Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Bob Balfe

Tulsa -3.5

We have bet against this Tulsa team all season long and we have cashed the ticket. I believe today is a time to get on board and actually back them. This young defense has been getting better and it’s getting to be the time where their competition is just average. Tulsa has a QB in Cody Green who has been disappointing this season and now has a chance at home to salvage this season. The key for this game is UTSA not being a great defensive team and not being able to force turnovers. This is a program that just a few years ago didn’t exist. They have been very impressive, but I think Tulsa is the better program with better skilled players today. Take Tulsa

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

CRAIG DAVIS

Free play of the day on the Georgia Bulldogs over the Florida Gators in the world's largest cocktail party.

The biggest story of the day in this game for me is the return of RB Todd Gurley for Georgia. It's the first time in three games he'll be roaming the sidelines for the Bulldogs since the injury. Though he may not start the game, his presence will be felt early and often against a defense that is suddenly being gashed by solid running games.

His return from injury is huge because the Bulldogs will gain an immediate advantage in the "injury battle".

Remember, Florida is down at least six starters due to injury. I'm not saying they're not capable of bringing in quality backups to fill the void, but those players are on the starting squad to begin with... becausee they can play!

This one could actually end up being a blowout if the Gatos don't answer Georgia's early touchdowns. Don't care what the final score is, just care that it stays within the number as I believe Georgia is simply too strong on both sides of the ball.

Take Georgia over Florida as your free play of the day.

2* GEORGIA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

JEFF BENTON

Saturday freebie is Kansas State to extend the margin against defensively-porous Iowa State.

The Cyclones have not stopped too many teams from scoring, allowing 31 points or more in each of their last 4 games, as Iowa State has lost each of those 4, and has failed to cover in each of their last pair of losses.

The Wildcats were able to snap a 3 game slide last week with a convincing 35-12 win and cover at home over West Virginia, and a similar win would not be as surprise in Manhattan where Bill Snyder's team has covered 9 of their last 12 games.

On the surface it appears to be a big number, but with the Wildcats able to control the time of possession, expect the margin to slip to right around 21 points come the final gun.

K-State the call.

4* KANSAS STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

JEFF BENTON

Saturday freebie on Boston College plus the points at home against the Virginia Tech Hokies.

V-Tech is off a stunning loss at home to the Duke Blue Devils in a game they were favored by almost two touchdowns in. Not only that, but last year the Hokies needed a 41 yard field goal with just over a minute left in regulation to force overtime before dispatching Boston College in Chestnut Hill, 30-23 in overtime.

True, Boston College has dropped their last pair of games, but both have come away from home. At home the Eagles have been able to cover 6 in a row against FBS opponents, and they are also 5-1 against the spread the last 6 times the Gobblers have come to Alumni Stadium.

Virginia Tech only averages 19 points per game, so it is doubtful they pull away from BC in this spot on the road where Frank Beamer's team is just 1-8 against the spread their last 9 away games.

Take the points.

1* BOSTON COLLEGE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

BRAD WILTON

Taking a look now at a comp play for this Saturday college card, and I feel bad for the Fighting Illini as they make the trip to Happy Valley to face a Penn State team that got their noses rubbed in the dirt last weekend in Columbus.

Ohio State never did call off the dogs, as the Buckeyes walloped the Nittany Lions by a 63-14 count that saw QB Christian Hackenberg suffer a shoulder injury.

Hackenberg is probable for today's game, but regardless, the Illini defense can't stop anyone, as Illinois is allowing nearly 40 points per game for the year, and the number moves to 46 ppg in conference play this season! Penn State is going to score, count on that!

Bill O'Brien has done a fine job getting his team prepared after a loss in his two years at the helm, as the Lions are a perfect 6-0 against the spread off a loss under O'Brien and have covered 8 of their last 10 at Beaver Stadium.

Compare those numbers to Illinois' putrid 1-6 spread mark their last 7 when getting points away from Champaign, and the choice here is an obvious one.

Penn State by at least 17 points.

