Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Pittsburgh at Washington
The Steelers look to bounce back from their 18-13 loss to the Giants in the preseason opener as they face the Redskins on Monday. Pittsburgh is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2)

Game 431-432: Pittsburgh at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 124.477; Washington 124.666
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2); Over

MLB

Tampa Bay at Baltimore
The Rays look to follow up yesterday's 2-1 win over Toronto and build on their 9-3 record in their last 12 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130)

Game 901-902: Colorado at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Manship) 15.117; Philadelphia (Martin) 14.248
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Over

Game 903-904: Arizona at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 15.533; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 17.132
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.919; Miami (Fernandez) 15.124
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Under

Game 907-908: Washington at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 13.593; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.483
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 16.623; Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.169
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Under

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.539; San Diego (Cashner) 15.489
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over

Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.069; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.716
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 915-916: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 15.155; Texas (Garza) 14.214
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-300); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+260); Over

Game 917-918: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Harang) 14.034; Oakland (Parker) 15.708
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-185); Under

Game 919-920: Cleveland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 15.276; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.028
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over

Game 921-922: NY Mets at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.434; Minnesota (Gibson) 14.483
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Over

Game 923-924: Boston at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.741; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.278
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Washington Nationals

When the Nats send Jordan Zimmerman up against Jeff Samadzija and the Cubs at Wrigley Field in the opener of this four-game series Monday evening, Washington will do so knowing Zimmerman is 14-3 at night and 3-0 against the NL Central in his team starts this season. On the other side of the coin, Samardzija is 0-3 in his team starts against the NL East this season. Back the better arm and the better team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Matt Fargo

Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Red Sox are coming off a series loss at home against the Yankees over the weekend and a series with their rival spells letdown. They have now dropped four of their last five games while going just 3-7 over their last 10 games and hit the road for a crucial six-game west coast trip. Additionally, Boston has lost five of its last seven road games and turns to Jon Lester to start a reversal of that. He is coming off two straight road starts, both of which were quality outings but the Red Sox dropped both of those as the offense managed only four runs total and overall, they have dropped his last three starts. His road ERA is a below average 4.48 to go along with a 1.38 WHIP and Boston is just 6-10 in his 16 highway starts. The Red Sox are 1-5 in his last six starts as a road favorite while the Giants are 10-3 in their last 13 Interleague home games against left-handed starters. San Francisco is coming off a 3-3 roadtrip but did manage to win three of its final four games. The Giants are a game over .500 at home and going back they are 27-11 in their last 38 Interleague home games. Tim Lincecum gets the nod tonight as he looks to bounce back from another poor road outing as he allowed six runs in six innings at Washington. Five of his last seven starts have been quality outings though and he has followed up his last two non-quality starts with a quality outing next time out. Additionally, four of his last five home starts have resulted in quality performances including two straight where he has allowed three runs over 15 innings.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -140

The Cardinals lineup is built to face a right-handed pitcher. They have a .280 batting average against right-handers this season and they are scoring 5.2 runs per game. They are facing a Brewers offense that has been horrible in division games, batting .247 and scoring a mere 3.7 runs per game.

St Louis will also have a big advantage at the starting pitcher position. Shelby Miller has a 2.97 ERA this season and he has 137 strikeouts in 127.4 innings pitched. Marco Estrada will get the start for the Brewers today, and he has a 7.72 ERA at home. In six home starts Estrada has given up 10 home runs, a number that you don't want to see before facing a team like St Louis.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs    
Play: Washington Nationals

Washington is 8-0 this season as a road favorite off a road dog loss and they fit one of our league Wide Power systems that has won 21 of 29 times and plays on road favorites that are off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs and are taking on an opponent like the Cubs that are off a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs. The Cubs are 4-12 this month and are scoring just 2.6 runs on .206 hitting the past week. The Nationals have won 25 of 34 long term as a road favorite in this range and have a pitching advantage with J. Zimmerman whi has a 3.39 road era and 1.59 era in his last 3 starts, over Cubs starter J. Samardzija who has struggled going 4-9 at home and has a 9.39 era in his last 3 starts. Look for the Nationals to win the opener.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Jeffrey Brandes

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins    
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Ryu has won each of his last five starts, posting a 2.27 ERA in that span while walking just four over 31 2/3 innings. In a May 11 start vs. the Marlins at Dodger Stadium, Ryu allowed only five hits and one run in 6 2/3 innings.

