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MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

Saturday's FOX Tip Sheet
By Chris David

Tampa Bay (66-48) at L.A. Dodgers (65-50)

Some sportsbooks had the Rays’ David Price listed as high as a minus-150 favorite against the Dodgers last night and deservingly so. Tampa Bay led 6-1 after Price exited in the seventh and that’s when Los Angeles rallied for six runs, four in the ninth, to capture a stunning 7-6 victory.

Tampa Bay has now dropped three straight and has gone 3-5 in its last eight games, all against National League opponents. On the season, the Rays are 12-6 in Interleague play.

The Rays have gone 9-12 with Roberto Hernandez (6-11, 4.76 ERA) on the hill this season but the team has won four of his last five starts.

Unfortunately, Tampa is just 2-7in his road starts and that includes four road starts.

Hernandez has seen the ‘under’ go 11-8 in his starts this season. On the road, the ‘under’ is connecting at a 75 percent (6-2) clip this season.

Against the National League, Hernandez boasts an impressive 3-0 record albeit against the Padres, Marlins and Diamondbacks. The ‘under’ cashed in all three games.

Prior to last night’s win at home, Los Angeles finished up an impressive eight-game road trip that watched the team go 7-1.

Dodgers are 8-6 against the American League, which includes a 3-1 mark at home.

The Dodgers have gone 14-4 overall and 8-1 at home when Zach Greinke (9-3, 3.40 ERA) starts this season.

The ‘under’ is 11-6 this season with Greinke on the hill, which includes a 5-3 mark at Dodger Stadium. The ‘under’ has gone 5-0-1 in his last seven starts.

Greinke has pitched in two Interleague games and has earned two no decisions but the Angels won both games, which includes a victory over the N.Y. Yankees on July 30. Most books have Greinke as a 2/3 favorite (Bet $150 to win $100) over the Rays this afternoon.

Baltimore (64-51) at San Francisco (51-64)

The Orioles won their third straight game last night as it stopped the Giants 5-2 in 10 innings. Baltimore is now 8-4 versus NL opponents this season.  The Giants are 3-9 against the AL.

The Orioles have gone 2-2 in the second-half of the season with Wei-Yin Chen (6-4, 2.95 ERA) on the mound and are 7-6 in his 13 starts this season. Five of Chen’s six losses for Baltimore have come on the road.

Chen has been a clear-cut ‘under’ machine (11-2) this season and that includes a current streak of seven straight ‘under’ tickets. In afternoon games, the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 this season.

San Francisco has gone 15-22 against lefthanders and its offense has only hit 16 home runs against southpaws this seasons, which is the worst mark in the majors.

Since Chad Gaudin (5-2, 2.56 ERA) was put into the rotation for the Giants in June, the club has gone 6-4 in his 10 starts. His form has been much better lately with the team winning four of his last five starts.

The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 overall in Gaudin’s appearances, which includes a 4-1 (80%) mark at AT&T Park.

Chen or Gaudin have not started in an interleague matchup this season.

The total is only 7 today and Baltimore is listed as a road favorite.

Minnesota (51-62) at Chicago White Sox (43-71)

Minnesota swept a double-header from Chicago on Friday, notching a 7-5 victory in Game 1 and a 3-2 extra-inning win in Game 2.

Including yesterday’s wins, the Twins are 8-2 versus the White Sox this season and 4-0 in games played at U.S. Cellular Field.

The ‘over’ has gone 6-3-1 in the 10 games.

The Twins have gone 2-7 in Mike Pelfrey’s (4-9, 5.23 ERA) nine road starts this season and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3 in those games. His offense hasn’t helped him much, averaging just 3.1 runs per game in the nine games.

The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in his eight afternoon starts.

Pelfrey has faced the White Sox twice this season, both games at home. He went 0-1 and has been tagged for 18 hits and nine earned runs in 10 innings. The ‘over’ cashed in the two matchups.

Some pundits might say that yesterday’s outcome wasn’t surprising since Chicago has been inconsistent all season. The White Sox recently completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees at home this week, but that came after a 10 consecutive losses. Against New York, Chicago scored 17 runs in three games which was one less (18) than they produced during the recent slide.

