Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

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Virginia Tech (-7½) 25 EAST CAROLINA 18VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia Tech played Alabama even from the line of scrimmage with 212 yards at 3.6 yards per play to 206 yards at 3.3 yppl for the Crimson Tide and their 10-35 loss was extremely misleading given that Bama had 3 return touchdowns. The Hokies’ offense is mediocre at best but the defense has been impressive and should be able to limit a sub-par East Carolina attack that gained their 5.8 yards per play against two horrible defensive teams (Old Dominion and Florida Atlantic). East Carolina’s defense has been a bit better than average so far this season, which is how I had them rated entering the year and the Pirates should be able to keep the Hokies’ mediocre attack from scoring too many points. Virginia Tech’s defense is the dominant unit in a game otherwise filled with mediocrity and my ratings favor the Hokies by 10 ½ points with a total of just 42 ½ points. I can’t lean with Virginia Tech because East Carolina applies to a 69-16-2 ATS situation but the under looks like a pretty good play.
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PENN STATE (-5½) 27 Central Florida 23FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UCF’s two dominating wins over Akron and Florida International don’t carry much weight given that Akron was outgained by 142 yards by James Madison last week and FIU also got destroyed by Maryland (10-43 and outgained by 406 yards) in their other game. My preseason ratings had Penn State by 7½ points and using this year’s games favors the Nittany Lions by 6 points, so there the line is certainly reasonable. However, Central Florida applies to a solid 59-24-2 ATS situation that will have me leaning with the Knights.
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UL Monroe (+3) 24 WAKE FOREST 23FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest is really struggling offensively with just 4.5 yards per play against Presbyterian (a horrible defensive team) and Boston College. UL Monroe is solid defensively and only allowed 5.2 yppl at Oklahoma before dominating Grambling last week. UL Monroe should have a slightly worse than average offense this season while Wake Forest has a better than average defense, so the Warhawks will have some trouble moving the ball too. Overall my ratings favor Wake Forest by only 1 ½ points and UL Monroe applies to a 22-3 ATS game 3 road underdog situation.
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PITTSBURGH (-21½) 34 New Mexico 17SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh had an extra week off to get ready for the New Mexico option after getting blown out by Florida State in their Monday night opener two weeks ago and the Panthers do apply to a 74-28 ATS big favorite off a bye angle. However, New Mexico applies to a 139-75-2 ATS statistical matchup indicator and I think their option attack will have enough success in this game to keep it relatively competitive. My ratings favor Pitt by only 17 points so I’ll lean with the Lobos plus the points.
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USC (-14) 26 Boston College 14FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The talk about USC is centering on how bad their pass attack has been, which is certainly newsworthy, but that problem has overshadowed how well the USC defense is. Getting rid of former NFL defensive genius Monte Kiffin and his cover two defense was a great decision and the Trojans can go back to an attacking style of defense that suits their high talent level. The result has been a unit that has given up just 3.1 yards per play while their starters have been in the game (they gave up 60 yards on 2 plays with backups in at the end of the Hawaii game). Limiting Washington State to just 10 points on 228 yards and 4.0 yppl is a great defensive effort and the Trojans have an edge of a pretty good Boston College offense.
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USC’s offense has generated only 4.1 yppl in two games, which is horrible. Cody Kessler (4.1 yards per pass play) and Max Wittek (3.2 yppp) have both been horrible and Kessler has been named the starter for this game. The pass attack can’t possibly be as bad as it’s been but my ratings, which would have favored USC by 17 ½ points prior to the season, now favor the Trojans by just 12 points.
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Georgia Tech (-8½) 31 DUKE 28FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The worst thing about Duke’s team in recent years was their horrible pass defense, which had improved this season so far, but that weakness is not going to be taken full advantage of by a Georgia Tech offense that runs the ball 80% of the time. Duke defended the option rushing attack pretty well last season, allowing just 4.8 yards per rushing play and 5.5 yards per play on the road to a Yellow Jackets team that would average 5.7 yppl and 6.3 yppl at home against an average defensive team. Duke’s defense is much better this season and the mediocre offense is good enough to move the ball against what I expect to be another mediocre Georgia Tech defense. My ratings, which take into account matchups, favor the Yellow Jackets by just 4 points and the Blue Devils apply to a decent 53-21-4 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I like Duke plus the points.
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Maryland (-6½) 30 CONNECTICUT 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Maryland has looked great in their first two games, beating Florida International and Old Dominion by an average score of 45-10. Those are two bad teams but their compensated stats show a much improved offense with quarterback C.J. Brown back under center after missing last year with an injury. U Conn opened the season with an 18-33 home loss to Towson State that was not a fluke given that the Huskies were outgained by 110 yards and 5.2 yards per play to 5.8 yppl. There are a few situations favoring U Conn in this game but I like what I’ve seen from Maryland so far this season so I’ll lean with the Terps despite the negative spot they’re in.
