MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 29

MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 29

Monday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cards starter Jake Westbrook went six strong innings in his last start against the Pirates on April 17. He gave up six hits but K'd six and did not allow a run.

Cold batting stat: Pirates star OF Andrew McCutcheon is batting .188 (3-for-16) against the Cardinals this season. It is his worst average against any team in the majors this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s and skies will be mostly sunny at gametime. Wind will blow out to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Cardinals are 1-8 in Westbrook's last nine road starts versus a team with a winning record.

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-145, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Braves pitcher Brandon Beachy is scheduled to make his first appearance of the season Monday. He made one start against the Rockies at Turner Field in 2012, lasting 6 1/3 innings and allowing two ER en route to a 7-2 victory.

Hot batting stat: With a home run Sunday, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki has now homered in back-to-back games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Rockies are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-115, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Mets starter Jeremy Hefner is 0-2 with an 18.47 ERA over his last two starts.

Hot batting stat: Marlins star OF Giancarlo Stanton continues his torrid pace at the dish. Stanton is 9-for-13 (.692) over his last four games. He has four doubles and two homers over that span.

Weather: The roof could be closed in Miami due to a 20 percent chance of rain by gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-90s and wind will blow in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Miami.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-120, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija took the loss in his only 2013 start against the Brewers on April 19. He lasted seven innings, giving up five runs on six hits en route to the 5-4 loss.

Hot batting stat: Cubs OF David DeJesus is a career .462 hitter (12-for-26) against Brewers scheduled starter Kyle Lohse. He has a double, triple, homer and four RBIs versus the veteran righty.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Brewers are 7-23 in their last 30 versus the National League Central.

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (+130, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Reds starter Mike Leake is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts.

Cold batting stat: The Reds were 4-for-26 with runners in scoring position in their four-game series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. They dropped three of the four games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies and 10 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow in from left field at 3 mph.

Key betting note: The Reds are 8-1 in Leake's last nine road starts.

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Monday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (+105, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays ace David Price is 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA in his five starts since returning from the DL. He has three complete games in that span.

Cold batting stat: Sox DH David Ortiz is 7-for-31 (.226) with no homers and seven strikeouts in his career versus the lefty Price.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 7 mph

Key betting note: The under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-129, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers starter Matt Garza went 7 1/3 strong innings while giving up one run (unearned) on five hits in a 3-1 victory over the New York Yankees in his Rangers debut on July 24.

Hot batting stat: Rangers SS Elvis Andrus is 23-for-62 (.371) with four doubles, two homers and five RBIs in his career versus Angels starter Jered Weaver.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Texas.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-150, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Indians starter Zach McAllister is 0-3 with a 6.14 over his last three starts.

Cold batting stat: White Sox OF Alex Rios is 4-for-31 (.129) this season versus the Indians. It is his lowest batting average against any American League club.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies and 10 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 9-0-3 in Sox SP John Danks' last 12 starts versus the American League Central.

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A's (-162, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: A's starter A.J. Griffin has given up five homers in his last two starts (11 1/3 innings). He is 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA over those two starts. Griffin has given up eight dingers in his five July starts.

Hot batting stat: Jays OF Colby Rasmus continued his scorching-hot July with the game-winning RBI in Sunday's 2-1 victory over the Houston Astros. Rasmus is hitting .375 with 11 doubles, three homers and 13 RBIs in the month.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Athletics are 11-2 in Griffin's last 13 starts as a home favorite.

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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Slumping Rangers on a 3-12 skid costing backers -$1089 look to turn it around Monday at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington when they host division rival Los Angeles Angels. The Rangers have newly acquired Matt Garza taking the ball brining a 7-1 record, 2.87 ERA to the mound. Garza tossing 7 1/3 innings of one run-ball in his first start with Texas puts a 6-0 streak on the line. Opposing Garza will be Jered Weaver who has been dominant lately. The Angels right-hander 5-5 on the season with a 2.98 ERA is coming off eight scoreless innings in a victory over Twinkies and has yet to give up a run in the second half. Numbers that stick out favoring Texas, the Rangers have a sparkling 11-4 mark at home vs Halos when swinging away at Weaver offerings, they're a smart 12-4 as a favorite opening a series in Arlington including a sparkling 7-1 opening a series following a road swing. However, Texas bats silent of late blanked in three of their last four games laying the expected $-1.25 to -$1.35 is a dangerous proposition. Especially against a hurler like Weaver who is in a groove. Halos a compelling 15-2 in July w/Weaver, 11-5 overall the past sixteen on the road with the hurler and a smart 5-2 opening a road series as an underdog are worth a second look.

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Colorado at Atlanta: Preview & Pick

One of the starters in tonight’s baseball betting offering will be under the microscope as he makes a long-awaited return to the mound when the Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies in the first of a three-game series.

That drama plays into how the sports handicapping community approaches this contest, which according to the current betting odds at Bovada, has Atlanta as a -145 favorite with a run total of 7.5.

The Braves will have Brandon Beachy starting, his first appearance in over 13 months since he underwent Tommy John Surgery. Prior to last year’s injury, Beachy was 5-5 on the year with a 2.00 ERA, and had a 2-2 mark with 1.47 ERA at Turner Field.

Colorado will send southpaw Jorge De La Rosa to the hill, who brings a 10-5 record and 2.97 ERA. His best numbers have come at Coors Field and especially during the day, factors that aren’t a part of tonight’s equation.

