Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 13

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 13

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF
Air Force at Boise State
The Falcons look to take advantage of a Boise State team that is coming off a 63-14 victory over Tennessee-Martin and is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in the previous game. Air Force is the pick (+24) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+24)

Game 109-110: Air Force at Boise State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 79.848; Boise State 90.236
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Boise State by 24; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+24); Under

CFL

Hamilton at Calgary
The Stampeders look to build on their 22-5-1 ATS record in their last 28 Friday games. Calgary is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-6)

Game 291-292: Hamilton at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 112.367; Calgary 127.646
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 15 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Calgary by 6; 57
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-6); Under

WNBA

Atlanta at Chicago
The Dream look to build on their 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games when playing with 1 days rest. Atlanta is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7)

Game 601-602: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 102.223; Indiana 109.032
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 9 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+9 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Connecticut at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 104.449; Washington 111.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 7; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 9 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Atlanta at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.986; Chicago 116.967
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); Over

Game 607-608: San Antonio at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 104.944; Phoenix 117.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 156 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Baltimore at Toronto
The Orioles look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is 4-12 in its last 16 games as a home underdog. Baltimore is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 14.827; Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.411
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-170); Over

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Washington (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.015; Washington (Strasburg) 15.589
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+210); Under

Game 955-956: Miami at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Hand) 13.738; NY Mets (Niese) 15.322
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 957-958: San Diego at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.406; Atlanta (Hale) 14.291
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 16.809; Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.295
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-150); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 15.434; Arizona (McCarthy) 14.655
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 963-964: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.645; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.252
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+170); Over

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 15.604; White Sox (Santiago) 14.244
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 16.537; Detroit (Verlander) 15.673
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Over

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 16.675; Toronto (Redmond) 15.071
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.728; Boston (Lackey) 17.345
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over

Game 973-974: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.683; Texas (Holland) 14.034
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Under

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 16.655; Houston (Keuchel) 15.278
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Over

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.154; Minnesota (Correia) 15.157
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under

Game 979-980: Seattle at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 13.183; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.786
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under

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Jim Feist

Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Pick: Miami Marlins

Miami calls up lefty Brad Hand, a good young arm from Triple AAA who has seen major league action in the past. In fact, he has a 2.13 ERA in 12+ innings against these Mets. The Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 2-9 in their last 11 home games and goes with lefty Jonathon Niese, who is 2-5 with a 4.16 ERA against Miami. He is prone to walks (43 in 116+ innings) and the Mets are 2-7 in Niese's last 9 home starts. The Mets are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and the Marlins are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

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Jimmy Boyd

Texas Rangers -132

The Rangers have played extremely well against division opponents this season. They have a 46-20 record, scoring 5.5 runs per game on a .271 batting average. They will have a big advantage in this game with Derek Holland getting the start. Holland has a 3.16 ERA at home this season and a 3.17 overall ERA.

Oakland will give the start to Daniel Straily. On the road Straily has posted a 4.44 ERA and 1.329 WHIP. I expect run support to be a major issue for his A's teammates since they average 3.9 runs per game on a .244 batting average against left-handed starters. You should play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Texas when their bullpen has an ERA that is 3.33 or better on the season, and they are against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. This system is 215-100 (68.3%) over the last 5 seasons.

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Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Pirates -165

The Pirates are too high a favorite to unit rate but for a free play they do fit a solid 19-4 power system that we use direct from the database that plays on home favorites with a total that is 8 or less and are off a home favored win vs this team last night while scoring 4 or less runs with no more than 1 errors, vs an opponent off road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits, like the Cubs last night. The Pirates took the opener of the series and should roll again here tonight against a Chicago team that has lost 15 of 18 as a road dog off a road loss when scoring 2 or less runs. The Pirates have the better pitching numbers with C. Morton over Chicago starter J. Arietta who has a 7.36 road era. Look for the Pirates to take another.

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Justin Bay

Colorado Rockies +1½ -150

Tyler Chatwood
- Away: 2.60 ERA, .243 OBA
- September: 3.38 ERA, .281 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, .217 OBA
- Post All Star: 5.01 ERA, .333 OBA
- Arizona hitters vs. Chatwood in his career: .350 BA

Brandon McCarthy
- Season vs. COL: 12.0 IP, 17 H, 10 ER, .327 OBA
- Home: 3.94 ERA, .268 OBA
- September: 2.65 ERA, .183 OBA
- Last Start: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, .214 OBA
- Post All Star: 4.15 ERA, .255 OBA
- Rockies hitters vs. McCarthy in his career: .345 BA

It's hard to look past the fact that the Rockies have torn apart McCarthy this season. Chatwood has been pitching well lately and I think he will be able to keep the Rockies close in this game with the run support that he will be getting.

