College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma vs Texas

The annual matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) and Texas Longhorns (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) in what is the Red River Rivalry will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday. Tough spot for the severely banged up Longhorns' who have rule QB David Ash out for the contest. This latest injury has oddsmakers putting a 14 point premium on Stoops' troops. Plenty of reason to back Sooners on a ten game Big 12 win streak. Going back to 2000, Sooners are 9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS in this rivalry and they're 3-0 SU/ATS past three meetings vs. Longhorns' putting up a combined 146 points on the board winning by an average 29.3 points/game.

Oregon at Washington

Oregon Ducks destroying Colorado 57-16 this past weekend behind QB Marcus Mariota's five touchdown passes, two running majors take the point-a-minute show on the road for a clash with Washington at Husky Stadium. Ducks and their touchdown machine Mariota (21 TD) averaging a 59.2 points/game will face their biggest test of this campaign against a much improved WAZZU defensive squad allowing 14.8 points/game on 286.8 total yards. Still, sifting through the sports betting numbers easy to see why oddsmakers have Oregon installed 13.5-point favorites. Ducks have owned this Oregon-Washington rivalry of late, winning nine in a row by at least 17 points/game (8-0-1 ATS). If that were not enough, the road has been kind to 'Quack Attack' as they've won 17 straight true road games cashing 13 tickets including a stretch of 10 straight as a road favorites. A final few betting nuggets in favor of Oregon, Ducks have an 8-1 ATS stretch on the road vs the Pac-12, Huskies are on a 1-5 ATS skid as double digit underdog.

Florida at LSU

It will be offense vs defense when LSU (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) and Florida Gators (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) collide in Baton Rouge Saturday afternoon. LSU guided by QB Zach Mettenberger tossing 15 TD and a quad of running back's recording 18 majors are scoring 45.5 points/game on 488.8 total yards. Gators not as productive on the offensive end (25.0 PPG) make it up with a stingy defense allowing just 12.2 point/game on a lowly 217 yards split between 152 passing, 65 rushing yards/game. Les Miles’s bunch can certainly pile up points but the squad has struggled defensively the past two weeks giving up 70 points on 550 passing (6 TD), 412 rushing yards (2 TD). Florida isn't likely to go into Death Valley and win outright but go to think Gators' keep this one close enough to cover the expected 7-point spread. QB Tyler Murphy completing 72.2% of his passes (5 TD) since replacing Jeff Driskel along with an always dangerous Gator ground game (192 RYG) Florida takes advantage of LSU's defensive weakness. Add in a 'D' which will find ways to bog down LSU high-powered offense the lean from here is Florida. Keep in mind, Gators have had a knack of cashing tickets within the SEC of late (8-3 ATS) and in this series (6-1 ATS).

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College Football Betting Preview: Oregon at Washington
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com

Oregon at Washington
Saturday, 1 pm PT - FS1
CRIS Opener: Oregon -10.5 O/U 76
CRIS Current: Oregon -13.5 O/U 75.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oregon -15.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Over

This PAC-12 showdown should be played at a very fast, breakneck pace from both of these up-tempo offenses as Oregon and Washington are poised to light up the scoreboard for the duration of this game. Oregon has been executing its up-tempo spread attack at a flawless rate averaging 59.2 points per game and they have scored at least 50 points in a school record five straight games. The Ducks rank second nationally in total offense with 630.4 yards per game.

Last week against Colorado we got to see the depth that Oregon has as they employed a very strong ground attack even without top RB De’Anthony Thomas. He didn’t suit up due to an ankle injury and is questionable to return on Saturday. Byron Marshall picked up the slack with 122 yards on 23 carries. Marcus Mariota remains one of the most dangerous dual threat quarterbacks in the country with 1,358 passing yards, 14 passing TDs, no INTs, and 338 yards and 7 rushing TDs. Washington’s defense is improved this season but they have yet to be tested the way they will be tested here. Last week against Stanford, Washington’s defense allowed 31 points and the concerning part is the 179 rushing yards at 4.4 yards per carry they allowed. The Huskies have repeatedly been unable to slow down Oregon’s offense yielding 52, 34, 53, 43, 44 and 55 points in their last six meetings.

Oregon’s defense has looked a notch or two better this season but they too have yet to face any kind of offense as explosive as Washington. Oregon played Nicholls State (FCS), Virginia, Tennessee, California and Colorado and I don’t consider any of those offenses in the same ballpark as UW. Quarterback Keith Price has thrown for 1,394 yards and 11 TDs while completing an impressive 71% percent of his pass attempts. Price has been intercepted just three times and will be highly motivated to make up for his poor performance against Oregon last year when he threw two costly picks. He has a ton of great receiving weapons with Jaydon Mickens, Kevin Smith and Kasen Williams along with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Running back Bishop Sankey keeps becoming more prominent by the week with 732 yards and 7 TDs on the season. Washington can run it and they can throw it and most importantly, they can do it better than any opponent that Oregon has seen to this point. Playing in front of the home faithful, I expect Washington put up its share of points and make life much tougher on the Ducks’ stop unit. The Huskies have scored 38, 56 and 31 points in their first three home games and had a decent performance on the road against a great Stanford defense last week scoring 28 points and totaling 489 yards of offense.

I can’t recommend a play on the side here. Oregon is laying two touchdowns on the road against a very capable Washington team does not provide much value but at the same time, Washington has lost nine straight games to Oregon by margins of 17 points or more – not to mention the Ducks are still a perfect 5-0 ATS despite being power rated so highly. This is a very high total in the mid 70’s but I think it is impossible to play it under. Oregon games have had 69, 69, 73, 71 and 73 points but those were games facing teams with far inferior offenses than what the Huskies bring to the table. It’s always important to check the weather for any game in Seattle when betting totals. The current Saturday forecast calls for just a 20% chance of rain and hardly any wind. This game has all the ingredients to be a mega shootout and as a result, I’ll recommend a play on the over.

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Big Ten Report - Week 7
By ASAWins.com

Ten of the Big Ten schools squared off last weekend and the home team posted a 3-2 record in the five games. Favorites went 3-2 both straight up and against the spread but that record could easily be 2-3 ATS if it wasn't for Ohio State's late cover at Northwestern. The two underdogs to win outright were Indiana (+3½) and Michigan State (+ 1½), who knocked off Penn State and Iowa respectively. Total players watched the 'over' go 4-1 in Week 6.

Wisconsin (-10, 57½) vs. Northwestern

Wisconsin returns from its bye week as a heavy 10-point favorite over the visiting Wildcats of Northwestern for Homecoming in Madison. This is a bad situation for Northwestern. Wisconsin is coming off of a loss to Ohio State, but had a bye week to prepare for the Wildcats. Northwestern, on the other hand, is off of a home loss to Ohio State in the proclaimed “biggest game in Northwestern history.” The Wildcats will have to regroup quickly, because the Badgers are ready to get back on the field and rarely lose in Madison. Wisconsin proved that it was more than just a power running football team against OSU. QB Stave had a big night with 295 passing yards and 2 TD and WR Abbrederis proved he’s one of the top receiving threats in the Big Ten with 207 receiving yards. But it’s still the rushing attack that leads this team (6th nationally with 300.6 rush YPG). Standout running back Melvin Gordon is expected back from a knee injury this week and Wisconsin will try to see the success that OSU did against Northwestern last week (248 rush yards on 48 carries with 5 TD). The Badgers will try to rush the ball effectively to control the clock and keep it out of the hands of Northwestern’s spread offense. Much like Wisconsin, NU saw a lot of success passing the ball against Ohio State but had little results from the rushing game. QB’s Siemian & Colter combined to complete 25-of-30 passes for 347 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. Unfortunately, the Wildcats rushed for just 94 yards on 43 carries (2.2 YPC). Wisconsin’s attacking defense ranks 13th against the pass and 12th against the run and are well prepared for the Wildcats’ attack. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU & ATS the last two meetings in Madison by 40 PPG (70-23 win in 2010 last meeting). They’ve split the last 12 in the series 6-6 SU, but Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in those meetings. Wisconsin is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 home games as a double-digit favorite.

Penn State (+2½, 51) vs. Michigan

Penn State is off of a 20-point loss at Indiana. That was a huge game for the Hoosiers. They were off of a bye week and had never beaten PSU before. It was also a bit of a desperation game for IU as they were sitting at 2-2 with three tough conference games ahead of them. PSU had its chances but couldn’t convert them into points and Indiana exploded for 23 4th quarter points after leading 21-17 heading into the final 15 minutes. PSU freshman QB Hackenberg had 340 passing yards with 3 TD and 0 INT against the Hoosiers last week and seems to get better and better with each start. But it was the defense that was the undoing for PSU against IU. The Nittany Lions had difficulty stopping IU’s spread-offense attack. They allowed 336 passing yards and 150 rushing yards. Michigan operates under a more traditional pro-style offense but was pretty dynamic against Minnesota last week. They rode a number of big plays in the 2nd half en route to the 29-point victory over the Gophers. QB Gardner didn’t turn the ball over for the first time in his career as a starting QB but still has 10 turnovers to his name this season. Michigan’s defense will be a tough test for PSU’s Hackenberg. Michigan ranks 9th against the rush and 13th in total defense. Opposing QB’s have completed just 53.6% with 7 TD and 7 INT this season. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS following a loss under head coach Bill O’Brien. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a Big Ten road favorite.

Purdue (+14½, 57) vs. Nebraska

Purdue had an open week and coach Darrell Hazell aimed to get things right for this downward spiraling crew. Two weeks ago the Boilers suffered their third straight defeat of the season in an embarrassing 24-55 home loss to Northern Illinois. Their only win this season was an unimpressive six-point win over FCS Indiana State. The Rob Henry era at QB appears to be over as Purdue will now go with freshman Danny Etling under center. Etling completed 19-of-39 passes for 241 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT against in relief duty last week. It really can’t get any worst for this offense that ranks 119th in total offense and 114th in scoring offense. The defense hasn’t been quite as bad as the offense, but it’s still a big issue. Purdue ranks 79th in yards allowed this season and has allowed more than 31 points in four of five games. Purdue plays at home this week as a two-touchdown underdog to the visiting Huskers of Nebraska. Nebraska had its most promising defensive performance of the year last week against Illinois. This defense that had been prone to giving up big plays held Illinois to just 372 yards and two touchdowns in the 20-point victory. Nebraska’s biggest issue now may be that it has a quarterback controversy on its hands. Freshman Tommy Armstrong Jr. has delivered in place of the hobbled Taylor Martinez. Armstrong has completed 20-of-28 passes for 304 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT in two games while Martinez heals from a turf toe injury. Martinez still may not be able to return this weekend and if Armstrong has another strong outing in his place, the fire will only get hotter. Nebraska is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games as at least a two-touchdown road favorite. Purdue has been a two-touchdown home underdog just twice since 1998 and covered both of those games.