In this opener of the series, it’s important to remember that Atlanta is 12-3 in the first game of a home series this year, and the last five times the team has faced the Rockies in a home series opener, the Braves have come away with a win four times.

That success against Colorado hasn’t only been in the first game; over the previous five seasons, Atlanta has a 14-4 record at home against the Rockies.

The Rockies, in contrast to the Braves’ success in a series opener, have struggled this year, managing just four wins in 16 tries in the first game of a road series. Even worse is the team’s record when the contest begins a road trip: one victory in seven attempts.

From an overall baseball betting perspective, Colorado has floundered when in the role of a road dog of more than +120. This season, the team has just a 12-24 mark under those circumstances, including 4-12 in the last 16 games.

Finally, the Braves are coming off a home Sunday night clash against the St. Louis Cardinals. That has been a feather in the cap of teams who have followed it up with another home game, amassing a 2013 record of 12 wins in 15 tries.

While putting our faith in a pitcher who hasn’t thrown in a major league for over a year can be seen as risky, the entire collection of sports handicapping data that favors the Braves in this contest is enough to make this our Free MLB Pick for this afternoon as

Play Atlanta -145

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MLB Odds and Picks – David Price aims for rare feat at Fenway
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS -- We’ve got a make-up game today in Boston between the Rays and Red Sox that could see a little bit of history made. If David Price wins at Fenway Park for the second time in five days, he would become the first starting pitcher to do so in 82 years. Last Wednesday, he pitched a five-hitter in a 5-1 win over the Red Sox, and since the finale of the four-game set was rained out Thursday, this make-up game gives him the unusual opportunity.

It also gives the Rays an opportunity to reclaim first-place in the AL East. With Boston’s win over the Orioles yesterday coupled with the Rays’ loss at New York, the Red Sox have a half-game lead in the division.

Price (5-5, 3.75 ERA) has been one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball since coming off a six-week stint on the disabled list with a left triceps strain. He’s 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA in five starts since returning.

And there aren’t many pitchers who have handled Boston hitters at Fenway the way Price has over his career. In nine starts at the ballpark, he’s 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA, the lowest ERA among any active pitcher with at least 20 innings pitched at Fenway.

On Monday, Price is matched up again with Felix Doubront (7-4, 3.78 ERA), who he beat on Wednesday. While Doubront took the loss, he allowed only three runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Since May 16, Doubront hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any game – a span of 13 starts. Despite his consistent pitching, Boston is only 7-6 behind him this season.

We think Price will make some history today with another good performance and keep the hot Rays rolling with their 22nd victory in 26 games. With the way their pitching is dominating, they look like the best team in the AL.

We also like the game to stay UNDER 8 runs. Last week, all three games between the two teams at Fenway stayed UNDER, and Boston is on a run of UNDERs in 10 of its last 11 home games. Both of today’s pitchers have been stingy, so the trend should continue.

Has the Captain righted the ship?

After hitting only seven home runs in the first 27 days of July, the Yankees hit two on Sunday en route to a 6-5 win over the Rays that pulled them within 7.5 games of first-place in the AL East. Could the sudden surge or power be a sign of things to come, or is it more a matter of a blind squirrel eventually finding a nut? The question gets a little more serious when considering that Derek Jeter homered in his first at-bat since coming off the disabled list and that the other home run came from newly-acquired Alfonso Soriano.

Does this version of the Yankees have what it takes to make a run at the division or a wild card? We’ll have to see how far the energy from Sunday’s game takes them. Jeter’s presence in the lineup obviously has an impact, and it was also nice for Yankees fans to see Soriano come up with the game-winning hit in the ninth inning. With two months to go, New York still in striking distance, and a move likely to be made by GM Brian Cashman for a starting pitcher, 40-to-1 to win the World Series right now doesn’t seem like that bad a play among all the teams not currently positioned in a playoff spot.

It’s strange that the Yankees have taken on this underdog vibe, and even though many of us hate the team, we can’t help but be impressed by the job they’ve done with their roster of castoffs. And those castoffs have done a good enough job to keep the Yankees in contention as they awaited the comeback of their Captain. Jeter’s back, Soriano’s comfortable – 4-for-5 Sunday – and that their tone may ill set the stage for better things to come from the rest of the lineup.

Is Jimenez finally back?

After going eight strong innings Sunday, allowing only two hits in a 6-0 win against the Rangers, it’s fair to say Ubaldo Jimenez is close to being the pitcher from 2010 that went 19-8 with Colorado. Since coming to Cleveland in 2011, he has been a disaster. Last season he led the AL in losses with 17 and had a chunky 5.40 ERA.

Although Jimenez (8-5) still has a high ERA (4.17) this season, he’s battling better in tougher situations, and on Sunday, he had his best stuff of the year. It was the fifth straight home win for the Indians behind Jimenez, and since June 1, they have won eight of his last 11 starts. On the season, they are 14-7 behind him, and he’s been a major factor why the Indians are still hanging around in the AL Central, only three games behind the Tigers.

We’re not saying their 1-2 punch of Justin Masterson and Jimenez is in the anywhere near the neighborhood of the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but the duo has been getting it done. If Cleveland can somehow avoid those long losing streaks like we saw in April, May and June, they might be a worth a shot at 25-to-1 to win the World Series, something that hasn't happened since Lou Boudreau's club in 1948.

Monday's selections:

Rays (Price) -115 at Red Sox

Rays/Red Sox UNDER 8 (-105)

Cardinals/Pirates UNDER 7 (+105)

Second-half record: 25-15 (+1,161)

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