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MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
Tuesday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
Rockies-Phillies: This is really the time when stuff doesn't matter much, and I'd have to give a slight edge to the Phillies w/a new manager, but wonder if it can negate what Cloyd is capable undoing. I do like De La Rosa, since he's only really had the one bad game against Atlanta. But, the threw two straight 100+ pitch games, which he hasn't done since May. So, I probably lean Phillies here, but no 3* for sure.
Dodgers-Miami: Writing this before the "Jose" game starts. If the Dodgers win against Fernandez, this line is likely to be more than -150 before first pitch. If that is the case, I may be inclined to look at the Miami RL. Capuano is certainly a feast or famine type pitcher, and there's enough evidence to support Miami scoring. Turner at home has been impressive, and if Miami had a bullpen I'd play the ML here, perhaps.
Atlanta-Mets: Tough break for the Mets having to stop in Minnesota while the Braves got to rest. Wheeler off of three straight 100+ pitch games, and Beachy making his first road start. I have a lean to the over in this one, figuring Beachy's been hit by Atlanta before, and Wheeler could get hit hard. This is yet another home team that I could consider the RL, actually.
Arizona-Cincinnati: Corbins' been hit around a bit lately and has also thrown a ton of pitches, however he's handled the Reds in couple of starts fairly well. Cingrani continues to give the Reds one quality start after another, and with the Reds bullpen as good as it gets (most of the time) I'd have to look for the Reds to win a low scoring game here.
Nationals-Cubs: A month ago we'd have been all over the Cubs as a fade or Haren, but in the last month Haren has been in beast-mode. Most of Rusins' good games have come against weaker competition, but still waiting for Haren to implode and knowing what he's capable of (the implosion) I'd still have to lean Cubs, if for no other reason than as a fade of the Nationals against a LHP.
Cardinals-Brewers: At first glance I'd say there's one pitcher that might give the Cardinals some trouble, and that's Lohse against his former team. Problem is that his former team has simply owned him. And of course Lynn can be brilliant or get crushed, and typically he's pitched well against the Brewers. I simply don't trust the fact that this game is that easy, and if that total is going to stay down under 8 then I might think Milwaukee has a fighting chance, if for no other reason than they've probably got a better bullpen.
Pirates-Padres: AJ probably still living a little large of the love he's received in the last year or so, and we know what happened in his last two road starts--he was torched. I still go back to the game a month or so ago when Ross burned me, and I watched first hand my money do down the drain and how dominant he COULD be. So, for that reason (as in Shark Tank) I could only take the Padres, again.
Rays-Orioles: I looked at this game earlier on behalf on someone else. Cobb pitched "decent" in his return from getting beaned, so does that give him confidence going forward? I think so, and Gonzalez might be little over valued here. Let's not forget how badly the Astros made him look at home no long ago. If the Rays bullpen would get their shit together (they have been better lately) then I really like Tampa Bay here, but I like a low scoring game more, I think. Haven't looked at the weather.
White Sox-Royals: I will never lay -175 with Ervin Santana. It's just that simple. He's far too much of a flyball pitcher and going against a team that lives and dies by the bomb. Danks' season long WHIP of 1.18 or thereabouts is just sneaky enough to get the job done, and there's no reason in the world for me not to take the White Sox RL, probably.
Seattle-Oakland: No chance of taking Saunders under any condition, which means I should probably think about it, The guys' gone fro being -130 at home to the Brewers (and getting crushed) to +185 at Tampa Bay and now about the same in Oakland. I guess my only issue here is how good is Sonny Gray. He did shut down the Astros, but it took him 118 pitches to do it, and Seattle is obviously a better bet against RHP's, so, by process of elimination, I could do over 8 before it goes to 8.5, and I think it will.
Boston-Giants: Again, I hate betting on the Red Sox without a DH unless they put Ortiz at first. Peavy has never been a big strike out guy and does give up a lot of long outs, but in this park he might be able to get away with it. Vogelsong hasn't been the same since his run last summer, so for that reason I'd have to, by process of elimination, take Boston, now that they've had a day of PST.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
Tuesday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (+100, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa has won back-to-back starts, surrendering three runs over 12 innings in that span.
Cold batting stat: Phillies OF Domonic Brown is batting just .214 with zero RBIs in 28 at-bats against the Rockies this season.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 10-1 in De La Rosa's last 11 starts as a favorite.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+126, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler has allowed just two runs over his previous two starts, racking up 16 strikeouts while issuing one walk.
Cold batting stat: Braves C Evan Gattis, once considered a front-runner for the National League rookie of the year award, has just one home run since June 10.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: New York has lost four of its last five home games after returning from a road trip of seven or more days.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (-142, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Arizona right-hander Patrick Corbin silenced the Reds in their last encounter, limiting them to one run on three hits over eight innings.
