NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

NFL Gambling Preview: Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com

Washington at Green Bay
Sunday, 10 am PT – FOX
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -6.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Green Bay -7.5 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Green Bay -6.5
Marty Otto’s Recommendation: Use Green Bay -1.5 in a 2-team, 6-point teaser

The Redskins are in a brutal spot here as they travel to Green Bay on short rest having just played on Monday night. To exacerbate the poor spot even more is the fact they played against the new Chip Kelly up-tempo spread offense. The Eagles ran a remarkable 53 plays in the first half alone and you have to imagine Washington’s thin defense is still going to be feeling the effects come Sunday. We have to remember most of this roster is not “game fit” just yet so four long quarters of uphill fighting can really gas a defense. It should be noted that Green Bay was a top ten offense in terms of tempo last season so we shouldn’t expect many breaks in the action this week either.

Green Bay comes in after a dog fight of its own, an emotional playoff revenge situation in San Francisco. While they were picked apart by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense you have to believe the Packers are in a much better position to rebound this week. For starters, they return home where they are a truly fantastic 24-3 straight up since 2010 while going a sizzling 19-8 against the spread. They’ve got Aaron Rodgers pulling the strings, still one of the top three signal callers in the NFL. At his disposal are emerging star Randall Cobb, a healthy Jordy Nelson and what looks to be a motivated Jermichael Finley. And while the stout defensive front of the 49ers bottled up the Packers ground game I saw some glimpses from Eddie Lacy that make me believe Green Bay could be a much more balanced attack moving forward against non-elite rush defenses.

Speaking of rush defenses, the Green Bay front seven looked very solid against the 49ers on Sunday. The return of Johnny Jolly to the defensive line gives them some toughness I thought they lacked last year. They bottled up Frank Gore all day and will be tested to do the same against Alfred Morris and the Redskins who led the league in rushing in 2012.

With RGIII in injury comeback mode, the defense having been run all over the field and the shorter turnaround time I just don’t see Washington winning this game. I believe the Packers are a great option to include in teasers this weekend.

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Week 2 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Chargers at Eagles (-7½, 55)


Week 1 Results:
Chargers lost to Texans, 31-28 as five-point home underdogs. San Diego blew a 28-7 lead in the second half, as the Bolts fell on a last-second field goal.
Eagles beat Redskins, 33-27 as four-point road underdogs. Philadelphia jumped out to a 26-7 halftime edge, while LeSean McCoy rushed for a game-high 184 yards and a touchdown.

Previous meeting:
San Diego knocked off Philadelphia, 31-23 to cash as one-point home favorites in 2009, even though Donovan McNabb threw for 450 yards for the Eagles. The Chargers last won in Philadelphia back in 1995, as San Diego is making just its fourth trip to the City of Brotherly Love in this span.

ATS notes:
The Eagles have won six of their last eight home games against AFC opponents since 2009, but Philadelphia owns a 3-5 ATS record in this stretch. In the last seven opportunities as a favorite of at least seven points, the Eagles have compiled a 1-6 ATS mark.

The Chargers cashed in four of six games as a road underdog last season, while posting a 2-2 SU/ATS record in contests played in the Eastern Time Zone. San Diego hasn't had much luck against NFC foes on the road with an 0-6 SU/ATS record since 2010, including three losses by double-digits.

Rams at Falcons (-6½, 47 ½)

Week 1 Results:
Rams rallied past the Cardinals, 27-24, but failed to cover as 3½-point home favorites. St. Louis overcame a 24-13 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona for the third straight time.

Falcons fell to the Saints, 23-17 as 3½-point road underdogs. Atlanta jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but scored only seven points in the final three quarters as the Falcons suffered their first road underdog loss since the 2011 playoffs against the Giants.

Previous meeting:
Atlanta drilled St. Louis at the Edward Jones Dome, 34-17 back in 2010 as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' The Falcons scored the final 18 points of the game after trailing, 17-16 in the third quarter, as Atlanta racked up 391 yards of offense. Atlanta has won each of the last three meetings at the Georgia Dome since 2004, but only one of those victories came with Matt Ryan at quarterback.

ATS notes:
Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have put together a solid 11-3 ATS record in the underdog role, including a 7-2 ATS mark on the highway. Since the start of last season, St. Louis is 5-2 ATS off a win, while winning three of its past four contests straight-up (at Arizona, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay).

The Falcons have bounced back nicely off a loss since 2009, winning 13 straight games in this role, while posting a 10-3 ATS record. However, Atlanta failed to cover all three times last season at the Georgia Dome when laying at least six points.

Redskins at Packers (-7, 49½)

Week 1 Results:
Redskins lost to Eagles, 33-27 as four-point home favorites. The defeat was the second in the last seven divisional contests for Washington, while the team cashed their second 'over' at home since last November.

Packers fell to the 49ers, 34-28 as five-point road underdogs. Green Bay went back and forth with San Francisco by exchanging touchdowns for the first three quarters, but San Francisco pulled away by scoring the final 10 points of the contest.

Previous meeting:
Washington squeezed by Green Bay in overtime, 16-13 as 2½-point home underdogs at FedEx Field in 2010. The Redskins overcame an early 10-0 deficit to stun a Packers' squad that would eventually win the Super Bowl that season. Washington makes its first visit to Lambeau Field since a 17-14 defeat in 2007.

ATS notes:
The Redskins made money as a road underdog last season with a 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU mark when receiving points away from the Nation's Capital. In Robert Griffin III's rookie season, Washington won all three games off a home loss, including outright underdog victories over Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

Green Bay has profited nicely at Lambeau Field since 2010 by compiling a 17-8 ATS record at home, including a 6-3 ATS mark last season. The Packers haven't suffered consecutive losses since 2010, while going 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS at home off a defeat since December 2008.

Cowboys at Chiefs (-3, 46½)

Week 1 Results:
Cowboys held off the Giants, 36-31 to cash as 3½-point home favorites. Dallas scored two touchdowns on the defensive side and created six turnovers, but allowed New York to register 478 yards of offense.

Chiefs destroyed the Jaguars, 28-2 as 3½-point away favorites. Kansas City allowed an early safety on a blocked punt out of the end zone, but the Chiefs scored four unanswered touchdowns for their second opening week win since 2006.

Previous meeting:
Dallas got by Kansas City in overtime at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-20, but the Chiefs cashed as seven-point underdogs. The Cowboys rallied from a 10-point deficit to take a 20-13 lead with two minutes remaining, but the Chiefs forced overtime with a late touchdown. Miles Austin finished off a 250-yard performance with a 60-yard touchdown catch from Tony Romo to win it for the Cowboys.

