Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +9 over Green Bay

This line is based on last week’s sickening Monday Night game. In the history of Monday Night Football, never has a team looked as bad as the Vikings did and the G-Men didn’t look much better. The Vikings not only looked like they had never played together before but that they all just met in the high school cafeteria. Had this game been played before that one, the Packers would be -4½ here instead of 9. Regardless of the outcome, the Vikings are a must play this week because they hold the most value. Again, this number is grossly inflated based on one butt-ugly football game that the entire wagering population witnessed.

Besides, this is a huge rivalry game that is almost always close and it’s not like Green Bay is peaking. For the Pack, James Jones has been downgraded to doubtful and hasn't been able to practice. Josh Freeman is already ruled out because of a concussion and not merely because he appeared to have never played the position before. The Packers continue to lose players at a historic pace and now Aaron Rodgers has nobody to throw to. We all saw what happened when Tom Brady had nobody to throw to. It’s difficult to sustain drives and it’s difficult to finish them off. This is messy to forecast since the Packers have no players and the Vikings have no idea what to do with the ones they have but one thing we know for sure. The Vikes have to respond to that debacle last week. Freeman’s start brought the entire team down with him and so we’re throwing that game out the window. The Vikings seem to play better when Christian Ponder is behind center even though he throws more ducks than A&E pimps out each week. At least there is a comfort level with Ponder. In all of the years of handicapping NFL Football, we have never seen an overreaction like the one here against the Vikings and that makes them an automatic play.


Cleveland +7½ over KANSAS CITY

Last week we faded the Chiefs at home to Houston and will continue that fade this week because the Chiefs offense is not good enough to be spotting 7½ points to the Browns. There are other factors as well. The Chiefs are going to have to fight the urge to mail this one in after running their record to 7-0 and now at home against what the Chiefs likely perceive as a very bad team. That perception actually wouldn’t be inaccurate but K.C’s 7-0 record once again has them overvalued as the chalk. Other than its win over Jacksonville in the season opener, the Chiefs have not blown away anyone. Their 24-7 win over Oakland in Week 6 was a close game. Their 26-16 win over Philadelphia in Week 2 should have been 46-16 after Philly turned the ball over six times.

Offensively, the Chiefs just get by and rely on their outstanding defense to finish off opponents. That’s not conducive to spotting significant points. The Browns are decent against the pass and the Chiefs are not going to ever press their luck down field. Instead, the Chiefs will utilize Jamaal Charles with a heavy dose of running right, running left and running up the middle. Again, when an offense is incapable of big plays and relies mainly on its rushing game, those 7½ big points is a lot to overcome. And it’s not like the Chiefs are steaming or that they have a score to settle. K.C. is cruising along with a complacent record and games against Cleveland and Buffalo on deck almost assures them of a 9-0 record heading into the bye week.

Browns HC Rob Chudzinski still has not named the starting quarterback this week, always a bad sign when you already had one. Brandon Weeden's getting worse and adding a new penchant for interceptions with three over the last two losses. We will assume that Weeden gets another week but in the end - playing in Kansas City is not going to make anyone look good, much less the quarterback for the Browns. Jason Campbell may be named later but it’s not going to deter us either way. What we have here is a Cleveland team, whose stock is sinking fast and that has lost two in a row by 14 and 18 points respectively to Detroit (Matthew Stafford) and Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers). The Brownies defense will now take a huge step down in class against the Chiefs offense (Alex Smith), setting up this classic buy-low, sell high situation.


Jacksonville +16½ over San Francisco

How bad are the Jaguars? Not only are they 0-7, but their margin of losing has been by 26, 10, 28, 34, 14, 16 and 18 points. They may be the fourth best team in the state of Florida and we’re not taking about pro teams either. This team couldn’t even score a touchdown against Oakland. Jags fans (both of them) are counting down the days until they get the first pick in next year’s draft. At this point, they may as well sign Tim Tebow so they can sell some jerseys to the churchin’ up types. Nobody is betting on the Jagwires and it’s all for good reason.