Cold batting stat: Diamondbacks OF Jason Kubel has gone deep just five times in 233 at-bats after racking up 30 homers a season ago.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 3 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 44-17-4 in the last 65 meetings.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins (+132, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Dodgers left-hander Chris Capuano has been shelled over his last two starts, surrendering nine runs on 20 hits in 9 1/3 innings.
Cold batting stat: Los Angeles OF Yasiel Puig went 0-for-5 in Monday's series opener and hasn't hit a home run since Aug. 1.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s but with a 60 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Wind will blow from right to left field at 10 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 9-2-1 in Capuano's last 12 starts as a favorite.
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs (+121)
Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Dan Haren has allowed just four runs over his last four starts and earned his first career save last time out, working a scoreless inning against Atlanta.
Hot batting stat: Cubs OF Nate Schierholtz, who entered the series with one career homer in 58 at-bats against Washington, went deep twice and finished with six RBIs in Monday's 11-1 victory.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (+123, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn had one of his worst outings of the season against Milwaukee back in mid-May, allowing four runs on eight hits while lasting just five innings.
Hot batting stat: St. Louis C Yadier Molina equaled a season high with four hits in Monday's victory.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 13-1 in Milwaukee right-hander Kyle Lohse's last 14 starts against a team with a winning record.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (+108, 6.5)
Cold pitching stat: Pirates right-hander A.J. Burnett has just one victory in his last eight starts and has surrendered 11 runs on 16 hits over his last 10 innings.
Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh C Russell Martin was given Monday off after striking out 10 times in his previous five games.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-0 in Burnett's last four road starts.
Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants (+136, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Giants right-hander Ryan Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 6.68 ERA in six home starts in 2013.
Hot batting stat: San Francisco OF Jeff Francoeur is 11-for-32 lifetime against Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Boston has won 10 of its last 11 Tuesday games.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
Tuesday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Game 1) (-200)
Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays right-hander Esmil Rogers hasn't won in his last 10 starts and has surrendered seven or more runs four times in that span.
Hot batting stat: Toronto RF Jose Bautista has belted 18 home runs in 207 at-bats against the Yankees over his career.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s under sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The Yankees are 9-2 in right-hander Ivan Nova's last 11 starts on five days' rest.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Game 2) (-192)
Hot pitching stat: Blue Jays left-hander Mark Buehrle has been the hottest pitcher on the staff, winning five straight decisions while surrendering just eight runs over that stretch.
Hot batting stat: Yankees 2B Robinson Cano is a .348 hitter with three home runs and 10 RBIs in just 23 at-bats against Buehrle.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Toronto has won its last four doubleheader finales.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Rays right-hander Alex Cobb hasn't lost since April 30 in Kansas City, and has surrendered more than three earned runs in a start just once since then.
Cold batting stat: Orioles OF Nick Markakis hasn't homered since June 24, a span of 47 games and 200 at-bats.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 19-6-1 in Baltimore's last 26 Tuesday games.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-208, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey is winless over his last seven starts and is 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA in 21 career innings against the Tigers.
Cold batting stat: Minnesota 1B Justin Morneau has struck out 105 times in 503 career at-bats against Detroit, easily his highest whiff total against any major-league team.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Detroit.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-303, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Astros rookie right-hander Jared Cosart is off to a sizzling start to his major-league career, surrendering just six earned runs over his first 39 innings.
Cold batting stat: Houston is hitting just .248 against left-handed pitching in 2013.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 6-1-1 in the last eight Tuesday games in Houston.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-170, 8)
Cold pitching stat: White Sox left-hander John Danks has gone winless over his last eight outings and is 0-6 with a 5.13 ERA in eight road starts.
Hot batting stat: Royals 1B Eric Hosmer is hitting .315 over his last 71 games after failing to crack .270 in either of the first two months of the season.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Kansas City is 2-9 in its last 11 home games against a team with a road winning percentage lower than .400.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (-192, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray had the best performance of his young career last time out, surrendering just four hits over eight scoreless innings in a win over Houston.
Cold batting stat: Oakland OF Yoenis Cespedes is just 1-for-7 in his career against Seattle left-hander Joe Saunders.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-1-2 in Saunders' last seven starts
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (-145, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Angels left-hander C.J. Wilson has won his last five decisions, including a 5 1/3-inning stint earlier this month.in which he surrendered just two runs in a win over Cleveland.
Cold batting stat: Indians 2B Jason Kipnis has homered just twice in 109 at-bats since the All-Star break after going deep 13 times in the first half.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: The Angels have won 12 of their last 15 games against American League Central opponents.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
Tuesday's Top Action
By Kevin Rogers
Rays at Orioles
Probables: A. Cobb (7-2, 2.94 ERA) vs. M. Gonzalez (8-5, 3.84 ERA)
Series recap: Tampa Bay held off Baltimore, 4-3 in the series opener to cash as $1.30 road favorites. The Rays have now beaten the Orioles in six of the last seven meetings, including four straight victories at Camden Yards.
