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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 12

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 12

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

San Diego at Colorado
The Padres look to bounce back from yesterday's 3-2 loss to Cincinnati and build on their 9-1 record in their last 10 games after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. San Diego is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.139; Atlanta (Teheran) 17.066
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-170); Under

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 13.970; Cubs (Wood) 15.057
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); N/A

Game 955-956: San Diego at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 14.671; Colorado (Chacin) 13.526
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over

Game 957-958: NY Mets at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 15.797; LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 17.338
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Under

Game 959-960: Oakland at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 15.278; Toronto (Happ) 14.173
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Under

Game 961-962: Texas at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.993; Houston (Oberholtzer) 13.827
Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-220); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-220); Over

Game 963-964: LA Angels at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 15.019; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.415
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 965-966: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.557; White Sox (Sale) 16.010
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Under

Game 967-968: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 14.388; Minnesota (Albers) 15.712
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under

Game 969-970: Miami at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.067; Kansas City (Davis) 16.467
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-180); Over

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Feldman) 14.996; Arizona (Miley) 16.259
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Under

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Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

When the Reds send Mat Latos to the mound against Travis Wood in the opener of this three-game NL Central division series, Cincinnati will do so knowing Latos is 4-1 in his last five team starts in this series, and 4-1 his last five team starts during August. On the flip side, Wood enters 0-5 in his MLB career team starts against the Reds, and 1-7 his last eight team starts during August. With that, look for the Reds to improve to 4-0 this season in games against left-handers behind Latos here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

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Freddy Wills

New York Yankees -150

It's hard to fade Hiroki Kuroda right now as he continues to dominate posting a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts, but what is even more amazing is what he's been able to accomplish at home this season posting a 1.74 ERA. Kuroda is on 5 days rest on Monday where he has pitched a quality start in every start this year while posting an ERA under 1.50 over 11 starts. Kuroda has pitched well this late in a season two posting a 2.66 ERA over the last three years in August. He will face an Angels team that has been inconsistent all year long and he has good numbers against them.

Garret Richards will make the start for the Angels and he's been in and out of the bullpen all year. He basically has two pitches a fast ball and a slider and you'd think the Yankees would be able to hit him on Monday. Granderson and Cano are 4-6 against Richards with 2 HR while Richards has had major control issues over his career as well as poor stats on the road. Yankees won on Sunday and I sense a little role coming for them.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Wade Miley (3-0, 21 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 0.86 ERA)
Wade Davis (1-2, 15 IP, 1.67 WHIP, 2.40 ERA)
Yu Darvish (2-01, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Garret Richards (1-2, 18 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.50 ERA)
Cole Hamels (0-3, 22 IP , 1.05 WHIP, 1.64 ERA)
Julio Teheran (3-0, 18 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 1.00 ERA)
Mat Latos 2-1, 21 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Jhoulis Chacin (2-1, 22 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Doug Fister (3-0, 22 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 1.23 ERA)
Jenrry Mejia (2-1, 18.1 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Dan Straily (0-3, 1.85 WHIP, 6.23 ERA)
J.A. Happ (1-2, 2.89 WHIP, 12.00 ERA)

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Art Aronson

Marlins vs. Royals
Play: Over 8½

Tom Koehler (3-7, 4.40 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Koehler gave up three runs off four hits with one walk over five innings in a 4-2 loss to the Pirates on Wednesday. Koehler brings his pedestrian 2-3, 3.98 ERA road record into Kansas City to throw opposite Wade Davis (5-9, 5.42 ERA) who has looked decent of late, giving up just two runs over his last two combined starts. Davis has in fact looked brilliant at time this year and also very ordinary in others; note though that he's a brutal 1-5, with a 4.55 ERA record in friendly confines this season. Whenever two suspect hurlers face off against each other, the "over" is always a viable invest option.

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Jim Feist

Detroit at Chicago
Pick: Under

With these two ace pitchers runs will be difficult to come by. Last place Chicago is terrible on offense, 29th in baseball in runs scored, 26th in slugging and 28th in on base percentage. They will find the going tough against Detroit righty Doug Fister (10-5, 3.50 ERA), who is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA his last three starts. He's recorded five consecutive quality starts and is 4-0 over that stretch. Strong finishes are nothing new for Fister, who went 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA in the second half in 2011 and 8-4 with a 2.67 ERA in the second half last season. The under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 on grass. At least the White Sox have their ace going in Chris Sale (7-11, 2.77 ERA), who has been so good on a bad team. The under is 5-1 in White Sox last six games against a right-handed starter. Look for few walks, a lot of strikeouts and few runners crossing the plate.

