Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 4

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Brady KannonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego St. -6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State is just 1-and-3 on the season after getting their first win last week against New Mexico State but prior to this, they were matched against the likes of Oregon State and Ohio State.  So while Rocky Long's team is down this year, they are not out.  The Aztecs defense has been solid.  With a win tonight over Nevada and another next week versus Air Force, and they're in a pretty good spot in the Mountain West at 3-and-3.  Nevada meanwhile, has been great at home, albeit against less than stellar Hawaii, Air Force, and UC-Davis - and awful on the road, getting torched by UCLA and Fresno State.  We're figuring on that home-road separation, versus a respectable opponent, continuing here this evening.  Lay the 6 at the stadium just off the 8.

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NHL Predictions

New Jersey Devils -110

We took the Devils last night in Pittsburgh as big underdogs, and although they lost 3-0 I thought they looked good. I had New Jersey marked down around -140 before last night, and after a pretty solid performance I thought the line would still be around there for tonight's game. The Devils out shot Pittsburgh 27-21 but ran into a hot Marc-Andre Fleury who stopped everything including a penalty shot. This will be the season opener for the Islanders, and the Devils home opener. Last season the Islanders finished in 8th place in the East with 55 points, which was 7 more points than the Devils. New York won the season series 3-2, although they did have the extra home game. The Devils are 10-4 in their last 14 meetings vs New Jersey. Tonight's starters will most likely be Evgeni Nabokov and Martin Brodeur, who will make his first start of the season after having last night's game off due to personal reasons. These two goalie had similar numbers last year, with Brodeur having a GAA edge, but Nabokov having an edge in SV%. Neither looked too good in the preseason, but I expect these veteran goalies to be ready for tonight. Last night the Devils looked good limiting the Pens to just 21 shots in their home opener, and while they couldn't beat Marc-Andre Fleury I expect them to be able to find the back of the net at least a few times in their home opener tonight. Their loss last night, despite what I thought was good play, might have helped tonight's odds and I will take the Devils again for 2 units at a generous price.


Detroit Red Wings -125

Last night the Washington Capitals rallied to beat the Calgary Flames in a shootout, 5-4. The Capitals, similar to their opener against the Blackhawks, failed to hold up much defensively. The Caps coughed up three straight goals to give the youthful Calgary Flames a 3-0 lead in the first period. Holtby struggled in net for a second consecutive game to start the season, giving way to a goalie change with Michal Neuvirth. At this point in the game I pretty much accepted the fact that my PL was going to be a losing bet, but congrats to those that had the Capitals on the ML.

The Detroit Red Wings will make the trip to Carolina to play guest to the Hurricanes home opener, and season opener. While this is the third fourth night of the NHL season, there is actually a handful of teams that haven't played a game yet. The Hurricanes will seek to impress the home crowd against a Red Wings team that figures to be much better than a season ago. If you remember, the Red Wings struggled to make the playoffs, but ultimately got in, making things interesting in the Western Conference playoffs before getting outed by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks. This year the Wings are hungry and armed with a new contract for Pavel Datsyuk. The things Datsyuk does with the puck will live you speechless at times. This was on display the other night, as he slipped a nifty backhander past Ryan Miller. Throw in Henrik Zetterberg, and I think you could make a case for them being the best 1-2 punch in the league. Starting goalie Jimmy Howard got off to a good start Tuesday night, allowing only 1 goal on 20 shots against the Sabres. Howard is the undisputed starter in Detroit, looking to build off of an impressive 2012 season with just a 2.13 GAA. Conversely, the Hurricanes will finally get Cam Ward back this year after losing him, but looked rather shaky in the preseason. I have never been a big Ward fan to begin with, and I could see him having a lackluster year this season. He wasn't doing a great job keeping the puck out of the net when he went down with an injury, 2.84 GAA, and I see that translating into 2013-14 and tonight against the Wings. I see the Wings getting off to a fast start to this season, with a nice win tonight against the 'Canes to jump out to a 2-0 start against a team I see faltering with Ward between the pipes.