ATS notes:
The Cowboys won outright as road underdogs last season against the Giants and Bengals, while cashing in a two-point defeat at Baltimore. Dallas has put together a 6-0 ATS record in the last six road games against AFC competition since 2010 with five of those contests decided by four points or less.

The Chiefs have failed to cover as a home favorite in their last six tries since 2010, while not even picking up a straight-up victory in this span (four losses by double-digits). However, Kansas City is 5-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead against NFC opponents the past three seasons.

Broncos (-4½, 54½) at Giants

Week 1 Results:
Broncos took care of the Ravens, 49-27 as 7½-point home favorites to kick off the season. Peyton Manning tossed a career-high seven touchdown passes, which included five TD tosses in the second half.

Giants were tripped up by the Cowboys, 36-31 as 3½-point road underdogs. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak by New York at Dallas, while the last five meetings in Texas have sailed 'over' the total.

Previous meeting:
The Broncos shocked the Giants on Thanksgiving in 2009 with a 26-6 drubbing of New York as five-point home underdogs. The loss was the nail in the coffin for a New York club that began that season at 5-0, while the win for the Broncos snapped a four-game skid.

ATS notes:
Denver covered four of five games in Peyton Manning's first season as a road favorite, while scoring at least 26 points four times. The Broncos have won just two of their last eight away games against NFC competition, but that also included losses with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at quarterback.

The Giants are listed as a home underdog for just the second time since 2009, as New York cashed as a seven-point 'dog in a 38-35 defeat to Green Bay in 2011. New York has won six of nine home openers under Tom Coughlin, but one of those defeats came to Manning and the Colts to kick off the 2006 season.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

San Diego at Philadelphia

Both teams have new coaches coming off a Monday night game, but only one, Philadelphia’s Chip Kelly, emerged with his first NFL victory. For this game, the Eagles are -7.5 home favorites according to Bovada, with the huge 55 total a nod to what happened in both Monday contests.

Philadelphia jumped out to a 33-7 lead, with Kelly’s new offense leaving the Washington Redskins in disarray until the cut the final score to 33-27. The Chargers also had a big lead at 28-7, but ended losing at the final gun to the Houston Texans by a 31-28 score.

Long before Kelly arrived on the scene, the Eagles showed an ability to quickly bounce back from a short week. Since 1992, the team has a 16-6 ATS record in the next game after a Monday Night clash.

With San Diego, they have a pair of negatives to contend with on Sunday. Since 2011, the team has a 1-9 ATS record following a game in which more than 50 points were scored. Also, the Charger record in games against NFC opponents has been abysmal for the past few years: the team has failed to cover in any of its last eight games, and has just a 3-10 ATS mark in its last 13 road non-conference tilts, including dropping each of the last six games.

Some other long-time trends that skew strongly toward Philadelphia include one in which a team at home with a total of 45 or over that is coming off a Week 1 win has beaten the Las Vegas betting line in eight of the last 10 games.

Another is actually a fade trend connected to San Diego in which road teams with a total over 45 that lost a Week 1 game and went over the total in that game have a 1-5-1 ATS record.

Finally, over the last decade, an NFL trend with a very large sample size has shown that a favorite coming off a divisional win and facing a non-conference team, have beaten the pointspread in virtually two out of every three games, compiling a 75-38 ATS mark.

Even if you discard the above data, you still have a team that blew a 21-point lead that has to travel a long distance on a short practice week and face a team energized by its Monday performance. That, along with everything else, is why our free football picks says to

Play Philadelphia -7.5 at Bovada

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NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New York Giants
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Denver at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Denver -6 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Denver -4 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -3
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

The betting markets aren’t used to NFL totals in the mid-50’s.  And there’s a significant sentiment among sharp bettors that NFL totals this high are one-way-only bets – they’re either taking the Under, or passing on the total.  A decade ago, I was one of those bettors who wouldn’t touch anything Over 52 in this league.  But in the modern NFL, that’s a flawed strategy, in my opinion.
Look no further than the TV games from last week.  We had five national TV games on opening weekend: Broncos – Ravens, 49ers – Packers, Giants – Cowboys, Redskins – Eagles and Chargers – Texans.  All five FLEW over the total, by 27, 15, 17, 8 and 15 points respectively – none of them were particularly close.  Square bettors cleaned up betting Overs in those contests. Sharp bettors took the Under in every one of those games, and lost every dollar they wagered.

Peyton Manning threw seven touchdown passes in the opener against Baltimore.  The Ravens don’t have an elite defense, but it’s certainly not a bottom tier unit.  Denver dominated in the trenches offensively – Manning’s jersey was relatively clean for most of the night.  And when Baltimore blitzed, the Broncos elite receiving corps was matched up in single coverage, and Manning found them for big gainers all night long.

The Giants secondary is not an elite unit, by any stretch of the imagination.  New York’s defensive strength is supposed to be up front, on the defensive line; a team that can theoretically generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks without blitzing. 

But that certainly wasn’t the case at Dallas in Week 1.  Cowboys QB Tony Romo took only two sacks and was pressured only six times on 51 drop-backs.  If Peyton Manning has all day to throw, Denver could approach this total all by themselves, especially now that the Giants have lost yet another key player from their secondary, with Prince Amukamara expected to sit after suffering a concussion last week!

But there’s no question that Eli can throw the deep ball every bit as well as his brother. The G-men had three 100 yard receivers in their opener (Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle), and tight end Brandon Myers had seven catches on his own.  Despite playing behind a banged up offensive line, Manning had time to find all three receivers for long gainers – this is not a ‘dink and dunk’ offense, by any stretch of the imagination.

Denver’s defense is solid, not spectacular, especially without the suspended Von Miller bringing his pass rush and the injured Champ Bailey locking down opposing receivers in the secondary.  The Ravens put together four long scoring drives (all 55+ yards) against the Broncos on opening night.

The Giants had 45 passing plays and only 14 rushes against the Cowboys. Despite playing with a huge lead for most of the second half, the Broncos had a 2:1 pass-to-run ratio themselves; a ratio that speaks volumes about the modern day NFL.  It’s a passing league these days, with long gainers in bunches and the clock stopping on every incompletion.

