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NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
NFL Week 9
Bengals (6-2) @ Dolphins (3-4) — Miami lost 4th game in row last week in Foxboro, blowing 17-3 halftime lead; Fish lost last two home games by total of five points- their three home games this year were decided by total of nine points. Bengals won last four games (3-1 vs spread) but are 2-2 on road, with both wins by 27-24 score; three of their four road games were decided by exactly three points- they’re 0-2 as road favorites this year, after being 6-1-1 in 2011-12. Last three weeks, Cincy passing game averaged 7.4/10.4/10.4 yards/pass attempt- very explosive; they’ve scored eight TDs on last ten drives into red zone. This is Bengals first visit to Miami since ’07, second since ’91. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 1-3 vs spread (11-9-1 in all games); AFC East teams are 7-2 in non-divisional home games, 4-1 as home dogs. Dolphins are 15-5 in this series, winning 11 of last 13 meetings- they won 17-13 at Cincinnati LY. Five of last six Miami games and last three Bengal games went over the total.
Falcons (2-5) @ Panthers (4-3) — Atlanta is in freefall, losing four of last five games, with only win over winless Bucs; they’ve run ball for less than 65 yards in each of last four games, and in last two, ran ball 32 times for 45 yards- with star WR Jones out for year, Ryan can’t win games throwing ball 61 times, like he did last week in Arizona. Carolina has yet to allow first half TD this season, outscoring foes 82-23 in first half; they’ve won last three games, all by 15+ points, outrushing those teams 362-186 with a +6 turnover margin, leading to field position advantages of 18-5-16 yards. Panthers won last two home games 38-0/30-15; they’ve only allowed two TD drives of less than 74 yards all year (both at Arizona in Week 5) as they’ve forced teams to drive whole field to score on them. Falcons have won five of last six series games; winning side scored 28+ points in last nine series games. Five of last six Atlanta games and last three Carolina games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 16-8 vs spread so far this season.
Saints (6-1) @ Jets (4-4) — Ryan brothers square off here with Saints playing second game off their bye, while Jets have theirs after this game. Gang Green lost 49-9 last week in Cincy, allowing 10.4 yard/pass attempt, bad news vs Saint team that has averaged 7.6+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games. Jets are -11 in turnovers in their four losses, -1 in wins, but they haven’t lost consecutive games yet this season (3-0 vs spread after loss)- they’re 3-1 at home, with three wins by total of 11 points and a 19-6 loss to Steelers. Saints are 2-1 on road, winning by 2-8 points, losing 30-27 in last minute at Foxboro; they’re 4-1 vs spread when favored this year. 16-14 as road favorite under Payton. NO has only four takeaways (even) in three road games, compared to 11 (+8) in Superdome. NFC South road teams are 2-7 vs spread out the division, 0-3 as road favorites; AFC East home teams are 7-2 outside the division, 4-1 as home dogs. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Saint games went over the total.
Vikings (1-6) @ Cowboys (4-4) — Minnesota has to decide on a QB; all three are about the same, none are very good, but starting a different guy every week is self-defeating. Vikings won eight of last nine games with Dallas, but this is their first visit to Big D since ’07. Dallas is 4-0 vs spread at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 5-24-15 points with the 51-48 loss to Denver- they’ve got 11 takeaways in last four games and are 4-0 vs spread when allowing less than 30 points. Cowboys allowed 30+ points in its last three losses; they were outgained 623-268 in Detroit last week, with Calvin Johnson catching 329 yards worth of passes, so how bad are Vikings to be double digit dog here? Minnesota is 0-3 since coming back from England, losing by 25-16-13 points, allowing 11 TDs on 29 drives, with only one takeaway (-4). NFC North teams are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional road games, 1-3 as road dogs. Cowboys are 3-0 vs NFC East rivals, 1-4 vs everyone else, with only win 31-7 over the Rams. Six of seven Minnesota games went over the total.
Titans (3-4) @ Rams (3-4) — Jeff Fisher coached Oilers/Titans for 17 years, going 142-120, leading them to Super Bowl XXXIV, where they lost to …….the Rams. This is first time he faces his old team, six days after Rams’ game-winning drive died on 2-yard line on last play of a 14-9 home loss to first-place Seattle. Backup QB Clemens isn’t quite NFL-caliber (15-31/139 Monday), but defense played butts off vs Seattle, outgaining Seahawks 339-135 and St Louis ran ball for 200 yards, in OL’s best game in years. Rams are 4-3 as home underdog under Fisher; they’re 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points, but they’re 2-2 at home, beating Cards/Jags. Titans lost last three post-bye games by 12-34-5 points; they’re 1-2 on road but were underdog in all three- they turned ball over seven times in last three games (-3) after having zero turnovers in first four games (+9). Tennessee has zero giveaways in its three wins, seven in its losses- they’re 1-3 as road favorites under Munchak. Six of eight St Louis games, three of last four Titan games went over the total.
Chiefs (8-0) @ Bills (3-5) — Buffalo won five of last six series games, winning 41-7/35-17 last two years; Chiefs lost their last six visits here, with last win here in ’86, but they’re on a serious roll now, winning road games by 26-10-9 points. KC’s four wins when they have 3+ takeaways (+8) are all by 9+ points; only one of the four other wins was by more than six points (28-2 at Jaguars in Week 1). Buffalo split its four home games, which were decided by total of nine points; last week was first time this year they scored less than 20 points. Bills are 5-3 vs spread this year, an underdog in every game. Only two games they’ve been smoked this year were the two games they didn’t have a takeaway, vs Browns/Saints- they’ve forced 15 turnovers in their other six games. AFC West teams are 15-7 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-2 as road favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-2 vs spread outside their division, 4-1 when home underdogs. Six of eight KC games stayed under the total; six of last seven Buffalo games went over.
Chargers (4-3) @ Redskins (2-5) — Cross country trip off bye week for San Diego club that didn’t allow offensive TD in its last two games (Colts/Jags); they didn’t turn ball over in either game, after -5 debacle in Sunday night loss at Oakland in Week 5. In its other six games combined, San Diego turned ball over five times, same as that night in Oakland. Not sure what to make of Washington after they gave up 38 unanswered points in second half at Mile High last week, after leading 21-7 early in third quarter; RGIII’s knee isn’t what it was LY, which hurts his mobility. Skins allowed 101 points in their first three home games (1-2), losing to Eagles/Lions, beating Bears (and backup QB McCown) 45-41 two weeks ago. Bolts won six of last nine post-bye games, but that was under different coaches- they won last three games vs Washington, after losing first six- they’ve lost four of five visits here, winning 23-17 in OT in ’05, their last visit here. Under is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last five games. Bolts averaged 6.5+ yards/pass attempt in each of its last six games.
