek trade) showed promise in his Buffalo debut.   P

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Doug Upstone

Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Over 203

It may take a while for Doc Rivers' rugged defensive style kicks in gear in Los Angeles. Until that happens, it's pretty safe to assume the winning team in Clippers' games will be into the 100s. Play the over 203 Thursday night. Good luck.

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Rob Vinciletti

New York vs. Chicago
Play: Under 189

This game fits a nice totals system that has played to the under 10 straight times since 2001. Take the under when road dogs of 5 or more with no rest, like the Knicks lost to the spread as a favorite of 5 or more points and the opponent, which is the Bulls are off a road dog loss and scored 90+ points. If the posted total is 180 or more these game have stayed under every time. The Knicks played well defensively last night in their 90-83 win at home vs the Bucks. The Bulls allowed over 100 in their opening night loss to Miami. The Bulls have gone under in 12 of 18 after allowing 105 or more points and 7 of the last 10 when the posted total is 190 to 195. Look for this one to go under the total tonight.

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Jack Jones

Chicago Bulls -8

The Chicago Bulls are going to come out pissed off after basically getting embarrassed by the Miami Heat on opening night. I look for them to take care of business in blowout fashion against the overrated New York Knicks Thursday night.

Chicago went 8-0 in the preseason, but it ran into a pumped up Miami team on opening night as the Heat received their rings and raised their championship banner. It was not a great spot for the Bulls, but off a loss, this is a great spot to back them.

In fact, Tom Thibodeau is 53-34 ATS after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Better yet, Thibodeau is a perfect 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or less in the first half of last game as the coach of the Bulls. He has a great knack for getting his team to respond in a big way following a poor performance.

New York isn't the same team it was a year ago. It lost some key pieces like Chris Copeland and Steve Novak, who helped stretch the floor. It is also without J.R. Smith to start the season as he continues to serve his 5-game suspension. The addition of Andrea Bargnani was their biggest offseason move, and it was a terrible one.

Bargnani shot 39 percent from the floor and 30 percent from 3-point range while only averaging 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes in Toronto last year. He went 3-for-9 from the floor in the Knicks' opener last night against the Bucks, a game in which they trailed late before pulling away for an 80-73 victory.

Since they played last night, that means this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Knicks, while the Bulls come in on one days' rest. I believe that really hurts the Knicks right now because they are without Smith. He was the igniter off the bench for this team last season, and without him, they just don't have the depth needed to be able to handle a back-to-back situation. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

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Dave Essler

South Florida at Houston

Yes, I see the line move. The one caution I would give is that Houston's next two games are against Central Florida and Louisville, the two team they are just ahead of in the AAC. Both those teams are ranked, while Houston is not. Perhaps for a reason. The only decent team they've played is BYU. They only beat Memphis at home 25-15, and were it not for four Memphis turnovers they'd have lost that game. Memphis actually had five more first downs in that game, so that's the precedent for South Florida hanging around here. South Florida has played a MUCH tougher schedule, which includes Michigan State, Miami, and Louisville. They did win at UConn, which I realize is not great shakes, but it was a road game. The problem I have is South Florida's pass defense ranks 82nd in the nation. I've obviously got little or no faith in South Florida's ability to score, even against Houston. The Cougars defense, statistically, isn't bad, but I go back to SOS. And Houston IS allowing 157 yards a game on the ground. This one's decided early. If Houston doesn't turn the ball over, South Florida simply cannot play from behind three scores, and Houston has only turned the ball over 7 times this season and leads the nation with a +2.9 turnovers per game. With that in mind, I simply cannot take South Florida here, and think the total of 53 is pretty close. If things play out as they should (do they ever) Houston wins this game 42-14 or so, again, all predicated on their focus, which on an ESPN weekday game, should be better than it might be on a normal Saturday. It's possible there will be some buyback, since some bettors got that +10 pretty quickly, but the very fact that it's now gone over -17 and stayed there says probably not.