Both previous Manning vs. Manning matchups have gone Over the total.  Expect another Over in the latest installment of this rivalry on Sunday afternoon.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

NFL Gambling Preview: San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

San Diego at Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -7 O/U 51.5
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -7 (-120) O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Philadelphia -5.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Philadelphia

There’s no doubt that the Eagles offense is the flavor of the week this week. Head coach Chip Kelly’s innovative, extreme tempo system figures to be a lot for San Diego to handle, especially on a short work week. Couple those tasks with a cross country fight, an early 1:00 local time start, and their heart breaking season home opening loss to Houston and you instantly have a strong case for a fade. Defensive fatigue could also be a valid argument against the Chargers since Philadelphia is conditioned for their style and the entire nation saw Washington’s defense gassed in the first quarter last Monday night. A reenergized and rabid Eagles fan base will pack Lincoln Financial Field for the season home opener and immediately become a very positive 12th man force. I understand that +7/+7.5 is a large number in the NFL that many would take blindly but is it enough to back San Diego? They are the “ugly dog” so to speak in this contest which makes them a hard sell for oddsmakers.

All the solid things they did in the first half vs. Houston have already eroded in the minds of just about everyone who watched them implode in the second half. The final box score is lopsided against them which can sway anyone who didn’t see the game. Houston was +12 in first downs, +24 in total plays, +186 in total yards, and +13:02 in time of possession.

Fundamentally, the Texans used a heavy dose of blitzing in the second half to disorganize and totally defuse the Chargers’ offensive rhythm. New Philadelphia defensive coordinator Billy Davis’ system emphasizes the blitz which is seemingly another strike against San Diego in this game. The ideal blueprint would be to shorten the game with running back Ryan Mathews and short to intermediate passes while forcing and capitalizing on a few turnovers. That’s a little out of character for the Chargers whose best offensive asset is their quarterback’s right arm and his attack mentality. Also, the defense isn’t really a takeaway type of defense. Offensive line play should play a significant factor here. San Diego is working with a retooled, sub-par front while Philadelphia’s pieces are healthy and aided by the addition of first round draft choice Lane Johnson at right tackle.

The NFL is as finicky a league as there is when it comes to week-to-week results. Things you see one week disappear the next and wind up having bettors scratching their heads and shredding tickets they thought were gold when purchased. You can be sure San Diego will come out fighting and determined in this one. Early season bounce backs off of discouraging losses are easier for teams because there is still a positive mindset with a full season of games left. There are always situations where money can be made each year by playing underdogs that just don’t seem to have any logical chance of covering. This isn’t one of them. Philadelphia will have the Chargers heads spinning from the outset as they unleash a little more of the 40% in their playbook that went unused against the Redskins. San Diego can’t keep up with the Eagles pace on either side of the ball here. Effectiveness and execution go to the home side in a large way and Philly wins by 13 or more.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

Week 2 Sharp Moves
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com's databases as of Thursday afternoon.

Washington/Green Bay Under 49.5 - The Redskins and Packers both had lousy defensive weeks in Week 1, but that has really just pushed the number in the game between these two far too high.

Opening Line: 49
Current Line: 49.5
Public Betting Percentage: 97% on the over

St. Louis +6.5 - The Rams are the 1-0 team in this bunch against the Falcons, but these two teams might be a lot more similar than the oddsmakers are letting on to. Someone clearly knows something in this game. Don't believe me? Check out the trends and the public betting percentages.

Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on Atlanta

Miami +2.5 - The Colts looked horrid last week against the Raiders but still found a way to win the game. Miami wasn't exactly as awesome as could be against a bad Cleveland team, but wins on the road are hard to come by in this league, and it was a good result for the Fins. They could pull off the upset again this week, too.

Opening Line: Miami +3
Current Line: Miami +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

Tampa Bay +3.5 - Home underdogs, particularly within this range tend to do really well in NFL betting action, and this could be no exception. It's a divisional game, and the Bucs and Saints know all about each other and what they are going to try to do in this one. There's no doubt that New Orleans is more talented, but is it by enough to win by more than a field goal on the road?

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +3.5

Current Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 89% on New Orleans

New Orleans/Tampa Bay Under 47 - Same game. Over bettors are clearly looking at the fact that QB Drew Brees and company historically put up 30+ points in games like this one and perhaps not the fact that QB Josh Freeman still stinks. Oh yes, and New Orleans only put up 23 points last week against a suspect Atlanta defense at home.

Opening Line: 47
Current Line: 47
Public Betting Percentages: 93% on the over

Arizona +1.5 - The line move here is at least apparent, but anyone in Vegas will tell you that the move from pk to 1.5 isn't all that large. Arizona was a six-point dog last year when these two teams played, but the Lions got destroyed.

Opening Line: Pick 'Em
Current Line: Arizona +1.5
Public Betting Percentages: 80% on Detroit

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Even though the first week of the NFL season watched every nationally televised game go ‘over’ the number, the total results from the opening weekend was a stalemate at 8-8. Bettors saw the ‘under’ go an eye-opening 8-1 in the early games on Sunday and the majority of the results were clear-cut. This past Thursday the Patriots beat the Jets 13-10 and most sportsbooks were probably pleased to see the primetime ‘over’ run come to an end.

What should total bettors expect going forward? I hate to use a line from women and compare it to sports betting but it’s fair to say that 40 is the new 30, especially when looking at totals. In the opening weekend, 15 of the 16 games had totals listed at 40 or more points and three were in the fifties. In Week 2, the same scenario is playing out and you could see all games be listed above 40 with the Jacksonville-Oakland matchup hovering around 39 points.

Three more games are listed above 50 points this week and that doesn’t necessarily mean shootouts. In Week 1, the ‘under’ went 2-1 with the high numbers, the lone winner being the Monday Night matchup between Philadelphia and Washington. The Eagles are catching a lot of buzz right now for their pace but at the end of the day, they only put up 31 points from their offense. This week, Philadelphia welcomes San Diego and you can see below that the early money has already poured in on the ‘over.’

Line Moves

Here are all of the line moves of 1½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

San Diego at Philadelphia – Line opened 51½ and jumped to 54
Cleveland at Baltimore – Line opened 42 and jumped to 43½
Tennessee at Houston – Line opened 41 and jumped to 42½
Washington at Green Bay – Line opened 48 and jumped to 50
Minnesota at Chicago – Line opened 40 and jumped to 41½
Detroit at Arizona – Line opened 46 and jumped to 48½
Jacksonville at Oakland – Line opened 41 and dropped to 39½
Denver at N.Y. Giants – Line opened 52½ and jumped to 55

Divisional Matchups

The ‘over’ went 4-2 in divisional games last week. Including Thursday’s game between the Jets and Patriots, Week 2 features six more divisional battles.

Cleveland at Baltimore
The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Baltimore has won 11 straight in this series and during this domination, Cleveland has been held to 17 points or less 10 times.

Tennessee at Houston
The ‘over’ is 3-1 the past two seasons. During this span, the Texans have averaged 31.3 points per game.

