NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Oakland at Kansas City
The surprising Kansas City Chiefs (5-0, 4-1 ATS) face their first division opponent when they host Oakland Raiders (2-3, 3-1-1 ATS) this Sunday. The betting market isn't giving Oakland much of a chance opening Raiders 10.5 point underdogs. That's despite Raiders nearly upsetting the 4-1 Colts in Indy and keeping Denver to it's lowest point total on the season. A cruise through our NFL Betting Database tells us this road dog has an excellent chance at staying within the number. Dogs of 10 to 14.5 points during pumpkin month are 12-7-1 ATS, Raiders are 4-1 ATS in October, Chiefs are on a 0-6 (1-5 ATS) skid vs the division. Besides, there is something that brings out the best of Oakland when facing Kansas City. The Raiders have won three straight meetings (3-0 ATS) and have walked off with the 'W' in 8-of-11 encounters (8-3 ATS) including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS at Arrowhead Stadium.
Detroit at Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns lead by QB Brian Hoyer have won and cashed three straight. But, losing Hoyer in their win over Bills the Browns must now go with oft-maligned QB Brandon Weeden when they host Detroit Lions. Backing Cleveland is a betting challenge to be sure with Weeden and his 69.2 passer rating guiding the troops. However, Browns do have a number of factors in their favor. It may not be all down hill for Weeden, Lions have struggled with pass defense giving up 268.2 PYG. Browns could pack the box to keep Bush limited forcing QB Matthew Stafford to work his magic without WR's Calvin Johnson (questionable), Nate Burleson which did not work well in Green Bay. Small road favorites 10-12 ATS this season, Detroit 3-12-1 ATS last sixteen away from MoTown you certainly move at your own risk with Lions.
Jacksonville at Denver
Denver Broncos are 5-0 through five games (3-1-1 ATS) racking up 46.0 points/game on 7.0 yards/play while giving up 27.8 points/game and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-5 SU/ATS managing a lowly 10.2 PPG on 4.4 yards/play surrendering a whopping 32.6 per contest. In a nut shell, one of the most lopsided affairs the NFL has seen in decades. If that were not enough, since last year, Broncos have an 18-3 regular season record (13-7-1 ATS) including a 10-1 stretch at home (7-3-1 ATS), Jaguars are 2-19 over the span (7-14 ATS) with a 1-10 mark on the road (5-6 ATS). According to odds at this writing, the offshore books have Peyton and his high-powered troops a staggering 26.5-point favorite. Little doubt Broncos' throttle Jags but cover the insane number ???. Before you jump all over Broncos, here's an interesting sports betting nugget to consider. This millennium, sixteen big betting favorites laying 17 or more points are a cash draining 5-10-1 against-the-spread. Have the big favorite dress up as an AFC squad they're 2-8 ATS, 0-4 ATS laying 20 or more points.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay at Baltimore
By Teddy Covers
Green Bay at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -3.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -3 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore pk
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under
We got two underrated defenses facing off against two offenses that are struggling in the red zone AND committed to running the football . Put those three factors together with the consistently high totals in the modern NFL era and the case for the Under is perfectly clear.
Let me start with the defenses. Green Bay got Morgan Burnett back in the lineup at safety last week after missing the first three games of the season and he definitely had an impact, saving a potential big play TD with a beautiful pass breakup. The Packers front seven really controlled the field against Detroit, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to do it again here even without Clay Matthews relentless pass rushing abilities.
The Ravens stop unit didn't allow a single TD in their two previous home games. On the road over the past two weeks, Baltimore was able to consistently force field goal attempts with red zone stops. Buffalo and Miami combined to score only two TD’s in seven red zone chances. For all the defensive leadership questions surrounding this team over the summer, here in the Fall, Baltimore’s stop unit is still worthy of respect.
In the Ravens loss at Buffalo two weeks ago, offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell took some heat for Baltimore’s lack of balance on offense. In their two previous games, Baltimore had 61 passes and 67 rushing attempts. Against the Bills, that ratio was 54 passes to nine rushes, and Joe Flacco threw five interceptions as a result. Last week, it was back to normal: 40 running plays and 34 passing plays. With a notable lack of downfield targets, Baltimore’s best chance for success in 2013 is by pounding Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce between the tackles. That being said, it’s surely worth noting that neither Rice or Pierce is averaging even three yards per carry this season!
In their last three contests, the Packers have had three different running backs rush for 99 yards or more in a game. Last week, even against Detroit’s shaky secondary, Green Bay was committed to the run throughout: 33 rushing attempts and 31 passing plays. Rookie Eddie Lacy is developing into an every down back and a focal point of the offense. And while Baltimore’s red zone defense has been stifling, Green Bay’s red zone offense has been scuffling; 0-fer the game scoring TDs in the red zone last week against Detroit.
Both quarterbacks have downfield arm strength, but both offenses are settling for a lot of dink and dunk this year. In particular, Joe Flacco is ranked #22 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt this season, right below Christian Ponder. And while Rodgers numbers are significantly higher, much of that has been on catch and run short passes; something the Ravens defense has been very good at defending. Neither squad has an elite level offensive line and both quarterbacks have faced significant pressure for extended stretches this season.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
By Rob Veno
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -1.5 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -2 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Tampa Bay -1.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Philadelphia -0.5 1st half
Tough to gauge how Tampa Bay is going to come out of the bye week after having so much conflict between head coach Greg Schiano and former quarterback Josh Freeman. They should come out with extreme intensity and their sights set on getting into the win column but if things go wrong at the outset of this contest they could get discouraged. The wretched play of the entire NFC East Division is the only reason Philadelphia remains in a somewhat confident place heading into this Sunday. Local media and fan base alike were all ready to jump ship on Chip Kelly’s initial season had the Eagles lost to the winless Giants last week, but the victory along with the solid play of backup Nick Foles have everyone still in full support mode.
The fundamental matchup here for Philadelphia is as tough to project as it is to figure Tampa’s psychological state. The Eagles high tempo offense is something the Buccaneers can’t simulate in practice even with an extra week to get ready so their strong defensive numbers thus far could get inflated. However, tempo and the offensive production it could possible create is really the only edge Philly’s offense has because Tampa’s defensive unit is better in all phases. Should they adjust and get accustomed to playing against the speed in which the Eagles run plays, their pass rush, run defense and pass coverage are all capable of keeping Philadelphia pretty quiet on the scoreboard. However, Tampa’s offense has not been an asset to the club thus far and rookie starting quarterback Mike Glennon could be the perfect elixir for what’s been a porous Eagles defense.
