Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Dave Essler

Saints / Bucs Under 47.5

If this game were in New Orleans, maybe. But not on the road and not on grass and not w/Revis, who was brought in specifically to challenge both the Saints and the Falcons big-play offenses. And of course the Bucs are not foolish enough to try and get into a shootout here, and I am a believer in the Saints defense. Just way too many ways this stays under the number here, barring BS turnovers in their own territory leading to easy scores. Gave this out at 47.5 early in the week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Harry Bondi

Cleveland / Baltimore Under 44

As we mentioned in this week's Bondi Bulletin, Baltimore has absolutely owned Cleveland in this series. Not only have the Ravens won 10 straight, but they have held the Browns to just 11 points per game during that time. Browns QB Brandon Weeden continues to prove he is not a legit NFL starter and the addition of Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator isn't helping matters. The last four games in this series have gone under, with an average total of 40 and today's number is four points higher than that. The Browns have been a dead "under" team over the last three seasons, cashing the under in 22 of their last 32 games, including a 2-9 over/under record when the number is in this range. It's another low-scoring Browns game. Go under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Bob Balfe

Baltimore Ravens -7

The Ravens are not going to be Super Bowl Champs, but they are not as bad as how they looked on opening night. Cleveland on the other hand looked awful and I don’t think these are problems that can be fixed overnight. The offensive line was horrible, running game was brutal, quarterback play stunk and the list goes on. This is a bad football team. The Ravens could not have drew a better match up for this afternoon. Baltimore still has playmakers on defense and I believe wins this game with ease. Take the Ravens.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Rocketman

Dallas @ Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -3
     
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.  Both of these teams opened up with a win in their opener.  Dallas is 2-8 ATS last 3 years after a division game.  Dallas is 3-7 ATS last 10 games after an ATS win.  Dallas is 4-14 ATS last 18 games after a SU win.  The Home team is 3-0-1 ATS last 4 meetings overall in this series.  Dallas is a public favorite and still getting 3 points in this one.  I smell something that just isn't right with the lowly Chiefs giving up points.  So we'll side with them here today.  We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City today!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Craig Davis

It's crazy to think the Tampa Bay Bucs blew that lead last week vs. the Jets when it seemed as if they dominated pretty much throughout the contest.

I'm not sure if this selection is more against Tampa Bay or for New Orleans. Either way, I know it's a huge game for the Saints because they could go 2-0 in the division to start the season... and not many teams have a chance to start out of the gates with two division wins.

The Saints beat the Falcons last week in a game that was back and forth and very exciting to watch for both sides. While I still have some questions about the Saints defense, they did do better than they did in most games a year ago and the offense worked out some kinks early and finally settled in.

If Doug Martin looked like half the player he was last year, I might be a little leery to release the Saints in this spot today, but until the Bucs get the run game going, Josh Freeman and the pass game are going to struggle.

Take New Orleans as your free play of the day, and buy the half point down on the Saints at -4 and -3 1/2 points.

4♦ NEW ORLEANS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is a total, as I go Under in the Dolphins-Colts meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Indy opened the season a week ago with a 21-17 win over Oakland that wound up staying Under the total, while Miami picked up a 23-10 road win and Under at Cleveland last Sunday afternoon.

Have to believe we are in store for a game that features a combined amount of points similar to what the teams just put on the board a week ago. Ryan Tannehill is looking better this season, but remember the Dolphins could only muster a measly 23 yards rushing in last week's win over the Brownies.

Dating back to last season, Miami's last 4 games have all played low, and the 'Fins are on an overall 10-2-1 Under clip their last 13 since last year.

As for Indianapolis, they too have been on the low side of things, holding Under the total in each of their last 5 games since last year, and 10 of their last 13 overall.

The oddsmakers have posted a total in the low 40's, but I am not sure I see much more than 38 or 39 points combined being scored in this one.

Dolphins-Colts Under the total.

2♦ MIAMI-INDIANAPOLIS UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Brad Wilton

Sunday free play winner comes in the NFL, as I go with New Orleans and Tampa Bay to hold Under the posted total.