Eagles (2-6) @ Raiders (3-4) — Why is Philly favored on the road? Iggles are 3-1 away from home, with only loss 52-20 at Denver; they’ve won at Wash/NJ/ Tampa, teams with combined 6-17 record. Foles starts at QB after getting KO'd by Dallas two weeks ago. For first time since ’99, Eagles didn’t score an offensive TD in consecutive games, outscored 32-10 by two divisional rival in games where their starting QB got KO’d both games. Vick heard hamstring pop and Foles had concussion two weeks ago; wouldn’t feel good about laying points on road with rookie Barkley under center. Oakland grabbed quick 14-0 lead over Steelers last week and held on for 21-18 win, their third win in four home games this year (lost 24-14 to Redskins when Flynn (since released) started). Raiders allowed 21+ points in all four losses, 18 or less in their three wins. Philly lost three of last four series games, losing last three visits here by 24-31-4 points. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 2-9 SU this season (2-2 as road favorite); AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-1 vs spread. Under is 5-1-1 in Oakland’s games this season.
Buccaneers (0-7) @ Seahawks (7-1) — These teams came into NFL together in ’76, have met only 11 times (7-4 Seattle) with Bucs winning last three meetings by 10-17-20 points, but those Bucs ain’t these Bucs. Winless Tampa is 1-6 vs spread, 0-2 as road underdogs, losing 18-17 (-3) at Jets, 23-3 (+7) in Foxboro, 31-23 (+7) in Atlanta, while Seattle is 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 26-28-7 points- only home game Seattle didn’t cover was when Titans scored 90-yard TD on fumble off botched Seattle FG right before halftime. Short week for Hawks after escaping St Louis with 14-9 win after being outgained 339-135 by Rams and backup QB Clemens. Seattle has had 2+ takeaways in every game, is +9 for season, but even in last three games. Bucs allowed only 17.5 ppg in four pre-bye games, have given up 31 in all three post-bye games, losing by 11-8-18 points. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 vs spread, 2-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-3, 5-2 at home. Last three Tampa games and four of last five Seattle games went over the total.
Ravens (3-4) @ Browns (3-5) — Baltimore won five in row and 10 of last 11 post-bye games (10-1 vs spread); they’ve won last 11 games in this rivalry by average score of 22-7, winning last five visits here, all by 10+ points. Ravens won 14-6 (-6.5) in first meeting this year in Week 2, after being down 6-0 at half- they were 8-16 on 3rd down in game where neither team gained 300 yards. Cleveland played better last week (L17-23 @ KC) in Campbell’s first ’13 start, but they’re 0-5 in games not started by Hoyer and are 1-2 at home, with only win over Bengals- in their last three games Brown opponents are 25-46 (54.3%) on 3rd down, as Cleveland defense is having trouble getting off field- they’ve been outscored 78-30 since halftime of Detroit game in Week 6. Last four Raven games were all decided by 3 or less points; Baltimore is 1-3 on road, with only win 26-23 at Miami. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread. Five of last six Raven games stayed under total; three of last four Cleveland games went over.
Steelers (2-5) @ Patriots (6-2) — In its last four games, NE defense allowed average of 156.5 rushing yards/game, so they’re having trouble getting off field; foes are 19-38 on 3rd down against them last two weeks. Their 6-2 record is misleading; besides a 23-3 win over winless Tampa Bay, Patriots have three wins by 3 or less points, a 30-23 win at Altanta and last week’s 27-17 win, when they trailed Miami 17-3 at the half. NE is somehow 3-1 as home favorite this year though and 31-18-2 as a non-divisional home favorite since ’03 (2-0 this year). Steelers are 2-5 despite being favored in five of seven games; they’re 1-3 away from home, losing by 10-7-3 points, with win at the Jets- they allowed QB Pryor to run 93 yards on first play of game last week, longest run ever by a QB. Are they ready to play? Pitt lost by 10-17 in its two games as a dog. Pats won four of last six series games; this is Steelers’ first visit here in five years. AFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread, 3-1 when favored; AFC North dogs are 7-4-1 against spread, 4-2-1 on the road.
Colts (5-2) @ Texans (2-5) — Houston lost its last five games, with three losses by 21+ points; they’re going with UH alum Keenum at QB over healthy Schaub; Keenum gets 2nd NFL start after going 15-25/221 in 17-16 loss at Arrowhead two weeks ago, first time in six games Texans didn’t throw a pick-6- he had bye week to prepare full for Colts, team that is 18-4 vs Houston, but lost last three visits here by 10-27-12 points. Texans are -11 in turnovers, scoring 16 or less points in four of last five games. Colts won four of last five games, with only loss in primetime at San Diego; Indy won its other two road games easily, at SF/Jax. Houston’s only win in three home games was 30-24 in OT over Titans in Week 2; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in second half of last five games. With Cushing/ Daniels/Foster hurt, big part of Houston’s nucleus is out. Both teams are off their bye; Indy won seven of last eight post-bye games, Texans won last two. This will be first game WR Wayne has missed for Colts since 2001, but Indy scored 27+ points in four of last five games.
Bears (4-3) @ Packers (5-2) — Simply put, Green Bay is 4-0 vs spread when they have zero or one turnover, 0-3 if they have 2+. Bears have four takeaways in last three games, after having 14 in first four. Much like Texans, Chicago had bye week to get backup QB McCown ready for 2nd ’13 start, vs Packer squad that won eight of last nine series games, winning last six in row, all by 7+ points. Bears lost last five visits to Lambeau, with three of five by 13+. Bears won six of last seven post-bye games under Smith; they lost pre-bye game 45-41 at Washington, as McCown did well in relief of injured Cutler (leg) but if they gave up 45 and last-minute score to banged-up RGIII, what will well-balanced Pack attack score? Green Bay won its last four games; they’re 3-0 as home faves this year, winning by 38-20/22-9/31-13 scores at Lambeau. Pack converted 20 of last 31 third down plays, as Nelson emerges as Rodgers’ go-to guy in clutch. Six of seven Chicago games went over total; three of last four Packer games stayed under. NFL-wide, double digit favorites are 8-5 vs spread this year, 2-1 in divisional games.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
How about those Cowboys, they had last week's game in hand leading 30-24 with 1:02 left only to walk off Ford Field 31-30 losers. At least 'The Boys' covered the spread to remain the leagues best at cashing tickets with a profitable 7-1 mark against-the-number. Minnesota (1-6, 2-5 ATS) paying a visit the Cowboys should bounce back from last week's fiasco in Detroit. Then again, 'The Boys' could invent a new way to lose. Can Cowboys be trusted as 10.5 point chalk against Vikings. Move at your own risk. The Cowboys are just 5-12 ATS as home favorite, 6-17 as home favorite after allowing =>300 passing yards and an equally ugly 9-22 ATS as a favorite after allowing => 125 rushing yards the previous game. One final betting nugget, Cowboys are 1-7 ATS last eight vs Boat-Men.
