NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
NFL Streaks, Tips, Notes
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Undefeated Chicago Bears try to increase their early NFC North lead when they visit Detroit Lions on Sunday. Chicago’s defense has done a good job plugging up the run (88.7) but the Bears have been vulnerable to the pass giving up 12.9 yards per completion for 294.3 yards/game with 5 majors. Not the best news against a Lions quad airing out 300 plus yards/game, 13.1 yards/completion. Consider a Play-Against Chicago knowing Bears have many betting demons to conquer in this one. Bears are 3-12-1 ATS as a road underdog after allowing => 200 passing yards the previous game, 4-10 ATS after a win by => 17 points the previous game, 8-12 ATS vs the division in September, 1-3 ATS on the road after a road win as a favorite and a 1-4-1 ATS slide vs Lions.
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
Chip Kelly's offense struggled against an AFC West team for the second-straight week, this time suffering a 26-16 loss to the Kansas Chiefs. Issues on Eagles offense yes, but there are plenty other issues to solve. Penalties, 15 the past two games for 127 yards, pass protection giving up a whopping 661 passing yards over the two losses. Making things somewhat more difficult for the Eagles maligned secondary, they're up against Broncos air-attack piloted by Peyton Manning chucking 1143 yards/game for 12 TD's no interceptions. The betting market giving Philadelphia little chance have opened Broncos 11 point favorite. A dicey number for Broncos backers as Double Digit favorites are just 1-4-1 ATS this season. Then again, Philadelphia backers have their own set of negative betting number to overcome. The Eagles are on an 0-5 ATS skid vs the AFC West, 1-7 ATS slide the past eight. Eagles are also 3-7 ATS as underdogs, 0-3-1 ATS in Week-Four, 4-10 ATS off a loss as a home favorite, 4-11-1 ATS off a 10 point defeat.
NY Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
The Kasas City Chiefs have much more of a pulse than the New York Giants. After three games the Chiefs lead by Alex Smith are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) and have yet to turn the ball over, no interceptions, no fumbles. On the other side, Giants are 0-3 SU/ATS and have 4 fumbles while Manning has tossed 8 interception. Giants who are now 3-8 SU/ATS since week-9 of last year and who can't run the ball, can't protect Manning (11 sacks) may not have hit rock bottom yet. Head coach Andy Reid who had a ton of success vs Giants his last five years with Eagles (8-2 SU/ATS) will have Chiefs primed. Expect Chiefs to move to 11-4 ATS in Non-Conference games, G-Men to fall to 4-9-1 ATS vs Non-Conference foes, 0-7 ATS in road games.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
NFL Week 4
49ers (1-2) @ Rams (1-2) — Both sides desperate after losing last two games; Rams looked lost in falling behind 21-0/24-0 in games at Atlanta/Dallas, after they rallied back from down 11 to nip Arizona in opener. 49ers scored one TD on 21 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs, completing 26-55 passes in losses by 26-20 points- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 divisional games, 4-0 as favorite of 3 or less points under Harbaugh. Rams are 10-5 as underdogs under Fisher, but 0-2 this year; they went 1-0-1 SU vs 49ers LY, after going 1-7 in previous eight series games, but SF has lost two of last three visits here. Home teams in divisional games are 11-4 vs spread so far this season. Rams are protecting Bradford better but WRs are not making plays and running game (57 ypg) has been non-existent. Long trip on short week for 49er team whose two best defensive players are either missing: Smith (alcohol rehab), or banged-up: Willis (wrist).
Steelers (0-3) vs Vikings (0-3) (London) — What did the British do to deserve this? Steelers are horrible, with no takeaways (-9) in first three games; they’ve run ball for only 52 ypg behind banged-up OL and Big Ben can’t win games by himself (had two turnovers returned for TDs by Bears Sunday night), despite passing for 379 yards. Pitt is 10-35 on 3rd down and has allowed ten sacks (-7). Vikings are also 0-3, but last two losses were by total of five points, as Browns’ backup QB Hoyer won Metrodome opener with last-second TD pass last week. Minnesota allowed 34-31-31 points in first three games, giving up 11 TDs on 38 drives- they gave up 24 first half points in each of last two games, including TD on a fake FG last week. Not many teams have four takeaways in consecutive games and don’t win either one. AFC teams are off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; Steelers are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs NFC teams, Vikings are 11-21-1 vs AFC teams last 8+ years.
Ravens (2-1) @ Bills (1-2) — Baltimore’s defense may be better without Lewis/Reed; they allowed no TDs on 22 drives in last two games, after getting riddled by Denver juggernaut in opener. Trailing 6-3 with 3:00 left in half last week, Ravens scored TDs on defense/special teams in 1:54 span to grab control of game vs good Houston team. Buffalo scored 21-24-20 points in first three games with rookie QB, so they can’t be too displeased; their two home games were decided by total of three points. Bills covered five of last seven tries as home dog (2-0 this year) and have run ball for average of 135 ypg, despite not getting much from Spiller (knee). Since 2007, Ravens are 4-11 as non-divisional road favorites (4-6 under Harbaugh); they’re 10-9 overall as road faves under him. Buffalo is 8-4 vs spread in game following its last 12 losses. Road favorites in non-divisional games are 4-7 vs spread league-wide. AFC North teams are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-0.
Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (1-2) — Cleveland is just 32-49 SU at home the last 10+ years, but after upsetting Vikings in Metrodome last week, should be renewed enthusiasm, especially if Hoyer gets off to fast start. Browns won last week despite four turnovers; they ran ball for 103 yards in first game without Richardson, after running for 112 yards in two games with him. Bengals are 10-2 in last 12 games on grass, 6-1-1 in last eight games as road favorite and 17-7 in game following their last 24 wins, but they’re 0-5 as a divisional road favorite (7-1-1 as non-divisional AF). Seven of nine Bengal TDs have been on drives of 78+ yards, but they’ve lost field position battle in all three games. Cleveland has been outscored 41-10 in second half of games. Cincy won seven of last nine series games, with average total in last four, 51.5; home team won six of last seven series games, with Bengals 5-3 in last eight visits to Lake Erie.
Colts (2-1) @ Jaguars (0-3) — Jax is 3-1 in last four series (post-Manning) games, after losing 15 of previous 20 against Manning; Colts lost two of last three visits here, are in huge trap game coming off 27-7 whipping of 49ers at Candlestick (336-254 TY, +2 TOs). Since ’08, Indy is 13-5-1 as a road favorite, 6-3 in division games. Second week in row on road for Colts, in 49er/Seahawk sandwich against lesser division foe; underdogs covered their first three games. Jags have been outscored 92-28 in three games (32-9 average), 55-5 in first half, allowing 165.7 rushing yards/game; none of their three offensive TDs came on drives longer than 52 yards and two of three games had extended garbage time, Jax is 5-14 as a home dog, 7-11 as an AFC South home dog; they have only two TDs in eight trips to red zone- if you bet on them, you’re a masochist. Indy running ball for 146.3 ypg, figures to improve that with Richardson added to mix.
