MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

Tuesday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-189, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Despite pitching well versus the Marlins on July 26, Pirates starter Jeff Locke took the 2-0 loss after being charged with both runs on eight hits in his 6 2/3 innings of work.

Hot batting stat: Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton went 2-for-2 with a solo blast in that game versus Locke.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 5 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The under is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings.


Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (-117, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick was knocked around in his last start on July 31. He lasted two innings after giving up six earned runs on eight hits in a 9-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants.

Cold batting stat: The Cubs roster is 9-for-50 (.180) collective versus Kendrick.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow out to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Cubs are 5-1 in Edwin Jackson's last six starts.


Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-125, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Nats starter Gio Gonzalez is coming off his worst outing of the season. The southpaw give up 10 runs on 11 hits in just 3 1/3 innings in an 11-1 defeat to the Detroit Tigers on July 31.

Hot batting stat: Nationals CF Denard Span is 6-for-9 (.667) with two triples in his career versus Braves starter Julio Teheran.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s and wind will blow out to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 5-1 in Teheran's last six starts versus the National League East.


Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (-105, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood gave up seven earned runs on 10 hits in just 2 1/3 innings en route to a 9-0 loss in his last start against the Atlanta Braves on July 31.

Cold batting stat: Mets 2B Daniel Murphy is 1-for-8 in his career versus Chatwood.

Weather: There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets are 0-7 in their last seven games following an off day.


Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (+144, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw went 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA in his six July starts. The lefty is tied for the MLB lead in quality starts with 19.

Cold batting stat: Cards OF Carlos Beltran is 4-for-19 (.211) with seven K's in his career versus the Dodgers' southpaw.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow from right field to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 6-0-1 in Kershaw's last seven starts versus the Cardinals.


Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-175, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Giants starter Matt Cain took the loss in his lone start versus the Brewers this season. He went six innings and gave up seven runs on seven hits in a 7-2 loss.

Hot batting stat: Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy is 6-for-15 with one double, one triple, one homer and four RBIs in his career versus Cain.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 10-2-2 in Cain's last 14 home starts.


Interleague

Oakland A's at Cincinnati Reds (-143, 8)


Cold pitching stat: A's starter Dan Straily has lost three straight decisions and owns a 5.06 ERA during that stretch.

Hot batting stat: A's OF Chris Young is 5-for-14 (.357) with one double and one home run in his career versus Reds starter Mat Latos.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 5 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The Reds are 7-0 in their last seven interleague home games versus a team with a winning record.


Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks (+108, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson had a personal six-game winning streak snapped his last time out. He gave up four runs on seven hits, including one homer, in 4 1/3 innings in a 7-0 loss to the DBacks on July 31.

Hot batting stat: DBacks OF Jason Kubel is 4-for-8 with two homers and three RBIs in his career versus Hellickson.

Weather: Due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms, the roof could be closed at Chase Field.

Key betting note: The under is 5-0 in DBacks SP Wade Miley's last five interleague starts.


Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres (+110, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Newly acquired Bud Norris got the victory in his first start for the Orioles against his former team, the Houston Astros, on August 1. The righty went six innings and gave up two solo homers en route to a 6-3 victory.

Hot batting stat:  Orioles SS J.J. Hardy is a pedestrian 4-for-15 in his career versus Padres starter Edinson Volquez. But two of those hits are home runs.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Padres are 6-0 in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

Tuesday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (-108, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers righty Justin Verlander has picked up a pair of wins over the Tribe this year, but has given up 23 hits and 11 earned runs for a 5.82 ERA against the Central Division rivals.

Cold batting stat: Indians 2B Jason Kipnis is 3-for-19 (.158) with eight strikeouts in his career versus Verlander.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast and wind will blow out to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians are 9-2 in starting pitcher Justin Masterson's last 11 home starts.


New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (-119, 7)

Cold pitching stat: White Sox starter Chris Sale is coming off one of his worst outings of the season. The lefty lasted just five innings, giving up five earned runs on 10 hits in a 6-1 loss to the Indians on August 1.

Hot batting stat: White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez is 4-for-11 (.364) with a double, homer and four RBIs in his career versus Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s and there will be a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-1 in Kuroda's last 11 starts versus American League Central.


Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (-192, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Royals starter James Shields is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last two outings.