Michigan State (-9½, 52½) vs. Indiana

Michigan State’s offense has shown clear improvement over the past couple of weeks. QB Cook threw for 277 yards and two scores on the road against a tough Iowa defense last week. The running game churned out 135 yards on 37 carries and MSU was able to control the ball for +15 minutes more than the Hawkeyes. The defense, per usual, was dominant. Sparty held the Hawks to just 264 total yards and 13 first downs. A fairly formidable Iowa rush offense was held to just 23 yards on 16 carries. If the offense continues to develop, the Spartans will be a prime challenger for the Big Ten title; especially if the defense remains as dominant (1st nationally in total “D”). That defense faces a stiff test this week against a high-powered Indiana spread-attack. Indiana will have to try to avoid a big-game hangover after triumphing over Penn State for the first time in school history. The Hoosiers put up 486 yards and 44 points in Kevin Wilson’s biggest win as head coach. QB Nate Sudfeld (321 pass yards, 2 TDs) bounced back nicely from his struggles against Missouri and the defense was able to hold Penn State in check throughout the game. Indiana's offense ranks 9th in yards per game and 11th in points per game, but will face the top defense in the nation this Saturday. Indiana is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine meetings with Michigan State. They’re 0-4 SU & ATS in the last four trips to East Lansing, losing by an average of 34 points per game. Michigan State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games as a favorite of seven points or more.

BYE - Illinois

The Illini never really mounted a serious challenge against Nebraska last week. They fell behind 23-5 by halftime and the defense couldn’t come up with a timely stop of Nebraska. The Huskers ran for 335 yards on 50 carries and that prevented Illinois’ offense from ever getting into consistent rhythm. Illinois’ QB Scheelhaase remains a headache with just 136 passing yards (50%) with 0 TD and 1 INT and it seems the Illini will either get “great Scheelhaase” or “terrible Scheelhaase” with no in-between. Illinois is off this week before a critical home stretch against Wisconsin and Michigan State.

BYE - Minnesota

Minnesota dropped its second consecutive game by double digits in its 29-point blowout loss at Michigan last week. Head coach Jerry Kill again suffered a seizure early Saturday morning and was unable to be on the sideline for Minnesota. There will be a lot of attention paid to Kill and his health over the off week and questions will arise to if he should continue his coaching career. The Gophers offense has managed just 446 total yards and 20 points over the last two weeks. That includes just 83 rush yards per game on 2.4 YPC. The defense isn’t good enough to make up for the ineffectiveness of the offense and the Gophers appear mired in another losing season. Minnesota resumes play next Saturday at Northwestern.

BYE - Ohio State


Ohio State showed adversity last week when Northwestern held a late lead and appeared to have all the momentum on its side. Braxton Miller showed up late after a shaky performance early in the game and the rushing attack took the wind out of Northwestern’s sails on multiple occasions. OSU rushed for 248 yards on 48 carries with five rushing touchdowns. The Buckeyes allowed just 94 rushing yards, but the secondary was again exposed. The Bucks allowed 295 pass yards to Wisconsin two weeks ago and allowed Northwestern to complete 25-of-30 passes for 343 yards. OSU has this week off before its next game against Iowa. It appears now that the Bucks have smooth sailing until their rivalry game at Michigan to conclude the season on Nov. 30th.

BYE - Iowa

Like most opponents Michigan State plays, Iowa was held in check on offense last weekend. The Hawks gained just 264 total yards and 13 first downs in the 14-26 loss. Iowa’s power run game was held to just 23 yards on 16 carries and QB Rudock was forced to air it out 46 times to limited success (241 yards 2 TD & 2 INT). Iowa gained just 95 yards in the 2nd half and 64 of those yards came on the last drive of the game. Iowa has a week off before a critical matchup against Ohio State.

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Week 7 Injury Report
By Brian Edwards
Sportsmemo.com

Louisville WR DaVante Parker is ‘questionable’ tonight vs. Rutgers with a shoulder injury. Parker has 21 receptions for 375 yards and six TDs.

Rutgers LB Jamal Merrell will be back tonight after missing three games with a kidney ailment. Merrell was the Scarlet Knights’ leading returning tackler who had 7.5 stops for losses last year. RU running back Paul James will miss his second straight game at Louisville. James has run for 573 yards and six TDs this year.

South Carolina All-American DE and future first-round pick Jadeveon Clowney didn’t go in last week’s 35-28 win over Kentucky. For the third straight game, the Gamecocks burned their backers by giving up another backdoor cover. Clowney (bruised ribs) remains ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game at Arkansas. The air seems to have been cleared with Steve Spurrier and Clowney making comments this week about his commitment to the team that came in question when he told his coaches he couldn’t play against UK. On the complete flip side, Connor Shaw did play against the ‘Cats after hurting his shoulder the week before. Shaw showed no signs of pain in completing 17-of-20 throws for 262 yards and two TDs without an interception. Shaw also ran for 50 yards and one TD on nine carries. WR Shaq Roland will miss his third and final game of a suspension against the Razorbacks. Back-up RB Brandon Wilds (elbow) also remains ‘out.’

Oregon running back and special teams’ dynamo De’Anthony Thomas missed last week’s win at Colorado with a sprained ankle suffered two weeks ago. Thomas remains a question mark for Saturday at Washington and is probably closer to ‘doubtful.’

Michigan star LB Jake Ryan is poised to make his season debut Saturday at Penn State. Ryan tore his ACL in the spring. He garnered second-team All Big Ten honors last season when he had a team-high 88 tackles, 4.5 sacks and set a school record with five forced fumbles.

Arkansas center Travis Swanson, a second-team All-SEC selection last season, has been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. South Carolina after leaving last week’s 30-10 loss at Florida with a knee injury.

After missing three straight games with a sprained knee, Florida cornerback Marcus Roberson will return to the field Saturday at LSU.

There are three key LSU players to keep an eye on this week. WR Jarvis Landry practiced on a limited basis Wednesday and was expected to go full speed Thursday. Landry, who has made 42 catches for 616 yards and seven TDs in six games, injured his foot in a 59-26 win at Mississippi State. Craig Loston, a second-team All-SEC safety in 2012, injured his groin in a loss at Georgia two weeks ago and didn’t make the trip to Starkville. Loston has 19 tackles and an interception this season. LB Tahj Jones didn’t go Starkville either and is ‘questionable’ vs. Florida.

TCU defensive end DeVonte Fields will look back on 2013 as a lost season. Fields, the Big XII’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2012, only got on the field once this year. He was suspended for the first two games and broke his foot in a Week 3 loss at Texas Tech. Fields will undergo season-ending surgery and take a medical redshirt.

Utah State star QB Chuckie Keeton tore his ACL and MCL in the first half of last week’s 31-14 home loss to BYU. His season ends with 18 TD passes compared to only two interceptions. This is a devastating blow for the Aggies, who are seven-point home ‘dogs Saturday vs. Boise State. Utah State’s second-leading rusher Joe Hill (252 yards) is also out with a season-ending injury. The Aggies turn to Craig Harrison as their new starting QB. Harrison has completed 23-of-46 throws for 263 yards and two TDs without an interception.

Maryland isn’t going to make a decision on QB C.J. Brown until after practice on Thursday. Brown suffered a concussion in the first half of his team’s 63-0 loss at Florida St. He led the Terrapins to a 4-0 start both straight up and against the spread by throwing seven TD passes compared to only one interception. Brown also has six rushing TDs. When he left the game last week in Tallahassee, back-up Caleb Rowe completed 9-of-17 passes for 119 yards.

Georgia will be without RB Keith Marshall and WR Justin Scott-Wesley after both players sustained season-ending knee injuries in last week’s non-covering overtime win at Tennessee. WR Michael Bennett also suffered a knee injury and had surgery this week. There is hope that Bennett will be back this year, but he won’t be uniform when unbeaten Missouri arrives in Athens on Saturday. UGA’s punter is also a question mark after sustaining a concussion at UT.

Texas A&M will be without the services of starting nose tackle Kirby Ennis for the rest of 2013. The senior’s career for the Aggies is over after tearing his ACL in a win at Arkansas. On the bright side, Kevin Sumlin indicated this week that junior free safety Floyd Raven will be back Saturday at Ole Miss.

The status of Auburn QB Nick Marshall is up in the air for Saturday’s home game vs. Western Carolina. Marshall injured his knee in a crucial SEC West win over Ole Miss. Gus Malzahn told AL.com that a decision on a starting QB wouldn’t be made until Thursday or Friday. The Catamounts will come to The Plains as 44-point underdogs.

Virginia Tech cornerback Antone Exum is ‘doubtful’ vs. Pittsburgh due to a knee injury. Exum is getting close to making his season debut but will probably have to wait another two weeks since the Hokies have an open date looming. He was a second-team All-ACC selection in 2012 when he made five interceptions and had 16 passes broken up.

Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ after missing Wednesday’s practice. He had a walking boot on his left foot as the Cornhuskers prepared for Saturday’s Big Ten clash at Purdue.

Texas QB David Ash is ‘out’ of this year’s Red River Rivalry game. With two concussions already this year, you have to wonder if we’ll see him on the field again anytime soon.

Oregon State will get three offensive linemen back from injuries for Saturday’s game at Washington St. The Beavers are also stoked about the return of starting RB Storm Woods after he sat out a win over Colorado due to a concussion.

UCLA RB Jordon James is ‘doubtful’ vs. California after spraining his ankle in last Thursday’s win at Utah. James has rushed for a team-high 463 yards and five TDs. The Bears are dealing with injuries galore on their defense. Three starters for this unit have already been lost for the season, including Avery Sebastian, Chris McCain and Mustafa Jalil. Two other starters, DE Brennan Scarlett and CB Stefan McClure, are ‘out’ against the Bruins. Sonny Dykes’s team is 0-5 ATS.

Florida Atlantic has lost its best player in the secondary for the rest of the season. Keith Reaser tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s win over UAB. Reaser has started the last 30 games for the Owls.

Western Michigan WR Jaime Wilson broke his ankle this past summer. The Broncos had held out hope he would return to the field at some point in 2013, but his rehab hasn’t gone as well as hoped. Wilson, the 2012 MAC Freshman of the Year, will take a medical redshirt and retain three years of eligibility. Zach Terrell will get the starting nod under center for Western Michigan’s home game Saturday vs. Buffalo. Starting QB Tyler VanTubbergen (4-10 TD-INT ratio) injured his shoulder in last week’s loss to Kent State.

