Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Statfox Brian

Washington at Stanford
Play: Stanford -7

I'm big on revenge games, especially at home for an evening game. Washington ruined Stanford's season by holding them to 65 rushing yards in a 17-13 home upset, but the Cardinal, who started Josh Nunes that day, are a more multi-faceted offense with QB Kevin Hogan who is 11-0 SU (8-3 ATS) in all 11 collegiate games he's ever thrown a pass in. Stanford should control the line of scrimmage in this one after outrushing its two Pac-12 opponents (ASU and WSU) by a combined 478 yards to 101 yards. And not enough can be said about how prepared this Cardinal team has been since David Shaw arrived at Stanford, where he's 21-9 ATS (70%) overall, 19-5 ATS (79%) after an SU win, 6-0 ATS after a win by 28+ points and 10-0 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its previous game. Stanford rolls to a 20-point victory here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

River City Sports

Ohio State at Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +7

A matchup of the two favorites at this point in the Big 10, both of which come into the game undefeated. Ohio State pulled out a 31-24 win last week against Wisconsin, a game that featured the return of QB Braxton Miller. He had 198 pass yds and 4 TD’s against the Badgers and looks back in mid-season form. The Wildcats have lost the last four meetings to the Buckeyes, but will get a big lift with the return of senior RB Venric Mack. The Wildcat offense is really stout, averaging 41 ppg and features a 2 QB system with Green and Colter. We think this will be an electric environment Saturday night in Evanston and really think the Wildcats have a chance to shock the world. We wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see the outright upset, but glad to grab the points at home!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Bruce Marshall

Rice vs. Tulsa
Pick: Rice

Is the better team getting points in this Conference USA clash? Graduation-depleted Tulsa "D" (nine new starters), continued to spring leaks in loss to Iowa State, confirming early warning from C-USA sources. Meanwhile, unassertive QB Cody Green (only 5 TDP in 4 games) showing why Bo Pelini didn't block his transfer from Nebraska. Improving Rice "D" made big plays to turn around a potential loss last week vs. FAU. Tulsa (0-4 vs. line) burning money fast.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Nick Parsons

Edmonton vs. Vancouver
Pick: Vancouver

Both teams are 0-1 and each is looking to get off the schneid.

For a number of different reasons I believe the home side is worth a second look tonight.

The Oilers

Edmonton fell apart mid-way through the second to lose 5-4 to Winnipeg in its opener (I had the Jets in that one).

Edmonton is 0-4-1 in its last five visits to Vancouver, getting held to just seven goals (that includes two shutouts as well).

I think it's significant to note that Edmonton is a poor 2-7 (-5.9 units) in its last nine when playing with three or more days of rest.

The Canucks

There was a silver-lining in Vancouver's 4-1 loss to the Sharks on Thursday, killing all eight of San Jose's power plays.

If history is any precedence, then the Canucks have to be loving their chances tonight as they've earned at least one point in 17 of their last 20 home games vs. Edmonton, including a 9-1-1 record over the past four seasons.

One player that's feasted on the Oilers is Henrik Sedin with 15 points during the run of success.

Note that the Canucks are 12-6 (+3 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous contest.

The Bottom Line

Vancouver hasn't opened a season with consecutive defeats in over 15 seasons and I don't think that will change this year.

Consider laying the price on the "better" team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Steve Merril

Arizona State vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s stock is real low after losing by 2 touchdowns at home, but the Irish have a significant defensive edge in this game and we’ll take the Irish plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

Arizona State and Notre Dame will play a neutral site game at the home of the Dallas Cowboys (AT&T Stadium) in Arlington, Texas.  This is an awkward scheduling spot for Arizona State as they have to travel and play a non-conference game sandwiched between two previous conference games and seven more conference games on deck.  It’s especially worse since the Sun Devils are off such a big blowout win in which they played the best football they could possibly play.  Arizona State has a terrible defense that is giving up 6.8 yards per play (#112 in the country) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (#103 in the country).  Their main issue in this game will be their rush defense that allows 239.7 yards per game on the ground on a whopping 6.1 yards per rush.