Minnesota at Chicago
The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series. However, Chicago has posted 28, 39, 27 and 36 points in its last four encounters at home against the Vikings.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Seven of the last eight meetings between this pair have seen the ‘under’ cash. Last season, New Orleans put up 41 and 35 against Tampa Bay. The total has ranged between 49 and 54 points in the last four meetings but this week’s number is hovering around 47, which could tell you that the oddsmakers are starting to notice the aforementioned trend.

San Francisco at Seattle (See Below)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (See Below)

Under the Lights

San Francisco at Seattle
The number on this game is bouncing around 44, which is the highest total this matchup has seen since 2003 when Jeff Garcia and Matt Hasselbeck were going head-to-head for the 49ers and Seahawks respectively. Fast forward 10 years and quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson will attempt to light up the scoreboard. The past three years, the Seahawks and 49ers have seen the total go 1-1 in their regular season matchups. In Jim Harbaugh’s first year in San Francisco, the team was more known for its defense but that changed last year and so did the total results. The 49ers watched the ‘over’ go 9-1 in their final 10 games of the 2012-13 regular season and playoffs. Also, last week’s 34-28 home win against Green Bay in Week 1 was an easy ‘over’ ticket. Seattle has a great defensive unit but it will be missing key parts to that group on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
As of Saturday, this total was hovering between 40 and 41 points, which is the second lowest number on the board. The ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings and after watching Pittsburgh’s offense (194 yards, 7 points) struggle at home in Week 1, not many bettors are expecting an explosion on Monday against a sound Cincinnati defense. The Bengals watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 at home last season and even though Cincinnati allowed 24 points to Chicago last week, its defense played very well up until the end of the game.

Fearless Predictions

We turned a profit in this section last season and hope to churn out more winning tickets in 2013. If you’re new to TT, all wagers are based on one-unit and we play a nine-point teaser at even money (+100). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Denver-N.Y. Giants 54

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 43

Best Team Total: Over N.Y. Giants 26

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Denver-N.Y. Giants 45
Under Jacksonville-Oakland 38½
Under Pittsburgh-Cincinnati 50

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

Sunday's NFL Week 2 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5, 47)

Sam Bradford benefited from former top overall pick Jake Long's presence and was not sacked in the Week 1 victory. Daryl Richardson, who replaced visiting RB Steven Jackson as the primary back in St. Louis, rushed for 63 yards on 20 carries in last week's win. Richardson likely will have company in the backfield on Sunday as Isaiah Pead returns from a one-game league suspension.

Matt Ryan could use some better protection after being sacked three times while being put under duress on 25-of-38 passing in the season opener. Ryan also has question marks at wide receiver as veteran Roddy White effectively serves as a decoy as he tries to work through a high ankle sprain. Pro Bowler Julio Jones has been limited in practice with a knee injury despite reeling in seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last week.

LINE: Opened Atlanta -7.5 and bet down to -6.5. Total steady at 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+2.5) + Falcons (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Falcons -9.5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Philip Rivers completed only 14-of-29 passes against the Texans, including a 1-for-7 performance with a pick-six in the decisive fourth quarter. Rivers did throw four touchdown passes, but to provide a comparison, the Chargers ran a total of 51 plays against the Texans – two fewer than Philadelphia ran in the first half alone. San Diego, which was ravaged by injuries to its receivers in the preseason, did not have a player catch more than three passes or go over 50 yards against Houston.

Under the direction of Chip Kelly’s high-flying offense, the Eagles ran 53 first-half plays against the Washington Redskins on Monday night and extended their lead to 33-7 in the opening two minutes of the third quarter. After his team ran 77 plays and finished with 443 yards against Washington, Kelly actually said of the Eagles’ offense, “I felt like it was too slow, to be honest with you.”

LINE: Eagles opened -7.5 and bet down to -7. Total moved from 53 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Eagles (+1.0) + home (-3.0) = Eagles -4.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s. Clear skies. Winds west 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following SU loss.
* Eagles are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Kansas City Chiefs first-year head coach Andy Reid will make his home debut Sunday against a team he knows all too well in the Dallas Cowboys. Reid was 17-12, including the playoffs, versus Dallas in his 14 years at the helm in Philadelphia. The Chiefs have lost their last two home openers by a combined score of 81-31.

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (bruised ribs) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (foot) are on target to play through their respective injuries. Dallas rode its defense to a 36-31 win over the New York Giants on Sunday in a game that saw the Cowboys force six turnovers, two of which they returned for touchdowns.

LINE: Chiefs opened as low as -1.5 and moved to -3. Total steady at 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-2.5) + Chiefs (0.0) + home (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 80s. 34 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-5 in Chiefs' last 22 home games.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 43.5)

he first order of business for Miami is to fix a running game that averaged less than a yard per carry and saw starter Lamar Miller held to three yards on 10 attempts. Wide receiver Mike Wallace, the high-priced offseason acquisition that was brought in to provide Tannehill with a deep threat, also made headlines following the game by grousing about his role in the passing attack (one catch, 15 yards).

Colts QB Andrew Luck, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, was sacked four times by the upset-minded Oakland Raiders but ran for the winning touchdown with just under 5 1/2 minutes to play - the eighth time he has directed a comeback win in the fourth quarter or overtime. Defense was also a concern for the Colts, who allowed Oakland to possess the ball for nearly 33 minutes.

LINE: Colts opened -3.5 moved as low as -2.5. Total moved from 42.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+1.0) - Colts (+1.5) + home (-3.0) = Colts -2.5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:


* Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-9, 43)

The Titans' defense held the Steelers to 195 total yards and kept them off the scoreboard until Jerricho Cotchery caught a 4-yard touchdown pass with 1:23 remaining in the fourth quarter. Tennessee needed the strong defensive performance as its offense gained only 229 yards and produced just one touchdown and three field goals.

Controversy could be brewing in the Texans' backfield as Arian Foster was visibly upset after being waved off the field by backup Ben Tate during a fourth-quarter drive on Monday. Coach Gary Kubiak stated Foster, who missed the entire preseason with a calf injury, will be sharing the workload with Tate until he works his way back into form.

LINE: Houston opened -8.5 and moved as high as -10.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+3.5) + Texans (-4.5) + home (-3.0) = Texans -11
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 49.5)

Washington's defense couldn't slow down the Eagles' frenetic offense, falling behind 33-7 before mounting a huge second-half rally in a 33-27 loss. Robert Griffin III looked like a player who missed virtually the entire preseason Monday night. The former Heisman winner was relegated to a pocket passer, perhaps by design, as Washington looked to protect his surgically repaired knee.

Aaron Rodgers was sharp in Green Bay's opener but aside from a couple flashes of speed out of the backfield from rookie Eddie Lacy (14 carries, 41 yards), the Packers were forced to resort to their one-dimensional air attack. Rodgers is nearly unbeatable at Lambeau Field, winning 19 of his last 20 starts there. Green Bay could be without tight end Jermichael Finley, who missed practice during the week due to a toe injury.