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NCAAF Week 7 Top 13 Games

Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten Oklahoma-Texas games; Sooners won last three by average score of 44-19, outgaining Texas 677-289 LY. Longhorns gave up 449+ yards in three of last four games- they've given up 751 rushing yards in two road games, losing 40-21 at BYU, surviving 31-30 at Iowa State. Since 2006, Texas is 3-5 vs spread as an underdog- they're 12-8 vs spread in last 20 road games, 0-2 this year. 5-0 Oklahoma beat Notre Dame/TCU last two weeks, now has this rivalry game- they are 5-2 as favorites in this rivalry game.

Michigan State won eight of last nine games with Indiana, covering six of last eight; Spartans won last four series games, three by 13+ points, as Hoosiers lost last four visits here by average score of 46-12 (0-4 spread). Indiana is 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as Big Dozen underdog; their last 11 road losses in league were by 14+ points. Spartans won last four conference home games, but all by 4 or less points- they're 4-6 vs spread in last ten. Indiana beat Penn State last week for first time ever; do they build on that game, or was it a fluke?

Road teams won last four Virginia-Maryland games; Cavaliers won last three visits here, in series where underdog is 5-3 vs spread. Terrapins are 2-6 in last eight ACC home games, 1-3 in last four as a favorite- this will be teams' last meeting before Terps bolt for Big Dozen next year. Cavs are 4-3 in last seven games as ACC road dog, but three of their last four ACC road losses are by 11+ points. Virginia is 1-3 vs I-A teams after it got upset at home by Ball State last week; they're scoring only 14.8 ppg in those four games. Maryland was 4-0 and #25 in country before going to Tallahassee last week and losing 63-0-- how do they respond here?

Texas A&M (-13.5) won 30-27 at Ole Miss LY, outgaining Rebels by only 481-464, but running ball for 290 yards. Aggies scored 42+ points in every game this year, gained 523+ TY in all four games that Manziel played all four quarters- they had 262 rushing yards, 261 passing in last game, a 45-33 win at Arkansas, its only road game so far. Ole Miss got blanked by Alabama, then lost 30-22 at Auburn, allowing 536 rushing yards in those two games- this is first of six straight road games for Ole Miss, which played its first four I-A games on road.

Stanford (-30) dozed its way past Army 34-20, then pounded Wazzu in Seattle 55-17 (-4) in its two road games this season; Cardinal is 13-3 in last 16 games as a road favorite, 9-2 under Shaw- they play UCLA next week in big game, better not overlook Utah squad that is 2-2 this season vs I-A teams, with all four games decided by seven or less points. Utes are 6-3 as home underdogs the last 10+ years. Utah was -3/-4 in TOs in its two losses this year, +3 in other games- they're 3-0 when giving up less than 34 points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 0-4 vs spread this year.

Georgia is very banged-up after winning consecutive epic games, 44-41 at home over LSU, then 34-31 at Tennessee; now unbeaten Missouri is between hedges, having scored 43.8 ppg in winning its first four games vs I-A opponents, winning road games at Indiana (45-28, -2), Vanderbilt (51-28, even). Dawgs are 4-7 in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year. Mizzou is 6-3 in last nine games as a road dog, but given the stiffas they've played this year, this is first time they've been a dog. SEC home favorites are 3-6 vs spread this season. Toledo is only team this year to hold Missouri under 239 rushing yards (172).

Home side won last six Baylor-Kansas State games; Bears lost last four in Little Apple, losing last visit 36-35, the other three by 28+ points in a series where underdogs covered five of last six meetings. First road game for Baylor, which scored 69+ points in first four games, against three bad teams and then West Virginia (73-42, could've been lot worse). K-State is struggling, with loss to I-AA North Dakota St, losses at Texas (31-21), Oklahoma State (33-29). Big X home underdogs are 3-1 vs spread this year. Baylor is 2-3 as a road favorite under Briles, who spent much of week denying rumors he'd go to Texas if Longhorns called him up.

Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 Florida-LSU games; Gators lost three of last four visits to LSU, with underdogs covering four of their last five visits here. Florida was held to less than 250 TY in last three games with Tigers, but covered three of four when a dog in series. LSU is 6-5 in last 11 series games overall; they're 1-2 as home favorites this year, even though they won all three games by 39-32-14 points. Tigers are 28-37-1 as home favorites under Miles. SEC home favorites are 3-6 vs the spread this season. Florida covered its last four games as an underdog.

Notes on rest of the games......

-- Virginia Tech covered once in its last seven games as a home favorite; only twice in their last eight ACC home games have Hokies won by more than a FG.
-- Miami OH (-23) beat UMass 27-16 LY. This year, MAC favorites are 11-1 against spread, 4-1 at home.
-- Clemson covered six of last seven tries as an ACC home favorite. BC is 0-5 vs spread in last five games as an ACC road underdog. Eagles lost 36-14/35-7 in last two visits to Death Valley.
-- Western Michigan is 0-6, allowed average of 308.8 rushing yards per game over last four weeks. Over last decade, Buffalo is 1-0-1 as favorite on the road.

-- Central Michigan won four of last five games with Ohio; underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in last four meetings. Chippewas are already 0-3 as a road underdog this season.
-- MAC road underdogs are 11-14 vs spread out of conference. Army is 3-6 as a home favorite under Ellerson.
-- Underdogs covered six of last eight USF-UConn games, 4-0 vs spread at UConn. Last six series games were decided by 7 or less points.
-- Average total in last three Navy-Duke games: 75.3. ACC home faves are 9-6 vs spread out of conference. Duke covered its last five games as a home favorite.

-- Kent State lost 45-43/33-14 in last two visits to Ball State. Home side won last four series games; underdogs covered four of last six meetings.
-- Bowling Green lost 42-10 at Indiana in only game this year vs a BCS opponent. Falcon coach Clawson is familiar with SEC from his days as an assistant at Tennessee. SEC non-conference home favorites are 9-8.
-- Akron lost its last three visits to Northern Illinois by 42-14 average; Huskies covered five of last seven series games. Zips lost 43-3 at home last week, are 1-2 as road underdogs this season.
-- Favorites covered seven of last nine Iowa State-Texas Tech contests; State won last visit here, lost previous three by 25-31-12 points. Tech is 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite.

-- Rice (-2.5) beat UTSA 34-14 LY, running ball for 301 yards, C-USA home teams are 3-9 vs spread in league play, 2-4 if a home underdog.
-- New Mexico won five of last seven visits to Wyoming, which is 3-6 as a series favorite since 1999. Home teams are 3-8 vs spread in MW tilts, 2-3 when a home favorite.
-- ACC non-conference underdogs are 6-5 vs spread, 4-2 on road. BYU (+2) held Georgia Tech to 157 TY in easy 41-17 win in Atlanta LY.
-- First road game for Nebraska, which allowed 25.4 ppg in its first five games. Cornhuskers are 9-7-1 as road favorites under Pelini. Favorites covered six of first eight Big Dozen games.

-- Colorado gave up 101 points in losing last two games, by 44-17/57-16 scores. Pac-12 conference favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 5-3 at home.
-- Cal is 6-2-1 vs spread last nine times they were an underdog to UCLA team that won its first four games, with three wins by 20+ points. P-12 home favorites are 5-3 against the spread.
-- Third straight road game for East Carolina squad that won five in row, nine of last ten games vs Tulane- ECU won last two visits to Superdome by 28-23/28-24 scores. This is fifth year in row Pirates are double digit favorite against Tulane.
-- Alabama won last four games with Kentucky by average score: 32-17, but teams haven't met since '09. Wildcats are 1-4, but haven't lost game this season by more than 17 points.

-- Mountain West home teams are 3-8 vs spread, 2-3 if favored. San Jose State beat Colorado State last two years, 38-31/40-20. Spartans won at Hawai'i last week, are 2-1 on foreign soil this season.
-- Idaho is 1-5 this season with four losses by 32+ points. Sun Belt teams are 0-4 as non-conference favorites this season.
-- Since '08, NC State is 19-6-1 vs spread in game following a loss. ACC conference home teams are 11-4 vs spread, 7-1 if favored.
-- FIU won 24-23 at winless Southern Miss last week for first win after losing first four games by comnbined score of 187-23. UAB allowed an average of 47.3 ppg in losing its road games by 3-39-28 points.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M at Ole Miss
By Brian Edwards
Sportsmemo.com

Texas A&M at Mississippi
Saturday, 5:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Texas A&M -5 O/U 75.5
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -6 O/U 76
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Texas A&M -5.5
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Mississippi

Ole Miss will try to avoid a three-game losing streak when it takes on Texas A&M in Oxford. As of Friday morning, most books had the Aggies installed as six-point favorites with the total in the 75-76 range. For first-half wagers, Kevin Sumlin’s squad is favored by three (at a -120 price) with a total of 38. Gamblers can back the Rebels on the money line for a +190 return (risk $100 to win $190).

Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has had two weeks to prep for this spot. Before the open date, the Aggies went into Fayetteville and captured a 45-33 win over Arkansas in a back-and-forth affair. They failed to cover the number as 13.5-point road favorites.

Johnny Manziel threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against the Razorbacks. He also had 59 rushing yards.

For the season, last year’s Heisman Trophy winner has completed 71.4 percent of his throws for 1,489 yards with a 14-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Manziel has rushed for 314 yards and three TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

His favorite target is third-year sophomore WR Mike Evans, who has made 28 catches for 691 yards and five TDs. Running back Ben Malena has rushed for 303 yards and seven TDs, averaging 5.3 YPC.

Texas A&M is third in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring with a 49.2 points-per-game average. But the Aggies have been dreadful on defense, giving up 30.8 ppg. They rank 114th nationally in total defense, surrendering 476.8 yards per contest.

The defense got even softer this week when starting nose tackle Kirby Ennis was lost to a season-ending injury. A true freshman will replace Ennis in the starting lineup. On the bright side, safety Floyd Raven is expected to return from an injury.

Ole Miss (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) won its first three games, including a pair of impressive road wins over Vanderbilt and Texas. But the Rebels got humbled in a 25-0 loss at Alabama two weeks ago. Then on The Plains last Saturday, Hugh Freeze’s team fell behind early and came up on the short end of a 30-22 decision at Auburn.

Ole Miss failed to cover against the Crimson Tide and the Tigers. The Rebels were favored by three at AU last weekend. As a home underdog on Freeze’s watch thus far, they own a 1-1 spread record.

Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards against Auburn but a pair of interceptions proved costly. The junior QB has a 6-2 TD-INT ratio for the season. Wallace has rushed for 117 yards and three TDs.

Running back Jeff Scott has rushed for a team-high 424 yards and two TDs, averaging 8.7 YPC. He also had a punt return for a score in the 44-23 win at Texas.

