Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

NY Giants at Chicago
The Giants look to bounce back from their 36-21 loss to Philadelphia last weekend and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. New York is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+9)

Game 101-102: NY Giants at Chicago (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 127.914; Chicago 133.290
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+9); Over

NCAAF

Rutgers at Louisville
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Rutgers team that is coming off a 55-52 win over SMU and is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in the previous game. Louisville is the pick (-18) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 21 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-18)

Game 103-104: Rutgers at Louisville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 85.024; Louisville 106.405
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 21 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Louisville by 18; 54
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-18); Under

Game 105-106: San Diego State at Air Force (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 76.545; Air Force 71.112
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 5 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: Arizona at USC (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 99.778; USC 95.149
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: USC by 6; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6); Under

MLB

Detroit at Oakland
The Tigers look to close out the series and take advantage of an Oakland team that is 1-5 in its last 6 home games when the total is set at 6 1/2 runs or lower. Detroit is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115)

Game 955-956: Detroit at Oakland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.641; Oakland (Gray) 15.033
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Under

WNBA

Minnesota at Atlanta
The Lynx look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games against teams with a winning SU record. Minnesota is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2)

Game 655-656: Minnesota at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 123.888; Atlanta 113.633
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 10; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2); Under

NHL

NY Rangers at Anaheim
The Ducks look to take advantage of a Rangers team that is 1-5 in its last 6 road games. Anaheim is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-140)

Game 51-52: Colorado at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.233; Boston 12.787
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over

Game 53-54: Columbus at Buffalo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.787; Buffalo 10.871
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 55-56: Carolina at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.168; Washington 10.054
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+140); Under

Game 57-58: Phoenix at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.548; Detroit 12.167
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Over

Game 59-60: Florida at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.319; Tampa Bay 11.670
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Over

Game 61-62: Toronto at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.423; Nashville 10.271
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Under

Game 63-64: Winnipeg at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.230; Minnesota 10.021
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 65-66: Montreal at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.926; Edmonton 10.545
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 67-68: San Jose at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.997; Vancouver 11.265
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100); Over

Game 69-70: NY Rangers at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.098; Anaheim 12.515
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-140); Under

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Dave MathewsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bears vs. GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 47FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The New York Giants just can't stop anybody. They allowed 36 points to the Eagles last week and that's one of their better defensive performances. The Bears have lost two straight as their defense has given up 66 points in their last two games. This defense is not similar to the 1986 Super Bowl version. Expect a lot of scoring.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona vs. USCFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 47½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona had some great defensive numbers...until they finally played a pro style offense, off a 31-13 defeat to Washington. Now they face another pro style attack and the over is 20-8 in the Wildcats last 28 games on grass, as well as 7-2 over the total in PAC 12 games. USC changes coaches after giving up 62 points to Arizona State. Was it coaching? Or talent? Well, this team struggled on defense all of last season, as well. The over is 18-7-2 in the Trojans last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 11-4 in Trojans last 15 games in October. Play Arizona/USC over the total.

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Doug UpstoneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego St vs. Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 55FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For Thursday, Play UNDER on teams like San Diego State, after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. In the last two years, this college football system is 12-4, 75% with the average total score 48 points.

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Soccer Crusher
Portuguesa RJ + Goias UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 467-16, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 467-400-65


Football Crusher
Arizona +6 over USC
(System Record: 23-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 23-15

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bookiemonsters

157-109-3 run
33-26-4 run last 63 plays
pod detroit tigers game under 6.5

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Jimmy Boyd

Louisville -19

The Scarlet Knight's 4-1 record has earned them a little more respect than they deserve coming into this matchup against Louisville. Rutgers will be without their star running back, Paul James, who is out with a leg injury. That will be a big hit to an offense that runs the ball on 41 of their 70 offensive plays. The Scarlet Knight's defense has also been soft this season, and they are facing a Louisville team that has averaged 44.4 points per game.

