Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Larry Ness

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

The Texas Rangers ended a seven-game losing streak with a 7-1 win Tuesday night at Tampa but lost again last night 4-3, in 12 innings. The Rangers are now a woeful 3-13 in September and last nights defeat caused them to fall one game back of the Rays for the ALs top wild card spot. Texas hardly has any margin of error in holding on to the No.2 wild card spot, as Cleveland is just a half-game back, Baltimore only one game back plus even the NYY and KC haven?t given up hope at 2 1/2 games back.

Texas and Tampa Bay complete their four-game series tonight, with Yu Darvish squaring off against Matt Moore. Darvish ranks third in the AL in ERA (2.79) but is a modest 12-9 on the season. He?s allowed only 132 hits in 193.2 innings plus owns a 256-68 KW ratio. Looking deeper we find that the Rangers are just 14-15 in his 29 starts in 2013, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$1,425, which ranks third-worst among all MLB pitchers. He enters this start winless in his last six outings (also with a career-worst four-start losing streak / team is 0-6!), all coming despite a 3.38 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 40 innings over those six outings!

Meanwhile, Matt Moore?s 3.11 ERA, 103 hits allowed in 136 innings plus a 129-66 KW ratio has earned him a 15-3 record with the Rays, despite him missing more than a month with elbow soreness. Even more impressively, the Rays are 19-5 in his starts, or plus-$1,195 vs the moneyline, 3rd-best among all starters.

Darvish has been on the losing side of back-to-back 1-0 defeats in his last two starts and now has lost FOUR, 1-0 games this year. That hasnt occurred since 1989, when it happened to the Dodgers Orel Hershiser. Texas has the most road wins in the majors (43) but is just 14-19 overall against AL East opponents and the teams September swoon, as well as Darvishs bad luck, has me siding with the Rays in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Tony Karpinski

Clemson vs. NC State
Play: Under 66

CLemson's defense is under-rated and they are very good. Last year when these 2 teams played the total was set at 66 and the final score was 62-48 which equals 110 points. Yes, it would be very easy to assume this is a 38-35 game or even higher, based on not only last years' game but the very fact that Clemson is much better on defense it was their highest scoring game of the year and again this year the total is set at 65.5 and a primetime TV game with extra TV timeouts and rest for the players, I see a much lower scoring game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Freddy Wills

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees   

Yankees won a big game last night and the offense seemed to have turned the corner a bit with 4 runs in an inning. Sending Hiroki Kuroda to the mound on extra rest has done wonders for them and that's why I'm backing the Yankees tonight. When Kuroda is on 4 days rest he's simply average, but when he's on 5 days rest which he's been 14 times this year he posts a 2.25 ERA with 12 of 14 quality starts. I'll back him against a depleted Blue Jays line up as the Yankees have won 35 of the last 51 meetings.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Dave Price

NY Yankees -123

Look for the Yankees to continue their dominance of the Blue Jays this evening. The Yanks have won 14 of 18 against the Jays this season, and they are 5-1 in Kuroda's last 6 starts versus Toronto. It is also worth noting that the Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite, 4-1 in Kuroda's last 5 starts as a favorite and 10-4 in his last 14 starts versus a team with a losing record. Toronto has dropped 7 of its last 9 at home and is 2-5 in Redmond's last 7 starts. Take New York.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Jeff Alexander

Tampa Bay Rays +102

The Rays are showing value in the home dog role against a Texas club that has dropped 13 of 16. Additionally, the Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite and 0-6 in Darvish's last 6 starts. The Rays are 24-11 in their last 35 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 21-5 in Moore's last 26 starts. Bet the Rays.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Kansas City Under 51: Two Eagles games so far and I have played the Under in both and have lost both. Let's hope that 3rd time is a charm. Andy Ried knows what he's up against here in facing the high flying Eagles, and he also knows that the best way to combat their offense is to keep that offense on the sidelines with long time consuming drives. The Chiefs do have the type of offense to pull that off as they have a strong ground attack and a QB that protects the ball and likes to play the ball control offense. Also keeping the ball away from the Eagles offense will keep a very solid KC defense fresher throughout the game. Yes the Eagles offense is a fast paced one, but they don't always score and I see them as having fewer chances at scoring in this one. The UNDER is 21-5-1 in KC's last 27 games on grass and I see that trend continuing here with a game that should be played in the lower 40's at best.


Clemson/ NC State UNDER 66: The Clemson Tigers are highly ranked this year and most of that is due to their high powered offense, but what makes this Clemson team more complete this year is their improved defense. They may not have looked improved in the game vs Georgia, but they did make key plays when need and this NC State offense is not nearly as good as the Bulldogs offense. NC State has averaged 493 ypg so far, but La Tech and Richmond don't have the defense that the Tigers have. Clemson can score a ton on offense, but NC State defense is not that bad and it is better than that of Georgia. Clemson will still get their points, but they should be held to under 40 points, while NC State should be good for no more than 21. 35-21 sounds about right. KEY TRENDS--- The UNDER is 15-1 in NC State's last 16 Thursday night games, while the UNDER is 8-2 in Clemson's last 10 Thursday night games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Dr. Bob