Seahawks (3-0) @ Texans (2-1) — Houston was first team since at least 1970 to win on last play in both Weeks 1-2, then went to Baltimore and got waxed when offense/special teams gave up TDs; hard to figure Texan squad that is 9-6 as home dog under Kubiak, 13-6 as dog of 3 or less points, 7-1-1 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less either way. Seahawks are 7-2 in games with spread of 3 or less, 2-4 as road favorite under Carroll, 6-8-3 vs spread on grass; they’ve allowed only three TDs on 30 drives this year, but are just 3-6 in last nine true road games, scoring only 12 points in opening win at Carolina, its only road game. Texans gained 449-452 yards in Weeks 1-2, was held to 264 last week, as trend of them folding vs top teams continues to hold. Home teams won pair of one-sided series games; Seattle lost 34-7 in only visit to Reliant, four years ago. AFC South teams are 2-7 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.
Cardinals (1-2) @ Buccaneers (0-3) — Didn’t take long for Schiano to pull plug on QB Freeman ($8.43M/year) in favor of rookie Glennon, whom he tried to recruit for Rutgers; Bucs have one TD on 21 drives in last two games, completed 45.7% of passes in three games, very poor, but last coach to cut a QB loose in order to play Glennon got canned within 15 months (Russell Wilson/O’Brien at NC State). Tampa won six of last eight series games, with last six all decided by 7 or less points. Arizona lost last three played here by 4-1-7 points. Cardinals are just 6-24 on 3rd down last two games, scoring 22 points on nine trips to red zone; they’re 9-7-1 as road dog since 2011, but have terrible injury problems at LB, losing three guys in last week. Since ’09, Bucs are 5-9-1 as home favorites- they’re 5-10-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional HF. Home teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC South teams.
Bears (3-0) @ Lions (2-1) — Chicago won nine of last 10 series games, taking last three by 24-6-2 points; Bears won four of last five visits to Motor City, are off to 3-0 start under Trestman, winning field position in all three games by 14-15-14 yards, unusually good to have three straight games like that. Chicago has 11 takeaways (+6) in three games, with defense scoring three TDs in last two weeks. Detroit WR Burleson broke his arm “bringing pizza home” during week; I eat more pizza than anyone I know, always get it delivered. Detroit threw for 352/358 yards in its two wins, 273 in loss at Arizona; with Freeman getting benched in Tampa, Stafford is last starting QB left from draft class of ’09. Lions have only four turnovers in four games; they better protect ball here. Since ’08, Bears are 8-15-2 as road underdogs; Lions are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Detroit has 27 penalties for 259 yards; Chicago has 11 for 119.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2) — All three San Diego games were decided by exactly three points, with both their losses in last 0:30; home teams lost last four games in this series, with Dallas winning four of five visits here (only loss 24-23 in ’83). Five of last seven series games were decided by 4 or less points. Pokes are 6-12-1 under Garrett in games where spread was 3 or less points; San Diego is 6-9-1 in last 16 such games. AFC is off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; entire NFC East is at AFC West this weekend. Cowboys scored 36-31 in their wins, were held to 16 in loss at Arrowhead; Chargers allowed 33-30-20 points so far this year, but have had a TD drive of less than 50 yards in all three games, as defense/special teams helped them win field position battle all three games. After converting 17-29 on third down in first two games, Bolts were just 3-9 in Nashville. After getting six takeaways in season opener, Dallas has only one in last two games (+3 in turnovers for year).
Giants (0-3) @ Chiefs (3-0) — Andy Reid might already be NFL Coach of the Year; his Chiefs have been +15/+14/+23 in field position in winning first three games (they were 2-14 LY)- they’re +9 in turnovers, while Giants are -9. All three KC games have stayed under the total as Chiefs have run ball for 127 ypg and Smith has totally avoided mistakes, taking sacks instead of making risky throws. Manning has been sacked 11 times (-8) and Big Blue allowed 21+ points in second half of all three games- they converted 4 of 23 third down plays in last two games. Banged-up Giant OL has been unable to open holes (44.3 rushing yards/game). Chiefs are just 3-15-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite; they’ve covered 10 of last 14 vs NFC foes, but failed to cover in narrow 17-16 (-3) Week 2 win over Dallas. Giants won last four series games, all by 10+ points; they’re 4-2 in Arrowhead, which was built exactly like old Swamp Stadium.
Jets (2-1) @ Titans (2-1) — Rookie QB Smith has been better than advertised for Jets, who lost here 14-10 (+1.5) in Week 15 Monday nighter LY, just second Tennessee win in last seven series games. Jets are 3-2 in Nashville, but are just 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional road dog (they’re 11-4 in last 15 games as a divisional road dog). Gang Green is 2-1 despite -6 turnover ratio; they don’t have a takeaway in last two games, but also have yet to allow more than 5.4 yards/pass attempt in many game. Tennessee has yet to turn ball over behind mobile-but-erratic Locker, who led last-minute TD drive to nip Chargers here last week; Titans are 4-5-1 as home favorite under Munchak, 7-13 in game following their last 20 wins. AFC East teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South teams are 2-7, 0-3 at home. 50 years ago, the Jets were known as the New York Titans, the Titans were known as the Houston Oilers; go figure.
Redskins (0-3) @ Raiders (1-2) — Winless Washington limps into Bay Area 0-3 after scoring three points in two red zone drives last week; they’ve been outscored 67-21 in first half of games, but played better last week in what was entertaining game. Skins are 2-2 as road faves under Shanahan who once coached the Raiders and then tormented them for years with Denver, after Al Davis shorted him on severance pay. Oakland got crushed in Denver Monday, but Broncos are doing that to everyone; concern is for improving young QB Pryor, who is showing signs of being good. Short week for Oakland, which may go to highly-paid backup QB Flynn if Pryor (concussion) can’t play. NFC East teams are 1-4 as non-divisional favorites. AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread out of division, 4-0 as underdogs. Oakland ran ball for 392 yards in first two games, only 49 Monday night. Raiders are 8-4 in this series, with teams splitting four games played here.
Eagles (1-2) @ Broncos (3-0) — Denver is on short week after dispatching Raiders Monday night; they’ve scored 42.3 ppg in first three games, winning by 22-18-16 points. Good news for Eagles; for first time in three weeks, the other team is on a short week, not them, since Philly played on Thursday last week, but Broncos have scored 15 TDs on 36 drives, with eight TDs and a FG in 12 red zone drives- they’re 8-1 as home favorites with Manning as QB, after being 5-24-2 in that role from 2006-11. Eagles allowed 33-26 points in losing last two games, giving up 934 TY in two games, bad news vs high-powered Broncos in altitude, when both teams will be playing fast. Philly ran ball for 263-89-260 yards in first three games; they’ll need to keep ball away from #18 or this will ugly early. Eagles are 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Home teams won last five series games. NFC East teams are 2-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West teams are 8-1.