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Bruce Marshall

Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

Although New York hasn't fared well this season against tonight's foe Miami, which has won 10 of 15 previous meetings, the Marlins are nonetheless a welcome sight for the Mets after they were just swept in a 4-game series by the hot Nats. Meanwhile, we wonder if Miami can recapture the emotional high of Wednesday's win over the Braves in Jose Fernandez' last start of the season; the air was certainly out of the balloon on Thursday when getting a mere one hit in a 6-1 loss vs. Atlanta. And if the Mets bounce back they likely do it behind ace Jonathon Niese, who went 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA over his previous four starts before allowing six runs in six innings of his 9-4 loss at Cleveland on Saturday. He gave up four runs over 27 2-3 frames during his hot stretch, but he gave up five in the first inning to the Indians before settling down thereafter. Niese and the Mets are worth a look tonight.

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Will Rogers

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Cincinnati

Milwaukee surprised St. Louis on the road Thursday, winning 5-3, thereby avoiding a three-game sweep.  The Reds had off after avoiding a three-game sweep themselves with a 6-0 win Wednesday afternoon over the Chicago Cubs. Still in the thick of a pennant race, I feel Cincinnati easily gets the job done here with Mat Latos on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Latos - The righty has had a solid year, going 14-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 29 starts.  He has been especially good in recent years when working on five or six days rest, turning in a 20-4 TSR dating back to the start of last season.

2. Kyle Lohse - It has been a rough recent stretch for the Brewers starter, who gave up seven runs in his most recent start, which lasted only five innings.  He allowed 11 hits as well and his ERA over his last three starts is now 7.16.  It was the second time during that stretch he allowed at least 11 hits in less than six innings.

3.  X-Factor - The Reds are 34-11 over the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite.

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Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Boise State/ Air Force Under 57: Air Force is a running team and they will need to use that running game to control the clock and keep this strong Boise State offense off the field. The Broncos do have a strong offense, but not really an explosive quick scoring one like they have had in the past and that should really help keep the scoring down. The Bronco defense is usually one of the better in the nation, but have started slow this year with just 4 starters back. Chris Peterson usually recruits well on that side and I expect the defense to start to show improvements. Both teams can score, but they will do so wil time consuming drives, which should keep this game in the lower 50's at best.

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Paul Desmond

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play:New York Yankees

Lackey finally got some run support and a win in his last start, though it was one of his worst of the season. Pitching vs. the Yankees, the righty gave up eight hits and seven runs over 5 2/3 innings. Lackey is 2-1 with a 5.79 ERA against New York TY. He was matched up vs Kuroda on July 20th, and lost 5-2 after giving up 10 hits. Kuroda has cooled off a bit as of late, but he had a nice outing vs. the Yankees last week and we feel like the Yankees will win 2 of 3 this weekend, starting today. He has a 22K/ 4 BB ratio in 4 starts vs. the Red Sox. Kuroda is in better current form as an underdog..And i still believe the Yanks are going to sneak in the playoffs.-

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Nick Parsons

Tampa Bay Rays -155

I gave out a free winner on the Dodgers yesterday. I normally don't play favorites of that size, but felt that the motivational and situational factors working on LA's side, justified in laying the larger price.

Tampa Bay finds itself in a similar spot today and I believe it offers similar value as the Dodgers did last night.

Chris Archer (8-7, 3.19 ERA)

The Rays' starter is coming off an outing to forget vs. the Mariners on Saturday, allowing three runs off four hits with one walk while striking out two over four innings of work in his team's eventual 6-2 setback.

Archer though for the most part has been as solid as the Rays could have possibly hoped for and he'll bring his respectable 3.91 ERA road record into Minnesota (note that Archer has enjoyed success vs. the Twinkies already this year, giving up just one run over six innings back on July 9th).

Kevin Correia (9-11, 4.30 ERA)

Correia is also coming off a horrible start, getting shelled for five runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in an 11-2 loss to Toronto on Saturday.