With that, we’re not going to break down the X’s and O’s here because that would be just plain stupid. We’ll leave that to those network idiots like Dan Marino, Phil Sims, Terry Bradshaw, et all, who are seldom correct and will tell you that San Fran’s defense will stop Jacksonville’s offense. Well, this game is in London, England and for the 49ers, this game is more of a holiday than a football game. San Fran has a bye on deck and its only goal will be to show up, stay healthy and get a win. For Jacksonville, this is their Super Bowl. They have no fans at home and they’re loathed everywhere else. They have been embarrassed week after week. Surely, this group is not interested in going overseas to embarrass themselves again. Though they don’t have the horses, the Jags will bring it all this week in much the manner as they did against Denver as a 27-point pooch. Chad Henne did not score any touchdowns in his last two starts, and yes he threw three interceptions, but at least both games were over 300 passing yards. The beauty of being so bad is that opponents just want to win and then play the prevent defense. The 49ers figure to have that mindset here, which will allow the Jags to stay well within this margin.


Atlanta +121 over ARIZONA

Carson Palmer can’t run. Carson Palmer has no running game. Carson Palmer has thrown 11 picks in the past five weeks and the Cardinals offense is about as one-dimensional as they come. There's no disagreement here - everyone is disappointed with what Carson Palmer has brought to the Cardinals and he’s getting worse. He's only thrown eight touchdowns in seven games and never topped 300 yards since the season opener. Palmer was actually more productive in Oakland working with much less. Larry Fitzgerald playing injured doesn't help but fingers are starting to point to an unimaginative offense ran by first-year OC Harold Goodwin. What’s even more interesting is that the Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses to division rivals San Fran and Seattle and no team has won this season the week after facing the Seahawks. Arizona doesn’t figure to be the first.

Atlanta is getting very little respect because of its poor 2-6 record, not to mention its winless road record. However, those road losses occurred in New Orleans and Miami and the Falcons were in a position to win them both. The Dirty Birds have been in every game this season with their biggest margin of defeat being seven points. Matt Ryan has thrown two TD’s or more in every game this season and figures to throw for at least two more here. Even without Julio Jones and Roddy White, Ryan went off for 273 yards and three TD’s. Arizona is pure garbage. They have a sick looking offense and a defense that cannot defend against a strong passer. Matt Ryan fits that bill and these hungry Falcons should have little trouble defeating this unbalanced host that has no heartbeat. Wrong side favored.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Tony George

Cleveland / Kansas City Under 39.5

The Kansas City Chiefs stand alone in the NFL as the only unbeaten team remaining, who would have thought back in mid August?  Well Tony George did, as it was his top Win / Loss Futures play on the board where he took KC over 6.5 wins to the bank last week as KC got by a pesky Texans team at Arrowhead and won their 7th game.  The Browns roll into the loudest stadium in the NFL this Sunday with major Quarterback issues, no running game and no pass game against the NFL’s #1 ranked defense at home.  This is the last place Cleveland wants to be this weekend, I assure you.  The line is Kansas City by  7 in this one, the same number Kansas City could not cover last week against a Houston team starting a QB off the scout team.  Tony George says the value in this game not the point spread but the Totals Play.

Both defenses are solid, Kansas City can flat out get after the QB and lead the NFL in sacks on a record pace right now, and with their secondary limit big plays down the field.  Spread attacks and high octane offense like Dallas and Philly were completely rendered useless against this defense that has 4 Prop Bowlers from last year’s 2 win team on it.  At day’s end Kansas City’s offense is very suspect and the Browns’ defense is the strength of their team with 3 Top 10 rankings.  Points will be a premium, and with every game the noose gets tighter for KC as all eyes are upon this.  This is much like last week’s game against Houston, low scoring and tight and while the points are tempting to take, it is the UNDER which is far more tasty here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Joe Gavazzi

San Francisco -16.5 at Jacksonville

Little changed in the 24-6 Jacksonville home loss to San Diego last week; outrushed 158 to 78 with a negative turnover margin for the contest. The Jags have now lost all 7 games by at least 10 points. They enter today on a run of 2-10 ATS, including 1-6 ATS this year. The fact this game is in London will pique the 49ers interest enough to keep them motivated throughout. Following a pair of lethargic performances early in the year, the Niners have returned to overland dominance. In winning and covering four straight games by a margin of 132-51, they have outrushed opponents by an average margin of 175-82 per game and profited from a +8 net turnover margin. Must not ignore the fact that Niners’ HC Harbaugh is 20-4 ATS vs non-division foes.

