Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Dave Price

Miami/North Carolina Under 64

Oddsmakers have set the bar a little too high for this one considering both teams have had a bye week to prepare. We haven't seen more than 60 total points scored in the last nine meetings between these teams and only 32 total points in last season's matchup. You want to play the under on home teams that have a losing record and have been beaten by the spread by 35 or more total points in their last five games if the total is greater than or equal to 63.0. Doing so has produced a 26-6 (81.2%) result the last 10 seasons. We have seen an average posted total of 66.7 in this situation but only 57.7 total points scored. Take the under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Joe Duffy

Seattle vs. Arizona
Play: Under 41

As far as why tonight’s game will be low scoring, neither squad is fast-paced. Seattle averages 64.3 plays per game while Arizona just 61.8. Again, winning totals bets in both basketball and football is much more about pace than offensive and defensive competence.

But the qualify of such is still integral. On that note, Arizona has a splendid defense and not much of an offense. Arizona averaging just 5.4 yards per play to teams normally allowing 5.9. Seattle holds teams to .3 yards per play below normal average.

Short weeks continue to produce sloppy offenses. Seattle is struggling in the redzone. While “leaving points on the field” is generally a correctable mistake and indicates an upside, not in the short turnaround our long-term experience and research manifests.

After Carson Palmer’s second interception last week, claims made adjustments on fade routes. He called over his WRs, told them he will make those adjustments and threw no INT after that.
Why is that good for the under? He is never going to be playmaker, but if truly corrected, he becomes efficient, eats up time and Arizona becomes a poor man’s version of Seattle. The Hawks offense is very good, but it built on proficiency, not the modern day explosiveness.

The total is fairly low, but went about 40, which is a key number for betting totals.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Bruce Marshall

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche
Pick: Detroit Red Wings

The Avs are off to a flying start with wins in their first six games for new coach Patrick Roy. One reason is GK Semyon Varlamov, who's won all five of his starts with a 1.20 GAA and .965 save percentage, as Colorado has allowed a league-low six goals. Meanwhile, Detroit might need a second straight strong performance in net from number two goalie Jonas Gustavsson on Tuesday, who made 36 saves in a 2-1 win over Columbus. Gustavsson has started in place of Jimmy Howard for two consecutive contests.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Jeff Benton

Thursday freebie is the Over in tonight's ACC battle between Miami and North Carolina.

The Hurricanes have been a definite Over team this season, as Al Golden's charges come into Chapel Hill having played Overs in each of their last 3 games. The 'Canes are also averaging over 45 points per game.

Look for the Hurricanes to come close to reaching their average again tonight, as the Tar Heels have allowed 27 points or more in 4 of their 5 outings this season.

North Carolina has played Overs in 6 of their last 7 home games, and the teams have combined to play Overs in each of the last 4 series meetings at Chapel Hill.

Going to stick with the Over trends and play Miami and North Carolina to make their way Over the posted price this Thursday night.

2♦ MIAMI (FLA)-NORTH CAROLINA OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Craig Davis

Thursday's free play is the Tigers at home over the Red Sox.

Free play of the day on the Detroit Tigers in Game 5 (their final home game of the series) tonight vs. the Boston Red Sox.

There's no doubt this should be a pitching matchup with very little offense (total in Vegas is between 5 1/2 and 6), but I give the edge slightly to Detroit based on last night's win (momentum) and the fact they are playing their final game of this series at Comerica.

Manager Jim Leyland made a lineup adjustment, and while that might not have been the reason for the seven runs last night, it seemed to work... and fire up his offense.

But ultimately, I'm still banking on the Tigers starting rotation to do their thing... DOMINATE.

The starters have allowed a mere THREE runs while striking out 42 in just 27 innings of work in this series... something we never thought could happen to the Boston offense. You might be wondering about Games 3 and 4, but in Game 3 it was the bullpen that imploded... and in Game 4 the Red Sox might have had 12 hits, but they were only 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position.

Anibal Sanchez (1-1, 4.35 ERA) pitched six innings of no-hit ball and struck out 12 while earning a tough win in Game 1, and I have no reason to think he won't duplicate those efforts in Game 5 tonight. He simply needs to lower the walks and he'll have a much better chance of pitching into the 8th inning.

John Lester counters for Boston, and while he's been good this post-season, he doesn't want to see much of Miguel Cabrera. Miggy is 11 for 21 with a homer, two doubles and six walks in his career off Lester. And yes, that includes the post-season.

Take Detroit as your free play of the day.