One thing that could hurt the Bucs tremendously is the unexpected setback for starting OG Carl Nicks who’s foot infection has returned and it’s now likely he’s out for this game. Tampa’s front line may now be hard pressed to provide ample run blocking for RB Doug Martin and solid protection for Glennon. Solid protection will be vital here because Philadelphia is a blitz oriented defense and they’re going to apply pressure at every opportunity. Taking advantage of an Eagles defense that ranks 29th in pass yards allowed (326.0 ypg), 31st in total yards allowed (434 ypg) and 30th in points allowed (31.8 ppg) is a must here for Tampa.
For the Eagles offense, the key will be protecting the football. Should Foles and running backs McCoy and Brown do so, Philadelphia will dent the Tampa Bay defense enough times over four quarters to put up enough points for a win. Each team has shown a high tendency to hurt themselves with penalties thus far as Tampa Bay ranks #1 in most penalty yards (85.25 pg) and 2nd in penalties against them (8.75 per game). Philadelphia is tied for 4th penalties committed 7.8 per game and those have amounted to 68.8 yards against them. Without the silly mistakes, without the injury to Nicks and without a rookie quarterback making his first road start, Tampa’s probably the better team. The Bucs are definitely saddled with two of those and it’s impossible to know if they’ll eliminate the third for this game. With all the contradictory elements to this game I’ll lay off the side and total but take a small play on the Eagles -0.5 for the first half. Expect Philadelphia’s offensive pace and style to get the best of Tampa Bay early on and guide the Eagles to a halftime lead.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Week 6 NFL
Raiders (2-3) @ Chiefs (5-0) — Oakland is 8-3 in last 11 games of this ancient rivalry, with average total in last four, 28.5; Raiders won last six visits to Arrowhead, with three wins by 3 points and other three by 10+- they won 26-16/15-0 in LY’s meetings, but this is new KC team, with a +10 turnover ratio (15-5)- they have yet to allow more than 17 points in any game. Chiefs are 1-1 as home favorites this year (won 17-16/31-7 at home), 4-15-1 since ’07. Oakland is banged-up at RB; after running ball for 171-221 yards in first two games, they’ve averaged 85.7 last three games. Pryor was 18-23/221 passing last week, a big improvement. Since ’08, Raiders are 23-15 as road dog; since ’06, they’re 18-4 as a divisional road underdog. Oakland is +5 in turnovers in last four games, with only three giveaways, and two of those were in game Flynn (since cut) started. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 5-3 vs spread this year.
Eagles (2-3) @ Buccaneers (1-3) — Glennon gets second start for Tampa, first since Freeman got cut; he was 24-43/173 in first start, a 13-10 home loss to Arizona that Bucs led 10-0 at half. Tampa hasn’t scored second half point in last two games, has been outscored 31-10 in second half so far this year- they have won four of last five post-bye games (1-0 under Schiano). Foles gets first ’13 first start with Vick (hamstring) out; he started last six games LY, with only win 23-21 here at Tampa in Week 15, going 32-51/381, two TDs, no INTs, not bad. Foles was xx-xx/xxx in second half in Swamp last week—Eagles won both division games but are 0-3 outside NFC East, losing by 3-10-32 points. NFC East teams are 2-5 as non-divisional favorites this year; NFC South non-divisional home teams are 4-3. Four of five Eagle games went over total; all four Tampa games stayed under. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs of 5 or less points are 10-6 vs spread.
Packers (2-2) @ Ravens (3-2) — Absence of Pack’s star LB Matthews (thumb) for month should make Green Bay games higher scoring for next few weeks. GB allowed 34 points in losing both its road games, at SF/Cincy, losing to Bengals when they had four of their five takeaways this season. Pack is 17-8 vs spread in last 25 games vs AFC teams; Ravens are 12-7-1 vs NFC teams in Harbaugh era. Ravens are 2-0 at home, allowing 6-9 points (no offensive TDs on 22 drives), allowing three FGs on three red zone drives at home; after running ball for 64 ypg in 2-2 start, they ran it 40 times for 133 yards in narrow win at Miami last week. In its last four games, Baltimore outscored opponents 60-13 in second half, after trailing three of those four games at halftime. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-4 vs spread. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2-1. Non-divisional home underdogs of 4 or less points are 9-6 vs spread.
Lions (3-2) @ Browns (3-2) — So far this season, teams that played on Thursday are 7-1 SU/ATS in next game, as extra rest/prep time obviously helps. Cleveland won all three Hoyer starts, but now he is out for year (ACL) and they’re back to original starter Weeden; Browns averaged 4.1/4.6 per pass attempt in first two games, were at 5.3 or better in Hoyer’s three starts. Over last 10+ years, Detroit is 2-7-2 as a road favorite; they’re 1-2 on road this year, with only win 27-20 at Washington when they threw ball for 378 yards. Question for Lions is health of star WR Johnson; with him late scratch last week, Detroit was outgained 449-286 and scored only one garbage time TD, averaging 4.9 yards/pass attempt, after averaging 7.6 during their 3-1 start (8.8 in Redskin game). Browns’ defense held last three opponents to 4.6 or less yards/pass attempt, but Ponder/Manuel were two of three opposing QBs- they’ll be challenged to match that is Johnson is healthy here.
Panthers (1-3) @ Vikings (1-3) — Tough spot for Viking QB Cassel here, with newly acquired Freeman looming over shoulder, ready to challenge for starting job. Frazier is 0-3 in post-bye games as Viking coach, losing 29-20/45-7/28-10; Minnesota is 3-6-1 as home favorite in Frazier era, losing only home game this year in last minute to Cleveland in what was Hoyer’s first start for Browns (TY 328-409). Vikings should get FB Felton (suspension) back here, which should help open more holes for Peterson, after they ran ball for “only” 127 ypg in 1-3 start. Carolina has outscored foes 37-9 in first half, not allowing a TD, but they’re still just 1-3, outscored 49-16 in second half of their three losses (only win is vs 0-5 Giants). Vikings are 6-4 in this series; Panthers lost five of seven visits here, but haven’t been here since ’08. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 1-5 vs spread. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-4-1 vs number.
Rams (2-3) @ Texans (2-3) — Schaub has thrown pick-6 in NFL-record four straight games; confidence in him is low. Backup Yates would be stopgap at best. Houston lost its last three games, getting outscored 46-3 in second half; they haven’t had play of 20+ yards in two of last three games, only NFL team to have game without 20+ yard play this season and now Schaub’s favorite target, TE Daniels (leg) is out. Rams got smoked in both road games, falling behind 21-0/24-0; they didn’t turn ball over last week but did have punt blocked- they may have found starting RB in Vandy rookie Stacy (Rams ran for 143 yards last week). Road teams won both games in this seldom played series, but Fisher went 13-5 vs Texans while coaching Titans. AFC South teams are 4-11 vs spread outside the division, 1-4 when favored; non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 15-6 vs spread this season. Four of five Ram games and both Houston home games went over the total.