LINE: Packers opened -9 and moved to -7. Total moved from 49.5 to 50.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+1.0) + Packers (-6.0) + home (-3.0) = Packers -10
WEATHER: Temps low 60s. 60 percent chance of rain. Winds west 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 44)

Defending Cleveland’s offense will be a bit easier as second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden is still trying to establish himself as a viable NFL signal caller. Weeden threw three interceptions and was sacked six times while completing 26-of-53 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens have defeated the Browns by an average of 12.9 points during the 10-game winning streak.

The Baltimore Ravens attempt to defeat Cleveland for the 11th consecutive time during John Harbaugh’s head coaching tenure when they host the Browns. Quarterback Joe Flacco put the ball in the air a career-high 62 times while passing for 362 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against Denver. Getting Ray Rice untracked will be a priority as Baltimore’s top running back had just 71 total yards (36 rushing, 35 receiving) on 20 touches against Denver.

LINE: Ravens opened -7 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Browns (+5.5) + Ravens (-1.5) + home (-3.0) = Ravens -10
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Clear skies. Winds south 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
* Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (+1, 44)

Carolina needs to get something going down the field - Newton was 16-for-23 for a career-low 125 yards against Seattle - to open things up for the running game. The pass defense struggled a week ago and needs to pressure Bills QB E.J. Manuel after sacking Russell Wilson only once in the opener.

Buffalo had limited success on offense in Week 1 but needs more from electric running back C.J. Spiller, who fumbled on his second carry and was limited to 41 yards on 17 rushes. The Bills were just 4-for-13 on third down, which led to a lopsided time of possession (37:43) in favor of the Patriots, and it showed as the defense wore down in the fourth quarter.

LINE: Bills moved from as high as +3 to +1. Total moved from 44.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Bills (+5.5) + home (-3.0) = Bills +1
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 42)

Minnesota regularly sees eight-man defensive fronts with Peterson in the backfield, but quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to prove that he can take advantage of the single coverage on the outside. Ponder threw three interceptions and lost a fumble in a 34-24 Week 1 loss at Detroit and is facing a Chicago defensive backfield that forced three turnovers last week and led the NFL in that category a year ago.

The most encouraging thing about Chicago’s 24-21 victory over the Bengals may have been the spot on Cutlers stat line that read: sacks-0. Cutler was sacked 148 times in the last four seasons but the Bears rebuilt the offensive line with four new faces for 2013. Trestman, who specializes in a short passing game, is also trying to get the ball out of Cutler’s hands quickly and to receivers like Brandon Marshall, who caught eight passes for 104 yards and a score against the Bengals.

LINE: Chicago opened -5 and moved as high as -6. Total moved from 40.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (+2.5) + Bears (-2.0) + home (-3.0) = Bears -7.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 60s. 64 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
* Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

Sunday's NFL Week 2 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Drew Brees passed for 357 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 1 and torched Tampa Bay for 307 yards and four scores in that Dec. 16 meeting last season. The biggest test for the Saints secondary this week will be against wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who is the best playmaker on Bucs' offense

Tampa Bay was called for five penalties that led to first downs against the Jets, including a personal foul call on linebacker Lavonte David that set up the winning field goal with two seconds left. Freeman completed less than 50 percent of his passes (15-for-31), threw an interception and fumbled the ball out of the back of the end zone for a safety in the contest.

LINE: Saints opened -3.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-3.0) + Bucs (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bucs +4
WEATHER: Temps in low 90s. 30 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds east 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 48.5)

Detroit came out of Week 1 healthy but is likely another week away from getting receiver Ryan Broyles back from a knee injury. The Lions can survive without Broyles thanks to a bevy of offensive weapons including Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, who had 90 rushing yards and 101 receiving yards in his Detroit debut.

New starting quarterback Carson Palmer had a solid outing in Week 1, passing for 327 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw an interception and was sacked four times. The Cardinals might be without two major offensive weapons as receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Rashard Mendenhall both are questionable with hamstring injuries.

LINE: Game opened pick and moved to Detroit -1. Total moved from 46.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0.0) + Cardinals (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +2
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:


* Home team is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 39)

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without quarterback Blaine Gabbert when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The second-year quarterback suffered a nasty laceration on his throwing hand that required 15 stitches during a season-opening 28-2 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and veteran Chad Henne will start against the Raiders.

Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor was just the eighth quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for at least 200 yards and run for 100 in the same game. Getting Darren McFadden untracked is crucial after the sixth-year back had only 48 yards – and a paltry 2.8 average – against the Colts. McFadden was limited to 53 yards (and a 2.8 average) by the Jaguars last season. Oakland recorded four sacks in the opener, a welcome development after having just 25 last season.

LINE: Oakland opened -7 and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 39.5 to 39.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jaguars (+7.5) - Raiders (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -3.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 70s with clear skies. Winds WSW 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Raiders' last four home games.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Denver QB Peyton Manning won the previous two matchups SU and ATS versus his brother Eli when he was a member of the Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos run game remains in flux but the defense had four sacks and two interceptions despite the absences of Pro Bowlers Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot).

New York has serious concerns about its running game after starter David Wilson lost two fumbles and was benched and backup Da'Rel Scott was injured, necessitating the signing of former Giants back Brandon Jacobs. New York's receiving corps showed it has the requisite firepower to keep up with the Broncos, getting three touchdown receptions from Victor Cruz. The Giants could be shorthanded in the defensive backfield after cornerback Prince Amukamara suffered a concussion versus Dallas.

LINE: Denver opened -2 and moved to -4.5. Total moved from 53.5 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.0) - Giants (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants +2.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-7 in Giants' last 24 games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44)

San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick was sensational in Week 1, throwing for a career-best 412 yards and three touchdowns against an overwhelmed Packers defense. The 49ers were the only NFC West team with a winning road record last season (5-3). San Francisco WR Anquan Boldin, who erupted for 208 receiving yards and a touchdown in his 49ers debut.

When it comes to home-field advantage, no team enjoyed a bigger one last season than the Seahawks. They finished 8-0 at CenturyLink in 2012 and were especially dominant in their final four home games of the campaign, outscoring opponents by a 148-33 margin over that stretch. The home effect was evident when San Francisco visited last season, as the noisy crowd forced Kaepernick to call two first-quarter timeouts.

LINE: Seattle opened -2.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 44.5 to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-8.0) - Seahawks (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -3
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. 43 percent chance of showers. Winds SW 11 mph.