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets
The Saints recovered from their blemish in New England with a resounding 35-17 victory over visiting Buffalo Bills this past week. Brees hitting 26-of-34 with 5 TD's in the victory may very well be unstoppable again this week facing a Jet squad that was just shredded for 323 passing yards, 5 majors in a 49-9 loss at Cincinnati. Saints on a mission won't miss a beat. Consider laying the small number (-5.5) knowing Saints are on a profitable 6-1 ATS stretch vs the AFC East, 10-3 ATS in November and that Jets are on a 1-3 ATS skid at home off a loss by 24 or more points, 1-5 ATS last six games in November
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
Sunday's Top Action
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -7 & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Patriots -6.5 & 44
Two struggling offenses collide when the Patriots host the Steelers on Sunday.
Pittsburgh has failed to reach 20 points in each of its past three contests while averaging only 297 total YPG in this span. New England QB Tom Brady has had a horrible four-game stretch (52% completion pct., 5.4 YPA, 2 TD, 4 INT), as his team has alternated wins and losses. Brady's offense has been saved by his team's defense that has allowed just 4.9 yards per play this season (6th in NFL). The Steelers' defense has also stood tall recently, allowing just 14.3 PPG and 278 total YPG over the past three contests. But the unit has not been able to figure out Brady, who has a 6-2 record, 276 passing YPG, 16 TD and only 3 INT in his career versus Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers have won two of the past three meetings, including a 33-10 rout in their most recent visit to Foxboro in 2008. They also benefit from the fact that NFL road underdogs off a road loss in November games are 50-18 ATS (74%) over the past 10 seasons. But New England, which is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at home this year, usually bounces back strong after a poor passing game, going 23-6 ATS (79%) after failing to surpass 150 passing yards in a game since Bill Belichick took over as head coach.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is in the midst of his worst season since 2008, based on his 87.2 passer rating. He's thrown for 1,930 yards (276 YPG, 7.4 YPA), but has just 8 TD passes and 11 turnovers (7 INT, 4 lost fumbles). Although he's just 3-4 in his career versus New England, he has still thrown for 1,756 yards (251 YPG), 14 TD and 6 INT in these seven meetings. What has also hurt him this season is a dreadful ground game that averages only 68.7 rushing YPG (3rd-worst in NFL) and 3.3 yards per carry (4th-worst in league). Injuries to virtually every starting offensive lineman have certainly taken its toll. The team has scored a meager 17.9 PPG (5th-worst in NFL) due largely to a horrible red-zone efficiency of just 40% (3rd-worst in league). While the defense has stepped up recently, its lack of big plays has certainly hurt, as Pittsburgh has failed to force a turnover in five of its seven contests this year. However, the team still ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense (303 YPG allowed), fourth in first downs allowed (17.1 per game) and second in passing defense (181 YPG).
Despite the well-chronicled problems of the passing offense for the Patriots (5.5 passing YPA, 2nd-worst in league), they have actually been effective moving the football on the ground with 120.6 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC, both categories which rank 12th in the NFL. RB Stevan Ridley has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games, averaging 5.0 YPC over this stretch. But New England has not been able to punch the ball in with any consistency, ranking second-to-last in the league in Goal to Go efficiency (46.7%). The loss of RT Sebastian Vollmer (broken leg) last week will certainly hurt too. The good news for QB Tom Brady is that all of his receivers have been healthy all week during practice, and his timing with WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski, who have both missed the majority of the season, should improve. The defense is a battered mess with DT Vince Wilfork (ankle) and LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) both done for the season, and DT Tommy Kelly (knee), CB Aqib Talib (hip) and CB Kyle Arrington (groin) all questionable to play. But the unit continues to hold strong, especially with its excellent red-zone defense (44%, 5th-best in NFL), which has led to 18.0 PPG allowed (5th-best in NFL). New England is also doing a great job of forcing turnovers, with at least one in every game and 16 total takeaways this season.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-6) at DALLAS COWBOYS (4-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -10.5 & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -10.5 & 48
The Vikings are still looking for their first win on American soil when they visit a Cowboys team eager to erase last week’s stunning loss.
Since Minnesota beat the Steelers in London, the club has lost three straight games by a combined 54 points, making it 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) in U.S.-based games. Dallas led by 10 points with four minutes left in Detroit last week, but allowed an 80-yard TD drive in the -final minute to lose 31-30. But the team still managed to cover the spread for the fourth game in a row and improved to 7-1 ATS on the season. The Vikings have gained just 246 YPG during their losing skid, while the Cowboys have forced 11 turnovers during their four-game ATS win streak. Minnesota is 7-1 (SU and ATS) in its past eight meetings with Dallas, but the one loss was the most recent visit to Big D in 2007 when the Cowboys prevailed 24-14. The Vikings have a few trends in their favor including the fact that all NFL teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers are 134-79 ATS (63%) over the past 10 seasons. But Dallas is 23-10 ATS (70%) after allowing 300+ passing yards in its last game since 1992. Both teams have a slew of injuries, as Minnesota's secondary could be thin with S Harrison Smith (toe) out, and both CB Chris Cook (hip) and S Jamarca Sanford (groin) questionable. The Cowboys expect to get top RB DeMarco Murray (knee) back in action, but they could be without three key players in WR Miles Austin (hamstring), DE DeMarcus Ware (quad) and CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring).