The veteran has now allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. While Correia does own a good 3.44 ERA home record this year, note that he's a sub-par 4-9, 5.02 ERA in all "night games" to date.

The Bottom Line

A big game and a big series for the Rays who are clinging to the AL's second wild-card position. A date vs. the lowly Twins is just what the doctor ordered as they've won nine straight in this series by a whopping margin of 52-25.

No such luck for the home side though which has gone just 2-6 its last eight, managing a meagre 27 runs during the ugly little slide.

Tampa Bay finally broke through with an emotional 4-3 victory over the Red Sox last night and comes into this contest with a ton of momentum: "We needed it bad ... we needed to win bad," said the Ray's Wil Myers, who is 12 for 31. "With the wild-card getting tight, we needed a win here."

Keep your eyes on Myers who is hitting .354 with six home runs and 18 RBIs over his last 26 away from friendly confines.

The overwhelming situational and motivational factors working in favor of the visitors makes this a price we can live with.

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Bill Biles

Boise State -23½

Boise State looks to get back on track after a early season lose. They got back on track last week by scoring 63 points in a rout. The Air Force team will be without their starting QB who is nursing a knee injury, so it will be tough for Air Force to keep up scoring wise with Boise State.

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Steve Janus

Reds/Brewers Under 7½

I expect to see a low scoring game Friday night between the Reds and Brewers. Cincinnati will send out Mat Latos against the Brewers Kyle Lohse. Both have strong home/away splits that favor a pitchers duel tonight. Latos is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA over 16 road starts, while Lohse is 6-3 with 3.03 ERA in 14 home starts.

Neither team comes in swinging the bats all that well. The Reds are coming off a 10-game homestand where they scored 3 or fewer runs in half their games, including three of the last four. The Brewers have scored a grand total of 11 runs over their last 4 games.

The UNDER is 30-16 in the Brewers last 46 games when they are listed as an underdog of +125 to +175, 22-9 in Lohse's last 31 starts following a win, 25-8 in the Reds last 33 games played in September, 7-3 in the Reds last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 5-0 in Latos' last 5 starts as a road favorite.

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MLB Predictions

Rockies @ Diamondbacks Under 9

The Rockies finished off a series with the Giants on Wednesday losing 2 of 3 and they've now lost 7 of their last 9 games overall. During their last 6 games they've scored 3 or fewer runs 5 times. The Dbacks took one from the Dodgers on Wednesday but had lost three straight games prior to that. Arizona has really struggled putting up runs lately, scoring no more than 4 runs in a game over their last 14 games where they are averaging just 2.29 runs per game. Tonight the Rockies will send Tyler Chatwood to the mound who is 7-4 on the season with a 3.17 ERA, .279 OBA and 1.42 WHIP. Away from hitters friendly Coors Field Chatwood is 3-2 with a low 2.60 ERA, .243 OBA and 1.18 WHIP. He pitched well in his latest start going 6 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 earned run. Bradon McCarthy will counter for Arizona and he is 4-9 on the season with a 4.66 ERA. At home his numbers are much better as he is 2-4 with a 3.94 ERA, .268 OBA and 1.14 WHIP. In his last start he went 8 innings giving up 6 hits and just 1 earned run with 6 strikeouts and a walk. Take note that the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the Rockies last 6 overall, 13-4-5- in their last 22 road games, and 6-1 in Chatwood's last 7 road starts. The UNDER is 6-2 in the Diamondbacks last 8 overall, 5-2 in their last 7 home games, and 5-0 in McCarthy's last 5 home starts. The UNDER is also 18-6-2 in these two teams last 26 meetings and 12-3-2 in their last 17 meetings in Arizona. Take the UNDER.

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Wunderdog

Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Toronto +114

The Toronto Blue Jays were expected to contend in the AL East, but with already having played 107 games vs. teams .500 or better, the division and schedule has been an improbable task. Baltimore blew a huge opportunity at home vs. the surging Yankees, dropping three straight after winning the opener, and they could be feeling a bit hung over here, losing last night on a wild pitch. Jason Hammel has been their worst option all season as his ERA stands at 5.11, and the Jays do swing the bats. The Orioles are desperate for a win, but face a tall order here behind Hammel, as they are just 1-10 in his last 11 starts. Baltimore's track record here has been a dismal, 12-39 in their last 51 played over the border. Play is on Toronto.