2♦ DETROIT

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Brad Wilton

Thursday's free play is the Detroit Tigers to take the the 3-2 series lead back to Beantown over the weekend.

Jim Leyland woke up a slumbering attack last night, as the Tigers erupted for 5 runs in the second inning en-route to their 7-3 win to level the series at 2-2.

Now it is Anibal Sanchez who worked 6 scoreless while striking out a dozen in Saturday's Game One Tigers 1-0 win over the Red Sox.

Jon Lester worked a quality game as well for Boston, and may very well be tough again tonight, but I prefer siding with the host here.

Taking the Tigers to get the win behind Sanchez, as the revamped lineup produces once again.

2♦ DETROIT

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

NORTH CAROLINA + 9.5 over Miami: Gotta feel that the Heels will really show up for this nationally televised game. I know Miami is off to an impressive start, but other than Florida who have they really beat? Ok Last week the Beat Georgia Tech, but did struggle defensively in the game and prior to that game they also had wins over FAU, Savannah State and South Florida. Not Exactly murderers row, or even close to that. Tonight they get their first real test in a hostile venue and I feel that gives a desperate Heels squad an advantage. The Heels have the 23rd ranked passing game in the nation, despite their 1-4 start and yes Miami has the top ranked passing defense in the nation, but again they haven't been tested. Florida has no passing game, Georgia Tech doesn't run and well their other 3 teams are just pitiful in the passing game. This will be their first test vs the pass. The Heels also get starting QB Bryn Renner back for this one, which should give them a boost as well. This is a bad spot for Miami, playing in a real hostile environment for the first time this year vs a team that needs a win badly. Let's also note that Miami is 3-13 ATS off BB SU & ATS wins, while the Heels are 11-2 ATS off three straight losses. I would not be surprised to see the outright upset here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Harry Bondi

ARIZONA (+5) over Seattle

It's monster revenge for the Cardinals. The last time these two teams met the Seahawks embarrassed Arizona by running up the score in a 58-0 victory in Seattle. The Cards haven't forgotten and have had this game circled since the preseason. In the other meeting last year Arizona pulled off a 20-16 victory as a home dog of three points and we would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. As good as Seattle and QB Russell Wilson have been the last year-plus, they haven't been nearly as impressive on the road as they have been at home. In his career at home, Wilson has averaged 30.5 points per game with a 22-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio while on the road the team averages 20.3 points per game with a 12-to-10 ratio. Add in the fact that Pete Carroll is 6-15 ATS as a road favorite with the Seahawks and we'll gladly take the home dog here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

Wunderdog

Miami at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina +10

Folks, this line is inflated. North Carolina can hang in this game. The Heels will have QB Bryn Renner back in action after he missed the Virginia Tech game with a foot injury. Despite the 1-4 record, I expect North Carolina to be plenty excited for this opportunity to make their season, and it is happening before a national audience on Thursday Night. Miami hasn't been as clean coming into this one as their 5-0 record would have you believe. They have committed four turnovers in each of their last two games. Miami has lived on a lot of home cookin' as their only road game of the season was at disappointing South Florida, and this one won't be easy. The Heels have been excellent at defending home turf against good teams as they are 16-5 ATS here in their last 21 vs. a winning team here. The dog is also 8-1-1 ATS in the last ten in this series. This is a huge game for the Tar Heels and they've had two full weeks to prepare. Over 80% of the bets on this game are coming in on Miami but I think this one is closer than it may look. We are getting line value on the home dog. Take the points on North Carolina.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 17

OC Dooley

Philadelphia Flyers +145

The two teams in this contest are at the opposite sides of the spectrum as Pittsburgh has won 5 of 6 contests bolstered by superstar Sidney Crosby who already leads the league in overall point production with twelve. While the Penguins offense has tallied at least three-goals per contest woeful Philadelphia (1-6) is the only side in all of hockey whose offense has yet to reach that figure. While the Flyers have already fired a head coach who once led the franchise to a Stanley Cup Finals berth, the team has just announced that Chris Pronger (last played in 2011) will not return on the heels of 13 different surgeries for a serious eye injury and concussion. Pronger is one of only two players ever to win both the Hart and Norris trophies with legendary Bobby Orr as the only other to pull off the trick. While tonight’s game appears to be a mismatch the bottom line is that a HATED in-state rival is visiting Philadelphia this evening. In the past three years when off a very close loss of “one” goal Philadelphia has made bettors a fortune (9-1) in the ensuing contest

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