Both teams opened the season last Sunday by playing Under the total, and it sure looks like the linesmakers have set the bar a little too high on today's total as well.

With Sean Payton back as head coach, the public tends to feel that the Saints will post some big points anytime they step on the field, but the fact of the matter is New Orleans could only come up with 23 points in their win over the Falcons last Sunday. Also consider that Rob Ryan was brought in to tighten things up defensively, and after holding Atlanta to just 17 points, so far so good for the Saints on defense.

Dating back to last season, the Bucs have now been Under the total in 5 straight games. Included in that streak is the 2nd game between these two division rivals. In fact, 5 of the last 6 series meetings between the Saints and the Buccaneers have held Under the total. This one does too!

3♦ NEW ORLEANS-TAMPA BAY UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Brett Atkins

On the heels of a winning total yesterday on the Central Michigan/UNLV game staying Under, I want you playing the Denver Broncos over the New York Giants in Manning Bowl III.

I'm done listening to all the chatter of how much the Giants will want to win this game, and how they're nothing like the team that coughed the ball up six times in Week 1.

What about the Denver Broncos who have been off for 10 days since shellacking the Baltimore Ravens in a game that saw Peyton Manning roast the defending champs for more than 400 yards passing and seven touchdowns?

This is indeed the dangerous team everyone thought it would be, as free-agent acquisition Wes Welker had nine catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns in his Broncos debut while athletic tight end Julius Thomas hauled in five passes for 110 yards and two scores.

I have to simply look at the game, look at the teams and say 'Who is going to win this football game' and know the Broncos are the right side.

By the way, with the line sitting on 4.5, you should highly consider buying the half point off this game. It's a suggested move, as you don't want to get beat by the hook in the event a backdoor cover comes into play.

1♦ DENVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Chris Jordan

Last week my free winner on Sunday was on the New Orleans Saints laying the points against the Atlanta Falcons, a solid win. This week I'm back on the Saints laying points in Tampa Bay, and due to the fact we're seeing a 4-point spread, I want you buying the half point off this line, in the event the backdoor is left open.

I'm sorry, but I'm not buying into the any reason this team should be laying this low a number against the struggling Buccaneers. I think Who Dat is back with Sean Payton back at the helm.

Sure, the Saints' defense was the worst in the history of Pop Warner football last season, and the way it allowed points and yardage was ridiculous. Good thing is, it can only get better. And you can't tell me that unit won't be out to improve immediately.

Heck, even without Payton and that defense, the Buccaneers struggled last year against New Orleans, losing both games. Sorry, but all back together again, I'm with the Saints lighting up the scoreboard, and drastically improving on D, while the Buccaneers continue to take their lumps.

1♦ NEW ORLEANS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Scott Delaney

My free winner for Sunday is on the defending champion Baltimore Ravens, laying the points against the one division rival, and team in the league, they absolutely own. After one of the worst losses in franchise history, I love the Ravens to take it to Cleveland, which they're 10-0 against since coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Joe Flacco arrived in 2008.

Baltimore has outscored its AFC North rival, 251-122, during the win streak, and if you factor in it is 33-7 at home over the past five years, I'd say this is a pretty damn good scenario.

I suspect the Ravens' defense will be fired up after getting pummeled last week in Denver, and not to mention the team will raise a championship banner for the home crowd during pregame festivities commemorating last season's championship win.

Cleveland allowed six sacks against Miami in Week 1, and now the Browns face that pissed off stop unit that includes two of the best sack specialists in the league: Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil.

I'm sorry, but this is a game the Ravens will take full advantage of, and will win big.

