NFL Trends Week 4

NFL Trends Week 4

PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) vs. MINNESOTA (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


SEATTLE (3 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


ARIZONA (1 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 3) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM


Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


CHICAGO (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


NY JETS (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2013, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


WASHINGTON (0 - 3) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-65 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 0) - 9/29/2013, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 0) - 9/30/2013, 8:40 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Re: NFL Trends Week 4

NY GIANTS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Giants

CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 12 games   
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games   
Houston is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games   
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games

ARIZONA vs. TAMPA BAY

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay   
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE

Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games   
Jacksonville is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

PITTSBURGH vs. MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games   
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

BALTIMORE vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo   
Buffalo is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

NY JETS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Jets last 10 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee   
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

PHILADELPHIA vs. DENVER
Philadelphia is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games   
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games

WASHINGTON vs. OAKLAND
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Oakland   
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games

DALLAS vs. SAN DIEGO
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road   
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

NEW ENGLAND vs. ATLANTA
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road   
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home

MIAMI vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games   
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Miami

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Re: NFL Trends Week 4

Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS away in the first month of the season
Minnesota: 31-15 Under away off a loss

Baltimore at Buffalo
Baltimore: 17-3 Under off BB ATS wins as a favorite
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 18-8 Under vs. conference opponents

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Jacksonville: 3-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Seattle at Houston

Seattle: 3-18 ATS off a home win by 21+ points
Houston: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Arizona at Tampa Bay
Arizona: 9-2 Under in the first half of the season
Tampa Bay: 24-11 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less

Chicago at Detroit
Chicago: 0-8 ATS off a non-conference game
Detroit: 15-6 Over as a favorite

NY Giants at Kansas City
NY Giants: 17-5 Under away off BB games allowing 25+ points
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite

NY Jets at Tennessee
NY Jets: 0-7 ATS off an Over
Tennessee: 26-13 Over off a win by 3 points or less

Dallas at San Diego
Dallas: 8-25 ATS away off BB Unders
San Diego: 12-2 Over off an Under

Washington at Oakland
Washington: 28-14 Under off 3+ ATS losses
Oakland: 7-20 ATS at home off a division road loss

Philadelphia at Denver
Philadelphia: 2-10 ATS off a home loss
Denver: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

New England at Atlanta
New England: 16-6 ATS away after allowing 6 points or less
Atlanta: 3-16 ATS off BB games gaining 375+ total yards

Miami at New Orleans
Miami: 11-2 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
New Orleans: 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

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Re: NFL Trends Week 4

2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

Thursday, September 26

San Francisco SERIES: 1-5 L6... 10-0 w/division revenge vs opp off BB SU losses
ST LOUIS SERIES: 3-0 L3H... 1-5 SU Thursday
      
Sunday, September 29

Pittsburgh 1-7 as dogs vs > 500 opp... 1-7 vs non div opp off SU fav loss... 1-4 GM 4
MINNESOTA 1-5 off DD ATS win vs non div opp... 3-6 all-time vs AFC N
      
Baltimore 7-1 off SU dog win vs < .500 opp... 2-9 as RF's < 7 pts off BB SU wins
BUFFALO 5-1 vs AFC N...1-4 ATS L5 GM 4 1-6 VS .600 > opp
      
Cincinnati 3-7 GM 4... 3-7-2 L12 vs Div
CLEVELAND SERIES: 3-1 L4 H... 4-1 GM 4
      
Indianapolis 0-5 A vs opp off BB SU losses... 2-6 A off A win vs opp off SUATS loss
JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 3-1 L4... 5-0 after allowing 35 > pts
      
Seattle 1-7 A off BB SU wins... 1-6 before Colts... 1-4 GM 4
HOUSTON 5-0 GM 4 ... host 6-1-1 vs NFC W
      
Arizona 1-6 vs NFC S opp off SU loss ... 1-4 GM 4
TAMPA BAY 5-2 GM 4... 2-9 SU Off 3 losses exact
      
Chicago SERIES: 0-3 L3 A... 0-10 ATS off DD SU win + score 28 > pts
DETROIT 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS off A win... 10-3 GM 4 w/revenge
      
NY Giants SERIES: 7-0 L7... 4-1 GM 4
KANSAS CITY 4-0 off SU win vs non-conf opp off SU loss... 5-1 after Thursday game
      
NY Jets SERIES: 6-1 L7... 5-1 A vs AFC S
TENNESSEE 0-6 H Off H win... 2-5 H vs AFC E
      
Dallas 9-3 L12G vs AFC ... 0-5 GM 4
SAN DIEGO 13-2-1 H vs non-conf opp ... 4-1 GM 4
      
Washington 4-1 GM 4... 0-8 as favs 4 > pts vs <.500 opp... 1-6 before bye week
OAKLAND SERIES: 1-3 L4 ... 4-0 after allow 35 > pts vs opp off BB SU losses ... 0-5 GM 4
      