Andre Rienzo (0-0, 1.38 ERA) will be making his third career start on Saturday and still looking for a result after a pair of no decisions in his first two outings which were on the road. In those games, he’s allowed nine hits and two earned runs in 13 innings while striking out nine.

Chicago has been installed as a short home favorite and the total is hovering around 8½-runs.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Oakland A's at Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays taken behind the woodshed spanked 14-6 in the opener of this set with Oakland have pitching experience on their side when the series resumes this afternoon at the Rogers Centre. Toeing the rubber for Toronto will be Mark Buehrle sporting a 7-7 record and 4.41 ERA. The southpaw finding his groove is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA the past three (3-0 TSR) including a shutout gem against these same A's two starts back going 7 inning of 5 hit ball in Jays 5-0 victory. On the other mound, A's hand the ball to 2011 first-round draft pick Sonny Gray. The right-hander tossing four scoreless innings in two prior relief appearances for Oakland has put together a 10-7 mark, 3.42 ERA in 20 starts for Triple-A Sacramento. Oakland 6-13 on the road vs a lefty in day games have an uphill battle against Buehrle with his compelling August team start numbers (10-5) and sparkling 6-1 stretch in front of the home crowd. However, an upset is not out of the question. Toronto has not responded well in this situation. The Jays are on a 1-5 skid as favorite following a loss in the opening game of a home series, 1-8 slump following a game in which their pen had to toss => 6 innings the previous night which includes 0-4 on home field. One final sports betting nugget for total players. Jays are 1-6 O/U L7 at home w/Buehrle, A's are 1-8 O/U L9 vs a southpaw, 2-6-1 O/U L9 vs an AL East opponent.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

MLB Saturday Thoughts
By Dave Essler

Washington-Philadelphia: I simply cannot back the Nationals against a LHP, and the very early money tends to agree.

Miami-Atlanta: There's every reason to think that Eovaldi COULD keep Atlanta in check. A lot depends on Friday's game, but Nate has only been touched for more than three runs once. Atlanta hit him last year, hence the -230 or whatever, but Wood simply CAN be had. Don't think this is a high scoring game, again, bullpen usage dependent.

Padres-Reds: The world will be on Cingriani and I get that, but Ross already burned me once (by pitching well) and we like the Padres better against LHP, so worst case scenario I may well take the Padres RL.

Cubs-Cardinals: Carlos was a freak show against the Dodgers, but my issue w/him is that's three straight 100+ pitch games for someone that's been a bullpen guy. I suppose that could work to his advantage, given he's probably more rested than most. Wacha's a young kid that the Cubs, nor many others, have seen. Beastly numbers w/Memphis this season, so probably under here, I would think. Probably decided by the bullpens.

Pirates-Cubs: We all know AJ hasn't been the same dominant pitcher on the road, but obviously still a force. My issue here is that although Pittsburgh beat the Fish three straight, they really were handed those game and hence perhaps a little over valued. I could make a case for the Rockies here.

Met-D-Backs: What I don't like about Wheeler in this spot is that he's a flyball pitcher in a small park, so if he's not getting the K's that could be a problem. And the same can be said about McCarthy, and ex-Oakland pitcher that benefited from the big park. I can see this game being higher scoring, especially if either team uses much bullpen Friday. Although without Montero, and the Mets sucking against RHP's this season, perhaps not. Lean D-Backs a little.

Tigers-Yankees: Welp, we obviously know that the book on Hughes has been fade him at home, but I've never liked Sanchez and honestly, no matter who plays the Yankee RL is only -125 so I would gladly take my chances.

Oakland-Toronto: Need to clarify who's pitching for the A's. Buehrle has been better at home and perhaps a bit cheaper after the Angels lit him up. Callaspo's status still a question mark. Both bullpens steady and this game may stay under. Like under better if Gray is pitching. Griffin just scares me.

Minnesota-White Sox: Probably all comes down to whether Rienzo throws balls or strikes. He can be wild and walk the park, or he can easily strikeout 10 in game. Pelfrey rarely pitches deep, so with these guys playing two on Friday one could reasonable assume that the bullpens matter even more here. Lean Twins and over, but haven't checked the weather and it DOES depend on tonight's game.