4♦ BALTIMORE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -1.5 +100

The Tigers are showing value on the run line at even money with Scherzer on the hill. They have won 12 of his 14 home starts this season with 10 of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. They have also won his last 7 starts against the Royals. Each of the 3 home wins during this stretch have come by 2 runs or more. Kansas City's Guthrie has been hit hard the last two times he's faced Detroit, giving up 9 runs on 23 hits in 13 innings of work. The Royals have dropped 12 of their last 16 in Detroit. Take the Tigers on the run line.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis/ Atlanta Under 47: Really feel this is a high OU Line. I know the OU is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings, but these teams have met just once just 2008. The Rams had a nice offensive showing in their first game with 299 yards passing, but I feel the Atlanta defense will pose a stiffer test, especially with this game being in Atlanta, where hey usually play very good defense. The Atlanta offense can be explosive at times, but they really do play conservative and Im sure they will look to run Stephen Jackson plenty vs his old team. That should really eat some clock. a few trends to look at here is... The Under is 20-8 when the Rams are off a SU win, and the Under is 6-0 when they are off Arizona... For Atlanta the Under is 10-3 when they face a winning team and 42-15-3 when they allowed less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. I really see this as more of a defensive battle with no more than 38 points being scored.

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO: The Buffalo Bills played a nice game last week vs the Patriots, but we also saw on Thursday night that the Pats really aren't that good of a team this year, plus we also note that the Bills are just 1-7 ATS their last 8 games after playing the Pats. Still even vs a depleted Pats offense the Bills allowed 431 yards of offense, including 273 yards through the air. The Buffalo offense didn't look that good either, putting up just 286 yards of offense, including just 150 yards through the air. They did have a nice ground attack with 136 yards, but they will be taking on a much tougher defense in this one. Last week the Panther defense shut down a solid Seattle ground game, allowing just 70 yards and 2.7 ypc in the contest. They did allow Wilson to pile up 300 yards passing, but EJ Manuel isn't ready to put up numbers like that. Cam Cameron and company didn't do much on offense in game 1, but this is a much weaker defense they will be taking on and I feel that he will have a nice bounceback game on the way to leading his Panthers to at least a 7 point victory.

New Orleans -3 over TAMPA BAY: The Bucs really struggled last week vs the Jets and ended up losing the game late. Now their is talk of a locker room divided and they must now face a New Orleans team that is on a mission. They have their Head coach back and their defense looks much stronger. This is a team that is primed to take back their division. They started last week with a solid home win over the Falcons and I feel it will continue with another win over a divisional rival. The Saints are 14-5 ATS off a ATS win, while the Bucs are just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 home games and 0-6 ATS of a non-conf road game. I look for New Orleans to start the season 2-0 with a solid win in the Sunshine State   

2 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ San Diego Under 55.5: I have a feeling this game will be lower scoring than you would expect. San Diego now has some film on this offense and the thought is that will will find a way to slow it down some. San Diego is also not really an explosive offense and they will look to take the air out of the ball and keep it away from the Philly offense by working the clock with long drives. this game will be played in the 40's.

NY GIANTS +4.5 over Denver: The Giants turned the ball over 6 times vs Dallas and yet they still had a chance to win. The Giant defense also played pretty well, holding a potent Dallas offense to just 331 yards of offense. This s the Giants home opener and Eli is itching to get back on the field after his 3 INT's last week, plus he also wants a chance to show up his older brother.  The Broncos have some sore spots in their defense as injuries and suspensions are taking their toll and they didn't really play that well on that side of the ball vs the Ravens last week and I feel that the holes in their defesne is where the Broncos will suffer in this one. Teams that have many TO's like the Giants did last week, usually respond and play a good game the next week. I expect that here as the Giants take this one outright.

1 UNIT PLAY

Detroit/ Arizona Over 48: Detroit will put up plenty of points this year, but their defense is pretty bad, so they will also give up plenty of points as well. The Arizona offense will be much improved this year now that they actually have an NFL caliber QB back there, Carson does have some weapons to throw to. The Over is 9-0 in Detroit's last 9 games vs a sub .400 opponent and the Over is 12-1 when they take to the road off a SU win, while for the Cardinals the Over is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs the NFC, plus we note that the Over is 8-1 the last 9 meetings between the teams. Look for a game in the 50's here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Sean Michaels

7-3 comp play roll heading into Sunday's selection on the Lions and Cardinals to go Over the posted price of 47 1/2 points.

