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MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, October 15

MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, October 15

Red Sox at Tigers: What Bettors Need to Know

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

Series is tied 1-1.

David Ortiz added to his playoff lore in Game 2 with the big blow of a memorable comeback and the Boston Red Sox seek to take a 2-1 lead in the American League Championship Series when the scene moves to Detroit for Game 3 on Tuesday. Boston recovered from a five-run deficit with Ortiz hitting a game-tying grand slam in the eighth and Jarrod Saltalamacchia driving in the winning run an inning later. The Tigers attempt to recover behind red-hot Justin Verlander.

Verlander hasn’t allowed a run in 15 postseason innings this October and Boston hitters have struggled against Detroit starters in the series, totaling one run and two hits while striking out 25 times in 13 innings against Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer. The Tigers appeared headed to a 2-0 series lead prior to the bullpen meltdown that saw Ortiz belt the 15th postseason homer of his career, a blast off Joaquin Benoit that Detroit right fielder Torii Hunter was unable to grab and flipped over the low wall and into the Boston bullpen. “Postseason is something that can work both ways for you,” Ortiz said of his playoff success. “It can go well if you stay calm. Or it can go bad if you try to overdo things.”

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing in from CF at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46)

Lackey defeated Tampa Bay in the AL Division Series when he gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings. He went 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season and his career mark is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 outings. Lackey went 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA after the All-Star break, a huge drop from a 2.78 mark beforehand.

Verlander struck out 21 while allowing six hits and two walks against Oakland in the ALDS. He allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings in a no-decision against Boston on June 23 and his career record is 3-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts. Verlander was 6-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 regular-season home starts.


* Red Sox are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in Lackey's last five starts.
* Tigers are 2-10 in Verlander's last 12 starts.

UMP TRENDS - Ron Kulpa:

* Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander's last five road starts with Kulpa behind home plate.
* Under is 5-0 in Verlander's last five home with Kulpa behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-1 in Kulpa's last six games behind home plate.


1. Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera has two homers in his last three games after a power drought that began on Sept. 18 due to groin and abdominal injuries.

2. Ortiz is batting .370 with two homers in 27 career at-bats against Verlander.

3. Hunter injured his head, neck and shoulder with his tumble into the bullpen but said he will play in Game 3.

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ALCS Game 3 Notes

Detroit vs. Boston

Adjusted Series Price: Tigers (-120) Red Sox (+100)
Series Format: Boston (2-3-2)

Game 1 - Tigers, 1-0
Game 2 - Red Sox, 6-5
Game 3 - Tuesday, Oct. 15
Game 4 - Wednesday, Oct. 16
Game 5* - Thursday, Oct. 17
Game 6* - Saturday, Oct. 19
Game 7* - Sunday, Oct. 20


Detroit - 97-72
Boston - 101-67

Detroit - 52-31
Boston - 56-29

Detroit - 45-41
Boston - 45-38

Head-to-Head (9 Games)
Overall: Detroit 5-4
Fenway Park: Boston 3-2
Comerica Park: Detroit 3-1

Total Notes (Over/Under)

Detroit - 84-79-6
Boston - 78-83-7

Detroit - 45-32-5
Boston - 36-44-4

Detroit - 37-45-1
Boston - 40-38-3

Head-to-Head (9 Games)
Overall: Over - 5-4
Fenway Park: Under - 3-2
Comerica Park: Over - 3-1

Game 3 Starters

Boston - John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA)

-- Red Sox owned a 15-15 team record with Lackey on the mound this season (5-11 on road).
-- The 'under' finished at 22-7-1 in his 30 starts, while the 'under' went 12-4 on the highway.
-- Lackey lost twice to the Tigers this season, but pitched well in each defeat. The right-hander allowed five earned runs in 14 innings of work, while picking up a no-decision in a 4-3 defeat at Comerica Park in June.
-- Lackey won his only playoff start with the Sox, a 7-4 victory over the Rays in Game 2 of the ALDS. Lackey wasn't great, giving up four earned runs in less than six innings of work, but the Boston offense provided him plenty of early run support.

Detroit - Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46 ERA)

-- Tigers compiled a 14-20 record when Verlander started this season (7-10 at home).
-- The 'over' went 20-13-1 in his 34 starts, while the 'over' cashed 11 times in 16 home outings.
-- Verlander has pitched fantastic of late, not allowing a run in four consecutive starts, including a gem to clinch Game 5 of the ALDS against Oakland. The former Cy Young Award winner is making his first start at Comerica Park since an 8-0 loss to Seattle on September 18. The Tigers are just 2-10 in his last 12 outings, including an 1-5 mark at home.
-- In his only start against Boston this season, Verlander scattered seven hits and allowed four earned runs in five innings, but the Tigers picked up a 7-5 home victory as a -175 favorite.
-- Detroit is 6-3 in Verlander's last nine postseason starts since 2011, including a 4-0 mark at Comerica Park.

Postseason History

-- This is the first-ever meeting in the playoffs between these teams
-- Last ALCS appearance for Boston came in 2008, losing in seven games to Tampa Bay
-- Last ALCS appearance for Detroit came in 2012, beating New York in four games

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Tigers - Red Sox

Lackey is 3-1, 5.57 in his last five starts, four of which went over total; Boston scored 34 runs in the five games. He is 0-1, 3.14 in two starts against the Tigers this season- Red Sox scored three runs in those two games.

