Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Joe Gavazzi

Mississippi -2.5

Must credit the job done by 1st year Auburn HC Malzahn in lifting the Tigers from 3-9 SU LY to a 3-1 ATS start. Offensive fortunes (Malzahn's specialty) have improved dramatically. The defense, however, has failed to follow suit. A stop unit that has been a sieve in recent seasons is still allowing 440 YPG this season. That is a bad omen against an angry Ole Miss team who was embarrassed on National TV last week in their step up game vs. No. 1 Alabama. The Rebels had their chances to get back in the game but failed to score twice in the red zone. When the dust cleared, it was Crimson Tide 25-0 with a 254-46 overland advantage. This week look for a major bounce by the Rebels who have already recorded road wins at Vandy and Texas this season. HC Freeze remains on a 22-7 ATS run including 7-2 ATS away of late and 5-1 ATS/loss LY. Rebels bounceback big at the expense of the Auburn defense.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Jeff Clement

Arkansas vs. Florida
Play: Arkansas +12

Arkansas has Brandon Allen at quarterback who has passed for 670 yards and 8 TD's and the running game is led by Freshman Alex Collins with 597 yards rushing and 3 TD's. Florida lost quarterback Jeff Driskell for the season so Charles Murphy has replaced him and has thrown for only 290 yards and 2 TD's. Arkansas averages 29.2 point per game but the Florida defense has only allowed 12.8 per game so it will be tough to score at The Swamp in Florida. I predict that Arkansas will score enough to cover the 12 points and give the Gators a scare in a Florida 27-23 win. Florida is 6-10 ATS last 3 seasons at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

AC Dinero

NC State vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest +8.5

Wake Forest is better than they have shown this season. Even though NC St has gotten off to a nice start this season, they are still playing with a back up QB, and laying over a TD is a tall task. The Demon Deacon defense has been respectable. They just need to start picking up the running game. Even though the statistics all point to NC St, they aren't good enough to be laying 8.5 points on the road in conference. Eventually, Wake will start producing. I believe it will be this Saturday and this game is a TD either way.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Nelly

Tulane + over North Texas

In a third straight road game last week Tulane delivered a nice win over Louisiana-Monroe and the Wave have already surpassed last season's record with three wins. North Texas is playing its first game as a Conference USA squad and they have had two weeks to prepare after hanging with Georgia respectably in the previous game. The recent numbers are ugly for Tulane at home as well as for North Texas on the road, but Tulane appears to have the more complete squad as one of the more improved teams in the nation. The statistics are much better for Tulane and the competitive effort for North Texas against Georgia featured huge breaks and came in a really bad spot on the schedule for the Bulldogs. Tulane is starting to play well despite the tough road gauntlet and back at home the Wave can deliver a nice win while holding home underdog value.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Scott Spreitzer

Maryland at Florida St
Prediction: Maryland

The Terps enter with a 4-0 SU/ATS mark, having flown a tad under the radar as far as the point-spread has been concerned. We have been on the Terps already this season and we'll play them again as a double-digit underdog. What a difference a year makes! HC Randy Edsall just needed some healthy bodies to turn around the Terrapin program. QB C.J. Brown has led his offensive attack to nearly 500 yards per game and they're equally efficient running or passing the football. While the offense is flourishing, the defense is also playing great football. Maryland allows just 266 total yards per game and they're just as stingy against the pass as they are the run. This will be the best defense Florida State will have faced so far this season and it's not even close. The athleticism of the Terps' stop unit may be a little bit of a shock for FSU frosh QB Jameis Winston who has faced the porous and out-manned defenses of Pittsburgh, Nevada (just gave up 51 points to SDSU on Friday), Bethune Cookman, and Boston College. I expect Maryland to keep this one much closer than the point-spread would indicate. The Terps are on a 6-0 ATS run overall, and I'm backing Maryland plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Kyle Hunter

Washington vs. Stanford    
Play: Over 52½

The Washington Huskies and Stanford Cardinal are both much better offensively than they were last year. Washington will play uptempo all game, and they should be able to move it through the air. Stanford is strong on the ground, and Kevin Hogan is much improved at the quarterback spot. This total is set too low for the way this offenses are playing this year. Take the over here.