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Pittsburgh/ St Louis Over 7:  I had the Over last night and will come right back with it tonight. Gerrit Cole will be making his first ever post season start and you have to believe that there are some nerves there. He did have a very nice September, but the Cardinals are really hitting the ball well right now and they have put up 35 run in their last 5 home games vs Pittsburgh. On the other side this Pittsburgh offense cold get going tonight vs Lance Lynn, who has struggled vs them during the regular season, posting a 5.60 ERA in 5 starts, with 4 of the 5 starts putting up at least 8 runs. Let's also note that both starters have winning records in day starts, but also both heave Era's of 4+ in those day starts. This one should reach 7 with ease.
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BOSTON -140 over Tampa Bay: The Red Sox have been one of the best home teams all year and I feel that will continue here. Yes the Rays have Moore on the mound, but Lester has been solid this year overall and is 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA at Fenway. Lester has pitched well down the stretch, but Moore has not with a 5.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. He also has had control issues of late with 20 walk in his last 6 starts. Boston is the top seed and they will show it with a solid win vs the Rays ace here.

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Playersbet

World Series Future - Tampa Bay Rays +500

This Rays teams has impressed us all year…they just find a way to win. Everyone is really high on the Red Sox right now in the AL but we think they clicked a little to early to make a serious run. The Rays are starting to put it all together and whats a better time to do it then now. This team doesn’t have all of those fancy names like you see on these big market teams, they do not go out and sign the highest priced free agent available and they certainly do not draw a lot of attention to them selves. I bet you can ask the average baseball fan to name a handful of players off this Rays team and they will give you 1-2 names, 3 if they are lucky. Time after time this team has proven to us that they can win…I mean come on they had their backs against the walls 2 times so far in this post season 1st against the Rangers and 2nd against a red hot Cleveland team who won 10 straight, so its no fluke that this team knows how to win. The front rotation of this team is a force not to be messing with and we saw it last night as Alex Cobb completely shut down the Tribe. Maddon always seems to pull the right strings and really has this team believing in themselves. The Rays have won 10 of 12 games overall and have tons of momentum right now. If they can get past the Red Sox which we think they can in a 5 game series things will get a lot easier. At this price we can not pass it up.

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San Diego State vs. NevadaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Friday, PLAY UNDER on teams like Nevada, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, who are an average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play), against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 475 or more total yards a game in their last three contests. In the last 20 years, this college football system is 23-4, 85.2 percent and the average total score of these games has been 48.1.


Tampa Bay +134

Tampa Bay has been in playoff mode for several weeks now and are playing very good baseball. Ride the wave with the Rays today in Boston.

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Dave MathewsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah State vs. BYUFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU beat Utah State at home last year, 6-3. The Cougars win with defense as linebacker Kyle Van Noy is one of the best in the nation. He has 29 tackles, six tackles for loss and nine quarterback hurries. He'll be in Chuckie Keeton's grill all game. USC held the Utah State defense to just 14 points and they face another very good defense. BYU has a mediocre offense that will struggle to put up points on the road against a quality team. This screams under.

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Bob Balfe

Tampa Rays +120

Tampa is in full playoff mode while the Red Sox had a few days off and were not in desperation mode at the end of the season. Tampa is a good ball club and this is a business trip for them. They went into Texas and Cleveland and disposed of those teams with ease. Look for Tampa to steal game one. Take the Rays.


Atlanta Braves -110

The Braves are back against the wall in a must win game with a left hander on the mound. The Dodgers have not hit lefties that well this year and the Braves still are an excellent home team. Kershaw is a tough draw for any team home or away, but they have to get back to even tonight or this series will be all but over. Take Atlanta.


Oakland A's +105

Here is another team in Detroit that could not hit the ball the final weeks of the season. They are happy to be in the playoffs, but there is doubt going on in their minds. Oakland is one of those teams that all year could be in a 1-1 game and by the end of the inning its 12-1. This team is great at knocking opponents out of games with big crooked numbers innings. I think this is a very dangerous A’s team that can make a big playoff run. Take Oakland.