Patriots (3-0) @ Falcons (1-2) — After facing two rookie QBs and Josh Freeman (benched this week) in their first three games, Pats step up in class facing BC alum Ryan here. NE got young WR Thompson involved with two TD catches last week, but in last two games, Pats are still just 10-33 on third down, after being 11-20 in opener at Buffalo. Patriots allowed only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, but since ’07, Falcons are 24-11-1 as home favorites- Smith is 19-4 vs spread in game following a loss. Atlanta butchered end of last week’s game in Miami, missing a 35-yard FG when up 23-20 late- they had only two TDs in five red zone drives, while Miami was 3-3. Patriots are 22-15-1 vs spread coming off a win, 6-2 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less points, but just 3-6 vs NFC foes. Falcons are 23-12-1 under Smith when spread is 3 or less, but they’re already 0-2 in such games this season. Three of seven remaining unbeaten teams are underdogs this week.
Dolphins (3-0) @ Saints (3-0) — When Brees left San Diego as free agent/after his shoulder surgery, Miami chose Culpepper over him, which turned out better for Brees than Miami. Deserves mention that Saints beat Miami 46-34 in ’09, teams’ only meeting since Brees signed with NO. Unbeaten Dolphins are moving chains, converting 21-52 (40.4%) on third down and have only two penalties in last two games- they’re 28-12-2 as a non-divisional road underdog, achieved under five different coaches. Fish are 21-11-1 as road underdogs, 6-3 vs NFC opponents, 4-4 as a road dog under Philbin. Saints scored four TDs on 10 drives last week, after scoring total of three on 22 drives in first two games; Payton covered his last ten games as a home favorite (Saints were 3-3 as HF without him LY). Ryan’s defense held last two opponents to 273/247 yards, after Falcons gained 367 in opener. Unusual that first three Saint games this year all stayed under the total.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans
By Rob Veno
Seattle at Houston
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Seattle -3 (-120) O/U 45
CRIS Current: Seattle -2 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -2.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over
The Houston Texans stock is beginning to slide after three very underwhelming performances to start the season. Current media and fan scrutiny make things sound a bit worse than what they actually are according to this week’s power ratings which show Houston just 1.5 points below their season opening number. The betting public’s expectations haven’t been met by hea coach Gary Kubiak’s team as they’ve gone 0-3 ATS and shredded a lot of tickets. Line movement this week indicates bettors haven’t given up on Houston as they’ve remained a +2/+2.5-point underdog fairly steadily the past three days. It makes sense to believe that at some point the Texans are going to play up to their talent level and maybe this is the week. Being a home underdog against this team which many consider the best in football should have Houston fully motivated. You can build a decent situational case for them in this spot but it’s probably not enough to get to the window with.
The fundamental breakdown of the offense has been the concerning piece for Houston thus far and rectifying it here could be difficult but they’ve got some things that can work. Their receiver size on the perimeter in Andre Johnson (upgraded to probable) and rookie D’Andre Hopkins won’t allow Seattle to dominate physically at the line of scrimmage the way they do other receivers. The power running of their backs and the solid offensive line doesn’t figure to be consistently overwhelmed by the Seahawks either so scoring opportunities should exist. Defensively, Houston could have the opportunity to prey on a pair of rookie tackles in their first road contest as backup LT Alvin Bailey and backup RT Michael Bowie look like the starting tandem for this one. Each played last week in the home blowout of Jacksonville but initial road start against a much higher class of opponent could present problems.
Seattle meantime keeps plowing through opponents despite the injury list, venue, opponent or any obstacle. They will likely focus on stopping Houston running backs Arian Foster & Ben Tate, especially since Texans HC Kubiak has come out this week and said he wants to run it more. If they become predictable and ineffective on first down and find their way to unfavorable down and distance situations, Seattle’s defense will thrive. Feeling here is Houston may need to drop the macho nature on early downs and mix in the passing game where they should be able to get 5+ yards consistently with their matchups.
This game has so many directions in which it could go and none of them would be a real surprise. Have to believe that the Houston offense will show up here (namely Matt Schaub) and give the Texans a shot at the outright win. Seattle is just too consistent at this point to feel any team will totally derail them so playing the side is not an option for me. Recommendation here will be to buck the downward (injury based) movement in the total and take the value in over 41.5.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
Sunday's NFL Action
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-0) at HOUSTON TEXANS (2-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -3 & 42
Opening Line & Total: Seahawks -3 & 43
The Seahawks try to stay perfect with a tough road tilt against the reeling Texans on Sunday afternoon.
Seattle has thrown for an NFC-best 9.2 yards per pass attempt and pummeled its past two opponents (49ers and Jaguars) by a combined score of 74 to 20. Houston won each of its first two contests on the final play of the game, but despite holding the Ravens to 236 yards (4.1 per play) last week, the club still lost 30-9 as the result of a conservative offense and poor special teams. It also hurt that top WR Andre Johnson left with a shin bruise, making him questionable for Sunday. The home team has won big in both all-time meetings in this series with the Seahawks prevailing 42-10 in 2005 and the Texans rolling to a 34-7 victory in 2009 when Johnson caught 11 passes for 193 yards and 2 TD. Seattle has plenty of betting trends in its favor on Sunday. In the past two seasons, the club is 16-5 ATS (76%) overall, 11-3 ATS (79%) after a win, 8-0 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play and 7-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record. But since 1992, the Seahawks are just 3-18 ATS (14%) off a home blowout win by 21+ points and 11-25 ATS (31%) on the road after a double-digit home win. Houston also has some favorable trends in the past three seasons, including 6-0 ATS at home following a loss, 8-1 ATS (89%) where the line is +3 to -3, and 21-8 ATS (72%) on a grass field.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson is coming off a phenomenal game in the 45-17 blowout over Jacksonville, completing 14-of-21 passes for 202 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT. He has completed 64.4% of his throws on the season and ranks third in the NFL in both passer rating (109.6) and yards per pass attempt (9.1). The Seahawks don't have a superstar receiver, but they do have great balance with 10 players having already caught multiple passes this season. WRs Sidney Rice (16 targets) and Golden Tate (15 targets) are usually Wilson's first two looks when he drops back, but TE Zach Miller has been nice safety valve with seven catches on his 10 targets, two of which have been in the end zone. But the Seahawks haven't possessed the football for 33:10 (6th in NFL) just by throwing. The ground game has chewed up 133 YPG (8th in league) thanks mostly to RB Marshawn Lynch who has carried the football 62 times (T-4th in NFL), but has a career-low 3.4 yards per carry this season. Backup RB Robert Turbin has been more effective with 4.4 YPC, but has only 12 carries with many of those coming after the game was no longer in doubt. Defensively, Seattle has just been incredible. In addition to forcing 10 turnovers, the unit leads the NFL in scoring defense (9.0 PPG), total defense (242 YPG) and passing defense (147 YPG), while allowing a mere 4.3 yards per play (4th in league) and a 32% third-down conversion rate (6th in NFL). Shutdown CB Richard Sherman will be tasked with stopping Andre Johnson while the defensive line will look for its third straight game with at least three sacks. The team has a pretty small injury list, but both LB Malcom Smith and S Jeron Johnson are questionable with hamstring ailments.
