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Sunday Night Football Patriots vs. Falcons

Sunday Night Football Patriots vs. Falcons

NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road   
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home

New England at Atlanta

New England: 16-6 ATS away after allowing 6 points or less
Atlanta: 3-16 ATS off BB games gaining 375+ total yards

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Re: Sunday Night Football Patriots vs. Falcons

NFL Week 4

Patriots (3-0) @ Falcons (1-2) —
After facing two rookie QBs and Josh Freeman (benched this week) in their first three games, Pats step up in class facing BC alum Ryan here. NE got young WR Thompson involved with two TD catches last week, but in last two games, Pats are still just 10-33 on third down, after being 11-20 in opener at Buffalo. Patriots allowed only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, but since ’07, Falcons are 24-11-1 as home favorites- Smith is 19-4 vs spread in game following a loss. Atlanta butchered end of last week’s game in Miami, missing a 35-yard FG when up 23-20 late- they had only two TDs in five red zone drives, while Miami was 3-3. Patriots are 22-15-1 vs spread coming off a win, 6-2 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less points, but just 3-6 vs NFC foes. Falcons are 23-12-1 under Smith when spread is 3 or less, but they’re already 0-2 in such games this season. Three of seven remaining unbeaten teams are underdogs this week.

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Re: Sunday Night Football Patriots vs. Falcons

Sunday Night Football

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2) Line & Total: Atlanta -2.5 & 50.5
Opening Line & Total: Pick 'em & 49.5

The Falcons look to get back to .500 while the Patriots try to stay undefeated when the two teams square off at Georgia Dome on Sunday night.

The last time New England and Atlanta played was in September of 2009 where the Patriots held a 445 to 257 yards advantage and prevailed 26-10. New England was a 4-point underdog in that game and was able to win-and-cover for the third straight time against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed 296 passing YPG this season (25th in NFL), which doesn't bode well against a Tom Brady-led offense that could have TE Rob Gronkowski (back) for the first time this season. However, Atlanta also has a potent air attack (289 passing YPG, 7th in NFL) and will provide the first real test for New England's suspect secondary, which has faced three of the league's worst starting quarterbacks (Josh Freeman, Geno Smith and EJ Manuel). The Patriots are 39-16 ATS (71%) as an underdog under head coach Bill Belichick, but the Falcons are is 8-1 ATS in September home games under head coach Mike Smith. Although New England is 14-4 ATS (78%) coming off of a Belichick-coached game where his team allowed six points or less, Atlanta is 19-5 ATS (79%) after a loss under Smith.

The Patriots are 3-0 SU to start the season, but their offense hasn't played well at all, gaining just 4.5 yards per play (3rd-fewest in NFL) and scoring only 19.7 PPG (22nd in league). New England is coming off a 23-3 victory over the Buccaneers in which Tom Brady's receivers finally provided him with some competent play. Aaron Dobson had seven catches in the game for 52 yards while Kenbrell Thompkins was the recipient of two red-zone touchdown passes. WR Julian Edelman also chipped in with seven receptions for 44 yards, as he's tied for the NFL lead with 27 catches this year. Brady was 25-of-36 for 225 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the game, marking his 51st straight game with at least one touchdown pass. Many of those touchdown passes during his streak have gone to TE Rob Gronkowski who has an incredible 39 TD catches in 43 career games. The Patriots rushing offense really sputtered in Week 2 versus the Jets (24 carries for 54 yards), but chewed up 156 rushing yards as a team versus the Bucs, led by LeGarrette Blount's 65 yards on 14 carries and Brandon Bolden's 51 yards on just three rushing attempts in his season debut. One the defensive end, New England was near perfect, allowing just 323 yards of total offense against a weak Buccaneers team. For the season, the Patriots have allowed just 11.3 PPG (T-2nd in NFL) and 309 total YPG (T-8th in league), while forcing an impressive seven turnovers. With the offense beginning to get healthier and the Patriots still undefeated, it's interesting to see just how good this team will be in a couple of weeks when Gronkowski and top WR Danny Amendola (groin) return healthy.

Atlanta's defense has really struggled this season, allowing 24.7 PPG (T-19th in NFL) and 375 total YPG (23rd in league). They defense hasn't been able to get stops when it has needed to, both on third down (48% conversion rate, 5th-worst in NFL) and in the red zone (70% efficiency, T-23rd in league). Without RB Steven Jackson, who is out for a month with a thigh injury, the Falcons' backfield duo of RBs Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling was very productive last week, combining for 139 yards on 29 carries (4.8 YPC). Snelling also caught four passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. QB Matt Ryan went 23-of-38 for 231 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the game. WR Julio Jones continues to give opposing defenses nightmares as he caught nine passes for 115 yards. He now has a league-high-tying 27 receptions for an NFL-best 373 yards and two touchdowns on the year. Jones also leads the league with 194 yards after catch, which has been key because fellow WR Roddy White is still dealing with a high-ankle sprain that has really limited his usually stellar production. TE Tony Gonzalez is also off to a slow start with just 11 catches for 93 yards and one touchdown, a big drop-off from his 2012 season when he caught 93 passes for 930 yards and eight scores.

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Re: Sunday Night Football Patriots vs. Falcons

Sunday Night Football Betting: Patriots at Falcons

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 48.5)

The New England Patriots were able to take advantage of some weak competition to begin the season and finally appeared to get something out of their young receiving corps last week. The Patriots and those receivers will take a big step up in competition when they visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. The Falcons are coming off a last-minute road loss to another AFC East team and are trying to even their record.

Atlanta won its first eight games en route to a 13-3 regular season in 2012 but is off to a slower start offensively this season. New England can relate to the offensive slowdown, though its issues are based more on roster turnover and injuries. The Patriots are hopeful that some of those injury concerns can be relieved this week with the impending returns of wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

LINE: This game opened as a pick and is currently Falcons -2.5. The total opened at 49 and is currently 48.5.

Amendola (groin) and Gronkowski (forearm/back) have both been limited participants in practice this week and are listed as questionable for Sunday. Quarterback Tom Brady made good use of Amendola in the season opener but is making do with rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins over the last two weeks, and the two finally stepped up in a 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. The offensive slowdown is putting more pressure on the defense, which is allowing an average of 11.3 points and is doing particularly well against the pass thanks to corners Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-2): Quarterback Matt Ryan is dealing with his own banged-up receiving corps, though Julio Jones (knee) and Roddy White (high ankle sprain) have yet to miss a game. Atlanta is opening up a three-game homestand with the Patriots after suffering each of its losses on the road, including last week’s 27-23 setback at Miami in which Ryan and the offense stalled inside the Dolphins’ red zone twice in the fourth quarter. The Falcons are allowing 296 yards passing defensively but are getting strong production from end Osi Umenyiora, who was part of a unit with the New York Giants that gave Brady and the Patriots plenty of trouble in two Super Bowls.


* Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 4.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Falcons last five games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 road games.


1. Brady is second in NFL history with a passing TD in 51 straight games (Drew Brees, 54).

2. Atlanta RB Stephen Jackson (hamstring) is expected to miss the game.

3. New England starting RT Sebastian Vollmer (sprained foot) sat out practice on Wednesday and Thursday, leaving him doubtful for Sunday.

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