Angels-Indians: Clearly misprint with Wilson at only -115 over Ublado? Nope. We love the Indians much better against left handed pitching, and the Angels can't seem to hit anyone. All we'd need is for Ubaldo to get the ball somewhere near the plate to take the Indians. I couldn't bet on that happening, but would take the Indians and/or the over if you made me.

Boston-Kansas City: OK, Kyle, I like Boston here. Wasn't doubting Doubront's ability the other night as much as his mental focus. Actually like him a bit here against a team that's had trouble this season w/LHP against Guthrie, who obviously Boston saw tons of when he was with the Orioles.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

Saturday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-101, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies starter Cliff Lee  has a 1-3 record with a 5.92 ERA in four turns since the beginning of July.

Cold batting stat: Washington is last in the majors in batting average (.220) and OPS (.643) against left-handed pitchers.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Phillies are 1-4 in Lee's last five road starts.

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds (-192, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds starter Tony Cingrani has 97 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings while limiting opposing batters to a .197 clip.

Hot batting stat: Padres OF Will Venable, who homered in Friday's game, is batting .368 since the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The road team is 6-1 in umpire Rob Drake's last seven games behind home plate.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (-220, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Marlins starter Nathan Eovaldi is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts against the Braves.

Hot batting stat: Atlanta LF Justin Upton has the longest active hitting streak in the National League at 13 games - including six homers in that span. Upton is 2-for-6 with two strikeouts against Eovaldi.

Weather: There will be a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms by gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow out to center field at 3 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 13-3-1 in umpire Jim Joyce's last 17 Saturday games behind home plate.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-213, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Cubs starter Carlos Villanueva went 7 1/3 innings to beat Texas in mid-April but is 0-7 over his last 11 starts, a span interrupted by a stint in the bullpen.

Hot batting stat: St. Louis CF Jon Jay has six multi-hit efforts in his last 10 games, including three three-hit performances in the last six.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 8 mph. Currently, there is a 10 percent chance of rain for gametime.

Key betting note: The Cubs are 0-5 in Villanueva's last five starts.

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-149, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mets starter Zack Wheeler has felt at home on the road this season, posting a 3-0 mark while limiting the opposition to a .196 batting average.

Hot batting stat: Dbacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt hit his 27th homer Friday which tied him with Pittsburgh's Pedro Alvarez for the National League lead. The blast was his fourth in eight games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-1 in McCarthy's last five starts overall.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies (+130, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates ace A.J. Burnett has yielded fewer than three earned runs in each of his last seven starts.

Cold batting stat: Rockies OF Michael Cuddyer is 5-for-28 (.179) in his career versus Burnett.

Weather: There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with wind blowing out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Pirates are 1-5 in Burnett's last six road starts.


Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers (-151, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers starter Zack Greinke owns 5-1 mark and 2.96 ERA in nine outings at Dodger Stadium this year.

Hot batting stat: Dodgers INF Nick Punto is 8-for-20 lifetime against Rays starter Roberto Hernandez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Rays are 6-0 in their last six Saturday games.

Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants (+114, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Giants starter Chad Gaudin has been a fine addition to San Francisco's rotation, going 5-1 while yielding more than three runs only twice in 10 starts.

Hot batting stat: O's slugger Chris Davis is tied with Detroit's Miguel Cabrera for the major-league lead with 108 RBIs.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 Saturday games.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

Saturday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (+147, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Yanks starter Phil Hughes' winless drought reached five starts when he was clubbed for five runs in 2 2/3 innings in San Diego on Sunday.

Hot batting stat: Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera has tormented Hughes, going 12-for-23 with four homers, three doubles and 10 RBIs.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Tigers are 4-0 in starter Anibal Sanchez's last four starts versus the American League East.

Oakland A's at Toronto Blue Jays (-136, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Former first-round pick Sonny Gray will make his MLB debut for the Oakland A's.