Clemson (-13½) 37 NC STATE 28

Clemson’s 38-35 home win over Georgia to start the season wasn’t really that impressive given that the Tigers were outgained 469 yards at 6.3 yards per play to 551 yards at 8.0 yppl by the Bulldogs in that game. Clemson’s defense is still not good enough to list them among the elite teams in the nation and I rate that unit at just 0.3 yards per play better than average, which is an improvement over last season’s sub-par stop unit. NC State won’t have much success stopping Clemson from scoring their usual 35 points plus, but the Wolfpack have an improved offense this season with quarterback Pete Thomas averaging 7.4 yards per pass play (although against teams that would allow 7.3 yppl to an average quarterback). Clemson is an overrated team and my ratings favor the Tigers by just 10 points in this game and conference road favorites off a bye week are just 67-105-2 ATS if they won their previous 2 or more games before their bye and are visiting a team with revenge. I like the dog in this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Craig Davis

Call me a glutton for punishment, but I'm going right back to the Yankees as your free play of the day, thinking that Hiroki Kuroda can get the job done vs. Toronto.

I'm looking at the talent up and down the Yankees lineup and still in disbelief that this team isn't at least the front runner for the Wild Card. Shoot, they are still three games behind Tampa and Texas for the top Wild Card spot and still looking up at Cleveland and Baltimore.

They have to pass at least three of those four teams to even have a shot to get into the post-season... and even then they have to win one game against someone's ace to earn a spot in the real playoffs.

But that being said, their schedule plays out pretty nicely for Yankees fans down the stretch, with home games against San Francisco and Tampa before hitting the road to finish the season at lowly Houston. If they don't at least sweep the Giants and Astros, they likely don't have a shot.

So tonight they must win against a team under .500 and somehow, through two games, they have split the series with the Jays.

Kuroda is only 11-11 on the season despite his 3.13 ERA. Granted, much of the reason for his low ERA is a July that saw him allow only two earned runs the entire month... beating some of the best pitchers in baseball.

His 2-1 record in four starts vs. Toronto this year also has me excited, as I believe he gets back on track tonight and gives his team another workman-like performance.

Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.

2♦ N.Y. YANKEES

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Jeff Benton

Thursday's freebie is the Tampa Bay Rays with Moore over the Texas Rangers with Yu Darvish.

Texas blew their chance for the four game split last night when they dropped the game to Tampa in the 12th inning, as the Rangers have now lost 8 of their last 9 games.

Tampa meanwhile is now on a 5-2 upswing, and they do have 15 game winner Matt Moore on the hill in the series finale.

Moore is 1-0 his last 3 starts with an ERA under 1.00, and the Rays have been able to win 21 of his last 26 starts.

Compare that to Darvish who cannot seem to get any support for his cause when he takes the ball to the hill, as the Texas hurler is 0-4 his last 6 starts, but he has gotten no support his last two times to the hill, as he has allowed just 2 earned runs to score in his 14 innings of work, but has been on the short side of a pair of 1-0 finals!

It is a free-fall for Ron Washington's team, and I do not see things changing tonight.

Take Tampa as the small home favorite to add on another loss to Texas' epic September collapse.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Brad Wilton

My Thursday night comp play will be to lay the road wood with the Yankees as they close out their season series with the Blue Jays.

New York looked all but dead last night, then a 4 run 8th inning coupled with a Mariano Rivera save (stranding runners on 2nd & 3rd in the 9th), lets the Yankees live another day.

With Hiroki Kuroda certainly struggling as we head into the last 10 games of the season, I am just looking for a quality start that gives the Yanks a boost before they head back to the Bronx for their final home stand of the year.

Kuroda will work against Todd Redmond, and Redmond did record a win over the Yankees the last time he faced them, working 5-plus innings of 2 run ball back on August 28th.

The Yankees playoff chances don't look good, but at least they still have a chance which is more than you can say for the Blue Jays.

I will lay it with Kuroda and the Yanks to leave Canada with the "W".

2♦ N.Y. YANKEES

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Scott Delaney

My free play is on the New York Yankees tonight, laying money in Toronto, as I think they'll get it done for a second-straight night. And make note I want you listing both Hiroki Kuroda and Todd Redmond in this game, as I think it's a rematch made in heaven.

While I know Kuroda has appeared to be fatigued for about a month now, he will be out to exact revenge for an Aug. 28 meeting, in which Redmond and the Blue Jays swatted the pinstripes around, 7-2.

So even though he is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA in six starts since Aug. 17, the Yankees begin the day 2-1/2 games back of the Texas Rangers for the second American League wild card spot with just 10 games remaining, and "must-win" is an understatement.

Longshot? Maybe. But if Redmond has been pitching so good - he is 2-0 mark with a 2.19 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 37 innings at Rogers Centre - and Kuroda is ice cold, why is the line in favor of the Bombers?

Take the favorite here.

3♦ N.Y. YANKEES

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Harry Bondi

Kansas City / Philadelphia Under 51

Kansas City has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. They are loaded with young playmakers who have limited their two opponents this year, Dallas and Jacksonville, to a total of 19 points. Granted, Philadelphia is much more explosive offensively than either of those teams but KC has been solid defensively especially on the road where they have held 4 of their last 5 opponents under the posted total dating back to last year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Anyone have goldsheet for tonight and this weekend?

Matthew Whitaker
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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, September 19

Matthew Whitaker wrote:

Anyone have goldsheet for tonight and this weekend?

Find all of them here

http://www.thespread.com/forum?task=top … juW2z8pjoA

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