3* PENN STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Arizona -15.5 over CALIFORNIA: The Golden Bears were expect to have a better year this year, especially with the addition of head coach Sonny Dykes and super QB Jared Goff, but things haven't panned out that way for this team and I don't see it getting easier for them as the season goes on. This offense was expected to put up points in bunches and they are 31st in the nation in total yards and 8th in passing, but it has translated to just 22.9 ppg on the year, including just 16.4 ppg in their last 5 games. On the other side of the ball the Bears field on of the worst defenses in the nation, allowing 541 ypg (123rd) overall and 350.9 ypg passing, which is dead last in the nation. That has translated into them allowing 44 ppg, which is 122 in the nation. The Cats are 109th in the nation in passing, but should improve after this one. They are 11th in rushing, which should help them hit some big plays in the passing and still the Cal Bears are 91st in the nation vs the run. On the year this offense has put up 36.3 ppg and even notched 31 points vs a very tough USC defense earlier in the year. The Cats have a big advantage on offense, but an even bigger advantage on defense as they rank 33rd overall, 18th vs the pass and 20th in points allowed (19.9 ppg). The Cal Bears are 0-6 within the Pac-12 and have been outscored by 27 ppg in those games, with each loss coming by at least 18 points. This one will be no different as the Bears lose by 21+ here.

3 UNIT PLAYS

FLORIDA STATE -20.5 over Miami:  Both teams are 7-0 on the year, but FSU has hardly broke a sweat in many of their games, while Miami has needed some late heroics to come back and win their last 2 games. FSU has a big edge at QB with Winston over Morris and their defense is also top notch, while the Canes have shown that their defense is really a paper tiger. That Pass defense that has some good numbers n the year was really exposed in the win over Carolina and I feel that Winston will expose it even more in this one. Winston is by far the best QB that Miami will have faced so far and the Canes did allow 395 yards passing to the Heels earlier in the year. Overall the Canes have allowed just 345.9 ypg and 17.7 ppg, but in their last 3 games they have given up 24.7 ppg and 420.7 ypg. The chinks are showing in the armor of this defense and the Noles will take advantage, while their own defense will pressure a mistake prone Morris in to some costly mistakes. The Noles need to win this game big and I feel they will, by at least 4 Tds.

UL LAFAYETTE -31.5 over New Mexico State: The Ragin Cajuns have won 5 in a row and their last two were as road dogs at WKU and Arkansas State. Don't expect much of a letdown here as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as DD favorites. New Mexico State comes in off their first win of the year, but that was vs an FCS team and they still struggled in the game, winning by just 5 points while being outgained by 105 yards in the contest. NMSU has payed 3 road games this year and have lost those three by 49, 46, and 49 points and their defense is one of the worst in the nation, facing a UL Lafayette team that has put up 42.6 ppg in their last 5 games. This one will not be pretty for the Aggies.   

2 UNIT PLAY

Georgia/ Florida Over 47: I just can't see less than 50 points being scored here. The Florida offense has been horrible this year, but that's ok as they will be facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC as the Dawgs allow 33.3 ppg on the year. The Gator defense is top notch this year, but they did just give up 500 yards and 36 points to a Missouri team with a backup QB in their last game and the Dawgs have an equally strong offense. It will be even better with the return of Gurley as that will now give Georgia a bit more balance and you need that vs this Florida defense. The Gators have had some low scoring games, but the Bulldogs have not as their games have averaged 69.3 ppg, with all of their games putting up at least 58 points. I look for at least 24 points from each team in this one as we get a game played in the 50's.   

1 UNIT PLAY

MARSHALL -32 over Southern Miss: The Herd come in angry off of last week's last second loss to the Blue raiders and they get to take it out on a very bad Golden Eagles team. Southern Miss has lost its last 2 games by 41 points each and has been out scored by 39.6 ppg on the road, while the Thundering Herd have outscored their foes by 39 ppg at home. Marshall bounces back in a big way here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Andy Iskoe

Georgia Tech -10.5

Pitt faces Georgia Tech for the first time as a fellow member of the ACC and return to conference play following a pair of non-conference games including a road loss last week at run oriented Navy. They will face a potent running attack here as Tech averages 316 rushing ypg. Pitt has had various degrees of success vs the run, holding 3 foes to under 100 yards but also allowing 3 foes to rush for more than 200. Tech got off to a 3-0 start before losing 3 in a row. But the Yellow Jackets have now won 2 straight including 56-0 over Syracuse which, like Pitt, bolted the former Big East for the ACC after last season. Though hardly a power conference, the ACC had been stronger than the Big East in recent years so that both the Panthers and Orange can be considered to be moving up in class. Against 3 common foes Georgia Tech has fared better statistically although each defeated Duke and Virginia while losing to Virginia Tech. Ultimately Tech should wear down a thin Pitt defense that has struggled in the second half of games this season. Tech is 3-1 both SU and ATS at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Nelly