Wallace has an outstanding set of WRs led by junior Donte Moncrief, who will likely be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. Moncrief has 23 receptions for 355 yards and four TDs.

As a road favorite under Sumlin, Texas A&M has 3-2 spread record.

These schools met at this same venue last year in a wild contest that came down to the wire. Texas A&M escaped Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with a 30-27 victory, but the Rebels got the money as 12-point home underdogs. Manziel’s 20-yard scoring strike to Ryan Swope proved to be the game winner with 1:46 remaining.

Manziel threw for only 191 yards and was picked off twice. He ran for 129 yards and one score.

Wallace threw for 305 yards and one TD and also had a rushing score. However, he was intercepted twice. Scott ran for 108 yards and one TD.

The over has cashed at a 4-1 overall clip for the Aggies, hitting in its lone road assignment. The under is 3-2 overall for the Rebels, 1-0 in its lone home game.

Ole Miss is starving for a victory and even though we’re in mid-October, this is just its second home game. Therefore, I believe the Rebels are going to be up for this game. Texas A&M is in for a 60-minute battle and I think the home underdog is the play.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

College Football Betting Preview: Baylor at Kansas State
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com

Baylor at Kansas State
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Baylor -10.5 O/U 72
CRIS Current: Baylor -17.5 O/U 73.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baylor -10
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Kansas State

Considering all the time that went into discussing this game in both the forum and podcast, I felt obligated to do this write-up. College football has changed so much over the last few years that profiles like this – WHO is laying WHAT at WHERE?? – no longer gain much attention. It’s the age of sophisticated offenses, sharp power ratings, and betting markets that would rather lay -30 with a dominant team than try to "hope for the best" with and outclassed foe despite the value. You can't accurately power rate what Baylor has done to this point simply because it is such rarified air. We've seen it with Oregon but the Ducks are a proven commodity whereas Baylor is not. The Bears have been covering pointspreads since Art Briles walked onto campus but in this price range, on the road, bettors have nothing to go on. Nearly a year ago, Baylor was laying -17 at home to Kansas and catching +12 to Kansas State (to their credit, they covered both games with ease). It is established that this year's group looks "special" but we're talking about a massive adjustment.

The big problem I have is Baylor has yet to play a real football game. They've played four home tilts against four opponents that would struggle to reach bowl eligibility with a 14-game schedule. The Bears would have been better served to play four green vs. white scrimmages. Note also that the three FBS wins were unfavorable spots for the opponents. Buffalo hung tough with Ohio State and a week later was forced to play in the late August Texas heat. Monroe was off a big win at Wake Forest – another back-to-back road spot for a mid-major. And West Virginia was off a big upset win against top-25 ranked Oklahoma State and had a bye week following its trip to Waco. Baylor wins those games by margin regardless of the situation but in all three instances, there was an outclassed foe that was up against it before the game even started.

I also have to mention Baylor's track record on the road which doesn't exactly include a lot of games laying double-digits. In 2011, with the Heisman Trophy winner under center and five total NFL draft picks (two first rounders) – a previously unheard of output in Waco – Baylor went 1-3 SU on the highway with the lone win coming by one point at Kansas. Last year, with just as much talent (if not more), the Bears went on the highway five times and won ONCE; at UL-Monroe by five points. This year's version obviously looks better thus far and I'm not in the business of worrying too much about what took place in the past but laying -17.5 on the road in a conference game against a competitive team is no joke no matter how good you look dicing up the Buffalos of the world at home.

So I just railed Baylor as much as I could and some of it was without question nitpicking. The Bears are a very good team and I've been particularly impressed with their play in the trenches. But not one thing went wrong thanks to the venue and those four cupcake opponents. And I don't care who you are, going on the road, especially for the first time with a bulls eye on your back, has a tendency to produce some hiccups.

I almost forgot about Baylor's opponent, Kansas State. The Wildcats are no question down from last season considering all that they lost during the offseason. I played Texas back in Week 4 with the thinking that KSU would struggle with all those new faces in their first road trip – three turnovers was the difference. Similar situation at Oklahoma State – statistically even with the exception of three turnovers. And when you are a young team like that, turnovers on the road can be expected. But in both instances, K-State showed its talent was on par with both the Longhorns and Cowboys. Do they have the speed and offensive firepower to trade scores with Baylor? No. But the one thing bettors consistently receive when backing K-State is a well-coached team that comes prepared. And in all reality, that is all I am asking for. I'm not asking K-State to win – hell, they can be down 14-0 early and it still wouldn't be the end of the world. I'm not betting K-State just to be contrarian but rather because of what I perceive to be value. If it wins, great. If not, I'll adjust and handicap Baylor's next game accordingly.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Afternoon Action
By Covers.com

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5, 64.5)

The Tigers, new to the SEC as of 2012, are making their first trip to Georgia after getting blown out 41-20 at home by the Bulldogs last season. The 2013 squad already matched last season’s win total and owns four rushers, including quarterback James Franklin, with at least 278 yards and an average of 5.2 yards per carry or better.

The Bulldogs can put up points with the best of them but are hurting at several key positions on offense and had three players leave last week’s game with knee injuries.  The Bulldogs already played three teams ranked in the top-10 and beat two - South Carolina and LSU - but had their toughest test last week at the Volunteers, when running back Keith Marshall and wide receivers Michael Bennett and Justin Scott-Wesley were all knocked out early.

LINE: UGA opened -9.5 and moved to -7.5. Total opened 63.5 and moved to 64.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds SW 1 mph.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Bulldogs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Bulldogs last seven games overall.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 57.5)

The Sooners won the last two games by a combined 80 points – 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last season – and Saturday’s winner will at least share the Big 12 lead. Oklahoma ranks 17th in rushing offense (246 per game) and both senior running back Brennan Clay (450 yards) and junior quarterback Blake Bell (175 yards) could rack up the yards against a Texas defense that allows 248.4 per outing – 117th out of 123 FBS teams.

Texas not only has lost three straight games to No. 10 Oklahoma, but the Longhorns haven’t even been competitive in the last two meetings heading into Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Longhorns have been abysmal on defense and are still reeling from the September loss of linebacker Jordan Hicks to a torn Achilles’ tendon. The poor rushing defense has been the biggest issue despite recent strong play by sophomore defensive tackle Malcom Brown.

LINE: OU opened -12.5 and moved to -13.5. Total opened 56.5 and moved to 57.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 70s, 40% chance of thunderstorms, winds S 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5, 42.5)

The Panthers were off last week, providing an opportunity to devise a plan to crack a Virginia Tech defense ranked fifth nationally at 263.7 yards allowed per contest. The Panthers feature the conference’s top receiving duo in senior Devin Street (111.3 yards per game) and freshman Tyler Boyd (106.3).

Virginia Tech leads the nation in interceptions (13) and has picked off opposing quarterbacks at least two times in each of its past five games. The division-leading Hokies have won their first two conference contests and five in a row overall since losing their season opener to top-ranked Alabama.

LINE: VT opened -9.5 and moved to -8.5. Total opened 43 and moved to 42.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 60s, 25% chance of rain, winds NE 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (+14, 57)

Huskers coach Bo Pelini has indicated that QB Taylor Martinez will step back into the starting role “when he’s ready to go”, but Tommy Armstrong Jr. has made a compelling case with two very efficient performances. The freshman from Texas is 20-for-28 for 304 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers in Martinez’s absence while also sharing time with senior Ron Kellogg III.

First-year coach Darrell Hazell named freshman Danny Etling the starting quarterback during the Boilermakers’ bye week after he came on in relief and sparked Purdue’s attack - ranked 117th nationally in total offense - with 241 yards passing and two touchdowns in just over two quarters of play against Northern Illinois. Hazell also suspended redshirt freshman receivers B.J. Knauf and Jordon Woods, who were arrested Monday on charges of theft.

LINE: Nebraska opened -13.5 and moved to -14. Total steady at 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, 40% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Boilermakers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Over is 14-3-1 in Boilermakers' last 18 home games.

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-14, 56.5)

Iowa State is one of four teams in the nation still perfect in the red zone while the Red Raiders are tied for third in red-zone defense, allowing two touchdowns and four field goals in 11 trips. The Cyclones have scored nine touchdowns and four field goals in 13 trips inside the 20-yard line.

Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury got good news as his No. 21 Red Raiders prepare for Saturday's visit from Iowa State. Freshman walk-on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has thrown for 1,488 yards and eight touchdowns in five starts, won't be lost for the season after leaving last week's win at Kansas with a knee injury.

LINE: TTU moved from -16 to -14. Total steady at 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 60s, clear skies, winds NE 4 mph.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Cyclones are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks (+5, 51)

While DE Jadeveon Clowney's "injury" situation clouds the defensive picture, the offense continues to roll. It has generated 2,383 yards of through the first five games, most for the program at this point of the season since at least 1962. Connor Shaw has thrown seven touchdowns without an interception and completed 17-of-20 passes against Kentucky while contributing 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Mike Davis had 106 rushing yards and is ranked 12th nationally with 614 this season.

Arkansas continued a season-long trend of starting fast when it gained a 7-0 lead at the Gators last Saturday, but it was dominated from that point in losing its fifth straight SEC game, a slide that dates to a loss at South Carolina last November. The Razorbacks have outscored opponents 54-24 in the first quarter but have been outscored 117-104 thereafter. Brandon Allen has competed just 34-of-77 passes and has three interceptions in his last two games since returning from a shoulder injury.

LINE: South Carolina moved from -6.5 to -5. Total steady at 51.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, 43% chance of thundershowers, winds W 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Gamecocks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-7, 48)

The Gators' offense has flourished since Tyler Murphy took over under center, as the junior's 209.4 quarterback rating against Arkansas was the highest for a Florida quarterback in an SEC game since Rex Grossman in 2001. The return of running back Matt Jones also has bolstered the offense with Jones (322 yards, 2 TDs) and Mack Brown (284 yards, 3 TDs) leading a strong ground game.

The Tigers have won five straight and 27 of 28 at home, winning their three home games this year by an average of 28.3 points. The Gators have won only once in their last four trips to Baton Rouge but they spoiled the Tigers' title hopes with a 14-6 home win last year.

LINE: LSU opened -3 and moved to -7. Total moved from 47.5 to 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds S 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Louisiana State.
* Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 58)

The Wildcats use a two-quarterback system, seamlessly transitioning between the pass-oriented game of Trevor Siemian and the running threat provided by Kain Colter. Colter is on the verge of eclipsing 2,000 yards both passing (1,945) and rushing (1,944) in his career to go along with 676 receiving yards.

The Badgers aren’t quite the offensive and defensive juggernauts they were in years past but are still dominant on the ground, where they are averaging over 300 yards. Wisconsin RB Gordon (knee), TE Jacob Peterson and WR Kenzel Doe (hamstring) all are expected to play.