Reggie Bush, who accounted for 191 yards on 25 touches in last Sunday's win at home against Minnesota, gives Matthew Stafford another huge offensive weapon. Teams can no longer afford to double coverage on Calvin Johnson because Bush will make them pay with short passes in the seams in the middle of the field in addition to proving a true running threat Detroit hasn't had in years.

Although the Lions have added to their offensive arsenal, their defense remains as shaky as ever despite a lot of high-priced talent. There is a reason they're 17-7-1 Over in their last 25 road games.

The Cardinals allowed St. Louis to score 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points last week on the road and it cost them a potential win in Bruce Arians' debut. But the bright spot was the performance of Carson Palmer, who should have similar success against a Detroit secondary that will be helpless defending against Larry Fitzgerald.

Arizona has topped the total in six of its last seven games dating back to last season and I say this trend continues today.

3* DETROIT-ARIZONA OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Joe Gavazzi

Carolina -2

Rookie HC Marrone teamed with rookie QB Manuel to nearly eat the whole pie hosting New England last week. That would have been MM, MM good! Bill backers still got the cash in a game closer than most experts predicted. The reality is that New England both outrushed and out-passed Buffalo by a combined 147 yards, controlled the ball for 38 minutes, but did commit 3 key turnovers. Carolina had a chance for the upset of the day, but fell short in a fourth quarter drive that resulted in a 12-7 home loss to Seattle. Big take-away from that contest was the Carolina 124-70 overland edge against a team in Seattle with a Superbowl worthy defense. Since I’m a Panther backer in the early going, I’m going to look for them to control festivities overland again this week with an offense that rushed 124/5.0 against the Buffalo defense that allowed 158/4.5. My money is on the fact that the Panthers get the money with their dominance at the line of scrimmage.

Atlanta -6

This is risky business knowing that under second year HC Fisher, St Louis is 7-1 ATS away and 11-3 ATS as dog. But they were outrushed 86-67 by Arizona of all people in the opener, barely holding on for a 27-24 win, no cover. Did they miss RB Jackson? Not for long, as they will see him today; he’s now suiting up for the Falcons. He got little chance to perform in the aerial shootout that was game 1 in New Orleans. You see, Atlanta chose to only rush the ball 14 times; that’s a sure recipe for failure, as we know that NFL teams who run the ball 22 or fewer times are an 86% play against. Now back home, look for redemption from an Atlanta team who has been as good as anybody in the nation following a defeat. In fact, HC Smith is 18-4 ATS/loss. Along with a 21-11 ATS mark as HF (to balance out the road success of Fisher), we’ll look for redemption to lead this victory. Expect RB Jackson to get more touches against his ex-mates, and balance the offense more than last week, and open up the airways for QB Ryan and one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.

Green Bay -7

Bad scheduling spot for the Skins, who won’t have many good feelings about themselves following the Monday night home debacle against the rival Eagles. They were outrushed 49/263 to 18/47 with the 33-27 final being far from representative of how the game was played. Don’t expect host Green Bay to be a willing participant in allowing the Skins to fly through the back door. Either RGIII does not have/did not show his former mobility or HC Shanahan is keeping him under wraps in the early going. In any event, they are not trustworthy in this situation despite the fact that Shanahan is 21-14 ATS as dog, and 15-9 ATS away. Far prefer Green Bay, who comes home in search of redemption after allowing San Francisco to put up 34 points and 494 yards in a 34-28 defeat of the Packers. Having just faced the Wild Kaep, this defense will be well prepared for the poor man’s version that is currently RGIII. You’d be plenty rich if you knew Green Bay HC McCarthy was going to be 72-48 ATS in his first 120 games; that includes a recent mark of 18-8 ATS home chalk. Expect RB Lacy to take a bigger role in balancing the offense, allowing QB Rodgers to show why he is clearly the better signal caller in this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

