MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 28

MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 28

Sunday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins (-105, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins starter Jose Fernandez is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in four July starts.

Hot batting stat: Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton snapped his recent July funk by going a combined 4-for-6 with one homer and two doubles over Thursday's win against the Rockies and Friday's win versus the Pirates.

Weather: The roof could be closed in  Miami due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the mid-90s and wind will blow in from right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Marlins are 5-0 in Fernandez's last five home starts.


New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-130, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Mets starter Carlos Torres will be making his third straight start since coming out of the bullpen to join the rotation. He is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA through his first two starts.

Cold batting stat: Mets star 3B David Wright is 2-for-10 through the first three games of the series with the Nats.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow out to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-1 in Nats SP Taylor Jordan's last five starts overall.


Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants (-149, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Giants starter Tim Lincecum was shelled in his first start following his July 13 no-hitter. The Reds touched him up for eight ER on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of work in an 11-0 loss on July 22.

Hot batting stat: Cubs SS Starlin Castro is 7-for-16 (.438), including one homer and five RBIs, in his career versus Lincecum.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Cubs are 1-6 in SP Travis Wood's last seven starts versus the National League West.


San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-192, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: DBacks starter Patrick Corbin is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts versus the Padres this season.

Hot batting stat: Padres OF Chris Denorfia is 7-for-13 with two doubles and three solo homers in his career against Corbin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-100s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Padres are 1-10 in their last 11 during Game 3 of a series.


Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (-168, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin is 6-2 with a 2.19 ERA over his last eight starts.

Hot batting stat: Two of Brewers OF Norichika Aoki 15 career home runs have come against Chacin. He is 3-for-5 with a BB in his career against the righty.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow from right field to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Brewers are 6-20 in their last 26 during Game 3 of a series.


Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers (-102, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers starter Chris Capuano has surrendered exactly five earned runs in three of his previous four outings.

Hot batting stat: Prior to Saturday's game, Dodgers SS Hanley Ramirez is batting .386 with five homers and 15 RBIs in July.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-70s and sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-1-1 in Reds SP Tony Cingrani's last seven road starts.


St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (-102, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Braves starter Kris Medlen is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.40 in four July starts.

Cold batting stat: The Cards are hitting a dismal .102 (6-for-59) after the first two games of the series.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The home team is 6-0 in umpire Paul Emmel's last six games behind home plate.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 28

Sunday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips
By Covers.com

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians (-106, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.09 ERA and 3-3 record in nine home starts this season.

Cold batting stat: The Indians roster owns a collective .143 batting average (6-for-42) against Rangers starter Alexi Ogando.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the high-60s. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 13-3 in Ogando's last 16 road starts.


Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (+138, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Rays starter Matt Moore is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in three starts versus the Yankees this season. He is 1-0 at Yankee Stadium in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Rays OF Matt Joyce is 5-for-13 (.385) with two homers, one double and one triple in his career versus Yankees starter Phil Hughes.

Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the high-70s and wind will blow from right field to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Rays are 10-1 in Moore's last 11 road starts.


Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays (-171, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Astros rookie starter Jarred Cosart is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA in 15 innings of work in his first two career starts. Houston has won both games.

Hot batting stat: Jays 1B Edwin Encarnacion was 4-for-4 in Saturday's 8-6 loss. He is 8-for-10 through the first three games of the series.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-1 in umpire Will Little's last 5 games behind home plate.


Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-106, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: O's starter Jason Hammel is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA in his four July starts.

Cold batting stat: Baltimore slugger Chris Davis is just 2-for-16 (.125) in his career versus Sox starter Jon Lester.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the high-80s and wind will blow out to left field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The Red Sox are 2-7 in Lester's last nine Sunday starts.


Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-111, 8)

Cold pitching stat: The Sox belted two homers while chasing Royals starter Bruce Chen from the game after 4 2/3 innings in a 9-1 win on June 21.

Cold batting stat: The Royals roster bats a collective .115 (6-for-52) against Sox starter Hector Santiago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 16 mph. There is also a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.


Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A's (-142, 8)

Cold pitching stat: The A's have lost SP Jarrod Parker's previous five outings despite a great 2.32 ERA in those starts. Parker gets just 3.35 runs of support per start.

Hot batting stat: Angels slugger Mike Trout is 6-for-17 (.353) with five RBI in his young career versus Parker.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-0-1 in Angels SP Tommy Hanson's last eight starts overall.


Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (-142, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Twins starter Kyle Gibson is coming off his best start this season going six strong innings, surrendering five hits and two earned runs in a 10-3 victory over the Angels on July 23.

Cold batting stat: At .243, the Twins own the second-worst batting average in the American League, only ahead of Houston's .235.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The home team is 12-2 in umpire Chris Guccione's last 14 Sunday games behind home plate.


Interleague

Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers (-190, 9)


Hot pitching stat: Tigers starter Rick Porcello is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three July starts.

Hot batting stat: Phillies OF Delmon Young is 8-for-22 (.364) with one homer, two doubles and four RBIs in his career versus Porcello.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The Phillies are 1-4 in SP Jonathan Pettibone's last five road starts.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 28

Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Braves
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

Two of the best teams in the National League will battle on Sunday Night Baseball as the Cardinals take on the Braves in Atlanta.