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Jeff Alexander

Utah State -4.5

Utah State is 15-2 ATS in all lined games since the start of last season, including 10-1 ATS as a favorite during this span. The Aggies are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against BYU. One of those covers was a 31-16 victory in 2010 the last time they hosted BYU. We very well could see a similar result tonight. Lay the number.

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Dave Price

Tampa Bay Rays +133

The Rays are showing value at this price as they enter Game 1 of their ALDS with momentum and confidence after notching three consecutive do-or-die wins on the road. While Lester has been great at home, Tampa Bay's Moore has been even better on the road. He's 10-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 road starts this season with the Rays winning 14 of these. Tampa Bay is 23-6 in his last 29 starts. He went 2-0 against Boston this season, limiting the Red Sox to three runs in 15 innings of work. The Red Sox have dropped five of Lester's last eight starts against the Rays, and he was tagged for four runs or more in half of those. The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Boston. Take Tampa Bay.

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Chris Jordan

I read two headlines the other night:

"Dodgers hurting, but confident entering NLDS," and, "Favored or not, Braves confident facing Dodgers."

Good to know both teams have confidence going into the postseason, right? Question is, whose talent rises above the confidence level and has the makings of a seven-game run if it gets that far? Personally, seeing what the Los Angeles Dodgers did yesterday offensively and with Clayton Kershaw on the hill, I know we're about to see some big things with Zack Greinke going in Game 2.

Greinke is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA lifetime against Atlanta. Though he is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in one Turner Field start, he did turn in seven scoreless innings to beat the Braves in Los Angeles.

And even though L.A. went 2-5 against Braves in 2013, that was long before the Dodgers' second-half surge that included that incredible run from late June into September, before things started leveling out. And quick disclaimer, yeah I know the Dodgers struggled even more (12-15) in September than did Atlanta (13-14).

The East-champion Braves watched the National League’s best record end up in St. Louis over the final weekend, so now the Braves get the West-champion Dodgers and their aces, Kershaw and Greinke. The Dodgers have seemingly already stolen homefield advantage, and now if they can go up 2-0 in Atlanta, they know they can wrap it up in Los Angeles.

I'm putting my money on the men in blue, who I believe are on a mission to get to the Fall Classic, where they fully expect to meet the Boston Red Sox. Take the Dodgers today and list Greinke

2♦ L.A. DODGERS

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Jeff Benton

Your Friday freebie is the Detroit Tigers to draw first blood in their best-of-five division series with the Oakland Athletics.

It really comes down to this for me...anytime I can get a guy that went 21-3 during the regular season with an ERA of 2.90 priced as a -120 favorite, I have to grab that value all night long.

Max Scherzer will oppose Oakland's 18-game winner, Bartolo Colon, and these two are actually starting versus each other for the third time this year.

Neither has been particularly dominant in the previous two meetings, as Detroit was a 7-6 winner at the end of August in the last meeting between the hurlers, while Oakland was a 4-3 winner in the first hook-up of the year back in April.

The Tigers made it all the way to the World Series last season, and have advanced to the ALCS in each of the last pair of October's. Going to side with Detroit to win the opener tonight versus the A's in a close one.

1♦ DETROIT

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Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the Oakland A's and Detroit Tigers to stay under the posted total with two studs on the mound.

I won't say the Tigers are "limping" into tonight's rematch of last year's ALDS between the Tigers and the A's, but they definitely aren't as healthy as they'd like to be.

Miguel Cabrera, the team's heart and soul (both offensively and even defensively) has been hurt much of the second half of the season and clearly won't be 100% for this series or the remainder of the playoffs... depending on how far the Tigers make it.

And with his offense in flux, the entire Tigers offense takes a huge hit. Then you add the fact that they're facing one of the best pitchers no one talks about in Bartolo Colon... and we have the recipe for a low-scoring game.

American League Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Tigers as the league's only 20-game winner and has had a lot of success against the A's in his career.

Scherzer was 1-0 in last year’s series with the A's while Colon wasn't quite as successful, but I believe he's a better pitcher this year than he was last year (and the numbers back me up).