Fernandez has a 1.65 ERA who has held opponents to a .167 average since June 1, both marks best in the Majors over that stretch. Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, 21, will try to slow the Dodgers' historic run and keep them from picking up their 11th victory in 12 games. It's a Dodgers lineup that looks like an entirely different beast today than it did May 10, when Fernandez allowed three runs over six innings and struck out seven.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Art Aronson

Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Under 7½

David Price (6-5, 3.28 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Price is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs over seven innings, settling for his third no-decision in a row vs. the Mariners on Wednesday. He gave up five hits but did strike out seven. For the most part though Price has been as solid as you could hope for and has pitched at least seven frames in each of his nine starts since returning from the DL. Price brings his extremely respectable 5-1, 2.71 ERA road record into Baltimore to throw opposite Chris Tillman (14-3, 3.70 ERA) who was unfortunate to get saddled with a no-decision after he gave up two runs on five hits with three walks over six frames vs. the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Despite the result, note that Tillman has not lost a start since July 6th, having won eight of his last 11 outings. Tillman will look to get off the schneid and improve upon his sparkling 7-2 home record tonight. Three of these teams last five in their season series have gone "under" the posted number and with these two quality hurlers going head to head on Monday night, the "under" definitely becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Mike Williams

St. Louis Cardinals -135

The Cardinals find themselves only one game back of the Pittsburgh Pirates for first place in the NL Central division. The Cards want badly to get back in first place of division and overtake the Pirates. The Cards will be highly motivated Monday night to get a victory over a division foe in the Milwaukee Brewers.

Shelby Miller takes the hill for the Cards Monday night. Cardinals are 4-0 in Miller's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 in Miller's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Marco Estrada makes the start for Milwaukee. Estrada has been awful in his home starts this season going 2-2 with a 7.71 ERA.

Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Cardinals are 27-11 in the last 38 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee. St. Louis gets it done in Milwaukee take the Cards.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Jesse Schule

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

As well as the Marlins have played at times recently, they still have the fewest wins in the National League. The Dodgers on the other hand have won 42 of their last 50. The hottest team in baseball will be in Miami on Monday, and the Marlins send their 21 year old ace Jose Fernandez to the mound. Fernandez (8-5, 2.45 ERA) tossed seven scoreless innings allowing just three hits in a 1-0 win at Kansas City in his last start. Prior to that he allowed a pair of runs on five hits over five innings in a no decision in a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh. He's pitched well, but Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig have faced aces this year, and it has made little difference. The Dodgers send southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound, and he's been every bit as impressive as Fernandez this season. Ryu (12-3, 2.91 ERA) allowed a single run on five hits over seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Mets his last time out. The Dodgers are 9-0 in his last nine starts. The Marlins rank last in baseball in a lot of categories, including runs scored and team batting average. They also hold the distinction of having the worst numbers versus left-handed pitching. All things considered, it seems rather ludicrous that this game is close to a pickem.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Colorado has been a bad road team and doesn't have enough pitching, plus the Rockies are 25-53 in their last 78 road games. Rockies starting pitcher Jeff Manship (0-2) is off another bad game, charged with six runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings of a 7-5 defeat. Manship has a 7.20 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP through his first two starts (10 innings). Rockies are 25-60 in their last 85 road games vs. a right-handed starter and they face righty Ethan Martin, a good strikeout pitcher with 16 Ks in 14 innings. Colorado has never faced him before. Philadelphia had the managerial change late last week, which can bring extra motivation to a team having a tough season, so grab home field.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Ken Thomson