Houston's offense has been erratic this season, but the team still leads the NFL with a +139 yards per game advantage. QB Matt Schaub has posted some gaudy passing numbers (66.4% completions, 279 passing YPG and 6 TD), but he has also thrown four interceptions, with two of those returned the other way for touchdowns. Although he has the tendency to force-feed WR Andre Johnson (35 targets, 6th-most in NFL), he has also relied on two others frequently, rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins (26 targets, 18 catches) and TE Owen Daniels (20 targets, 12 catches, 3 TD). The Texans will try to be a run-first offense on Sunday, especially considering how great the Seahawks pass defense has been. RB Arian Foster takes the majority of hand-offs with 49, but has averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry with just one touchdown. RB Ben Tate, on the other hand, leads all NFL running backs with 6.8 YPC, rumbling for 184 yards on his 27 attempts. Although Houston allowed 30 points last week, only 16 of those were offensive points as it was burned by a punt return touchdown and interception return TD. The Texans rank second in the NFL in both total defense (249 YPG) and first downs per game (14.7), frequently producing three-and-outs to put their offense back on the field. They have allowed a mere 4.3 yards per play (3rd in league) and place fifth in the NFL in both yards per carry (3.3 YPC) and yards per pass attempt (5.7 YPA). Houston has no major injuries on defense with FS Ed Reed making his team debut last week.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (3-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -11.5 & 58.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -11.5 & 58.5
Two explosive offenses prepare for a shootout when the unbeaten Broncos host the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
Philly's offense has piled up an NFL-best 7.0 yards per play and 6.6 yards per rush thanks to RB LeSean McCoy's 514 total yards. But the Eagles defense has allowed 438 total yards per game (3rd-worst in NFL) with a league-worst 35:35 defensive time of possession. Denver has assaulted its first three opponents with an NFL-leading 42.3 PPG and 487 YPG thanks to QB Peyton Manning throwing for 1,143 yards (381 YPG), 12 TD and 0 INT. Philly won the most recent meeting, 30-27 in 2009, but its past two trips to Denver have ended in lopsided losses of 49-21 and 41-16. The Eagles committed five turnovers and forced none in last week's home loss to the Chiefs, but they are 9-1 ATS after a game with a TO margin of minus-4 or worse since 1992. However, Philly has been a horrible wager in the past two seasons (4-14 ATS, 22%), including 2-10 ATS (17%) when coming off an ATS loss. On the other hand, the Broncos are 13-5 ATS (72%) in all games over the past two seasons, including 12-2 ATS (86%) as a favorite. But they also had turnover issues last week (minus-2 TO ratio), and head coach John Fox is just 6-16 ATS (27%) in his coaching career after a game in which his team had a TO margin of minus-2 or worse.
Philadelphia's sped-up offense has snapped off 198 plays (66 per game) this season, but has allowed 227 plays (76 per game) to its opponents. QB Michael Vick has been electric this year with 9.1 yards per pass attempt and 10.4 yards per carry, but he's also had too many negative plays, absorbing 11 sacks and turning the ball over four times (2 INT, 2 fumbles), including three giveaways last week against the Chiefs. He has relied heavily on RB LeSean McCoy who not only has 6.4 yards per carry (3rd in NFL), but also boasts 19.8 yards per reception (7th in NFL). Top WR DeSean Jackson is also having an incredible season with 359 receiving yards (2nd in NFL) on 18.9 yards per catch, and is starting to get some help from teammate WR Jason Avant who caught five passes for 87 yards and a touchdown last week. Although the defense has given up a ton of yards by being on the field so often, it has limited opponents to 3.98 yards per carry which is right about the league average. Philadelphia was able to generate five takeaways in its first two games of the season, and although it had none in Week 3, it did post a hefty five sacks. The one key injury to the Eagles secondary is S Patrick Chung who is questionable with a left shoulder contusion.
Denver's offense has been able to score at least 37 points in all three games due to great decision making by QB Peyton Manning who has absorbed just four sacks and has turned the ball over only once, losing a fumble against the Raiders last week. He leads the NFL in both yards per attempt (9.4) and completion percentage (73%) because he has so many excellent receivers to throw the football to. Four players already have 14+ catches this season led by the trio of WRs Demaryius Thomas (20 catches, 307 yards, 2 TD), Eric Decker (19 catches, 252 yards, 1 TD) and Wes Welker (19 catches, 190 yards, 4 TD). Manning has kept all three of these guys happy with 27+ targets apiece. TE Julius Thomas has also been outstanding with 194 receiving yards and 4 TD on his 14 grabs. But the Broncos aren't just a one-dimensional passing team. They have averaged a solid 3.9 yards per carry with the committee of RBs Knowshon Moreno (160 yards on 4.7 YPC), Montee Ball (99 yards on 3.2 YPC) and Ronnie Hillman (84 yards on 6.0 YPC) to average 112 rushing YPG, good for 14th in the NFL. Denver's run defense has been top-notch with 43.3 rushing YPG allowed and 2.3 YPC allowed, leading the league in both categories. However, opponents have been quick to abandon the run and take to the air, throwing for 327 YPG (3rd-worst in NFL) and 6.9 YPA on this Broncos secondary. Star CB Champ Bailey has yet to play this season because of a foot injury, but it's possible he could make his season debut on Sunday. Top LB Von Miller is still serving a suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy and won't be eligible to return until Week 7.
CHICAGO BEARS (3-0) at DETROIT LIONS (2-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Detroit -2.5 & 48
Opening Line & Total: Lions -2.5 & 47.5
The unbeaten Bears try to dominate the Lions again on Sunday when the NFC North foes clash on Sunday at Ford Field.
Chicago is 9-1 SU in the past 10 meetings in this series, but Detroit is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six matchups, losing by two and six points last year. The Bears crushed the Steelers 40-23 on the road last week despite being outgained by 201 yards. They forced five Pittsburgh turnovers to increase their total to 11 takeaways in 2013. The Lions also won on the road, 27-20 at Washington, without top RB Reggie Bush (hip), who is probable to return in Week 4. QB Jay Cutler has 12 TD and 1 INT in this series since coming to Chicago, while Lions QB Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily with just 4 TD and 11 INT in this series. This matchup is difficult to handicap as both teams possess multiple glaring negative trends. The Bears are 0-8 ATS coming off a non-conference game over the past three seasons, and 3-19 ATS (14%) versus excellent offensive teams (6+ yards per play) since 1992. But in the past three seasons, Detroit is 0-10 ATS versus excellent passing teams (64% or better completion pct.) and 4-14 ATS (22%) after gaining 6+ yards per play in its previous game.