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Iowa (-2½) 25 IOWA STATE 24FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa State started the season with a 20-28 home loss to FBS team Northern Iowa (although NIU is only a few points worse than an average FCS team) while Iowa played a better than average Northern Illinois team evenly on a neutral field in week 1 (lost 27-30) and then failed to cover in a 28-14 home win over Missouri State (they were favored by 25 ½ points). My ratings actually favor Iowa by 4 ½ points in this game but the Hawkeyes apply to a very negative 63-141-6 ATS 1st road game situation and I’ll lean with the Cyclones based on that.
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NORTHWESTERN (-30) 49 Western Michigan 14
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Northwestern is has averaged 7.3 yards per play in both of their games, at Cal and home against Syracuse, and I can’t imagine Western Michigan slowing the Wildcats down. The Broncos just gave up 449 yard at 7.9 yppl in a home loss to Nicholls State, a team that is about 25 points worse than an average FBS team. Western Michigan did allow only 3.9 yppl to Michigan State but Michigan State gained only 4.3 yppl against South Florida last week and South Florida gave up 6.3 yppl and 53 points to McNeese State the previous week. In other words, the 3.9 yppl that Western Michigan allowed to Michigan State doesn’t really say much given how badly Michigan State moved the ball against a USF team that gave up 53 points to McNeese State. All of this is incorporated into my model and the math favors Northwestern by 31 points based on this year’s games, so the line is justifiable. I like Northwestern here based on a very good 151-66-1 ATS statistical matchup indicator that has done very well even at bigger lines (60-26 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 28 points. I have this game some serious consideration this week but ultimately decided not to make it a Best Bet.
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WEST VIRGINIA (-40) 51 Georgia State 10SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia barely beat William & Mary and got beat up at Oklahoma so they should want to get their frustrations out today. Georgia State gave up 407 rushing yards at 7.0 yards per run to Chattanooga last week and West Virginia should be able to run the ball at will.
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OKLAHOMA (-24½) 40 Tulsa 12FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The line on this game has rightfully come down from an opening number of 27 points, as my rating favor the Sooners by just 20 ½ points. The problem with Oklahoma has been their normally potent pass attack, which has averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards per pass play in their first two games against UL Monroe and West Virginia, two teams that are not very good at defending the pass. The rushing attack has been great (330 yards per game at 6.4 yards per rushing play) and the Sooners’ defense looks like it could be an elite group again (4.4 yards per play) with former defensive coordinator Mike Stoops in his 2nd year back in Norman. Tulsa is offensively challenged (just 4.7 yppl against Bowling Green and Colorado State) and I don’t expect the Golden Hurricane to have many scoring opportunities. Tulsa does have a better than average defense, which is the troubling part of this play. However, it’s likely that Blake Bell will do a better job throwing the ball than injured starter Trevor Knight did (just 44% completions and 4.3 yards per attempt) and Bell should run the ball just as well. I still think the line is too high but Oklahoma applies to a very strong 122-41-5 ATS situation that is based on their strong defense and I never buck that trend.
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Western Kentucky (-9) 32 SOUTH ALABAMA 24
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My ratings favor Western Kentucky by only 7 ½ points and South Alabama has shown enough offense (6.1 yards per play against Southern Utah and Tulane) to take advantage of a soft Hilltoppers’ defense (6.5 yppl allowed to Kentucky and Tennessee). The Jaguars also look improved defensively (a respectable 5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average team) and I’ll lean with the home dog here against a defensively challenged visitor.
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Marshall (-8) 36 OHIO 33FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshall’s offense has racked up 53.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play against two horrible teams (Miami-Ohio and Gardner Webb) so this will be their first test. Ohio isn’t actually a good team and last year’s 9-4 record was a mirage based on a +15 turnover margin, but the Bobcats are still a step up and the Thundering Herd apply to a negative 71-153-1 ATS 1st road game letdown situation. Ohio played well at home last week against North Texas, outgaining the Eagles 445 yards at 6.5 yppl to 299 yards at 4.5 yppl so they should have some confidence heading into this game against a team due for a letdown.
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Northern Illinois (-28½) 48 IDAHO 17FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Illinois applies to a 70-38-2 ATS situation that plays on game 2 teams that won their opener and then had a bye week. That angle is particularly good for big favorites (26-4 ATS for favorites of more than 17 points) but the line on this game has gone from -24 to -28 ½ points and my ratings favor the Huskies by 28. The line is pretty fair and the situation certainly favors Northern Illinois against an Idaho defense that’s given up an average of 579 yards at 7.4 yards per play to North Texas and Wyoming.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

