MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 10

MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 10

Tigers at Athletics: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (+109, 7)

The Detroit Tigers finally found their offensive form in Game 4 and used it to force a decisive Game 5 in the American League Division Series. The Tigers will head back on the road, where they managed a total of three runs in the first two games, and visit the Oakland Athletics for Game 5 on Thursday. Detroit still is not getting much from Miguel Cabrera but the supporting cast, led by Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta, is stepping up.

The Tigers had scored in only two innings in the first three games to fall behind 2-1 in the best-of-five series but overcame a pair of deficits in Tuesday’s 8-6 triumph. The Athletics finally showed some vulnerability in the bullpen, which had three relievers combine to allow five runs in the final two innings of Game 4. Detroit won a Game 5 in Oakland in last season’s ALDS behind a four-hit shutout from Justin Verlander, who is expected to get the nod on Thursday.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 60s with clear skies and winds blowing WSW at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Bartolo Colon (0-1, 4.50)

Verlander struck out 11 and allowed four hits in Saturday’s Game 2 but did not factor in the decision when Oakland ended up claiming a 1-0 victory. The former Cy Young Award winner has now made three ALDS starts against the Athletics in the last two seasons and yielded a total of one run and 11 hits while striking out 33 in 23 innings. Verlander threw at least 117 pitches in each one of those starts.

Colon allowed three runs in the first inning of Game 1 but shut the Tigers down for the next five. The burly veteran still absorbed the loss while scattering 10 hits. Colon had not surrendered more than two earned runs in any of his last six regular-season starts, including a five-inning stint at Detroit on Aug. 29.

TRENDS:

* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Oakland.
* Tigers are 6-2 in Verlanders last eight starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 10-4 in Verlanders last 14 starts vs. Athletics.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Cabrera is 4-for-16 with four singles and one RBI in the ALDS while fighting through abdominal and groin injuries.

2. Oakland CF Coco Crisp is 7-for-9 with four runs scored in the last two games.

3. Detroit RHP Max Scherzer came out of the bullpen in Game 4 and earned the win in relief. He should be available again in Game 5.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 10

DETROIT (95 - 71) at OAKLAND (98 - 68) - 9:05 PM

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. SONNY GRAY (R)

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 95-71 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 6-11 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
DETROIT is 18-31 (-18.8 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 43-40 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 10-18 (-14.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 51-99 (-37.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off since 1997.
DETROIT is 91-68 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 117-96 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 52-43 (-18.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
VERLANDER is 14-21 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
VERLANDER is 7-11 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
VERLANDER is 13-20 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
VERLANDER is 6-12 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
VERLANDER is 10-16 (-18.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 98-68 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 49-32 (+19.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 104-61 (+30.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 95-64 (+20.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 58-38 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 65-46 (+11.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 77-60 (+20.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 44-31 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 21-13 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 6-5 (+3.0 Units) against DETROIT this season
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.7 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 11-6 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.077.
His team's record is 11-8 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-12. (-5.8 units)

SONNY GRAY vs. DETROIT since 1997
GRAY is 0-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.750.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

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DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland   
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games at home
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home


Detroit at Oakland
Tigers: 1-10 in Verlander's last 11 starts
Tigers: 0-5 L5 away w/Verlander
Oakland: 13-3 following a loss
Oakland: 4-1 L5 home w/Gray

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 10

Tigers-A's

Verlander didn't allow a run (19 IP) in his last three starts, but didn't win any of the three; in his last three playoff starts vs Oakland, he allowed one run in 23 IP, winning two of three. He allowed six runs in 11 IP in two regular season starts against the A'as this season.

Rookie Gray is making 11th big league start; he is 3-0, 2.17 in last five starts, blanking Detroit on four hits over eight IP in Game 2 Saturday. He has a 1.66 ERA in 48.2 IP at home (3.86 on road).

Eight of Detroit's last ten games stayed under the total- -they scored eight runs Tuesday, after scoring total of six in first three series games. Eight of last ten Detroit games stayed under the total.

Oakland is 11-1 in game following their last 12 losses; they're 6-5 vs Tigers this year, with road team winning seven of 11 games. A's won 18 of last 25 games, 11 of their last 15 games went over the total. Oakland franchise is 1-11 in last 12 games that could win a series.

Armadillosports.com

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 10

StatFox Super Situations

MLB DETROIT at OAKLAND
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games 105-67 since 1997. ( 61.0% 44.2 units ) 8-13 this year. ( 38.1% -5.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB DETROIT at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 37-13 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: OAKLAND (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.3)

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Game 5 - Tigers at A's
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Tigers and Athletics have been to this party before, as Detroit closed out the lights at the O.Co Coliseum last October to advance to the American League Championship Series. Detroit eventually won the pennant before getting swept by San Francisco in the World Series, while Oakland is looking to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2006.

In Game 2 of this series, Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46 ERA) resembled his 2011 form when he captured both the American League Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player by tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 11 batters. However, Detroit's offense didn't help out Verlander as the Tigers failed to score a single run, while Stephen Vogt's walk-off single in the ninth inning gave Oakland a 1-0 triumph as short home underdogs.
   
Detroit owns a 14-20 record with Verlander on the mound this season, but the right-hander has been dealt some bad fortune recently. In his last three outings, the Tigers are 0-3, while Verlander hasn't allowed one run, including 33 strikeouts with all three defeats coming by one run each. How unlucky has Verlander been on the highway? Detroit has dropped five consecutive road contests with Verlander starting - all one-run results.