Miami Marlins +117

Jose Fernandez has been lights out at home sporting a ( 5-0 ) record.  The Marlins come off a 6-5 come from behind win over the SF Giants on Sunday.  Meanwhile the Dodgers had a 10-game win streak snapped as Hanley Ramirez booted a potential inning ending double play that would have kept the game rolling along.  Most times when teams have a long winning streak broken they have a let down and drop a second straight contest.  This is a good spot for the Fish and I'll take the ( +117 ).  Ryu has been solid for the Dodgers and it's tough to go against a team that is ( 42-9 ) in their last 51 games but I'll stay with the letdown theory.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Will Rogers

Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

Both teams come into Monday having taken two of three games in their previous series.  In the case of Seattle, it was another AL West rival, the Texas Rangers.  That in turn helped Oakland, who took two of three from Cleveland, pull within a half game of the division lead.  I'll take the A's in tonight's opener.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Favored For a Reason - We all know Oakland is the better team here, but when they're favored, you can pretty much book a win.  That's because they own a 52-29 record in the chalk role this season and going back to last year they are now 61-29 when favored at home.

2.  Aaron Harang - The Seattle starter comes in with a 12.75 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last three starts. After allowing seven runs in back to back starts, he gave up three runs in five innings of a loss to Tampa Bay.  Including that loss, Harang now owns a 1-7 TSR on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA.

3. X-Factor - A's starter Jarrod Parker is coming off the longest outing of his career as he allowed just one run in 8 1/3 innings last Wednesday. He's given up two earned runs or less in 12 of his last 16 starts, going 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA during that time.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Bryan Power

St. Louis vs. Milwaukee
Pick: St. Louis

It's hard not to prefer the Cards over the Brew Crew Monday night w/ Shelby Miller on the hill.  St. Louis still has the best run differential in the National League at +140.  They have gone 8-2 vs. Milwaukee in 2013 including a four-game sweep here at Miller Park earlier this season.  Miller is 2-0 vs. the Brewers....

In those two starts, Miller has allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings. One was seven innings of shutout ball where he allowed just one hit. Here in Milwaukee, he allowed just one run in six innings.  He has 13 K's versus just one walk.  Miller comes in w/ a 2.97 ERA in his 23 starts this season.

The Brewers were blown out 9-1 at home by Cincinnati Sunday while the Cardinals rolled the Cubs 6-1.  But the really bad news for Milwaukee is that Marco Estrada has a 7.72 ERA at home this season and has not pitched well against St. Louis, posting a 9.00 ERA in three starts. St. Louis is 58-33 vs. righties this year.  I see the road team coming in and winning easily here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Rocketman

Washington at Chicago Cubs
Play: Washington -140

The Washington Nationals travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs on Monday night. Washington is 25-9 last 3 years as a road favorite of -125 to -150. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last 7 games overall. Washington is allowing only 3.3 runs per game their past seven games overall holding opponents to a combined team batting average of only .225. Jordan Zimmerman starts tonight for Washington where he is 14-6 with a 3.02 ERA overall this year, 4-4 with a 3.39 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeff Samardzija starts for the Cubs where he is 6-11 with a 4.29 ERA overall this year, 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA at home this season and 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Alex Smart

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays   

Dave Price Tamps Bays ace and starter today vs the Orioles is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings over nine starts since he was sidelined by a left triceps strain.The reigning Cy Young Award winner has only walked three of the 258 batters he's faced during that span. He also leads the AL in walks per nine innings (1.21) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.88). The dominant hurler is 6-2 in 14 career starts versus Baltimore with a 2.60 ERA and is also undefeated (3-0, 3.20 ERA) in seven starts at Camden Yards. Meanwhile, the ace of the Orioles pitching staff Chris Tilman will take to the hill to battle the Rays. He has pitched well this season, but is over rated because in my humble opionion, because of very average walk and home run ratios . He has also problems had with problems with TB. Two of Tillman’s three losses this season have come against the Rays. It must be noted that the Rays scored 42 runs combined to defeat the Orioles five of the last six meetings between these two teams. Im betting Tampa Bay once again find a way into the win column in this spot, Rays are 5-1 in Prices last 6 starts.Rays are 41-19 in Prices last 60 road starts.Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Doug Upstone

