MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, October 14

MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, October 14

Cardinals at Dodgers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (+112, 6.5)

The Cardinals lead the series 2-0.

The St. Louis Cardinals withstood a Cy Young Award-winning 1-2 punch and can take a commanding lead when the National League Championship Series shifts to Los Angeles for Monday's Game 3 against the Dodgers. The Cardinals held serve at home behind young right-handers Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha and now have ace Adam Wainwright lined up for the first of three straight games - if necessary - in LA. Wainwright tied for the NL lead in wins and owns a 4-0 career postseason mark.

The Dodgers received a pair of gems from their top two pitchers, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, yet came away empty when they scored only two runs in Games 1 and 2. "With those two starts, you feel like you should walk out of there with no worse than a split," Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis said. Los Angeles will send rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu out against Wainwright while hoping for good news on the medical front for shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who sat out Game 2 due to bruised ribs.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from LF to RF at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00)

Ryu became the first Korean-born player to start a postseason game, but it was not a memorable outing when he lasted only three innings and allowed four runs on six hits against Atlanta in the NLDS. Ryu lost three of four starts in September, although he allowed a total of eight runs and received only five runs of support. He was outstanding in beating the Cardinals on Aug. 8. permitting one run on five hits and striking out seven in seven innings.

Wainwright continued to cement his legacy as the ultimate big-game pitcher by beating Pittsburgh twice in the NLDS, including a complete-game effort in a winner-take-all Game 5. He allowed one run on three hits over seven innings in the series opener versus Pittsburgh and is 6-0 over his last seven starts. Wainwright gave up three runs and seven hits at home to a loss to the Dodgers on Aug. 5 to fall to 4-4 with a 3.10 record in 13 appearances (10 starts) against them.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in Wainwright's last five road starts vs. Dodgers.
* Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 Monday games.
* Dodgers are 5-0 in Ryus last five starts vs. National League Central.
* Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a win.

UMP TRENDS - Mike Everitt

* Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games with Everitt behind home plate.
* Home team is 6-1 in Everitts last seven games behind home plate.
* Home team is 21-5 in Everitts last 26 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS:

1, The last team to rebound from an 0-2 deficit in the NLCS was the 1985 Cardinals, who accomplished it against ... the Dodgers.

2. Los Angeles is scoreless in the last 19 innings and needs the bat of Ramirez, who batted .500 with one homer and six RBIs and an NLDS record-tying six extra-base hits versus Atlanta.

3. St. Louis has a team batting average of .134 in the NLCS, the lowest in major-league history for any team that won the first two games of a postseason series.

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NLDS - Game 3
VegasInsider.com

Los Angeles vs. St. Louis (Cardinals lead 2-0)

Opening Series Price: Dodgers (-140) Cardinals (+120)
Current Series Price: Cardinals (-370) Dodgers (+300)

Game 1 – Cardinals 3 Dodgers 2 (13 innings)
Game 2 – Cardinals 1 Dodgers 0

Game 3 Line
Money Line: Cardinals -125 Dodgers +115
Run-Line: Cardinals -1 ½ +140 Dodgers -1 ½ -160
Total: 6 ½ Under (-120)

Betting Notes

-- The Cardinals have won four straight games, including both matchups in this series.

-- St. Louis was listed as a home underdog in each of the first two games but is now a road favorite in Game 3.

-- Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have only lost three or more games on two occasions, both coming in September.

-- Los Angeles went 2-0 at home against Atlanta in the NLDS. The ‘over’ went 2-0.

-- St. Louis went 1-1 on the road against Pittsburgh in the NLDS. The ‘over/under’ went 1-1 as the Cardinals combined for five runs in the two games.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the first two games.

-- The Dodgers have not scored in 19 straight innings.

-- Dodgers batters were 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position Saturday, dropping to 1 for 16 (.063) RISP in the series. Yasiel Puig has struggled in two games, going 0 for 10 with six strikeouts and he’s stranded eight runners.

-- Hanley Ramirez (ribs) was a late scratch for the Dodgers in Game 2. He’s expected to underdo further tests on Sunday and hopes to play in Game 3 on Monday.