These two pitchers have faced off against each other twice in 2013... and neither pitcher received a win or a loss in low-scoring affairs. Both were credited with a "no decision" and that's very likely again tonight.

Take the UNDER in tonight's Game 1 as your free play of the day.

3♦ OAKLAND-DETROIT UNDER

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Brad Wilton

My free play winner this Friday is the Dodgers and Braves to once again head Over the total in their playoff game at Turner Field.

Last night's game found its way Over the total, as the Dodgers hung 6 runs on the scoreboard to do the bulk of the damage on Thursday night, and I expect their offense will do the bulk of the damage again today, as Atlanta starter Mike Minor ended the regular season in a rut.

Minor went 0-4 over his final 5 regular season efforts with an ERA of 3.94.

3 of Minors last 4 starts did land Over the total, and his 3.62 ERA for the season at Turner Field saw 10 of his 16 home assignments play Over the posted price.

Zack Greinke has been blistering on the road his last 10 away starts, going 7-0 with a 1.95 ERA. After getting just one run off of Clayton Kershaw last night, I am sure the Braves will be pressing a little at the plate tonight.

If Atlanta can get us 2 runs, I feel confident Los Angeles can take us the rest of the way.

Game One was an Over, look for Game Two to also be an Over.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS-ATLANTA OVER

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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2* St. Louis -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each of these starters has pitched great down the stretch.  Cole finished the season on a 4-0 run with 1.38 ERA posting 34Ks in 26 IP.  In 7 road starts, Pittsburgh has gone 5-2 where Cole has posted a 2.38 ERA.  Lynn finished strong as well.  In his final 4 starts, Lynn twirled a 1.09 ERA with 30Ks in 24 2/3 IP.  St. Louis won 12/16 Lynn home starts where he had a 2.82 ERA.  A note of caution is that in 5 starts vs. the Pirates, Lynn has a 5.60 ERA.  The real basis for the selection comes with the experience edge that St. Louis has in post-season play against a Pittsburgh team making their first playoff appearance in 20 years. Then there is the matter of the home field where St. Louis has gone 55-27.  Finally, we must consider current form which shows St. Louis on runs of 29-13, 17-5, and 7-0.  St. Louis is recently 21-3 on this field including 5-0 vs. the Pirates in which they outscored the Bucs 32-14.
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2* LA Dodgers -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Choosing the current form of Greinke vs. that of Minor to overcome Atlanta’s strong home field.  The Braves have the best home record in baseball this season at 56-25.  Even with last night’s loss, Atlanta is still 25-11 on this field.  The Dodgers made a major statement by winning game 1 at this site.  They could drive a nail in the Braves coffin with another top performance by Greinke.  LA won 22/28 Greinke starts this year where he had a 2.63 ERA.  Greinke pitched his best down the stretch posting a 1.58 ERA in his last 12 starts.  Formerly known as a “homer”, in his last 10 road starts, Greinke went 7-0 with a 1.95 ERA.  In his lone outing vs. Atlanta this season, Greinke allowed just 4 hits in 7 IP of a 5-0 LA victory.  Minor’s current form is a bit troubling.  The Braves have lost his last 5 starts where he has gone 0-4 with a 3.94 ERA.
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2* Tampa Bay +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What a turnaround for Boston.  Could the change in managers from Valentine to Farrell really have been responsible for a 28 game improvement to a 97-65 record, tied with St. Louis for the best mark in MLB?  It has resulted in Boston’s first post-season appearance in 3 years.  Aside from Farrell creating a far healthier atmosphere in the clubhouse, must credit the Boston bats that were the best in baseball.  While they did finish on a 23-10 run, they stumbled home at 5-6 losing their last 2 games.  Then there is the matter of the Boston bullpen, the worst of all playoff participants. The Red Sox had a 124 bullpen index for the season (MLB average of 140) which was even worse in the last 3 months at 112.  Lester has pitched well of late where he has gone 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA.  While pitching from this mound, Boston has gone 11-2 where Lester has posted a 3.09 ERA.  The Red Sox did capture the season series from the Rays posting a 12-7 series record.  Yet, I am choosing to favor the momentum that is Tampa Bay.  The Rays finished 15-5 and 10-2.  That included road victories at Toronto to make the play in game, a road victory at Texas to qualify for the Wild Card and a road win at Cleveland to set up this playoff series.  While the letdown is always possible, the Rays have had 2 days to sober up following their celebration.  TBay won 21/27 Moore starts including 14/16 away where Moore had a 2.59 ERA.  Moore finished strong going 9-1 in his last 13 starts.  A vote for the Tampa Bay momentum to continue behind their best starter.
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2* Oakland +110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Following a mid-season surge, the Tigers division lead was never threatened.  They closed out their pursuers with an 11-4 September surge before dropping the last 3 games of the regular season.  Detroit won 25/32 Scherzer starts in which he posted a 2.90 ERA.  That was even better on the road where in 16 starts Scherzer had a 2.28 ERA.  Oakland counters with Colon.  In 30 Colon starts, Oakland went 21-9 with Colon authoring a 2.65 ERA that was nearly identical to his work from this mound where Colon had a 2.58 ERA in 16 starts. Unlike 2012, Oakland did not have to make a late season surge to capture the division title.  This year, they had the division title well in hand yet still finished on positive runs of 24-9 and 7-3.  Yet, Oakland well remembers losing this playoff series to Detroit last season 3 games to 2.  With the more positive momentum and a home field where Oakland is 39-18 of late, we take a value home price with the As.