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BOISE STATE (-23½) 37 Air Force 16SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise State applies to a very good 142-60-2 ATS situation but I’m still going to lean with Air Force. The Broncos bounced back from their 6-38 loss at Washington by beating up on Tennessee Martin 63-14. However, Boise’s starters only out-gained Tennessee Martin by 1.6 yards per play and UTM would be outgained by an average FBS team on the road by 1.6 yppl – so the Broncos’ performance was just average from the line of scrimmage in that game. Boise was considerably worse than average in their blowout loss at Washington and laying 3 touchdowns against Air Force is a tall task. I still rate Boise as a better than average team but they’re not nearly as good as they were in the Kellen Moore years and my under 10 wins futures bet is looking pretty good right now. Air Force is without starting quarterback Kale Pearson, who was hurt in the opener, but backup Jaleel Awini is considered to be a better passer and Pearson’s rushing numbers over his career are not good so I don’t think Pearson being out is an issue. My ratings only favor Boise State by 16 ½ points and the line went up from 21 points to 23 ½ points, so I’m not going to back the Broncos despite the 142-60-2 ATS situation that applies to them in this game.

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Lee Williams

Air Force vs. Boise State
Play: Air Force +24

This is not Boise offense of years past and it wont be as easy tonight as it was last week against FCS opposition.Air Force was drubbed last week against Utah.St and we expect they will be better prepared and also bring some solid intensity to Boise tonight. Look for a cleaner game tonight from Falcons along with some clock eating drives to shorten game. Take Points here.

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Larry Ness

Oakland vs. Texas
Pick: Texas

The Texas Rangers have gone from three games up in the AL West to 3 1/2 games back of the Oakland A’s with EIGHT losses in their last 10 games to open September. It’s been a combination of struggles at the plate (Rangers have averaged 3.4 RPG this month) and on the mound (pitching staff has posting a 5.40 ERA over the last seven games). As for the A’s, they trailed Texas by three games before play began Aug 30 but 10 wins in 13 games since (along with Texas’ slump), has them in line to win the AL West for a second straight season.

The teams open a VERY important three-game series tonight, in Arlington. Some good news for Texas fans is that Thursday marked an “off day” but it was also the final day off before playing 17 straight to end the season. "Our heart is still in it. We've just got to do what we have to do to make sure we win ball games, that's all," manager Ron Washington said. "I'm not concerned. We'll be ready to play with Oakland coming to town." Derek Holland takes the mound on Friday for Texas, looking to bounce back from his recent struggles.

He’s 9-8 with a 3.17 ERA on the season but has lost two straight starts, giving up four runs and walking a career worst-tying five in 4.2 innings of a 4-2 loss to the A's on Sept 2 before allowing eight runs (four earned) over 5.2 innings of last Saturday's 8-3 loss to the Angels. "Our pitching is going to get going again," Holland told the team's official website. "Myself, I've had a couple bad starts here and there. I'm going to turn the page." Note that Holland is 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 11 career starts against the A's (team is 8-3). The A's look to keep winning behind Dan Straily (9-7, 4.15 ERA). He has a 1.50 ERA during his current three-game winning streak but has a 5.14 ERA against the Rangers in three starts this year (has won TWO of the three).

Texas led the AL West from mid-April to late September in 2012, but lost NINE of its final 13 (including a three-game sweep in Oakland to end the regular season that gave the A's the division title), before losing to Baltimore at home in the wild-card game. Holland can begin to “change that script” with a win here. That’s my bet. I’ll worry about Saturday and Sunday’s games, starting tomorrow.

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Dave Price

LA Dodgers -178

With last night's loss, the Giants fell to 1-6 in their last 7 against the Dodgers. It was also their fourth consecutive defeat at Dodger Stadium. Bumgarner has good numbers against the Dodgers (2.58 ERA in 10 starts), but his numbers pale in comparison with what Kershaw has done against the Giants (1.33 ERA in 20 starts). Bumgarner has turned in a decent season, but he's been getting hardly any run support lately. As a result, the Giants are 1-6 in his last 7 starts, including 0-4 on the road during this span. Kershaw has been unstoppable against punchless lineups like San Francisco that average 3.8 runs or less per game. In fact, the Dodgers are 20-2 since the beginning of the 2011 season in his starts versus such NL opponents. This trend tightens up to a perfect 13-0 if the start takes place in the second half of the season. Take LA.

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