Steelers (0-4) @ Jets (3-2) — Winless Pitt won last five post-bye games, and 18 of 22 against Jets (4-3 last 7), who upset Falcons in Atlanta Monday night; Jets lost 27-10 at Heinz LY, are different team under emerging rookie QB Smith, who was 16-20/170 with no turnovers Monday. Jets were held to 10-13 points (eight TO’s, -8 in two losses; they’ve scored 18-27-30 points in wins, with four TOs (-1) in three games, so when they protect ball, they’ve been pretty good. Jets are 3-6 vs spread in game following their last nine wins; they’re 2-0 at home, beating Bucs/Bills. Under Tomlin, underdog is 19-10-1 in Steeler games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 13-5 in last 18 games as an underdog of 3 or less points. 0-4 Steelers allowed 74 points in losing last three games; they’re already -11 in turnovers, with no takeaways yet!!! This is Steelers’ first visit to Swamp to play Jets since ’07. Last three Jet games, last two Pitt tilts went over the total.
Bengals (3-2) @ Bills (2-3) — Thaddeus Lewis gets 2nd NFL start for Bills, whose three home games (2-1, dog 3-0 vs spread) were decided by total of six points; we note again that teams that played previous Thursday are 7-1 SU/ATS this year, so Bills had extra rest/prep time, important when breaking in new starting QB. How will Bengals handle road trap game after beating Patriots last week, holding Brady without TD pass (first time in 53 games)? Cincy is 17-7 vs spread in game following its last 24 wins, but they’ve lost both road games this year (at Bears/Browns) and scored total of only 19 points (one TD on 21 drives) in last two games. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under total; three of last four Buffalo games went over. AFC East non-divisional home teams are 5-1 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-3. Lewis started for four years at Duke under Cutcliffe, who coached both Manning brothers and is well-regarded QB guru.
Titans (3-2) @ Seahawks (4-1) — Seattle won its two home games 29-3/45-17, outscoring teams 29-0 in first half; Seahawks are 19-7 vs spread at home under Carroll, 9-2 as home favorites; they’ve won five of last six games vs Titans, who are 2-6 in eight visits here, with wins in ‘77/’09. First road game in four weeks for Titans, who covered first two with Locker at QB; they’re 14-8-1 in last 23 games as non-divisional road dogs, but have backup QB Fitzpatrick (21-41/234, 2 INTs last week) playing now. Over last four games, Seattle averaged 181.3 rushing yards/game, but have to be little concerned with passing game that completed less than half its passes in each of last two games. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread, 4-1 at home. AFC South non-divisional dogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-4 on road. Double digit favorites are 4-3 vs spread in NFL games this season. Seattle’s next two games are divisional primetime road games; this is their only home game in five-week stretch.
Jaguars (0-5) @ Broncos (5-0) — Biggest pointspread in NFL history for this one; hard for Denver not to be flat, with Manning’s return to Indy set for primetime next week, but former Jax HC Del Rio is Broncos’ DC- his unit is less likely to look past team that fired him. Only one of Broncos’ five wins was by more than 18 points, but that said, Denver is juggernaut right now, converting 58% of 3rd down plays, scoring 26 TDs on 55 drives, with nine FG tries and only ten 3/outs (three in last three games). Jaguars showed some life on offense last week with explosive WR Blackmon back on field, but 34-20 loss at struggling St Louis doesn’t bode well here, no matter how high the spread. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 4-1 at home; AFC South underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-4 on road. Jaguars won five of last six series games, winning last two visits here, but that was all before #18 came to town. All five Bronco games went over the total.
Cardinals (3-2) @ 49ers (3-2) — Niners won seven of last eight series games, with last six wins all by 14+ points; Cardinals lost last four visits here by average score of 29-9- they scored 9 or less points in five of last seven series games. SF is bully team, trying to run ball down your throat; they won 25-11/34-3 last two weeks, running ball 76 times for 396 yards (5.2/carry) after averaging just 101.7 rushing yards in first three games. SF is 13-4-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 4-4 when laying double digits. Arizona hasn’t allowed second half point (32-0) last two weeks; they won three of last four games, allowing only one TD on 25 drives since 31-7 loss in Superdome, Since 2011, they’re 10-7-1 as road underdogs, 2-1 under Arians. Redbird defense held four of five opponents under 100 rushing yards, with Saints (104) only team to break century mark. This year in NFL, divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 5-3 against spread.
Saints (5-0) @ Patriots (4-1) — Explosive/diverse Saint offense (11 TDs on last 31 drives) visits Foxboro week after Brady’s 52-game streak with at least one TD pass came to end in monsoon at Cincy. NO is averaging 31 ppg at home, 21 on road; they’ve only run ball for 80+ yards in one of five games and have struggled in red zone on road (one TD, five TDs on seven red zone drives on road, 7 TDs, 4 FGs on 11 such home drives). Patriots were just 1-12 on 3rd down last week, after converting 28-66 (42.4%) in first four games; the two games they rushed for less than 130 yards, Pats were held to 13-6 points- they averaged 148.7 ypg, 25.3 ppg in other three games. NO allows 108.6 rushing yards/game. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 1-5 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional home teams are 5-1. Patriots are 8-4 in series, with Saints 3-4 here. Four of first five games for both teams stayed under the total. Non-divisional home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-9-2 vs spread so far this season.
Redskins (1-3) @ Cowboys (2-3) — Washington comes in off first win, then its bye; last year was Skins’ first post-bye win the last five years. Extra week had to be good for Texas native Griffin’s rehab process; Redskins swept Dallas 38-31/28-18 LY, just second time they’ve done that in last 18 years (’05 being other year). Skins lost three of last four visits here, with losses by combined total of six points (1-3-2). Dallas is off 51-48 loss in epic home battle vs Broncos, which had to be little draining for both sides; Cowboys lost three of last four games but are 2-0 as home favorites this year, after being 3-17 from 2010-12. Cowboys are moving ball well; only 15 of their last 110 plays came on third down, but defense was torched for 808 passing yards last two weeks, by Rivers/Manning (9.2/9.9 ypa). Divisional home favorites are 10-6 vs spread, 5-3 if number was 5+ points. Four of last five series totals were 46+.