Notre Dame ran the ball incredibly well last week in their 35-21 home loss to Oklahoma.  The Irish ran for an impressive 220 yards on Oklahoma while gaining an incredible 7.6 yards per rush.  The Sooners’ defense is much better than Arizona State so Notre Dame projects to have a lot of success running the ball in this game.  The Irish have a solid defense this season.  Notre Dame is allowing 23.8 points per game while holding opponents to 5.1 yards per play.  Their pass defense has also been good which is important against the strong passing attack of Arizona State.  The Irish are allowing only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and opponents have completed just 57.4% of their passes on Notre Dame.  Last week’s results have created a lot of value on Notre Dame in this game.  Arizona State can’t possibly repeat their performance from last week’s game against USC.  And they match-up poorly against the Irish while being in a terrible scheduling situation.  Notre Dame’s stock is real low after losing by 2 touchdowns at home, but the Irish have a significant defensive edge in this game and we’ll take the Irish plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Larry Ness

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State

Was Oklahoma State caught “off guard” last Saturday by West Va? If so, the Mountaineers 30-21 upset of the then-No.11 Cowboys, has surely gotten Oklahoma State’s attention. The loss dropped OSU to No. 21 in the latest AP poll and more importantly, gives the school an unexpected Big 12 loss, with trips to Texas Tech and Texas plus home games against Baylor and Oklahoma still on the Cowboys’ schedule. It’s more than reasonable to expect that OSU will NOT likely be caught off guard by this year’s Kansas State team, one that hardly resembles the teams which went 10-3 and 11-2 under QB Collin Klein.

KSU opened its 2013 season by losing 24-21 at home as 12 1/2-point favorites to North Dakota St and two Saturdays ago, 31-21 at struggling Texas. Oklahoma State was named as the preseason favorite to claim its second Big 12 crown in three years. but the 30-21 loss at West Virginia (which was coming off a 37-0 loss to Maryland), as almost three-TD favorites, has the team reeling. Or does it? Oklahoma State has shown a strong ability to regroup under coach Mike Gundy, as the Cowboys are 10-1 in regular-season games immediately following losses dating back to November 17, 2007, and are also 31-1 vs unranked teams at home going back to 2006.

The Cowboys are 21-7-1 as a home favorite going back to 2006 and enter this game having covered their last EIGHT in the role of a home favorite "We have to approach it the same every week," said Gundy, whose team fell 10 spots in the AP poll. "It never really changes for us. There's been a considerable number of times in the last few years where we're ranked in the top 10 in the country and you're worried about looking past an opponent, and now we're saying that we've got to put that one aside and get ready for the next opponent. It's the same thing."

Sophomore quarterback J.W. Walsh had completed 70.2 percent of his passes in the team’s first three games but was awful at West Va, completing 20 for 47 (42.6), the lowest single-game completion percentage by a Cowboys QB in a regular-season game in more than six years. Walsh missed last year's 44-30 loss at then-No. 3 Kansas State due to a knee injury, and the Wildcats picked off Clint Chelf and Wes Lunt four times. Walsh was picked off twice by the Mountaineers after Oklahoma State had committed just ONE turnover as a team in opening 30-0.

As noted earlier, Collin Klein is no longer at Kansas St and Jake Waters is a poor imitation of last year’s Heisman candidate. The Wildcats two wins this year have come over UL-Lafayette (2-2) and UMass (0-4), neither one being noteworthy. Kansas St is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Jimmy Boyd

Marshall -14

The Thundering Herd offense has been unstoppable this season. They are averaging 39.7 points per game overall, and improve their scoring average to 53.5 points per game when playing at home. They should be able to light up the scoreboard once again, against a UTSA defense that has allowed 35.8 pointsper game this season. Marshall runs a very balanced attack on offense, and they don't have a weakness either way. On the ground they have averaged 194 rushing yards per game, and they are completing over 60% of their pass attempts for 291 yards per game through the air.