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Doug Upstone

Pittsburgh Penguins -1½ +138

The Penguins came flying out of the gate Thursday with a shutout win over the Devils. Marc Andre Fleury looked great in goal after a rough ending to the 2012-2013 season. The Penguins may be without Neal and Letang, but the overall depth of this team will carry them to victory. I like a play on the Pens (puck line) Saturday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Don Best Consensus

North Carolina State at Wake Forest
Pick: North Carolina State

This ACC contest sends (3-1) NC State to battle (2-3) Wake Forest. NC State has looked good this season, with their only loss coming 14-26 to #3 Clemson. NCST are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. NCST are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. NC State is scoring 31.2ppg while only allowing 18.8. Wake Forest, on the other hand, has looked terrible. They average 18.4ppg and allow 23.8. The offense has no quick-strike ability, dinking and dunking down the field in predictable fashion. They cannot run the ball at all, averaging 109 yards per game, 107th in FBS. NC State averages 207 rushing ypg, good for 40th in FBS. WAKE are 0-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Lay the touchdown with the Wolfpack.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Bob Balfe

Tampa Bay Rays -115

We saw Price dominate in the Texas game earlier this week. Great pitchers step up this time of year. Tampa is in a hole and will rely on him to hold serve and take them back to Tampa with a chance to take control of this series. It all boils down to Price. He is as good as they get and I think he will throw another gem. Take Tampa.

Rice +3

We have picked on Tulsa all year and have cashed in betting against them.  This defense is young and not very good and their quarterback is going through a rough patch.  This game comes down to running and defense.  Rice has a great rushing offense and Tulsa can’t stop anything.  Tulsa has yet to really get their running games going and the Rice Defense is pretty good.  Tulsa is turning the ball over at an alarming rate, are struggling with injury at wide receiver and just have too many issues to fix this season.  Take Rice.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Tony Karpinski

Ohio State vs. Northwestern    
Play: Ohio State -6½

In the battle of the undefeated, and a true BIG10 war, Ohio State comes prepared to win. With SR QB, Kenny Guiton hitting 68% os his passes for 13 TDs, they keep teams on the move. OSU has to be cautious to not be overlooking this game knowing that Iowa and PSU are coming up. I am expecting OSU to assault the air early on, and follow through with their strapping running game. Through their games, OSU characteristically throttles Northwestern, take into effect, OSU is 3-1-1 ATS on the season. Northwestern is a massive beast to tame on the ground, ranking 18th in the country in rushing yards, behind speed back, Treyvon Green and his 6.9 YPC and 5 TDs. Northwestern does get sloppy when it comes to passing defense, which is one of the worst, giving up 300+ in the air. Their offense is capable of being explosive, and they will put up points, but their defense can be quelled. NWestern is good, but they haven't faced a team like OSU and I think they'll be overmatched here on Saturday night National TV.

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Rocketman

Minnesota @ Michigan
Play: Michigan -18.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers travel to Michigan to take on the Wolverines on Saturday afternoon. Minnesota is 4-1 SU overall this year while Michigan comes in with a 4-0 SU record on the season. Michigan has a solid home field going 17-0 SU the past 3 years. Michigan is averaging 38 points per game overall this year and 42.7 points per game at home this season. This is Minnesota's first real test of the season so don't let their 4-1 early start scare you off this game. Michigan won 35-13 last year in Minnesota and 58-0 two years ago at home against this Minnesota team. Minnesota is 2-6 ATS last 8 games after a bye week. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Michigan is 6-1 ATS last 7 games after a bye week. Michigan is 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games after an ATS loss. Favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings overall in this series and Minnesota is 0-5 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. It's time for Michigan to come out with an easy win. We'll recommend a small play on Michigan today!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Chip Chirimbes

