Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -101

The Tigers are a nice value play at this price. They have won nine in a row, and they have one of the best in the business going in Verlander. He's not having a Cy Young-caliber season, but he has a respectable 3.88 ERA and is coming off a gem. Plus, Detroit has won each of his last two and 13 of his last 18 starts against the Indians. Cleveland's Masterson is having a very strong season. However, the Tigers have had his number. He's 2-8 (4-9 on the money line) with a 5.86 ERA in 13 starts against them. He's lost both starts against Detroit this season while giving up 10 earned runs in 11 2-3 innings. The Tigers are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings overall and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland. Take Detroit.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Jeff Alexander

Cincinnati Reds -152

Look for the Reds to get it done tonight with Latos on the hill. The right-hander is 10-3 with a 3.37 ERA in 22 starts this season. He's 6-1 with a 3.54 ERA in nine home starts. Oakland's Straily is 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts and 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA in 17 starts this season. Latos hasn't pitched since July 30 so his arm should be feeling good. Consider that the Reds are 17-4 in his last 21 starts when he's working on 5 or 6 days rest. Bet Cincy.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Steve Janus

Cleveland Indians -107

It's not very often that I feel confident going against the Tigers Justin Verlander, but he's not been the same pitcher that we have grown accustomed to in 2013. Verlander has a 4.05 ERA and 1.391 WHIP over 12 road starts and a very poor 6.62 ERA and 1.924 WHIP over his last three starts. He's got a 4.65 ERA in his career vs the Indians. He's allowed 12 runs on 23 hits and 8 walks in 17 innings over his three starts vs Cleveland this year. Verlander is just 6-12 in road night games over the last 2 seasons. Some will point to the fact that he's coming off a strong start vs the Nationals, where he allowed 1 run on 5 hits over 6 and 2/3 innings, but he's just 2-6 against the money following a start where he allowed 1 earned run or less this season.

The Indians counter with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Justin Masterson, who is 3-0 with dominant 0.84 ERA and 0.703 WHIP over his last three starts. Masterson has been one of the best pitchers to back when he takes the mound at home. He's 8-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.184 WHIP at Progressive Field in 2013!

Cleveland is 14-2 in home games after allowing 4 runs or less in 3 straight games, 18-8 at home following a loss by 2 runs or less and 21-9 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Jack Jones

Cleveland Indians -105

Trailing the Detroit Tigers by four games for 1st place in the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. That's especially the case after blowing a 2-0 lead in the 9th inning in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Justin Masterson has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year. He has gone 13-7 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 23 starts, 8-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 13 home starts, and 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.703 WHIP in his last three outings.

Justin Verlander is having one of the worst seasons of his career by his standards. The right-hander is 11-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 23 starts, 6-4 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 12 road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.924 WHIP in his last three starts.

Cleveland is 14-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. Verlander is 2-10 (-9.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 35-16 in their last 51 home games. Cleveland is 9-2 in Masterson's last 11 home starts. Bet the Indians Tuesday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Rocketman

LA Dodgers @ St Louis
Play: LA Dodgers -148

The LA Dodgers travel to St Louis to take on the Cardinals on Tuesday night. The LA Dodgers are 9-2 this year when playing against a team with a winning record on the 2nd half of the season. The Dodgers have won 5 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games overall. St Louis has lost 9 of their past 12 games overall. The Dodgers are allowing only 1.9 runs per game their past seven games overall where they are allowing opposing teams a combined .227 batting average. Clayton Kershaw is a beast. Kershaw is 10-6 with a 1.87 ERA overall this year, 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA his last 3 starts. Kershaw has 22 strike outs compared to no walks his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!

