Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Betting Resource - Free Pick

08/16/13        

LA Dodgers/Philadelphia    

Pick Philadelphia  -102

Record 20-9-0  (69 %)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee BrewersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will upset the Reds tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-33 mark for 68% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) off a one run loss to a division rival and starting a rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. The Reds are coming off a low scoring 2-1 win over the Brewers in the first game of this four game set. Reds are just 4-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less this season. Milwaukee is a solid 16-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons. Take the Brewers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both team's struggles have tightened things up in the American League Wild Card race. Oakland is returning home and hoping to rekindle the kind of play that gives them one of the best home records in the Majors. It should be a solid pitching matchup and you can get good value on the home side because Cleveland has its ace Justin Masterson on the hill. Oakland grabs the victory, perhaps proving that it is a little bit further along in its development than Cleveland in the process. Take confidence from A.J. Griffin's home heavy splits and ability to not give up too many free passes.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. BaltimoreFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies and Orioles last met June 8-10, 2007 at Camden Yards. The Orioles are returning from an eight-game West Coast swing which began well at 4-1 but ended with Baltimore losing all three games in Arizona on the Diamondbacks' final at-bat. Closer Jim Johnson blew the save in each of the last two. The Rockies have outscored their opponents by 24 runs in a recent 5-1 surge but are long shots to make any 'noise' down the stretch in the NL. Meanwhile, the Orioles are just three games out of a wild card spot in the AL (are 5 1/2 games back of the 1st-place Red Sox in the AL East).
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Colorado opens a 10-game road trip with this three-game set in Baltimore and here's an 'ugly' stat; Colorado is a WOEFUL 1-8 in the first game of a road trip in 2013. Maybe I don't need to say anything more, but I will. Juan Nicasio (6-6, 5.04 ERA) gets the nod for Colorado, squaring off against Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen (6-5, 3.06 ERA).
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Nicasio enters this game 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 22 starts. His season remains an inconsistent one. After going 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his first three starts upon being recalled from Triple-A on July 12, he went 0-2 with a 9.64 mark in his next three. He's allowed 76 hits in just 59.2 innings on the road this year (owns a poor 35-24 KW ratio), while posting a 6.03 ERA in 12 road starts.
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In contrast, Chen has thrived at home, posting a 3-1 record and a 2.67 ERA in his five starts at Camden Yards (Baltimore is 4-1). He's made just 14 starts in 2013 but has recorded SIX straight quality starts since coming off the disabled list back on July 10.
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Colorado's last road trip ended with just one win in 10 tries and I'm not sure this one will work out any better. First things first.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's -127FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oakland A's are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Cleveland Indians tonight. Oakland has gone 36-22 at home this season, while Cleveland is just 27-31 on the road.
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A.J. Griffin is one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 11 home starts.
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Justin Masterson is 5-5 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 road starts for Cleveland, including 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in his last three starts. Masterson has never been able to figure out Oakland, going 2-5 with a 9.08 ERA and 1.878 WHIP in seven career starts against the A's.
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The Indians are 23-48 in their last 71 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 4-14 in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 0-5 in Masterson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 73-33 in their last 106 games as a favorite. Oakland is 16-4 in Griffin's last 20 home starts. Bet the A's Friday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Rocketman

Minnesota @ Buffalo
Play: Minnesota +3.5

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Friday night.  Minnesota is 9-2 ATS since 1993 in the NFL preseason as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points.  Minnesota is 10-3 ATS since 1993 in the NFL Preseason as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points.  Buffalo is off a 44-20 blowout win this past week over Indianapolis while Minnesota struggled losing 27-13 to Houston in Week One.  We should see Minnesota being a little more focused here tonight.  One system says to play AGAINST any home favorite of more than 3 points off a SU and ATS win vs an opponent off a SU loss.  This system is 27-7 79.5% since 1983.  Buffalo is 13-22 ATS last 35 games as a favorite in the preseason.  Buffalo is 0-6 ATS as favorite off a double digit SU win.  Buffalo is 2-8 ATS last 10 home games in preseason vs opponent off a double digit SU loss.  Buffalo is 4-12 SU their last 16 preseason games.  Minnesota is 6-1 ATS last 7 years in Game Two of the preseason.  We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

KANSAS CITY -2 over San Francisco: Both teams are off losses last week, but the Niners can afford to do that in the preseason as they know what they already have on their team, but the Chiefs and Andy Ried will be looking to get some wins in the preseason as to give his team some confidence. Also look for a nice game out of Alex Smith, who played for San Fran last year, before an injury gave the ball over to Colin and Smith never got his job back. Smith and the first team offense did travel 80 yards on 14 plays for a TD vs the Saints last week. The Chiefs defense was also tough, holding the Saint first team offense to just 16 total yards. I know you should buck some long standing trends, but i will do so in this one as the Chiefs are 0-10 ATS the last 10 years during week 2 of the preseason. I feel that some trends must come to an end eventually and this will be one of them. Andy Ried and Alex Smith for that matter, need his game more than the Niners do and they should take it by at least 6 points. 