The biggest advantage Louisville has in this game is their defense. They have held opponents to a mere 6.8 points per game this season. The run defense is solid, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry and 80 rushing yards per game. With Paul James out due to injury, I expect to see the Scarlet Knights really struggle to move the ball with any efficiency. Rutgers has also been turnover prone this season. They have five turnovers in their last two games, and they will be up against the best defense they have faced this season.

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Rob Vinciletti

San Diego St vs. Air Force
Play: Over 55

Both teams have mediocre defenses that allow 437 and 493 yards per game. SD. St is averaging over 400 yards on offense and Air force 379. In the series 5 of the last 7 here have flown over the total and simulations have this game averaging in the mid to high 60/s. Air Force has gone over 11 of 15 as a dog and the last 4 in Conference play. Look for this one to go over the total here tonight.

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Matt Fargo

Toronto vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville

We will be backing Nashville as it looks to make it two straight home wins after defeating Minnesota on Tuesday. The Predators opened the season with two straight losses, both coming on the road by two goals at St. Louis and at Colorado. This is pretty typical as they have been a great home team and a very poor road team over the past few years as they are 62-28-17 at home and 47-50-11 on the road since 2010. Adding on to that, since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, their 193 home victories are fourth most in the NHL in that span and Nashville is the only team in the NHL to post at least 23 home victories in seven consecutive full seasons. They definitely have some momentum going as they scored three third period goals against the Wild as they overcame a two-goal deficit. That was the start of a five-game homestand for Nashville so it has a chance to build on the positives. After starting the season with three straight wins, the Leafs suffered their first loss Tuesday night against Colorado, 2-1. While Toronto is off to a great start, it has already been battered with a ton of injuries. The Leafs could then have as many as 10 players in the lineup who have less than 120 games NHL experience, including other youngsters like Carter Ashton, Nazem Kadri and Jake Gardiner. The losses of note have been David Clarkson (to a 10-game suspension that is looking more costly by the day), Nikolai Kulemin and Mark Fraser and those absences have tested the Leafs depth. So far, six different players have been called up because of injuries and suspension. Of those, only one has lasted more than two games before going back. Now with all of the replacements, Toronto is the youngest team in the NHL, with an average age of just 25.9 years. The Leafs are 2-0 on the road but they are in a very tough spot not being close to full strength. We are getting a solid number on the home team and look for Nashville to pull away in this one.

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CHICAGO -7½ over N.Y. GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears are not getting much respect these days. They almost lost to Minnesota, they almost blew a big lead against Pittsburgh (Pitt was down 27-23 early in the 4Q after being down 24-3) and they were all but buried against the Lions in that flattering 40-32 final. Against New Orleans last week, Chicago never really stood a chance and as a result of all this, they are underpriced in this game. Truth is, the Bears have been somewhat self-destructive, which is not a characteristic of this club. When at home, Jay Cutler has yet to throw for fewer than two touchdowns and averages almost 300 yards per game and that was facing better defenses than what is coming this week. Better yet, the Giants only average one sack per week so there is no reason for Cutler to undercut any of his averages in this game. The Bears are a team with weapons galore and a much better defense than they’ve shown. 
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Enter the New York football Giants on a Thursday night prime time game in which there will be 100 camera shots of Tom Coughlin looking like he wants to say "what are you looking at?" The Giants are looking to set some records with over 31 points allowed in all five games. Doesn't matter if the offense shows up or not, the defense never allows fewer than 31 points and that’s unlikely to change here. Eli Manning leads the NFL with 12 interceptions and two lost fumbles along the way as well. Manning has no rushing support and an offensive line that cannot hold anyone out. Defenses know to blitz because more often than not, they can reach him or at least hurry him into a bad decision. Manning continues to throw the ball up for grabs on deep routes in hope of a miracle catch or a pass interference call. Eli Manning looks drunk out there. Again, Eli has thrown 12 interceptions and been sacked 15 games. The G-Men are 0-5 and Manning is on pace to throw 38 interceptions. Everyone keeps thinking the Giants can flip a switch and start winning but that switch is busted. This team is putrid and on four days rest and having to travel, this might be their worst showing of the year and we include that 38-0 loss to the Panthers.