The Tigers' offense produced the second-most runs in the regular season (796), while scoring three runs in the first inning of Game 1. Since that point until the end of Game 3, Jim Leyland's club plated only three runs in the next 26 innings, while falling behind Oakland, 2-1. The Tigers dug themselves a 3-0 hole in Tuesday's Game 4 at Comerica Park, but Jhonny Peralta's three-run blast off Dan Straily revitalized this Detroit squad.

After Oakland grabbed a 4-3 edge heading into the bottom of the seventh, Victor Martinez tied the game up again with a controversial homer in which the replay showed a fan getting his hand on the ball before it cleared the right-field fence. The home run stood up and the Tigers would eventually take an 8-6 lead and even the series up at 2-2 heading back west.

The A's will turn to Game 2 starter Sonny Gray on Thursday night for the right to advance to the ALCS against Boston. Gray (5-3, 2.67 ERA) has pitched extremely well of late as Oakland is 6-0 in his last six starts. The right-hander impressed in his first postseason outing opposite Verlander by tossing eight scoreless innings and scattering four hits in a 1-0 victory.

The 'under' cashed in each of the first two games of this series at O.Co Coliseum, but the 'over' hit easily in the two contests played in Detroit. Since losing the first two games at Oakland in last season's ALDS, the Tigers have won four of the last six meetings in the Bay Area, including a 6-0 shutout by Verlander in the series finale.

Detroit opened up as $1.15 road favorite, as the number may increase by a few cents with Verlander on the mound. The total is set at 6 ½, mainly shaded to the 'over' at $1.15 (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00). The game will get started a few minutes after 8:00 PM EST and can be seen on TBS.

Red Sox up next:

It's never too early to look ahead to the ALCS, as Boston waits around for the series opener on Saturday at Fenway Park. The Sox put together a 3-4 record against the Tigers, but that included a 20-run outburst in their most recent meeting on September 4 in a 20-4 rout of Detroit. Meanwhile, Boston and Oakland split six matchups this season, with the home team winning two of three times in each series.

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Tigers-A’s Game 5 Odds and Pick – Verlander looks attractive at near even-money
By: The Linemakers   
Sportingnews.com

You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have Justin Verlander’s tumultuous 2013 season. From 2009-12, it was all good for Verlander, as he compiled a 78-31 record and took home Cy Young and MVP hardware in 2011. But something changed, and went bad, after he went 3-0 in three starts between the 2012 ALDS against the A’s and ALCS with the Yankees.

In Game 1 of the World Series against Barry Zito and the Giants, where Verlander was a -170 road favorite, Pablo Sandavol hit two of his three home runs in the game off of Verlander, who would last only four innings while giving up five runs in an eventual 8-3 Giants win. The Tigers were swept, and Verlander languished all winter for another chance at redemption.

That redemption hasn't really happened yet for Verlander. He started 34 games, which again tied him for the most in baseball, but he dropped from six complete games in 2012 to none this season. His ERA fell from 2.64 to 3.46. His strikeouts dropped and his walks rose, and his record fell to a journeyman-like 13-12. Including his one playoff start against the A’s in Game 2, the Tigers have gone 14-21 behind him this season, and because he was such a big favorite in so many games and started the most, his unit profit margin of -22.9 was the worst in baseball.

Worse yet, the Tigers have lost 10 of their last 11 games behind their prize-winning horse. The good news is that while the Tigers were going through the motions in September with a 13-13 record, and Miguel Cabrera was playing through a nagging injury, Verlander began to get stronger. In five August starts, his ERA was 4.11. In seven September starts, it dropped to 2.27.

His numbers get even closer to his epic 2011 season over his final three starts, as he hasn’t allowed a run in 19 innings of work. The best sign of all that Verlander (13-12, 3.36 ERA) may really be back is that he had double-digit strikeouts in all three starts. It had been since May 27 against Pittsburgh that Verlander had registered double-digit Ks.

Granted, the Tigers still lost all three of those starts, but whatever routine he’s going through lately is working, and it makes tonight’s pick ’em price of -105 for the ALDS-deciding Game 5 against rookie Sonny Gray (8:07 p.m. ET, TBS) look attractive.

Game 5 odds: Tigers -105, Total: 6.5 (over -110)

Season series record: A’s 6-5 (Including ALDS)

If you knew you were getting the old Verlander in a Game 5 situation almost identical to last season when he tossed a four-hit, complete-game shutout at Oakland in Game 5 to the ALDS and had to lay only -105, it would seem like a no-brainer.

The only problem here is that Gray (5-3, 2.38 ERA) went toe-to-toe with Verlander in Game 2, lasted longer, and matched every goose egg on the board in an eventual 1-0 A’s win. Gray hasn’t allowed a run over his past two starts, and unlike Verlander, the A’s have had his back, winning his past five starts.

The Tigers bats have looked lifeless for over a month, but there has to be a negative vibe of second guessing in an Oakland clubhouse in relation to missed opportunities. They probably should have closed this series out already, but couldn’t put Detroit away. Now the Tigers have their horse pitching his best of the season, with 13 career postseason starts in his back pocket, against a rookie that has pitched well, but still might have too much to shoulder for the team in this do-or-die situation.

We look for a low-scoring game with the Tigers coming out on top.

NLCS price set: The Dodgers have opened up as a -150 favorite to win the best-of-seven series against the Cardinals that begins Friday at Busch Stadium. Zack Greinke will start Game 1 against Joe Kelly, while Clayton Kershaw will go in Game 2 against an undecided pitcher for St. Louis. Adam Wainwright gets the Game 3 start in Los Angeles. We’ll have break down of the series on Friday.

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