Georgia vs. Tennessee    
Play: Tennessee +11½

After playing three teams ranked in the Top-10 the Georgia Bulldogs might think they can take a breath and breathe easy facing the Volunteers. The Bulldogs are still flying high after their thrilling 44-41 (non-cover) win over LSU. Small letdown will be enough for Tennessee to get the money.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

SPORTS WAGERS

Georgia Tech +6½ over MIAMI

Miami’s four wins have come against Florida Atlantic, Savannah St and South Florida. Their other win came by five points at home against a Florida team that is heading for a seriously disappointing season. Miami makes a lot of mistakes and is much too self-destructive to be spotting significant points to a team with as much experience as Georgia Tech.

Tech is coming off that ugly showing last Thursday against Virginia Tech in a game they lost 17-10 but the Jackets are better than they showed Thursday and have been very strong in bounce-back spots under Paul Johnson. You combine Miami’s 4-0 record and #14 ranking against a Tech team that the entire country saw couldn’t move five yards on Va Tech and the result is an inflated number here. Al Golden has 44 wins in his career but has won only one conference game by more than a touchdown against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. Georgia is 3-1 and they’re going to have a winning record when it’s all said and done. Miami’s defense has not been exposed yet but it’s a young and untested bunch that Paul Johnson’s offense figures to exploit and have plenty of success against. We like the Jackets outright but these 6½ points being offered at SIA are too juicy to pass up on.

Arkansas +12½ over FLORIDA

The Gators were headed for a disappointing season even before the injuries began to mount. Now the wounded list includes quarterback Jeff Driskel and defensive stalwart Dominique Easley and things have gone from bad to worse. This is a Florida team that scored a mere 24 points last week at Kentucky despite just one drive ending with a turnover, punt or failed fourth-down conversion. The Gators offense has been completely out of sync and things don’t figure to get better here.

The Hogs are coming off a 45-33 loss to Texas A&M and after seeing that high octane outfit operate, they’ll be much more comfortable seeing this one. When we back rushing-oriented underdogs like Arkansas, we hope that they will shorten the game and limit possessions. In this case, the favorite is going to do that for us. The Gators have LSU on deck next week and we highly doubt that they are going to be at their best this week in what should be a close game throughout. Arkansas comes to play every week so the idea of the Gators laying double digits to any team with a pulse is too good to pass up on.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Winnipeg +16 over CALGARY

Indeed the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are a complete dumpster fire that appears to be getting worse every week instead of better. One would think that a group of professional athletes would tire of getting humiliated week after week but that has not been the case with Winnipeg. After losing nine of 10 and blowing a huge lead against Edmonton, Winnipeg had a chance to restore some pride with the Lions coming to town last week. Winnipeg lost 53-17 and turned the ball over six times in the process. How can that be? How can a team that was losing every week because of turnovers, turn the ball over six more times? Well, the Blue Bombers have hit rock bottom and we have to trust that these 16 points being offered will humiliate them more than any score they’ve suffered this season. It’s embarrassing to the franchise, to the owners, to the coaches and to the proud city of Winnipeg to be offered 16 points in an eight-team league. That number 16 might just be hanging on a huge sign in the locker room of the Blue Bombers as a reminder to their humiliating play over the course of this season. This Winnipeg team is not void of skilled players. They have as many skilled players on defense as any team in the CFL and they have offensive weapons too. It’s now time to stop the humiliation and put forth an effort that will allow them to walk out of this stadium tonight, win or lose, with their heads up.

