MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

Cardinals at Dodgers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (N/A)

St. Louis leads series 3-1.

The St. Louis Cardinals are one win away from their 19th trip to the World Series. The Cardinals will attempt to lock up the National League pennant behind Joe Kelly when they visit the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 5 of the NL Championship Series on Wednesday. St. Louis is riding its excellent pitching in the series and finally got something out of Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday in the 4-2 triumph in Game 4.

Carpenter and Holliday were a combined 2-for-23 in the first three games but totaled three hits and combined for three RBIs to help the Cardinals take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Dodgers are getting their own solid pitching but are lacking something on offense, where Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez are playing through pain. Ramirez (fractured rib) went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and was in noticeable pain before being removed on Tuesday.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s with clear skies and winds blow SW at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63)

Kelly went up against Greinke in Game 1 and held his own, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five in six innings. The 25-year-old owns a power sinker that helped him generate 11 ground balls in Game 1 and 19 in two postseason outings. Kelly was a better pitcher on the road during the regular season, going 5-1 with a 2.07 ERA in 19 games - seven starts.

Greinke surrendered a total of eight hits in 14 innings during his two postseason starts and was at his best against the Cardinals in Game 1, striking out 10 while allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings. The Dodgers’ struggling offense is the only thing keeping the former Cy Young Award winner from a win in the playoffs. Greinke went 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA in 14 starts at home during the regular season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.
* Dodgers are 12-2 in Greinke's last 14 home starts.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Kelly's last 7 starts overall.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Ramirez did not take a pain-killing injection before Game 4 and will be a game-time decision Wednesday.

2. St. Louis held a 3-1 lead in the NLCS over the San Francisco Giants last season before dropping three straight.

3. Los Angeles suffered 4-1 losses in each of its last two trips to the NLCS (2008 and 2009) and is looking for its first trip to the World Series since 1988.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

Red Sox at Tigers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-123, 7)

The Boston Red Sox have scored in just four innings of the American League Championship Series but can take a 3-1 series lead if they can topple the host Detroit Tigers on Wednesday night. Boston’s Mike Napoli homered off Justin Verlander for the lone run in Game 3 and it gave the Red Sox consecutive wins, counting their epic Game 2 comeback. The Tigers’ pitchers have accumulated 43 strikeouts, a record through three games of a Championship Series.

Two of the first three games were decided by 1-0 scores, a stunner considering Boston and Detroit were the two highest-scoring teams in the majors in the regular season. “The runs are pretty stingy,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. “This is what it’s about in postseason – is good pitching.” Boston is batting just .133 in the series, the lowest mark through three games in Championship Series history. Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz is 1-for-10 with the hit being his memorable game-tying grand slam in Game 2.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Doug Fister (14-9, 3.67)

Peavy hasn’t won a postseason game in his career but did pitch a solid 5 2/3 innings – giving up one run and five hits – in the AL Division Series against Tampa Bay to lower his postseason ERA to 8.22. He is 4-5 with a 4.83 ERA in 12 career starts against the Tigers, winning his lone outing this season against Detroit as a member of the Chicago White Sox. Peavy is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA in five career outings at Comerica Park.

Fister received a no-decision in his ALDS outing against Oakland, allowing three runs and seven hits in six innings. He tossed seven innings of four-hit shutout ball to beat Boston on Sept. 2 but was pounded for six runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in June. Fister is 2-4 with a 4.36 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Red Sox are 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Detroit.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Detroit starters Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer and Verlander combined to allow two runs and six hits with 35 strikeouts over 21 innings.

2. Napoli broke out of a slump with his sixth career postseason homer – he’s 3-for-21 with 10 strikeouts in the current postseason.

3. Tigers DH Victor Martinez suffered a quadriceps injury in the ninth but expects to play in Game 4. He is 4-for-11 in the series.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

Wednesday LCS Action
VegasInsider.com

St. Louis at Los Angeles

Game 1 - Cardinals 4, Dodgers 3
Game 2 - Cardinals 1, Dodgers 0
Game 3 - Dodgers 3, Cardinals 0
Game 4 - Cardinals 4, Dodgers 2
Game 5 - Today
Game 6* - Thursday October 18
Game 7* - Friday October 19

* - If Neccessary

Series recap:

The underdog has won three of four games, including St. Louis cashing as +120 'dogs in Tuesday's 4-2 victory. The 'under' has hit in each of the last three games following an 'over' in the series opener.

Game 5 Pitching Matchups

St. Louis - Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.73 ERA)


-- The Cardinals are 6-3 in his last nine starts, including an extra-innings victory in Game 1. Kelly tossed six innings and allowed six hits and two earned runs, while leaving the game tied at 2-2. St. Louis scored the game-winning run in the 12th inning as the Cards won for the third time in the home 'dog role with Kelly starting.
-- St. Louis won five of Kelly's eight road starts this season, but went 1-2 in the underdog role. Kelly is originally from Anaheim, so this will be his first start in his native Southern California.
-- The Cardinals have hit the 'over' in each of Kelly's last four road outings, while the Redbirds have plated at least four runs in five of his previous six away starts.