Minnesota has not announced whether Christian Ponder or Josh Freeman will start under center, but Ponder has been taking most of the first-team reps all week and is expected to start. Both signal callers have had subpar seasons, with Ponder throwing for just two touchdowns and five picks over four games while Freeman has completed a pathetic 42.9% of his passes with 2 TD and 4 INT in his four games. The lack of a consistent quarterback and true go-to receiver (nobody has reached 30 receptions) has led to a mere 306 total YPG (4th-fewest in NFL) and 203 passing YPG (6th-fewest in league) for the Vikings, but they have still scored 23.3 PPG, which ranks 16th in the NFL. Although the ground game has generated only 103.3 rushing YPG (18th in league), its 4.6 yards per carry is sixth-best in the NFL. RB Adrian Peterson is averaging 81.6 rushing YPG, but that number is way down from his 131.1 rushing YPG from his 2,000-yard campaign in 2012. But he has been much more effective over his past four contests with a 4.9 YPC rate compared to his 4.1 YPC rate in the first three weeks of the season. Peterson has rushed for 136 yards (3.8 YPC) and 2 TD in two career games versus Dallas. The Minnesota defense has played poorly all season, but has been on the field for a whopping 35:07, which is the most in the NFL. This has led to 402 total YPG allowed (3rd-most in league), but it's not all the fault of the offense, as the defensive unit has allowed 51% conversions on third down leading to 24.1 first downs per game, which are both the worst defensive rates in the NFL. The Vikings started out the season with 12 forced turnovers in four games, but they have just one takeaway over the past three contests. With such a talented defensive line, there's no reason this team shouldn't have more than the 14 sacks they have generated in 2013 (five sacks over past three games).
Dallas was supposed to run the football more this year with new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan calling the plays, but the team currently ranks 27th in the league in rushing offense (80.6 YPG) with 3.7 YPC (24th in NFL). Top RB DeMarco Murray has been inactive the past two games with a knee injury though, and he should return Sunday to try to keep up his strong 4.7 YPC this season. The Cowboys have thrived through the air in 2013 with 261.3 passing YPG (8th in NFL). QB Tony Romo ranks among the top-7 quarterbacks in the NFL in passer rating (101.7), pass attempts (295), completions (195), completion percentage (66.1%), passing yards (2,216) and passing touchdowns (18), while tossing just five interceptions. His top WR Dez Bryant had an outburst on the sidelines during last week's loss in protest of his season-low-tying six targets, but he still has 20 more targets than any of his teammates this year, which has resulted in 45 catches for 641 yards and 8 TD. With WR Miles Austin still bothered by a bad hamstring, rookie WR Terrance Williams has stepped up with 384 receiving yards and 4 TD over the past five games. The Dallas defense was torched last week for 623 total yards, including 480 through the air. But that wasn't a huge surprise considering the unit ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (422.5 YPG) and passing defense (315.4 YPG), while allowing the league's second-most first downs (23.9 per game). A weak pass rush (eight sacks over past five games) hasn't helped the cause, but the Cowboys have done a great job in forcing turnovers with 2+ takeaways in each of the past four games and 19 forced turnovers this year.
ATLANTA FALCONS (2-5) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -8 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -6.5 & 43.5
The sizzling-hot Panthers seek a fourth straight win when they host the slumping Falcons on Sunday.
Atlanta suffered its worst loss of the season with Matt Ryan’s 4 INT resulting in a 27-13 defeat in Arizona. Meanwhile, Carolina has zero turnovers during its three-game win streak (SU and ATS), in which it has won by a combined score of 96 to 38. QB Cam Newton has completed 77.3% of his passes for 667 yards and 6 TD during the surge. The Falcons have rushed for a pathetic 41.8 YPG in the past four weeks, while the Panthers rank second in the NFL with 79.3 rushing YPG allowed. Atlanta is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the past six meetings with Carolina, but the teams split their two contests last year with both home teams winning straight-up, while the Panthers covered in both meetings thanks to 394 rushing yards in the two games. Both teams have significant offensive injuries, as the Falcons are without WR Julio Jones (foot) for the season, and could also be missing WR Roddy White (hamstring), OT Sam Baker (knee) and RB Jason Snelling (ankle) who are all questionable. Carolina's top rusher, RB DeAngelo Williams, has been slowed by a quad injury, but RB Jonathan Stewart (ankles) expects to make his season debut in this game. Atlanta doesn't usually have two bad games in a row under head coach Mike Smith, going 11-0 ATS after a double-digit loss and 12-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less. But the Panthers are 13-2 ATS after three straight games with a positive turnover margin since 1992, and 7-0 ATS when allowing less than 100 rushing yards in two straight games over the past two seasons.
Despite the Falcons having the NFL's worst ground game (62.4 rushing YPG) that has gained a mere 3.4 yards per carry (6th-fewest in NFL), they continue to move the football through the air with 300.4 passing YPG (4th in NFL). Despite not having his top two receivers, QB Matt Ryan has still thrown for 2,223 yards (5th in NFL) with 14 TD (T-8th in league) and just seven interceptions. However, four of those picks came last week on the road, where Atlanta is now 0-3 (SU and ATS) with a mere 17.7 PPG and eight turnovers (minus-4 TO margin). Ryan has a great chance to bounce back though, as he has had huge career success versus the Panthers with a 7-3 record, 2,518 passing YPG, 17 TD and 6 INT in 10 meetings. He'll look mostly to WR Harry Douglas, who has blossomed with a larger role in the passing game with 19 catches (on 25 targets) for 270 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. But both of the club's top running backs have really struggled with RB Steven Jackson gaining a career-low 3.3 yards per carry and RB Jacquizz Rodgers even lower at 3.2 YPC. Defensively, the Falcons rank 27th out of 32 NFL teams in a number of categories, including yards per pass attempt (7.3), yards per carry (4.6) and third-down conversion rate (44.1%). But the biggest problem could be the team's lack of takeaways, as it has generated multiple turnovers just once all season. This doesn't bode well against a Carolina team that has made no big mistakes during its win streak.
Panthers QB Cam Newton has been rolling in his past three games, but those wins have come versus Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay, which have a combined 4-18 record this season. The recent surge puts him seventh in the NFL in passer rating (97.6), due to his 7.7 YPA, 12 TD and just 5 INT this year. Newton also played very well in last year's series with Atlanta, completing 64.4% of his passes for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT, plus burning them on the ground for 202 yards on 18 carries (11.2 YPC) with two more scores. With both of his top rushers less than 100 percent, Newton will likely carry the football a lot more on Sunday. The Panthers' offense has ground up a 33:39 time of possession (2nd in NFL) and Newton has also done a great job delivering when it matters most, ranking among the top five NFL teams in converting third downs (45.3%), red-zone efficiency (65.2%) and Goal to Go efficiency (81.8%). Newton has also spread the wealth among his receivers, as five Panthers have multiple touchdown receptions this year and four have surpassed 275 receiving yards. Defensively, Carolina has been fierce, especially against the run where it has held each of the past five opponents to 90 yards or less, allowing just 67.2 rushing YPG on 3.7 YPC over this span. The unit has stayed fresh all season with just 26:16 time of possession, leading to 301.4 total YPG allowed (3rd in NFL). The defense has also held strong in the red zone (37.5% efficiency, 4th in league) that has led to its paltry 13.7 PPG allowed (2nd in NFL). The Panthers have also shown the ability to make plays with at least one takeaway in all seven contests, including three forced turnovers in three of the past five games.