UTSA is 2-3 this season thanks to a fairly soft schedule. This week they don't have the luxury of facing another soft opponent. The Roadrunners are a very easy team to defend. They have a very strong pass bias, running the ball almost 10 carries less than they have pass attempts. That plays into Marshall's greatest defensive strength. The Thundering Herd secondary has held opponents to a 54.3% completion rate and 184 yards per game. When playing at home those numbers improve to a 44.2% completion rate allowed for 141 passing yards. Given the way these teams match up, I don't see many scenarios where the Roadrunners are able to keep this game close.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Joseph D'Amico

Missouri vs. Vanderbilt    
Play: Missouri

This Saturday has an interesting matchup with Missouri at Vanderbilt. The line is currently Vandy-2 with a Total of 56. Missouri is 4-0 on the season possessing a balanced offense averaging 262 yards rushing and 287 yards passing and posting 45.5 PPG. Vanderbilt came up short against both quality opponents this year in Mississippi and South Carolina, being outgained 579 yards to 268 yards. The revenge factor is alive as a Tigers team was depleted from both suspensions and injuries in last year's loss to the Commodores. Vandy has problems with mobile QBs and James Franklin is just that. Take Mizzou here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Rob Vinciletti

North Texas vs. Tulane    
Play: North Texas -3

North Texas ravels into Tulane to take on a Green Wave team that is off a Big road dog win in their last game. Tulane now fits a system that is very close to the one we used last night that played against LA. Monroe in their loss to W. Kentucky last night which cashed nicely for us. Home favorites from -3 to +25 are 36-86 to the spread long term off a road dog win at +10 or higher, vs an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or less. North Texas has the extra week to prepare and is 3-0 straight up and ats of late off a bye week, they have also won 10 of 13 as a road favorite of 3 or less. Tulane is 3-17 at home when the total is 49 to 56 and has lost 9 of 12 as a home dog of 3 or less. So we will lay the small number with North Texas.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Johnny Wynn

Ohio -4.5

Akron has played very well recently and almost beating Michigan a few weeks ago. The public sees this and knows this so they have jumped on the Zips. Ohio is an undervalued team in the MAC and today is a good day to take them.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Steve Janus

Arkansas Razorbacks +13

The Razorbacks have lost back-to-back games since opening the season at 3-0, but there’s plenty of reason to be excited about the direction this team is headed under first year head coach Bret Bielema. Arkansas gave a highly ranked Texas A&M team all they could handle at home last week. The Razorbacks trailed just 20-24 at the half and were down just 33-38 at the end of three quarters. They would end up losing 33-45, which was a marked improvement from last year’s 48-point loss to the Aggies.

It hasn’t taken long for Bielema to turn Arkansas into a force on the ground. The Razorbacks torched the Texas A&M defense for 246 yards on 45 attempts and come into this game ranked 36th in the country with an average of 211.3 ypg. The ability to run the football sets up a very favorable situation to back Arkansas. Road underdogs who feature an excellent rushing offense (averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game over the last 5 seasons.

One of the key things to keep in mind in this game is that Florida doesn’t feature an explosive offense. The Gators have reached the 30-point plateau just once this season and are currently ranked 93rd in the country with an average of just 23.8 ppg. Arkansas’ defense didn’t play all that well against Texas A&M, but are still ranked 31st in total defense, giving up just 336.4 ypg. You also have to take into consideration that Florida starting quarterback Jeff Driskel is out for the season. While backup Tyler Murphy has played well in his place, Arkansas’ defense should be able to key in on stopping the run.

It’s going to take a big time performance from both sides of the football for Arkansas to win this game, but you have to like their chances of keeping it close. I could easily see the Razorbacks covering here with just 13-17 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Jack Jones

Baylor -28

The Baylor Bears were one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2013. I believe they still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They have not only opened 3-0 both straight up and 3-0 against the spread, they have absolutely crushed the number in all three wins. Baylor beat Wofford 69-3 as a 29.5-point favorite, Buffalo 70-13 as a 28.5-point favorite, and Louisiana-Monroe 70-7 as a 30-point favorite. It has outscored its first three opponents by an average of 62.0 points per game.

Baylor is scoring 69.7 points per game while averaging 751.3 total yards per game to rank 1st in the country in total offense. Almost equally impressive has been the improvement from the defense, which is giving up just 7.7 points and 297.0 total yards per game to rank 15th in total defense. You have to factor in that the Bears haven’t even had to play their starters for an entire game yet. That makes both the offensive and defensive numbers even more remarkable. Now, they come in on two weeks rest having last played on September 21.