TRENDS:


* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

Week 2 NFL Action
By Sportsbook.ag

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-1) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -7.5 & 50.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -7 & 50

Two defenses that were lit up in Week 1 will each face another stiff test on Sunday when Robert Griffin III and the Redskins visit Aaron Rodgers' Packers.

Washington gave up 443 yards in a 33-27 home loss to the Eagles in the season opener, while Green Bay allowed 494 yards in a 34-28 loss in San Francisco. Griffin nearly brought his team back from a 33-7 hole, finishing with 353 total yards and two scores, while Rodgers threw for 333 yards and 3 TD in a losing effort. Both teams will likely be without key defensive players for this matchup. Redskins star LB Ryan Kerrigan suffered a concussion in Week 1, S Brandon Meriweather is questionable with a groin injury and CB DeAngelo Hall (ankle) remains out indefinitely. The Packers' outstanding secondary could be missing two starters in FS Morgan Burnett (hamstring) who is questionable, while CB Casey Hayward (hamstring) is doubtful. Although these injuries should contribute to this game being a high-scoring affair, the last time these teams met in 2010, Washington won 16-13 despite Rodgers throwing for 293 yards. Although the Redskins are 36-17 ATS (68%) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992, they are also just 4-11 ATS (27%) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game over the past six seasons. Green Bay is an excellent 10-2 ATS (83%) after an ATS defeat in the past three years, but only 8-16 ATS (33%) versus poor passing defenses (allowing 7+ passing yards per attempt) in the past six seasons.

Last week the Redskins trailed by 26 points late in the third quarter before ending the game on a 20-0 run. Griffin looked tentative for those first three quarters and only got into a rhythm once the Eagles dropped back into a prevent defense. Griffin completed 30-of-49 passes for 329 yards (6.7 YPA) and 2 TD, but also threw two picks and took three sacks. Because Washington was trailing for most of the game, the team abandoned the run, finishing with 74 yards on 18 carries (4.1 YPC), a far cry from its NFL-best 169 rushing YPG last year. RB Alfred Morris was held to 45 yards on 12 carries (3.8 YPC) and the only other running back with a carry was Roy Helu, who was given one hand-off. Griffin did a nice job spreading the wealth among his receivers, as five players caught at least four passes each. WR Leonard Hankerson was the star with 80 yards and two scores, while WR Pierre Garcon (11 targets) and WR Santana Moss (9 targets) were the most popular choices for Griffin when he dropped back. With the Packers defense stopping the run much more effectively than the pass last week, the Redskins could choose to throw the football more than usual. Washington's defense was chewed up by the fast-paced Eagles offense, allowing 263 rushing yards on 49 carries (5.4 YPC), but the Packers don't have the type of rushing offense that can compare to Philly's ground game.

Aaron Rodgers was able to make a whole slew of big plays against an excellent 49ers defense last week, completing 21-of-37 passes for 333 yards (9.0 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT. He relied on basically three players who got 30 of the 36 targets, WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and TE Jermichael Finley. Nelson and Cobb each had seven catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown while Finley wound up with five catches for 56 yards and a score. Finley injured his toe during that performance though, and is questionable for Week 2. The Packers tried only 15 rushing attempts from their running backs, which resulted in a mere 44 yards (2.9 YPC). Rookie RB Eddie Lacy had 14 of these carries, but none went for more than seven yards. Lacy figures to find a lot more holes in the Redskins run defense that was carved up by the Eagles on Monday night. The Packers defense allowed nearly 500 yards last week, but they were also on the field for 38:35. Although Colin Kaepernick averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt, the 49ers managed only 2.6 yards per carry against Green Bay.

DENVER BRONCOS (1-0) at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -5.5 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -6 & 56

The Manning brothers meet again on Sunday afternoon when Eli's Giants try to avoid an 0-2 hole when they host Peyton's high-powered Broncos.

Both siblings had huge season-opening performances, as Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and 7 TD in a 49-27 rout of the Ravens, while Eli Manning racked up 450 passing yards and four scores in a 36-31 loss to the Cowboys. He also accounted for half of his team's six turnovers by tossing three interceptions. Peyton has won both previous NFL matchups between the brothers, prevailing 26-21 in 2006 and collecting three touchdown passes in a 38-14 blowout in 2010. The Broncos are 14-3 ATS (82%) after gaining 500+ yards in their previous game since 1992, but the Giants have also been a great wager coming off high-scoring affairs during this same timeframe, going 23-9 ATS (72%) after a game where 60+ points were scored. Denver has dominated poor passing defenses (235+ passing YPG allowed) over the past four seasons with a 13-5 ATS mark (72%), but New York is 13-6 ATS (68%) versus excellent passing offenses (260+ passing YPG) over the past six seasons.

Peyton Manning was certainly on the mark to open the season, connecting on 27-of-42 passes for 462 yards (11.0 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. Six different receivers had multiple receptions, with three catching multiple touchdown passes. WR Demaryius Thomas had five receptions for 161 yards and 2 TD, TE Julius Thomas caught five balls for 110 yards and 2 TD and WR Wes Welker started off his Broncos career with nine grabs for 67 yards and 2 TD. The only receiver who played poorly was WR Eric Decker who caught just two of his seven targets. But not all was rosy in Denver, as its three-headed rushing attack did very little. RB Knowshon Moreno carried nine times for 28 yards (3.1 YPC), rookie RB Montee Ball managed just 24 yards on eight attempts (3.0 YPC) while Ronnie Hillman produced 15 yards on four carries (3.8 YPC). None of the team's 23 rushes went for more than nine yards. The Broncos defense was thrown on 62 times by Joe Flacco, but held strong by allowing just 5.4 yards per pass and 2.8 yards per rush to the Ravens while forcing two turnovers. The lowlight of the night occurred when LB Danny Trevathan celebrated a sure touchdown return too early and didn't carry the ball past the goal line before dropping it. The Broncos are hoping star CB Champ Bailey (foot) will be able to start on Sunday, but he's listed as questionable. With the Giants' suspect ground game, the secondary will be tested early and often by Eli Manning.