Colts (4-1) @ Chargers (2-3) — Colts’ HC Chuck Pagano faces his brother John, Chargers’ DC. Chargers allowed 20+ points in all five games; they’re 0-3 when scoring less than 30 points, with losses by 3-3-10 points. Indy won/covered last three games, winning 27-7/37-3 in two road games, with first of those wins in Candlestick. Colts are 7-3 under Pagano in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re +6 in turnovers, with only four giveaways in five games. San Diego has only three takeaways (-7) in five games; they’ve won five of last six series games, and this is first-post Manning meeting; Indy’s last visit here was 23-17 loss in ’08 playoffs. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 4-11 vs spread, 2-6 on road; AFC West teams are 14-4 vs spread outside their division, 5-1 as dogs, 6-2 at home. Non-divisional home underdogs of less than 5 points are 10-6 vs spread this season. Over is 3-1-1 in San Diego games this season.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Sunday's NFL Action
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-0) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -1.5 & 51.5
Opening Line & Total: -2 & 50
The unbeaten Saints seek a sixth straight win with a visit to New England on Sunday.
New Orleans is once again led by QB Drew Brees (344 pass YPG, 12 TD, 4 INT), but its defense continues to surprise with 14.6 PPG allowed (4th in NFL) and a league-low 25:22 time of possession. The Patriots once again hope to get TE Rob Gronkowski back on the field to help a sputtering offense ranked last in the NFL in goal-to-go efficiency (22%) and second-to-last in red zone efficiency (35%). Top RB Stevan Ridley, who missed last week's game with a thigh injury, is also expected to return. Patriots QB Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 53 games in Sunday's 13-6 loss, falling two games short of Brees' NFL record. These teams have split their six meetings since 1992, but the Saints are 5-1 ATS in these matchups, including 3-1 ATS in Foxboro. Although Sean Payton is 25-14 ATS (64%) when facing a winning team as the Saints head coach, since taking the job in New England, Bill Belichick is 27-14 ATS (66%) versus teams that allow 17 PPG or less on the season.
Saints QB Drew Brees has completely dismantled the Patriots in his career, completing 47-of-65 passes (72%) for 723 yards (11.1 YPA), 8 TD and 0 INT during a perfect 3-0 record against them. He also enters this game coming off two mistake-free weeks, completing 59-of-74 throws (80%) for 701 yards (9.5 YPA), 6 TD and 0 INT. Brees is the biggest reason why his offense ranks second in the NFL in time of possession (34:37), fourth in total yards (405 YPG), and seventh in third-down conversions (44%). His top target continues to be TE Jimmy Graham, who has already gained 593 yards and 6 TD this season. Brees also likes to use his running backs in the passing game, as RBs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles each have 30 targets that have led to a combined 474 yards and 3 TD through the air. This has helped make up for a horrible ground game that is averaging 3.1 yards per carry (4th-worst in NFL) and 77.8 rushing YPG (tied for 6th-worst in league). The Saints have committed just two turnovers over the past three games, and takeaways are what the Patriots defense thrives on with 10 already this year. Speaking of turnovers, the New Orleans defense has been pretty adept at making plays with multiple takeaways in four of its five games, which has certainly helped the unit post such low numbers in points allowed and time of possession. The Saints' pass rush has also improved greatly this season with 15 sacks, including 11 over the past three games. The injury bug has not been kind to the New Orleans defense this year with seven defenders on IR, and three others questionable for Sunday's game, S Roman Harper (knee) and DTs Tyrunn Walker (knee) and Tom Johnson (hamstring).
Tom Brady had a dreadful afternoon in Cincinnati last week, completing just 18-of-38 passes for 197 yards (5.2 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT, while being sacked four times. However, Brady was hurt badly by four drops from his receivers, including one in the end zone by WR Julian Edelman in the game's final minute. The probable returns of both TE Rob Gronkowski (29 TD in 27 games since 2011) and RB Stevan Ridley gives Brady more weapons to utilize. Top WR Danny Amendola is still not 100 percent healed from his Week 1 groin injury, but he and Edelman will likely be Brady's top targets again on Sunday. For the Patriots offense to improve its paltry 19.0 PPG (24th in NFL), the rushing attack will likely see plenty of action. Over the past three weeks, New England has rushed for a solid 370 yards on 4.5 YPC, but for the season, the ground game has more lost fumbles (three) than rushing touchdowns (one). The Patriots defense has played exceptionally well this season with 14.0 PPG allowed (2nd in NFL) and 5.1 yards per play allowed (11th in league), but they have not seen a quarterback in the same class as Drew Brees. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is the only opposing signal caller that can be considered above average (EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Josh Freeman and Andy Dalton being the other four opponents), and Ryan burned the Pats for 421 passing yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago. New England has done a nice job with its pass rush this season though, tallying 13 sacks over the past four games, and will need to get in Drew Brees' face to have any chance of stopping the Saints through the air.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-2) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -3 & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -3.5 & 48.5
The Packers seek their first win streak of the season when they visit the Ravens on Sunday.
While Green Bay is 0-2 (SU and ATS) on the road, allowing 34 points in both defeats, Baltimore is 2-0 (SU and ATS) at home, winning those games by a combined score of 44 to 15. However, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a stellar 333 passing YPG, 9 TD and 3 INT this year, while Ravens QB Joe Flacco has 272 passing YPG, 5 TD and 8 INT. The good news for Flacco is that he will not have to worry about Green Bay pass-rushing star OLB Clay Matthews, who is out with a broken thumb. The Packers have run the ball extremely well in their past two games (362 yards, 5.7 YPC), but Baltimore has given up just 3.4 YPC this season (5th in NFL). Green Bay has thrived as a favorite under Mike McCarthy, going 51-33 (61%), but the Ravens are 11-2 ATS (85%) at home off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. These teams have met four times since 1998 with the home team prevailing in each contest by at least eight points. When these clubs last met in Baltimore in 2005, the Ravens rolled to a 48-3 victory.