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USC -6 over ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Trojans come in with a 3-2 record and have been struggling to win games for two years. As a result, the inevitable firing of Lane Kiffin occurred during the Trojans bye week. Ed Orgeron, the Trojans defensive line coach takes over on an interim basis and a fresh start could be precisely what the doctor ordered here. Still, with an 0-2 conference record and allowing 62 points to Arizona State in its last contest, USC may appear to be overpriced here but we don’t see it that way at all. USC still possess a rock-solid defense. It held a very good Utah State offense to just 14 points, it held B.C. to seven points and it held a potent Washington State to 10 points. That’s some serious defense indeed, as the Cougars rank 8th in the country in passing yards while the Aggies of Utah State rank in the top 40 in passing, rushing and total yards per game. The Trojans now take a big step down in class when facing a Wildcat offense with a QB that looks lost out there.
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Arizona QB, B.J. Denker has completed just 45 out of 90 pass attempts for a measly 445 yards and two TD’s. That came against Northern Arizona, UNLV and University of Texas, San Antonio. When facing a good defense and a quality squad in Washington last week, the Wildcats were buried, 31-13. Incidentally, those 31 points the Wildcats surrendered to the Huskies last week came in a downpour. The Wildcats 3-1 record is all smoke and mirrors. This is an average Arizona football team with a good record and skewed numbers. They rely heavily on the rush because its passing game is non-existent. They have played three cupcakes and one monster and were destroyed by the monster. USC has played a much tougher schedule and they defeated the Utes and came damn close to defeating the Cougars. The Trojans are still a quality club that did not respond well to Kiffin. A coaching change was needed and we expect a huge respond from USC in support of their new coach. Don’t get fooled into thinking the points here are appealing because this Arizona team is weak and will be exposed as such once again here.

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OAKLAND +100 over DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers were in trouble in Game 4 until a fan reached over the railing in the bleachers and turned an out into a three-run jack. How six umpires missed that is somewhat baffling but these Athletics have responded to any and all adversity the entire season. One could easily argue that inning by inning, game by game, the A’s have been the better team in this series. In fact, Tigers manager Jim Leyland was in such trouble in the last game that he turned his teams’ fortunes to what should’ve been tonight’s Game 5 starter, Max Scherzer to get the Tigers to this winner-take-all finale. That leaves Justin Verlander to finish the job and there are 29 other teams in the league that would feel damn good sending out Verlander. In Game 2, Verlander was nothing short of brilliant. He did what big-game pitchers do and it was a thing of beauty. Now the Tigers, who were heavily favored to win this series before it started, are a seemingly cheap price here and that is somewhat curious. The oddsmakers are fully aware of the participants. Cy Young winner Justin Verlander versus rookie Sonny Gray. The powerful Detroit Tigers versus the overachieving Oakland Athletics. We’re suggesting that the oddsmakers could have made the Tigers -130 here and not swayed a single wager but they did not.
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There are certain situations that call for a play on a team that the linesmakers are trying to take you off of. That applies here with the A’s. Detroit is going to take a lot of money in this one game because the oddsmakers have made them an enticing small favorite in an attempt to put people on the wrong side. Is it fixed? Of course not but sometimes the books gamble too. The oddsmakers have taken a position on this game and we want to be on their side because they are usually right.