Los Angeles - Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63 ERA)

-- The former Cy Young Award winner has failed to win a playoff game in two starts, while picking up a no-decision in the Game 1 defeat at St. Louis. Greinke is making his first home start in the playoffs, as the Brewers went 2-0 in his two home outings in the 2011 postseason.
-- The Dodgers went 12-2 in Greinke's 14 starts at Chavez Ravine this season, while the 'under' is 6-1-1 his last eight home outings.
-- Since the start of 2011, Greinke's teams (Brewers and Dodgers) are 6-3 against the Cardinals, including a 4-0 home record.

Boston at Detroit

Game 1 - Tigers 1, Red Sox 0
Game 2 - Red Sox 6, Tigers 5
Game 3 - Red Sox 1, Tigers 0
Game 4 - Today
Game 5 - Thursday, October 17
Game 6* - Saturday, October 19
Game 7* - Sunday, October 20

* - If Neccessary

Series recap:

The underdog has profited in this series by winning twice, including in Tuesday's 1-0 victory by Boston as +130 'dogs. The only favorite win came in Game 2, as the Red Sox had to rally from a 5-0 deficit to stun the Tigers, 6-5. The 'under' is 2-1 in this series, with obviously the only 'over' cashing in Game 2.

Game 4 Pitching Matchups

Boston - Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17 ERA)


-- The Red Sox are 6-5 in his 11 starts since coming over from the White Sox in a trade. Boston has won four of Peavy's last five starts away from Fenway Park, including the series-clincher in the ALDS at Tampa Bay.
-- In Peavy's lone start against the Tigers this season (as a member of the White Sox), the righty gave up four earned runs in seven innings as Chicago held off Detroit, 7-4 as a +135 home 'dog.
-- The 'under' is 6-4-1 in Peavy's 11 starts with Boston, while going 4-4 to the 'under' on the road.

Detroit - Doug Fister (14-9, 3.67 ERA)


-- The Tigers have won 10 of Fister's 16 home starts this season, including an 8-6 comeback triumph in Game 4 of the ALDS against Oakland.
-- Detroit owns a 5-1 record in Fister's six career playoff starts, while going 3-0 at Comerica Park.
-- Fister split a pair of starts against the Sox this season. The Tigers lost as a home favorite to Boston in late June as Fister was racked by allowing 11 hits and six earned runs in less than four innings of work. Fister rebounded with a win as a +130 road underdog at Fenway Park in early September by tossing seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 triumph.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

Tigers - Red Sox

Peavy is 1-0, 4.70 in his last five starts, with three of last four staying under the total. He allowed four runs in seven IP in 7-4 win over Detroit July 25, in his last start for the White Sox.

Fister is 2-0, 4.05 in his last three starts, with four of his last six staying under the total. He started against Boston twice this year; June 21 he gave up 11 hits, six runs in 3.1 IP in a 10-6, then he blanked Red Sox for seven innings in a 3-0 win Spetember 2.

Boston rallied from down 5-1 in 8th inning to even series with 6-5 walkoff win Sunday, and now lead series after 1-0 win Tuesday; nine of their last twelve games went over total. Red Sox are 5-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 6-4 in those games. Boston lost four of their last seven road games.

Detroit is 6-9 in its last 15 games; nine of their last twelve stayed under the total. Tigers won seven of their last eleven home games.

Dodgers - Cardinals

Kelly is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; Cardinals are 7-3 in his last 10 starts, with over 5-2-1 in his last eight. He is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts against LA.

Kershaw is 3-1, 1.13 in his last five starts, with three of last four going over the total. He is 0-2, 3.32 in three starts against LA this season.

Dodgers are 5-6 against St Louis this year, with eight of 11 games going under the total. LA is 4-4 in playoffs but 10-14 in last 24 games overall; all four games in this series stayed under the total-- they've scored seven runs in 40 innings in this series so far.

Cardinals won 14 of their last 18 games, but lost three of last five road games; they allowed seven runs in first four games of this series- five of their last six games stayed under total.

Armadillosports.com

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

ST LOUIS (103 - 68) at LA DODGERS (96 - 74) - 4:05 PM

JOE KELLY (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-5 (+0.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.9 Units)

JOE KELLY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KELLY is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.299.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GREINKE is 8-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.202.
His team's record is 8-5 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.8 units)


BOSTON (102 - 67) at DETROIT (97 - 73) - 8:05 PM

JAKE PEAVY (R) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)

Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 102-67 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 46-38 (+7.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BOSTON is 11-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday this season.
BOSTON is 90-59 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 72-52 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 67-45 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 97-73 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 4-8 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday this season.
DETROIT is 93-70 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 119-97 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-5 (-0.2 Units) against BOSTON this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)

JAKE PEAVY vs. DETROIT since 1997
PEAVY is 4-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.205.
His team's record is 4-8 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-7. (-5.0 units)

DOUG FISTER vs. BOSTON since 1997
FISTER is 2-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.36 and a WHIP of 1.569.
His team's record is 4-4 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.4 units)

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ST. LOUIS vs. LA DODGERS
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis


BOSTON vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Boston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Boston


St Louis at LA Dodgers
Kelly: ST Louis 18-6 SU with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games
Greinke: LA Dodgers SU revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite

Boston at Detroit
Peavy: Boston 11-2 SU in road games when playing on Wednesday
Fister: Detroit 4-8 SU in home games when playing on Wednesday

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 16

StatFox Super Situations

MLB BOSTON at DETROIT
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season, after scoring 1 run or less 113-69 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.1% 45.2 units ) 25-20 this year. ( 55.6% 4.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 39-16 (+18.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.4) , OPPONENT (2.8)

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