We like that it’s a road game for the Blue Bombers and we like that it’s against a Calgary team that has won five of six and that has a serious showdown on deck with the B.C. Lions next week. The Stampeders are a team that is looking to get healthy for the stretch run and it would not surprise us one bit to see this host get caught up in believing that all they have to do to win this game is show up. This is too many points to be spotting a Winnipeg team that has to be sick of hearing it. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

SPORTS WAGERS

OAKLAND +115 over Detroit

The Tigers took the opener last night but we didn’t like what we saw. Detroit scored three runs in the first inning off Bartolo Colon, had numerous other chances to score but did not have that killer instinct to put this A’s team away. Instead, the Tigers held on for dear life in a 3-2 win. It was still a win and a win is a win but you could sense the momentum switching and the A’s are likely to carry that game effort over to this one against Justin Verlander. Verlander dod not have a typical Verlander year. He went 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA but labored greatly in many of his starts. In fact, just 22 of his 34 starts were of the quality variety and his walk total of 75 BB’s is an alarming number. Furthermore, Verlander’s groundball rate of 38% was the lowest of his career and when you combine that with the number of walks he issued, it’s a sure sign that he’s getting the ball up and could be suffering from fatigue. Verlander ended the year with an unacceptable 1.31 WHIP. Overall his skills were average but his pedigree has him wrongly priced here.

Sonny Gray sounds more like a boxer than a pitcher but take note of this hurler because he’s by far the best the A’s have to offer and he’s headed for all-star status. Gray flashed his upside during his first full month in MLB. His skills in August were fantastic with 9 K’s per nine innings, good control and a 47% groundball rate. In his first full month, Gray had an average fastball velocity of 93.1 mph, as well as a strong 9.1% swinging strike rate then September rolled around and he was even better. Over his final six starts of the season, Gray had an elite groundball rate of 61%. His line-drive rate was also elite at 18%. Over his final 36 frames, Gray struck out 37 batters and posted a 2.27 ERA to go along with a BAA of .189. Furthermore, the Tigers have never faced this outstanding young right-hander and that’s a huge edge in Gray’s favor. Justin Verlander is a marquee name in baseball and is considered to be one of the best. However, he has not pitched like it this year, while Sonny Gray is only known by those that follow this game closely. Seriously, if Max Scherzer was only -120 against Bartolo Colon last night, how the hell can Justin Verlander be -127 over Sonny Gray? That, my friends, is true value.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +123 over TORONTO

OT included. The Maple Leafs are off to a 2-0 start with both wins coming on the road. Those two road wins has the Leafs stock a little too high right now and that provides us with a nice take-back opportunity on the Senators. The Leafs did not look sharp against Philadelphia and had it not been for the outstanding goaltending by Jonathan Bernier, they may have been down 3 or 4-0 instead of 1-0. Against Montreal, in its season opener, Toronto played a decent game but Montreal looked very sloppy in all aspects of its game. Now the Leafs open their home portion of the schedule and things are about to get a whole lot tougher on them. This isn’t Montreal or Philadelphia. 

Joining Daniel Alfredsson through the exit door were forwards Jakob Silfverberg, Peter Regin, Guillaume Latendresse, Sergei Gonchar, Andre Benoit and Mike Lundin. The new faces include forwards Bobby Ryan, Clarke MacArthur and Joe Corvo and these moves make the Senators a better hockey team. What the Sens accomplished last year with a depleted lineup was remarkable and this year they start off healthy. The addition of Ryan was a big-time move. Spezza really hasn't had a reliable triggerman on his top line in Ottawa since the days of Dany Heatley and Ryan will shine in a market that will get his juices flowing again. The Sens are rock solid on both the blue-line and in net and that outstanding back end was on display in the Sens 1-0 win over Buffalo last night. That was a flattering score to the Sabres. Ottawa was relentless in their attack and figure to be even better tonight with a game under its belt and lots of motivation. The Sens are a strong hockey club that kept turning heads last season and will do the same this year. The Sens possess the league’s premier defensemen in Erik Karlsson, a beast d-men with a high ceiling in Jared Cowan, the ever reliable Marc Methot (who was invited to Team Canada camp), Chris Phillips remains the dependable veteran he's been for a long time, Patrick Wiercioch opened a lot of eyes last season after getting a chance to play real minutes thanks to all the injuries and Joe Corvo and Eric Gryba complete a d corps that might be the best in the game. The betting market has not caught up to just how good this Ottawa outfit really is, which provides us with some outstanding value here. This line is out of whack.