The Packers' offense has once again been outstanding, gaining 6.7 yards per play (2nd in NFL), and placing third in the league in both points (29.5 PPG) and total yards (453.3 YPG). A great run/pass balance has achieved this success, as the team ranks second in the NFL with 5.3 yards per carry and third in the NFL with 8.2 yards per pass attempt. QB Aaron Rodgers has been able to lead this offense despite taking 11 sacks in four games. While he has been nearly flawless at home (75.0% completions, 10.5 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT), Rodgers has been ordinary on the road, completing 58.8% of his passes for 577 yards, 4 TD and 3 INT. Rodgers has four talented receivers, who have all been targeted at least 22 times this season and who each have 2+ touchdown grabs. WR Randall Cobb leads the team in targets (38) and catches (25) while WR Jordy Nelson paces the club in receiving yards (371) and touchdowns (three), and WR James Jones has been the big-play threat with a 17.8 yards-per-catch average, boosted greatly by an 83-yard touchdown catch last week. TE Jermichael Finely has caught at least five passes in three of his four games. Rookie RB Eddie Lacy is coming off his best performance as a pro last week versus Detroit, rumbling for 99 yards on 23 carries (4.3 YPC). Although his backup, rookie RB Johnathan Franklin, has rushed for a hefty 6.5 YPC this year, Franklin has fumbled in each of the past two weeks, and will likely be delegated to third-string once RB James Starks (187 rush yards, 5.5 YPC) returns from a knee injury, which could be in Week 7. Defensively, Green Bay has been the worst team in the league in terms of red zone efficiency (82%), and has also been burned through the air for 288.8 passing YPG (26th in NFL) and 7.9 YPA (27th in league). The Packers have stuffed the run effectively though, allowing just 86.0 rushing YPG (5th in NFL) and 3.7 YPC (7th in league). The Packers have generated 12 sacks this season, but could struggle in this department without team sack leader OLB Clay Matthews (3 sacks), who is out for the next month with a fractured thumb. This adds to a growing list of injured defenders that includes CB Casey Hayward (hamstring, out), LB Rob Francois (Achilles, out) and LB Brad Jones (hamstring, doubtful). Green Bay has also been hurt by its lack of takeaways, having forced 0-to-1 turnovers in three of its four games this season, but hopes to be able to put major pressure on turnover-prone Ravens QB Joe Flacco.
Flacco has thrown just two touchdown passes and six picks over his past three games, but his team has still won two of those contests. Although this is a pass-heavy offense with Flacco tied for sixth in the NFL in passing attempts (201), RB Ray Rice finally being close to 100 percent will certainly help the team run the football better. The Ravens currently rank second-worst in the NFL with 2.8 yards per carry, but are coming off their best output of the season in terms of rushing yards (133) and YPC (3.3). Rice has never been below 4.0 YPC in his career, but currently has a dreadful 2.9 YPC rate, which hasn't been much better in the receiving game where he has 4.2 yards per catch. Much of this dropoff has been the result of a nagging hip injury. Rice's back-up, second-year RB Bernard Pierce, has been just as inefficient both on the ground (2.9 YPC) and through the air (four catches for seven yards). With the Packers' secondary struggling this season, WRs Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown will be the keys to this offense. Smith is having an incredible 2013 campaign with 556 yards on a 20.6 average, which both rank second in the NFL. He already has 223 yards after catch (3rd in NFL) and 8.3 YAC per reception (4th in league). Smith has also been helped by the emergence of the undrafted rookie Brown, who has caught touchdown passes in three of his four NFL games. Brown missed last week with a thigh injury, but is listed as probable for Sunday. Since being blown out in Denver in Week 1, the Ravens defense has been outstanding, holding its past four opponents to 15.3 PPG and 291.8 total YPG. This includes limiting Miami to 22 yards on 11 carries last week, which improved the run defense numbers to 89.8 rushing YPG allowed (6th in NFL) and 3.4 YPC (5th in league). The pass defense has also been strong since that loss to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, surrendering only 195.8 passing YPG on 5.8 YPA in the past four contests. Like Green Bay, Baltimore is also dealing with its share of injuries on defense with LB Arthur Brown (shoulder), NT Terrence Cody (knee) and DT Marcus Spears (knee) all questionable for this matchup.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -6 & 53
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -5.5 & 53.5
Despite carrying sub-.500 records, the winner of Sunday night's Redskins and Cowboys game could be atop the NFC East standings heading into next week.
Dallas is coming off a hard-fought, 51-48 loss to the Broncos in which it lost by field goal as time expired. The Redskins, on the other hand, just had their bye week and will be looking to win a second straight game after starting the year 0-3. Last season, Washington won both meetings between the two teams, earning a 28-18 victory at home, and prevailing 38-31 on Thanksgiving in Dallas. In two games against the Cowboys last season, Robert Griffin III accounted for 496 total yards and five touchdowns. Those victories make the Redskins 13-3 ATS in this series since 2005. As the coach of Washington, Mike Shanahan is 14-5 ATS versus division opponents, but Dallas has adjusted well to bad defensive performances historically, as the team is 23-10 ATS after allowing 35 points or more in their last game since 1992. Cowboys WR Miles Austin has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring injury but will likely return to action on Sunday night. Redskins RB Alfred Morris (ribs) is also probable to start.
Washington is coming off of a bye week, but was able to win in Week 4 after finally getting a turnover-free game from QB Robert Griffin III. The second-year quarterback had tossed four interceptions in his first three games, but threw for 227 yards and a touchdown in the Redskins' 24-14 victory over the Raiders. RB Alfred Morris rushed for 71 yards on 16 carries in that game, and he continues to run well with 5.3 yards per carry this season. WR Pierre Garcon is the Redskins' best receiver this season with 29 receptions for 339 yards and two touchdowns, and he played great in Dallas last year with four catches for 86 yards, including a 59-yard TD catch. Washington is going to need to establish its running game if it is going to have any chance against the Cowboys because their defense isn't good enough to be on the field for an extended period of time. The Redskins haven't been able to stop anybody this season, as they have allowed an NFL-high 440.5 total YPG, including 298.3 YPG through the air (5th-worst in league) and 142.3 YPG on the ground (2nd-worst in NFL). Washington has allowed 28.0 PPG (T-26th in league) over its first four games.
Dallas has lost its past two games due to some horrendous play from its defense, which has allowed 81 points and 1,023 total yards against the Chargers and Broncos. Last week, the team allowed Broncos QB Peyton Manning to throw for 414 yards and four touchdowns with a passer rating of 129.6. The Cowboys defense has been good against the run this season, allowing just 82.8 yards per game (4th in NFL), but that is mostly because teams have been able to throw at will against them, as they have surrendered 326.4 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL). QB Tony Romo was exceptional last game against the Broncos, completing 25-of-36 passes for 506 yards (14.1 YPA) with five touchdowns. However, Romo ultimately fell short of leading his team to a victory as he threw a pick on his last possession. WR Terrance Williams filled in nicely for injured Miles Austin (hamstring) with four receptions (on four targets) for 151 yards and a touchdown. He will continue to produce if given a chance, as he now has 11 receptions for 222 yards and a touchdown over his past two games. WR Dez Bryant may just be the league's best receiver this season as he has 29 receptions for 423 yards and six touchdowns, including two he had against the Broncos. Dallas' offense has been producing all season with 30.4 PPG (2nd in NFL) and 6.2 yards per play (5th in league), but the defense is severely restricting the club.
Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Sunday's NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)
Joe Flacco is off to a bit of a slow start but could turn things around quickly against a poor pass defense missing its best outside rusher. Flacco will attempt to do just that when the Baltimore Ravens host the banged-up Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers is on the opposite end of the quarterback spectrum with nine touchdowns and three picks but does not have his team in any better position. Green Bay is winless on the road, where it served up 34 points in each of its losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati.