Dallas at Detroit -3

Without meaningful, statistical edges for either team, it is tough to elevate this to Top Play status. The situation, however, clearly favors Detroit. Each team enters at 4-3 SU; Dallas is off a Denver shootout followed by divisional wins vs Washington and Philly by a combined 48-19 margin. Detroit looked like their turnaround season was going to continue on this field last week, but a 28-yard punt followed by a 54-yard field goal sent the Lions to a crushing defeat. Far more than last year’s 4-12 SU team, this has been a resilient Lions’ outfit. They stand 2-0 SU ATS following a defeat, with road wins of 27-20 at Washington and 31-17 at Cleveland. That is a good omen, as they suit up on their home field again this week where they are 9-4 ATS vs non-division opponents.  Dallas RB Murray (knee) and DE Ware (quad) remain questionable for this contest at this writing.

NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE DAY

New York Giants at Philadelphia -5.5

Philly was the league’s biggest underperformer last week, with first QB Foles and then QB Barkeley (3 INTs) at the controls. The end result was a 17-3 home field loss to Dallas. Not all that easy to expect a bounce-back for a Philly team who has failed to cover 11 consecutive games on their home field. QB Vick (hamstring) is expected to get the call this week, though it is unknown at press time if he will be fully recovered. Mental edge to division rival New York, who lost this matchup just 3 weeks ago 36-21. The G-Men played a bit better on MNF in their 23-7 victory over the Vikings. Or was it the Vikings who played poorly? In any case, the Giants found a winning formula, combining a +2 net TO margin with a 64-30 advantage in the running game. It will impede their overland efforts if RB Jacobs (hamstring) is not in the lineup. It must be noted that for the season, Philly is running 32 times per game for 163/5.1, while the Giants are only running 21 times a game for 67/3.2. Though a case could be made for a New York letdown following their inaugural win of the season on MNF, it has been historically profitable to back division road dogs following an appearance under the Monday night lights. Nothing stronger than this rating, because of the potential overland advantage which may be authored by the Eagles.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Bob Balfe

Detroit Lions -3

Detroit is coming off a tough loss to the Bengals last week. I think the difference in that game is Cincinnati actually has a good offensive and defensive line. The Cowboys won’t be able to get a pass rush with their injuries on defense and the big physical receivers for the Lions will have all day at home to get wide open. Detroit has a very solid defensive line that I believe will make Tony Romo uncomfortable this afternoon. Take the Lions at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Dave Cokin

Atlanta vs Arizona
Play: Arizona -2.5

If you recall last Sunday’s analysis of the Texans-Chiefs game, I made a case for Houston based as much as anything on how I knew what the masses would do as soon as I saw the opening line.

Here we go again. The Arizona Cardinals have shown up as small home chalk as they host the Atlanta Falcons. Without any examination of the game whatsoever, there is no question as to which team would command the vast majority of the tickets punched. Note that when I reference this, I’m only talking about the percentages on the wagers, not the dollars. There are games played every week in both college and the NFL where there might be 75% of the total wagers on one side, but the majority of the dollars are on the 25% side.

And so here we have the Falcons getting pounded by the bettors as if the game has already been played. It’s not difficult to see why. Atlanta is still perceived as a good team, a playoff contender at the very least. The Cardinals are, well, the Cardinals.

The actual reality is that the Falcons are 2-4, and winless on the road. The Cardinals are 3-4, and 2-1 at home. That’s a really simplified observation, and a little misleading as the metrics indicate the Falcons are indeed the slightly superior team. That said, it’s sure not a slam dunk.

If you were to ask me what my favorite betting scenario is, I have the immediate answer. I love fading public underdogs, regardless of the sport. Obviously, these bets don’t always win. But it’s also my contention that if you just blindly bet the favorite when the dog is getting 70%+ of the ticket count, you’re winning at a pretty impressive clip. That’s going to be the case on this game. So while I think this game is pretty close to a coin flip on the analysis, I’m going to have no problem grabbing the Cardinals today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Chris Jordan

My free play for Sunday is on the Miami Dolphins getting it done in New England, as this AFC East rivalry will be closer than most think.

Both come into this one having struggled most recently, with the Dolphins losing their last three and the Patriots dropping two of their last three. New England's lone win in there, a last-second win over the Saints.

Though the Pats have won the last six meetings, I don't trust their defense, which isn't as threatening as it used to be and will have a problem in containing Miami's Ryan Tannehill, who threw a career-high three scoring passes last Sunday. Look for the Dolphins to balance things out by running the ball against the Patriots defense, which has been vulnerable to runs up middle.