Hot batting stat: Twins 1B Justin Morneau is 13-for-35 (.371) with six doubles, three homers and eight RBIs in his career versus Shields.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-90s with wind blowing from right field to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Royals are 5-0 in Shields' last five starts versus a team with a losing record.


Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (+160, 9)

Cold pitching stat: The Astros have lost SP Jordan Lyles' previous seven starts.

Hot batting stat: Prior to Monday's game, Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia is 14-for-25 (.560) in his career at Houston's MinuteMaid Park.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 34-16-6 in Lyles' last 56 starts overall.


Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (+137, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers ace Yu Darvish is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his two starts versus the Angels this season. He has fanned 17 Angels hitters in his 11 innings of work.

Cold batting stat: Angels 2B Howie Kendrick is 0-for-14 with seven K's in his career versus Darvish.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 8-3-1 in Angels' stater Garrett Richards' last 12 starts overall.


Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-176, 7)

Hot pitching stat: In his previous outing versus the Jays on May 3, Felix Hernandez went eight innings, striking out seven and giving up five hits en route to a 4-0 victory.

Cold batting stat: Mariners OF Raul Ibanez is 4-for-17 (.235) with five strikeouts in his career versus Jays starter Josh Johnson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Blue Jays are 0-7 in Johnson's last seven starts.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

MLB Odds and Picks – Cardinals’ Joe Kelly looks to halt Dodgers’ road win streak
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

The Dodgers are looking to win their 16 straight road game and sixth in a row overall tonight, and they send out their ace, Clayton Kershaw – perhaps the best pitcher in baseball – to get the job done. Kershaw has been on a tear lately and is finally getting credit, in the form of wins, for his efforts. Over his past seven starts, the left-hander has gone 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA to bump his season record to 10-6.

The Dodgers, winners in 32 of their last 39 games, are two wins shy from matching the NL record for most consecutive wins on the road, set by the 1916 New York Giants.

The Cardinals, who the Dodgers beat, 3-2, last night behind Zack Greinke, stand in the way of that record. Because of the Dodgers’ success on the road, plus their current overall form and having Kershaw on the mound, they are a big -155 favorite tonight against Joe Kelly (2-3, 3.10 ERA).

That's a lot of positive factors in Dodgers’ favor, and the price may appear cheap. But let's not sell the Cardinals short. They actually boast a better record than the Dodgers on the season, and Kelly has quietly become one of the more consistent starters for St. Louis since joining the rotation last month. In his last four starts, he's 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA and has not allowed a run in his last 14 2/3 innings.

Still not sold on the Cards? Well, there's more to consider, like how Kershaw has fared against the them recently. In his last six starts against St. Louis, Kershaw is 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA. He allowed eight runs in a visit last season to Busch Stadium and gave up four runs in 5-3 loss at Dodger Stadium to them on May 26.

Kelly's recent performances, Kershaw being somewhat human against St. Louis, and the Cards winning ways should tempt you to consider taking the plus-money tonight. And it gets easier to swallow when considering that Hanley Ramirez, the heart of the Dodgers lineup and the main cause for their winning slurge, is likely to be out again with an injured shoulder.

When the Cardinals lost four of five to the Pirates last week, it looked like they were headed for a big slump. But their offense has come back strong, scoring 13 runs or more in three of four – the finale against Pittsburgh and in taking two of three from the Reds.

From a value standpoint, St. Louis is the way to go tonight.

Tuesday’s selections:

Cardinals (Kelly) +145 vs Dodgers

Braves (Teheran) +115 at Nationals

Second-half record: 38-28 (+1,223)

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

Tuesday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler

Atlanta-Washington: I suspect the obvious play would be Gio at what appears to be a cheap price. But, in all three starts since the break he's given up more flyball outs than not, which would make me think long and hard about the over. Since Teheran has quietly strung together three very impressive starts, the Braves are not out of the question here. However, Washington has hit him well, so over is perhaps a play. Haven't checked weather.

Cubs-Phillies: For arguments sake let's assume both Kendrick and Jackson are a wash, although the Phillies have hit Jackson pretty well, albeit in limited at bats. Without Papellbon (I don't like him anyways) and not that Bastardo is suspended, I have to question the locker room and mindset of Philadelphia here, having lost 13 of the last 14 games. Certainly can't take them as favorites.