West Virginia is 0-2 in its two road games this season. It lost at Oklahoma 7-16 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It also fell 0-37 to Maryland, gaining just 175 total yards while committing six turnovers in the loss. While the Mountaineers did beat Oklahoma State at home last week, that sets them up for a big letdown spot against a Bears team that wants revenge from its 63-70 loss at WVU last season.

Plays on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) – off a bye week are 45-9 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against any team (W VIRGINIA) – off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, in weeks 5 through 9 are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Baylor is 15-2 against the spread in its last 17 home games. The Bears are 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Baylor is 11-1 against the number in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last three seasons. This is a team that is not afraid to run up the score, which makes me unafraid of laying four touchdowns in a revenge game. Bet Baylor Saturday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Sean Higgs

Maryland vs. Florida State    
Play: Florida State -16

The undefeated Maryland Terrapins travel to Tallahassee to face the undefeated, and #8th ranked Florida State Seminoles.

It is the old irresistible force versus the immovable object. Seminoles are explosive on offense posting a mind-boggling 51.3ppg. That is 4th overall in the nation. But the Terrapins bring a tough defense to town that is allowing just 10ppg. Maryland comes in off a bye week after crushing West Virginia 37-0. Plenty of extra prep time to gear up for Florida State’s freshman QB Jameis Winston.

Maryland is 2-8 ATS last 10 at Florida State and just 2-21 SU vs the Seminoles. So before we get all giddy about the Terps perfect record let’s look at some facts. Yes, this team looks like a defensive force. Terps lead the nation in sacks and negative plays. The defense is ranked 3rd in ppg and 7th in total yards. But who has this team played? Let’s look at their game before their bye week. They smoked West Virginia 37-0. Wow! I am pretty sure that this is the same West Virginia team that lost its two best wide receivers, and their starting QB to the NFL draft. This is the same Mountaineers team that gave up nearly 40ppg last year.

The week before that, they allowed 21 to UCONN. Yes, the same UCONN that lost to Towson and Buffalo. Plus they had the added advantage of their coach knowing the players of that team! Let’s not forget the offensive, football powerhouse of Old Dominion. A football factory on par with the old Miami U teams or the present day Alabama dynasty! And finally, they smoked Florida Int’l. Holding them to 10 points is a real achievement. They only just lost to Louisville 72-0. Oh that isn’t good enough. How about dropping a game, at home to Bethune Cookman! As Bill Parcells once said, ‘let’s put away the anointing oil.’

Enter Florida State off a sloppy game vs Boston College. I am happy for that game. You see, with Clemson on deck, the Seminoles know they can’t get too cute here. They already had a close call vs BC. They won’t be overlooking this group. I am sure Jimbo Fisher will get it through his guys that next week’s game will mean nothing if they get knocked off here.

Final Thoughts

We will lay it with the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES here. Let’s not beat around the bush here. Florida State has a huge advantage in talent on both sides of the ball. Maryland had the benefit of an easy schedule. This is a tough venue to play, ESPN at high noon. I think I smell some turtle soup. FLORIDA STATE wins big!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Jeff Alexander

Mississippi State +10

This is a tough spot for LSU. The Tigers are coming off an excruciating 44-41 loss at Georgia, and they have a big game against Florida on deck. Because of the scheduling, I don't believe they'll give Mississippi State the attention it deserves. The Bulldogs have had a bye week to focus on LSU, and they will be lacking no motivation because they have dropped 13 straight in the series. Mississippi State has been money at home on Saturday's under coach Mullen at 17-8 ATS. It is 11-3 ATS in Saturday home games the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games overall. Bet the Bulldogs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Red Dog Sports

Ottawa vs Torronto
Play: Under 5½

I like the under on Saturday especially with Ottawa involved. Toronto is off to an nice start but the Senators play solid defense and have a great goalie. It does concern me that Ottawa played last night but our free pick is on under 5.5.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Freddy Wills

Army vs. Boston College    
Play: Army +11½

This is very similar to last years match up as Boston College just came off a 14 point loss to Clemson, but played well and had Florida State up next and sandwiched in between was Army who upset them. This year BC just played well vs. Florida State and has Clemson up next instead.

