Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Mike Lineback

Oakland A's Team Over 4 -120

Coming right back with the A's to score some more runs tonight. They have scored 28 runs (7 rpg) in their last 4 games combined. Meanwhile, Toronto have given up 4+ runs in 14 of their L17 games & 5+ runs in 6 of their L8 games overall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Jack Jones

Kansas City Royals -124

The Kansas City Royals are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. They have won six straight to get to .500 at 51-51 on the year. They have held their last six opponents to a combined 9 runs in the process!

I look for that dominant starting pitching to continue Tuesday with Ervin Santana on the mound. The right-hander is 6-6 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Royals. Santana is also 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 12 career starts against Minnesota.

The Twins give the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.505 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in nine home starts. Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City as well.

The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Twins are 16-56 in their last 72 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Minnesota is 2-9 in its last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Twins are 2-8 in Pelfrey's last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Royals Tuesday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Greg Shaker

NY Mets +128

There's a lot of talk about Wheeler and his control issues but the Miami Hurler tonight has not done well in that department either One would also think that with a "Fast" Fastball, this guy would be getting a lot more K's than he is. The problem is with movement and he has not developed that part of his game very well. He is off a strong performance at Colorado but let's not forget that the Rockies were slumping at the plate badly at that time. His previous 3 games saw the opposition score 12 times in less than 17 innings. Our guy is a strong prospect to  be somebody someday and while he has allowed way too many Dingers so far, he will be pitching in a Non-Dinger Park and verses the worst Dinger Hitting Team in the Big's. The Marlins are Overvalued here. I have bet them 3 times over the last week and I have won betting them each time. But when Oddsmakers start putting out Huge Fav Numbers verses these guys it's time to jump and that is what I am doing. It's easy for Miami to get fired up about playing the Pirates. They are playing the Mets, and they will do so in front of a very small crowd, negating the home field advantage. Let's also consider that the Mets actually have a better road mark than they do at home and they have won the last 4 times that Wheeler and Dealer has taken to the Hill. I'm going to grab this one with both hands and jerk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Bob Balfe

Texas Rangers -140

The Angels are on a losing streak and last night had a win snatched from them because of a pathetic bullpen. This team can't hit left handers and after a blown game like yesterday its tough to bounce back. Take Texas

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Wunderdog

Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati -150

The Reds let one slip away last night, as they took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th, but watched the Padres plate a pair of runs for the walk-off win. Mat Latos takes the mound tonight for the Reds, and brings with him a 10-3 mark backed by a 3.39 ERA. That trumps the numbers produced this season by Edinson Valquez who enters at a disappointing 8-8 with a hefty 5.70 ERA. The Reds have now seen each of their last two games result in a loss when their opponents staged a walk-off win in each game. Teams over the past 10 seasons that have faced that fate are strong when coming back at 21-11 with a healthy 15.3% ROI when playing as a road favorite. I think the Reds come to play tonight, as they are 37-15 in Latos' last 52 starts. Play on Cincinnati.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Teddy Covers

Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Kansas City

My clients and I cashed a pair of winners with KC over the weekend in Chicago, riding KC’s current six game winning streak.  And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the surging Royals won’t be able to notch another victory against the slumping Twins this evening. 

Kansas City has a boatload of positive momentum. The Royals are winners of six straight, back to .500 for the season while trailing in the Wild Card race by only five games.  Starter Erwin Santana has been as steady and consistent as it gets all year; throwing 15 quality starts in his last 19 trips to the hill.  Santana has shut down the Twins twice already this year – 14 innings of work, four earned runs allowed in a pair of KC victories.  Coming off an eight inning, one earned run performance against the hot hitting Orioles, look for Santana to take care of business against Minnesota again tonight.

The Royals lineup has underachieved for much of the season, but they’ve had little trouble against the Twins pitching staff while winning seven of ten previous meetings between these two teams this year.  KC has scored seven runs or more three times in the last five meetings against Minnesota.  They destroyed Mike Pelfrey once already this year (two innings, six earned runs) and the Twins haven’t won for Pelfrey all year: 5-10 in his last 15 trips to the hill.  No surprise here if they bash Pelfrey again tonight. Take Kansas City.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Joe Gavazzi

Oakland -150

Try not to get excited about the last start of Buehrle who pitched a 2 hitter with 9 Ks in a 4-0 win. It was only against Houston, the worst team in the league. Now, Buehrle must take to the road where, in 10 starts, he has a 6.44 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Buehrle has never had much success from this mound where, in 13 starts, he is 2-7 with a 4.45 ERA. Far prefer to ride the positive momentum that is Oakland following their wire-to-wire 9-4 rout of the Jays last night. With their 4th consecutive victory, Oakland is now vying for the best record in all of MLB at 63-43. That is courtesy of their recent 43-21 blitz and includes one of the best home records in baseball at 34-16, 24-6 recently and 21-6 following a win. Well aware that Strailly struggled in BBLs vs. LAA but prior to that the As had won 7/9 Strailly starts in which he personally went 5-0. In a similar way, Oakland has won 5/6 Strailly home starts where he has pitched his best ball of the year with a 3.63 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Must be impressed with the youngster's 75/28 KBB for the season!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Jeff Benton

Your Tuesday freebie is the Rockies-Braves to sail Over the total with Nicasio and Wood starting.