Miami-Pittsburgh: Those of you that follow what we do know we won't lay -185, and honestly Alvarez is the real deal. Toronto would love to have him back. Anyhow, as good as Locke has/can be, he can walk too many for my liking. Of course the free-swinging Fish are not BB candidates, but this does have the potential to be a public disaster if Miami can hit. Locke's been better on the road, so I could easily see taking the Miami RL here, and/or the under.

Colorado-NY Mets: As much as we don't know a ton about Mejia (or I don't) we have to assume the Rockies don't either. Chatwood quite hittable, but does tend to keep the ball down and in the park. Without Wright, Valdespin talk, no Gonazalez, this one has under written on it, and I lean Mets simply because their bullpen is better, although that's not saying much.

Dodgers-Cardinals: I suppose without looking too terribly much at numbers, one would almost have to take the red-hot (except for last night) Cardinals as home dogs to even Kerhsaw. I certainly won't lay the juice with a road team missing  several key components to their offense. However, trusting the St. Louis bullpen isn't always enticing, either. Because Kershaw is such a good hitter, I do like to think this game does hit 7 runs, given that a 3-3 game is a winner. Home team RL is no doubt something to consider.

Brewers-Giants: Welp, the Brewers were supposed to be the sharp play last night, but the bullpen fell apart on the, With Peralta on the hill, it's likely we'll see the Brewers pen again. But, since the break and in July, he's been a different pitcher. What I see here is a big question as the where the Brewers' runs are going to come from, so PERHAPS I could take the Giants RL, although I really don't trust Cain, either. Even though he hasn't given up a home run since June, he's had three straight high-pitch count games. Bottom line, probably under.

Detroit-Cleveland: So, if we told you that you could have Verlander at +100 or so at anytime in the season, you'd probably bet it blindly. I didn't realize until I looked that his WHIP is all the way up to 1.41 this season. Ouch. Masterson should be extra motivated, given that not only is he facing Verlander, but the Tigers, who are about the only team to brutalize him (twice) this season.  Peralta another 50-gamer so how does that effect the clubhouse, or does it. How does the Tigers' coming back to win (again) effect CLEVELAND tonight. I guess I'd have to take the under, and probably Cleveland.

Boston-Houston: Although the Astros only scored two runs last night, they ran themselves out of several more. Our play on the Houston RL was a winner, and I think it is again tonight. Truly Wright is not Lackey, and Houston is the confident team. Because we had $ on that, I watched until the Wesley Wright came in. If the next team the Lackey faces has any patience, he'll get killed. Houston simply swung at bad pitches and still won. We expected Oberholzter to do to Boston what he did to the Rays. We don't think Lyles will, however, and like this to go over as well.

Twins-Royals: I know we should never overlook any team at the right price, but the Twins simply are in that category right now. Our lone loss was the Twins last night, and their pen was taxed as well as the fact that they just looked, after the six run inning, like they didn't care, which is uncharacteristic of a Twins team. So, if you made me I'd have to take the Royals RL. We did get the total right in that one last night, but sadly enough it was the wrong team doing all the scoring.

Yankees-White Sox: Our long term clients got the lean to the over last night, and tonight we lean under here. The Yankees are simply not backable with all the off-field attention they're getting, regardless of who is ON the field. Although Kuroda probably does give them their best chance to win, I can't go there.

Texas-Angels: Darvish has been a freak since coming back from the DL, and of course Texas has been on a tear. However, I am not ruling out the Angels RL here. With the Cruz suspension, even TALK of Manny Ramirez coming in, the Angels are one team that's seen enough of Darvish to perhaps keep this close. RIchards is perhaps one of the more under rated pitchers you don't hear much about, and if this game truly is going to be low scoring, I'd take the Angels RL.

Toronto-Seattle: Last night we recommend taking Dickey outdoors where there's more wind to make his knuckle ball, well, knuckle. Tonight, we just can't, for any reason, put money on Josh Johnson. We tried that not that long ago, and won't do it again. The Mariners are always a better play-on against a RHP anyways.  I do see what appears to be a lot of scalping here on Toronto, and if it gets much cheaper, that's one chalk I will consider laying.