Army is 2nd in rushing yardage per game so far this season and had over 500 yards against Army. Both these teams are run first teams so blowing the other opponent out is going to be harder to do as both rank int he top 20 in rushing play % with Army rushing it 82% of the time. Army comes off a game against LA Tech where they were +3.5 on the road and won 35-16 in convincing fashion. Army also played well at home losing 34-20 against Stanford. This is a bend but don't break defense that is very disciplined and I don't think BC's offense is good enough to win by more than TD's and even if they are able to put up points BC's defense is not good enough to keep Army from moving the ball.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Dave Price

Michigan -18½

Michigan is 4-0 but is fortunate to be so as it nearly slipped up against Akron and UConn. The Wolverines have had a bye week to regroup following those close-calls, and I expect them to be ready to go here. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Minnesota opened 4-0 but benefited greatly from a weak schedule. It met its match last week as it was outgained 464-165 in a 23-7 home loss to Iowa. The final score could have been a lot worse as Iowa led 20-0 with over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Thankfully for the Golden Gophers, Iowa decided to run out the clock. Michigan won't be feeling as generous after back-to-back lackluster efforts. It is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five against Minnesota, winning the last four by 24, 23, 58 and 22. Also, the Wolverines have rattled off 17 in a row inside the Big House. They are 11-6 ATS in these contests, including 8-3 ATS when laying 10 points or more. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Jim Feist

Washington vs. Stanford    
Play: Under 53

A big Pac 12 matchup between a pair of unbeatens. Showdown games like this can mean lots of defense and the under is 7-2 the last nine meetings, including last year: Stanford was -7 chalk but lost 17-13 at Washington. The Huskies had 313 yds (136 rushing), Stanford had 235 (65 rushing) as Washington played a super defensive game. Stanford has one of the top defenses in the country, a powerhouse unit. They are a run-oriented offense behind sophomore QB Kevin Hogan (10 TDs, 4 INTs) behind a strong offensive line with senior RB Anthony Wilkerson (191) and Tyler Gaffney (377, 5.6 ypc). Stanford was the nation's No. 3 ranked run defense in 2012 and led the nation in sacks returning junior DE Henry Anderson and senior Ben Gardner. Play Washington/Stanford under the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Bill Biles

Baylor -27.5

Baylor can put up points with the best of them. However Baylor's defense is much improved and is helping get that high powered offense back on the field. West Virginia is coming off a major upset vs Oklahoma State, but they wont do it again as they Baylor should be able to win this by 30 or more.


Virginia Tech -7

VT looks to avenge last years lose to North Carolina where they lost 48-34. Virginia Tech ranks 4th in the country in total defense. The way North Carolina has played they will be lucky to score any points in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

Bryan Leonard

Kansas State +14

Much respect to Mike Gundy and the Cowboys at home but this line is much too high not to favor the underdog Wildcats. Since Bill Snyder returned to Manhattan the Wildcats are now 12-6 ATS against conference opponents. 10-3 ATS when installed as a road underdog against any opponent. Off a disappointing loss to Texas followed by a bye week, we take advantage of a coaching edge here with the veteran Snyder. The last three seasons Kansas State has been outscored by Oklahoma State 106-103, a 3 point margin. In those games the Wildcats were a combined 34 point underdog. The Wildcats are converting on a whopping 59% of their third down attempts, as this team can beat you through the air or on the ground.

Oklahoma State is off an upset loss at West Virginia, the same Mountaineers team that lost to Maryland in blow out fashion. And in retrospect West Virginia was the better team on the field. We have serious concerns about this Cowboy defense which is permitting over 303 passing yards per contest against FBS competition. That includes Mississippi State, UTSA and West Virginia, not elite squads by any means. Plenty of points will be scored in this one but rarely does a Bill Snyder team get outworked. An outright victory may be too much to ask but in all honesty it wouldn't be a surprising outcome.

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