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Sc Live Dogs

Oakland Athletics +112

The Athletics seem to have been waiting for this Game 1 of the ALDS all season. The O.co Coliseum will be rocking on Friday for Game 1 against this Tigers team. Both teams will be coming off of a four day layoff but we will look for the Athletics to come in with the early advantage playing at home as well as playing the better ball in their last week of the regular season. The Tigers come into Fridays game as losers of their last 5 of 7 games while averaging 2 RPG and allowing 2.6 RPG which is off par by many standards for them as they average 4.9 RPG and allow just 3.9 RPG on the season. The A's come into Fridays game as winners of their last 6 of 9 games while averaging 6.3 RPG and allowing 3.9 RPG during that stretch. The Athletics will be pitching Bartolo Colon who comes in with a 0.90 era over his last 20 innings of work where he allowed 15 hits on 3 BBs & 23 Ks. Colon faced this Tigers team twice in 2013 where he allowed a combined 4 runs through 12 innings of work on 0 BBs & 6 Ks. Colon comes into Fridays start after 6 days of rest where he seems to be sharp after the layoff during the season. On 6 or more days of rest, Colon carried a 4-1 record to match his 2.95 era over over 36 innings of work where he allowed just 6 BBs on 23 Ks. The Tigers will be pitching Max Scherzer who very well may win the Cy Young Award. Scherzer comes in with a 1.80 era over his last 20 innings of work against the Twins, White Sox & Royals. We have to wonder how sharp Scherzer will be in this game after an 8 day layoff for him and after starts against below average teams. The layoff may play a larger role than most realize as Scherzer does carry a 3.86 era on 6 or more days of rest and Fridays start will be the longest layoff he is coming off of all season. Scherzer faced the A's twice this season where he allowed a combined 6 runs through 11 innings of work on 2 HRs. The bullpens in this series should play a large role and the advantage does lean towards the Athletics with a 2.99 home era compared to the Tigers road era of 3.65. Play on the Athletics at +112.

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Harry Bondi

NEVADA (+6) over San Diego State

This line is a huge overlay and we'll gladly take the points. Nevada's offense, led by QB Cody Fajardo, is clicking on all cylinders entering this game, including topping the 40-point barrier in last week's come-from-behind victory over Air Force. In that game, the Wolfpack offense rushed for more than 200 yards and put up almost 600 yards of offense and will have similar success against this Aztec defense that has major problems in the secondary and is allowing 34 points per game. Take the touchdown head start!

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