Rice at North Texas

UNT has been the darling of many bettors this season, and they've covered six of their eight games. However, their recent schedule has been pretty light, and those "covers" are perhaps one reason why this line has gone up, because Rice simply doesn't suck anymore. In fact, North Texas is looking UP at 4-0 Rice in C-USA West right now, and Tulane is also 4-0 in C-USA West, so this is a much bigger game than "bettors" might realize. Rice's only two losses came against Texas A & M and a 31-26 loss to Houston, in a game where Rice was able to dominate time of possession and put up 463 yards on the Cougars. That may also make me re-think the aforementioned game at some point. They've (Rice) got Senior leadership at QB and won at UNT two years ago. I love what McCarney has done with Mean Green. They're creating a ton of turnovers, while Rice has been very good at NOT turning the ball over. I do see this game staying under the number, and Rice has already won three straight road games prior to the UTEP game last week. With that in mind and not having faith in UNT's offense to put this game out of reach, at +4.5 I do like Rice

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Red Dog Sports

Buffalo Sabres +174

Plenty of value taking Buffalo +174. The Sabres did win at Florida 3-1. The NY Rangers are just 4-7 and have played just one home game, which was a 2-0 loss to Montreal. New York's last two wins were 3-2. Buffalo is just 2-11 but should keep it close with a chance to win it. Nice value pick at this price.

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Raphael Esparza

South Florida / Houston Over 53

The Houston Cougars are averaging 44.8 points per game in their last four games, and I don't see the South Florida Bulls stopping this high-powered Cougar offense. I see Houston easily scoring over 40 points Thursday night, and my worry is the Bulls’ offense. The Bulls should score at least double-digits, and if I can get 14 points or more that would be a bonus. Houston is 4-1 O/U in the month of October, and the Cougars are a perfect 5-0 O/U when playing on Thursday night games. This one should be a higher-scoring affair, and I think that this one will easily go over the posted total.

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LT Profits

South Florida vs Houston
Pick : Houston -18.5

The Houston Cougars are now 7-0 ATS this season after an impressive 49-14 road win at Rutgers as six-point underdogs Saturday, and this underrated team now gets to show off in front of a national TV audience in prime time and also in front of an excited home crowd while hosting the dismal South Florida Bulls. Houston is averaging 42.0 points and 496.7 yards per game, and while the Cougars are known for their passing and are at it again (324.9 yards per game), they are also averaging 171.9 rushing yards after running for 211 yards at Rutgers. Also, the defense has created 27 turnovers in seven games. South Florida simply cannot keep pace here with its 123rd ranked total offense, and the Bulls have not scored an offensive touchdown in three straight games! Houston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. teams with losing records.


Golden State vs L.A. Clippers
Pick : Golden State +7

The Golden State Warriors picked up right where they left off last season by hitting on 15 of their 27 three-point attempts in a 125-94 annihilation of the Lakers last night, and they now look to take advantage of a Los Angeles Clippers team in transition. Other than Klay Thompson, who poured in 38 points, no other Warrior played more than 27 minutes last night so that should lessen the back-to-back factor. The Warriors also figure to be improved defensively this year with the acquisition of the hard-nosed Andre Iguodala, and they did hold the Lakers to 39.3 percent shooting. The Clippers were defeated by that same Laker team 116-103 in the LA coaching debut of Doc Rivers while allowing 48.3 percent shooting from beyond the three-point arc, which is not a good sign now facing Golden State. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings.

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Jimmy Boyd

Warriors/Clippers Over 203

The total in this game grossly underestimates the offensive talent these teams possess. Golden State put up 125 points in their first game of the season, and playing on back-to-back nights should have the defense worn down since conditioning is an issue this early in the year. They face a Clippers team that put up 103 points in their season opener on the road, while the defense gave up 116 points.

The over is 11-2 in Golden State's last 13 games against Pacific division opponents. It is also 15-5 in their last 20 games when playing without a day of rest. The over is 8-1 in the Clippers last nine home games and 17-5 in their last 22 games against Pacific division opponents. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the over has a 5-0 record. Expect a shootout with two of the best offenses in the West tonight.

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Hollywood Sports

Anaheim at Boston
Prediction: Under

Anaheim (10-3-0-0) looks to build off their 3-2 win at Philadelphia on Tuesday. The Ducks are now playing their fifth game in a row on the road where the Under is 39-18-3 in their last 60 games away from home.

Additionally, the Under is 12-3-1 in Anaheim's last 16 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Boston (7-4-0-0) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday. The Bruins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. Additionally, the Under is 15-5-1 in Boston's last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Now the Bruins return home where the Under is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games on their home ice. Take the Under in this one.

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Carlos Salazar

Dolphins vs. Bengals
Play: Over 42.5

Carlos likes what's he's seeing this season from the Cincinnati offense scoring 103 points in the last three games alone. They are scoring on just about everyone via the good balance of big play passing as Andy Dalton has 16 tds through the first 8 games of the season. They are also getting good production in the running game. Miami is desperate to get going having lost four games in a row. Look for them to open up the offense with deep passes to Mike Wallace. This one goes over the total with ease.