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ANAHEIM -½ +125 over N.Y. RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. A quick side note to this game is that Jonas Hiller must start for the Ducks for this to have action. We will wait to place this wager until we get confirmation because we are not interested in spotting a half puck with Victor Fasth in net. The Ducks were whacked in their season opener in Colorado but responded nicely with two successive wins over Minnesota and Winnipeg. Anaheim is now 2-1 and should be a little extra jacked up here to not only play the Rangers (it’s been two years since they played New York) but to open its home portion of the schedule. The Ducks have looked better with each passing game. They outshot the Jets 35-17 in their last game and really cut down on scoring chances against. Coming off a season in which they finished third in the NHL in regulation wins (30 in 48 games), the Ducks added bright offensive prospect Jakob Silfverberg, brought back big Dustin Penner and added depth defenseman Mark Fistric. Ryan Getzlaf re-established himself as one of the league’s best forwards and they still have Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry, and young players like Devante Smith-Pelley, Emerson Etem (expected to return tonight) and Cam Fowler are only getting better. That said, this one is more about fading this guest.
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We usually don’t wager against a team that is coming off such a humiliating loss like the Rangers 9-2 debacle in San Jose, but the Rangers appear so lifeless and so ripe to get beat that we’ll make an exception here. There are other problems that surround the Blue Shirts as well. New York is without two of their top six forwards in Rick Nash and Carl Hagelin. Last season's leading scorer, Derek Stepan, did not play in a preseason and it’s showing, as he appears to be a step behind the rest. This is also the Rangers fourth road game of a season-opening nine game trip. Just before the season started, the Rangers went on a long Western road trip that included four days of training camp and golfing in Banff, Alberta, followed by four games in five nights in four different cities that week. They went 0-4 and were outscored 18-5. The Rangers have been on the road since September 25. They are trying to adjust to a new system and establish a new identity but it’s not working. This is a New York team that is running on fumes and that has been completely dominated in two of its three games. The Ranger fade is on for the remainder of their trip unless they show us some serious improvement, which by the way, isn’t likely. 
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Carolina +146 over WASHINGTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. We’ll continue to back this Hurricane team despite losing two of their first three games. This is a Carolina outfit that the market has not caught on to yet and as a result, there is too much value on them to ignore. The ‘Canes two losses were against Detroit and Pittsburgh and they didn’t look a bit out of place in either. Even in their 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Carolina rallied from a 2-0 deficit to tie it early in the third before the Penguins went off for three straight. Carolina’s loss to Detroit occurred in OT but they were the better team on the ice that night. As a significant dog against a Capitals team that is looking weak defensively, Carolina is still offering up great value.
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The Caps are also 1-2 but could easily be 0-3 after they rallied from a 4-1 deficit against Calgary to win it 5-4 in OT. Washington allowed six goals in its season opener in Chicago and they also lost 2-1 to a disorganized Dallas squad. The Caps lost one of the reasons they were so successful last year in Mike Ribeiro, a guy who tallied 49 points in 48 games. Washington’s D-depth is a debacle with guys like John Erskine being forced to eat minutes (unless you’d prefer Jack Hillen?). All their eggs are in the basket of a goalie with 57 career games under his belt, unless you prefer Michal Neuvirth and his jaw-dropping .910 from last year. Either one is bound to look poor behind that shallow group of defenders. It is of no wonder that the Caps allowed 10 goals against in two games against Chicago and Calgary. There is more of that to come because this is probably the least skilled group of defensemen in the NHL and that makes the Caps a huge risk spotting significant lumber.   
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San Jose +106 over VANCOUVERFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. How can you not bet the Sharks here? Granted, Vancouver is 3-1 to open the year but their three wins came against the Oilers, Flames and Devils with the latter two occurring in OT. That trio has three wins combined in 10 games. The Canucks only loss so far came on opening night in San Jose, when they were manhandled in a 4-1 loss. Vancouver’s last win was also a rather emotional one, as the media frenzy was on in Cory Schneider’s return and the Canucks rallied from two down to win it in OT. It wasn’t just another win, as Vancouver wanted it badly in support of Roberto Luongo and a big celebration followed that OT goal. Now the Canucks have to get right back at it against this juggernaut.
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The Sharks have outscored their three opponents 17-4. They outshot the Canucks in their opener 35-22 and they fired away 51 and 47 shots respectively in their next two games against the Coyotes and Rangers. The Sharkies are an absolute top-to-bottom force. They’ve got the type of elite talent teams drool over in Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau (both in the league’s top-30 in points-per-game over the past three seasons) and it goes way further than that. Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski are among the league’s best at what they do too. Brent Burns is a monster on the forecheck who can chip in offensively, and rookie Tomas Hertl has six goals and 1 assist in the first three games. The best part is, their depth forwards are legitimately great when compared to other teams. Dan Boyle is a great puck-mover on the back-end who’s still one of the league’s most prolific offensive defenseman and they have one of the most exciting new d-pairs in the league in Canadian Olympic camp invitee Marc-Edouard Vlasic and young Justin Braun. Put them all in front of elite talent and Cup winner Antti Niemi, and it’s not unreasonable to think this is one of, if not the best team in the West. As a pooch, and with confidence sky high, the Sharks offer up all the value in this one.