Tampa Bay +195 over CHICAGO

OT included. They were great last year. Second in goals-per-game to Pittsburgh (3.10 per), first in goals-against-per (2.02 a night), they smoked the league at 5-on-5 (first in goals for/against with 1.52), and while their PP wasn’t great (19th), they had the third best kill in the league and they won the Stanley Cup. The Blackhawks will once again be tough as shoe leather with all that talent but no team has repeated in 16 years and Chicago did not get better over the summer. Corey Crawford is a league average goaltender, who allowed four goals in the opener. There’s no second line center on this team either and losing Michael Frolik will have a bigger impact that most think. A Stanley Cup hangover, much like the Kings suffered through the first half of last year and almost every team has suffered through for 16 years is almost inevitable and we’ll pick our spots to fade the Blackhawks. This is one of those spots.

We played the Lightning in their opening night loss in Boston and had a great chance of cashing the ticket at a big price. The Bolts took the play to Boston most of the evening but ran into a super-hot Tuukka Rask in net. The Bolts played a strong game on both ends of the ice and even though they lost, it was a good indication of what this team is capable of. That loss in Boston was in no way a demoralizing one and in fact, it likely gives them more confidence coming into this one. We also like that Ben Bishop is likely to start in goal after Anders Lindback got the call on opening night. Bishop is a true giant that has the potential to be one of the game’s best netminders. The Bolts are stacked up front, they’re solid on defense and in goal and any time we can take back a price like this on the Lightning you can pencil is in. If we lose this bet, which of course is quite possible, that’s ok too because the Bolts will then be 0-2 and will provide us with even more value over the next few games. There is a ton of profit potential on this visitor.


MINNESOTA -½ +133 over Anaheim

It was rather curious that Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau decided to start Victor Fasth over Jonas Hiller in the opening game. Fasth allowed six goals on 29 shots and the Ducks lost 6-1 to Colorado. A loss to open the season is no big deal but a 6-1 loss is and that prompts us to fade the Ducks again. Anaheim could be a team in trouble. Losing Bobby Ryan hurts the team and the dressing room, as there is a glaring void to fill. The Ducks defense is one of the league’s worst and one could argue that it is the worst with only one reliable set. After Cory Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, which teams will focus on defending, where is the secondary scoring going to come from? There are problems galore throughout this line-up and it figures to be on display once again, just like it was in the opener.

The Wild are coming off a loss also, only they lost in OT to the powerful Kings in a game that Minnesota only allowed 18 shots on net. They Wild still picked up a point and will be even determined here. This is a young team on the rise with a handful of quality young players who will only improve with age.  Jonas Brodin was a legitimate first-pairing defenseman in his rookie year. Charlie Coyle is an emerging power forward and the NHL experience he got last season will help him adjust as he moves back to his natural position at center. Jared Spurgeon and Marco Scandella aren’t just quality, young NHL defenseman, but they’re locked up and cost controlled for several seasons. Beyond internal improvements from the young guns and Dany “best shape of my life in a contract year” Healtey, the Wild managed to deal Cal Clutterbuck for value (Nino Neidereitter) while also upgrading their third-line with the addition of Matt Cooke. Between Cooke, Kyle Brodziak and whatever winger earns the other spot on that third-line – the Wild are going to have a dynamite checking line to back up one of the league’s best top groups. The Parise, Koivu, Pominville line? One of the league’s best already. If they’re not already in Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams territory, and they’re not in terms of reputation, then they’re close in actual quality. You want a top-group that can control 55% of shot attempts against tough competition while shooting an elevated percentage? Look no further. We haven’t even mentioned Ryan Suter yet. The Wild are poised to be extremely good this season and frankly, we’d be very surprised to see the Ducks come in here and send the Wild to a 0-2 home record to begin the year. The Wild are an under the radar team with outstanding value on them right now. We cash in on that here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Tom Barton