Verlander is 1-0, 0.00 in his last four starts, throwing 27 scoreless innings in a row; all four starts stayed under total, with Detroit scoring six runs in the four games (losing 1-0 twice). He allowed four runs in five IP in his only '13 start vs Boston, a game Detroit's bullpen later won 7-5.

Boston rallied from down 5-1 in 8th inning to even series with 6-5 walkoff win Sunday; nine of their last eleven games went over total. Red Sox are 4-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 6-3 in those games. Boston lost four of their last six road games.

Detroit won three of its last four games, allowing 12 runs, after losing seven of previous 10 games; eight of their last eleven stayed under the total. Tigers won seven of their last ten home games.

Dodgers - Cardinals

Lynn is 3-2, 2.79 in his last five starts and also threw two scoreless innings in relief in Friday's Game 1 win; over is 4-1-1 in his last six road starts. Lynn also blanked LA for six innings in a 7-0 win May 24.

Nolasco had rough end of September, going 0-2, 14.25 in his last three starts; he is 2-0, 3.00 in two starts (12 IP) against St Louis this season. Nolasco's last five starts all went over the total. This is his first start since September 29.

Dodgers are 5-5 against St Louis this year, with seven of ten games going under the total. LA is 4-3 in playoffs but 10-13 in last 23 games overall; all three games in this series stayed under the total-- they've scored five runs in 31 innings in this series so far.

Cardinals won 13 of their last 17 games, but lost three of last four road games; they allowed five runs in first three games of this series- four of their last five games stayed under total.

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BOSTON (101 - 67) at DETROIT (97 - 72) - 4:05 PM


There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-4 (+1.3 Units) against BOSTON this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. DETROIT since 1997
LACKEY is 6-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.322.
His team's record is 7-5 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-7. (-3.7 units)

VERLANDER is 3-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.197.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.5 units)

ST LOUIS (102 - 67) at LA DODGERS (95 - 73) - 8:05 PM


There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

LANCE LYNN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LYNN is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

NOLASCO is 3-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.99 and a WHIP of 1.466.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-3. (+3.7 units)

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Boston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Boston's last 18 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
LA Dodgers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis

St Louis at LA Dodgers
Lynn: Cardinals 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
Cardinals 2-8 in Lynns last 10 road starts
Nolasco: Dodgers 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games
Dodgers 10-3 L13 w/Nolasco

Boston at Detroit
Lackey: BOSTON is 28-40 SU after a win by 2 runs or less
Verlander: 36-10 TSR at home when the total is 7.5 or less

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StatFox Super Situations

Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (DETROIT) after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs, playing on Tuesday 74-60 over the last 5 seasons. ( 55.2% 38.5 units ) 9-12 this year. ( 42.9% -1.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

ST LOUIS is 81-43 (+24.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was: ST LOUIS (5.1) , OPPONENT (3.6)

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Cardinals at Dodgers: What Bettors Need to Know

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 7)

St. Louis leads series 2-1.

Big-name pitchers were the dominant theme entering the National League Championship Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers, but rookies continue to steal the show. Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu outdueled Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright in Game 3 on Monday night and host Los Angeles can even the best-of-seven series at two games apiece in Tuesday's Game 4. Scoring has been at a premium with the teams combining for nine runs through the first three games.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said after Game 3 that Ricky Nolasco will start Tuesday "as of right now," but he voiced a similar sentiment in the NL Division Series before switching to ace Clayton Kershaw. Lance Lynn will go for St. Louis, which has managed only one run and six hits in the past two games. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez provided an emotional lift for Los Angeles, returning to the lineup and collecting a pair of hits despite a hairline rib fracture that kept him out of Game 2.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 70s with winds blowing east at 3 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Ricky Nolasco (13-11, 3.70)

Lynn had a rocky outing in Game 2 of the NLDS against Pittsburgh, giving up five runs in 4 1/3 innings, and was bypassed for a possible Game 1 start versus the Dodgers. He still managed to contribute in a big way, pitching two scoreless innings in relief and picking up the win in St. Louis' 3-2 victory. He won in Los Angeles on May 24, striking out nine and allowing two hits in six scoreless innings, to improve to 2-0 in three starts against the Dodgers.

Nolasco was scheduled to pitch Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta before manager Mattingly opted to bring back Kershaw on three days' rest. Nolasco did little to inspire confidence in his last three starts of the regular season, getting battered for a staggering 19 runs and 24 hits in only 12 innings. He earned a victory in St. Louis on Aug. 7, giving up three runs (all unearned) and seven hits in five innings, and is 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals.


* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-8 in Lynns last 10 road starts.
* Dodgers are 10-3 in Nolascos last 13 starts.
* Over is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 playoff games.


1. Dodgers rookie RF Yasiel Puig ended an 0-for-11 skid with an RBI triple and Adrian Gonzalez halted a 1-for-17 slump with an RBI double in Game 3.

2. Cardinals 3B David Freese, the 2011 World Series MVP, left Monday's game with calf tightness and his status is uncertain for Tuesday.

3. Los Angeles is attempting to become the first team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in the NLCS since St. Louis accomplished it against the Dodgers in 1985.

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