Current trends: Since losing six straight games, the Rays have rebounded nicely by grabbing wins in five of the last six contests. Tampa Bay improved to 11-3 the last 14 games against division opponents, including a 9-2 mark on the road. The Orioles have lost five of their past seven games, while the 'over' is 6-2 in the last eight contests.
Diamondbacks at Reds
Probables: P. Corbin (12-3, 2.48 ERA) vs. T. Cingrani (6-2, 2.78 ERA)
Series recap: Cincinnati picked up a 5-3 victory over Arizona, snapping the D-Backs' two-game winning streak. The Reds won their seventh game in their last nine tries, while splitting four meetings this season with Arizona.
Current trends: In spite of last night's loss, the D-Backs own an 8-4 record the last 12 games, while cashing the 'over' in seven of the past 11 contests. The Reds have won six of their last nine games at the Great American Ballpark, while holding opponents to three runs or less in nine of their past 11 games.
White Sox at Royals
Probables: J. Danks (2-10, 4.54 ERA) vs. E. Santana (8-6, 3.19 ERA)
Previous series recap: Chicago took three of four games at Minnesota, while scoring 18 runs in the three victories. Kansas City dropped three of five games at Detroit, failing to pick up any ground on the Tigers in the AL Central race. The Royals begin tonight's action seven games behind Detroit, as Kansas City has only six games left with the division leader.
Current trends: The Royals have stumbled recently with losses in five of their last seven games, but Kansas City is 4-1 in its last five home series openers. Chicago is playing with revenge after getting swept at home by Kansas City last month, as all three games finished 'under' the total.
Cardinals at Brewers
Probables: L. Lynn (13-6, 3.89 ERA) vs. K. Lohse (8-8, 3.17 ERA)
Series recap: St. Louis and Milwaukee went back-and-forth last night, but the Cardinals picked up an 8-5 victory as $1.45 road favorites. The 'over' has hit between the Cards and Brewers in five of the last six meetings, including each of the last three at Miller Park.
Current trends: The Cardinals are red-hot on the road recently by winning six of the last eight games away from Busch Stadium (all against division opponents). The Brewers have won seven of their last 10 Game 2's of a home series dating back to late May, including underdog triumphs over the Reds, Dodgers, A's, and Braves.
Indians at Angels
Probables: D. Salazar (1-1, 4.08 ERA) vs. C.J. Wilson (13-6, 3.40 ERA)
Series recap: Cleveland drew first blood by getting to Jered Weaver early in a 5-2 road underdog victory. The Indians and Angels have split their first four meetings this season, while Los Angeles is riding a 2-7 slump at the moment.
Current trends: Since beating Oakland twice after the All-Star break, Los Angeles has won just nine of their last 29 games. The Angels fell short of an 'over' in last night's loss, but L.A. has cashed the 'over' in eight of the previous 10 contests. The Indians have split their last eight games following a six-game losing streak, while winning each of their past Game 2's of a road series.
Pirates at Padres
Probables: A.J. Burnett (5-8, 3.18 ERA) vs. T. Ross (3-5, 2.62 ERA)
Series recap: Pittsburgh overcame a 16-inning loss on Sunday as the Pirates traveled cross-country and knocked off the Padres on Monday, 3-1. The loss snapped a four-game skid for the Bucs in the role of a road favorite, while San Diego's modest two-game winning streak came to a close.
Current trends: The Pirates have lost each of Burnett's last five starts on the road, while six of his last seven away outings have gone 'over' the total. San Diego has dropped five of its past seven games at Petco Park, while the Padres own a 1-4 record the previous five contests against NL Central opponents.
Red Sox at Giants
Probables: J. Peavy (9-5, 4.41 ERA) vs. R. Vogelsong (2-4, 6.75 ERA)
Series recap: Boston started its West Coast trip in style by shutting out San Francisco, 7-0 as short road favorites. That victory by the Red Sox was just the second in the last six series openers, while San Francisco has dropped two straight following a three-game winning streak.
