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MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, September 30

MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, September 30

TAMPA BAY (91 - 71) at TEXAS (91 - 71) - 8:05 PM


Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 11-3 (+8.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons.
PEREZ is 9-2 (+8.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 99-84 (-21.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 10-13 (-13.9 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 71-73 (-15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 13-25 (-15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 4-3 (+0.9 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

DAVID PRICE vs. TEXAS since 1997
PRICE is 1-7 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 5.57 and a WHIP of 1.429.
His team's record is 4-7 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.5 units)

No recent starts.

Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Tampa Bay is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games at home

Tampa Bay at Texas
Price: Tampa Bay 46-30 SU when the money line is -100 to -150
Perez: Texas 25-35 SU after 3 straight games where they committed no errors

AL play-in game

Price is 1-1, 2.73 in his last four starts; he didn't pitch against the Rangers this year-- he allowed eight runs in 10.2 IP in two starts against them LY.

Perez is 1-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; he allowed two runs in five IP in a relief appearance vs Rays LY, only time they've seen him.

Rangers are 32-18 vs lefty starters, Tampa Bay is 29-23.

Texas just went 7-0 vs Astros/Angels on a homestand to get here, scoring 46 runs in those games; they had lost seven in a row at home before that. Rangers are 4-3 vs Tampa Bay this year, winning two of three here in early April.

Rays are 8-2 in last ten games but lost Friday/Saturday and almost blew a 7-0 lead Sunday; they've won seven of their last ten on the road.

Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Texas games, 4-1 in last five Tampa tilts.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, September 30

Rays at Rangers: What Bettors Need to Know

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (+105, 7.5)

It is a must-win scenario for the Tampa Bay Rays and host Texas Rangers on Monday if they wish to advance to a second must-win situation. The two teams tied for the second American League wild-card spot and will break the tie for the right to meet the Cleveland Indians in Wednesday’s one-game round. Texas has won seven straight games and Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 10 contests.

Rays ace David Price starts against Rangers rookie Martin Perez and Texas announced that power-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz will be activated for Monday’s game. Cruz’s 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs ended Sunday and he has fared well against Price, going 6-for-12 with two homers against the left-hander. Price is fired up about getting the ball in the tiebreaker. “This is a moment that I want to be in,” he said. “I want to be able to relish the moment and go out there and have fun.”

LINE: Texas opened as a +119 home underdog and has been bet down to +105, taking Tampa Bay down from -129 to -116. The total has stayed steady at 7.5 runs.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s, clear skies and winds blowing south at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays LH David Price (9-8, 3.39 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Martin Perez (10-5, 3.55)

Price didn’t face the Rangers this season but has traditionally struggled against them, going 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA in eight career outings. After being sensational in July and August, Price was 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five September starts. He has pitched at least seven innings in four of his last six turns.

The 22-year-old Perez won seven of his last nine decisions as one of Texas’ most-reliable starters over the second half of the season. He didn’t face the Rays this season and his lone career outing against them was a five-inning stint last season in which he gave up two runs and seven hits. Perez has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his last 11 starts.


* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Texas.
* Under is 5-2 in Prices last seven starts vs. Rangers.
* Rays are 2-5 in Prices last seven starts vs. Rangers.


1. Texas defeated Tampa Bay in the AL Division Series in 2010 and 2011 en route to back-to-back World Series appearances.

2. The Rangers earned the right to host the play-in game because they won the regular-season series 4-3. The teams split a four-game series in mid-September.

3. Rangers OF Alex Rios is batting .435 with two homers and seven RBIs in 23 career at-bats against Price.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, September 30

Rays, behind David Price, favored vs. Rangers in AL play-in game
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS - The Rays and Rangers will square off in game 163 tonight in Arlington, where a pair of lefties will battle for his team’s right to play at Cleveland in Wednesday’s AL Wild Card game. David Price is a -125 road favorite over Martin Perez, which at first glance may seem low, but when looking deeper, you’ll notice that Price has had all kinds of issues with the Rangers over his career.

In eight regular-season starts against Texas, Price is 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA. And even though this isn’t a post-season game, it’s fair to mention that Price is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in three post-season starts. In big games, Price has struggled, and this is his biggest game of the year.

Over his last four outings, Price has allowed no more than two runs per game, but the Rays have won only two of his last six starts. The best thing about Price over his 11 starts in August and September is that he’s served up only two homers. He hasn’t faced the Rangers this season, but by virtue of the Rangers winning the season series, 4-3, this game is being played in Arlington.

The Rays made things more difficult than they had to be by stumbling at Toronto over the weekend. They had won seven straight before losing Friday and Saturday at Toronto, and then barely held onto a 7-0 lead Sunday that turned into a 7-6 win.