Chicago QB Jay Cutler has been very comfortable in new head coach Marc Trestman's offense this season, getting sacked only three times combined in three games. This great protection has led to a career-best 67.3% completion rate (5th in NFL) with 693 passing yards, 6 TD and 3 INT. WR Brandon Marshall is still Cutler's first look when he drops back, completing 20 of 27 targets to Marshall for 269 yards and 2 TD. However, three other players have also earned 20+ targets this season, RB Matt Forte (18 catches, 138 yards), WR Alshon Jeffery (13 receptions, 104 yards) and TE Martellus Bennett (12 catches, 135 yards) who has provided a reliable red-zone target with three touchdown grabs. The Bears have also done a decent job rushing the football with 105 YPG on 3.8 yards per carry. Forte has been the workhorse with 55 carries for 225 yards (4.1 YPC) and a pair of scores. On the defensive side of the ball, Chicago has stuffed the run nicely, ranking eighth in the NFL in both rushing defense (89 YPG) and yards per carry (3.6 YPC). However, opponents have thrown for 294 YPG (9th-most in NFL) on a hefty 8.5 yards per attempt (4th-worst in league). The pass defense also has to adjust to star CB Charles Tillman's groin injury that will prevent him from shadowing Lions stud WR Calvin Johnson like he usually does.
Detroit's offense will certainly benefit from do-it-all RB Reggie Bush returning to the field, but it will be missing No. 2 WR Nate Burleson for the next six weeks or so after he broke his arm in a car accident early this week. Burleson's absence will put more onus on WR Ryan Broyles, who is still recovering from last year's torn ACL, and WR Patrick Edwards, who missed last week's game with a sprained ankle, but does expect to return on Sunday. But the Lions have other perfectly healthy weapons in QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson and RB Joique Bell (296 total yards, 3 TD). Stafford has taken just two sacks over the first three games, which has given him the confidence to throw for 1,020 yards (4th in NFL) on 8.4 YPA (5th in league) with 6 TD and only 2 INT. Although Stafford has been terrible versus the Bears in his career, a lot of that has to do with Johnson being limited by Bears CB Charles Tillman. Last season, Johnson set an NFL record with 1,964 receiving yards (123 per game), but gained only 106 yards (53 per game) against the Bears. With Tillman hurting, Stafford and Johnson could both enjoy a huge afternoon. Detroit has better offensive balance this year with both Bell and Bush capable of rushing the football, but the team is averaging just 75 rushing YPG (7th-worst in NFL) on 2.9 YPC (4th-worst in league). Detroit's defense has been below average in terms of total yards per game (366 YPG, 18th in NFL) and yards per play (5.7 YPP, 22nd in league), but has produced the best stoppage rate on third downs in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert a mere 26.5% of its third downs. The Lions have also done a nice job of making plays with seven takeaways (5 INT, 2 fumbles), but have only a half-dozen sacks on the season. Losing DT Jason Jones to a season-ending knee injury will hurt, but Detroit still has plenty of talent on its front line with three former first-round draft picks in DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Nick Fairley and rookie DE Ezekial Ansah, who recorded two sacks last week.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Atlanta -2.5 & 50.5
Opening Line & Total: Pick 'em & 49.5
The Falcons look to get back to .500 while the Patriots try to stay undefeated when the two teams square off at Georgia Dome on Sunday night.
The last time New England and Atlanta played was in September of 2009 where the Patriots held a 445 to 257 yards advantage and prevailed 26-10. New England was a 4-point underdog in that game and was able to win-and-cover for the third straight time against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed 296 passing YPG this season (25th in NFL), which doesn't bode well against a Tom Brady-led offense that could have TE Rob Gronkowski (back) for the first time this season. However, Atlanta also has a potent air attack (289 passing YPG, 7th in NFL) and will provide the first real test for New England's suspect secondary, which has faced three of the league's worst starting quarterbacks (Josh Freeman, Geno Smith and EJ Manuel). The Patriots are 39-16 ATS (71%) as an underdog under head coach Bill Belichick, but the Falcons are is 8-1 ATS in September home games under head coach Mike Smith. Although New England is 14-4 ATS (78%) coming off of a Belichick-coached game where his team allowed six points or less, Atlanta is 19-5 ATS (79%) after a loss under Smith.
The Patriots are 3-0 SU to start the season, but their offense hasn't played well at all, gaining just 4.5 yards per play (3rd-fewest in NFL) and scoring only 19.7 PPG (22nd in league). New England is coming off a 23-3 victory over the Buccaneers in which Tom Brady's receivers finally provided him with some competent play. Aaron Dobson had seven catches in the game for 52 yards while Kenbrell Thompkins was the recipient of two red-zone touchdown passes. WR Julian Edelman also chipped in with seven receptions for 44 yards, as he's tied for the NFL lead with 27 catches this year. Brady was 25-of-36 for 225 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the game, marking his 51st straight game with at least one touchdown pass. Many of those touchdown passes during his streak have gone to TE Rob Gronkowski who has an incredible 39 TD catches in 43 career games. The Patriots rushing offense really sputtered in Week 2 versus the Jets (24 carries for 54 yards), but chewed up 156 rushing yards as a team versus the Bucs, led by LeGarrette Blount's 65 yards on 14 carries and Brandon Bolden's 51 yards on just three rushing attempts in his season debut. One the defensive end, New England was near perfect, allowing just 323 yards of total offense against a weak Buccaneers team. For the season, the Patriots have allowed just 11.3 PPG (T-2nd in NFL) and 309 total YPG (T-8th in league), while forcing an impressive seven turnovers. With the offense beginning to get healthier and the Patriots still undefeated, it's interesting to see just how good this team will be in a couple of weeks when Gronkowski and top WR Danny Amendola (groin) return healthy.
Atlanta's defense has really struggled this season, allowing 24.7 PPG (T-19th in NFL) and 375 total YPG (23rd in league). They defense hasn't been able to get stops when it has needed to, both on third down (48% conversion rate, 5th-worst in NFL) and in the red zone (70% efficiency, T-23rd in league). Without RB Steven Jackson, who is out for a month with a thigh injury, the Falcons' backfield duo of RBs Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling was very productive last week, combining for 139 yards on 29 carries (4.8 YPC). Snelling also caught four passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. QB Matt Ryan went 23-of-38 for 231 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the game. WR Julio Jones continues to give opposing defenses nightmares as he caught nine passes for 115 yards. He now has a league-high-tying 27 receptions for an NFL-best 373 yards and two touchdowns on the year. Jones also leads the league with 194 yards after catch, which has been key because fellow WR Roddy White is still dealing with a high-ankle sprain that has really limited his usually stellar production. TE Tony Gonzalez is also off to a slow start with just 11 catches for 93 yards and one touchdown, a big drop-off from his 2012 season when he caught 93 passes for 930 yards and eight scores.
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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
Week 4 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Steelers (-2½, 42) vs. Vikings
Pittsburgh: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Minnesota: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
Last week's results: Pittsburgh fell behind early and could never get over the hump against unbeaten Chicago, as the Steelers lost, 37-20 as a one-point home underdog. The Vikings were expected to knock off 0-2 Cleveland, but Minnesota was shocked as seven-point favorites in a 31-27 home defeat.
Previous meeting: The Steelers took care of the Vikings at Heinz Field, 27-17 as six-point favorites in 2009. Pittsburgh picked up a fortunate cover on an 82-yard interception return of a Brett Favre pass with 1:15 remaining in regulation, while Adrian Peterson was limited to 69 yards on the ground.