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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David
Week 8 Recap
The ‘over’ went 8-5 last weekend and is now 16-10-1 the last two weeks. Last week definitely had some “Bad Beats” for total bettors.
Starting with the Washington-Denver matchup, the total closed at 58 points. The game was knotted 7-7 at halftime before the Broncos outscored the Redskins 38-14 in the final 30 minutes.
Another rough beat was the Dallas-Detroit game. The total closed at 51 ½ points. The Cowboys led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter before the Lions outscored Dallas 24-17 in the final 15 minutes.
Kansas City has been a great ‘under’ team all season and they almost cashed another ticket last week but a late field goal by the Chiefs helped them beat the Browns 23-17, which helped go ‘over’ the closing number of 40.
Even though Miami and New England had 20 combined points at halftime, the Patriots outscored Dolphins 24-0 in the second-half and the Dolphins missed a field goal and had one blocked as the Patriots held on for a 27-17 victory. The total closed at 46.
On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 64-53-2.
The early line moves went 3-3 in Week 8. On the season, the lines moves are 24-16-1 (60%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.
Atlanta at Carolina: Line opened 41½ and jumped to 45½
Minnesota at Dallas: Line opened 47 and jumped to 49½
Kansas City at Buffalo: Line opened 42½ and dropped to 40
Baltimore at Cleveland: Line opened 40 and jumped to 41½
Chicago at Green Bay: Line opened 48½ and jumped to 50½
Bettors following this column weekly are well aware of the NFC-AFC ’over’ trend this season. For the newbies, make a note that the ‘over’ is 27-11 (71%) in non-conference games this year, which included a 3-0 effort in Week 8 albeit with a few lucky breaks. On Sunday, we have four matchups pending.
New Orleans at N.Y. Jets
Tennessee at St. Louis
San Diego at Washington
Philadelphia at Oakland
Last week, we touched on the vice versa angle that I sometimes use in divisional matchups and it cashed again with the Eagles and Giants going ‘under’ the number after the first meeting was a very high-scoring affair. Again, it’s not the end-all when it comes to winning totals but it’s something you should note and it fits again this week.
Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and bettors have seen this pair combine for 50, 58, 54 and 48 points during this span. The oddsmakers made a mistake with their opener (41½) and the sharps jumped on it quickly, pushing the number up three points. The Falcons are beat up, especially on offense and they’ll be facing a Panthers’ defense (13.7 PPG) that is very sound. However, Carolina should be able to exploit an Atlanta defense (26.3 PPG) that has been able to make plays all season.
Baltimore at Cleveland: If you lean to the vice versa angle mentioned above, this is the matchup to watch in Week 9. The Ravens defeated the Browns 14-6 in Week 2 and the closing total (43½) was never threatened. Since we had a very low-scoring game, you would expect a better effort offensively from both clubs. Including this result, the ‘under’ is on a 6-0 run in this series but it still makes me wonder why this week’s line has already been steamed up and not down. If you’re looking for a better reason to go ‘over’ then it’s hard to ignore what head coach John Harbaugh has done off a bye. The Ravens are 5-0 in regular season games with rest under Harbaugh and they’ve scored 28, 30, 26, 29 and 23 points in those games.
Indianapolis at Houston: (See Below)
Chicago at Green Bay: (See Below)
Under the Lights
Finally, the ‘under’ cashed this past Thursday in the Miami-Cincinnati matchup and bettors taking ‘over’ 42½ were upset, especially when the game went to overtime tied at 20-20. Outside of the game ending in a tie, the least likely outcome would’ve been a team winning by two points and that’s what happened as the Dolphins won 22-20 with a safety. While you have a right to be angry, the ‘under’ was the right side and if Bengals QB Andy Dalton doesn’t suck it up, the ‘over’ never has a chance. Including this result, the ‘over’ is 16-11 in primetime games this week.
SNF - Indianapolis at Houston: This matchup was known for high-scoring affairs when Peyton Manning was under center for the Colts. Since his departure to injury and the Broncos, the last four meetings in this series has gone ‘under’ the number and early signs point to another tight battle this week. The Texans will be starting an inexperienced quarterback in Case Keenum, who will be facing an underrated Colts defense (18.7 PPG). Most would believe that both teams will be prepared off the bye week, which hasn’t been the case for Houston under head coach Gary Kubiak. The Texans are 3-4 with rest under him and for total purposes, the ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in those games. Also, it will be interesting to see how Colts QB Andrew Luck does with the passing game with WR Reggie Wayne (knee) done for the season.
MNF - Chicago at Green Bay: I’m a little surprised this line has been bumped up but when you look at the numbers for this week’s matchup, it makes sense. The Bears are mess defensively (29.4 PPG, 391 YPG) right now and their nine sacks is the lowest in the league. If that unit can’t pressure Green Bay’s offense, which is ranked third in points (30.3 PPG) and second in yards (438.9 YPG), the game is over. If you’re going to lean the other way, you can definitely point to head-to-head trends. The ‘under’ has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series. Keep in mind that the Bears’ Josh McCown is taking place for the Jay Cutler (groin) at QB.
If you bet totals in any sport, you better accept the fact that bad beats occur all the time and much more than side wagers. Despite being on the right side of two plays last week, we got squeezed. While I lost, somebody won and if you did, congratulations! On the season, the deficit is sitting just under a nickel ($480) through seven weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tennessee-St. Louis 39½
Best Under: San Diego-Washington 51½
Best Team Total: Under San Diego 26½
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 30½ Tennessee-St. Louis
Over 34½ Pittsburgh-New England
Under 60½ San Diego-Washington
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
Sunday's NFL Week 9 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, 45)
The Carolina Panthers have surged above .500 for the first time since 2008 and aim for their fourth straight victory when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Panthers have won three straight by an average of 19.3 points to pull within two games of NFC South leader New Orleans. The defending champion Falcons have struggled to their worst start since 2007.
Carolina's offense has sprung to life the past three weeks, topping 30 points in each game while Cam Newton has posted a league-best 130.3 passer rating over that span. And there's more good news: it appears running back Jonathan Stewart will make his season debut. He practiced in full pads Wednesday for the first time in nearly a year and drew rave reviews from coaches and teammates.