On defense, the Fins will have a field day, mark my words. This is where the Patriots have had problems, especially on third down. After going 1 for 12 last week against the Jets, New England is now 7 for 39 on third-down conversions in its last three games.

Sorry, but this will be closer than most expect. Take the underdog.

2♦ MIAMI

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is for the points to ring up at Sports Authority Field when Mike Shanahan returns to Denver with his Washington Redskins.

After playing 3 straight Unders, Washington revved up the offense last week with nearly 500 yards of total offense as they combined with Chicago for 86 points in the easiest Over of the week.

More of the same this week as they take on a Denver team that is coming off their first loss of the season last Sunday night, yet still managed to post 33 points in the setback, as the Broncos  made it a perfect 7-for-7 Over the total for the season.

Both teams defenses have proved to be quite vulnerable for the majority of the year, and while this is the biggest total on the Week Eight schedule, I think there is little choice here but to play the Over and sit back and watch the offenses have their way.

3♦ WASHINGTON-DENVER OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Craig Davis

Today's free play is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Detroit Lions as three-point dogs in a game I'm asking you to buy the 1/2 point up to +3 1/2 in case of the Detroit FG win.

Dallas has definitely surprised me to this point.

They have won three straight games since an ugly loss to San Diego, scoring with a more balanced attack than they had at the beginning of the year.

It was all Tony Romo early on, but now that DeMarco Murray and Joseph Randle have opened things up for Romo by running the ball effectively, it's made Dallas a more balanced offense.

These two teams are fairly even, but Tony Romo has some unfinished business to take care of in this game. If you'll remember the last time these two teams faced each other, the Cowboys had a 24-point lead, but a couple of Tony Romo third quarter interceptions let Detroit get right back in the game, and eventually the Lions would come away with a miraculous 34-30 come-from-behind win when they had no business being in that game.

These two offenses will match each other punch for punch offensively, but I have a tad more faith in Dallas's defense after watching them against Philly last week.

Take Dallas as your free play of the day.

4♦ DALLAS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Brad Wilton

My Sunday free play is the underdog Giants to cover at the Eagles.

Hats off to New York, as Big Blue recorded their first straight up winner on Monday night when they took care of the hapless Vikings in a 23-7 win and cover. Can the G-Men make it two straight wins?

Could be, as Philadelphia comes in quite thin at quarterback with Mike Vick and his injured frame back under center while Nick Foles sits it out with concussion-like symptoms. The Eagles did win 36-21 at MetLife Stadium in early October in a game that really could have gone either way, but the problem facing Philly is the fact that last Sunday's loss to Dallas at Lincoln Financial was their 9th in a row straight up in their own backyard.

That's right, Philadelphia is on a 9 game home losing skid, and an 11 game losing skid at home versus the line. You also consider that the Giants have gone 5-2 against the spread their last 7 visits to the Linc, and I think you have to take the points in this one.

4♦ N.Y. GIANTS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Brett Atkins

Let's take the Kansas City Chiefs as a free play tonight, as I think their defense is going to swarm the Browns and suffocate them en route to another resounding win. The AFC West leaders are the league's only undefeated team, and yet most power polls have Denver and Seattle ranked 1 and 2.

I don't know when the Chiefs will start getting their respect, but it can't come soon enough, as that defense is deadly.

The Chiefs, who are 8-3-1 against Browns in Kansas City, have the fifth-best defense in the league, led by the third-best passing D. Kansas City's stop unit has not allowed more than 17 points in game and the team leads the NFL in turnover differential (plus-11).

Last week the Browns lost to the Packers, 31-13, and now to have to play this game on the road, I just don't see them stepping up here.

Lay the points.

4♦ KANSAS CITY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Sean Michaels

Gave you an easy comp winner last night on Texas in revenge at TCU.

Gave you an easy comp winner last Sunday on San Francisco at Tennessee.

12-5 roll with these comp plays heading into today's selection on Arizona (-2') at home against Atlanta.

I know the Rams have lost two in a row, but those losses did come against the best of the NFC West, San Fran and Seattle. Having a couple of extra days prep time following the Thursday night loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago can only help Bruce Arians' squad.

Atlanta got a gift from the schedule-makers last Sunday when it hosted winless Tampa Bay. The Falcons held on for a 31-23 win to snap a three-game skid.

