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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 2

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 2

TAMPA BAY (92 - 71) at CLEVELAND (92 - 70) - 8:05 PM


Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
CLEVELAND is 92-70 (+25.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 51-30 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 89-67 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 58-50 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-49 (+7.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-34 (+19.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-6 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
CLEVELAND is 106-111 (-34.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
CLEVELAND is 38-73 (-26.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+1.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.3 Units)

ALEX COBB vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
COBB is 2-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

No recent starts.

Tampa Bay is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland   
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Cobb: Tampa Bay 4-11 SU when playing with a day off
Salazar: Cleveland 23-9 SU in home games after allowing 2 runs or less

AL Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay went 13-5 since Sept. 12 to get here; they're 8-3 in last 11 games on foreign soil. Cleveland won 10 games in row and 15 of last 17 to get here

Rays are 4-2 vs Indians this season; four of six games ended in shutouts, with Tampa Bay not scoring in either loss. Teams last met on June 2, so lot changed for both sides since then. Over was 3-3 in those six games, with Rays winning two of three in both series.

Three of last four Tampa games went over total, as have five of Cleveland's last seven games. Rays played in Toronto Sunday, Texas Monday and now here; Indians haven't played since Sunday.

StatFox Super Situations


Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start 81-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.1% 38.6 units ) 14-18 this year. ( 43.8% -0.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

CLEVELAND is 23-5 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.5) , OPPONENT (2.9)

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 2

Rays at Indians: What Bettors Need to Know

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians (+104, 7)

The Cleveland Indians raced through September with the best record in the major leagues, including a 10-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Their reward for that finishing kick is hosting the Tampa Bay Rays in a one-game American League wild card playoff on Wednesday for the right to play the top-seeded Boston Red Sox in the Division Series. The Rays earned their entry Monday by winning 5-2 at Texas in a one-game tiebreaker.

That game at Texas forced Tampa Bay to use ace David Price for all nine innings, leaving him unavailable to face Cleveland. The Indians would have preferred to save Ubaldo Jimenez for Wednesday, but an uncertain status forced him to go in his regular rotation spot Sunday. Cleveland feasted on sub-.500 opponents in September but was 36-52 in the regular season against teams with winning records, including 2-4 against the Rays.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing NE at 2 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays RH Alex Cobb (11-3, 2.76 ERA) vs. Indians RH Danny Salazar (2-3, 3.12)

Cobb finished up the regular season strong with wins in each of his last three starts. The Boston native surrendered a total of three runs on 23 1/3 innings while striking out 26 in those three turns and yielded more than two earned runs just twice in his last nine starts. Cobb made his first start of the season against Cleveland on April 6 and scattered four hits in 7 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win.

The Indians monitored Salazar carefully over the final month of the season, pulling him from games before 90 pitches. The 23-year-old Dominican struck out eight and allowed two runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings on Sept. 25 before being lifted after 89 pitches - his highest total since Aug. 7. Salazar will be backed up by a bullpen that now includes former ace Justin Masterson.


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland.
* Rays are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Rays are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Cleveland.


1. Rays 3B Evan Longoria is 12-for-29 with three home runs and 11 RBIs in his last seven games.

2. Cleveland 2B Jason Kipnis closed out the regular season 13-for-28 during a seven-game hitting streak.

3. Tampa Bay 1B James Loney led the majors in road batting average at .351.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 2

Rays at Indians
By Kevin Rogers

The American League Wild Card matchup involves two teams that hooked up in the opening series of the season. The surprising Indians are back in the playoffs for the first time since winning the AL Central back in 2007, while the Rays are in the postseason for the third time in four seasons after winning Monday's tiebreaker at Texas.

The Rangers had won seven straight games to force a play-in contest against the Rays, but David Price shut down the Texas lineup in a 5-2 victory as a short road favorite. Price tossed a complete-game to save the bullpen arms for a potential Wild Card contest on Wednesday, while Evan Longoria drove in a pair of runs as Tampa Bay led from start to finish.