LINE: Carolina opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has jumped to 9.5. The total has risen from 43 to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing diagonally out of the N at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (+3.0) + Panthers (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Carolina -7
* Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.
* Over is 12-2-2 in Carolina's last 16 games vs. the NFC South.
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 48)
Minnesota has struggled on defense for most of the season - but the majority of the attention is being placed on the quarterback position, where Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder seem to be in a weekly competition for the starting job. Neither passer managed to take advantage of an opportunity to start, and Matt Cassel is the only quarterback on the roster with a win under his belt this season.
New Cowboys defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has his unit last in the NFL while surrendering an average of 422.5 yards. Dallas already allowed four different quarterbacks to pass for over 400 yards and was burned for the second-highest receiving total in NFL history when Calvin Johnson piled up 329 yards last week. The Cowboys surrendered 623 total yards at Detroit last week, with the last 80 coming in the final 50 seconds.
LINE: Dallas is installed as a 10-point favorite after opening at -10.5. The total has risen from 47 to 48.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (+7.5) + Cowboys (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Dallas -15
* Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the NFC.
* Cowboys are 5-0 in their last five games on Fieldturf.
* The favorite is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+6.5, 45.5)
Drew Brees is having another stellar season as he leads the NFC with 19 touchdown tosses and a 109.2 passer rating while ranking second with 2,290 yards passing. The former Super Bowl MVP is coming off a victory over Buffalo in which he threw for 332 yards and five scores, marking the NFL-record eighth time he's had five touchdowns passes.
Jets rookie Geno Smith has shown signs of being a solid NFL quarterback, he'll need to cut down on mistakes if he hopes to earn that distinction. Smith has thrown 13 interceptions, the third-highest total in the league, and been sacked 28 times - second to Miami's Ryan Tannehill (32). Smith has thrown seven touchdown passes and four interceptions in the team's victories compared to one TD and nine picks in the losses.
LINE: The Jets opened the week as a 4.5-point dog, but the line has since jumped to 6.5. The total is 45.5..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-6.0) + Jets (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Jets +6.5
* Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 November games.
* Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous encounter.
* Over is 5-1 in New York's last six games.
Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+1, 39.5)
Quarterback Jake Locker (hip, knee) got some well-needed rest with Tennessee on a bye last weekend and has a solid 8-to-1 touchdowns-to-interceptions rate. Locker missed two games before passing for 326 yards and two scores in a loss to San Francisco on Oct. 20 prior to the break. Running back Chris Johnson is struggling mightily with just 110 yards on 46 carries over the past four games.
Defensive end Robert Quinn is having a dominating campaign and ranks fourth in the NFL with 10 sacks. Quinn had three of the team’s seven sacks in the 14-9 loss to the Seahawks, a contest in which St. Louis allowed just 135 yards. Quarterback Kellen Clemens again starts for injured Sam Bradford after going 15-of-31 for 158 yards and two interceptions against Seattle in his 13th career start.
LINE: The Rams opened +3 and are now +1, with the total holding at 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+1.0) - Rams (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Rams +2.5
* Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
* Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss.
* Over is 5-0 in St. Louis' last five home games against teams with losing road records.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 39.5)
A tenacious defense and efficient offense have the Kansas City Chiefs off to their best start in 10 seasons. The Chiefs look to keep both in gear on Sunday and win their ninth straight contest to begin a campaign for the first time since 2003 when they visit the Buffalo Bills. The aggressive defense boasts an NFL-best 36 sacks while holding opposing offenses to a league-low 12.3 points per game.
With running back C.J. Spiller's availability in limbo, veteran Fred Jackson will need to overcome the pains of a sprained MCL in an effort to keep Kansas City's pass rush at bay. Stevie Johnson has been nursing a hip flexor, but did his best to put it in his rear-view mirror following a seven-reception, 72-yard effort with a touchdown in Sunday's 35-17 setback to New Orleans.
LINE: The Bills opened +3 and are now +3.5. The total opened 41.5 and is down to 39.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with a 32 percent chance of snow.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) + Bills (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buffalo +6
* Chiefs are 4-11 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 7-1 in Kansas City's last eight November games.
San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (-1, 51)
Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers have to be salivating at the prospect of facing the Washington Redskins' defense this weekend. The Chargers travel across the country looking for their first three-game winning streak since 2011 when the teams match up on Sunday. The Redskins, meanwhile, are allowing 32.7 points per game - second-worst in the NFL - and have yielded 39 points per game over their last three contests.
Rivers' 15 touchdown passes have gone to six different receivers, with Eddie Royal leading the way with six scores and tight end Antonio Gates (497 yards, two TDs) on pace to lead the team in receiving yards for the first time since 2010. Even running back Ryan Mathews, once considered a first-round bust, is starting to become a force, having rushed for more than 100 yards in back-to-back games.
LINE: This opened as a Pick and is now Skins -1. The total has held firm at 51.
WEATHER: Skies will be clear with temperatures in the low-50s and wind blowing across the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-1.5) + Washington (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Washington +1.5
* Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Redskins are 6-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 18-7-1 in San Diego's last 26 road games vs. teams with losing home records.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
Sunday's NFL Week 9 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-1, 45)
Philadelphia doesn't know what it will get from Sunday starting quarterback Nick Foles - the NFC Offensive Player of the Week from Week 6 or the guy who was 11-of-29 for 80 yards before leaving with a concussion a week later against Dallas. Regardless of the quarterback situation, the Eagles can lean on the NFL's leading rusher in LeSean McCoy (733 yards).
Oakland still has plenty of work to do to get back in the playoff picture, but the offense is starting to take shape thanks to dynamic dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Pryor leads the team - and all NFL quarterbacks - with 391 rushing yards and set a franchise record with a 93-yard touchdown run in last week's 21-18 win over Pittsburgh.
LINE: Oakland has held steady as a one-point favorite. The total is set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (+3.0) - Raiders (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Oakland -1
* Eagles are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games.
* Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.
* Under is 8-0 in Oakland's last eight home games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5, 40)
Seattle struggled badly on offense in a 14-9 win over the St. Louis Rams on Monday night, totaling just 135 yards – 80 on one scoring play from Wilson to Golden Tate – and needing a game-ending goal-line stand to seal the victory. The Seahawks will be without receiver Sidney Rice, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the contest.
Tampa Bay has been asking rookie quarterback Mike Glennon to throw a lot of passes with star running back Doug Martin (shoulder) sidelined and Schiano said the attack will become more balanced. Glennon has averaged 45.3 pass attempts in his first four starts while throwing for 997 yards and six touchdowns against just three interceptions.