Betting notes: Mike Tomlin's club has struggled in the role of a road favorite, putting together a 1-6 ATS record since 2011, which includes outright losses at Oakland, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Even though this is a neutral site contest, the Vikings are listed as the home team. Last season, Minnesota won and covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog, while winning each of their last four games before the bye week.
Colts (-8½, 43) at Jaguars
Indianapolis: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
Jacksonville: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Colts hit the road for the first time this season and dominated the 49ers as 10½-point underdogs, 27-7. Jacksonville continues to make a case to be the worst team in football after getting pounded at Seattle, 45-17, while not coming close to cashing as 19½-point 'dogs.
Previous meeting: The two division rivals split a pair of games last season with the road team winning each time. The Jaguars shocked the Colts with an 80-yard touchdown pass late in a 22-17 victory as three-point road underdogs last September, but Indianapolis destroyed Jacksonville in north Florida, 27-10 as three-point 'chalk' seven weeks later.
Betting notes: The Colts won and covered four of six divisional games last season, including victories at Tennessee and Jacksonville. Since the start of last season, the Jaguars own a dreadful 2-6 ATS record as a home underdog, with seven straight-up losses coming by at least seven points.
Cardinals at Buccaneers (-2½, 40½)
Arizona: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
Last week's results: Both Arizona and Tampa Bay failed to cover as road underdogs, while each team was limited to single-digits. The Cardinals scored the opening touchdown at New Orleans, but the Saints would put the next 31 points in a 31-7 rout. The Bucs' offense continued to struggle in a 23-3 defeat at New England, the third consecutive 'under' for Greg Schiano's club.
Previous meeting: Tampa Bay outlasted Arizona in the desert, 38-35 back in 2010 as the Bucs cashed outright as three-point underdogs. The Cardinals are making their first trip to Tampa since 2007, as the Bucs held off Arizona, 17-10.
Betting notes: The Bucs are putting the Josh Freeman experiment on hold by starting rookie Mike Glennon at quarterback. Under Schiano, Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite, while losing four straight games at Raymond James Stadium. The Cardinals have cashed four of their last six games as a single-digit road underdog, while dropping eight consecutive road contests overall.
Giants at Chiefs (-4, 44)
New York: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Kansas City: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
Last week's results: These two teams are going in opposite directions as the Chiefs go for their first 4-0 start since 2003. Kansas City knocked off Philadelphia last Thursday, 26-16 as three-point road underdogs, the second away cover for Andy Reid's team. The Giants can't seem to get out of their own way after allowing 402 yards in a 38-0 defeat at Carolina, the third straight game New York has given up at least 36 points.
Previous meeting: The last time the Giants traveled to Arrowhead Stadium, New York was seeking a 4-0 start instead of falling in an 0-4 hole. New York cruised past Kansas City, 27-16 as nine-point favorites in 2009, the third straight victory in the series dating back to 2001.
Betting notes: The Chiefs have won six of their last seven home games against AFC opponents, while posting a 5-2 ATS mark. The Giants have failed to cash in each of the first three games, while last having an 0-4 ATS stretch back in 2009, which ended up being an 0-6 ATS run after starting the season at 5-0.
Redskins (-3½, 44) at Raiders
Washington: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Oakland: 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS
Last week's results: Washington won the NFC East title last season, but the Redskins boast the league's worst defense by allowing 32.6 points per game. The Redskins fell at home to the Lions, 27-20, the third straight non-cover, as Washington never went three consecutive games without an ATS win last season. The Raiders barely improved to 3-0 ATS with a late touchdown at Denver, but lost to the explosive Broncos, 37-21. Terrelle Pryor left the game with a concussion, as Oakland plans to start Matt Flynn at quarterback on Sunday.
Previous meeting: The Redskins traveled to the Black Hole and routed the Raiders, 34-13 as short road favorites in 2009. The away team has won each of the last five matchups since 1992, including two victories by Washington at Oakland.
Betting notes: Washington has been a reliable road team under Mike Shanahan, posting a 15-10 ATS record since 2010. The Raiders own an 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS record the last six games against NFC opponents, including home defeats to the Saints and Bucs.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 4 of the NFL
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- The Baltimore Ravens rank fourth-last in the league averaging 308.3 yards per game thus far. The ground game has been anemic but could be bolstered by the potential return of Ray Rice, who is reportedly a game-time decision.
- If Rice is indeed in the backfield, the Ravens will be licking their chops. They face the Buffalo Bills who have allowed two 100-yard rushing performances (Shane Vereen and Bilal Powell) through their first three games. The Ravens are 3-point road dogs Sunday.
- Rookie QB Mike Glennon gets the start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they host the Arizona Cardinals. Bucs are 1-point home faves.
- The Steelers are currently 3-point faves as they face the Minnesota Vikings in London, England. The favorite has covered in the last four games in the UK.
- Chiefs LB Justin Houston was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the second time this season. Houston sacked Michael Vick 3.5 times last week and he and the Chiefs defense could be in for more as they host the Giants. Giants QB Eli Manning was sacked seven times in last week's loss to Carolina.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South battle Sunday. The Jags and Colts have played under the total in four straight matchups. Total for Sunday is 42.5.
- Texans star-WR Andre Johnson will get the start against the Seahawks. The last time the teams met (2009), Johnson had 11 grabs for 193 yards and a pair of TDs in a 34-7 Texans victory.
- The Seahawks are one of four teams that own perfect 3-0 ATS records so far this season. Seattle is a 1-point road fave in Houston Sunday.
- A new chapter will be written in the Bengals/Browns rivalry. The underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these AFC North teams. The Browns are 3.5-point home dogs.
- The New York Jets are flagged with an NFL-leading 11.3 penalties per game and are punished to the tune of 93 yards per game.
- The Tennessee Titans have yet to give the ball away through the first three games of the season.
- Bears QB Jay Cutler is 7-1 against the Lions since joining Chicago in 2009, throwing 12 TDs and just one INT in that span.
- The Washington Redskins have allowed 1,464 yards on defense. That total is the most in the history of the league through the opening three games of the season.
- Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of Monday's 37-21 loss to the Broncos and is questionable to play against the Redskins. Backup QB Matt Flynn has been practicing with the first team this week.
- The Denver Broncos have won 14-straight regular-season games - longest active streak in the league.
- Speaking of Denver; Peyton could be in for yet another big game. Philly ranks dead last in opponent completions per game (29.3). Broncos are 11-point faves and the total is 58.5.
- Cowboys WR Miles Austin has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers with a hamstring injury.
- The Chargers are hosting the Cowboys Sunday. San Diego is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Chargers are 1-point home dogs.
- The Atlanta Falcons host the New England Patriots at the Georgia Dome in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons are 1-point home faves but are 0-3 ATS in their last three versus the Pats - two of which were in Georgia.