The Falcons continue to struggle defensively. The 23 points they allowed to the sad-sack Bucs matched a season low. They had allowed 30, 30 and 27 during their losing skid. With no pass rush to bother Carson Palmer, the Cards should be able to do some damage through the air just like everyone else has in scorching Atlanta's secondary.

On the injury front, the Falcons - who are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road outings - should have Steven Jackson back in action. But his return will not be enough to compensate for the absence of receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones.

Big, big game for Arizona as a win squares the team's record at .500 heading into a bye week. They've already beaten the Lions (25-21) and Panthers (22-6) at home and hung tough with Seattle (34-22 loss).

2♦ ARIZONA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Harry Bondi

SAN FRANCISCO (-14.5) over Jacksonville

It does not matter that this game is being played in England or on the moon the Jaguars have been non competitive in all their games this year going 1-6 ATS with their only cover coming when they were the biggest underdog in NFL history at Denver! This line is much more manageable and with nothing but a bye week ahead for the Niners we expect a fully focused effort from Jim Harbaugh's boys. Take San Fran over Jacksonville.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Sam Martin

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

Bad spot for the Jets, coming into this game on the road at Cincinnati in a big letdown spot after upsetting New England with a huge second-half comeback (and winning on a questionable call to boot). That win will easily be the Jets biggest win of the year, and we're not convinced they can come back one week later and duplicate that effort against the Bengals today. Cincy has won three straight and you can't beat the Bengals on the ground - you need to pass on them to beat them. That's not the way the Jets are build and we'll back the Bengals to win this game easily. 5* Play on Cincinnati.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

John Ryan

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Oakland Raiders

The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will win this game by 3 or more points. The Steeler defense has played well, especially considering just how poor the offensive has been this season. The same can be stated about the Raiders. However, much of the woes of the Raider offense has been attributed to a revolving door of OL players. This has been in large part due to injuries. However, the OL that will start today matches up very well against the Steelers defensive front. The Steelers best defender has been LaMarr Woodley, who ahs the third best pass rushing productivity grade among 3-4 linebackers having only rushed 64% of the snaps. The Raiders have weapons to make certain he keeps to that precentage or even lower. Moreover, Steelers former second-round pick Worlids and rookie first-rounder Jarvis Jones have struggled to fill the void left by James Harrison?s departure. The pair has combined for one sack, three hits, and nine hurries over six games and their inconsistent play will be exploited by the Raiders. The Raiders can also use a RB to 'read' Woodley and then release to the flat, if he drops into converage. If Woodley rushes the QB, then the Rb will offer double-team help or 'chip' blocks to then get into space for screen and simple to complete passes. The other asset for the Raiders is the athleticsm of QB Pryor and WR Moore. If the Steelers bring pressure, it almost certainly has to be form the perimieter in a 'sam/will' scheme. Pryor will only run from pressure up the middle. With pressure coming from the perimeter, it offers the opportunity for Pryor to thorw flag patterns to Moore over the middle of the field knowing he has man coverage and no deep safelty help. The SIM sghows that the Steelers ground game will be weak projecting 50 to 75 yards. In past games, the Raiders are 6-1 ATS the past three seasons and 24-5 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 50 to 75 rushing yards. Take the Raiders.  

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Freddy Wills

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions    
Play: Detroit Lions -3

The Lions are a tough team to beat on the road and though the Cowboys offense and defense has been clicking in back to back weeks they were still -220 yards against the Redskins. They also face a healthy QB this week and they'll play banged up. Cowboys have too many injuries to fight off right now and I think the Lions come up with a big win without Demarcus Ware pressuring Stafford it could be a long day for the Cowboys defense. We have not seen how good this Lions offense can be, because of injuries but with both Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush active today we are about to find out.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Doug Upstone

Giants vs. Eagles
Play: Over 49½

On Sunday Play OVER on home teams against the total like Philadelphia, out-rushing their opponents by one or more yards per carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. Over the past five seasons, this totals system is 28-7, 80 percent.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Andre Gomes

Jets / Bengals Under 41.5

Cincinnati is coming from two road wins at Buffalo and at Detroit. Their game against the Bills (#1 fast paced team) went to overtime and then, they faced the Lions, a good pass offense team that saw Calvin Johnson have a Godlike second half in that game. On the other hand, the Jets are coming from a mega win on overtime against the Patriots, where they showed once again their conservative offense, with 33 pass plays and 52(!) rushing plays! Chris Ivory carried the football 34 times last week, so I believe he will struggle to make an impact today after such an effort last week. As usual, Cincinnati's defense is a top 10 team against both the pass and the run and so, I believe the Jets' offense will struggle in here, in a clear emotional letdown for them.