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Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -120

Detroit is an easy call in this game as they outmatch the White Sox from every angle. Chris Sale has put up some respectable numbers this year, but he is still 7-11 this season in 21 starts. Doug Fister has a 10-5 record and he has posted a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers are 3-0 in those games.

Detroit is batting .293 as a team over their past seven games and they have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game during that span. They face a White Sox team that is batting .242 at home and scoring a mere 3.8 runs per game. Chicago's scoring average drops to 3.6 runs per game when playing in division games. This game may be close early, but Detroit should have no problem pulling away as Sale's pitch count increases.

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Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers -1½ -125

Texas fits a solid 90% system here today that plays on road favorites of -140 or higher that are off a road win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home loss by 5 or more runs that had 4 or less hits. These road teams are winning by an average 3 runs per game. So we will use the run line here tonight. We wont bore you with 2 dozen bad angles on Houston. We all know they are inept and have lost 9 of 10. Texas has been hot winning 12 of 13 and scoring over 5 runs per game vs Leftys. They have Yu Darvish going and he has a solid 2.82 road era. Texas will take on Houston lefty Oberholtzer who has shined in his first 2 starts not allowing a run in 14 innings. This will be a tough spot though as Texas is coasting right now. Look for Texas to take the finale.

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Bruce Marshall

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Although the Indians rallied for a 6-5 win over the Angels on Sunday, maybe it is best for the Tribe to get out on the road after losing 6 of 7 on their just-completed homestand. On the other hand, maybe Cleveland is slumping, in which case it might not be the best idea to run into Twins rookie starter Andrew Albers, who came within two outs of recording a shutout and gave up four hits in a 7-0 victory at Kansas City in his MLB debut last Tuesday. The Indians have had enough trouble lately at Target Field, where they have lost 8 of their last 10 and batted just .181 in the process. Ascending Minnesota has also caught a bit of an updraft the past week and a half, winning 7 of its last 10 games.

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Jesse Schule

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Jays found a way to lose yesterday despite a solid performance from R.A. Dickey. A.J. Griffin got away with allowing five hits and six walks over 5 2/3 innings, as Toronto was unable to capitalize with runners in scoring position. The series finale will feature J.A. Happ versus Dan Straily in another matinee game at Rogers Center. Happ (2-2, 5.84 ERA) will make just his second start since coming off the DL with a fractured skull after taking a line drive to the head in Tampa. He was rocked for seven runs on seven hits over just four innings in a loss to the Mariners in his first game back. He wasn't looking good before he sustained the injury, and it appears that nothing has changed as he continues to struggle. The A's hand the ball to 24 year old Dan Straily, and he hasn't exactly been shutting down opponents either. Straily (6-6, 4.41 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over four innings in a 3-1 loss to Cincy his last time out. One thing that jumps out about Straily though, is that his best numbers have come in day games, with a record of 2-1, 2.83 in five starts in the afternoon. Josh Reddick is 6-for-12 with five home runs in the series, and he might be in for another big day versus Happ. The A's should have the advantage here in Toronto against a Jays team that makes more than it's share of mistakes.

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Bryan Leonard

Arizona Diamondbacks -117

Wade Miley looks to continue his success, while Scott Feldman looks to try and bounce back for Baltimore. Miley has been outstanding since a rocky month of May. In 12 starts since the calendar flipped to June, Miley has posted a 6-3 record with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In four starts since the All-Star Break, he has been tremendous with a 1.44 ERA and a .180 batting average against. The Orioles have never faced Miley, so he will be an unfamiliar lefty for them as they open up the final series of a west coast interleague trip. One of Miley's problems tends to be the walk, but the Orioles draw the fewest walks of any team in baseball against left handed pitching.

While Miley has been steady for the D-Backs since June, Feldman has been anything but for the Cubs and now the Orioles. Over his last 11 starts, Feldman has posted a 4-5 record with an ugly 5.26 ERA. Feldman's problem appears to be his mechanics when pitching from the stretch. With the bases empty, the opposition is batting just .237, with a .280 OBP, and Feldman has a 3.25 K/BB ratio. With men on base, the opposition batting average goes up slightly to .241, but his on-base percentage against jumps 50 points to .330. With runners in scoring position, his K/BB ratio is just 1.6, with a .256/.364/.440 slash line against.