Dr Bob

AUBURN (-6) 33 Mississippi State 24

Gus Malzahn is back at Auburn and the offense has returned with him. Malzahn was the offensive coordinator from 2009 to 2011 before going to Arkansas State for a year as the head coach and leading the Red Wolves to a 10-3 record. Malzahn’s offense has averaged 432 yard at 6.5 yards per play against Washington State, who just held USC to 7 points, and Arkansas State and the Tigers’ attack looks even better than I had projected (I had them at 0.5 yppl better than average heading into the season). Auburn’s defense has played pretty well too, allowing just 5.3 yppl to a pair of pretty good offensive teams and Mississippi State, overrated last season, is nothing special. My ratings favor Auburn by 8 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Tigers to go to 3-0 on the season before being really tested next week at LSU. The over also looks like a pretty good play.

WEST VIRGINIA (-40) 51 Georgia State 10

West Virginia barely beat William & Mary and got beat up at Oklahoma so they should want to get their frustrations out today. Georgia State gave up 407 rushing yards at 7.0 yards per run to Chattanooga last week and West Virginia should be able to run the ball at will.

UL Monroe (+3) 24 WAKE FOREST 23

Wake Forest is really struggling offensively with just 4.5 yards per play against Presbyterian (a horrible defensive team) and Boston College. UL Monroe is solid defensively and only allowed 5.2 yppl at Oklahoma before dominating Grambling last week. UL Monroe should have a slightly worse than average offense this season while Wake Forest has a better than average defense, so the Warhawks will have some trouble moving the ball too. Overall my ratings favor Wake Forest by only 1 ½ points and UL Monroe applies to a 22-3 ATS game 3 road underdog situation.

Western Kentucky (-9) 32 SOUTH ALABAMA 24

My ratings favor Western Kentucky by only 7 ½ points and South Alabama has shown enough offense (6.1 yards per play against Southern Utah and Tulane) to take advantage of a soft Hilltoppers’ defense (6.5 yppl allowed to Kentucky and Tennessee). The Jaguars also look improved defensively (a respectable 5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average team) and I’ll lean with the home dog here against a defensively challenged visitor.

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Great Lakes SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville at KentuckyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Louisville Cardinals are one of the elite teams in the country this year behind QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Louisville Cardinals ate a rock sild 8-3 ATS when playing on the road the last three years and the Louisville Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 ATS their last three games against SEC opponents. The Kentucky Wildcats are a dismal 3-7 ATS when playing the last three years in September and they are a terrible 5-12 ATSthe last three years in the role of an underdog. We look for the Louisville Cardinals big today over the Kentucky Wildcats and grab the road ATS win&cover tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Connecticut +7 over MarylandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Terrapins are 2-0 with big numbers in what most expect to be a breakthrough season. With Connecticut dropping the opener to Towson this line has climbed substantially, considering the Huskies were favored at Maryland last season. Connecticut has had two weeks to stew over the loss however and Towson was one of the top teams in the Colonial last season, one of the better FCS conferences. This will be the first road game for a Maryland team that is 5-20 S/U on the road the last five seasons. Maryland allowed over 300 yards last week and benefitted from turnovers to create the 47-10 margin against Old Dominion. Randy Edsall also will be coaching against a lot of the players that he recruited to Connecticut now in his third season at Maryland after two rough seasons after making the surprise jump. Look for the Huskies to play much better this week and Maryland will not have quite the same success away from home. Connecticut is on an 18-7-1 ATS run as a home underdog since 2001 as well.