Florida State vs Maryland
Play: Over 56

The history of the Seminoles is littered with tremendous defensive play and while there have been good offenses in the past this is one of the more explosive I can remember. Winston Jameson is as talented a QB as there is in the country and with the speed they built around him it doesn't seem possible for this team to not score 40+ every game. The Seminoles are ranked 3rd in the country at 52 points per game average and have not missed toe 40 point mark yet this year. Their balanced rushing and passing attacks are both ranked in the top 25 and that is where the problems are. If you decide to stop Jameson they can run off huge chunks of yardage on the ground. Maryland's D has looked good but the weak offenses they have faced can't tell the whole story here. Meanwhile the FSU defense has looked great at times this year but we also saw they can be exposed as they were a bit last week against Boston College. The Terps are averaging just about 40 points per game themselves and I expect some sort of success against the Noles here as well. I doubt this game gets to video game levels but I certainly see the Seminoles at home scoring near 40 again and the Terps will get into the 20's.

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InsiderAngles Sports

Washington vs Stanford
Pick : Stanford

The Stanford Cardinal (4-0, 2-2 ATS) appear to be on course for a November 7th meeting with Oregon for a Pac-12 Championship  berth, so they cannot afford to slip vs. the Washington Huskies (4-0, 3-1 ATS) from Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto Saturday at 10:30 ET on ESPN. Washington is currently ranked 18th in the country, but this will be the Huskies' acid test to see exactly where they stand in the Pac-12 North Division pecking order.

The entre football world is looking for a clash of unbeatens come November 7th, and Stanford has had relatively little trouble staving off all comers so far. After opening up the year by cruising to a couple of non-conference wins, the Cardinal were supposed to finally face some challenges in Pac-12 play the last two weeks, but that really was not the case as Stanford handled Arizona State 42-28 at home and Washington State 55-17 on the road, scoring those 55 points on a Cougars team that still ranks 25th in the country in total defense. So now this is supposed to be the next "toughest challenge yet" for the Cardinal, but they seem more than up for it as they have actually improved offensively this year over last, averaging 440.8 yards per game with amazing balance, amassing 219.5 rushing yards and 221.2 passing yards, leading to 41.2 points per contest. Combine that production with the most physical defense in the Pac-12 and one of the most physical in the entire country, and it is easy to see why Stanford is given the best chance of any team to knock of Oregon this year.

Now this is not to disparage the Huskies in any manner, as they have done what they had to do to remain undefeated to this point also. In fact, their average yardage differential over their opponents of +285.2 yards per game (574.0-288.8) is one of the very best in the country. However, that figure is greatly aided by outgaining Idaho State out of the FCS by 516 yards two weeks ago. Now to be fair, Washington has still outgained every opponent it has faced, but not by as much as its insane average if you factor out the Idaho State devastation. Granted Washington did hand Stanford one of its two losses last year 17-13 over in Seattle, but that could work against Washington here as great teams like Stanford playing with revenge become doubly dangerous.

Stanford is an amazing 25-3-1 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring 40 or more points in its previous game, as well as 25-6-1 ATS in its last 32 games after gaining more than 280 passing yards its previous game. Washington is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.

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Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Missouri PK over VANDERBILT: Missouri is one of the more underrated teams in the nation and they should prove it with a solid win here. Missouri comes in at 4-0 on the year and that includes 17 point road win at a very improved Indiana squad. The Offense has been very good as they come in ranked 7th in total offense, putting up 549 ypg, while averaging 45.5 ppg on the year. They don't just play offense, as the Tigers also come in have allowed just 21 ppg on the year and are 26th in the nation vs the run allowing just 115.8 ypg on the ground. Vanderbilt is 3-2 on the year, but they are 0-2 in the SEC with a home loss to Ole Miss and a road loss at South Carolina. They have on 2 in a row, but beating UMass and UAB are hardly noteworthy and in fact they nearly beat UMass as they led just 10-7 entering the 4th quarter. The Commodores are average on both sides of the ball, but I feel that the big edge goes to the Tigers on offense, plus they have revenge on their minds for a 19-15 home loss last year to Vandy. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS their last 7 at home vs a winning team, plus they are 2-11 ATS in game 6 of the season. Missouri will show just how for real they are. 