Game 3 Starters

St. Louis - Adam Wainwright (21-9, 2.83 ERA)


-- Wainwright started two games in the NLDS against the Pirates and earned two dominating victories, both at Busch Stadium. In the series, Wainwright went 16 innings, allowing 11 hits and two earned runs while striking out 15 batters. Including these wins, Wainwright now has four postseason victories on his resume.

-- Wainwright only faced the Dodgers once this season and he lost a 3-2 decision at home on Aug. 5. He allowed seven hits and three earned runs over seven innings in the losing effort. In his career, Wainwright is 4-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 13 appearances against Los Angeles, 10 of them starts.

-- Including the postseason, the Cardinals are 25-11 with Wainwright on the hill this season. The club has won all of his last five starts.

-- On the road, St. Louis has gone 12-5 with Wainwright but he’s only pitched outside of Busch Stadium twice in the last two months.

-- Wainwright has seen the ‘over’ cash in his last three starts. The Cardinals offense has scored 21 runs during this span. The ‘over’ has gone 10-6-1 in his 17 road starts.

Los Angeles – Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00 ERA)

-- Ryu started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Braves and was roughed up for four runs on six hits in just three innings. He earned the no decision in his first career playoff appearance as Los Angeles captured a 13-6 over Atlanta.

-- Against St. Louis this season, Ryu went 1-0 in his only start on Aug. 8. The lefthander gave up five hits in seven innings as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 5-1 on the road.

-- Los Angeles has gone 21-11 overall with Ryu starting this season, which includes a 12-5 record at home.

-- The Dodgers are 1-3 in Ryu’s last four home starts and most of the blame can be directed to the offense, which managed a total of four runs in the three losses and nine in the lone win.

-- The Cardinals have gone 19-23 against lefthanders this season.

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ST LOUIS (102 - 67) at LA DODGERS (95 - 73) - 8:05 PM

ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L)

Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 21-24 (-10.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 18-25 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
ST LOUIS is 74-96 (-35.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 95-73 (+4.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 69-45 (+14.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
RYU is 16-7 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 102-67 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 26-13 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 102-67 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 4-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.162.
His team's record is 6-5 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-7. (-3.6 units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
RYU is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)


ST. LOUIS vs. LA DODGERS
St. Louis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing St. Louis


St Louis at LA Dodgers
Wainwright: ST LOUIS is 8-17 SU after 4 or more consecutive wins
Ryu: LA DODGERS are 31-16 SU after allowing 1 run or less

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after getting shut out 145-83 since 1997. ( 63.6% 54.6 units ) 8-7 this year. ( 53.3% 0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 38-15 (+18.8 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.4) , OPPONENT (2.8)

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Dodgers - Cardinals

Wainwright is 5-0, 1.59 in his last six starts, with last three going over total-- Cardinals scored 21 runs in his last three starts. He lost 3-2 to LA August 5, allowing three runs in seven IP.

Ryu is 2-5, 3.86 in his last eight starts, with four of last five staying under the total; he allowed one unearned run in seven IP in a 5-1 win over the Cardinals August 8.

Dodgers are 4-5 against St Louis this year, with six of nine games staying under the total. LA is 3-3 in playoffs but 8-13 in last 21 games overall; four of their last six games went over the total, but they've scored two runs in 22 innings in this series so far. Ramirez/Kemp are hurt, Ethier is banged-up.

Cardinals won 13 of their last 16 games; they allowed two runs in first couple games of this series. St Louis won 11 of its last 12 home games- three of their last four games overall stayed under the total. St Louis is 20-24 vs lefties and the game they won vs Kershaw Saturday was 1-0.

Armadillosports.com

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NLCS Game 3 Odds and Pick – Desperate Dodgers face Adam Wainwright
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- The last time the Dodgers were down 2-0 in a series was the 2008 NLCS to the Phillies. They came back to win Game 3, but fell in the next two to lose the series.

The last time they were down 2-0 to the Cardinals in a series was in the 2004 NLDS. They came back to win Game 3, only to lose Game 4.