- Keep an eye on the status of Pats TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is listed as questionable, but the Boston Herald believes he is healthy enough to play.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
Sunday's NFL Week 4 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+3, 44.5)
After a disastrous season-opening shellacking, the Baltimore Ravens are making strides toward resembling the team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy earlier this calendar year. The Ravens look to build off a pair of dominating defensive efforts on Sunday when they visit western New York to face the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills' backfield survived a scare as talented rusher C.J. Spiller has been a full participant in practice despite tweaking his quad in last week's 27-20 loss to the New York Jets. To add insult to injury, the Bills were unable to capitalize on 20 penalties en route to suffering their second loss to an AFC East rival.
LINE: Baltimore opened as a 3-point road fave. The total opened at 44 and is now up to 44.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.
* Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 40)
Larry Fitzgerald found the going tough last weekend - and he may be in for an even rougher ride against Tampa Bay. The veteran WR fought through a hamstring injury to haul in five passes for 64 yards against the Saints, but had just six targets on the afternoon as QB Carson Palmer struggled with the revamped New Orleans pass defense. Fitzgerald says he's close to 100 percent - and he'll need to be against Buccaneers defensive back Darrelle Revis.
Rookie Mike Glennon will line up under center Sunday afternoon as the winless Buccaneers shake things up against the visiting Arizona Cardinals. Head coach Greg Schiano made the decision to switch quarterbacks after Josh Freeman struggled for a third consecutive week in a 23-3 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots.
LINE: The Bucs opened -2.5 but are currently -1. The total opened at 40.5 and is now 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
* Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven games overall.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* Under is 7-2 in Cardinals last nine games in September.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3, 41.5)
Ben Roethlisberger put the game on his shoulders last week against Chicago and ended up throwing two interceptions and losing a pair of fumbles in the 40-23 loss. Roethlisberger caused a minor stir with comments on his radio show about rookie running back Le’Veon Bell’s toughness but quickly backtracked and is hoping Bell (foot) can add another dimension to the offense when he makes his expected NFL debut.
Quarterback Christian Ponder struggled to take advantage of defenses crowding the line to stop RB Adrian Peterson and a fractured rib suffered last week opened the door for Matt Cassel to start in his place.
LINE: The Vikings opened as 1-point dogs and are now +3. The total is 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with overcast skies.
* Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Steelers last five games overall.
* Vikings are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 4.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43.5)
Eli Manning has tossed a league-high eight interceptions - although a patchwork offensive line contributed in his getting sacked an alarming seven times last week. The two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback's troubles fell on deaf ears as wideout Hakeem Nicks bristled that "(he) can't throw it to myself" after seeing just one pass attempt sail in his direction last week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have made themselves at home at the expense of the NFC East. The undefeated Chiefs vie for their third consecutive victory against a representative from that division on Sunday when they host the winless New York Giants. After edging Dallas in Week 2, coach Andy Reid's club cruised to a convincing 26-16 triumph over his former one in Philadelphia on Sept. 19.
LINE: KC opened as a 4-point home fave. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.
* Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 42.5)
The Colts suddenly have one of the top backfield duos in the league with Ahmad Bradshaw (186 rushing yards) and Trent Richardson, who scored a touchdown in his first carry for Indianapolis last week. The defense was solid, if unspectacular, in the first two games but flexed its muscles against San Francisco, allowing only 254 total yards and forcing two turnovers.
Jacksonville will have Blaine Gabbert back under center after missing two games with a cut on his throwing hand. "The last couple of weeks have kind of been a blessing in disguise, to let my hand heal," Gabbert told reporters. "It gave me a different point of view and an opportunity to watch things from a different perspective."
LINE: The line opened with the Jags +9.5. The total is 42.5.
WEATHER: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and wind will blow toward the south endzone at 11 mph.
* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+1, 41.5)
Seattle is riding a top-notch defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense (9.0) and total defense (241.7 yards) and also has forced 10 turnovers. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied his career high with four touchdown passes in a romp over Jacksonville and has six overall while completing 64.4 percent of his passes.
Houston’s 21-point loss to Baltimore included a franchise-record 14 penalties, zero offensive touchdowns scored and allowing the Ravens to record one defensive and one punt-return touchdown. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown for 838 yards and six touchdowns but running back Arian Foster (190 yards, one score) has yet to hit his stride.
LINE: Houston opened as a 3-point home dog and is now +1. The total opened at 44 and is now 41.5.
* Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Texans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4.
* Under is 8-1 in Seahawks last nine games in September.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 42.5)
Cincinnati's defense, which hasn't allowed a 300-yard passer in the past 17 games, frustrated Aaron Rodgers last week. The Bengals limited Rodgers to 244 yards passing and picked him off twice but they still surrendered 30 straight points in the bizarre contest.
Making just his second career start in his fifth NFL season, Brian Hoyer threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns to tight end Jordan Cameron as the Browns rallied past the Vikings a week ago. Josh Gordon was brilliant in his return from a two-game suspension, catching 10 passes for 146 yards, but Willis McGahee provided little help on the ground in rushing for nine yards on eight carries.
LINE: The Bengals opened as 5-point road faves but are now +3.5. The total opened at 41 and is now 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of rain.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.
* Underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings
* Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47.5)
The Chicago Bears can seize early control of the NFC North Division when they carry an unbeaten record into Detroit on Sunday. With a win, Chicago would have a two-game lead in the division at the quarter pole of the season. The Bears enter with loads of momentum after a 40-23 rout at Pittsburgh on Sunday night in their first road contest of the season.
Lion RB Reggie Bush told reporters this week that he expects to be ready to play Sunday after missing Week 3 with a sprained left knee. Without Bush in the fold, Joique Bell ran 20 times for just 63 yards for the league's 26th-ranked rushing attack, but he did haul in four catches for 69 yards.
LINE: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home faves and are now -3. The total opened at 48 and is down to 47.5.
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. NFC North.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
Sunday's NFL Week 4 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 40.5)
Jets rooke Geno Smith rebounded from a three-interception fourth quarter against New England to become the first rookie in franchise history to top 300 yards by throwing for 331 in last week's 27-20 victory over Buffalo. Although he was picked off twice versus the Bills, Smith has developed a nice rapport with wideout Santonio Holmes, who had five receptions for a career-high 154 yards, including a 69-yard scoring strike for the go-ahead touchdown.
Titans QB Jake Locker was a turnover machine in 2012 with 15 in 11 games, but the Titans are one of two teams that has yet to commit one and are an overtime loss at Houston away from being undefeated. Locker has the luxury of leaning on speedy running back Chris Johnson, who leads the AFC with 256 yards rushing and burned New York with a 94-yard scoring run last season.
LINE: The Titans opened -5 bue have since moved to -3.5. The total opened at 39 and has moved to 40.5.
WEATHER: There is a 43 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
* Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 4.
* Under is 4-0 in Jets last four road games.
* Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44)
While Robert Griffin's health has generated most of the headlines, the more pressing concern for Washington is a defense that has yielded 98 points and been shredded for a league-high 488 yards per game. The 1,464 yards allowed by Washington is the most in NFL history through the first three games of the season.
Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor had emerged as one of the early-season feel-good stories after beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job, but his status is in doubt after he absorbed a helmet-to-helmet hit in the waning minutes of Monday's loss.
LINE: The Raiders opened as 3-point home dogs. The total opened at 43.5 and is up to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Redskins last 4 road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 home games.
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 58.5)
As prolific as the offense has been, Philadelphia has lost two straight and now faces three consecutive road games. The productivity has been offset by seven turnovers - including five in last week's 26-16 loss to Kansas City.
Peyton Manning and the Broncos' passing game are scoring at a record-setting clip, and Knowshon Moreno (160 rush yards) leads a solid ground game. The defense has been dominant against the run and has offset its weakness against the pass with an AFC-best six interceptions.
LINE: The Broncos opened at -10.5. The total opened at 57 and is up to 58.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers (+1, 46.5)
Dallas running back DeMarco Murray exploded with a 175-yard effort in last Sunday’s victory over St. Louis that was his first 100-yard outing since the opening game of the 2012 season.
Each of San Diego’s games have down to the final half-minute, including last week’s 20-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Rivers is three touchdown passes away from joining Hall of Famer Dan Fouts (254) and John Hadl (201) as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach 200 scoring passes.
LINE: The Cowboys opened as 1-point home faves. The total opened at 45.5 and is up one point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the east endzone at 6 mph.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 4.
* Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Chargers last five games overall.
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 49)
Amendola (groin) and Gronkowski (forearm/back) have both been limited participants in practice this week and are listed as questionable for Sunday. Quarterback Tom Brady made good use of Amendola in the season opener but is making do with rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins over the last two weeks, and the two finally stepped up in a 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.
Quarterback Matt Ryan is dealing with his own banged-up receiving corps, though Julio Jones (knee) and Roddy White (high ankle sprain) have yet to miss a game. Atlanta is opening up a three-game homestand with the Patriots after suffering each of its losses on the road, including last week’s 27-23 setback at Miami.
LINE: The game opened as a pick with the Falcons now -1. The total opened at 49.
* Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 4.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 road games.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 29
Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
Week 3 Recap
The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record in Week 3. Through three weeks of action, the ‘under’ is 25-23. The Bears, Broncos, Vikings and Packers have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 while the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Saints and Patriots have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their first three games.
If part of your handicapping is following line moves, then this section has certainly helped your profits this NFL season or at least we hope so. Through two weeks, we’ve listed 13 games that had their total move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS, either up or down. If you followed the move, regardless of the jump or drop, you would’ve gone 11-2 (85%) this season.
I’m not telling you to run to the counter and unload this Sunday, just informing you of where the early bettors believe the oddsmakers made mistakes. In Week 4, we have five games that have been adjusted as of Sunday morning.
Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (from London): Line opened 39 and jumped to 41
Seattle at Houston: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41½
New York Giants at Kansas City: Line opened 45½ and dropped to 44
Dallas at San Diego: Line opened 44½ and jumped to 46½
Philadelphia at Denver: Line opened 55 and jumped to 57½
Totals in the fifties isn’t unusual these days in the pass-happy NFL and it makes you wonder if we’ll ever see a number in the sixties, especially the way Denver has been playing this season. In case you’re wondering, the highest ‘over/under’ in NFL history occurred in 2000 when the St. Louis Rams otherwise known as the “Greatest Show on Turf” met San Francisco on the road. That total was 62 and it fell ‘under’ as the Rams beat the 49ers 34-24. St. Louis played 17 games 2000 and only four were listed below 50 points.
Denver and quarterback Peyton Manning are on pace to shatter offensive records this season and the books have taken notice. This week, the Broncos are looking at a total of 57½ when Philadelphia visits Sports Authority Field. When you look at the lack of productivity from the Eagles defense this season, it’s hard to argue that the Broncos will be slowed down, especially at home. Make a note that the Broncos had two totals in the fifties (50, 55) last season and the betting results went 1-1 in those games, barely. Only a combined 52 and 48 points were posted in those two contests.
Lookin' at London
The NFL International Series returns this week for the first of two games to be played at Wembley Stadium from London. The first go ‘round will feature a pair of winless squads in Pittsburgh and Minnesota going head-to-head. The second meeting from London takes place in four weeks when San Francisco and Jacksonville meet from London.
This will be the seventh installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another low-scoring affair. In the first six matchups the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 and in the two instances we did see some points posted, it came with a pair of offensive juggernauts playing in the Saints (2008) and Patriots (2012). Most would agree that the Steelers and Vikings aren’t as explosive. Make a note that Minnesota is starting a backup at QB in Matt Cassel, which might be a good thing for the Vikings.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
2012 – New England 45 St. Louis 7 (Over 46)
The ‘over’ has gone 9-6 in divisional matchups this season, which includes Thursday’s lucky ‘over’ ticket between the 49ers and Rams. Three more on tap for Sunday.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in this series, which included a pair of shootouts last season that saw a combined 58 and 61 points posted.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive games between this pair. The totals have ranged from 36½ points to 43 during this span. This week’s number is hovering between 41 and 42.
Chicago at Detroit: For the past three years, the Bears and Lions have seen the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 in their regular season matchups. If that trend stays true in 2013, the best angle might be to pass on Sunday and then play the opposite when they meet again on Nov. 10 from Soldier Field.
Under the Lights
Including this past Thursday’s matchup between St. Louis and San Francisco, the ‘over’ has cashed in three consecutive primetime games. On the season, the ‘over’ is now 7-4 in the national spotlight. This week, we have two high numbers posted and a lot of it has to do with reputation.
New England at Atlanta: On paper this matchup presents two quality quarterbacks that can light up the scoreboard any given week but neither is executing at a high level right now. The Falcons are banged up on both sides of the football and the Patriots aren’t clicking with all the new faces. Tom Brady is 3-0 in his career versus Atlanta, posting 24, 31 and 26 points. New England will still be without TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) and Danny Amendola (groin) on Sunday. Atlanta won’t have RB Steven Jackson (thigh) but WR Roddy White (ankle) is expected to go.
Miami at New Orleans: After three weeks, the biggest surprise of the season could be the perfect 3-0 ‘under’ record of the Saints. Miami has been better offensively behind second-year QB Ryan Tannehill this season but he still doesn’t have any pocket awareness (15 sacks). Drew Brees and the Saints have put up five scores in each of their two home games. Last Sunday, they had 31 (4 TDs, 1 FG) against the Cardinals and in Week 1 they put up 21 (3 FGs, 2 TDs) versus the Falcons. I’d expect New Orleans to get at least five scores again in the Superdome especially with injuries to the Miami front seven.
For the second consecutive week, we split and lost another 20 cents ($20). On the season, we’re down $40 despite going 3-1 (75%) in our Best Bets. Team totals haven’t been a sound investment (0-2) so far but it’s a new week. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Dallas-San Diego 46½
Best Under: Seattle-Houston 41½
Best Team Total: Over Washington 23½
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Under 50 Pittsburgh-Minnesota
Under 50½ Seattle-Houston
Over 37½ Dallas-San Diego
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