MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Tigers at Red Sox: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-138, 7.5)

The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers have storied histories but will be facing each other for the first time in the postseason on Saturday when Game 1 of the American League Championship Series revs up at Fenway Park. Boston is looking to reach the World Series for the first time since 2007 while Detroit is seeking to return for the second consecutive year and third time in eight seasons. The Tigers won the season series 4-3.

The two teams were the highest-scoring squads in the majors – Boston recorded 853 runs, 57 more than Detroit – so the balance of potent bats and strong pitching arms will be intriguing. The health of Miguel Cabrera (groin) continues to be an issue but the Tigers' standout belted a two-run shot – his first homer since Sept. 18 – in the division series finale against Oakland and is 10-for-19 against Red Sox starter Jon Lester. Boston is certainly more rested after clinching its series against Tampa Bay on Tuesday while Detroit wrapped up its set versus Oakland on Thursday night and then traveled across the country.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s and wind will blow in from right field at 10 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (15-8, 2.57 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75)

Sanchez led the AL in ERA and allowed only nine regular-season homers but was shaky in his ALDS start against Oakland. He gave up six runs (five earned) and eight hits – including three homers – in 4 1/3 innings. Sanchez's lone career outing against Boston was for the Marlins in 2006 when he yielded seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings in his second career start.

Lester went 3-0 in five September starts and the strong finish carried over to a victory against Tampa Bay in which he allowed two runs and three hits in 7 2/3 innings. He went 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA versus the Tigers this season – including a victory on Sept. 3 in which he allowed one run and struck out nine in seven innings – to improve to 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA in seven career outings. Lester gave up just one homer over his last 10 regular-season starts before permitting two solo shots in the start against the Rays.

TRENDS:

* Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
* Tigers are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Boston.
* Tigers are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Red Sox are 12-2 in Lesters last 14 home starts.

WALK-OFFS:


1. The final meeting of the regular-season series resulted in Boston posting a 20-4 victory over the Tigers on Sept. 4.

2. Detroit CF Austin Jackson had a miserable ALDS against Oakland, going 2-for-20 with 13 strikeouts.

3. Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury went 9-for-18 with seven runs scored and four stolen bases in the ALDS while playing through a foot injury.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

ALCS Betting Notes
VegasInsider.com

Detroit vs. Boston

Series Price: Red Sox (-130) Tigers (+110)
Series Format: Boston (2-3-2)

Game 1 - Saturday, Oct. 12
Game 2 - Sunday, Oct. 13
Game 3 - Tuesday, Oct. 15
Game 4 - Wednesday, Oct. 16
Game 5* - Thursday, Oct. 17
Game 6* - Saturday, Oct. 19
Game 7* - Sunday, Oct. 20

Records

Overall
Detroit - 96-71
Boston - 100-66

Home
Detroit - 52-31
Boston - 55-28

Away
Detroit - 44-40
Boston - 45-38

Head-to-Head (7 Games)
Overall: Detroit 4-3
Fenway Park: Boston 2-1
Comerica Park: Detroit 3-1

Total Notes (Over/Under)

Overall
Detroit - 83-78-6
Boston - 77-82-7

Home
Detroit - 45-32-5
Boston - 35-43-4

Away
Detroit - 36-44-1
Boston - 40-38-3

Head-to-Head (7 Games)
Overall: Over - 4-3
Fenway Park: Under - 2-1
Comerica Park: Over - 3-1

Game 1 Starters

Detroit - Anibal Sanchez (14-8, 2.57 ERA)


-- Tigers owned a 17-13 team record with Sanchez on the mound this season (7-8 on road).
-- The 'over' finished at 16-11-3 in his 30 starts, while the 'over' went 7-7 on the highway.
-- Sanchez didn't face the Red Sox this season, as his only appearance against Boston came in relief as a member of the Marlins in 2006. The right-hander allowed seven earned runs, including two homers to David Ortiz, who is the only active player remaining from that lineup.
-- The Tigers are 2-2 in Sanchez's four career playoff starts, including a home loss in Game 3 of the ALDS to Oakland. Sanchez is listed as a road underdog on Saturday for the first time this season, as he won in this role in the ALCS in 2012 against the Yankees.

Boston - Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75 ERA)

-- Red Sox compiled 20-14 record when Lester started this season (12-2 at home).
-- The 'over' went 17-15-2 in his 34 starts, while the 'over' cashed seven times in 14 home outings.
-- Lester beat the Tigers twice this season, including as a short home favorite in early September. The southpaw scattered eight hits and allowed one earned un in seven innings of a 2-1 victory.
-- The Red Sox are 4-5 in Lester's nine career playoff starts, which includes a victory in Game 1 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay.