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Dave Cokin

Rice at North Texas
Play: Rice

There’s what I think is pretty fascinating under the radar matchup tonight in CUSA as Rice pays a visit to North Texas. Both the Owls and Mean Green are going to be eligible to go bowling later, but there’s a possible division title at stake tonight.

I think the key to this game is going to be the ability of North Texas to make Rice throw the football. When the Owls are able to crank up the run game, they’re a good offensive team. But if they get stuffed up front and QB McHargue has to make plays, Rice gets in trouble.

North Texas has been tremendous defensing the run in the last couple of games. But those efforts came against a pair of stiffs and this is a clear step up in class. The numbers against good running teams haven’t been nearly as impressive, which bodes well for Rice being able to put their preferred game plan in motion tonight.

Rice has some impressive pass defense efficiency stats, which is big here as they’re facing a QB who doesn’t miss many targets. Derek Thompson is connecting at a stellar 68% rate through the air. But Thompson can also be prone to mistakes as he’s been picked off 10 times this season. If Rice can avoid giving up big plays, I think they’ll have a chance to force an error or two. In a game that figures close, that could be huge.

The quandary here is that I actually have North Texas as the slightly superior team on the overall metrics. But even if that’s the case, that’s an overall ranking and doesn’t factor the specific game into the equation. That’s where I see Rice getting an edge as it looks like they match up pretty well with the Mean Green. It’s hardly a slam dunk, but I like the chances of Rice stealing a close victory tonight, and grabbing more than a FG is enough to get me on the Owls side tonight.

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Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Houston/ South Florida Over 53.5: Hard to not see this game hitting at least 55 points. The South Florida defense doesn't give up a ton of yards, but they do allow 30.7 ppg on the year and this Houston offense playing at home on Thursday night will certainly look to put up a bunch of points here. Houston has averaged 44.3 ppg at home and they put up 49 on a tough BYU defense, so they should easily score on the Bulls here. The South Florida offense is not good at all, but the change at QB and getting back RB Marcus Shaw should help them put up some points on a Houston defense that allows 25 ppg and 467.3 ypg at home. This game should top with 60 points.

3 UNIT PLAY

OREGON STATE -4 over USC: I will look to the Beavers in this one. They lost a big shot at showing that they are for real last week with their home game vs Stanford, but the Cardinal won in the end. I expect the Beavers to bounce back here. Their offense is too good to be held down two weeks in a row and the Trojans have shown that they can be scored on, as they allowed 61 points to ASU, and 31 points to Arizona earlier in the year. They did hold the Irish to just 14 points, but ND was using backup Hendrick for most of that one. On offense, the Trojans have been hit hard by injuries and will be missing Lee for this one. They just will not be able to put up enough points to keep this one close. OSU should win by at least 10 here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Arizona State/ Washington State Over 71: I don't see a whole lot of defense in this game. The Cougars defense has been horrid with in the Pac-12 and now they will take on one of the better offenses in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have averaged 45.5 ppg overall and 56.3 ppg in their 3 Pac-12 wins, while the Cougars have allowed 56.3 ppg in their 3 Pac-12 losses. The Cougars are a pass happy team that will throw on just about every down so we will either get many big plays or many clock stoppages from them. On the other side we have a balanced ASU offense that runs as much as it passes, but still they average 332 ypg passing, while the Cougars allow 266 ypg through the air. This game will have a ton of passing and a ton of scoring as we see at least 75 points put up in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Troy/ UL Monroe Over 61:  I really feel that the teams can hit 65+ points here. The Troy offense is very good this year and at home they have averaged a solid 44.7 ppg on the year, while the Warhawks have allowed 34.3 ppg on the road. Kolton Browning and the ULM offense has struggled this year, but he did hit 70.4% of his passes for 225 yards vs Georgia State in his last game and in this one he will be taking on the 124th ranked passing defense in the nation. I can see this offense really breaking out vs the Trojans in this one. Neither teams plays good defense, and the offenses should take advantage and put up at least 30 points each in this one. I expect a 37-34 type of game.

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Bill Biles

Bengals/Dolphins Over 43

Bengals are coming off a great offensive game last week against the Jets and I expect them to score into the high 20's this game and Miami to put up around 17. I see the Bengals scoring a defensive touchdown. Take the Over in this one.

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Steve Janus

Chicago Bulls -8

Oddsmakers are begging you to take the Knicks with this line, but I'm not falling into the trap. Chicago is a much better team than what they showed in their opener against the Heat, while the Knicks took advantage of a bad Milwaukee team last night. I look for the Bulls defense to dominate this game from the start and Derrick Rose to put on a show after a rough go of things against Miami.

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