LINE: The Ravens opened +3 and are now +1. The total opened 48 and is up to 49.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-5.0) - Baltimore (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -1.5
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 45.5)
Philadelphia, vying for consecutive wins for the first time in 20 games, finds itself tied for first with Dallas in the weak NFC East despite the losing record. No matter who is under center, running back LeSean McCoy — who leads the NFL with 514 yards rushing and 700 yards from scrimmage — is sure to see a lot of action as part of the league's top rushing attack at 186.6 yards per game.
Second-year coach Greg Schiano has come increasingly under fire as Tampa Bay has lost nine of its past 10 games and five in a row at home dating to last season. His handling of quarterback Josh Freeman, who was benched and later released after a particularly ugly falling out, has intensified the criticism.
LINE: The game opened as a pick with the Bucs moving to +1. The total is 45.5.
WEATHER: Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) - Tampa Bay (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven vs. NFC.
* Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)
Pittsburgh was on a bye following a 34-27 loss to Minnesota in London, but saw one team captain exchanged not-so-friendly fire in the direction of another during the week off. Safety Ryan Clark took issue with Ben Roethlisberger's improvisation, saying that the quarterback's tendency to go off the page often leads to turnovers.
The Jets are second in the league in yards allowed (299), but placed LB Antwan Barnes on injured reserve after his knee buckled in Monday's victory over the Falcons. Barnes had two sacks while leading the club with 12 quarterback hits.
LINE: The Jets opened as 1-point home dogs. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+5.0) - New York (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -4.5
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 6.
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers last four vs. AFC.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 44)
The Panthers routed the New York Giants 38-0 in Week 3 behind QB Cam Newton's best game of the season, but they were unable to maintain that momentum after their bye week. Newton hasn't been much of a factor in the run game and Carolina has only two rushing touchdowns.
The Minnesota Vikings don't know who will be their quarterback on Sunday. Regardless of who starts this week, it's likely to be Freeman's job soon enough after he signed a prorated $3 million deal following his release in Tampa Bay.
LINE: The Vikes opened -1. The total opened 44.5 and is down to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (+3.0) - Minnesota (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Vikings -1.5
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 41)
The Kansas City Chiefs will try to keep alive one streak while ending another when they host the rival Oakland Raiders on Sunday. One of three remaining unbeatens in the NFL, the Chiefs are aiming for their first 6-0 start since they opened the 2003 season with nine consecutive wins. However, they have lost six straight home games against Oakland and six of the past eight meetings overall.
Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor was 18-for-23 for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns against San Diego and has completed 72.5 percent of his passes without throwing an interception in his last two games.
LINE: The Chiefs opened -9.5. The total opened 40.5 and is up to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from E at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - Kansas City (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -11
* Underdog is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC West.
St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5, 42)
Rams QB Sam Bradford is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Jacksonville and has thrown for 1,315 yards and 10 scores. St. Louis ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing offense and team leader Daryl Richardson (162 yards) averages a paltry 2.9 yards per carry but rookie Zac Stacy impressed with 78 yards against the Jaguars in his first career start.
Quarterback Matt Schaub is experiencing a miserable stretch and might need a strong rebound performance to retain his job when the Texans host the Rams Sunday. Schaub has thrown a pick-six interception in four consecutive games – the first NFL player to ever do so – and his struggles have been magnified by a three-game losing streak.
LINE: The Texans opened -6.5 and are now -7.5. The total opened 43 and is down to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.5) - Houston (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -8.5
* Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+6, 41.5)
Cincinnati's stellar defensive performance last week overshadowed another mediocre effort by quarterback Andy Dalton and the offense, which has managed one TD in two games.
Buffalo seeks its third straight home win behind the well-traveled Thaddeus Lewis, whose only career start came in the 2012 regular-season finale, when he threw for 204 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
LINE: The Bengals opened -9.5 and are now -6. The total opened 42 and is down to 41.5.
WEATHER: There is a 35 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-2.0) + Buffalo (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -6.0
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Bills last four games following a ATS loss
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+1, 44)
Detroit enters Week 6 tied with the Chicago Bears for the top spot in the NFC North after suffering a 22-9 loss at division rival Green Bay last Sunday. Defensive end Ziggy Ansah leads all NFL rookies with 3.5 sacks.
Cleveland has been one of the surprise teams in the league in the early going, reeling off three consecutive victories after losing its first two games. The Browns, who share first place in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, rallied from an early 10-point deficit and scored the final 20 points en route to a 37-24 triumph over Buffalo in Week 5.
LINE: The Browns opened +3 and have been bet up to +1. The total opened at 46 and is down to 44.
WEATHER: There is a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the East endzone at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) + Cleveland (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -1.0
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions last five games on grass.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Sunday's NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 40.5)
The Titans are trying to get running back Chris Johnson (294 yards) untracked after he had just 38 yards on 25 carries over the past two games against the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee is 1-1 on the road and is one game behind Indianapolis in the AFC South.
The Seattle Seahawks are nearly invincible at home and seek their 11th consecutive victory at CenturyLink Field when they face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. NFC West-leading Seattle has won this season’s two home games against San Francisco and Jacksonville by a combined 54 points and thrives while playing in perhaps the top home-field environment in the league.
LINE: The line opened Seattle -13.5. The total is currently 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 4 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+1.0) - Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -12.0
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Seahawks are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Titans are 2-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have won the last three meetings with the Denver Broncos, but that seems like ancient history as the teams prepare for what is expected to be a lopsided contest Sunday in Denver.
Denver has won 16 straight regular-season games after a 51-48 shootout at Dallas last week. Peyton Manning (1,884 passing yards, 20 TDs) has the offense moving at a record clip, having scored 230 points through five games - the most in NFL history.
LINE: The line opened Broncos -27.5 and is now -26. The total opened 51.5 and is now up to 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.5) - Denver (-9.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -23
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Denver.
* Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 50.5)
New Orleans is one of three undefeated teams in the NFL after passing a big test at Chicago a week ago. The Saints, who have their own star tight end in Jimmy Graham -- who leads the league with 593 receiving yards and ranks third in the NFL in total offense.
The Pats got back wide receiver Danny Amendola in last week's 13-6 setback but he caught just four passes and looked rusty as New England failed to score a touchdown for the first time since a 16-9 loss to the Jets in 2009.
