College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4
College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4
Games to Watch - Week 4
By Brian Edwards
Arizona State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Stanford (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Todd Graham’s team was extremely fortunate to beat Wisconsin 32-30 as a six-point home favorite Saturday night in Tempe. Stanford won 34-20 at Army but never threatened to cover the number. Most books are listing the Cardinal as a 7 ½ or eight-point ‘chalk.’ Stanford is an abysmal 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite. Since 2011, ASU is 1-4-1 ATS as a road underdog. These Pac-12 rivals haven’t met since 2010 when Jim Harbaugh’s last team picked up a 17-13 win at ASU. However, the Cardinal failed to cover as a 4 ½-point road favorite. Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
Michigan State (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Notre Dame (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)
As of early Sunday night, most books had Notre Dame favored by 6 ½ or seven. During Mark Dantonio’s tenure, Michigan St. owns an 11-3 spread record in 14 games as a road underdog. The Spartans are the nation’s top-ranked defense in total yards allowed, surrendering just 177.0 per game. They finally got decent quarterback play in Week 3 when Connor Cook threw four TD passes without an interception. Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS this year after failing to cover in Saturday’s 31-24 win at Purdue as a 17-point road favorite. Irish QB Tommy Rees has 960 passing yards and a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brian Kelly’s team has cashed tickets at a 7-9-3 ATS pace in 19 games as a home favorite on his watch. NBC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Florida (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
The Gators have won eight in a row over UT, including last season’s 37-20 victory in Knoxville as three-point underdogs. Most books had UF favored by 14 or 14 ½ on Sunday night. Will Muschamp’s team had an open date after losing a 21-16 decision at Miami. QB Jeff Driskel sprained his knee against the Hurricanes, but he’s ‘probable’ and expected to start vs. UT. UF starting OG Jon Halapio is poised to make his season debut after missing the first two games with a strained pectoral muscle. Butch Jones’s team took a 59-14 shellacking Saturday at Oregon as a 29-point road underdog. UF is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite under Muschamp. CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
North Carolina (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Georgia Tech (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
North Carolina opened the season with a 27-10 loss at South Carolina. Next, the Tar Heels beat Middle Tennessee 40-20 as 19 ½-point home favorites. They had an open date following the win over the Blue Raiders. Senior QB Bryn Renner, who had a 28/7 TD-INT ratio last year, has thrown a pair of TD passes and one interception. RB Romar Morris has rushed for a pair of scores and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Ga. Tech has won four in a row and seven of the last eight against UNC, including a 68-50 triumph in Chapel Hill last season. The Yellow Jackets are 2-0 both SU and ATS with wins vs. Elon (70-0) and at Duke (38-14). Vad Lee threw four TD passes and ran for another score against the Blue Devils. Most books have tabbed Paul Johnson’s team as a six-point favorite. Johnson’s team is in the midst of a 7-1 ATS run dating back to 2012. ESPN will have the telecast at noon Eastern.
Arkansas (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Rutgers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Due to the uncertain status of Rutgers QB Gary Nova, there was no line as of early Sunday night. Arkansas will be seeking revenge for last season’s 35-26 loss to the Scarlet Knights as a 9 ½-point home favorite. The Razorbacks are off to a 3-0 start under new coach Brett Bielema, but they have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back outings. Arky is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. RU is 3-5 ATS as a home favorite during Kyle Flood’s tenure. Since losing a 52-51 overtime decision at Fresno St. in its opener, Rutgers has won a pair of games over Norfolk St. (38-0) and Eastern Michigan (28-10). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Re: College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4
College Football Handicapping: What to do with bad football teams?
By Andrew Lange
We're through Week 3 of the college football season and for a few teams it's been a struggle. Some of those struggles oddsmakers and bettors spotted well in advance while others weren't as obvious. Let's take a look at some of these teams and decide whether or not they have "bet on" potential moving forward.
Wake Forest (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) - For years the Demon Deacons fielded a competitive team with pointspread value under long-time head coach Jim Grobe. But the program has unquestionably deteriorated with records of 5-7, 3-9, 6-7, and 5-7 the last four years. Even with solid turnover margins of +8 and +9 – a staple under Grobe –the last two seasons, Wake looks outmanned and slow compared to the rest of the ACC. They're off to a 1-2 start and once again can't run the football (86.3 ypg) or find consistency in the passing game with senior Tanner Price. This is likely a do-or-die season Grobe and I don't see many more chances for straight up wins on the schedule. This week's price of -3 at Army tells us all we need to know about Wake's place in the betting markets.
Florida International (0-3 SU/ATS) - Pretty amazing that in Week 1, FIU opened +18 at Maryland and three weeks later is +41 at Louisville. This is a bad football program, besieged with injuries and suspensions, and asked to compete under the command of one of the worst coaching hires in recent memory. Obviously much of the value is gone but when you lose at home to Bethune-Cookman by 21 there's no reason to stop firing away against a squad that will probably cover a game or two on accident but will need a major turnover to finish .500 ATS the rest of the way.
Idaho (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) - Like FIU, bettors could get enough of betting against the Vandals. They were outscored 82-16 their first two games but showed up last week at home and played relatively even with Northern Illinois in a 45-35 loss. Keep in mind Idaho was +16.5 at North Texas in Week 1 and +30 at home against Northern Illinois two weeks later. Because of its Independent status, the schedule is tough. They do play home games against Temple, Texas State, and Old Dominion. Perhaps there’s a win or two to be had but expect bettors to continue the fade – especially on the road vs. better competition.
South Florida (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) - We know the Bulls have talent, and we know Willie Taggert can coach. But without a quarterback or any semblance of offense, USF is a tough team to support. I do however see positives most notably a likely change at quarterback and a bye week following last week's embarrassing 28-10 home loss to Florida Atlantic. They'll be catching big points against Miami next time out. Note that the Canes open ACC play against Georgia Tech (and the option!) the following week. Perhaps time to step in and take advantage of what should be plenty of value.
San Diego State (0-2 SU/ATS) - Another team that doesn't have stability at the quarterback position. The Aztecs admitted they didn't game plan or put much creativity into Week 1's loss to Eastern Illinois. And a trip to Ohio State isn't the ideal situation to figure things out. SDSU comes in off a bye week and plays host to Oregon State who won an overtime barnburner at Utah and has its conference home opener on deck. The spot and price (+11) is right to back SDSU but the drop-off from quarterbacks Ryan Lindley and Ryan Katz is very noticeable.