With Feldman struggling, baserunners are inevitable and the Diamondbacks should be in a good position to cash in on those opportunities.

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Will Rogers

Mets vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are an unstoppable force right now, one that I've ridden to victory each of the last two days. They have won 37 of their last 45 games overall after sweeping the Rays this weekend and things are really looking up for them now in the NL West.  I don't see the Mets being a problem Monday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Red Hot Dodgers - Right now, there is simply no team in baseball playing better than the Dodgers.  They have won five straight, 10 of 11, 20 of 24 and 37 of 45.  They are just playing at a different level right now.  Even though the Mets were able to take two of three in Arizona this weekend, they are still well below .500

2.  Ricky Nolasco - The Dodgers starter has a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP his last three starts, all Dodgers wins, despite all three of those starts coming on the road.  He has a 6-1 TSR his last seven starts overall.

3.  X-Factor - The Mets are only 32-45 vs. righties this year.

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Bryan Power

Cincinnati vs. Chicago
Pick:Cincinnati

The Cubs haven't had much luck in division games this season and facing Mat Latos and Cincinnati Monday isn't likely to change that.  The NL Central, which features three likely playoff teams, isn't a kind draw to the Cubs and the Reds have definitely taken advantage by going 10-3 against their division rivals this season

The Reds are also 6-1 here at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.  They come off a successful weekend series at home vs. San Diego, taking two of three games.  Meanwhile, the Cubs almost swept St. Louis, but lost Sunday 8-4.  It was still their 10th loss in 14 games. Overall, the Cubs are averaging just 3.2 runs per game in division contests this year while batting a collective .220.

I really like the Reds' chances w/ Latos on the hill.  He has a 1.29 ERA and 1.143 WHIP his last three starts. Last time out, he threw seven-plus scoreless innings against Oakland, a game Cincy would win 3-1. Overall, he's gone 11-3 in 23 starts.  He has an 18-4 team start record when working on five or six days rest.  Meanwhile, Cubs starter Travis Wood has a career 0-5 TSR vs. the Reds, including 0-3 this year alone.

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Ray Monohan

Cleveland -110

Indians rookies Danny Salazar is off to a pretty good start to his career. He has faced the Tigers and the Blue Jays, two very good hitting clubs and come away with a 1-1 record with 17Ks in 13 innings. Tonight he will be making his first road start at Minnesota.

The Twins have been playing well while Cleveland has been struggling but the Indians are the better team. Cleveland stopped a losing streak yesterday and has a great chance to get a winning run going today at Minnesota.

Could be a pitching duel for the future with the Twins handing the ball to Andrew Albers, who is making just his second start and was very sharp in his debut.

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Alex Smart

Detroit Tigers -115

After dropping a heart breaking 5-4 decision to the Yankees yesterday the explosive Detroit Tigers will not be in a good mood this Monday, and will look to take out their frustrations out a the White Sox side that has lost 17 of their L/21 overall. It must be noted that the Tigers are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss and are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fister the Tigers starter today has given up just six earned runs in his last five trips to the hill. He is currently in top form and won 8 straight decisions. Tigers are 5-0 in Fisters last 5 starts as a favorite. Meanwhile the White Sox are 7-20 in their last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Sale the Pale Hose starting hurler this Monday ended a three-game losing run  by allowing one run on five hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 3-2 win over the Yankees on Tuesday. However, it must be noted that the White Sox are 1-8 in Sales last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Tigers are 38-14 in the last 52 meetings including 5-2 L/7 in Chitown!
Tigers are 32-13 in their last 45 during game 1 of a series.
Pale Hose are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.

The Tigers rank second in the AL in runs scored (598) this season. The White Sox (425) rank last.

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Steve Janus

Colorado Rockies -1.5 +121

The Rockies come in fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Pirates at home and I look for them to carry over that momentum against a slumping San Diego team. The Padres have lost 4 of 5 and are a miserable 15-gmes under .500 on the road this season. Colorado is 10-3 vs the Padres this season.

I don't play any money lines greater than -150, which is why I'm taking my chances on the Rockies run line tonight. Colorado should have no trouble winning this game by 2+ runs with the edge they have on the mound. The Rockies will send out a red-hot Jhoulys Chacin, who has a strong 2.45 ERA and 1.045 WHIP over his last three starts and 2.81 ERA over 8 career starts vs the Padres.

