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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

Cardinals at Red Sox: What Bettors Need to Know

St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox (-117, 7)

Boston leads series 3-2.

The Boston Red Sox rode David Ortiz to a World Series lead and are hoping the slugger has one more great game left this season. Ortiz will take his .733 World Series batting average into Game 6 when the Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals with a chance to close out the series. Ortiz matched a World Series record by reaching base safely in nine straight plate appearances and contributed three hits and an RBI to Game 5’s 3-1 victory.

The Cardinals will not only have to face Ortiz but Mike Napoli on Wednesday, with Ortiz moving back to the designated hitter spot and Napoli coming off the bench to play first base in the American League park. “The fact is we’re going home,” Red Sox manager John Farrell said. “Going back to a place that our guys love to play in, in front of our fans.” St. Louis could use some offense of its own after being limited to a total of three runs in the last two games. The bottom of the order is providing very little and the top two hitters (Matt Carpenter and Shane Robinson) combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts in Game 5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 40s with partly cloudy skies and winds WNW at 3 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH John Lackey (0-1, 3.68)

Wacha is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four postseason starts but surrendered more than one run for the first time since Sept. 19 in Game 2 at Boston, yielding two runs on three hits and four walks. The 22-year-old needed a season-high 114 pitches to complete the six frames. Wacha allowed a two-run homer to Ortiz that briefly put the Red Sox on top in that contest.

Lackey went up against Wacha in Game 2 and left with a 2-1 lead after 6 1/3 innings despite being at just 95 pitches. Craig Breslow came on and allowed the inherited runners to score, saddling Lackey with the loss. The veteran came out of the bullpen in Game 4 and tossed a scoreless eighth on his between-starts throw day.


* Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.
* Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 playoff road games.
* Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four Game 6 of a series.

UMP TRENDS - Jim Joyce:

* Over is 4-0 in Joyce's last four games behind home plate.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Joyce's last six interleague games behind home plate.
* Under is 13-6 in Joyce's last 19 games behind home plate vs. Boston.


1. Red Sox RF Shane Victorino (lower back) was held out of the starting lineup in Game 4 and 5 but was available off the bench.

2. Matt Holliday has both of the Cardinals’ home runs in the series and is 1-for-10 against Lackey in his career, with the lone hit a Game 2 triple.

3. Ortiz (11) needs two more hits to tie the record for a single World Series shared by Bobby Richardson (New York Yankees, 1964), Lou Brock (St. Louis, 1968) and Marty Barrett (Boston, 1986).

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

World Series Game 6

Wacha is 5-0, 0.76 in his last five starts, allowing 22 baserunners in 35.2 IP in those five games (10 H, 12 BB); four of his last five starts stayed under total.

Lackey threw 17 pitches in a scoreless 8th inning Sunday; he is 2-1, 3.44 in his three playoff starts. Eight of his last eleven home starts stayed under total.

Cardinals were delayed several hours flying out of St Louis Tuesday, didn't get to Boston until 11pm or so; they're 3-4 on road in playoffs. Cardinals scored total of 12 runs in their seven playoff losses, 43 in their nine wins. Three of last four games in this series stayed under the total

Boston is 5-2 at Fenway during postseason; they're 2-4 in playoffs when they allow 4+ runs, 8-1 when they do not. Last time Red Sox won World Series at home, Babe Ruth was a defensive replacement-- 1918.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

ST LOUIS (106 - 72) at BOSTON (107 - 70) - 8:05 PM


Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 107-70 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 58-30 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 95-62 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 76-55 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 72-48 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

ST LOUIS is 106-72 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 106-72 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 84-45 (+26.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 50-22 (+23.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BOSTON is 188-181 (-45.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

WACHA is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LACKEY is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of St. Louis's last 14 games when playing Boston
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

St Louis at Boston
Wacha: St Louis is 26-10 SU after a loss by 2 runs or less
Lackey: 31-41 SU after a win by 2 runs or less

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

StatFox Super Situations

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ST LOUIS) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season 167-134 since 1997.  ( 55.5% | 65.1 units ) 32-30 this year.  ( 51.6% | 7.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

ST LOUIS is 28-13 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in Road games after a loss this season. The average score was: ST LOUIS (5.4) , OPPONENT (3.4)

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

World Series - Game 6

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (106-72) at BOSTON RED SOX (107-70) Line: Boston -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 7

The Red Sox return home Wednesday looking to knock off the Cardinals and clinch a World Series title in front of their home fans at Fenway Park for the first time since 1918.

Given the unusual endings to Game 3 and Game 4, Game 5 was quite normal as two Red Sox runs in the seventh proved decisive in a 3-1 victory. The Cardinals will be thrilled to have Michael Wacha (7-1, 2.22 ERA) on the mound for this all-important game, as the rookie right-hander has been brilliant this postseason with a 4-0 record in four starts to go along with a 1.00 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. In Game 2 at Boston, he gave up two runs in six innings to beat John Lackey for the win. Lackey (12-14, 3.51 ERA) will take the mound again in this one looking to avenge the last start, when he allowed three earned runs in 6.1 innings in the loss. He also got in some extra work in Game 4, throwing a hitless inning of relief.

Overall, the Red Sox have dominated at Fenway Park in 2013 with a 58-30 record (.659) while the Cardinals were strong on the road at 46-42 (.523). Returning to the AL will have big implications for both teams. For the Red Sox, it means David Ortiz, who could be on his way to the World Series MVP title with a ridiculous .733 BA, can return to DH while Mike Napoli slots in at first base. For the Cardinals, it should allow the ailing Allen Craig to DH while Matt Adams continues to play first.