LINE: The Seahawks opeend -17 but are now -14.5. The total is currently 40..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 43 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+7.0) + Seahawks (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -16.5
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. the NFC.
* Seahawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games on Fieldturf.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+1, 41)
The Ravens put up 16.5 in their last two losses and are feeling the pressure to turn the season around. The lone bright spot for the Baltimore offense over the two games before the bye came from quarterback Joe Flacco, who passed for 557 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the contests. Flacco is 11-0 against the Browns in his career with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Cleveland will go with its sixth different quarterback in the 12 career games against Flacco, with Jason Campbell getting his first start in the series. Campbell posted solid numbers in his first start for the Browns last week, completing 22-of-36 passes for 293 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 23-17 loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.
LINE: Cleveland has held steady as a one-point underdog. The total is 41, down from an open of 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (+1.0) - Browns (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = even
* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the AFC North.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 44)
Pittsburgh has failed to reach 20 points in five of its seven games and is tied for 27th in scoring with an average of 17.9 points a game. A patchwork offensive line that lost three more players to injury last week has hindered rookie Le'Veon Bell and the running game while Roethlisberger was sacked five times to boost his season total to 26.
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is completing 55.7 percent of his passes and has a QB rating of 74.9 - both career lows - while tossing two TD passes and four interceptions in the past four games. Tight end Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) was limited in practice Wednesday, so the Patriots could lean on a running game that produced 152 yards last week.
LINE: The Patriots opened at -7. The total has held steady at 44.
WEATHER: Wind will blow diagonally out of the northwest at 12 mph with temperatures in the mid-30s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (+3.5) + Patriots (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = New England -11.5
* Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. the AFC.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
Week 9 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Falcons at Panthers (-7½, 45)
Atlanta: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
Carolina: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Falcons put together probably their worst performance of the season in a 27-13 defeat at Arizona as short road underdogs. Matt Ryan tossed four interceptions, while the Falcons rushed for just 27 yards. The Panthers won their third game in a row by dominating Tampa Bay, 31-13, the third consecutive contest breaking the 30-point plateau.
Previous meeting result: The two teams split both meetings last season, but Carolina managed to cover each time. The Falcons held off the Panthers at the Georgia Dome last September, 30-28 as seven-point favorites, while Carolina took care of Atlanta in Charlotte two months later, 30-20. Both matchups finished 'over' the total.
Betting notes: Last week's 'under' in Arizona snapped a five-game 'over' run by Atlanta, even though four of those 'overs' came at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have put together a dreadful 1-4 SU/ATS record in their last five road divisional contests, while the Panthers are 6-3 ATS the previous nine games inside the NFC South.
Saints (-6½, 46) at Jets
New Orleans: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS
New York: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Saints came off the bye week with a resounding home victory over the Bills, 35-17 as 10½-point favorites. New Orleans has won and covered all four games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season, while winning its last three home contests by double-digits. The Jets continued their roller-coaster season by getting destroyed at Cincinnati, 49-9 as six-point away 'dogs. New York has scored one touchdown in less in five of eight games this season.
Previous meeting result: New Orleans cruised past New York, 24-10 in 2009 at the Superdome to end the Jets' early 3-0 start to the season. For as little as history means pertaining to this series, the Saints have won five of the last six matchups with the Jets since 1989, including a 3-0 mark in New Jersey.
Betting notes: The Saints have owned AFC opponents at the Superdome since 2007, by putting together a 7-2 SU/ATS record. The Jets have struggled as a road underdog since the start of last season, compiling a 5-9 ATS mark.
Chargers at Redskins (PK, 51)
San Diego: 4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS
Washington: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Redskins' defense was torched in the fourth quarter of a 45-21 defeat at Denver by allowing 31 points in the final 15 minutes. Washington has allowed a whooping 117 points in the last three games, while failing to cover for the fifth time in seven contests. The Chargers head east for the fourth time this season as San Diego is coming off the bye week. San Diego basically had the bye two weeks ago as the Lightning Bolts destroyed the Jaguars, 24-6, while limiting their last two opponents to a total of 15 points.
Previous meeting result: The Chargers knocked off the Redskins in the season finale of the 2009 season, 23-20 as three-point home favorites. In San Diego's last visit to the Nation's Capital in 2005, the Bolts rallied from a 17-7 deficit to stun the Redskins in overtime, 23-17.
Betting notes: The two victories over NFC opponents for the Chargers this season improved San Diego's mark to 2-7 SU the last nine interconference contests. The Redskins have played high-scoring games against the AFC recently, posting a 6-2 mark to the 'over' since 2011.
Ravens (-2½, 41) at Browns
Baltimore: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Cleveland: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Last week's results: Both these teams look to end losing streaks on Sunday, as the Ravens have lost their last two games by a combined five points to the Packers and Steelers. Cleveland has gone backwards following a three-game winning streak by dropping its last three contests, while scoring 17 points or less in each defeat.
Previous meeting result: The Ravens have owned the Browns with 10 straight wins in the series dating back to 2008. The last six matchups have finished 'under' the total, including a season sweep by Baltimore in 2012, while limiting Cleveland to just 21 points in the two victories.
Betting notes: Since hitting the 'over' in the opener at Denver, the Ravens have cashed the 'under' in five of the past six games. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore owns a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record off the bye. The Browns have cashed in the home underdog role in five of their last eight opportunities since the start of last season.
Steelers at Patriots (-6, 44)
Pittsburgh: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
New England: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Last week's results: The Steelers fell behind early as short road favorites in last Sunday's 21-18 defeat at Oakland. Pittsburgh has scored 19 points or less in each of the past three games, while falling behind 21-3 to the Raiders before putting up 15 points in the fourth quarter. The Patriots overcame a 14-point halftime deficit to top the Dolphins, 27-17 to cash as 6 ½-point favorites. New England has now alternated wins and losses in each of the last five weeks.
Previous meeting result: Pittsburgh knocked off New England as three-point home underdogs in 2011 with a 25-17 triumph. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Patriots' defense for 365 yards and two touchdowns, while the Patriots were limited to 213 yards on offense. Since 2003, the Pats and Steelers have split a pair of meetings at Gillette Stadium.
Betting notes: The Patriots have covered seven of their last 10 as a home favorite, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season at Gillette Stadium. The Steelers have seen success since 2008 on the road against AFC East opponents by winning each of the last five.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 9 of the NFL
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- The Carolina Panthers have yet to allow a TD in the first half this season.