Postseason History

-- This is the first-ever meeting in the playoffs between these teams
-- Last ALCS appearance for Boston came in 2008, losing in seven games to Tampa Bay
-- Last ALCS appearance for Detroit came in 2012, beating New York in four games

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Dodgers at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (+128)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have their pitching rotation lined up perfectly for the National League Championship Series and will be banking on ace Clayton Kershaw to come up big in Saturday's Game 2 against the host St. Louis Cardinals. Postseason sensation Carlos Beltran drove in all three runs, including an RBI single in the 13th inning, to lift the Cardinals in the series opener. Kershaw lost both starts against St. Louis this season, permitting six runs in 13 frames.

Cardinals rookie Michael Wacha can't match the credentials of Kershaw, but the 22-year-old is coming off perhaps the best back-to-back starts turned in by any pitcher in recent memory. Wacha has surrendered one hit in each of his last two outings and was dominant in a season-saving elimination game against Pittsburgh in the NL Division Series. Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe has a five-game postseason hitting streak and six RBIs in his last three contests.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78)

Kershaw was dominant in his first NLCS start, striking out 12 and giving up one run on three hits in seven innings against Atlanta. He came back on three days' rest despite throwing 124 pitches and allowed only two hits on three runs over six frames. Kershaw led the NL with 232 strikeouts, a sparking 1.83 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, but he is 4-5 with a 3.75 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals.

Wacha carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning in Game 4 in Pittsburgh, only to see it broken up by Pedro Alvarez's solo home run. It was the only hit allowed by Wacha, who tied his season high with his second straight nine-strikeout performance. He did not allow a run in three of five September starts, including a no-hit bid against Washington that was thwarted by an infield single with two out in the ninth.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1-1 in Kershaw's last eight starts vs. Cardinals.
* Dodgers are 1-4 in Kershaw's last five road starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 8-1 in their last nine games following a win.
* Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last nine playoff games as an underdog.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Beltran has nine RBIs this postseason and 34 in 40 career playoff games.

2. Dodgers CF Andre Ethier returned to the lineup in Game 1, his first start since injuring his left ankle on Sept. 13.

3. Cardinals SS Pete Kozma is 4-for-5 with three doubles and three RBIs against Kershaw.

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LA DODGERS (95 - 71) at ST LOUIS (100 - 67) - 4:05 PM

CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. MICHAEL WACHA (R)

Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 100-67 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 78-61 (+22.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 56-28 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ST LOUIS is 35-20 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 100-67 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 387-266 (+55.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 214-135 (+56.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 95-71 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 23-11 (+10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 46-37 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LA DODGERS are 35-18 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 69-43 (+17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 22-11 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
KERSHAW is 23-5 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 20-24 (-11.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
KERSHAW is 4-5 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 6-7 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-0.7 units)

MICHAEL WACHA vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.


DETROIT (96 - 71) at BOSTON (100 - 66) - 8:05 PM


ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against BOSTON this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

JON LESTER vs. DETROIT since 1997
LESTER is 2-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.545.
His team's record is 3-4 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.5 units)

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LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games

DETROIT vs. BOSTON
Detroit is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 16 games when playing Detroit


LA Dodgers at St. Louis
LA Dodgers: 22-10 SU revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite
St Louis: 38-43 SU after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

Detroit at Boston
Detroit: 2-10 SU in road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less
Boston: 34-18 SU after 3 straight games where they committed no errors

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Dodgers-Cardinals

Kershaw is 3-0, 1.04 in his last four starts, with 36 strikeouts in 26 IP; his last three starts went over total- he is 0-2, 4.15 against the Cardinals this season.

Wacha's last two starts: 16 IP, two hits, one run, four walks, 16 K's. He took a no-hitter into 7th inning in both games. He's only started nine games and hasn't pitched against the Dodgers.

Dodgers are 4-4 against St Louis this year, with road team winning five of the eight games, and five of eight staying under the total. LA is 3-2 in playoffs but 8-12 in last 20 games overall; four of their last five games went over the total.

Cardinals won 12 of their last 15 games; four of their last six games went over the total. Teams played 13 innings late into night Friday. St Louis won ten of its last eleven home games.

Tigers-Red Sox

Sanchez is 0-2, 5.23 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. He hasn't pitched against Boston in the last four seasons.

Lester is 4-0, 2.53 in his last six starts, with last three going over total; Boston scored 28 runs in his last four starts. He is 2-0, 4.26 in two starts vs Detroit this season.