The Rangers come into this game on fire, having won seven straight. They started September in first place, but then proceeded to lose 12 of 14 games. However, it was a four-game set at Tampa Bay that kind of got the Rangers back on track. They split that series, then lost two of three at Kansas City, before sweeping the final two series at home against the Astros and Angels.

The Rangers’ season now rests on the left arm of Perez, who has been steady all season, but didn’t do anything to help the team’s September slide. His 7-3 win on Wednesday against the Astros stopped a three-game Texas losing streak behind him. But from July 31 - Sept. 3, Texas won all seven of his starts. This will be his first start against the Rays this season. Last year, he gave up two runs in five innings to Tampa in a 6-0 loss.

Because of Price’s knack for coming up short in big games, we’re siding with the Rangers tonight. Texas also gets a big boost with Nelson Cruz being activated for tonight’s game after serving a 50-game suspension. Cruz hit 27 home runs this season, including one during his last game on Aug. 3.

Selection: Rangers +115

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, September 30

Rangers, Rays clash

TAMPA BAY RAYS (91-71) at TEXAS RANGERS (91-71) Line: Tampa Bay -117 & 7.5 under -115

Despite winning eight of their final 10 regular-season games, both the Rays and Rangers still have to square off against one another Monday night to see who will earn the second Wild Card spot in the American League.
The winner of this tiebreaker game will head to Cleveland to face the Indians who won the Wild Card with 10 straight victories to close out the season. This contest features of pair of left-handers, ace David Price (9-8, 3.39 ERA) for Tampa Bay and Texas 22-year-old southpaw Martin Perez (10-5, 3.55 ERA). The Rays had won seven straight games heading into the final series of the year at Toronto, but lost two straight before a tight 7-6 victory on Sunday put them in this game. The Rangers needed to win seven straight contests just to reach this spot, and they did so in dominating fashion by outscoring the seven opponents by a 46-19 margin. They certainly have the advantage at home, going 46-35 (.568) in Arlington this season, and also have history on their side, as the home team is 5-1 in one-game tiebreakers since 1995. Tampa Bay is 40-41 on the road, but it has won seven of its past 10 away tilts. Texas holds a slight 4-3 advantage in the season series, including 2-1 at home. In the past three seasons, the Rangers have won 16 of 29 meetings, including an 8-6 record in Arlington. Texas All-Star OF Nelson Cruz is eligible to return from his PED suspension for this game, and he is expected to start. Tampa Bay CF Desmond Jennings hasn't started since Sept. 22 because of a hamstring injury, and is questionable for this contest.

David Price (1.11 WHIP, 5th in AL) is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, and has put together another strong season despite his team's 13-13 record when he takes the mound. He's actually been much better on the road this season, going 7-3 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 95.1 innings (8.3 K/9). The left-hander has held each of his past four opponents to exactly two runs, going 1-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in these four starts. However, facing the Rangers has not been kind to the lefty over the years. In 11 career starts against them, he is 1-7 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. This includes three career postseason matchups, all of which were in Tampa Bay, when he was 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. As bad as these numbers are, Price has been completely shellacked at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, going 1-2 with a 10.26 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in his four career starts at this stadium. Including the postseason, the current Texas players that have hurt Price the most are OF Alex Rios (.435 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI in 23 AB), OF Nelson Cruz (.429 BA, 3 HR, 5 RBI in 21 AB), SS Elvis Andrus (.407 BA, 4 RBI, 5 walks in 27 AB) and 3B Adrian Beltre (.346 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBI in 26 AB). 2B Ian Kinsler is the rare Rangers player that has not been successful off Price, hitting just .222 in 27 at-bats. If Price gets into trouble again at this ballpark, he has a quality bullpen to rely on, as Rays relievers are 27-24 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season. However, those numbers are considerably worse on the road where they are 7-15 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Perez (1.35 WHIP) has led his team to a 12-7 record this season, including 8-3 in his past 11 starts where he is personally 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 6.2 K/9. Perez has been better at home this season despite a 3-3 record, as he's produced a 3.18 ERA in eight starts in Arlington. This includes a strong performance on Wednesday when he allowed just three runs in seven innings to the Astros and recorded a career-high-tying eight strikeouts. The left-hander has never started against Tampa Bay, but he did throw five innings of relief against them on Sept. 9, 2012. In that contest, he allowed two runs (both solo homers) on seven hits, while walking one and fanning three. Perez has faced just four current Rays hitters in his career. OF Matt Joyce and 3B Evan Longoria are both 1-for-2 off Perez, while C Jose Molina and 2B Ben Zobrist are both 0-for-2. The youngster has averaged 6.3 innings per start, but the Rangers won't hesitate to go to their excellent bullpen early if Perez can't handle the biggest game of his life. Texas relievers are a whopping 35-18 this season (.660) with a 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 46 saves in 57 chances (81%). These numbers have been even more impressive at home, where they have a 22-7 record (.759) with a 2.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

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