The last time the Dodgers actually won a series after being down 2-0 was in 1981, when they ended up winning the final four games against the Yankees to claim the World Series.

None of that history really means anything tonight, as the Dodgers try to avoid going down 3-0 to the Cardinals in the NLCS, unless you’re reaching for a reason to sway your decision towards the Dodgers at the bet window. In an improbable turn of events, the Cardinals have taken the Dodgers main strength, the 1-2 combination of Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and treated them like just another pair of pitchers.

And now for Game 3 (8 p.m. ET, TBS), St. Louis sends ace Adam Wainwright to the mound with a chance at tightening the screws for another World Series berth. If you want to side with the underdog Dodgers, the big question becomes, “Where are they going to get runs from?”

Game 3 starters: Adam Wainwright (21-9, 2.83 ERA) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-8, 3.14 ERA)

Game 3 odds: Cardinals -125, Total: 6.5 (under -115_

Season series record: Cardinals lead 5-4 (including NLCS)

Series price: Cardinals -370, Dodgers +310 (LAD opened -140)

The Dodgers been struggling to score against ordinary pitchers. Now they get Wainwright, who is in a groove right now, having won six of his past seven starts with the Cardinals winning all seven of those games. In two starts against the Pirates in the NLDS, he allowed only two runs combined in 16 innings of work.

True, the Dodgers did beat him in Los Angeles, 3-2, on August 5, but that Dodgers lineup was seeing softballs with everything clicking at the time. They were winning almost every game and mashing the ball in the process. This version of the Dodgers lineup looks more like the one from May that was in last place and couldn’t get out of their own way.

In the first two games of the series, the Dodgers batted only .184 and were 1-for-16 (0.63) with runners in scoring position. Hanley Ramirez, their most consistent slugger, missed Game 2 after being hit by a pitch in the ribs during Game 1 by Joe Kelly, but is expected to play tonight. He should help, but he’s still not 100 percent. Andre Ethier has been a non-factor, and Yasiel Puig can’t put wood on the ball. Puig is 0-for-10 in the series with six strikeouts.

On the other side, the Cardinals have scored only four runs in the series, but they came against two of the best pitchers in the game. In all facets of the game, the Cardinals have outplayed the Dodgers by a greater margin than the combined score of 4-2 would indicate. On a scorecard that shows for manager, bench, bullpen, hitting, defense, base-running and intangibles, the Cardinals get a check next to their side on all fronts.

Then, just as some of the Dodgers faithful start to believe that there is a chance to come back from an 0-2 deficit, the team announces that Ricky Nolasco will start Game 4, the same pitcher Don Mattingly tossed aside in the NLDS for a less rested Kershaw because the situation dictated it. Is the NLCS less important than the NLDS? Greinke can’t go on three days’ rest with the season on the line?

2-0 is hard to come back from, but we’ve seen teams do it before, including the 1985 Cardinals in the NLCS against the Dodgers, but with the pieces on the chess board right now, the Cardinals have their king, queen, both rooks, a knight and a bishop against the Dodgers’ two pawns and a king.

One of those pawns, Hyun-Jin Ryu, takes the mound tonight, and his recent performances don’t inspire much confidence. He got shelled for four runs in three innings against the Braves in the NLDS, a game the Dodgers eventually won, 13-6. The Dodgers had lost five of his last starts of the regular season, but overall, he has been a very consistent pitcher, and especially at home where he sports a 2.32 ERA. In his one start against the Cardinals this season, at Busch Stadium on Aug. 8, he didn’t allow an earned run in seven innings, and grabbed a 5-1 win.

Ryu’s problem at the end of the regular season was a lack of run support. In his final four starts, the Dodgers scored only five runs combined as the team went through the motions during September with a lackluster 12-15 record.

We’re not sure how much fight the Dodgers have left in them, while we’re pretty sure Wainwright will have a good game. However, it’s the combination of Ryu being good at home, the Dodgers not hitting, and Wainwright being in great form that makes the UNDER look like the way to go here.

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