The Indians took care of their business down the stretch by winning each of their last nine games, even though the victories came against the Astros, White Sox, and Twins - three teams who have been eliminated from playoff contention for a while. Terry Francona's club actually came within one game of Detroit for the AL Central championship, but the Tigers owned enough of an edge in the division despite getting swept by the Marlins in the final weekend.
One of Cleveland's keys to success this season was the 51-30 mark at Progressive Field, including a 13-4 record in the final 17 home contests. The Tribe's season comes down to 23-year old right-hander Danny Salazar on the mound, who put together a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts this season. However, Salazar put together just two quality outings, while lasting past the sixth inning only once since entering the rotation in July.

The Rays counter with righty Alex Cobb, who has been on fire in his last three starts. Cobb allowed just three earned runs, while striking out 26 batters in victories over the Rangers, Orioles, and Yankees - all in the favorite role. Since Cobb was drilled in the head with a line-drive against Kansas City in mid-June, the 25-year old is 5-1 in nine starts, which includes five quality outings.

Tampa Bay won four of six meetings from Cleveland this season, which started by taking two of three games at Tropicana Field in early April. One of the home victories by the Rays was started by Cobb, who tossed 7.1 scoreless innings in a 6-0 shutout on April 6. The Rays grabbed two of three at Progressive Field in early June, as Joe Maddon's club scored 20 runs in the two victories, resulting in a pair 'overs.'

Cleveland owns an 11-14 in 25 games as a home underdog this season, while Tampa Bay has won eight of its past 11 times in the road favorite role. The Rays enter tonight's contest as -115 away favorites, as the total is set at 7, shaded to the 'over' at -120. The game will be televised nationally on TBS at 8:00 PM EST.

AL Playoff Notes:

The Red Sox are waiting patiently to see if they'll face old friend Francona and the Indians, or have a 2008 ALCS rematch with the Rays. Boston beat Tampa Bay 12 of 19 times this season, while the Sox owned the Indians by beating Cleveland in six of seven meetings.

The Athletics lost in five games to the Tigers in the ALDS last October after rallying from a 2-0 deficit to force a decisive Game 5. This time around, Oakland will host the opening two games at O.Coliseum on Friday and Saturday, as the A's won four of seven meetings against the Tigers this season. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will start the first two games on the road for Detroit, while the resurgent Bartolo Colon will take the ball in the opener for Oakland.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 2

MLB Playoff Odds and Picks— Rays visit Indians in AL wild-card game
By: The Linemakers

The Rays are a -110 favorite in tonight’s wild-card game at Cleveland. The winner goes to Boston to face Jon Lester and the Red Sox in Friday’s ALDS opener. Both teams come into this game sizzling hot,with the Rays winning nine of their last 11 games, while the Indians have won 10 straight and 21 of their last 27.

The Rays won the seasons series, 4-2. Both Indians wins were shutouts, and two of the Rays' wins also came by shutout, including one by tonight’s starter, Alex Cobb, who went 7 1/3 innings in the 6-0 win at Tampa Bay on April 6.

A lot has happened to Cobb since that game, including being struck in the head by a line drive off the bat of Eric Hosmer on June 15, which caused him to miss 50 games. But since coming back, Cobb has been brilliant, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.41 ERA in nine starts. He has been the Rays' best pitcher of late.

It’s the pitching edge with Tampa Bay tonight that has them looking like the right side to bet on. Everything Indians manager Terry Francona has done down the stretch has worked to perfection, but starting rookie Danny Salazar (2-3, 3.12 ERA) in the biggest game of the year seems like he’s pushing the envelope too far.

Salazar throws hard, upwards to 97 mph, and has pitched well in September with a 2.52 ERA, but playoff baseball is a completely different story, especially for a kid who started his season at Double-A Akron. And the Indians did lose five of his last nine starts. It’s also unlikely that Salazar will go more than six innings even if he pitches well, and the Cleveland bullpen hasn’t been the strongest facet of the squad.

We expect the Cleveland crowd to be rocking, and would love to see former Buckeye Nick Swisher get to do his O - H to the crowd after a home run, but we think Cobb is the difference maker here. Rays, 7-3.

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