LINE: Wisconsin steady at -10. Total moved from 57 to 58.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 30% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Wisconsin.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Wisconsin.

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats (+17, 74)

The Wildcats have employed two quarterbacks — Jake Waters and Daniel Sams — this season, with Sams (team-leading 323 rushing yards, four touchdowns) throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble against Oklahoma State while Waters (65.4 completion rate) has thrown four TDs and five interceptions. Kansas State leads the series 7-3 after Baylor's 52-24 victory in 2012. The teams have alternated victories in the last six meetings.

The Bears lead the country in yards per play at 9.6 with running back Lache Seastrunk (589 yards, eight touchdowns) averaging an eye-popping 11.1 yards on 53 carries. Baylor is just as powerful through the air as quarterback Bryce Petty (72.8 percent completion rate, 10 TDs, one interception) has plenty of options to choose from, including Antwan Goodley (25.7 yards per reception, five TDs) and Tevin Reese (23.6, four).

LINE: Baylor steady at -17. Total moved from 72 to 74.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 60s, clear skies, winds N 6 mph.

TRENDS:


* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers (-24.5, 61.5)

Clemson’s task won’t be easy against the improving Eagles and talented running back Andre Williams, who leads the nation in rushing yards per game. Williams has enjoyed a tremendous senior season with 768 yards, highlighted by 263 and five touchdowns against Army in the 48-27 victory last week. Clemson owns an 11-9-2 edge in the all-time series and has won four of the last five meetings, including 45-31 last year in Boston.

Clemson senior quarterback Tajh Boyd recorded 650 passing yards combined in wins the last two years versus Boston College and leads a Tigers’ offense that averages 44.2 points. Clemson has 19 different players on the roster with at least one reception — 11 with a touchdown — and Boyd spread the ball around to 10 receivers against the Orange. Boyd’s first look is often Sammy Watkins, who has a team-high 481 receiving yards.

LINE: Clemson moved from -24 to -24.5. Total moved steady at 61.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s, clear skies, winds NNE 1 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Clemson.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.

Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+14, 76)

The status of Oregon junior running back De’Anthony Thomas (ankle) remains unknown, and Thomas stated Wednesday that he needs to be 100 percent to play. Powerful Oregon has won its first five games by an average of 47.4 points and is attempting to notch its 18th straight road victory - tops in the nation.

The rise of the Huskies – particularly on the offensive side – has increased the anticipation for a renewal of the rivalry that recently has been dominated by the Ducks. Washington is averaging 37.4 points and 557 yards (fifth nationally). The Huskies have a 58.3 percent success rate on third-down conversions, tied for third-best nationally.

LINE: Oregon moved from -13.5 to -14. Total moved from 75.5 to 76.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 50s, 41% chance of rain, winds N 4 mph.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Washington.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Evening Action
By Covers.com

Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5, 51)

The Wolverines received good news this week when linebacker Jake Ryan was medically cleared to resume play, prompting coach Brady Hoke to say he could "potentially" make an appearance against Penn State. The Wolverines had high hopes for senior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint after he rushed for 100 yards or more in four of the last six games two years ago, but he has surpassed that mark just once in his last 15 contests.

The Nittany Lions welcomed back an important part of their defense last weekend. Mike Hull, a senior linebacker, suffered a right knee injury in the season opener against Syracuse but returned to make 10 tackles versus Indiana.  Allen Robinson, a 6-3, 210-pound junior wide receiver who had 12 catches for 173 yards and two scores in a 44-24 loss to Indiana last Saturday.

LINE: Michigan opened -3 and moved to -2.5 Total steady at 51.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 60s, 31% chance of rain, winds ENE 2 mph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Penn State.
* Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Wolverines are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 conference games.

Akron Zips at Northern Illinois Huskies (-23.5, 62)

NIU junior Cameron Stingily, who rushed for 266 yards and two touchdowns against Kent State, will play despite a recent arrest stemming from a failure to appear in court. Jordan Lynch has gone over 1,000 yards passing and 500 yards rushing through five games, and the senior has 12 touchdowns against only four interceptions for Northern Illinois.

The Zips have lost four straight, including a near upset of then-ranked No. 11 Michigan. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Pohl has thrown an interception in all but one game this season and has been sacked 11 times. The Zips' defense has six interceptions and is tied for second-best in the MAC with 16 sacks.

LINE: NIU opened -21.5 and moved to -23.5. Total moved from 62.5 to 62.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 60s, 27% chance of early thundershowers, winds WSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 9-0 in Zips' last nine conference games.

Stanford Cardinal at Utah Utes (+8, 55)

The Cardinal's success begins with quarterback Kevin Hogan, who is 10-0 in his career as a starter and has thrown 11 touchdowns against four interceptions this season. Stanford has a balanced offensive attack led by running back Tyler Gaffney, who has a team-leading 462 yards and six TDs.

The Utes must get more consistent play from sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson, who threw six interceptions against UCLA.Wilson's top target is Dres Anderson, who leads the team with 24 catches, 510 yards and four receiving touchdowns. Sophomore James Poole has a team-leading 330 yards on the ground while Wilson has rushed for 248 and a team-high five TDs.

LINE: Stanford opened -10 and moved to -8. Total moved from 54.5 to 55.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 50s, 6% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Utes' last 10 games overall.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats (+27, 51.5)

Quarterback A.J. McCarron has never been more accurate than in his last four games, connecting on 77.7 percent of his throws for 938 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions. The Tide have won 16 straight road games and nine straight overall. Alabama has held four of five opponents this season under 10 points.

The Wildcats rank third in the SEC and 24th nationally in pass defense, while their Air Raid offense is averaging 388.8 yards per game and rushing for 5.1 yards per carry. Kentucky showed its big-play ability by scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter at South Carolina, and the team already has six plays of at least 40 yards.

LINE: Alabama moved from -26.5 to -27. Total moved from 52 to 51.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds SSW 1 mph.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
* Wildcats are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide's last four road games.

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels (+6, 76)

Texas A&M’s beleaguered defense turned in an encouraging outing against Arkansas, but the unit figures to be tested by an Ole Miss offense that averaged 38 points in its first three wins. Texas A&M has scored first in 17 of 18 games under coach Kevin Sumlin. The Aggies have used a balanced offense to score at least 40 points in each of their first five games for the first time in school history.

Junior quarterback Bo Wallace threw for a season-high 336 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week against Auburn, but the Rebels will need a more balanced attack in order to keep Manziel off the field. Ole Miss boasts the SEC’s No. 2 pass defense, but the Rebels’ defensive line has been hit by a wave of injuries in recent weeks.

LINE: Texas A&M opened -5.5 and move to -6. Total opened 75 and moved to 76.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 13% chance of rain, winds SW 1 mph.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Aggies' last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.

California Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins (-25, 73.5)

Injuries have decimated the Golden Bears' defense, with seven projected starters missing last week’s loss. California could use a quick start after allowing a touchdown on the opposing team’s first drive in each of its first five games, forcing Goff (364.2 yards passing per game) into catch-up mode soon after the opening kickoff.

he Bruins were fairly healthy until the Utah game, when tackle Torian White suffered a season-ending right leg injury and running back Jordon James exited with an ankle injury that could force him to miss Saturday's contest. James’ absence would create more opportunities for Steven Manfro, Malcolm Jones and Paul Perkins, who rushed for 92 yards against the Utes.

LINE: UCLA opened -24 and moved to -25. Total opened 73 and moved to 73.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 60s, clear skies, winds SSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
* Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 7 of College Football
By Covers.com

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The UConn Huskies will have a new coach patrolling the sidelines. T.J. Weist takes over as interim head coach following the dismissal of Paul Pasqualoni after a 41-12 loss to Buffalo. The Huskies are 4.5-point home faves against USF Saturday.

- The Missouri Tigers make their first trip to Athens, Georgia to face the Bulldogs. The two programs faced off last season at Missouri with Georgia prevailing 41-20. The Bulldogs are 7.5-point home faves.

- The Michigan State Spartans get a home game versus Big Ten rival Indiana, but the Spartans are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Michigan State is a 9.5-point home fave Saturday.

- The Red River Rivalry has been a shootout of late. The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are 4-1 O/U in their last five meetings and have combined to average 62.6 points per game in that stretch. Saturday's total is currently 57.5.

- The Virginia Tech Hokies boast the fifth-best defense in the country, allowing just 263.7 yards per game.

- The Pitt Panthers are at Virginia Tech to test that stingy defense. Pitt features the ACC's best WR tandem in Devin Street (111.3 ypg) and Tyler Boyd (106.3 ypg). The Hokies are 8.5-point home faves.

- Nebraska travels to face the Purdue Boilermakers and their porous defense. Purdue ranks 110th in the country allowing 36.6 points per game and is a 16.5-point home dog.

- The TCU Horned Frogs are 60-11 overall under head coach Gary Patterson at Amon G. Carter Stadium. TCU is favored by 24.5 at home versus Kansas Saturday.

- The Houston Cougars are one of three schools (Baylor, UCLA) with perfect 4-0 ATS records. Only Oregon at 5-0 ATS is better.

- Army is second last in the country with 429 passing yards on the season. Only New Mexico (380 yards) has fewer. The Black Knights are 7.5-point home faves against Eastern Michigan.

- Iowa State is one of four schools in the country (along with Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama) with a road win against a ranked opponent in each of the past three seasons. The Cyclones are 14-point dogs at No. 21 Texas Tech.

- The Arkansas Razorbacks have defeated South Carolina the previous three meetings at Razorback Stadium. They are also 3-0 ATS in those three home games. The Razorbacks are 5-point home dogs Saturday.

- The Duke Blue Devils are 3-0 ATS in their past three meetings with Navy. Duke is favored by a field goal at home Saturday.

- The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Ohio Bobcats. The Bobcats are 18.5-point home faves.

- Things haven't well for Western Michigan and its backers against fellow MAC opponents. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.

- Massachusetts! Miami (Ohio)! It's the two lowest scoring teams in the country! The Red Hawks rank second-last in the country averaging 8.8 ppg. The Minutemen are last with 7.0 ppg. Saturday's total is 44.5.

- Home team is 4-0 in the previous four meetings between Ball State and Kent State. Ball State is a 14.5-point home fave Saturday.

- LSU and Troy lead the over/under standings with 6-0 O/U records. Troy visits Georgia State Saturday with a total of 63.5.

- Baylor leads the nation in scoring averaging 70.5 ppg. The Bears are 17-point road faves at Kansas State and the total is 73.5.

- The Florida Gators have cashed in for backers when they play at LSU. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings in Baton Rouge. Florida is a 7-point dog Saturday.