On the other hand, I don't expect the Bengals' offense to cause any issues to the Jets' defense on the running game. The main reason for that is the fact that the Jets' run defense has been insanely good this season, with a defensive rush DVOA of -46.9%, -50.1%, -52.5%, -35.9%, -23.7%, -27.6% and +11.1% on their games this season! A.J. Green is Cincinnati's main and almost unique target on offense and the Jets with Antonio Cromartie should limit Green decently today. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

NEW ORLEANS -11 over Buffalo: Coming off a bye week the Saints have been awesome of late as they have won their last 4 post bye games and have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg in the process. Making it even worse for the Bills in this one is the fact that prior to the bye week the Saints had that awful last minute loss to Brady and the Patriots and they have been itching to get back on the field ever since. The Bills are 3-4 on the year and despite the fact that they lost in OT vs Cincinnati and beat Miami in their last 2 games, they have been outgained by 93 ypg in the 2 games. The Saints have been awesome at home, going 3-0, while outscoring foes by 20 ppg and outgaining them by 120.7 ypg on this field. The Bills come in 18th in total offense and 30th in passing offense and will be without Spiller, which will hurt the ground game and allow a very good Saint's defense to tee off on rookie QB Thad Lewis. On Defense the Bills are not that good either, ranking 24th overall and 21st vs the pass. On the other side we have a Saints squad that is 6th overall and 2nd in passing on offense, while their much improved defense comes in 11th overall, 9th vs the pass and 4th in points allowed (17.2 ppg). A week to prepare for the Saints and coming of that tough loss to the Pats before the bye should have New Orleans primed for a 17+ point win here.   

3 UNIT PLAYS

Denver/ Washington Over 58.5: Can they really make an OU line high enough for Bronco Games? All 7 Denver games have gone over the total this year and they have done so by an average of 18.1 ppg. The Broncos have the best offense in the league, averaging 42.6 ppg and 469.3 ypg on the year. They also have the top passing offense at 361.3 ypg and will be facing a Washington defense that has allowed 262.8 ypg through the air, which is 22nd in the league. Last week RG3 finally looked like his old self and he will be going up against a porous Denver defense that is 30th in yards allowed and 32nd in passing yards allowed. Couple of trends of note here... The Over is 17-5-1 if a team scored 40 and allowed 40 points in their last game, while AFC favorites in game 6 on out off their first loss of the year have gone 10-0 to the Over the last 10 times it has come up. This game has 65+ points written all OVER it. 

Detroit/ Dallas Over 50.5: This one should be a fun one. The Lions have gone Over the total in the last 6 game 8's, while we note that since 2008 all non-divisional home favs off a SU loss with an OU line of 43 or higher, have gone 10-2 to the Over if they are playing the week before their bye. The Lions come in ranked 7th in total offense and 5th in passing offense and will be facing an injury riddled Dallas defense that is 29th overall and 30th vs the pass. For Dallas, they come in at 13th overall and 8th in passing, while the Lions are at 31st in total defense and 28th vs the pass. Detroit home games have averaged a whopping 60.4 ppg and 819.3 ypg, while the last 4 in this series has put up 60.8 ppg, with each of those games hitting at least 54 points. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks.

2 UNIT PLAYS

NEW ENGLAND -6 over Miami: This is an angry Patriots team as they are coming off a loss to the hated Jets and they are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games off a loss. The Patriot also should have their full compliment of receivers back this week, with the return of Amendola, plus Gronkowski has a week of play under his belt, so he should have a better game in this one, even though he caught 8 passes for 114 yards in his first game. Miami has problems on the OL and that hasn't helped Tannehill stay upright and the Patriots do have a solid pass rush which should pressure him into some mistakes. On the defensive side of the ball the Canes are very poor vs the pass, allowing 269 ypg, which is 25th in the league. Miami has lost 3 in a row and while the last 2 have been close losses I don't feel this one will be. The Patriots are finally healthy on offense and should exploit a weak Miami Pass defense. Pats by 10+ here.