- The Over is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings between those Panthers and their NFC South rivals Atlanta Falcons. Sunday's total is currently 45.
- Dallas Cowboys backers must be wondering aloud why DeMarco Murray doesn't get the ball more often. The 'Boys are 11-0 when Murray gets 18 carries or more.
- The Minnesota Vikings are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Cowboys. Sunday's line is currently Cowboys -10.
- The Cowboys, however, are tops in the league with a 7-1 ATS record this season.
- The Saints at Jets means Rob Ryan v Rex Ryan. Rex is 4-0 SU all time versus his brother.
- The Saints are also the top Covers consensus pick at 77.68 percent. They are 6.5-point faves Sunday.
- The Titans have lost three-straight games and have mustered just 15.7 points per game over that stretch.
- The Titans will be third opponent from the AFC St. Louis faced so far this season. The O/U is 2-0 in those two meetings with Sunday's total currently 39.5
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS in their last nine meetings with teams from the AFC East. The Chiefs are 3.5-point road faves at Buffalo.
- The Bills have won 10 of the last 11 home games against the Chiefs - with the lone setback coming in 1986.
- The Washington Redskins host the San Diego Chargers in a non-conference game Sunday. The O/U went 3-0 last week in non-conference games and Sunday's total in this one is 51.
- Speaking of Overs and non-conference games - the Eagles have a 5-0 O/U record in their last five road games. They are in Oakland Sunday, where the total is currently 44.5.
- The Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. Sunday's total is currently 41.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the New England Patriots. The Steelers are 6-point dogs.
- Pats QB Tom Brady has had great success versus the Steelers posting a 6-2 SU mark throughout his career.
- The Under in the Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns game is the top Under consensus pick at 60.51. The total is currently 41.
- Also trending under are matchups between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings with a total of 44 currently tabbed on the Sunday night matchup.
- Despite the Under trend, Texans RB Arian Foster has had his way with Indy's rush D. Hehas averaged 150.4 yards rushing in five matchups against Indianapoliss
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh at New England
By Alatex Sports
Pittsburgh at New England
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -7 O/U 43
CRIS Current: New England -6 O/U 43
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -8
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Pittsburgh
In years past this would have likely been the marquee game of the week with the success these two franchises have had. In fact, of the last ten AFC championship games, nine have featured Pittsburgh, New England or both.
This year, they are both trying to rebuild and do not resemble the high powered teams the NFL is used to seeing. New England has somehow managed to win six of its eight games with Tom Brady having his worst season ever thanks mostly to a lack of experienced weapons. The Steelers meanwhile have struggled to a 2-5 mark and have had trouble on both sides of the ball, with their trademark defense being the biggest culprit, especially against the run.
Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin has benched five starters already this year due to performance issues and he has also had to deal with numerous injuries, including losing three offensive linemen last week at Oakland. It does appear that both right guard David DeCastro and left guard Ramon Foster will be able to play this week.
New England is no stranger to injuries this year either, with Rob Gronkowski missing the first six games, tackle Sebastian Vollmer missing the entire season, and they have lost their best two defenders, nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo, for the season in the last few weeks. They have also had numerous key guys miss a game or two here and there like cornerback Aqib Talib and receiver Danny Amendola. Bill Belichick has somehow held this team together with string and duct tape to get them to six wins.
This week finds the Patriots installed as 6-point favorite (opened -7). They are coming off a 27-17 win over the Dolphins at home last week; a game that they were completely dominated in the first half. They went into the locker room at halftime facing a 17-3 deficit and it could have been worse, but they were able to outscore the Dolphins 24-0 in the second half to get the win and cover as a six-point favorite.
New England has three wins by a field goal or less this year, a seven point win over Atlanta and a 20-point win over the hapless Bucs. In the past, New England won most of its games by big margins, but they are seemingly in close games every week this season.
On the other hand, of Pittsburgh’s five losses, four of them were by a touchdown or more. The Steelers had won its last two games before falling at Oakland last week, so they appear to be on slightly better footing.
This is very close to a must win game for the Steelers if they have any hopes of righting their ship and making the playoffs. They face an opponent that has not been dominant by any stretch of the imagination despite their 6-2 record. I would much rather take the points here than lay them and expect to see another close game that Brady pulls out at the end.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, November 3
NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta at Carolina
By Ian Cameron
Atlanta at Carolina
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Carolina -7.5 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: Carolina -7 (-120) O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Carolina -4.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Carolina
Things have come off the rails for the Atlanta Falcons. They are 2-5 and have lost four of their last five games – the lone win against a woeful Tampa Bay Bucs squad 31-23 in a game they were outgained by 46 yards. Atlanta has cluster injuries at wide receiver with Julio Jones on IR and lost for the season and Roddy White questionable for this week with a hamstring injury. The Falcons have not been able to run the football because of those injuries and thus haven’t been able to score on a consistent basis. Atlanta had just 27 rushing yards on 14 carries last week in their 27-13 loss to Arizona. Matt Ryan tossed 4 INTs and is clearly affected by the lack of his top playmakers in the passing game. The Atlanta defense continues to struggle ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in all major statistical categories including 26.3 points per game allowed. This is not a good team right now plain and simple and they are facing Carolina at the worst time.
Carolina is peaking and playing its best football of the season. The Panthers quality of competition leaves a lot to be desired but there it is a very positive sign to see Carolina trounce three bad teams in a row defeating Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 96-38. Cam Newton completed 58-of-75 passes for a 77% completion rate and a spotless 6-0 TD-INT ratio in those games. Carolina’s ground attack hasn’t taken off yet but with Jonathan Stewart likely to make his return to the Panthers lineup this week, it should get a boost. The Panthers are ranked in the top 10 in all major defensive categories: pass yards allowed, rush yards allowed, total yards allowed and points allowed. Carolina’s defense held the potent Seattle Seahawks offense to 12 points back in Week 1, shut out Eli Manning and the NY Giants, and now face a struggling Atlanta offense. I see no reason why Carolina can’t continue its recent defensive dominance here at home against Atlanta.
The betting markets have reacted to the fact these teams are trending in opposite directions with Carolina favored by more than a touchdown but it may be warranted. Before you become overly concerned about laying this kind of price, it is worth noting Carolina beat Atlanta by margin at home 30-20 last season in a game the Panthers outgained the Falcons 475-362 and Carolina destroyed Atlanta on the ground 195-35. Atlanta was a better and certainly healthier team at that time than they are now. The price is steep but the only way I can look here it to lay the points in this NFC South battle.
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