Hot batting stat: A's OF Josh Reddick went 3-for-5, blasting three homers and collecting five RBIs in Friday's 14-6 drubbing of the Jays.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Blue Jays are 0-10 in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning record.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-130, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins starter Mike Pelfrey has struggled away from home, posting a 2-5 mark with a 4.96 ERA.

Hot batting stat: The White Sox roster has hit a collective .358 versus Pelfrey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Twins are 2-8 in Pelfrey's last 10 starts as an underdog.

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians (-111, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Angels lefty C.J. Wilson owns a 7-1 record since June 14.

Cold batting stat: Angels OF Josh Hamilton has struggled versus Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez, going 1-for-9 with five strikeouts.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians are 6-0 in Jimenez's last six starts as a favorite.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (+179, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers hurler Derek Holland is coming off one of his strongest outings of the year, as he held Oakland to four hits over eight scoreless frames and struck out 10 on Sunday.

Hot batting stat: Houston C Jason Castro is riding a nine-game hitting streak, which matches his career high, and his 14 home runs are the most by an Astros catcher since Mitch Meluskey hit 14 in 2000.

Weather: Due to a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in Houston, the roof could be closed at Minute Maid Park. Temperatures will be in the high-90s and wind will blow out to left field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 9-0 in umpire Phil Cuzzi's last nine games behind home plate.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (+113, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Red Sox pitcher Felix Doubront allowed five hits over seven innings in Boston's 4-0 victory over Arizona on Sunday to snap a two-start losing streak.

Hot batting stat: David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston's top two left-handed batters - are hitting a combined .363 in 80 at-bats, with Ortiz recording three home runs and nine RBIs in 38 at-bats against Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Red Sox are 12-3 in Doubront's last 15 starts during Game 3 of a series.


Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners (-170, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma is holding opponents to a .191 average in 13 home starts while going 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.

Cold batting stat: Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy is 3-for-26 over the last seven games after going hitless in five at-bats in the opener.

Weather: Due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in Seattle, the roof could be closed at Safeco Field. Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow out to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1 in umpire Dan Bellino's last seven Saturday games behind home plate.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 10

MLB Odds and Picks - Can Cliff Lee right the ship?
By: The Linemakers

The Phillies have had a tough time of it lately, losing 15 of their last 18 games, and All-Star lefthander Cliff Lee has been a key factor in their struggles. He's pitched poorly in his previous three starts, all losses, and the Phillies have dropped five of his last six outings overall as they head into tonight's game at Washington.

Over Lee's last four starts, he has a 5.92 ERA and has allowed eight home runs. Over his first 17 starts of the season, he gave up only eight homers. Because of Lee's (10-5, 3.13 ERA) recent struggles, coupled with the Phillies hitting woes, his pitching rating has dropped considerably to the point where he's a slight underdog to Nationals' rookie righty Taylor Jordan (1-1, 3.76 ERA).

Lee has faced the Nationals twice this season, both at home. The Phillies went 1-1 and Lee surrendered six of his 16 home runs on the season in those two contests. In his July 10 start against them, he gave up four solo home runs in a 5-1 loss.

Lee last pitched on Sunday against the Braves after missing a start due to a stiff neck and went only five innings in a 4-1 loss. It was his shortest outing of the season.

With all the momentum and the line suggesting Lee and the Phillies are a good bet against tonight, we're going to go the other way and ride Lee at a cheap price to break out of his slump. He last lost four straight games in 2007, but more importantly, his opponent tonight hasn't exactly been untouchable.

The Phillies beat Taylor Jordan, 4-2, on July 9 and he's coming off a game on Sunday to the Brewers where he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings, a game the Nationals eventually lost, 8-5. The Nationals are 3-4 in his seven starts this season.

While the Nationals pounded out nine runs last night with eight of them coming off lefthander John Lannan, they still rank last in the majors with a .220 average against southpaw pitchers.

We think this a good spot for the floundering Phillies to bounce back at a cheap price with Lee.

Saturday selections:

Phillies (Lee) -103 at Nationals

Mets (Wheeler) +150 at D-backs

Royals (Guthrie) +115 vs. Red Sox

Second-half record: 45-33 (+1,445)

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