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles    
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

For Monday, Play Against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Baltimore, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent (Chris Tillman - 14-3), against AL opponent with a starting pitcher (David Price - 6-5, 1.045 WHIP)whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season. Since 2009, this baseball system is 52-11, 82.5 percent and is a perfect 10-0 this year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Angels -125

Both the Angels and Indians aren't playing very good baseball right now. Each is just 4-9 over their last 13 games overall. However, there is a lot of value here on the Angels at home with their ace Jered Weaver on the mound. While Weaver is coming off a poor start at New York, he's been lights out at home this season, going 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.083 WHIP over 9 starts. You have to like his chances of following that trend given he's 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA over 15 career starts vs the Indians. Cleveland will counter with Danny Salazar, who will be making just his fourth career start. Salazar is 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA overall and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his only start on the road. Weaver is a dominant 31-11 over his last 42 starts in the second half of the season, 20-4 over his last 24 at home and 29-9 over his last 38 as a favorite of -110 or higher.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh Pirates -137

The San Diego Padres may be feeling good about besting the Mets yesterday, and getting on a small run, but they got little done against the Mets ace Matt Harvey. Now just their luck they have another ace coming to town in the form of Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano...and this one is actually backed by a first place lineup of real hitters. That is just too much for starter Andrew Cashner and Co. to overcome even in the wide expanse that is PetCo Park. Pittsburgh at -137 is fantastic value given the mound matchup and that Pittsburgh can ill afford to take a series off with St. Louis on their heels.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Jeff Benton

Monday's freebie is the Rays over the O's in their big series opener tonight at Camden Yards.

Both teams battling for a playoff ticket this October, and while both may make it, my money tonight will be on the visitors behind David Price.

Tampa has followed a season-high 6 game slide with wins in 4 of their last 5.

The Rays have taken 6 of the past 8 series meetings in this rivalry, and starter David Price is on a 5-1 roll since early July with a slender 1.77 ERA. Price is also a dominant 6-2 for his career against the O's, sporting a tough 3.20 in his 14 career starts versus Baltimore.

The Orioles will counter with their "ace" Chris Tillman who does own a 14-3 mark this season. Problem is, 2 of Tillman's 3 losses this year have come at the hands of the Rays, as Tillman is just 2-5 with a 4.77 ERA in his 10 starts against Tampa Bay.

Siding with Tampa in this one.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Brad Wilton

Monday's comp play is the Giants as the small home underdog against the Red Sox.

San Francisco lost a one run decision yesterday afternoon in Miami to snap their modest 3 game winning streak, but the situation looks right for them to pick up another win, as they are back home for this interleague battle and do catch Boston fresh off a 4-plus hour late night marathon at home against the Yankees last night.

What time do you think the Red Sox touched down on the west coast last night?

One would have to believe that the BoSox will be a little "fatigued" when they step on the diamond tonight. Boston dropped 2 of 3 to the Yankees, and have now lost 7 of their last 10 overall.

Red Sox starter Jon Lester is winless over his last 3 starts with a 4.58 ERA to go along with his 0-1 mark - Boston losing ALL 3 of those starts! The Sox in fact have dropped 8 of Lester's last 10 road starts coming into this game tonight.

Tim Lincecum counters and is off a rough outing at Washington his last trip to the bump, but was stellar in his 3 previous efforts with just 3 runs allowed in 22 innings worked.

Go with the Giants to take the series opener against a dog-tired Boston bunch here on Monday night.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO

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