Detroit won last two games, scoring 11 runs, after losing seven of previous 10 games; eight of their last ten games stayed under the total. Tigers are 27-23 vs lefthanded starters this season.

Boston scored 26 runs in its 3-1 series win over Tampa Bay; eight of their last nine games went over the total. Red Sox are 3-4 vs Detroit, with the home team 5-2 in those games. Boston won 20-4 last time teams played, September 4.

Armadillosports.com

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB DETROIT at BOSTON
Play Against - Road teams (DETROIT) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start 329-198 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.4% 93.7 units ) 78-58 this year. ( 57.4% 8.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB LA DODGERS at ST LOUIS
LA DODGERS are 33-13 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.3) , OPPONENT (3.1)

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Dodgers-Cardinals Game 2 Odds and Pick - L.A. sends ace to mound to even series
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

After taking Game 1 in 13 innings Friday night, the Cardinals put themselves in the driver's seat for the series because the Dodgers big edge in the pitching rotation has quickly gone away. The Dodgers opened as -140 favorites, but after outlasting a good performance by Zack Greinke and taking a 1-0 lead, the Cardinals are now the -150 favorite.

Things can turn in a moment, and that's what seemed to happen in Game 1 where several Don Mattingly strategies failed. Now the Dodgers find themselves in a desperate situation because they have to have Game 2. Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright goes in Game 3, and there is a strong possibility it could be 3-0 before Los Angeles knows what hit them.

We don't think that will be the case, as Clayton Kershaw has been outstanding lately. Over his past four starts, Kershaw has given up only one run. His two playoff starts - both Dodgers wins - against the Braves saved the series, and he's going to have to do the same here.

The big question for the game is how Kershaw will respond against a Cardinals team that had his number in two starts this season, where he took the losses in both. His 4.15 ERA against St. Louis is his highest against any team this season. Is it just pure chance that the Cards caught Kershaw on an off-night twice, or is it simply that the NL's best hitting team has Kershaw figured out?

Popping Kershaw the way they have is kind of surprising considering the Cardinals were only 19-23 against left-handers this season and also lost to Francisco Liriano in the NLDS.

If Kershaw is going to get the win tonight, he is going to have to be very sharp because it's apparent that Michael Wacha is in the zone. He's gone deep into games with one-hitters in his last two outings, and in five of his 10 starts (including playoffs), he's allowed three hits or fewer.

Look for a very low scoring game tonight with Kershaw taking charge and getting the win. We consider the way Kershaw is pitching right now far more relevant than the Cardinals beating him twice already.

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Tigers-Red Sox Game 1 Odds and Pick - Boston, Detroit look to grab upper hand in ALCS
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

The shape of this series took a dynamic twist before it even began, as Justin Verlander shredded the A's in Game 5 of the ALDS. Everyone had seen Verlander getting better, but the Tigers weren't hitting behind him, and his value to the team appeared to be like a No. 3 or 4 pitcher rather than the ace he used to be.

Scratch that thought. Verlander coming up big in the postseason when they most needed him shows that not only has an ace re-emerged for Detroit, but also quite possibly might be back to being the best in the game. This changes everything.

The Tigers could be in a situation much like St. Louis is where their ace will be starting a momentum-swinging Game 3. The Red Sox are a short -130 favorite to win at the LVH Super Book, a number they say is only so high because they don't want any Boston money.

"Our baseball guy said the series should be Boston -120," LVH's Jeff Sherman said, "but because of our position in baseball futures, where we do much better with Detroit than Boston, we made sure our number is at least one of the highest."

The price on the Red Sox to win the series is as low as -120 at the Stratosphere, with William Hill offering -125. Before Verlander made a scene, we might have seen Boston favored by a little more with their home field advantage.

Jon Lester is a -140 favorite tonight in Game 1 at Fenway Park against Anibal Sanchez, who led the AL in ERA. Sanchez didn't face the Red Sox this season, but he comes off a soul-searching start in Game 3 of the ALDS against the A's where they took him deep three times. Sanchez gave up all six runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-3 loss.

The Tigers haven't won his past three starts, and in a Sept. 22 home game against the White Sox, he allowed four runs in five innings of a 6-3 loss. We don't think Sanchez is in his best form of the season, and the Red Sox look to have a bigger edge in Game 1 just because their bats aren't missing much lately.

We should see plenty of OVERs in this series because of the Tigers and Red Sox being 1-2, in no particular order, in MLB runs scored and batting average. Even though Detroit hit only .235 in the ALDS, there were some signs of them coming out of a September slump, especially with Jhonny Peralta emerging as the clutch performer.

We like the Red Sox tonight and OVER 7.5 runs, as well as the Red Sox to win the series in seven games.

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