Wacha (0.99 WHIP) seemingly gets better every start and now has 74 strikeouts, 25 walks and only six homers allowed in 81 innings. In his past three starts he has a 0.92 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Although he has been slightly worse on the road this year (2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), don’t expect that to be a problem with how he handled Fenway Park in his first try.

The one guy he has to watch out for is none other than Ortiz, who smacked a two-run shot in the sixth inning to give Boston its only runs of the game. In that contest, like many others, the St. Louis bullpen was tremendous, going three innings and giving up just one hit and no runs while striking out six. Cardinals relievers have a 2.20 ERA this postseason while keeping batters to a pithy .184 BA, fanning 43 batters in 45 innings.

Lackey (1.16 WHIP) is now pitching in his sixth postseason, placing a true veteran against a rookie. In 18 career postseason appearances (15 starts) he has a 3.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, going 5-5 with 73 strikeouts and 34 walks. Overall this season he struck out 181 and walked 45 in 207.2 innings, with the only scary part about his stat line being the 26 home runs he allowed. Lackey also pitched far better at home in 2013 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Fenway Park, going 7-4 (team 10-5) in those 15 starts.

Lackey was given a 2-1 lead by Ortiz’s home run in Game 2 but couldn’t hold on, with a sac-fly and error giving the Cardinals the lead for good in the bottom half of the inning. In his career, Lackey has done well against some of St. Louis’ key hitters including OFs Carlos Beltran (1-for-12) and Matt Holliday (1-for-10). And while the Cardinals bullpen has been good this postseason, the Boston bullpen has been even better, with a 1.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .216 opponents' BA and seven saves in 47 innings.

Check out more MLB Odds and Props at!

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 30

World Series Game 6 Odds and Pick
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS -- The Red Sox are on the verge of giving Boston its first World Series-clinching win at home since 1918. You remember, right? Babe Ruth was the pitcher, Fenway Park was just a baby, and World War I was nearing its conclusion.

If the St. Louis Cardinals can manage to keep the Standells ’Dirty Water’ from playing the next two nights and take Games 6 and 7, they would be the first team since the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates to overcome a 3-2 deficit and win the World Series on the road. The last six teams in the same situation have failed.

John Lackey is a -120 favorite in tonight’s Game 6 against rookie phenom Michael Wacha, and with two cracks at winning the World Series at home, Boston is a -440 favorite to do so. If Lackey takes care of business tonight and gets the win, he’d be the seventh starting pitcher in baseball history to win two World Series-clinching games, and the first to do it for different teams. Lackey won Game 7 for the Angels in 2002 against the Giants.

Lackey was a -113 favorite in Game 2 of this series and pitched very well for 6 1/3 innings. He left the game with a 2-1 lead, two runners on and in the hands of reliever Craig Breslow, who then promptly allowed Lackey’s two runners to score, and then another, and the Cardinals held on for a 4-2 win to tie the series at 1-1.

Lackey took the loss in that game, but it was his second straight outstanding start and his best two in a row since late May when he shut down the Twins and Indians in consecutive starts. Between his 1-0 win in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Tigers and his Game 2 performance, there lies most of the reason Lackey is a bigger favorite tonight against a streaking Wacha than he was the first time.

World Series: Cardinals at Red Sox (BOS leads 3-2) - 8:07 p.m. ET - TV: FOX
Game 6 starters: Michael Wacha (7-6, 2.26 ERA) vs. John Lackey (12-14, 3.49 ERA)
Game 6 odds: Red Sox -120, Total: 7 (UNDER -120)
Updated series price: Red Sox -440, Cardinals +360 (BOS opened-140)

But Wacha has been unbelievable. St. Louis fans have seen rookies like John Stuper in 1982 and Joe Magrane in 1987 pitch well in the Fall Classic, but Wacha is in an entirely different class as a rookie in the postseason – and not just for the Cardinals, for all baseball organizations. He’s made four postseason starts and won them all, allowing only 11 hits and three runs while striking out 28 over a span of 27 innings. His postseason ERA is 1.00.

In each of his last four starts, the big question has been, “Will he get caught up in the moment of the big stage and falter?,” and he’s answered that question with a big “No” each time. He handled a tough Pittsburgh crowd with a near no-hitter in the NLDS, beat the Dodgers twice without allowing a run and then won at Fenway in Game 2.

However, in Game 2 at Fenway, a David Ortiz two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth proved Wacha was human and gave the Red Sox a 2-1 lead. Wacha would have been the loser had Breslow not blown his duties in the top of the seventh for Boston. The Red Sox managed to work Wacha hard, taking four walks – the same amount he allowed in three previous starts combined – and also got his pitch count to 114 in only six innings.

Seeing Wacha a second time didn’t help the Dodgers much in the NLCS, but it’s still a proposition that favors the Red Sox. Ortiz now also has a feared bat protecting him with Mike Napoli back in the lineup after playing three games under NL rules and no DH at Busch Stadium.

We picked the Red Sox to win in six games, but we’re altering that selection because we can’t find much reason to doubt Wacha tonight. He is on a once-in-a-decade type of runs, where a hot pitcher continues to dominate.

On the other side, Lackey is getting praise because of his recent success, but there seems to be much more wiggle room for him to resort back to his normal self than for Wacha to be hit hard enough for the loss.

Can Lackey match goose eggs on the board again vs. Wacha? We don’t think so.

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