LINE: The Pats opened -1. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under clear skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-6.0) - New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -2.5
* Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 9-2 in Saints last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games following a S.U. loss.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 41)
With Arizona adding quarterback Carson Palmer to the mix in the offseason, it was expected that the Cardinals' passing game would improve dramatically over years past. That has yet to happen, however. The Cardinals rank 22nd in passing yardage per game and Palmer has struggled to find the open man.
The San Francisco 49ers are back to their dominant selves following back-to-back one-sided losses last month. San Francisco has won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 27-13 decision in their previous encounter Dec. 30.
LINE: The 49ers opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total opened 41.5 and is down to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear and sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+3.0) - San Francisco (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -10
* Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
* Over is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 games overall.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 52)
Washington is looking for its first divisional victory and emerged from the dregs of the winless with a 24-14 triumph at Oakland in Week 4. The Redskins surrendered an average of 32.7 points in their first three games but tightened things up in the victory over Oakland, holding the Raiders to 298 yards while forcing three turnovers.
Dallas is tied for first place in the unimpressive NFC East and is staring at two straight divisional opponents with a trip to Philadelphia scheduled for Week 7. The Cowboys proved they could hang with anyone offensively last week, and Tony Romo found a third receiver in Terrance Williams (151 yards, one touchdown) to go along with Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten and give the offense another dimension.
LINE: The Cowboys opened -4.5 and have been bet up to -5.5. The total opened 53 and is down to 52.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+2.5) - Dallas (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -7.5
* Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
* Over is 20-8 in Cowboys last 28 home games.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 6 of the NFL
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- The Baltimore Ravens are 13-0 in their last 13 home games against NFC opponents.
- The Packers have lost five of the last six games on the road dating back to Week 11 of the 2012.
- Nick Foles, who will likely start under center for the Eagles Sunday, was 1-5 in six starts as a rookie last year.
- The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings between the Eagles and Bucs. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home dog.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 16 of the previous 20 meetings against the New York Jets.
- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith was 16-for-20 with three TD passes en route to a 30-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons and AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
- The Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers have played Under in four straight meetings and eight of the last 10. Sunday's total is 44.
- The Oakland Raiders are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in Kansas City.
- Chiefs fans will attempt to set the world record for crowd noise at Arrowhead Sunday. Seattle Seahawks fans set the record in the Sept. 16 rout over the San Francisco 49ers.
- Rams coach Jeff Fisher went 7-3 against Gary Kubiak’s Houston teams when he was coach of the Tennessee Titans.
- Speaking of the Texans, they are one of just three teams (Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers) to have not covered a spread this season. Houston is a 7.5-point home fave Sunday.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have lost six straight games in Buffalo. Their last win was in November 1985.
- Buffalo will start Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Lewis will make his second career start. The Bills are 6-point home dogs Sunday.
- Brandon Weeden returns to starting-QB duties for the Cleveland Browns. Weeden was under center for both Cleveland's losses this season.
- The Lions' two losses have come on the road and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. They are 1-point road faves Sunday.
- The Seattle Seahawks have won 10-straight games at CenturyLink Field and are 9-1 ATS over that stretch. They are 13.5-point home faves against Tennessee Sunday.
- The Titans defense held the Chiefs to 1-for-12 on third-down conversions last week. The Seahawks rank 28th in the league as they convert just 4.0 third downs per game.
- The Denver Broncos scored 51 points last week against Dallas. The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored 51 points in five games this season.
- The Broncos sport the NFL's only 5-0 O/U record (the Vikings are 4-0 O/U). Sunday's total versus Jacksonville is 53.
- Tom Brady had a passer rating of 52.2 in last week's loss to Cincinnati. It was his lowest rating since 2007.
- The New Orleans Saints have the fewest turnovers in the NFC with five.
- The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between the Cardinals and 49ers. The Cardinals are 10.5-point road underdogs Sunday.
- Tony Romo has done his best work at home. The QB has 19 TDs and just two INTs in his previous six home games.
- The Redskins are 6-0 in their last six games in Dallas. The Skins are 5.5-point road dogs in Dallas Sunday.
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
Week 5 Recap
The ‘over’ produced an 8-6 record last weekend, which included the Broncos 51-48 win over the Cowboys. That outcome was the fourth-highest scoring game in NFL history and tied for the second-highest in regulation since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. On the season, the ‘over’ is 40-37. Denver (5-0) and Minnesota (4-0) are the only two teams to see the ‘over’ cash in all of their games.
As expected, all good things come to an end and that was the case with last week’s line moves. The seven games that received attention at the counter last week went 2-5. Overall, the money moves are 17-8 (68%) on the season. Once again, I only list the matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more, either up or down. I use CRIS, a major offshore sportsbook, because they release their numbers first on Sunday.
Detroit at Cleveland: Opened 45 and dropped to 43½
Carolina at Minnesota: Opened 46½ and dropped to 44
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Opened 45 and dropped to 41½ (QB change for Bills)
Jacksonville at Denver: Opened 48 and jumped to 54
Washington at Dallas: Opened 51 and jumped to 53
Indianapolis at San Diego: Opened 46 and jumped to 50
Last week, Marc Lawrence informed us of some total angles and we’ll remind you again in Week 6. After five weeks, the one trend to watch is the ‘over’ in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). So far, that trend holds a 19-8 (70%) record, which includes a 4-1 record in Week 5.
On Sunday, we have five matchups that fit the above criteria.
Green Bay at Baltimore – The Ravens have allowed 15 points in their two home games, both easy ‘under’ tickets. Meanwhile, Green Bay has surrendered 68 points in two road games, which helped the ‘over’ in each contest.
Detroit at Cleveland – The Browns scored 16 points in the two games that QB Brandon Weeden started this season. The Lions have seen the ‘under’ cash in all three of their road games.
St. Louis at Houston – The ‘over’ is 4-1 for St. Louis this season, largely due to a defense allowing 28.5 PPG. The Texans have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 at home, both games helped with overtime.
Tennessee at Seattle – The Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 the last three weeks. The Titans haven’t played on the road since Week 2.
New Orleans at New England – Both teams have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1 this season.
Oakland at Kansas City: The ‘under’ has gone 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between this pair, with the lone push happening last season. Prior to last week, the Chiefs had watched their first four games go ‘under’ the number behind a defense that’s allowing a league-best 11.6 points per game.
Arizona at San Francisco: Nothing solid to watch in this series as the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 in each of the past three seasons. The 49ers have scored 38, 23, 27 points at home during this span but Arizona has only totaled 27 points (7, 7, 13) in its last three visits to the Bay Area.
Washington at Dallas: (See Below)
Under the Lights
We finally saw some ‘under’ tickets come in last Sunday night but the ‘over’ cashed on MNF and again this past Thursday. Through five weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 12-6 (67%) in games played for a primetime audience. Two more matchups this week and the shootouts are definitely expected.