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Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech -8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Take Georgia Tech. They should be able to run the ball easily and control the ball. GT QB Vad Lee is from the Durham, NC area. The crowd should not make a difference as most of the students will be sleeping in tents trying to get basketball tickets. Duke was outscored by an average of 24 ppg in their last 5 games in 2012. They lost QB Anthony Boone to an injury and the Blue Devils should struggle to run the ball. I like GT to win by 10 to 14 points.

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Kyle Hunter

Texas-San Antonio vs. Arizona    
Play: Arizona -24

The Arizona Wildcats is a team that loves to run up the score. Rich Rodriguez isn't going to call off the dogs early in this one. UTSA is still developing as a program, and I don't expect them to be ready for Arizona's powerful rushing attack. Arizona's defense is steadily improving and they should be able to control the line of scrimmage against UTSA. Look for Arizona to get ahead early and pour it on here. Take Arizona.

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Lee Williams

Stanford vs. Army    
Play: Stanford -30

This game could get ugly quite rapidly as this is one of weakest Army versions we have seen in a while and are completely outmatched on both lines.Stanford also very strong against run, so it is difficult for us to think Army will reach end zone more then once.Stanford is 11-2 ATS last 13 non-conference games. Take Stanford here.

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Nick Parsons

Houston Astros +150

The last couple of free plays have featured mid to larger sized favorites (both easy victories). Tonight I'm going to recommend a look at an underdog that I feel offers fantastic value in this particular matchup.

Jered Weaver (9-8, 3.38 ERA)

Weaver gave up three runs off nine hits and two walks over six frames while striking out five. Weaver has now thrown four-straight quality starts, going 2-1 in that span.

Brett Oberholtzer (4-2, 2.65 ERA)

Oberholtzer is coming off a great start, giving up just a single run off seven hits with no walks over six innings in his team's eventual 2-1 loss to the A's on Saturday.

The southpaw has given up only one earned run over his last 15 innings pitched and is a spectacular 2-1 with a tiny 2.36 ERA in five appearances (three starts) in front of the home town crowd.

The Bottom Line

Houston is rolling right now, looking to win a fifth straight after yesterday's 9-7 victory.

One player you'll want to keep your eyes on today is the home sides' Matt Dominguez, who hit a grand slam yesterday and who is 6 for 10 with four extra-base hits and six RBIs over his last three games.

This is a good spot to play on the home side underdog. A red hot lineup backed by a white hot hurler.

I'm jumping on the Astros.

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Justin Bay

Stanford vs. Army    
Play: Army +30

Army is a team that you can rely on to give you 110% every game no matter who they are playing, what the weather is, or where the game is being held. Just like every year, Army will be running an option offense which melts the clock down very fast especially if they can get a couple first downs. Angel Santiago, Army’s quarterback, only threw 11 times last game with a total of 49 yards and 1 interception.

Stanford has been very solid this year with little mistakes and a very sufficient offense and defense. The Cardinal have a very good running game as Tyler Gaffeny and Anthony Wilkerson take turns with the handoffs. The only thing Stanford has against them is experience, with a lot of young players on the roster.

Stanford will have no problem getting the win in this one but Army should be able to keep the clock moving throughout the game.


Kent State vs. LSU
Play: Under 54

Kent State came into this season with a new head coach Paul Haynes, who was the Arkansas Razorbacks defensive coordinator last season. Hayne’s defense limited the Tiger’s to only 306 total yards in a 20-13 loss last year with the Razorbacks. The Golden Flashes are going to have trouble against LSU, but I think their defense will limit the damage and keep the offense in the game.

LSU has been very impressive this year on the offensive side of the ball. They have averaged 446.5 yards/game while scoring on all nine of their trips inside the red zone. Zach Mettenberger will have some issues against the Kent State defense who forced 37 turnovers in its first 13 games last year.