San Diego will count with Edinson Volquez, who has a miserable 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP over 12 road starts this season. The real key here is Volquez has been absolutely awful against Colorado over his career. He has 7.00 ERA and 1.945 WHIP in 11 starts. In each of his last five outings vs the Rockies he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. In his most recent outing at Coors Field he was torched for 9 runs on 11 hits in just 2 and 1/3 innings of work.

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SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. Angels +145 over N.Y. YANKEES

There’s been a MASH unit in the Bronx this summer, as the Yankees suffer a never-ending string of injuries. Rotation stalwart Hiroki Kuroda, who’s battling for the AL lead in ERA for starters, had some hip issues in July but didn’t miss significant time. Several things are contributing to Kuroda’s solid year. As in 2011/2012, strand % is high. Combine that with a low hit% and it’s not surprising he’s outperforming his xERA by over a run.  There’s some ERA correction coming, which is not to say that Kuroda doesn’t have solid skills. While he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, he’s stingy with the free passes, leading to consistently elite command. He’s dominating righties to a much greater extent than usual, limiting them to a .207/.231/.303 line this year. Kuroda is 38 and there are no signs of an impending skills drop-off. However, he’s not THIS good and he’s not going to maintain such a low ERA for the rest of the season. Besides, we’re not asking the Halos to put up anything crooked here. Three or four runs could certainly get us to the cashier’s window and that makes the Halos a terrific value play.

The tag on the Yankees here is bordering on ludicrous. Yeah, the Yanks took two of three over the powerful Tigers but baseball is a season with ups and downs and the Tigers had a tough weekend. Big deal. What we know for sure is that Angels are going to come in here all jacked up for this series and they’ll send out a pitcher that is on the verge of a big breakout. Garrett Richards has shown flashes in 2013 of being elite. His overall skills recently have been outstanding with 21 K’s, a 58% groundball rate and just six walks over his past 25 innings. A refined pitch mix deserves some credit for his growth: +9% four-seam fastballs, -16% two-seam fastballs, +10% cutters, -7% change-ups. Batters have produced a low .108 Isolated Power (ISO: SLG% minus BA) against his 96 mph four-seam fastball and his slider has turned into a dominant pitch. Batters have a .156 BA and .222 SLG % against that pitch. Richards is high on our radar. He pitches for perhaps the best 53-63 team in the history of this game and absolutely has a great chance to thrive here.


CHICAGO +139 over Cincinnati

Last season, Mat Latos showed the talent to overshadow any negative effects in going from Petco Park to Great American Ballpark. For the first 18 starts of this season it was more of the same but over Latos’ last five starts we’re starting to see some danger signs. Prior to his July 11 start against the Braves, Latos' overall groundball rate was on the climb and his walks were decreasing (earlier this season, Latos went a stretch of five straight starts with less than 2 BB). However, over his last five starts covering just 26 innings, Latos has walked 10 batters and his groundball rate got worse. Latos did post a 1.73 ERA over that span but was greatly aided by a 90% strand rate. His xERA over his last five starts is 4.77. Don’t get us wrong. Latos is a valuable commodity in any park but we’re seeing signs of fatigue. He’s pitched close to 600 innings over the past three seasons and he’s up to 146 this season. Latos has had three short outings (5 innings or less) in three of his past nine starts and the last time he pitched at this park back in mid-June, he was rocked for eight hits and four runs in six frames. That’s when he was sharper than he is right now. The Reds have also dropped four of Latos’ past six road starts.

Travis Wood is not going to dazzle but what he is going to do is give the Cubbies a chance to win almost every time he takes the hill. This kid just keeps getting better. Wood is relentless with his nasty cutter that he keeps pounding down and in and he’ll throw it even when he’s down in the count 3-1 or 2-0. Wood can get into jams by walking too many people (50 walks in 104 frames) but his 3.04 ERA with that many walks confirms just how difficult he is to hit. To take that even further, Wood has a dominant start/disaster start split of 70%/6% and that’s among the best in the game. Wood is on the verge of being an elite starter if he can trim his walk total. He’s been just as good at home (3.16 ERA) as he has been on the road and he’ll face a Cincinnati squad that is 28-32 in the road. As a significant dog in this matchup, Wood and the Cubbies offer up some nice value.


