MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 11

MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 11

Dodgers at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (+104, 7)

Two of baseball's storied franchises square off when the St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers surged into contention with a ridiculous 42-8 stretch and haven't let up, bludgeoning the Atlanta Braves into submission in four games in the NL Division Series. Los Angeles also has a steller rotation led by likely Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and Game 1 starter Zack Greinke.

St. Louis advanced to its third straight NLCS - and eighth since 2000 - by outlasting Pittsburgh in five games behind ace Adam Wainwright, who will be unavailable until Game 3 in Los Angeles. The Cardinals can't match the muscle of the Dodgers but they have a deep and balanced lineup that led the NL in runs and doubles. Joe Kelly will start the opener for St. Louis, which won the final two games of the NLDS to improve to 8-1 in playoff elimination games since 2011.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing south at 8 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP:
Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (0-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. RH Joe Kelly (0-0, 3.38)

Greinke went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA in the regular season but lost the Dodgers' only game in the NLDS despite allowing two runs on four hits in six innings. He was 7-2 on the road but his ERA (3.21) was more than a run worst and batting average against (.263 against .207) was substantially higher than at Dodger Stadium. Greinke won at St. Louis on Aug. 5, allowing two runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Kelly did not factor in the decision after giving up three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a Game 3 loss in Pittsburgh. Kelly went 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA during the regular season, including 10-2 as a starter after he was inserted into the rotation in early July. The 25-year-old Kelly was outstanding at home with a 5-1 record in eight starts, including 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers on Aug. 6.

TRENDS:


* Dodgers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in St. Louis.
* Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 home games.
* Dodgers are 35-16 in their last 51 road games.
* Over is 6-1 in Cardinals' last seven playoff games.

WALK-OFFS:


1. Los Angeles went 4-3 against the Cardinals during the regular season, winning three of four in St. Louis in early August.

2. SS Hanley Ramirez batted .500 and RF Yasiel Puig .471 while Carl Crawford and Juan Uribe combined to hit five homers as the Dodgers set an NL postseason series record with .333 team batting average versus Atlanta.

3. RF Carlos Beltran has been immense in the postseason with career totals of 16 homers and 31 RBIs in 39 games, but the Cardinals need more from 2B Matt Carpenter, who was 1-for-19 in the NLDS after collecting a league-high 199 hits in the regular season.

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LA DODGERS (95 - 71) at ST LOUIS (100 - 67) - 8:35 PM

ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)

Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 100-67 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 78-61 (+22.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 56-28 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ST LOUIS is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off this season.
ST LOUIS is 100-67 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 80-43 (+23.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 387-266 (+55.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 214-135 (+56.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 95-71 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 23-11 (+10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 46-37 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LA DODGERS are 69-43 (+17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 49-37 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 22-11 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GREINKE is 22-7 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
GREINKE is 15-3 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
GREINKE is 22-7 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
GREINKE is 17-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 53-45 (-8.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GREINKE is 8-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.263.
His team's record is 8-4 (+4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-7. (-2.5 units)

LANCE LYNN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LYNN is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

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LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home


LA Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
LA Dodgers: 18-6 UNDER after a one run win
St Louis Cardinals: ST LOUIS is 11-0 SU in home games when playing with a day off

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Dodgers - Cardinals

Greinke is 7-2, 1.60 in his last 12 starts, with ten of last thirteen starts staying under the total; he beat St Louis here 3-2 on August 5, allowing two runs in his 6.1 IP. Dodgers scored a total of four runs in his last three starts.

Kelly is 7-2, 2.81 in his last ten starts, with over 5-1-1 in his last seven; he was 1-1, 3.24 in two starts against the Dodgers this season.

Dodgers are 4-3 against St Louis this year, with road team winning five of the seven games, and four of seven staying under the total. LA beat Atlanta in last series 3-1, with all four games going over total. Kemp is out, Ethier may play for Dodger squad that scored 26 runs against the Braves.

Cardinals won 11 of their last 14 games; four of their five games vs Pittsburgh went over the total.

Armadillosports.com

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB LA DODGERS at ST LOUIS
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ST LOUIS) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season 162-133 since 1997. ( 54.9% 60.3 units )27-29 this year. ( 48.2% 2.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB LA DODGERS at ST LOUIS
LA DODGERS are 33-13 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.3) , OPPONENT (3.1)

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 11

NLCS Betting Notes
VegasInsider.com

Los Angeles vs. St. Louis

Series Price: Dodgers (-140) Cardinals (+120)
Series Format: St. Louis (2-3-2)

Game 1 - Friday, Oct. 11
Game 2 - Saturday, Oct. 12
Game 3 - Monday, Oct. 14
Game 4 - Tuesday, Oct. 15
Game 5* - Wednesday, Oct. 16
Game 6* - Thursday, Oct. 18
Game 7* - Friday, Oct. 19

Records

Overall
Los Angeles - 95-71
St. Louis - 100-67

Home
Los Angeles - 49-34
St. Louis - 56-28

Away
Los Angeles - 46-37
St. Louis - 44-39

Head-to-Head (7 Games)
Overall: Los Angeles 4-3
Busch Stadium: Los Angeles 3-1
Dodger Stadium: St. Louis 2-1

Total Notes (Over/Under)

Overall
Los Angeles - 78-81-7
St. Louis - 83-76-8

Home
Los Angeles - 41-39-4
St. Louis - 37-42-5

Away
Los Angeles - 37-42-3
St. Louis - 46-34-3

Head-to-Head (7 Games)
Overall: Under - 4-3
Busch Stadium: Under - 3-1
Dodger Stadium: Over - 2-1

Game 1 Starters

Los Angeles - Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63 ERA)


-- Dodgers owned a 22-7 team record with Greinke on the mound this season.
-- The 'under' finished at 19-9-1 in his 28 starts, including a 10-5 'under' mark on the road.
-- Greinke beat the Cardinals as a +145 road underdog in early August, 3-2. The right-hander allowed eight hits and two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings, while driving in a key run with two outs in the seventh inning.
-- Greinke is 1-1 in three postseason starts (all with Brewers), while losing at Busch Stadium in the 2011 NLCS. Greinke allowed five runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 7-1 loss as a road favorite.