Akron - over Kent State

These nearby schools are fierce rivals and while both teams are 2-7 this season they feel quite differently about those records. Akron has been very competitive and while the wins have not come, the Zips are clearly improved and heading in the right direction. Kent State was in the MAC title game last season and in a transition season with a new coaching staff and schematic changes. The underdog has covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series and the statistics are much stronger for Akron on defense, allowing 5.7 yards per play compared with 6.7 allowed by Kent State. Akron actually out-gained Ball State last week and they have played tough with other MAC contenders. Despite the disparity last season, Akron may be the better team this year in this Buckeye State matchup.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Playersbet

Northern Illinois Huskies at Massachusetts Minutemen
Play: Northern Illinois Huskies -23.5

We would love to do a write up for this game, we know people enjoy reading them and seeing all of the trends and our thoughts that going into each game.  But, for this matchup right here there just isnt must to say, this is a BLOWOUT! I mean this is one of those game where you just bet it, and forget it.  The 17th ranked Huskies have been cruising through the MAC this year crushing one opponent after the next.  Last season when these two teams met up the Huskies crushed the Minutemen in a blowout 63-0.  The scary part is that the huskies have gotten better! The huskies avg 42 point per game this one should be covered by half as this line is way to low. 


Pittsburgh Panthers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Play: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -9.5

What a scary post Halloween match for Paul Chryst. The Pittsburgh Panthers are 0-9 ATS away against ACC and a disgusting 16-67-1 ATS since 1982 in games where they give up over 200 yards on the ground. GT is playing for an 8th straight week with a bye on deck. GT playing at home gives us this warm and fuzzy feeling like we experience on Christmas morning. If we date back to October 19th where we had this same warm and fuzzy feeling GT blew out Syracuse 56-0 covering the 7 point spread. GT is only 1 win away from their 17th consecutive bowl appearance, so they have all the motivation in the world to head into the bye knowing that this streak will continue. Pittsburgh has played one of the softest schedules in CFB since opening with Florida State and hasn’t covered one single point spread since September. Pitt will head into Georgia Saturday and get stung by the bee in a bit time way. Georgia Tech by 21 plus. Heck take the over to while you are at it and lay a little on a parlay.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Carlos Salazar

Arkansas vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -7.5

Arkansas has won four of the last five meetings, including a 24-7 victory last season. Auburn will get some revenge here on Saturday as they are averaging 37 points per game while holding opponents to just 20ppgs. Arkansas on the other hand is only scoring 20 per game while giving up 30. Look for an easy Auburn cover on Saturday evening.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Doug Upstone

Massachusetts vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois -25

On Saturday, Play On favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Northern Illinois, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, playing in November. The idea here is this is the month where the better teams begin to distance themselves from the pack if they already have not. In the last last four years, this system is 17-4, 80.9 percent, winning by an average of 34.8 points a game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Scott Gramling

Michigan State vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan State -4

The Spartans continue to be undervalued by oddsmakers. While the Wolverines surrendered 47 points and 572 yards to Indiana last week, the Spartans limited the Hoosiers to 28 points and 351 total yards three games ago. Michigan State has allowed just 45.5 rushing YPG (on 1.7 YPC) over the past two contests which is a great sign considering the Spartans are 13-4 ATS (77%) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 2011. They have also shut down great passing offenses (8+ YPA) in this same timeframe, going 8-1 ATS (89%) and holding these teams to 21.3 PPG. Tack on the Wolverines' pathetic 5-13-1 ATS mark (28%) in their past 19 road games, plus their five straight ATS losses (1-4 ATS) to MSU, and this game has all the makings of a comfortable win for Michigan State.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

DAVE COKIN

TEMPLE VS RUTGERS
Take: TEMPLE

Night and day. That’s not a reference to the old Cole Porter song. It’s a description of the Temple football team prior to and subsequent to the insertion of freshman PJ Walker as starting quarterback.

Walker has revitalized what had been a dormant offense. He has the ability to run when the situation is right, racking up close to 200 yards at 4.3 yards per carry. But more importantly, Walker can throw the football where he is aiming, which was often not the case with Connor Reilly under center. Walker is completing 61% of his passes and has a solid 9/3 QB/Int ratio since taking over the starting role.

Temple is still a mediocre football team, and their defense is lousy. But at least that unit is spending a little more time on the sidelines with the Owls now able to sustain more drives on offense.

Rutgers is a team heading in the wrong direction. The Scarlet Knights bounced back from a tough one point loss at Fresno State to win four straight. But they’ve now lost two straight and each of those defeats would fall squarely into the just plain ugly department. QB Gary Nova has been wildly erratic with his throws, with a whopping seven picks on his last 51 attempts.