Philadelphia 0-5 before NY Giants ... 1-7 as non-conf dog 9 < vs .500 > opp
DENVER SERIES: 3-0 L3... 1-9 as favs > 6 pts vs < .500 opp G12 or less... 1-6 vs opp off BB SU losses
      
New England 7-0 non-conf favs 6 < pts vs opp off BB SU wins ... 5-0 GM 4
ATLANTA SERIES: 0-3 L3... 1-4 GM 4
      
Monday, September 30

Miami 1-6 off 3 wins exact, last as a dog... 2-9 L11 Mondays
NEW ORLEANS 11-1 as non div HF vs opp off SU win ... 4-1 GM 4
      
ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

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Re: NFL Trends Week 4

StatFox Super Situations

NFL NY GIANTS at KANSAS CITY

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

NFL NY JETS at TENNESSEE

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (NY JETS) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers 34-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.8% 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

NFL CHICAGO at DETROIT

Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total with a turnover margin of +1.5 /game or better on the season, after a game where they committed no turnovers 59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )

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Re: NFL Trends Week 4

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Colts are 13-0-1 ATS since Dec 15, 2002 as a road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS since Oct 19, 2008 when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

Saints TE Jimmy Graham is 9-0 ATS since 2011 after a home win where he had at least 60 receiving yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Patriots are 15-0 ATS since 2002 on the road after a win as a favorite in which they failed to get into the end zone on at least three separate red zone attempts.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

Winless teams which are at least 7.5 point home dogs are 43-25-2 ATS and 44-25-1 OU. Active on Jacksonville.

NFL O/U TREND:

The Ravens are 0-11 OU since January 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

The New York Jets stumbled into a Week 1 win against Tampa Bay and then four days later, hung around to get the cover at New England. After beating Buffalo in Week 3 it’s fair to say New York (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) is one of the surprise teams of 2013. The Jets have a Monday game vs. the Falcons on-deck and small road dogs in this spot have produced 8 overs and 4 unders the past five seasons.

Non-divisional road teams in this range who are riding high off a win and gearing up for a big primetime contest next week are 40-22-1 O/U (65-percent) when the total is 36 points or greater:

The home team is not overlooking the Jets and the line is tight enough that both teams see this as a legitimate chance to get a win. The Titans (2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) have held two of three opponents to fewer than 20 points this year but in 2012 they accomplished that feat just three times. With a few books still offering 39.5 we’re still getting fair value on this total and as each team scraps for its third ‘W’ look at backing the Jets and Titans OVER 39.5 points.

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NFL Week 4 Trends & Angles
Insiderangles.com

All Teams - General Angles

Play the 'over' in September games if a team went 'under' in its last two games (82-53-1, 60.7%): Bettors are quite impressionable early in the season and they tend to overreact if a team has the same result two weeks in a row. This applies to teams coming off of consecutive 'unders', as bettors may underrate the offenses or overrate the defenses of these teams based on two results that might be entirely due to variance, something that the oddsmakers adjust to as well. Qualifying 'overs': San Francisco at St. Louis (Thursday), Arizona at Tampa Bay, Baltimore at Buffalo, Dallas at San Diego, Chicago at Detroit, N.Y. Giants at Kansas City, New England at Atlanta and Miami at New Orleans (Monday).

Play against September home favorites coming off an ATS loss (82-55-8, 59.9% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following an ATS loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Qualifiers: New England +1 at Atlanta and Arizona +3 at Tampa Bay.

Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game (90-61-9, 59.6% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team. Qualifiers: Chicago +2½ and N.Y. Jets +3½.

Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games

Play the 'over' in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (59-33-1, 64.1%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going 'over', and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go 'over' in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position. Qualifying 'overs': Baltimore at Buffalo, Chicago at Detroit, Philadelphia at Denver, Indianapolis at Jacksonville, New England at Atlanta, Seattle at Houston and Miami at New Orleans (Monday).

Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (49-31-7, 61.2% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifiers: Detroit -2½ and Atlanta -1.

Play against Good Teams in September coming off of an ATS loss (70-50-4, 58.3% ATS): Bettors are usually more forgiving when a Good Team fails to cover the spread than when a Bad Team fails to do so, as they believe the Good Teams have a better chance to bounce back stronger next game. However, a lot of times the team is simply not as good as it was the previous year, and the oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust to that. Qualifiers: St. Louis +3 (Thursday), New England +1 and Seattle -3.

Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games

Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (114-79-12, 59.1% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: Arizona +3, N.Y. Jets +3½ and Philadelphia +10½.

Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (61-38-3, 61.6% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win. Qualifiers: Chicago +2½ and Arizona +3.

Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (52-26-4, 66.7% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration. Qualifier: Arizona +3.

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