3 UNIT PLAY

Clemson -14 over SYRACUSE: The Orange come in off a couple of blowout wins over Wagner and Tulane. C'Mon man. The are 0-2 vs real competition, losing y 6 at home to Penn State and, while losing by 21 points at Northwestern. Well I will tell you that Clemson is head and shoulders above both those squads. The Tigers are ranked 4th in the nation and have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Best offense that the Orange have faces was Northwestern and they allowed 48 points and 581 yards in that game. I don't see this defense holding up vs the Tigers here. The biggest improvement this year for the Tigers is their defense. Last year this defense was a mess, but they come in 36th in total defense and 25th in points allowed (17.2 ppg) and it is that defense that makes them one of the most complete teams in the nation. Syracuse is just not in their class, even in the Carrier Dome and Clemson will show it with a 21+ point win.     

2 UNIT PLAYS

MISSISSIPPI STATE +9.5 over LSU: Situationaly speaking this is not a good spot for LSU, as they are off a tough and wild battle with Georgia and have Florida on deck. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is off a bye week and just has Bowling Green on deck. LSU has really shown some cracks in the defense of late and I feel that MSU will put up enough points to keep this one close.

Ohio -3.5 over AKRON: I have to go with Ohio at this short price. The Bobcats haven't been impressive on the stat line, but they are still winning. Ohio has beaten this team 5 years in a row, with all 5 wins coming by 6 points. The Zips have shown improvement this year, but they are still a very bad team on defense and I feel that will cost them here vs a Bobcat team that has the capability of breaking out at any time. I look for them to do that here and win this game by DD.   

1 UNIT PLAY

Virginia Tech/ North Carolina Over 45.5: The Hokie offense has had problems scoring, but they should break out vs a weak Carolina defense in this one. Carolina has a real bad run defense and that should help the Hokies establish the run, which will set up play action for some big gains down field. The Heels offense has been inconsistent this year, but they will throw the ball all over the place and find away to put up point on the Hokies here. I see this as a 28-21 type game.

Top 5 Power Angles For The Week (2-2-1)

The Penn State Nitany Lions are 1-14 ATS in their first conference game of the year. Penn State is 3 point road favorites vs Indiana.

Home Favorites of 21.5 to 31 that are off a bye week are 45-9 ATS the last 10 years. Baylor takes on Wester Virginia at home as 28.5 point favorites.

LSU Coach Les Miles is 4-15 ATS when off a game in which 60+ points were scored. LSU Is 9.5 point road favorites at Mississippi State.

Ball State is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games as a road dog. Ball State is 4.5 points dogs at Virginia.

Miami Coach Al Golden is 14-1-1 ATS as conference home favorites of 7 or less.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

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Baylor v West Virginia
Play: Baylor

This line opened at Baylor minus 21, and is now minus 28. Do not let this high number scare you away. This is going to be a complete blowout from the start as we have this game right around a 40 point blowout. This is the biggest line movement we have see all season so you might be a little hesitant to pull the trigger on the bears but don’t be. Yes we are aware of the upset on Oklahoma State last week but that plays right into this large number. Baylor has been nearly unstoppable, ever since Griffin’s first game (56.9 ppg last 15 lined affairs). Baylor put up 63 on West Virginia last season on the road, and now in revenge, Bears 5-1 ATS in conference revenge, while the Mounties are a meager 0-7 road dog of +4 or more when facing a team with revenge. Considering that WV has really been a BUST this season, putting up 7 at Oklahoma and getting ripped by Maryland on the road by 38 isn’t a great situation to be in. Baylor has rung up 69 or more points this season in EVERY GAME to date, and has a magnificent 12-1 mark at home ATS, among those wins, an outright victory over then #1 in the nation Kansas State in an impressive 52-24 rout. This is our System Okay of the Week:

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