2 UNIT PLAY

NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Oakland: The Saints didn't really play all that well in their opening game vs the Chiefs, but I look for a more focused effort in this one. Brees and the offensive starters will play a bit more in this one and will put up plenty of points. Oakland will not have enough offense to keep this one close. Look for an easy win for the Saints in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Minnesota/ Buffalo Over 42.5: I don't expect Buffalo to go crazy like last week, but Kolb will be starting this one and I expect him to have a good showing, while EJ Manuel will look to prove what he did last week was no fluke. The Buffalo defense did a good job last week, but still allowed 20 points. Minnesota's offense isn't great, but they probably won't be playing much of AP and would like to work on their passing game. I can see allot of balls in the air in this one as the game flies over the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

Greg Shaker

Batimore Orioles -1.5 +110

I'm never too proud to play a team their first game back after a long roadtrip but I can be OK with it when they have a day off to unpack. That's what Baltimore got to do yesterday. A number of factors lend itself to a play on the -1.5 and not the least of which is the fact that the Lefty going for the O's tonight has had strong results here pitching at The Yard. He will be pitching at the Rockies weakest link, hitting Southpaws on the Highway as this team is managing just a .230 BA and a meager 2.5 Runs per 9 in this situation. The Orioles meanwhile will be batting from their power spot verses the Righty averaging 5.5 Per 9 while eating Crab Cakes. Since coming off the DL Chen has 6 quality starts in a row. Not the case for the Rocky Hurler with an ERA at a Horrific 9.64 over his last 3. We must also note that in 12 road ventures, this guy has an ERA Over 6. He has been terribly inconsistent in the process and it is no wonder why games he has thrown in have played to the OVER at 14-7 this year. He is having control issues in a Big Way with 23, 24, and 18 Pitches Per Inning Over this 3 game span. Working behind the count is not a good thing when throwing at the Best HR Hitting Team in the World here at this venue. O's Pen work has been OK here and Colorado's Pen work not so OK in this situation. Colorado has always been strong at Coors, but once again this year they have struggled when they travel possessing a 21-38 Mark. These are reasons why I will lay the runs for a Reverse Dog Opportunity.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

SPORTS WAGERS

Sergey Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +138 over Nathan Cleverly

This is a significant light heavyweight fight with Nathan Cleverly’s WBO strap on the line. The odds are about even money on this fight which shows many may not have a firm take on how this fight may play out. Cleverly is certainly not an easy opponent to fight. He’s tall and rangy with fast hands. He has a very high work rate and an excellent engine, he can box if he chooses to or force the fight with quick hands and great conditioning and no one has beaten him yet. Cleverly is talking about making this fight like the Calzaghe vs. Lacy fight where Calzaghe, as an underdog, out-boxed and undressed Lacy seemingly ruining him forever. Cleverly is right to want to box with Kovalev but he’s making a big mistake in equating Kovalev to Lacy. Kovalev has only fought eight rounds once and Cleverly is tremendously well conditioned so he’ll will want to survive early and hope to drown Kovalev late in the fight. It’s a reasonable plan and we really don’t know Kovalev’s conditioning in a war of attrition.

Sergey Kovalev is a straight out destroyer. He’s also tall, although he’s a bit shorter than Cleverly and perhaps not as wide in the shoulders, but he brings genuine mind numbing power into his fights. Everything can be improved as a fighter but real punchers are born that way. Kovalev is blessed with tremendous leverage on shots that seem to bother guys even if blocked on the gloves. Cleverly has enough diversity to beat a one dimensional fighter with power but Kovalev brings more than that. He has a straight, fast, long and hard jab that gets him into punching range. He doesn’t get off balance and has a way of touching opponents right from the opening bell. He was able to break down slick technician and former champ Gabriel Campillo in three rounds and has stopped 9 straight fighters

Cleverly will run into problems in this fight and here’s why: while Cleverly has speed and skills, he often fights with his opponents. It has worked out because he had the edge in speed and conditioning and wasn’t too worried about return fire. That’s a big problem here because Sergey Kovalev is a banger, he is a boxer too and sets things up by boxing smartly. Kovalev he has ability and speed in his own right to get there. Cleverly isn’t likely to walk a 12 round tightrope and steal a decision. It isn’t the way he fights and Kovalev will not allow that. Kovalev will look to walk down the moving Cleverly with patience but bad intentions. There will be times when the fighters are involved in heated exchanges and both will land but Cleverly isn’t a huge hitter while Kovalev throws bricks. At some point they will mix and Kovalev will hurt Cleverly and end maters soon thereafter. This fight is not going the distance if Kovalev wins and it’s for that reason we’ll play the him by KO, TKO or DQ.

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