Although the Giants had no problems moving the football through the air in Dallas, Eli Manning was sacked an uncharacteristic three times and top rusher David Wilson lost a pair of fumbles, finishing with a pitiful 19 yards on seven carries. Backup RB Da'Rel Scott ran pretty well in limited duty (23 yards on five carries), but the team will look for Wilson to return strong and have a better grip on the football. New York also signed former RB Brandon Jacobs to help jump-start a ground game that finished with 50 yards in the loss to the Cowboys. However, this is still a pass-first offense with Eli Manning completing at least five passes to five different receivers in Week 1, with three of those players topping 100 yards -- WRs Victor Cruz (118 yds, 3 TD), Hakeem Nicks (114 yds) and Rueben Randle (101 yds). New TE Brandon Myers led the team with seven grabs including a fourth-quarter touchdown while Scott caught five of his eight targets for 51 yards. Although the Giants allowed 36 points in their opener, the defense didn't play too poorly, holding the Cowboys to 5.0 yards per pass attempt and 3.8 yards per carry. However, there are injury concerns as both CB Prince Amukamara (concussion) and LB Dan Connor (neck) are questionable after sustaining injuries in the season opener.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -2.5 & 45
Opening Line & Total: Seahawks -2.5 & 45

The 49ers head to Seattle on Sunday night to take on the Seahawks, who beat them 42-13 the last time they played at CenturyLink Field last December.

Last season, San Francisco defeated the Seahawks 13-6 at home, but the Seahawks were a much different team towards the end of the season. Seattle won seven of its final eight regular season games, including the blowout victory over the 49ers at home on Dec. 23 when QB Russell Wilson threw for 171 yards and four touchdowns. RB Marshawn Lynch added on a rushing touchdown and receiving touchdown of his own while piling on 130 total yards in that blowout. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick struggled against the Seahawks secondary, going 19-of-36 for 244 yards with just one touchdown and an interception. Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore combined for just 59 rushing yards on a day where Seattle outrushed San Francisco by a hefty 94 yards (176 to 82). Over the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 20-7 ATS (74%) against conference opponents and 13-3 ATS (81%) at home. They are also 3-0 ATS in the past three meetings in this series. However, since Jim Harbaugh was hired as the Niners' head coach, his team is 24-13 ATS (65%) in all games, and 11-3 ATS (79%) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

The 49ers were challenged last week against Green Bay, but came out on top and sent the league a message. After beating the Packers in the playoffs last season behind Colin Kaepernick's 181 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, the quarterback found a new way to pick apart Green Bay. This time he attacked their secondary using his cannon for an arm and went 27-of-39 for 412 yards and three touchdowns. Kaepernick averaged 10.6 yards per pass and absolutely decimated a Green Bay secondary that many have high praise for. TE Vernon Davis caught six passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns, but WR Anquan Boldin was the story of the game. Boldin finished with 13 receptions for 208 yards and a touchdown in his Niners debut, displaying uncanny chemistry with his quarterback despite it being their first regular season game together. Green Bay was able to put up 28 points on the 49ers defense, but San Francisco was able to force two turnovers and get stops when they really needed them. This battle on Sunday could potentially be a preview of the next NFC Championship game.

The Seahawks were able to win 12-7 on the road last week in Carolina, but it was not a pretty offensive performance. QB Russell Wilson performed well for Seattle, going 25-for-33 for 320 yards, but he found the end zone only once on a 43-yard pass to Jermaine Kearse. Seattle struggled with its running game all day against Carolina, getting just 43 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) from their superstar RB Marshawn Lynch. One of the bright spots for the Seahawks offense was the performance of WR Doug Baldwin, who caught seven passes for 91 yards. Despite the lack of scoring for the Seahawks offense, the defense looked like it was in prime condition. The unit allowed just one touchdown and 253 total yards against an offense led by Cam Newton that can be very dangerous. They caused two turnovers in the game and allowed just 5.4 yards per pass. Seattle is an early season favorite by some to win the Super Bowl, but must find a way to get the ball into the end zone more to achieve the ultimate goal of winning a championship.


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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

The new-look Bills nearly pulled off a stunning upset in their first game under coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback EJ Manuel. But the bungling Bills with a penchant for racking up penalties, turnovers, dropped passes payed the price in losing 23-21 to rival New England Patriots marking a 3-24 SU, 10-13-1 ATS slide vs Patriots since Bill Belichick took over in 2000. On a positive note, QB EJ Manuel completed 18-of-27 for 150 yards, 2 TD's, no interceptions while the ground game produced 136 yards spearheaded by RD Fred Jackson (67 yds). As for Panthers, they also had a rough start to the campaign losing 12-7 to the Seahawks with QB Newton going 16-of-23 for 125 yards, 1 TD, RB DeAngelo Williams notching 76 of Panthers 124 rushing yards. Moving the football through the air should not be a problem for QB EJ Manuel as Panthers gave up 300 passing yards in their loss. Buffalo has all the numbers in place for successful afternoon. Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS after season opening game vs Patriots, a perfect 5-0 (4-1 ATS) playing WK-2 at home, had a 3-1 ATS mark last year laying 3.5 or less at home and are 4-2 as home favorites in non-conference games. One final tid-bit, league-wide, home teams winning the air battle are on a 13-2 (11-4 ATS) stretch in the second week of action.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs destroying Jaguars, 28-2 as 3½-point road favorites last week return to Arrowhead Stadium to take on visiting Cowboys opening it's campaign by holding off Giants 36-31 as 3 1/2 point home favorite. Andy Read's troops will face a bigger test in their home opener against this revamped Cowboy defense that forced six turnovers in the opening victory. There is a lot working in Dallas’ favor. Despite it's many shortcomings 'The Boys' have a knack for winning vs non-conference foes posting a smart 6-2 ATS mark the past two seasons including 4-0 ATS as a road underdog. Besides, can you really trust Chiefs as home favorites, they've failed to cover as a home favorite in their last six tries losing each contest straight-up by an average 17.2 PPG

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Matthew Stafford going 28-of-43 for 357 yds with 2 majors along with Reggie Bush coming up big with 191 yds, 1 TD were too much for the Vikings as Lions opened the campaign with a 34-24 victory it's first division win in seven tries and first win in nine attempts dating back to last season. Detroit will play their next game on the road against Arizona Cardinals who squandered a 24-13 third quarter lead at St Louis leaving at the wrong end of a 27-24 decision marking a 12th loss the past 13 on the field. Carson Palmer threw for 327 yards and two scores to Larry Fitzgerald in his Cardinal debut. Interesting to note, Cardinals last victory was a 38-10 spanking of Lions right here in tumble weed country during week-15 last year. For a team that boosted it's offense with Reggie Bush, the Lions aren't getting a whole lot of respect opening 1.5 point favorites. History has a lot to do with it, Lions have a 2-10-1 ATS skid last thirteen away from MoTown, are 1-3 ATS last four encounters with Arizona Red Birds, 2-6-1 ATS it's last nine in September and are 3-9 ATS last twelve as a favorite.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

A highly anticipated NFC West clash takes place at CenturyLink Field Sunday when Wilson and the Seahawks host Kaepernick and his 49ers. Division rivalries are always the most heated and that will definitely be the case between these two powerhouses after Seahawks handed 49ers a four-touchdown thumping in their final meeting last season. Both had contrasting openers, 49ers won a shootout over visiting Packers (34-28) covering the 5 point spot, the Seahawks nearly got punched in the mouth escaping Carolina with a 12-7 victory as 3 point road favorite. Stat wise not much separates these two teams. Over their respective last seventeen regular season games Seahawks (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS) racked up 24.9 PPG on 6.0 yards/play while giving up 14.8 PPG on 5.2 yards/play. As for 49ers (12-4-1 SU, 10-7 ATS) they scored 25.4 behind 6.3 yards/play surrendering 5.2 yards/play, 17.7 points/contest. The betting market has given Seahawks the nod tagging them 3-point home favorites. Seahawk backers should be wary of the small number. The first month of the season has not been a good spot for home favorites of 3.5 or less. Since 2010 they're just 14-29-3 against-the-number. Must also keep in mind, 49ers aren't in the roll of road underdog too often, but when they are, betting accounts increase. The 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 getting points in enemy territory , 5-1 ATS last 6 as road dogs in the month of September.