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Justin Bay

Washington Nationals -114

Julio Teheran
- Last game vs. WAS: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1.20 WHIP, .292 OBA
- Career vs. WAS: 4.50 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .329 OBA
- Away: 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .271 OBA
- Nationals hitters vs. Teheran in his career: .359 BA

Gio Gonzalez
- Last game vs. ATL: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0.57 WHIP, .130 OBA
- Career vs. ATL: 5.73 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .239 OBA
- Home: 3.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .232 OBA
- Braves hitters vs. Gonzalez in his career: .235 BA

Braves
- .245 BA vs. Lefties
- 7th in Runs Scored
- 9th in Slugging %

Nationals
- .251 BA vs. Righties
- 28th in Runs Scored
- 21st in Slugging %

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Tony Bucca

Toronto vs. Seattle
Play: Over 7½

Usually with King Felix, this line is lower. It opened at 8 and has been bet down to 7' implying an over is the correct side. Josh Johnson has a high 9.00 ERA on the road with a 1.85 WHIP. It hasn't been his year to say the least. L3 started by Johnson have gone over and 10 out of 15 have gone over. Blue Jays road games and Seattle home games average a combined mid 8 runs per game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Vegas Connection

Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Oakland Athletics

975 Oakland at 976 Cincinnati Straily vs Latos TV MLB OAK are 22-8 in their last 30 interleague games. A's 64-67 Reds 61- 51 CIN are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games. CIN are 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Straily 6-5 Latos 10-3 Oakland wins on the road.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Joe Gavazzi

Tampa Bay -120

I reduce this rating just a bit because of the strong current form of Miley. In his last 5 outings, Miley is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA and a .198 OBA. In his most recent start against Tampa Bay and Hellickson, Miley allowed just 2 hits in 6 1/3 IP of a 7-0 win. But Arizona has taken a step backward with recent negative runs of 15-22 and 6-11 to fall behind LAD by 6 games. Due to a surge by the Red Sox, the Rays are again in the "Hunter" role trailing the Red Sox by 1 game for the Division lead. Yet Tampa Bay remains on runs of 52-27 and 25-6 as well as posting a superlative 12-3 Interleague record. In his previous 7 starts, Hellickson was 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA before taking the loss to Miley and the DBacks in his most recent outing. Let's call it our Revenge Game of the Day!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Nelly

San Diego Padres + over Baltimore Orioles

San Diego is 11-6 in the last 17 games and in 10 of those games the offense has posted five or more runs. Over the last 10 games San Diego has scored 4.5 runs per game on average and the Padres own a solid 31-25 record at home on the year. Edinson Volquez owns an ugly 5.56 ERA on the season but his xFIP is just 4.15 and the Padres have won each of his last three starts. He has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last 10 outings, allowing just four home runs in that span and keeping his walks under control for the most part. Baltimore does not have much experience against Volquez and the first game after a long cross country trip can be challenging. Baltimore is also not playing that well, going just 4-6 in the last 10 games and slipping in the wild card picture. The Baltimore pitching staff has allowed three or more runs in eight straight games while giving up five or more runs in six of the last 10 games. In that span the powerful Oriole offense is batting just .235 while scoring less than 3.9 runs per game. Bud Norris looked sharp in his first start for Baltimore but that game came at home and had extra meaning going against his former team. Norris has allowed three or more runs in seven of his last 10 starts and while he can produce strikeouts he has never been overly reliable. His road ERA for the season is 5.91 and the Orioles have had inconsistent bullpen results this season. San Diego won both meetings in May between these teams and with solid dog value it makes sense to back the home team in this matchup.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Jeff Benton

Your Tuesday freebie is the Over in the Tigers-Indians game.

Last night the teams did hold Under, and the Under in the series is now 4-2 the last 6 times these division rivals have faced one another.

Looking at the pitching matchup of Justin Verlander and Justin Masterson, one would be of the opinion that this shapes up to be  low-scoring pitcher's duel, but that has NOT been the case when this pair have opposed the others clubs.

Verlander's ERA versus the Indians is 5.82 in his 3 starts, while Masterson's ERA versus the Tigers stands at 7.71 in his pair of starts against the Tigers.