Kansas City/ Cleveland Under 39: Boy this has the makings of an ugly defensive battle. The Browns come in ranked 7th in total defense, 6th vs the pass and 9th vs the Run, while allowing 22.3 ppg. On offense they are bad as they are 26th overall and 26th in scoring, averaging just 18.7 ppg. The Browns will also be turning to their 3rd QB of the year in Jason Campbel, so expect some growing pains there. The Chiefs defense is one of the best in the league, ranking 5th overall, 3rd vs the pass and 1st in points allowed 11.6 ppg, while on offense they are 26th in passing and are very conservative looking to run more, while relying on their defense to win games. KC home games have averaged just 33.8 ppg and that about the most I see here. 

1 UNIT PLAYS

Pittsburgh -1 over OAKLAND: They have won 2 in a row and have don't behind their defense that has allowed just 22 points in the last 2 games. Big Ben is also looking better and has been helped of late by the running game with Bell now healthy. That will help this offensive line for sure. The Raider OL is a mess and dealing with injuries. That should help the Steelers put plenty of pressure on Pryor and force him to some mistakes. The Steelers are the better team here and the Raiders are horrible off a bye week (Lost 10 in a row). Look for Pitt to win their 3rd game in a row here. 

New York Giants +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles don't really play well at home and the Giants come in with momentum, following their Monday night win. This is a team that is known for putting some wins together, following a rough start. The Giants finally had a complete game on Monday night and Eli has had some good success vs the Eagles, with 18 Tds in his last 6 games vs them. Vick will be back for the Eagles, but still is it enough to jumps start this offense that has been floundering of late. The Giants have already seen this offense and that should help them prepare better for this one. The Giants should get revenge here for their loss at home earlier in the year to the Eagles. 

Top 5 Power Angles For Today (13-7)

New England is 11-0 ATS vs teh AFC East off a SU Fave loss. Play On New England -6 over Miami

The Giants are 8-0 ATS off a Monday night game, when facing an opponent off a SU loss. Play on NY Giants +5.5 over Philadelphia

New Orleans is 11-0 ATS at home vs a Non-conf opponent that is off a SU dog win. Play On New Orleans -11 over Buffalo.

San Francisco is 8-2 to the Over vs winless teams from game 5 on out and they're 10-3 to the Over as favorites of 11 or more. Play San Francisco/ Jacksonville Over 40

The Atlanta Falcons are 10-2 to the Over in their last 12 vs the NFC West. Play Atlanta/ Arizona Over 46

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

SPORTS WAGERS

COLUMBUS -½ +143 over Anaheim

Regulation only. The Ducks are 8-3 and they have been playing well the entire season so far but we’re not so sure this is the best spot for them. To begin, Anaheim will play the fourth game of a long, eight-game trip after games in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. After this game, it’s on to play in Philadelphia, Boston, Buffalo and finally New York at newly renovated Madison Square Gardens. Once could argue that of the eight games of this trip, this is the only one that is not in a true hockey city. There is no doubt that the Ducks are going to take a breather at some point during this trip and this looks like the place it could occur, especially after games against the Leafs, Habs and Sens. Incidentally, Jakob Silfverberg broke his hand in Ottawa and will now miss some significant time. That has to hurt because he was playing well on a strong secondary line.

Meanwhile, the Jackets are gaining steam. After struggling out of the gate, Columbus has now reeled off three in a row over Vancouver, New Jersey and Toronto while outscoring that trio 12-4. The Jackets last game, a 5-2 win over the Maple Leafs was their best game of the season so far. We also like that the Jackets are 11-2 over their past 13 games against the West and this is a strong situational spot to extend that impressive record to 11-3.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Wunderdog

Winnipeg at Colorado
Pick: Winnipeg +1.5

Winnipeg is in Colorado with a 2-1-1 road record, and off a 2-1 win at Dallas as a +130 dog. This team is playing hard, with four one-goal games in the last five contests.  They rank 13th in penalty killing, and the last game the Jets' penalty kill was excellent in killing off four chances. Colorado is still trying to recover from a tough stretch, playing five of seven on the road. After coming home from a 3-game trip they went 1-1 against Dallas and Detroit as chalk of -175 and -140, winning 3-2 and losing 4-2. This is a similar situation, home for a 2-game stand after a 2-game trip. Avalanche LW Cody McLeod is still out,  serving the fourth contest of the five-game suspension for his hit from behind on Detroit's Niklas Kronwall. When these Central Division rivals meet, the Jets are 5-2 in the last seven meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Colorado. Plus the road team is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings. The value here is with the underdog Jets on the Puck-Line at -155.

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