Last night's contest saw 17 combined runs, and with Wood making just his second start of his career, the runs could be adding up once again tonight.

Nicasio is looking for his third straight win, but keep in mind the Over is 12-6 when he starts this season.

These teams have played 3 straight Overs this season, and the Rockies come into this game having played Over the total in each of their last 4 games.

If you like offense, then Turner Field is the spot for you tonight.

Take the Rockies and Braves to head Over the total once again tonight.

2♦ COLORADO-ATLANTA OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Brad Wilton

Tuesday's comp play is the underdog Diamondbacks over the Rays.

Tampa Bay playing a make-up game last night in Boston was extended into the later part of the evening due to a rain delay in the 8th inning, and while they got away with the 2-1 win last night, I look for the Rays to be just a little tired from having to extend themselves last night against their division rival.

Arizona needs to string together some wins, as they have been passed by the Dodgers for the lead in the N.L. West division.

The Diamondbacks will look to get their offense cranking against one of Tampa's lesser starters. Roberto Hernandez has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last 9 starts, and while Ian Kennedy has been a shell of his former 20-win self, I will look for Kennedy to give Arizona the quality start it is looking for against the tired Rays tonight.

Arizona to post the upset win.

2♦ ARIZONA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Brett Atkins

My free winner for Tuesday night is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds, as the home underdog looks awfully good a second night in a row.

After showing up in Los Angeles for a weekend series with the Dodgers as one of the hotter teams in baseball, the Reds have to now be one of the more disappointed teams, as they've lost four straight.

After winning the series-opener in Los Angeles, the Dodgers took the last three, including Sunday's walk-off victory, then last night it was San Diego winning in walk-olff fashion, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth.

This continues to be the right spot for the Friars to gain a little momentum, while avoiding the National League West cellar, where the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants currently reside.

Cincinnati has to be one of the most tired baseball teams in the bigs, having been on the road since July 22 and not having a day off the entire second half. In fact, over the first 11 days since the All-Star Break, the Reds have played 12 games - nine of them on the road.

While the Padres might not be the better team, they're the better choice and certainly the better value. Take the home dog here.

4♦ SAN DIEGO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Chris Jordan

Tough luck for the St. Louis Cardinals, who lost the primetime Sunday night game in Atlanta, as the Braves wrapped up a series sweep. Then the Redbirds had to travel and play on the road the next night, and sure enough, lost in Pittsburgh last night.

Now you're asking the Cardinals to play a doubleheader in an excited stadium with postseason hopefuls.

Generally at this time of the season, when we're ripping the July page off the calendar, seeing August and thinking football, we're also wondering about the MLB playoffs. And look what we have here, the Pirates are 1/2-game back of the Cardinals in the Central, and have caught the Cards in the right place at the right time.

These two have met five times this season - all in April - and are now embroiled in a crucial four-day, five-game series that could very well determine where this division is headed. Both teams own the top two records on the senior circuit and winning this series could very well solidify Pittsburgh as a legitimate pennant contender.

The strength of the Pirates has been their remarkable pitching staff, which ranks No. 1 in the bigs with a 3.08 ERA. The starters rank No. 1 with a 3.22 ERA while the relief staff is No. 2 with a 2.87 ERA. I'm not listing either Lance Lynn or A.J. Burnett in this game, but I will note that I don't mind having the Pirates' veteran righty throwing, as he sports a 2.96 ERA this season, despite a 4-7 mark. He pitches well enough to win and gives the Bucs a reason to win.

Take the Pirates today, as they get it done over St. Louis in the twinbill opener.

2♦ PITTSBURGH (Game 1)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Scott Delaney

My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, at home, as they open up a three-game series at home against the New York Yankees. And with the oddsmakers making the line so big here, I want you playing this game on the run line.

Although all Run Line and Total plays will automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, I am not concerned with who goes for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, and re-wager the game if that takes place.

That being said, allow me to touch on the pitchers you're likely to end up with on your ticket, that being New York's Andy Pettitte and L.A.'s Zack Greinke. Not a bad pitching favor if you ask me.

Pettitte is in after a tough-luck loss against the Texas Rangers, as he fell to Matt Garza in his Texas-debut. Nonetheless, the Yankees' left-handed veteran had allowed three or more earned runs in seven consecutive starts prior to his stellar start last Wednesday. And, he did allow eight hits while taking his second straight loss.

With Greinke, you're getting an improving right-hander who is 8-3 with a 3.49 ERA this year, and who is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts at Dodger Stadium this season.

Take the Dodgers, and even if Pettitte or Greinke doesn't go, be sure to have action on L.A. tonight.

3 LOS ANGELES -1.5

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