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Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit / Oakland Under 6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Plenty of swings and misses are on the menu for Thursday's decisive Game 5 between the Tigers and Athletics. Justin Verlander will get the ball for the Tigers, while rookie Sonny Gray will get a chance to etch his name in baseball lore for the A's. Verlander spent most of this season lying in the weeds, seemingly conserving energy for the postseason. Verlander didn't disappoint in Game 2, going seven shutout innings with 11 punchouts and just one walk. We expect a similar performance from Verlander in Game 5. He has the ability to be downright dominant. Over his last three starts, Verlander has allowed zero runs, 18 baserunners, and has 33 strikeouts over 19 innings. In six career ALDS starts, Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 37.2 innings of work, and he has allowed one run in 23 innings to Oakland over the last two postseasons.
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Sonny Gray was terrific in his first start against the Tigers and although that was their first time seeing him and they now have an idea of what he's capable of, we still think Gray will pitch well. Manager Bob Melvin said that Gray was fearless and it's rather telling that Melvin would go with the rookie over Bartolo Colon, who pitched shutout baseball after giving up three first inning runs in Game 1. During the regular season, Gray posted a 1.99/0.93/.200 slash line at home and that only improved with his eight shutout innings against the Tigers in Game 2. Melvin will have Colon in his back pocket if Gray struggles.
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But we expect both pitchers to be on point. This will be a tight, low-scoring game throughout and the ballpark should also help to keep runs to a minimum, as Verlander was third among qualified pitchers in inducing pop ups and Gray is a ground ball guy against a team with little speed.

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NHL Predictions

Sharks / Canucks Over 5.5

I was absent yesterday, as I was busy with previous commitments and did not feel like short changing you guys with a hurried play. I'm never going to force a bet that isn't researched. However, Kevin nailed a pretty easy winner, so hopefully everyone cashed in on that play in the Kings game. All three of my losses this year have been as close as you can get without winning. Two lost by .5, and my last play was on the Canucks to win in regulation. Of course they bury a goal 2 minutes into OT. Doesn't matter if you win a bet by 10 or 1, though. It's all irrelevant in the end. Let's shake the misfortunes off Thursday and come back strong.

Fortunately enough, the play I like most tonight is in the game I am most excited to watch. It is a battle of the seasons early best, with the San Jose Sharks taking their flawless record of 3-0 on the road to Vancouver. And the Sharks have been just that, flawless. It's not simply the record, the Sharks have been winning games in dominating fashion so far this season. During this three game winning streak, the Sharks have scored a whopping 17 goals, including a nine goal effort in their last outing against the Rangers. The Sharks have been piling the shots on as well, averaging 44.3 per game in their first three games. Problem for the Sharks tonight is the fact that perhaps their best defenseman, Brad Stuart, will be serving the first game of his three game suspension. This opens up a door for the Canucks offense, that hasn't been too bad either. They have scored 14 goals thus far, averaging 3.75 a game. The only reason we are getting a positive price here is because of Roberto Luongo. I think Luongo will ultimately have a good season without the distractions, but I like the Sharks to continue putting the puck in the back of the net. I will be on the over for a regular, 2 unit wager.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

Brass Balls Picks

FREE PICK RECORD BEGINNING  9/1/13   =  28 - 12

Lost last two picks

10/10/13 PICK:   GOTTA TRY THE GIANTS AT + 7

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Arizona/ USC Under 48: The Trojans offense won't correct itself right away and I look for more defensive intensity from them after their melt down last week. The Trojans defense has been very tough at home, allowing just 230.3 ypg and 10.3 ppg, with their 3 home games averaging just 30 ppg so far. The Arizona defense has been tough overall, allowing just 14.3 ppg overall and 22 ppg on the road and they should be able to clamp down on a USC offense that is weak as it is and could be without WR Lee. Arizona runs the ball 66.9% of the time, while the Trojans take to the ground 64.9% of the time. All that running should keep this clock running and the defense's will do the rest to keep the scoring down. Defensive battle in LA tonight.