The UNDER is 3-1 in LSU’s last four home games with the betting total between 52.5 and 56.

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Don Best Consensus

Maryland at Connecticut
Pick: Maryland

Maryland (2-0) travels to Connecticut (0-1) Satuday and the Terps are ready to make a statement. Maryland has produced over 500 yards of offense in back-to-back games to open the season; winning 43-10 vs FIU and 48-10 vs ODU. Connecticut opened the season with an embarrassing home loss to divison 2 Towson 33-18; followed by a bye week. In the Towson game, Uconn only managed 84 rushing yards on 28 carries.(3.0ypc) Connecticut will have a hard time running on 1st and 2nd down, forcing QB Whitmer to convert 3rd and long. After two impressive performances, the Maryland offense and defense are both highly ranked nationally. The Terrapin offense is avergaing 45 points a game, which is tied for 24th nationally with Clemson, and is averaging 581.5 yards of total offense, good for 12th. Defensively, the Terps are conceeding just 253.0 yards per contest, which is tied for the 16th, and are tied for 15th in scoring defense having allowed just 10 points in each of their two games. Lay the 6 with the Terps.

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Andy Iskoe

Alabama -8.5

This eagerly anticipated game has been on the minds of Alabama coach Saban and his players since the stunning loss suffered last season at home in their first SEC encounter with the Aggies. It was the game that contributed the moniker "Johnny Football" to the sporting lexicon as A&M QB Manziel burst onto the scene with his first half performance vs the Tide that ultimately propelled him to winning the Heisman Trophy. Manziel's much chronicled off season issues may have created a schism in the locker room but, more to the point, seems to suggest that he can be rattled and may not respond well to repeated pressure. 'Bama had a week off to prepare for A&M, whose defense will be far less formidable than the Virginia Tech defense that contained the Crimson Tide in their opener. At the same time, the 'Bama defense, which made nice half time adjustments in last season's loss, will be better prepared for Manziel and the Aggies offense. An above average amount of intangibles come into play for this contest and that gives an added edge to the more talented team.

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Charlie Scott

New Mexico vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -22.5

After opening up Labor Day weekend getting blown out by a talented Florida St Team, Pittsburgh has had a week off to recover and looking for a patsy to take their frustration on,, and New Mexico pops up on the schedule. New Mexico's defense is NOT any good as Pitt will be able to score whenever they want like Florida St did to them. New Mexico seems content with the lucky OT win they got last week @ UTEP. Lay the Big Number

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Kyle Hunter

UTSA vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -24

The Arizona Wildcats is a team that loves to run up the score. Rich Rodriguez isn't going to call off the dogs early in this one. UTSA is still developing as a program, and I don't expect them to be ready for Arizona's powerful rushing attack. Arizona's defense is steadily improving and they should be able to control the line of scrimmage against UTSA. Look for Arizona to get ahead early and pour it on here. Take Arizona.

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Dave Essler

Vanderbilt +14

I've deliberated this all week, and it was either going to be a 3* huge bet, or a 1*. I can see several ways this plays out, but the most common one is a lower scoring game with Vanderbilt staying within the number. The Gamecocks, especially defensively, are simply not a good as the world would have you believe, and Vanderbilt may have lost Rodgers and Stacy, but they do not suck and are well coached.

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John Ryan

Louisville at Kentucky
Prediction: Kentucky

The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will lose this game by 10 or fewer points and has a solid shot at an upset win too. Consider adding an optional 1* amount using the money line to the 5* play using the line. The Kentucky defense can contain this high powered offense by first stopping the run. The SIM shows that Kentucky will allow between 50 and 100 rushing yards. In past games, Kentucky is a resounding 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 25-6 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed between 50 and 100 rushing yards in a game. They are also 2-0 ATS the past three seasons and 12-3 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 2.5 to 3.0 rushing yards per attempt. Here is a supporting system that ahs gone 68-31 ATS since 1992. Play against a road team (LOUISVILLE) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. Take Kentucky.