St. Louis - Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69 ERA)


-- Cardinals compiled an 11-5 record when Kelly started this season.
-- The 'over' went 9-6-1 in his 16 starts, while the 'over' barely profited at home (4-3-1).
-- Kelly defeated Clayton Kershaw as a a +130 home underdog in August, 5-1 by tossing 5 1/3 innings and allowing six hits and one earned run.
-- Kelly is making his second career playoff start after picking up a no-decision in a 5-3 defeat at Pittsburgh in Game 3 of the NLDS as a +150 underdog. The righty scattered three hits and two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work, but walked four batters.

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NLCS Odds and Picks – Dodgers substantial favorites over Cardinals
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- The Dodgers and Cardinals franchises have been hooking up against each other since 1884, with St. Louis holding a 1078-1047 edge. Yet this will only be third postseason meeting since divisional play in 1969 made it possible for the two National League competitors to fight for a World Series berth.

In the 2004 NLDS the Dodgers would rather forget, the Cardinals rolled, 3-1, on their way to facing a destined Red Sox club in the World Series. But in 1985, these two squared off in a series that is still widely remembered when fans discuss baseball strategy. The Dodgers jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first year the LCS used a best-of-seven format, but the Cardinals won the final four games, culminating with a Game 6 gaffe by Tommy Lasorda.

The Dodgers had just taken a 5-4 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning of that game, and rather than walk the Cardinals only power source, Jack Clark, with first base open and two runners on in the top of the ninth, Lasorda ordered Tom Niedenfuer to pitch to him, despite a young and struggling Andy Van Slyke on deck. Of course, Clark hit a three-run homer and the Cardinals advanced to the World Series.

That history has nothing to do with how this year’s series will play out, but so far, the playoff scoreboard reads 2-0 St. Louis. To a proud Dodgers organization, with Lasorda still holding a title for them, those losses still sting.

According to the Las Vegas sports books, the tables are expected to be turned this year, as the Dodgers are -135 favorite at the LVH to win the series that starts Friday night in St. Louis (8:07 p.m. ET, TBS), despite the Cardinals having home-field advantage. The major reason for such a large number is simply because of the rotation schedule – two of the best pitchers in baseball, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, start Games 1 and 2 for the Dodgers, while Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright won’t make a start until Game 3 at Los Angeles because he wrapped up of the NLDS against Pittsburgh in Game 5 on Wednesday.

Since Dodgers manager Don Mattingly started Kershaw in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Braves on three days’ rest, we could see Greinke start as many as three games in this series. Mattingly wasn’t excited about using a struggling Ricky Nolasco in the NLDS, and based on him not laying out his rotation past Game 2, something similar is likely to unfold here.

That means five possible games the Cardinals may have to face one of the best pitchers in baseball. A similar dynamic played out when the Dodgers used Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale to win three-of-four World Series appearances from 1959 to 1966. Pitching is the most important facet of the game and no one comes as strong as the Dodgers on back-to-back nights.

Because of the edge in pitching matchups, and the Cardinals’ rotation being off-balance – where their ace will likely face the Dodgers’ third-string of either Hyun-Jin Ryu or Nolasco – we like the Dodgers to win in six games, and we think it starts tonight with Greinke, who has the most potential to be series MVP.

Game 1 starters: Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63 ERA) vs. Joe Kelly (5-3, 2.38 ERA)

Game 1 odds: Dodgers -120, Total: 7 OV -115

Season series record: Dodgers 4-3

Series price: Dodgers -135

In addition to Greinke having the second best profit-margin return (+13.9) for bettors on the season – the Dodgers went 22-7 behind in him – the guy can also swing the bat. He hit .328 with 19 hits, making him a tough out at the bottom of the order.

We think the Cardinals were fortunate to get by the Pirates – better, but still fortunate. Pittsburgh was the perfect example of how great pitching can dominate great hitting in a series. The Bucs took the best hitting team in the NL (.269) to five games by holding them to a paltry .209 batting average. And without Allen Craig, the Cardinals don't resemble the offense from the regular season. Matt Adams has done a job better than expected, but Craig led the majors with a .454 average with runners in scoring position. That’s a big blow.

The game changer in the series could turn out to be Michael Wacha, who will start Game 2 on Saturday. The kid has taken no-hitters deep in his last two starts and didn’t seemed fazed by the moment when putting away Pittsburgh on the road. Two straight one-hitters? What will he do next? He would be the main reason to side with the Cardinals in the series.

That would mean Wacha takes down Kershaw in Game 2, which is a possibility based on two outings this year where the Cardinals beat the Dodgers ace. However, Wacha might need to throw another one-hitter to win because of the way Kershaw is pitching lately – he’s allowed only one earned run over his past four starts spanning 26 innings.

We like the Dodgers tonight and in the series. We’ll talk more about pivotal Game 2 tomorrow.

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