1 UNIT PLAY

Rutgers +19 over LOUISVILLE: I like that Louisville is one of the most complete teams in the nation, but they also haven't really faced anyone either. I know that Rutgers isn't a top notch club but they are better than any team Louisville has faced yet. The Rutgers offense has really surprised this year, putting up 40 ppg and they will pose a tough test for a Louisville secondary that just hasn't been challenged yet. On defense the Knights are one of the best vs the run and Louisville does need the run to make their passing game go. Still Louisville will get their points, but I feel that Rutgers can put up points with them as well, while their defense will make that crucial 1 or two stops that will keep this game within 2 Tds.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

Nick Parsons

San Jose vs. Vancouver
Pick: Vancouver

On Tuesday I gave out a free play on the +125 Colorado Avalanche over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Today I'll look at another "dog" that I believe offers fantastic value.

Vancouver opened as a -120 favorite, but bettors have been quick to jump on San Jose after it moved to 3-0 with its 9-2 beatdown victory over the Rangers on Tuesday.

Vancouver's only loss of the season was a 4-1 setback on opening night in San Jose, meaning that the "revenge factor" definitely comes into play this evening. Since that loss though, the Canucks have rattled off three-straight victories and are definitely "firing on all cylinders".

Note that San Jose is 6-8 (-6.1 units) the last two seasons after playing three consecutive home games, while Vancouver is 20-7 (+8 units) vs. division opponents in the same time frame.

And to say this is a "revenge spot" for the Canucks would be a huge understatement, as they've lost eight straight to San Jose including last year's first-round postseason sweep.

Vancouver definitely has the right man in net to break the slide to the Sharks as Roberto Luongo is 3-1-2 with a highly respectable 2.09 GAA n his last six vs. them.

San Jose's Antti Niemi has a 1.67 GAA vs. Vancouver over his last eight vs. it, but take note that he'll be without the services of defenseman Brad Stuart tonight who was suspended for three games for an illegal check to the Rangers' Rick Nash.

I think the Canucks offer a lot of value in this matchup.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

Bruce Marshall

San Diego St vs. Air Force
Pick: Under

Recent series history between San Diego State and Air Force has been rather low-scoring, with four of the last five meetings falling well beneath the posted "total" in the mid 50s tonight. And while it might not be too late for SDSU to salvage season after slow start in September, especially since juco QB Kaehler (3 TDP vs. Nevada) appears to be getting comfy in starting role, the Aztecs had been scoring barely 20 ppg prior to last Friday's shootout vs. defense-shy Nevada.  But it's that series history that suggests another releatively lower-scoring game tonight, especially since San Diego State HC Rocky Long is so familiar with the Air Force option after his 11 seasons at New Mexico and last three on Montezuma Mesa (2010 as d.c., 2011-present as head coach).  Falcs also now working on their third QB of the season, and Troy Calhoun's option was grounded last week at Annapolis.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 10

Dave Price

Louisville -19

You want to fade road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that check in off a close win of 7 points or less over a conference rival when they're matched up against an opponent that's coming off a win against a conference rival. Doing so has produced a 40-14 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average score of 37.0 to 14.9. Louisville has smoked its last two opponents by 72 and 23 points, respectively, and the numbers tell us to keep riding the Cardinals. They are 12-3 ATS in home games after two consecutive wins by 17 or more points since 1992. They have won by an average of 28.5 points in this spot. Also, Louisville is 7-0 ATS when matched up against a team with a winning percentage above 75% under coach Strong. Rutgers is not the same team that it was last season when it played Louisville to a three-point game. It returns just 10 starters from that team while the Cards return 16. The Scarlet Knights had no answer for Fresno State's offensive attack or SMU's, and I don't see them being able to slow down Louisville either. Rutgers was able to trade punches in those games but will have trouble doing so here against an experienced Louisville defense that ranks No. 1 in the country with 6.8 points allowed per game. Lay the points.

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