Nova is not the only worry for Rutgers right now. The Scarlet Knights have a very lengthy injury list heading into this game, and explosive RB Paul James is once again out for Rutgers today. The absence of James has been a big hit for this team. Justin Goodwin has done a good job in his stead, but James is a more feared back and his absence is allowing opposing defenses more freedom in their game planning.

Temple is what I would call an under the radar team on an upward tick. They’re not getting any attention, which is the norm for a nonentity with a subpar record, but they are playing improved football. Rutgers is on the decline right now and off bigger opponents in Louisville and Houston, they could be flat here. I like the idea of grabbing the doubles with Temple to compete had and at least stay within the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Charlie Sports

North Carolina +5

The 2-5 North Carolina Tar Heels of the ACC Coastal division will take on the 3-4 North Carolina Wolfpack of the ACC Atlantic division in 2013 NCAA Football action. North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. North Carolina State. The home team is 5-2 the last 7 meetings between the teams.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

ASA

South Alabama (-) over Arkansas St

Arkie State, after winning the Sun Belt last year, continues to be vastly over valued each and every game. They have NOT covered a game this season. They have lost to the spread this year by a combined 64 points which means losing vs the number by an average of 10.5 points per game. They have played 3 road games this year losing all three by at least 22 points. That includes a 31-7 loss @ Memphis, a game in which they were favored by 4 points. South Alabama is on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Jags finished last in the SBC last season and because of that, they’ve been undervalued this year. They have covered all but one game on the season. They are 3-4 SU this year (the same record as Arkansas State) but they have been much more competitive in their losses. Their losses have come by 1, 7, 1, and 2 points. Their 7-point loss was @ Tennessee, so that would be considered a very solid effort. By comparison, Arkansas State’s losses have come by 29, 24, 22, and 16 points. Last season USA gave Arkansas State quite a run on the road before losing a tight one 31-24. The Jaguars outgained ASU in that game 373 to 316. Remember, that was on the road and when Arkie State was the best team in the league. That isn’t the case this year. They are excited to be at home for a change as this will only be USA’s third home tilt since September 1st. Their most recent two were a 7-point wins over Western Kentucky and a 17-point win over Kent. South Alabama is coming off a tight road loss last week @ Texas State 33-31. It’s a game that USA should have won as they outgained Texas State 6.3 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play. Now back at home, this is a VERY big game for them. We have no doubt USA is the better team here and we’ll lay this small number. Take SOUTH ALABAMA.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Tony George

Nebraska -6

What in the world is Nebraska doing laying points to anyone respectable says Tony George. Bear in mind Tony is an avid Husker fan and alum, however the current state of affairs at both of these schools is in total disarray. Northwestern has been in a free fall since losing a very heartbreaking game to Ohio State, going 0-4 their last 4 games straight up, and 0-6 against the spread their last 6, and were drubbed by Iowa last week. Nebraska started a not yet 100% Taylor Martinez at QB last week, and ended up getting outplayed and out coached by Minnesota in an ugly loss as a 10 point favorite.

Nebraska’s defense is a funnel to the end zone, and you can run and throw on them, and mobile QB;’s give them huge issues. Northwestern has the better coach in this game, and this is a team that came into Lincoln 2 years ago and won, and last year these 2 battled to an Overtime game that had Nebraska winning in a thriller. Tony says Nebraska has no business laying points over a TD to a team on the surface who looks bad with the recent performance, but has enough talent to hang tough, and he finds value in the 7.5 points and the underdog to make it very interesting in Lincoln. Word is Nebraska will start Tommy Armstrong at quarterback in this one, and while he a great freshman for Nebraska, he will not be a difference maker. Tony says Huskers by 3 or 4 points in this one, it will NOT come easy.

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John Ryan

New Mexico St. at La.-Lafayette
Prediction: New Mexico St.