The Real Animal Sports

Arizona +2

I don’t trust Detroit as a road favorite. The Lions are 17-63 straight-up since 2003 on the road covering just two of 10 spots in this role during that time. Last year just 2-6 on the highway. Last week Carson Palmer threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns against St. Louis, who was tied for the league lead in sacks last year with 52. The Cardinals have a nice 3-pack of receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd. They combined for 20 receptions last week. Catch this system/trend: The Lions are 0-11-1 ATS since 1994 within three-points of a pick-em following a home win. Hopefully former Detroit QB Drew Stanton, now with the Cardinals, can offer some advice to the Arizona brass concerning the Lions’ playbook. Arizona has a very athletic group of linebackers so it won’t be easy for Reggie Bush to make an impact. Their secondary is loaded with playmakers. Detroit is a dome team on carpet. This one is on grass and in severe heat. Last year in this building Arizona destroyed Detroit 38-10 and the Cardinals at the time were in the midst of a nine-game losing streak. Detroit is 3-10 SU on the road while Arizona is 9-4 their last 13 at home. The road victories for Detroit in their last 13? That would be Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Oakland by a point in 2011. Arizona wins this game straight-up.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Nelly

Washington Redskins + over Green Bay Packers

Facing a short week with the Packers coming off a loss may be a tough situation for the Redskins but value is on last season's NFC East champions after an ugly performance on Monday. Green Bay displayed some toughness hanging with the 49ers last week but the Packers seem to have fallen to the second tier in the NFC and the schedule is very tough early in the year. After that huge revenge game last week on the west coast this home opener could be a great challenge for a defense that allowed nearly 500 yards last week. Green Bay has proven it can defend the run or the pass but certainly not both and mistakes from the receiving corps continue to be costly for an offense that is not nearly as threatening as it was a few years back. Aaron Rodgers is still an elite QB but he has not delivered late in close games and the annual effort to build a running game continues to be fruitless. The Packers struggled on third downs and in obvious passing situations and the wake-up call that the Washington defense received last week should pay dividends this week. While Green Bay allowed 6.6 yards per play last week Washington held Philadelphia to 4.8 yards per play last week and the Redskins had a lot of pressure on Michael Vick. Washington struggled on offense early in the game with Robert Griffin not having played in live action since last season but things clicked late in the comeback effort and the Packers will have to chose whether they want to contain the running game to get burned in the air again or if the approach changes. Green Bay had very few lopsided wins last season and the Packers are 1-4 ATS in the last five games when favored by more than seven but less than 10.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Jeff Alexander

Milwaukee Brewers +120

Cincy hasn't won a series at Miller Park since May 7-9, 2012. It has dropped 8 of its last 12 in Milwaukee, and I expect its struggles at Miller to continue with the way Gallardo is going. He is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA over his last five starts, limiting opponents to a .198 average. He's had no shortage of success against the Reds of late, going 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA in his last five outings. Arroyo isn't in top form. The Reds have lost his last three starts while he's posted a 5.19 ERA. Bet the Brew Crew.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Big Kat Sports

Denver vs. New York
Take: New York +4.5

In what may be the last regular season meeting between the Manning Brothers, Eli will look for his first career win over his big brother when the Broncos and Giants get together this afternoon at Met Life Stadium in North Jersey. Eli has lost both career meetings against Peyton but does have the advantage when it comes to Super Bowl Rings between the two. Both guys have a ton of weapons at their disposal but we believe that this line is a bit inflated after both team’s performances in Week 1. The Giants turned the ball over 6 times in a loss to the Cowboys while the Broncos overcame a slow start against the Ravens in what turned out to be a blowout victory over Baltimore. We like the Giants in this spot as an underdog as they are 8-2-1 in their last 11 games in that role and we expect a huge effort from them at home as they try and avoid the dreaded 0-2 start, which usually leads to the golf course while other teams are playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Add to that the fact that Eli Manning has led the Giants to a 19-12 SU record after a loss and we’ll take the 4.5 points with the Giants in a game that we feel they have a chance to steal outright from the Broncos.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Freddy Wills

St Louis Rams +6

The Rams have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL while the Falcons have one of the worst offensive lines. I think the Falcons will win by a field goal but it won't be pretty by any means as the Rams have gotten a lot better and should be competitive all season long.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 15

Anyone have gold sheet?

Matthew Whitaker
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