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Paul Desmond

Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina
Play: Over 47.5

We have monitored this line move from a 7 to a 8.5 and we just love a good home dog, especially since The Hokies were 0-4 as a road favorite last yr. ECU has 2 key injuries at the LB position as well with Tudor and Grove espected to miss but we feel one of them will suck it up and suit up for this one. VT will score some points in this one and we expect some over action and we just love a live home dog with a team that can score. [ECU + Over]


Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M +9.5

We have watched this line move from a 7 to a 9 indicating that the street is very much in love with the Crimson Tide. Everybody loves a winner...So who is Texas A+M? Losers? They got covered on twice at home last yr as a home dog, in their rookie year as SEC members by The Gators game 1, as a one pt underdog, and they lost by 5 vs LSU as a 3.5 pt underdog. Both top notch teams. Now the All Mighty and His Elephants come storming into College Station to Take on The Heisman Trophy Winner at the home of the 12th Man. Come on. Pat Sumlin is an offensive genious and if you think he doesn't have a few tricks up his sleave for this one you have another thing coming. We respect Alabama more than you know and they can very well win this one but not by more than 7!

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Cajun Sports

UTSA vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -24

The Roadrunners face a BCS team for the first time on the road although their first BCS opponent was last week as they faced the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The RR's got four fourth quarter touchdowns to cut into the Cowboys 42 to 7 lead at the end of three quarters but the outcome was long decided as the Cowboys won 56 to 35. The RR's gave up 605 yards of offense and now face a Wildcats team that is averaging 352 yards rushing per game this season. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 30.7-points in favor of the Cats. The Math Model projects a point differential of 5.90-points with a line range of -25 to -26.5. All signs point to a Cats win and cover on Saturday night. One final note we want to Play ON CFB teams off back-to-back wins by 27 or more points facing an opponent who gave up 37 or more points their last time out. These play ON teams have a record of 106-53 ATS for 66 percent winners. Lay the points with the Cats

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

Joe Gavazzi

Oregon State vs. Utah
Play: Utah +3

It’s not unusual for the Beavers to start slowly under 13th year HC Riley. Last year, was the first time in the last decade that Oregon St. had a greater than .500 ATS record after the first 4 games. This year has reverted to that type of negative start despite 17 RS, 60 lettermen, and a tandem of starting signal callers in Mannion and Vaz. Nonetheless, the Beavs lost opening night as -27 home chalk, 49-46 to E. Wash. who dropped 625 TY on their host. Last week in an obvious bounceback spot on their home field v. outmanned Hawaii , the Beavers could not cover the 26 pt. impost in a 33-14 victory in which they were outrushed 69-57. That’s 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS with a -37 AFP. This bureau expected positive returns under 9th year Utah HC Whittingham. The Utes suffered a rare losing season, at 5-7 SU, 5-6 ATS LY, when they averaged only 324 YPG and allowed 25 PPG. Enter new OC Erickson, aided by former Ute QB Johnson. They have teamed with QB Wilson for a game 1 comeback victory v. a still quality Utah St. team, and a game 2 no let down win v. Weber St. 70-7 in which the Utes put up 628 yards. That is 2-0 SU ATS with a +43 AFP. Yet, nary a move by the linemaker. Riding the Utes till further notice.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

Dave Price

Baltimore Orioles -137

The Orioles are showing value at this price given the edge they have on the mound with Chris Tillman. The right-hander is 16-5 with a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts and has done his best work on the road where he's 8-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 13 outings. The Orioles are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts versus losing teams and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have lost their last 5 at home, and will have a tough time ending this skid with Esmil Rogers getting the ball. The Jays are 1-4 in his last 5 at home where he has a 5.78 ERA on the season. Take Baltimore.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

Mike Williams

Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida    
Play: Florida Atlantic +12

I'm backing the Florida Atlantic Owls on the road vs. the South Florida bulls. Both teams are sitting at 0-2 on the season, the Owls have are the much better 0-2 team. FAU are 2-0 ATS so far this season and lost a tough game on the road to East Carolina last week out gaining ECU in yardage and time of possession. The Bulls have looked down right awful this season they lost to McNeese State by 32 points in week one, the Bulls were a 21 point favorite that game. South Florida players are learning a new system with new head coach Willie Taggart and the struggles with his team to learn are glaring. The Bulls are only scoring an average of 13.5 points per game and give up 37 points. I expect the FAU to keep this game close against a in state foe Saturday. Take FAU Saturday

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