Washington at Dallas: The Redskins had a lot of success against the Cowboys last season, putting up 38 points at Dallas on Thanksgiving and 28 points in Week 17 at home. Last year’s totals (47, 48½) were the highest numbers that oddsmakers have posted on this head-to-head matchup. Fast forward to this season and it’s apparent that Washington hasn’t looked as explosive (22.8 PPG), especially quarterback Robert Griffin III. The Cowboys put up 48 points last week and still lost, which tells you something about their defense but then again it was Denver who scored 51. That outcome has definitely inflated this line, which already moved from the opener (see above). Still, it’s hard to ignore that Dallas is averaging 38.3 PPG at home this season.
Indianapolis at San Diego: This is another matchup in Week 6 that saw the ‘over’ get early attention at the betting counter. The Colts have been steady all season on offense (27.8 PPG) and their defense (15.8 PPG) is underrated. San Diego has proven that it can score (25 PPG) but it also gives up a nice chunk of points (25.8 PPG) and more importantly yards (406), which is ranked near the bottom of the league. In two road games, Indy is averaging 32 PPG and that includes a 27-point effort at San Francisco. Despite those great numbers, the ‘under’ went 2-0 in those games. The ‘over’ is 2-0 at home in San Diego this season and both results were never in doubt either.
Finally, we’re able to get into the black on the season with a 3-1 mark ($190). On the season, we’re up $160 based on one-unit plays but more importantly, our Best Bets are producing nice results through eight games (6-2). Team totals are 2-2 overall but our Teasers are just 1-3, which needs to be corrected. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Pittsburgh-N.Y. Jets 41
Best Under: Jacksonville-Denver 54
Best Team Total: Under Denver 40
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Pittsburgh-N.Y. Jets 32
Over Baltimore-Green Bay 39
Over Indianapolis-San Diego 41
Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 13
Week 6 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Raiders at Chiefs (-8, 41)
Oakland: 2-3 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Kansas City: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Chiefs are off to their first 5-0 start since 2003 after holding off the Titans, 26-17 as 2½-point road favorites. Oakland cruised past rival San Diego last Sunday night, 27-17 to cash as 5 ½-point underdogs, while picking up its second home win in three tries this season.
Previous meeting results: The Raiders pulled off the season sweep in 2012, including a 26-16 triumph at Arrowhead Stadium. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these two AFC West rivals have finished 'under' the total, including five straight at Kansas City.
Betting notes: Since the start of the 2009 season, the Raiders own an impressive 11-1-1 ATS record on the road against divisional opponents, which includes a 'push' in a Week 3 defeat at Denver. The Chiefs have covered just one of their last seven opportunities as a home favorite since 2011, while posting a 2-7 ATS mark in the past nine divisional contests.
Packers (-3, 48½) at Ravens
Green Bay: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Baltimore: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Packers performed well after the bye week by pounding the Lions, 22-9 as 10-point home favorites. Green Bay hit the 'under' for the first time in four games this season, while winning its 10th consecutive contest at Lambeau Field. The Ravens won their third game in the last four weeks after holding off the Dolphins, 26-23, while cashing for the first time as an underdog since winning last season's Super Bowl.
Previous meeting result: Green Bay took care of Baltimore on a Monday night in December 2009, a 27-14 home victory as 3½-point 'chalk.' Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes, while the Packers intercepted Joe Flacco three times, as Baltimore's offense was limited to 185 yards.
Betting notes: The Packers have compiled a 2-4 ATS record under Mike McCarthy as a road favorite against AFC opponents, while going 2-6 ATS since December 2011 on the highway off a home victory. The Ravens have won 10 consecutive home games against NFC foes under John Harbaugh, as the last home interconference defeat came to Carolina in 2006.
Titans at Seahawks (-13½, 41)
Tennessee: 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Seattle: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Titans ended their three-game homestand with a 26-17 defeat to the Chiefs, while not covering for the first time in three underdog opportunities this season. The Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season after blowing a double-digit lead in a 34-28 setback at Indianapolis as short road favorites.
Previous meeting result: Tennessee knocked off Seattle in the final week of the 2009 season, 17-13, but the Seahawks cashed as six-point home underdogs. Chris Johnson rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns for the Titans in the franchise's first victory at Seattle in the last six tries dating back to 1988.
Betting notes: After putting together a 2-5 ATS record last season as a road underdog, Tennessee has cashed in away 'dog chances at Pittsburgh and Houston this season. The Seahawks are pretty close to money-in-the-bank at CenturyLink Field by covering 11 of the last 12 home contests since 2011, including a 7-1 ATS mark as a favorite.
Jaguars at Broncos (-26½, 53)
Jacksonville: 0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS
Denver: 5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Jaguars continue to be the biggest disaster in the league after falling at St. Louis, 34-20 as 11-point road underdogs. Jacksonville has failed to cover in each of its first five games, while allowing at least 34 points in each of the past three contests. The Broncos came out on top in probably the most entertaining game of the season, a 51-48 shootout victory at Dallas, but the Cowboys grabbed the cover as 7 ½-point home underdogs.
Previous meeting result: Back in 2010, the Jaguars downed the Broncos, 24-17 as three-point home favorites. Since 2004, Jacksonville has taken four of five meetings from Denver, including in each of the last two visits to Sports Authority Field (if that means anything with the current state of the Jags).
Betting notes: This pointspread is the biggest in NFL history, as the Jaguars entered this season with a 5-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog since 2011. However, Jacksonville has failed to cash when receiving at least 10 points in two opportunities this season. Since November 2005, Peyton Manning has compiled a pedestrian 10-10 ATS record in the role of a double-digit favorite.
Saints at Patriots (-2½, 50 ½)
New Orleans: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
New England: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Saints picked up an impressive road victory at Soldier Field by controlling the Bears in a 26-18 triumph. New Orleans was outgained for the first time all season, but the Saints' defense held their fifth straight opponent to 18 points or less. The Patriots couldn't overcome a torrential rain storm in a 13-6 defeat at Cincinnati last Sunday, the first loss for New England this season. New England finished 'under' the total for the fourth time in five games, while dropping to 1-3 ATS as a favorite.
Previous meeting results: New Orleans trounced New England in a Monday night blowout in 2009, a 38-17 rout as one-point home favorites. The Saints' offense racked up 480 yards, but the game finished 'under' the total of 57.
Betting notes: The Patriots are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS the last nine games off a loss, but all four non-covers came as a favorite of at least 9 ½ points. New Orleans has put together a 2-5 ATS record on the road when coming off an away contest the week before dating back to 2010, but the Saints are 7-2 SU/ATS the previous nine contests against AFC foes.
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