Oakland-Cincinnati: Last week (from yesterday's memory) the Reds hit .197 and their bullpen ERA was over 8.00. I do not care who they are playing or who is pitching (I do know who is starting for both teams, however) I cannot back the Reds. By process of elimination, I would take Oakland, even without at DH, and lean under.

Tampa Bay-Arizona: The Rays had always been a better play "on" against left handed pitchers, that is until Miley beat them last week in Tampa Bay.  In fact, these same two pitchers met and the D-Backs won 7-0. I suppose one could argue there's reverse regression or whatever you wanna call it here, and that Hellickson gets his day (night) in this game, but in a game with the total coming down to 8 at some sharp books, I would have to lean D-backs here. Remember, this time Hellickson has to hit.

Baltimore-San Diego: Well, the Padres have certainly seen plenty of Norris in the NL, and of course Norris gets his first Oriole start against his old team under his belt. Yes, Volquez walks a lot of people, but the Orioles aren't the most patient team on the planet. Given the aforementioned, I tend to think this game goes over, and I'd like to take the Padres, but like taking them better against a LHP.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks

Tampa Bay and Arizona square off in a rematch of last week's mini two game set at the Trop. In that series Rays won the opener but were blanked in the second game which featured today's starters. Rays' Jeremy Hellickson saw a seven game undefeated streak end as he went 4 1/3 innings allowing 7 hits 4 runs in the 7-ZIP loss. Despite the rare defeat Rays remain a strong 12-3 last fifteen with their hurler. Henderson's pitching rival Wade Miley allowed just two hits in 6 1/3 innings of work in that victory moving the southpaw's mark to a smart 4-1 w/1.59 ERA in six July starts (4-2 TSR). Tampa on a tear winning 25-of-31 including 11-3 on the road along with owning a smart 12-3 mark vs the Senior league split between 8-2 at the Trop, 4-1 traveling have been pegged -$1.20 to -$1.30 favorites to take the opener. Always tough going against a team on a roll but Rays could get snake-bit. A deeper dive into our trusted baseball database tells us Hellickson has struggle vs the NL posting a 1-4 mark in eight attempts (4-4 TSR) and heads to the bump 1-4 his last five road starts in August including 0-3 as a road favorite.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 6

Oakland at Cincinnati: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv

Going back to the well is something that those in baseball betting have no problem doing, especially when it continues to offer up winning plays. In this case, the play involves the interleague clash between the Cincinnati Reds and Oakland Athletics.

Despite coming off a battering by the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, the Reds are -145 home favorites according to the current betting odds at Bovada, with a run total of 8.

Mat Latos will take the mound for the Reds at Great American Ballpark, sporting a 10-3 record and 3.38 ERA. In his last three efforts, he’s compiled a 2-0 mark and 2.41 ERA.

Latos’ pitching rival will be righthander Daniel Straily, who has a 6-5 record and 4.41 ERA entering tonight’s contest. Straily is looking to end a three-game losing skein, with his last defeat one of his more frustrating on the year. In that game against the Toronto Blue Jays, the Athletics’ defense committed two errors, allowing three earned runs in the 5-2 Toronto victory.

Since Latos arrived on the scene for the Reds last year, he has dominated at home, with the Reds racking up 22 wins in his 29 starts. Looking at tonight’s betting odds, his numbers get even better: when the Reds are a home favorite of -140 or more in a Latos start, the team is 16-3 since last year.

As a team, the Reds have been equally dominant in that baseball betting sweet spot of being a -140 to -160 home favorite. This season, Cincinnati has won 10 of 11 games when the betting odds are in that range, and 12-5 when it’s the first game of a series.

Straily has struggled recently, with Oakland winning just once in his last four starts. The team has also had a a bumpy road of late, with a 1-4 mark as a road dog following a loss. Not only that, but over the past year, the team is just 4-7 as a road dog in the first game of a road trip.

Two very telling baseball betting stats leap out when attempting to put a cherry on this sports handicapper’s sundae. One is that in the last 20 games, when a home favorite of between -140 and -160 is starting a series, it is 16-4.

The latter is even more eye-opening: since July 24, home favorites of -140 or more in a contest in which the run total is 8 or above are 41-9.

As always, a higher price on a game is cause to ratchet up the tension for a sports handicapper. However, in this case, the numbers add up well enough to conclude that our free MLB Pick is

Play Cincinnati -150


Bet on Today’s MLB Odds

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