- Maryland was throttled 63-0 by Florida State one week ago - matching its largest margin of defeat in 20 years. The Terps are favored by a TD at home with Virginia in town.

- Dating back to last season, Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games. The Eagles are 24-point road dogs at No. 4 Clemson Saturday.

- If anything, give Syracuse credit for holding onto the ball. The Orange are tied with 16 programs which have just one fumble lost this season.

- New Mexico ranks 100 in the country by allowing 35.6 points per game. The Lobos face a Wyoming programs which averages 37.6 ppg. Saturday's total is currently 69.5.

- The bye week isn't kind to San Jose State. The Spartans are 3-15-1 ATS in their previous 19 games following the week off. They are 3.5-point road dogs at Colorado State.

- The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Badgers are 10-point home faves.

- Dating back to 2003, the Under is 5-1 in the previous six meetings between East Carolina and Tulane. Saturday's total is currently 53.

- The high-flying Oregon Ducks are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Washington Huskies. Oregon is a 13-point fave at Washington Saturday afternoon.

- The Rice Owls seem to travel well. They are 4-0 ATS in the previous four road games and are 1.5-point road dogs at UTSA.

- The Over is 8-2 in Marshall's last 10 conference games. The Herd are at Florida Atlantic with a total of 56 Saturday.

- The Michigan Wolverines are one of the top consensus picks at 73 percent despite being just 2-5 ATS in their previous seven meetings with Penn State. The Wolverines are 2.5-point road faves.

- The top Covers consensus pick of the weekend? Well that would be Northern Illinois (78 percent), who is a 23.5-point home fave with Akron in town.

- Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is 10-0 in his career as a starter. He'll lead the Cardinal offense into Utah against the Utes as 7.5-point road faves.

- The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have rushed for 324 yards or more in four of their five games. They'll be tested against BYU and the No. 12-ranked rushing defense in the country, allowing just 132.6 ypg.

- The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are big 24.5-point home faves against Idaho Saturday.

- Middle Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with North Texas. The Blue Raiders are 6.5-point road dogs Saturday.

- The Kentucky Wildcats are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 SEC games. The Cats are 27-point home dogs against No. 1 Alabama.

- The Texas State Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. They are 6.5-point home faves against UL Monroe Saturday.

- Bowling Green hasn’t beaten an SEC school since defeating Kentucky in 1985. It will try to end that drought at Mississippi State as 9.5-point road dogs.

- The Under is 4-0 in Hawaii's last four road games. The Rainbow Warriors are at UNLV with a total of 55 Saturday.

- The Over is 8-1 in UTEP's last nine games overall. The Miners host Tulsa with a total of 64.

- Boise State is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Utah State. The Broncos are 6.5-point road faves.

- The Texas A&M run defense allows 214.8 ypg - 109th in the nation. In last season's matchup, Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott ran 21 times for 108 yards and a TD.

- The Colorado Buffaloes have lost 10-straight conference games. The Buffs are at Arizona State as 25.5-point road underdogs.

- The UCLA Bruins are last out of 123 FBS teams in penalties with an average of 10.75 per game.

- The road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers are 2-point road underdogs.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Pac-12 has another full week of conference matchups, as the out-of-conference schedule isn't totally done, but will be a rarity from this point forward.

The highlight of this weekend's schedule will be Oregon-Washington, kicking off in Seattle at 1pm PT. The Huskies had a tough game last week in Stanford, and now have to play another elite team for a second straight week. Can they get it right this time around and throw a monkey wrench into the national championship picture?

Southern California kicked off the week's schedule with a win against Arizona. It started out looking like a blowout, but Rich Rodriguez's Wildcats came back to make it interesting, falling 38-31. USC bettors who felt good about their pick had heart failure near the end as Arizona nearly stormed all the way back.

Oregon at Washington

The Ducks have been unflappable, pun totally intended, going 5-0 ATS in their past five matchups against teams with a winning record. Oregon is also 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road games, 13-3 ATS in their past 16 overall, and 15-5-2 ATS in their past 22 Pac-12 tilts. For Washington, they have been pretty solid themselves. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their past six, 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against teams with a winning road record, and an impressive 14-3 ATS in their past 17 home contests. We'll get a good feel on what each of these teams are made of when the dust settles Saturday afternoon. Is Oregon THAT good, or will they finally be in a fight for their lives? If so, how will they respond? Is Washington able to beat on the cupcakes, but a cupcake themselves when it comes to play a contender? We'll see.
   
Stanford at Utah

Obviously there isn't a lot of history between these two teams, but one thing they have in common - the 'over' comes in frequently when they're on the field. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Stanford's past four, and 5-0 in their past five Pac-12 battles. The over is also 15-6-1 in their past 22 road games against a team with a winning home mark. For Utah, the 'over' in their past nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, and 5-2 in their past seven Pac-12 contests. The 'over' is also 7-3 in their past 10 overall. Some will likely want to go all-in on Stanford with the spread, too, as they are 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 Pac-12 games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning record, while Utah is 1-4 ATS in their past five against a winning team, and 0-5 ATS in their past five Pac-12 tilts.

Colorado at Arizona State

While the sample size in this series is small, you have to like Arizona State thanks to some key numbers. First off, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Colorado is 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings. And Arizona State is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, including a win last weekend in Dallas against Notre Dame, racking up another signature win in a schedule that has already featured the Irish, Stanford and Wisconsin. Needless to say, the Sun Devils are battle tested. The Buffaloes have been much better this season than their forgettable 2012 campaign, but they're starting to show some symptoms of last season now that the competition is getting more intense. CU is just 7-20 ATS in their past 27 conference games, and 7-20 ATS in their past 27 against winning teams. They have also covered just 16 of their past 52 away from Boulder.

Oregon State at Washington State

The most important to know for this game is that the Beavers get RB Storm Woods (concussion) back from injury this week. He has missed time due to a concussion suffered in the Utah game earlier this season. With him out of the lineup, RB Terron Ward did an adequate job, but the offense was missing something. It will be whole again this week on the Palouse. QB Sean Mannion and WR Brandin Cooks might be the most impressive pass-catch combo in the nation. Washington State might not be totally back, but at least head coach Mike Leach has them more competitive than the past few years. The Cougs are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record. A win against Oregon State would be another brick in the wall as they build back toward being a contender. The 'over' has cashed in four of the past five meetings in Pullman.

California at UCLA

Cal has been abysmal this season, and there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of hope as they head down to UCLA for what essentially will be another whipping. The Bears are a 25-point dog, and since they are 3-15 ATS in their past 18, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road contests, a cover might not be likely. They're also 0-7 ATS in their past seven conference tilts. UCLA is rest, coming off a bye, and they are 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven conference battles. The Bruins are also 9-4 ATS in their past 13 home games. This one has been a close shave in the past, but these two teams are far apart this season. This could be a laugher.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

FLORIDA GATORS (4-1) at LSU TIGERS (5-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: LSU -7 & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -7 & 48.5

Both looking to avoid a critical second loss on the season, SEC powerhouses No. 10 LSU and No. 17 Florida will square off in Baton Rouge on Saturday afternoon.

Florida is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS this season, but it has been a new season since Tyler Murphy took over for an injured Jeff Driskel at QB, with the Gators winning SU and ATS in both games since the switch. LSU is 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS, easily covering last week they scored 59 points while crushing Mississippi State by 33 points. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 45.5 PPG this season (9th in nation), though it may be difficult to replicate that against the Gators defense that ranks fourth in FBS with 12.2 PPG allowed. In an ugly slugfest last year, these two teams combined for only 437 yards of offense in a 14-6 Florida victory, with the Tigers entering the game as 1.5-point road favorites. The Gators have also historically had no trouble going to Baton Rouge, going 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings there. However, the last time LSU hosted in this series in 2011, The Tigers walked away with a 41-11 victory.

Junior QB Tyler Murphy has been a savior for this Florida team under center after Driskel's early struggles. Murphy has completed 72.2% of his passes for 530 yards in 2 1/2 games, throwing for five touchdowns with just one interception. Driskel had thrown three interceptions and only two touchdowns before suffering his season-ending broken tibia. Murphy has three main receiving threats in WRs Solomon Patton (19 catches for 348 yards, 4 TD), Trey Burton (23 catches for 282 yards, 1 TD) and Quinton Dunbar (18 catches for 274 yards). And on the ground, Will Muschamp splits the carries evenly between RBs Matt Jones (75 carries for 322 yards, 4.3 YPC, 2 TD) and Mack Brown (76 carries for 284 yards, 3.7 YPC, 3 TD). It's also been key that Murphy can use his legs, adding 24 carries for 135 yards (5.6 YPC) and two touchdowns to his passing total. Florida's stingy defense is strong against both the run and pass, limiting opponents to 2.8 YPC and 4.6 yards per pass attempt, with opponents completing just 46.4% of their passes.

The high-octane LSU offense is led by the steady play of QB Zach Mettenberger, who is completing 68.2% of his passes for 1,738 yards and 11.1 YPA this season. He has 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions, effectively using his 6-foot-5 frame to control the flow of the offense. He relies mostly on two receivers with more than 600 yards, while nobody else has more than 79. WR Odell Beckham (35 catches for 686 yards, 6 TD) leads the team in yardage while WR Jarvis Landry (42 catches for 616 yards, 7 TD) paces the team in receptions and scores. The offense isn't one-dimensional, however, with RB Jeremy Hill racking up 7.5 YPC on the ground on 79 touches for 593 yards and nine touchdowns. LSU's passing defense is giving up 6.9 yards per attempt while the front seven is allowing just 4.3 YPC on the ground.

OREGON DUCKS (5-0) at WASHINGTON HUSKIES (4-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -14.5 & 77
Opening Line & Total: Ducks -14 & 77

No. 2 Oregon will look to continue its hot start under first-year coach Mark Helfrich as it travels to Seattle to take on No. 16 Washington; a team that will be looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking 31-28 loss at No. 5 Stanford.

When these two teams met up in Eugene last year, things got ugly in a hurry as the Ducks gained 497 yards on offense as they cruised to a 52-21 victory. Last week, without top RB De'Anthony Thomas (ankle), the Oregon offense didn't miss a beat, as it piled up 755 yards in a 57-16 win at Colorado. The Ducks have been very impressive on the road in the past three years, winning their past 13 games (12-1 ATS) outside of Eugene. However, this could be the most difficult of those road contests, as they face an angry Washington team. The Huskies lost by three points in Palo Alto, but outgained the Cardinal by more than 200 yards and had a fourth-down catch get overturned that wound up being the difference. Washington has looked outstanding this season, in large part to the play of QB Keith Price. He has done a great job of not turning the ball over and shredding defenses with his pinpoint accuracy. Something will have to give in this game, as the Huskies have covered the spread in each of their past eight home games, and could shake up the Pac-12 in a big way with a victory in this game. However, Oregon is 9-0 SU (8-0-1 ATS) in the past nine meetings with Washington.
   