N.Y. Mets +178 over LOS ANGELES

The Dodgers are on a sick run, having won five in a row and 37 of their past 45 games. You almost never want to wager against such a hot club but the overlay on the Mets here is too large to pass up on. New York has won five of their past six games and they’ve also won six of the past eight at Chavez Ravine. Jenrry Mejia comes in as one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game because he’s only made three starts and does not have a great history. However, Mejia is a former top prospect who had his progress derailed by injuries. He missed the first part of this season with forearm tendonitis. Still just 23 years old, Mejia has been awfully impressive since joining the Mets' rotation with 18 strikeouts and just three walks in 18 IP. Mejia features mid-90s raw stuff with plenty of movement and it has resulted in an elite groundball rate of 60% in those three starts. It’s a small sample size but Mejia’s under the surface stats say it is all legit and at this price, he is absolutely worth a wager.

Ricky Nolasco hasn't made it out of the sixth inning in his last five starts. Over that stretch, Nolasco has a troublesome 1.54 WHIP but has been aided by an unsustainable 86% strand rate. While with the Marlins, Nolasco earned a reputation as a pitcher who could never quite deliver on the solid skills he displayed year after year. A change of scenery at age 30 has rejuvenated him somewhat but this is no longer one of the promising arms in the league. Nolasco has plenty of good games left in him but he also has some disasters left too and the Mets have given him nothing but trouble. In fact, Nolasco is winless in his last six starts against the Mets, going 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA.  Current Mets have 52 hits in 177 career AB’s against Nolasco for a BA of .294 to go along with a .830 OPS. Indeed the Dodgers are on fire but this is too sweet a price to lay off this very live pup.

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Greg Shaker

NY Mets +183

There's a Buy Low, Sell High Order going down at Dodger Stadium tonight. These Dodgers are RED HOT and the have been so for a very longtime making the race in the west perhaps a runaway. It would just be silly to play into this sort of streak but I'm feeling silly today and so I will. We all thought that the Dodger Pitcher would take hold of his new Gig at LA and run with it. But he has not. Oh sure, he's 3-1 because his team has scored for him, but the fact is Nolasco has been very hittable, has a WHIP Over 1.50 over his last 5, and these Mets have been a Pain in his Ass for a very long time, posting a 5-8 record and an ERA well Over 5 verses these guys. New York might be David Wright-less but they are winning ballgames (5 of 6) and the guy they have on the mound tonight can only be described as a BAD ASS. Mejia has wicked good stuff and has K'ed just as many people as innings pitched in his starts for the Mets. He is very hard to pick up on and facing LA for the 1st time is to his advantage. He does have a strong GB Ratio and he certainly has a great first name of Jenrry. That's just way too many rr's not to play this guy. LA is off 7 games verses St Louis and Tampa and I can spell letdown.

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Joe Gavazzi

Colorado -160

As expected, without 2 big bats, Cabrera and Quentin, the Padres have gone 1-4 with a .197 BA failing to score more than 3 runs in any of those games. At the same time, Colorado returned home (recently 7-22 away) for a 3 game sweep of the Pirates in which they battered the Bucs MLB best rotation for 19 runs hitting .311. Look for that to continue in this series at this site, where Colorado has recently gone 7-2 averaging 7.2 RPG with a .321 BA. Volquez does not figure to do much about that. For the season, Volquez has a 5.44 ERA, 5.63 away. In his most recent outing from this mound, Volquez allowed 9 runs on 11 hits in 2 1/3 IP. Far prefer Chacin who has pitched well from this mound of late going 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA in his previous 6 starts. Chacin is in good current form allowing just 3 runs in 15 IP in his last 2 starts and in 7 starts vs. San Diego, Chacin has a 2.57 ERA. Colorado on the money line only!

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Doug Upstone

Cleveland Indians -119

Only three total starts between pitchers Danny Salazar and Andrew Albers. Might be a bias but I really liked what I saw from Salazar in facing Detroit and Toronto, two very good lineup. Albers is still a mystery to me but posted great numbers in his first go. Cleveland has the better lineup to back him up so go with the very slightly more experienced Salazar and the Indians. Good value road favourite

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Jack Jones

Philadelphia Phillies +155

Rarely ever will you get a star pitcher like Cole Hamels at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage as he'll be motivated to beat the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves tonight.

Hamels has posted a 3.81 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 24 starts this season. While the Phillies have struggled for most of the year, it hasn't stopped Hamels from improving as the season has gone on.

Hamels has been at his best of late. The left-hander has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in his last three starts. He has only allowed four earned runs and 23 base runners over 22 innings in his last three outings.

This play falls into a system that is 29-17 (63%, +24.5 units) since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival.

The Phillies are 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 23-10 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Phillies Monday.

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