The simulator shows a high probability that NMST will lose this game by fewer than 26 points. This is obvious a mismatch of two teams, but the line has been inflated by public sentiment. In fact, this line opened at 26 1/2 at most books, and has seen a steady pounding by the public betting the home favorite. I always use the word 'value' with great caution in my reports, but in this case we are getting paid extra to assume the risk of the inferior dog. LA-Lafayette has been quite kind to struggling teams. They are just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when facing terrible teams that have been outscored by 17+ points per game on the season since 1992. They are also just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. This is a non-conference game and the following system serves to support the SIM grading and my matchup analyses. This system has gone 37-10 SATS since 1992. Play on road underdogs (NEW MEXICO ST) that are poor rushing teams gaining between 100 and 140 RY/G and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between140 and190 RY/G and after 7+ games, in a matchup of non-conference foes. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

UAB/ Middle Tennessee Over 61: (Added) Neither offense has been spectacular this year, but the defenses have been bad, so I do expect the offenses to win the battle in this one. I said neither offense has been spectacular this year, but neither offense has been putrid either as the Blue Raiders come in having scored 26.1 ppg on the year, while UAB has put up 29.3 ppg on the year, plus UAB has scored 40.4 ppg in their 2 home games this year. Now the defenses. UAB has one of the worst in the nation, allowing 474.9 ypg, including 288 ypg through the air, while allowing 40.4 ppg. MTU has not played good defense either as they have allowed 449.5 ypg overall and 32.2 ppg this year overall and they are equally bad vs the run (96th) as they are vs the pass (94th). Its even worse for this team on the road, where they allow 479 yp and 36.5 ppg. This one should be a fun one.

2 UNIT PLAY

TCU/ West Virginia Under 45: (Added) This game just has the feel of a low scoring ugly game. The West Virginia offense has been stuck in the mud this year as they have averaged just 22.9 ppg, which is just slightly worse than the 23 ppg that TCU is averaging. The Horned Frogs defense is it's usual stout self as they have allowed just 22.8 ppg on the year. The West Virginia defense is not good at all, but they should be able to keep the 2nd worst Big 12 offense under wraps here. I look for about 38 points in this one.   

1 UNIT PLAY

UNLV/ San Jose State Over 66: (Added) The Spartans and Rebels have been in some high scoring games this year and this one should be no different. Both of these defenses are bad as the Rebels have allowed 34.5 ppg on the year, while San Jose State has allowed 35.3 ppg in their 6 games vs FBS foes this year. Those defenses will be going up against some good offenses as the Rebels have put up 34.1 ppg in their last 6 games, while the Spartans have averaged 40.7 ppg in their last 3 games. Really no reason why this one shouldn't hit at least 70 points. 

5 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (13-11-1)

The Michigan Wolverines are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a conference dog. Play On Michigan State -4 over Michigan

The Tennessee Volunteers are 7-1 ATS as a dog with revenge. Play On Tennessee +11 over Missouri

Mike Gundy is 12-2-2 ATS vs a team that allows 20 ppg if he defeated said team last year. Play On Oklahoma State -1 over Texas Tech

The Boise State Broncos are 1-13-1 ATS as Mountain West favorites of 7 or more points. Play On Colorado State +7 over Boise State

NC State is 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games off A SU loss. Play On NC State +5 over North Carolina

SYSTEM OF THE WEEK (2-3)

Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10, in November, if they are off a road loss as a favorite of 7 or more. Teams in this spot are 28-6 since 1992. Play on Northwestern +6

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Tony Karpinski

Penn State -11

Penn St is coming off a terrible game last week where they got embarassed on National TV. Ohio State never did call off the dogs, as the Buckeyes walloped the Nittany Lions by a 63-14 count that saw QB Christian Hackenberg suffer a shoulder injury. Hackenberg is expected to play for today's game, but regardless, the Illini defense can't stop anyone, as Illinois is allowing nearly 40 points per game for the year, and the number moves to 46 ppg in conference play this season! Penn State is going to score, count on that! Bill O'Brien has done a fine job getting his team prepared after a loss in his two years at the helm, as the Lions are a perfect 6-0 against the spread off a loss under O'Brien and have covered 8 of their last 10 at Beaver Stadium. Compare those numbers to Illinois' putrid 1-6 spread mark their last 7 when getting points away from Champaign, and the choice here is an obvious one. Penn State rolls and bounces back in a big way this afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

Rocketman

Georgia vs Florida
Play: Georgia -3

The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon in Jacksonville. Both teams come in with identical 4-3 SU records on the season. Georgia is 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS last 18 games dating back to 1992 after two or more consecutive straight losses. Georgia is scoring 36 points per game overall this year. Florida is scoring only 15.7 points per game on the road this year. Georgia is 2-0 SU and ATS the past 3 years against Florida. Florida is 7-19-1 ATS last 27 games against a team with a winning record. Florida is 1-8 ATS last 9 games after a SU loss. Florida is 4-13 ATS last 17 games after an ATS loss. Favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 games in this series. Both of these teams have been a disappointment so far this year. I feel like Georgia is the better team here. We'll recommend a small play on Georgia today!

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