When Chip Kelly left, many people wondered if the country's most explosive offense had left with him. However, sophomore QB Marcus Mariota (14 pass TD, 0 INT, 7 rush TD) showed that not only would the Ducks have a great offense this season, it may be even better than it was last year. Through the first five games, the Ducks rank 2nd in the nation in scoring (59.2 PPG) and total offense (630.4 YPG), including 335.8 rushing YPG (3rd in FBS). They have done an outstanding job of getting up on their opponents early in the game, outscoring the opposition 111-24 in the first quarter. With the way the Ducks can put up huge points, these early leads have been demoralizing for their opponents. Byron Marshall filled in nicely for RB De'Anthony Thomas (338 rush yards, 8.0 YPC, 6 TD this year), rushing for 122 yards in the game, giving him 448 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC this year. Thomas, who rushed for 75 yards and touchdown in the win over the Huskies last year, is listed as questionable to return on Saturday. When Mariota (4 TD passes last year versus Washington) looks to throw, he mostly targets WRs Josh Huff (445 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Bralon Addison (345 rec. yards, 4 TD). As potent as the offense has been, it has been the play of the defense that has made the Ducks look like legitimate championship contenders this season. They currently rank 2nd in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 11.8 points per game. Put that into perspective, the Oregon offense has averaged 22.2 PPG in the first quarter, nearly double of what the defense allows per game. The Ducks defense has held opponents to just 4.1 yards per play, including 3.1 yards per carry this year. Junior DB Terrance Mitchell was huge for Oregon last week, as he had two interceptions in a dominating defensive performance. The Ducks now have 14 takeaways this season and an excellent +9 turnover margin. No disrespect to the Buffaloes, but the offense that the Ducks are going to be facing is much more potent than the one the Oregon defense saw last Saturday.

The Huskies offense was outstanding last week, putting up 489 total yards offense against Stanford, regarded as one of the best defenses in all of the country. However, the special teams really hurt the Huskies, allowing the Cardinal to take back the opening kickoff for a touchdown. QB Keith Price (1,394 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 11 TD, 3 INT) was especially outstanding last week, throwing for 350 yards and two touchdowns. Now he needs to redeem himself after a dreadful performance in Eugene last year when he completed 19-of-31 passes for 145 yards (4.7 YPA), 0 TD and 2 INT. Star RB Bishop Sankey (732 rushing yards, 4th in nation; 8 total TD) helped complement the passing attack against Stanford with 125 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. His performance will be key to Washington controlling the clock and keeping Oregon's offense off the field, and Sankey showed that he could gain yards on this Ducks defense with 104 rushing yards and 2 TD on 25 carries in last year's meeting. The Washington defense has played well all season (14.8 PPG allowed, 14th in nation), especially last week when it held talented Stanford QB Kevin Hogan to just 100 yards passing, including an interception by DB Marcus Peters. The Huskies are holding opponents to just 287 total YPG and a meager 3.9 yards per play. While both of these defenses have been very good this season, expect both of these offenses to put a lot of points on the board in an exciting and very close game.

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (4-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (3-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas A&M -6.5 & 76
Opening Line & Total Aggies -6.5 & 76

No. 9 Texas A&M prepares for a high-scoring affair when it heads to Oxford as the road favorite over Ole Miss in a key SEC game.

Both of these teams are 2-3 ATS to start the year with Texas A&M covering in two of its past three games. The Aggies' dynamic offense averages 49.2 PPG, the fourth most in FBS, but the defense has be an issue, giving up 30.8 PPG (87th in nation). Ole Miss is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, as it was shut out by Alabama 25-0 and lost 30-22 as a two-point favorite to Auburn last week. The Rebels are giving up 25.2 PPG while scoring only 27.2 (85th in nation), but have played four of their first five games this year on the road. Last season, the Rebels were one of the few teams to actually figure out how to contain QB Johnny Manziel, holding A&M to a relatively meager 481 yards of offense and forcing six turnovers. Manziel needed two late TDs in that meeting to give the Aggies the win. In each of the four games in which Manziel has played completely this season, the Aggies have surpassed 40 points and 520 yards of total offense.

The Aggies rank sixth in FBS with 365 passing yards per game, and most of that credit goes to Manziel, who is completing 71.4% of his passes for 1,489 yards (10.6 YPA) this year. In 140 attempts he has only four interceptions while finding the end zone 14 times through the air. He has added three rushing touchdowns as the team's leading ball carrier with 314 yards on 48 attempts (6.5 YPC). In last year's win over Ole Miss, Manziel threw more picks (two) than touchdowns (one), but he still had 191 passing yards and 142 rushing yards. Joining him on the ground are RBs Ben Malena (57 carries for 303 yards, 7 TD) and Tra Carson (41 carries for 229 yards, 4 TD), who are effective weapons that give Manziel a much-needed break once in a while. Malena rumbled for 142 yards (7.9 YPC) and a touchdown last year versus the Rebels. Through the air, nine different Aggies have receiving touchdowns this season, but WR Mike Evans (28 catches for 691 yards, 5 TD) is by far Manziel's favorite target. He also has been able to find WRs Derel Walker (19 catches for 264 yards) and Malcome Kennedy (23 catches for 242 yards, 4 TD) when needed. Where A&M needs to step up its game is on the other side of the ball, giving up a whopping 6.1 YPC, which is 0.6 YPC more than they accumulate themselves. It doesn't get better against the pass where they surrender 7.1 yards per attempt.

Ole Miss junior QB Bo Wallace is nowhere near the type of weapon Manziel is, completing only 59.0% of his passes for 1,143 yards (6.9 YPA), 6 TD and 2 INT. During his team's two-game losing skid, Wallace has completed just 53.2% of his passes for 495 yards (6.3 YPA), 2 TD and 2 INT. He also didn't have a rushing score in either of those games while adding three of those in the first three games. In last year's loss to A&M, Wallace totaled 326 yards and two scores, but also threw two picks, including one returned for a touchdown just before halftime. RB Jeff Scott is the team's most dangerous weapon, averaging 8.7 YPC on 49 carries for 424 yards 2 TD. He'll have to carry the load against this weak Aggies defense and help control the clock by keeping the ball out of Manziel's hands. He was able to that last year with 108 yards on 21 carries (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown when he faced the Aggies. Wallace's top receiving options this year are WRs Donte Moncrief (23 catches for 355 yards, 4 TD) and Laquon Treadwell (24 catches for 250 yards). The Ole Miss defense has been better its its counterpart, but the numbers aren't great, giving up 4.4 YPC and 6.4 YPA. Notably, through the air, opponents are completing a whopping 67% of their passes, which must make Manziel happy going into this game.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (5-0) at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (3-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Michigan -3 & 51
Opening Line & Total: Wolverines -3 & 51

While it has not always been pretty for No. 18 Michigan this season, the team remains unbeaten as it travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State Saturday afternoon.

The Wolverines are a team still searching to find a true identity as we near the halfway point of the college football season. Junior QB Devin Gardner as been arguably the most polarizing player in college football this season. Against Notre Dame, he had moments where he looked to be a darkhorse Heisman trophy candidate with 376 total yards and 5 TD. However, in games against UConn and Akron in which Michigan failed to cover the spread, he threw 5 INT and only 2 TD. However, the team took a step in the right direction last Saturday by taking down Minnesota, 42-13. Penn State has had problems of its own, coming off a 20-point thrashing at the hands of underdog Indiana last Saturday. Last season, nobody had many expectations for the Nittany Lions, and they surprised a lot of people en route to an eight-win season. Heading into Saturday's game, they are the underdog, a situation in which they thrived in last season (3-1-1 ATS as an underdog). Penn State has won three straight meetings in this series, all by double-digits, but this will be the first game played between the two teams since 2010. The Nittany Lions are 10-2 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons, but Wolverines head coach Brady Hoke is 14-4 ATS (78%) when facing a good team (60% to 75% win pct.).

While there is a lot of talent on the Wolverines football team, they are only going to be able to go as far as QB Devin Gardner takes them. He is a terrific athlete that can get out and make plays with his feet, but too many times he tries to squeeze the ball into a double-coverage, leading to his 8 TD and 8 INT this year. He needs to just stay within the offense, as RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (397 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 7 TD) is capable of carrying the ball 25-to-30 times a game. While he isn't blessed with elite speed, Toussaint is a very shift runner with the strength to run people over. When Gardner does drop back, he has talented receivers such as WRs Jeremy Gallon (367 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Devin Funchess (296 rec. yards, 2 TD) who tallied 151 receiving yards on seven catches last week. The Wolverines defense has been stellar this season, giving up just 19.4 points per game (27th in nation). DB Blake Countess showed big-play ability on the defensive side of the ball, taking an interception 72 yards for a touchdown in the win against the Golden Gophers. Look for the Wolverines defense (90 rush YPG, 3.1 YPC allowed) to really crank up the pressure (9 takeaways this year) and get after the Nittany Lions, as this is when Penn State has struggled the most on offense.

The win by Indiana last week marked its first-ever victory over Penn State in 17 matchups. The defense really struggled, giving up 486 yards, with 336 coming through the air. Freshman QB Christian Hackenberg (8 TD, 4 INT this year) had another good game for the Nittany Lions, throwing for 340 yards and three touchdowns, while not throwing a pick. WR Allen Robinson has been his favorite target all season with 621 yards and 5 TD, and he was stellar against Indiana, catching 12 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson is a terrific receiver that has big-play ability, but is also fearless about going over the middle. This is always a heated matchup when these two teams play, and look for it to be the same again this season. The key will be which quarterback is able to withstand the pressure from the opposing defense. Penn State allows 20.4 PPG (31st in FBS) and like Michigan, is tough against the run (111 rushing YPG, 3.2 YPC). However, the Nittany Lions need to force more turnovers, having totaled just three takeaways in the past four weeks combined. This could be a huge step for the PSU program, as Michigan tries to compete for a Big Ten title, but the Nittany Lions are going to be extra motivated after last week's embarrassing loss.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

ACC Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Atlantic Coast Conference has one more weekend of marginal games before the much-anticipated heavyweight title fight between Florida State and Clemson in Death Valley. This week fans will have to settle for Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech and Boston College-Clemson to whet their whistle.

I'll be in attendance at the Navy-Duke game, and I am very curious to see how the triple-option of Navy can move the ball against the sieve-like defense of the Duke Blue Devils. It will be a game of contrasting styles. Enjoy the weekend!