Each of Velrander's last 3 starts and 5 of his last 6 overall have ended up playing Over the total, and this one will as well.

Tigers-Indians to score some runs tonight.

2♦ DETROIT-CLEVELAND OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Brad Wilton

Gave you the Dodgers as a free play winner last night, tonight's free play winner is the Braves over the Nationals once again.

Why are the Nats favored in this game?

All Atlanta has done is win 11 games in a row, including last night's 3-2 series opener to make it a 12-3 run the last 15 times they have faced their division-rivals.

That only is reason enough to side with the Braves as they look to make it an even dozen games in a row on the "W" side of the ledger.

Julio Teheran goes up against Gio Gonzalez tonight, and Teheran enters with an ERA of 1.00 over his last 3 starts although he has won just one of those assignments.

Gonzalez is 2-4 with a 5.73 ERA in 7 career starts versus the Bravos, and is coming off a mighty ugly outing against the Tigers in which he allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in just over 3 frames of work.

Until I actually see Atlanta take a loss, I will keep on riding them - especially when they are installed as the underdog!

3♦ ATLANTA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Brett Atkins

My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Arizona Diamondbacks, as I like the American League East contender in Phoenix.

These two are actually meeting for the second time in a week as they open up with the first of two interleague games. The teams split a pair of contests at Tampa Bay last week, then the Snakes slithered off to Boston while the Rays stayed home and hosted San Francisco.

With Tampa Bay sitting a half game out in the American League East, I think it'll treat this series with must-win status. I'm not going to list either pitcher, cause I really wouldn't mind if Tampa Bay's right-hander Jeremy Hellickson was scratched. After all, he 1-4 with a 6.60 mark in interleague play.

I just think Tampa Bay is in a good spot to score a road win here.

1♦ TAMPA BAY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Chris Jordan

My free winner for tonight is on the Kansas City Royals over the Minnesota Twins, and I want you playing the Royals on the Run Line.

We've heard about the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers, and their incredible runs here in the second half. But the hottest team in baseball? It's the Royals, who blasted the Twins in the series opener and I think will beat the Minnesota for the 12th time in 15 meetings.

Kansas City made a statement in last night's 13-0 win, a blow that sent spiraling Minnesota to 13 games below .500 and just 22-34 on the road. Unfortunately, Kansas City’s hot streak hasn't helped it make up ground in the American League Central since first-place Detroit has won nine straight games. Nevertheless, the Royals are in the American League wild-card chase.

I think we're going to see another blowout.

4♦ KANSAS CITY -1.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Scott Delaney

My free winner is on the San Diego Padres as the home underdog against the Baltimore Orioles, as I think the home team is better suited in this Interleague clash at Petco Park.

I genuinely feel bad for Buck Showalter and his Orioles, as I like what he's done for the program, but the truth is they're falling from grace in the American League East, having lost eight of 12 to fall well behind the first-place Boston Red Sox, 6 games to be exact.

The fact the Padres just swiped two of three from the New York Yankees and have won 10 of 15 leads me to believe they're playing with confidence. Take San Diego.

5♦ SAN DIEGO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 6

Wunderdog

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis +140

The Dodgers have won 15 straight on the road, looking to challenge the record of 17wins. They have Clayton Kershaw on the mound tonight with his under 2 ERA, and looks to be in good shape here. He will be opposed by Joe Kelly who has pitched pretty well himself with a 3.10 ERA entering this contest. It's hard to find any negative numbers on the Dodgers right now simply because they have played so well. The Cardinals are at their best when facing the best as they are 25-10 when facing a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 in their last 35. They have also bounced back off a loss very well, as they are 39-17 in their last 56 after suffering a setback. The Dodgers own just a 17-36 record here in their last 53, and I consider this game a toss up. With the Cards listed as a moderate dog, that is where the value lies. Play on St. Louis.

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