Current trends: The Giants own a 3-5 record against American League opponents at home this season, while scoring two runs or less in five of the last six home interleague contests. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last four games off a victory, while splitting their past six contests in the role of a road favorite.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
A battle of A.L. East bottom feeders takes place at Yankee Stadium Tuesday when Yankees and Blue Jays play a double header. In the early game NY has Ivan Nova scheduled with the righty bringing a 6-4 record 2.99 ERA to the mound. Nova, 2-0 his last three (3-0 TSR) with a miniscule 1.69 ERA puts a 5-2 team start record vs Toronto on the line. Nova will be matching pitches with Jay's Esmil Rogers who has a 3-7 record 4.91 ERA. The right-hander winless in ten starts (3-7 TSR) has never faced Yankees as a starter. In the night cap Phil Hughes is scheduled for New York. Hughes, 4-12 on the campaign with a 4.97 ERA has lost three straight and is winless in seven starts (2-5 TSR). On a positive note, the hurler has a 12-5 TSR vs Jays which includes an 8-1 streak in the Big Apple. As for Jays, they'll be looking to win a sixth straight with Mark Buehrle who carries a 9-7 mark, 4.29 ERA to the mound. Easier said than done, the left-hander has not had success during his career vs Yankees posting a 1-10 mark over 15 starts (1-14 TSR) including 0-3 wearing a Blue Jay uniform. The most compelling numbers in Yankees’ favor, the club has owned Toronto winning 8-of-9 this season including 5-0 at the Stadium bringing the mark to 18-2 last twenty in New York, 32-10 L42 hosting Jays.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 20
MLB Odds and Picks - Going back with Miami?
By: The Linemakers
When the Los Angeles Dodgers were riding a 10-game win streak after Saturday's win at Philadelphia, their 42-8 record was the best 50-game stretch since the 1942 Cardinals.
The impressive stretch started in San Diego on June 22, when last-place Los Angeles was 9.5 games behind Arizona. Now, the Dodgers are in first place with an 8.5 game lead over the Diamondbacks.
After losing in the ninth inning on Sunday at Philadelphia and then getting dominated at Miami by rookie Jose Fernandez on Monday, the Dodgers are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since June 8-10. Los Angeles faces Miami in the second of a four-game series.
There's no shame in losing to Fernandez because he's been the hottest pitcher in baseball since June 1 with a 1.64 ERA. He's been even tougher at Marlins Park this year (6-0, 1.40 ERA).
The one area for concern is the recent hitting woes. Last night, Los Angeles went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and haven't scored more than five runs in a game since Aug. 11 at home against the Rays, including two runs in each of their last two games.
We might be nitpicking a bit with the hitting, but this team has been so good in all facets over their incredible run, that pointing out any weakness with them is like finding gold.
Chris Capuano (4-6, 4.66 ERA) takes on Jacob Turner (3-4, 2.89 ERA) tonight. The big question is whether or not to ride the Dodgers losing streak or bet on them to snap the streak. Let's take a closer look at each of the pitchers before immediately making that trip to the bet ting window.
Los Angeles has never faced Turner, and just like last night, they’ll be facing another youngster who loves pitching at home. In his last eight home starts dating back to last season, Turner is 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA.
The Marlins had a five-game losing streak behind Turner before winning Wednesday at Kansas City, a game where Turner allowed only one earned run, but walked six with no strikeouts. However, it is impressive to note he recorded his last victory July 10 at home against the National League's other dominant team -- the Braves -- in a 6-2 win.
Despite not getting the wins to bolster his overall record, Turner still has been stingy. In his last seven starts, he's allowed two earned runs or less five times and four runs only once. Turner's main problem is he doesn't get any run support. Over the Marlins five game losing streak behind him, they were shutout twice and scored once in another. Basically, the Miami bats go cold when he takes the mound. However, over their past four games, while going 2-2, the Marlins averaged 6.5 runs per game with Giancarlo Stanton hitting two homers in two of the last three games.
That takes us to Capuano, who seems to get nothing but support from the bats in his lineup. Despite getting roughed up from 10 runs in 9.1 innings over his last two starts against the Mets and Rays -- allowing an obscene total of 20 hits over that span, the Dodgers bullpen closed the door and the bats came to the rescue. Capuano gives up 10, the Dodgers score 12, and the Dodgers win both games to make it six straight wins behind by the lefthander who turned 35 on Monday.
In three of Capuano’s previous four starts before getting roughed up, he completely dominated his opponents, allowing no runs. But in back-to-back starts on June 28-July 4, he looked like the same pitcher we've seen in his last two, getting beat up for 13 runs in eight combined innings of work in losses to Philadelphia and Colorado.
Capuano is a tough pitcher to figure out because when he’s good, he's very good and when he's bad, the flood gates open. In his last 10 starts overall, he’s allowed no runs in five of them. But in the other five he’s given up 28 combined runs.
If you've been betting against the Dodgers lately, you've been going broke, but this looks like a good spot to side with the young Marlins pitcher. The -150 price on Capuano is inflated by about 15 cents because of books trying to stay ahead of the curve with what the public will be betting. The books know everyone is going to bet the Dodgers, and as long as they keep winning, they might as well make the public pay a higher premium.
There's enough there to support the Marlins behind a good starter, their recent hitting surge, the Dodgers in a two-game funk, and best of all, the price is attractive.
Marlins (Turner) +140 vs. Dodgers
Pirates (Burnett) -117 at Padres
D-backs (Corbin) +136 at Reds
Second-half record: 57-50 (+980)