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech

Did you know Pitt has covered in each of the past six meetings with Virginia Tech, including last season's 35-17 win? The Panthers have been hard to figure. They have won three games in a row straight-up, but they have alternated wins and losses against the spread (ATS) through their first four weeks. If you believe in crazy trends like that, they will fail to cover in Blacksburg. And the Panthers averaged 53.5 points per game (ppg) in two games against New Mexico and Duke from Sept. 14-21 before winning a 14-3 defensive battle against Virginia Sept. 28 before their bye. After starting the season 0-3-1 ATS, Virginia Tech has covered each of its past two, and they have rattled off five straight wins since their opening game loss against Alabama. The 'under' has also cashed in four of their past five.
   
Navy at Duke

If the trends hold up, this baby is going 'over'. In each of the past six meetings between Duke and Navy, the 'over' has cashed in each matchup. These two sides have met 39 previous times despite not being conference foes, and Navy leads the all-time series 20-14-5, with Duke winners in each of the past two. Navy looks to change all of that, and they are hopeful to get RB Geoffrey Whiteside (ankle) back after he missed the past two games. He'll help that old-school attack, led by dual-threat QB Keenan Reynolds. Navy's defense has actually been stout over the past three, but that was also against dregs Delaware, Western Kentucky and Air Force, not exactly the who's who of college football. When they faced Indiana Sept. 7, a team with a similar offensive attack to Duke, the Middies were involved in a 41-35 barn burner. Expect more of the same.

Virginia at Maryland

Virginia slinks up to College Park after getting manhandled at home by Ball State last week, 48-27. Meanwhile, Maryland left CP feeling good about itself before last week's game, going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in their first four games. They return home, though, after an embarrassing 63-0 dismantling at the hands of Florida State. Both teams are on the rebound, and history says Virginia is the play here. However, hold everything. While UVA is 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings with UMD, and the road team has cashed in each of the past four meetings, remember the Cavaliers are just 4-14-1 ATS in their past 19 overall, 2-8 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven away from Scott Stadium. Plus, the Wahoos are an awful 8-22 ATS in their past 30 against teams with a winning overall mark. The Terps have covered their past four at home, and they are 6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. And Maryland is 27-12 ATS in their past 39 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Syracuse at North Carolina State

An amazing fact from last week's Syracuse-Clemson game: the Orange completed ZERO passes to their wide receivers. That tells you a little bit about how Syracuse's offense is in disarray right now. However, despite last week's non-cover, Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in their past nine games overall. Just the same, they're 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games, including a non-cover at Northwestern earlier in the season. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. The Wolfpack were surprised in Wake Forest, although the numbers clearly pointed to the Deacs as the play there. NC State returns home where they are much better against the number, going 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 at Carter-Finley Stadium. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games (last week being the loss), and a whopping 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a losing road record.

Boston College at Clemson

As always, with Clemson, check the total first. This week it is set at 61.5 points, which seems a tad high at first glance. The under is 19-7-1 in Boston College's past 27 ACC games, 38-16-1 in their past 55 road games, and 37-16-1 in their past 54 overall. The under is also 20-6-1 in their past 27 against a team with a winning record. For all of Clemson's offense lately, the under is actually 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is also 22-8 in Clemson's past 30 games in the month of October, for whatever that's worth. And the under is 4-0 in the past four meetings between these two sides in Death Valley, including a game I attended in person. That day it was a 36-14 Clemson romp, and expect a similar spread, and total. As far as the spread, BC is no pushover, but that 24-point number could easily be met. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Clemson, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven road games.

Georgia Tech at Brigham Young

Georgia Tech looked to have their game in Miami covered, but a turn of events led to a Hurricanes cover and ATS loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. However, Ga. Tech is still 8-3 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on grass. And they have covered four of their past five following a straight-up loss. For BYU, they're a tough read. This team lost outright to Virginia, trounced Texas and Utah State, yet lost at home to Utah straight-up while entering as a seven-point favorite. They're 3-2 SU and ATS, and the only certainty is their defense, with the 'under' cashing in three straight, and four of their five. The 'under' has also come through in three of their past four for the Yellow Jackets.

Byes: Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Florida at LSU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The stakes will be extremely high Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge where LSU and Florida will collide in an SEC showdown. The loser will essentially get knocked out of the national-title picture, while the winner will join Georgia with the nation’s most impressive resume for one-loss teams.

Most books have had LSU (5-1 straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread) favored by seven all week. On Friday morning, some spots reduced the number to 6.5. The total is 48. Gamblers can take the Gators on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240). For first-half wagers, LSU is a four-point favorite and the total is 24.

Florida (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) has won three straight games since suffering its only loss by a 21-16 count at Miami. The Gators are 3-0 in SEC play and have covered the spread in back-to-back outings.

Will Muschamp’s team beat Arkansas 30-10 last week as a 13.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 40 combined points hit right on the total for a push.

The Razorbacks had a first-and-goal opportunity in the final minute that could’ve changed the result for bets on both the side and total. However, UF’s defense got a fourth-down stop to secure the spread cover.

Florida junior quarterback Tyler Murphy enjoyed a third consecutive solid performance. He completed 16-of-22 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Solomon Patton had six receptions for 124 yards and two TDs, while Loucheiz Purifoy had a 42-yard interception return for a TD.

Murphy is third in the SEC in passing efficiency. He has a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has also run for a pair of scores.

Florida is second in the nation in total defense, allowing just 217 yards per game. The Gators are giving up only 12.2 points per game, but LSU undoubtedly has the most prolific offense they have seen so far.

Likewise, LSU will face the best defense it has seen in 2013. Zach Mettenberger is making himself a lot of money this year with his NFL stock rising with every performance. The senior signal caller has connected on 68.2 percent of his throws for 1,738 yards with a 15/2 TD-INT ratio.

Mettenberger has two of the SEC’s best wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. Beckham is tops in the SEC in all-purpose yards and third in receiving yards. He has made 35 receptions for 686 yards and six TDs. Landry has 42 catches for 616 yards and an SEC-best seven TDs, but he might not be at full speed vs. UF after being limited at practice this week due to a foot injury sustained at Mississippi St.

After missing a season-opening win over TCU due to a suspension, sophomore RB Jeremy Hill has been gashing opposing defenses. Hill has 594 rushing yards and nine TDs, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

LSU bounced back from a 44-41 loss at Georgia to smash Mississippi St. 59-26 as a seven-point road favorite. The Tigers broke open a tight game (31-26) in the fourth quarter by scoring 28 unanswered points.

Mettenberger threw for 340 yards and a pair of TDs, while Hill ran for 157 yards and two scores on just 16 carries. Kenny Hilliard added three rushing TDs and Beckham had nine receptions for 179 yards and two TDs.

Two defensive starters, safety Craig Loston and LB Tajh Jones, didn’t make the trip to Starkville due to injuries. Loston, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2012, is expected to start but Jones remains a game-time decision. UF is expected to get starting CB Marcus Roberson back after he missed three consecutive games.

The ‘under’ is 3-1-1 overall for the Gators, 2-0 in their road assignments. The ‘over’ has hit in all six of LSU’s games and this is the lowest total it had seen.

Florida has covered the spread in five of its last six trips to Tiger Stadium. The non-cover came two years ago when UF quarterbacks John Brantley and Jeff Driskel got injured in a loss to Alabama the previous week. True freshman Jacoby Brissett took his first career snaps in Baton Rouge and result was predictable, as LSU cruised to a 44-11 victory.

When these SEC rivals met at The Swamp in Gainesville last year, Florida captured a 14-6 win as a three-point home underdog. Mettenberger completed only 11-of-25 passes for 158 yards and was intercepted once. UF held LSU to just 1.7 yards per carry.

During Will Muschamp’s tenure, UF has compiled a 3-2 spread record in five games as a road underdog. On Les Miles’s watch, LSU has posted a 20-31-1 ATS mark in 52 games as a home favorite.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Florida has held 12 straight SEC opponents to 20 points or fewer.

East Carolina RB Vintavious Cooper (concussion) is ‘doubtful’ Saturday at Tulane. Cooper has rushed for a team-high 382 yards and two TDs. He has also hauled in 22 catches for 186 yards.

Since 2004, Northwestern owns a 12-4 spread record in 16 games as a road underdog. Since losing (but covering) to Missouri in the 2008 Alamo Bowl, the Wildcats have covered the number at a 6-2 ATS clip in eight games as double-digit underdogs. Coming off of last week’s crushing home loss (and crazy wrong-side winner) to Ohio St., Pat Fitzgerald’s team is a 10-point underdog at Wisconsin.

Boise St. is 20-8 ATS as a road favorite since 2008. The Broncos are favored by 6.5 at Utah St., which won’t have star QB Chuckie Keeton for the rest of the season after he tore his ACL in a 31-14 home loss to BYU last week.

The line for Georgia vs. Missouri moved down to seven late Friday afternoon. The Bulldogs were favored by 8.5 early in the week. They will be without their two best RBs unless Todd Gurley (‘doubtful’) makes a remarkable recovery in the next 18 hours and three of their top four wide receivers.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 12

Line Moves - Week 7
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 6 Recap

Favorites: 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU)
Underdogs: N/A
Totals: 1-0

We only documented eight line moves last weeks and if you followed the early shifts, you would’ve produced a 6-2 record against the spread. Totals improved to 5-1 over the past two weeks.

Week 7 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 7 last Sunday morning. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.

Favorites

Michigan State vs. Indiana
Open: Spartans -6
Friday: Spartans -10

Massachusetts vs. Miami, Ohio
Open: Minutemen -2 ½
Friday: Minutemen -5 ½

Buffalo at Western Michigan
Open: Bulls -7 ½
Friday: Bulls -11

Ohio vs. Central Michigan
Open: -10 ½
Friday: -18

Ball State vs. Kent State
Open: Cardinals -11
Friday: Cardinals -14

Wyoming vs. New Mexico
Open: Cowboys -10
Friday: Cowboys -1

Baylor at Kansas State
Open: Bears -10 ½
Friday: Bears -17

Colorado State vs. San Jose State
Open: PK
Friday: Rams -3½

BYU vs. Georgia Tech
Open: Cougars -4
Friday: Cougars -7

Arkansas State vs. Idaho
Open: Red Wolves -24
Friday: Red Wolves -27

Underdogs

Utah vs. Stanford
Open: Utes +10
Friday: Utes +7

Missouri at Georgia
Open: Tigers +11
Friday: Tigers +7

Florida Atlantic vs. Marshall
Open: Owls +13
Friday: Owls +10

Week 7 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Monday. Only one game saw significant movement and it’s listed below.

Texas A&M at Mississippi
Open: 75½
Friday: 79

Tulsa at UTEP
Open: 60
Friday: 65

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