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Redskins at Packers: Preview & Pick
Sportspic.com

The Green Bay Packers have really struggled against dual-threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick in their last two meetings against the San Francisco 49ers. There is a good chance that the Washington Redskins have looked at the film. The Redskins will travel to Wisconsin this weekend as they clash with Green Bay in an online sports betting match up of teams coming off week-one losses. The Packers allowed Kaepernick to throw for a career-high 412 passing yards and three touchdowns as they focused on keeping him in the pocket and forcing him to throw, a plan that clearly didn’t work. Now they will have to defend Robert Griffin III, who came on strong following a slow start in Washington’s 33-27 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Betting line: Green Bay – 7.5

RGIII opened the 2013 NFL season with a fumble, and interception, and a botched toss that led to a safety on his first three possessions, and it was clear that not taking a single preseason snap hurt. However, Griffin did get going as the game went on, throwing for 329 yards and two touchdowns and at least making it close at the end.

Betting Preview: Washington Redskins

Running back Alfred Morris carried just 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown in week one as the Redskins spent nearly the entire game trying to catch up with Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense that had torched them in the first half. Morris will get more touches in week two, and Washington will look to play more of a balanced game. That doesn’t mean RGIII won’t be looking downfield, but it will be interesting to see how the Packers defend him based on whether he is a threat to run or not. The Redskins’ defense is just happy not to have to play the Eagles this week, but now they go against Aaron Rodgers.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers

Rodgers threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns against a very good 49ers’ defense last week, but it wasn’t enough as the defense couldn’t stop Kaepernick. Rodgers has the potential to put up even better numbers this week, especially after rookie running back Eddie Lacy averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in his NFL regular-season debut. Green Bay needs to tighten things up defensively after being torched in week one, and it may be wise to get as much pressure as possible on the pocket and try to rattle RGIII early on.

Outlook & Pick

The chances of the Packers losing back-to-back games to open the year seemed unlikely heading in to the season, but a tough online betting schedule has opened the door to that possibility. Maybe Rodgers and the offense put up some big totals again and the defense is able to at least slow RGIII down, but covering more than a touchdown against a talented and determined Redskins’ team will not be easy.

Pick: Washington Redskins + 7.5

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 15

Seven NFL Week 2 Injuries to Monitor
By Stephen Nover

Jairus Byrd (Bills): Byrd is a very good free safety, but he's battling plantar fasciitis in both feet. It kept him out of Buffalo's opener against New England and it's likely to keep him out of Sunday's game versus Carolina. Byrd's absence causes the Bills to deal with a cluster injury problem in their secondary as cornerback Stephen Gilmore also is sidelined. Cam Newton should test the Bills' secondary with his big arm, especially having a top deep threat in Steve Smith. That's not a given, however, due to the brain dead Carolina coaching staff of Ron Rivera and new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who believe Newton should run less and throw shorter while DeAngelo Williams gets more carries. That brilliant formula resulted in the Panthers scoring all of seven points at home last week against Seattle.

Champ Bailey (Broncos):  Bailey is a 15-year veteran and potential Hall of Fame cornerback who is slowing down at 35 and sat out last week's victory against the Ravens with a foot injury. The Broncos didn't miss him. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie did an excellent job replacing Bailey. He might even be an upgrade considering Bailey's advanced age. The Broncos, though, will need both players as they face a stronger passing attack taking on the Giants. New York's Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle are among the best trio of wideouts in the NFL.

Sehawks defensive ends Cliff Avril and Chris Clemons: It's scary to think how dominant the Seahawks' defense is going to be when these two excellent pass rushers join the fray after missing the opener. Avril is averaging just under 10 sacks per season during the last three years. He's been out with a hamstring injury. Clemons had the fifth-most sacks in the AFC last year with 11 1/2. He's recovering from knee surgery and missed Seattle's opening win against the Panthers.

Dez Bryant (Cowboys): I'm sure Bryant is going to play. The question is how effective will he be with a foot sprain. The sprain is said to be mild. Despite going against a vulnerable Giants secondary, Bryant caught just four passes for a piddly 22 yards. Bryant is a great talent, but he's not the second-best wide receiver in the NFL as some people think. I would take A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and of course Calvin Johnson over him.

Michael Oher (Ravens): Oher could be the Ravens' best offensive lineman. He suffered an ankle injury against the Broncos last Thursday. Oher, however, practiced in full on Wednesday and is expected to keep his string of never having missed a game since being drafted in the first round in 2009.

Carl Nicks (Buccaneers): Nicks, a two-time Pro Bowler when he played for New Orleans, is one of the best guards in the NFL, but he's been out due to a staph infection. He was replaced in Week 1 by former Bears No. 1 draft pick bust Gabe Carimi, who showed why the Bears no longer wanted him. Nicks practiced on Wednesday for the first time since mid-August. Nicks probably will see action, but how effective will he be? He missed half of last season with a toe injury and has yet to play with fellow stud guard Davin Joseph. Drew Brees was quoted as saying Nicks is a complete guard and a great player. Maybe Nicks is just what struggling Josh Freeman needs.

Andrew Whitworth (Bengals): Whitworth is an underrated offensive left tackle. He missed Cincinnati's opening loss with a knee injury. That ended his streak of 67 straight starts. Andy Dalton sure could use him, but it's more likely Whitworth returns in Week 3 against Green Bay than on Monday night against Pittsburgh. Andrew Collins replaced Whitworth against the Bears. It was his first start at left tackle since 2008. He held over-the-hill Julius Peppers to no sacks. The Bengals' offensive line pass blocked well against the Bears. However, their run blocking wasn't as good as Cincinnati could rush for just eight yards on six carries during the final 30 minutes.

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