MILLER MAKES A CASE

Shelby Miller is 10-6 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season for the Cardinals. The righty is making his first career start against the Braves. He has had some problems on the road giving up 2 runs or more in five straight starts away from St. Louis. Miller has exhibited awesome control for the most part outside of a 5-walk game back on July 10th against the Astros. The Cardinals’ starter has won five of his last eight starts.

WHERE IS LAST YEAR'S KRIS MEDLEN

Kris Medlen is 6-10 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.38 WHIP for the Braves. The righty lost only one game in 12 starts last season, but he just hasn’t had the same success this season. He has allowed 12 home runs in 119 innings of work after giving up only 6 home runs all of last year. The righty has allowed 3 runs or more in seven straight starts, including 15 runs in his last three outings. Medlen has not been able to go too deep for the Braves; he has pitched into the 6th inning just four times in his last ten outings overall. The Cardinals beat Medlen last October when he allowed 5 runs and three hits in just over six innings of work.

INJURY REPORT

The Cardinals’ injury list is short, but they have a few important names on there. Matt Holliday is returned to play on Saturday which reduces the list by one. Jason Motte, Rafael Furcal, Jaime Garcia and Chris Carpenter are all out with shoulder or elbow ailments. Motte and Furcal underwent Tommy John surgery.

The Braves are dealing with the gruesome season-ending injury to Tim Hudson who recently broke his ankle against the Mets. Atlanta is hoping to get Brandon Beachy back soon. The Braves are also expecting the return of BJ Upton who is out with a groin injury. Atlanta is also without Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters because of Tommy John surgery.

TRENDS

Cardinals are 10-4 in Miller’s last 14 starts
Cardinals are 6-2 Under in Miller’s last 8 road starts

Braves are 18-6 in Medlen’s last 24 home starts
Braves are 3-1-1 Over in their last 5 Sunday games

HITTERS TO WATCH


No Braves have faced Shelby Miller

Carlos Beltran 0-for-6 vs. Medlen
Yadier Molina 1-for-4 vs. Medlen

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Cards, Braves Complete 3-Game Series Sunday Night
by Brian Graham
Statfox.com

A pair of division leaders wrap up a three-game set on Sunday night when Shelby Miller tries to pitch his Cardinals past Kris Medlen and the Braves.

The 22-year-old Miller (10-6, 2.77 ERA) will try finish July unbeaten, having gone 2-0 (St. Louis is 3-0) with a 2.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 17 K's in 17 IP during the month. Medlen (6-10, 3.78 ERA) has had a dismal follow-up to his brilliant 2012 season (10-1, 1.57 ERA), and was in danger of losing his spot in the rotation before Atlanta lost both Tim Hudson (ankle) and Paul Maholm (wrist) to long-term injuries this week. Medlen has pitched horribly during a three-start losing skid, allowing 15 runs (14 ER) and 24 hits in 14.2 innings, which equates to an 8.59 ERA and .364 opponents' BA. These number may not improve much against the surging Cardinals who enter the series with a four-game win streak and rank among the top-3 teams in the majors in runs (495, 3rd), hitting (.278 BA, 2nd) and getting on base (.339 OBP, 3rd). The Braves, who are coming off a 3-4 road trip, have a subpar .249 BA this season (19th in MLB), but rank among the top-12 teams in the majors in runs (443), OBP (.322) and slugging percentage (.409). St. Louis enters this series with the best road record in the league at 30-20 (.667), but Atlanta has the best home mark in all of baseball at 31-15 (.674). Both clubs have also thrived against right-handed starters this season, with the Cards sporting an MLB-best 51-25 mark (.671) in this situation and the Braves going 42-33 (.560, 8th in majors) versus righty starters.

While Miller (1.28 WHIP) has been nearly unhittable at home (1.74 ERA, .193 opponents' BA), he has been mediocre on the road, going 4-4 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponents' BA. However, he's been dialing up the K's in all venues (10.3 K/9 at home, 8.7 K/9 on road) and St. Louis is a hefty 13-6 (.684) when the youngster takes the hill. He's never faced the Braves in his brief career, but has preferred pitching at night (8-5, 2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.0 K/9) rather than dealing with daylight (2-1, 3.09 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.1 K/9). The Cardinals don't like to have their youngster throw a ton of pitches with 5.83 innings per start, but they have a slightly above-average bullpen that carries a 3.57 ERA (14th in MLB) and 1.24 WHIP (12th in majors) this season. During the four-game win streak, St. Louis relievers have a combined pitching line of 8 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB and 6 K's.

The Braves are just 9-11 in the 20 starts Medlen (1.38 WHIP) has made, but he's been much better at home this season with a 3.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He's never started against the Cardinals in his career in the regular season, but he has logged 9.2 innings in relief against them, sporting a mediocre 3.72 ERA, but stellar 0.93 WHIP as the result of just one walk and eight strikeouts. Medlen did pitch against St. Louis in the one-game Wild Card playoff last season and was done in by poor fielding, allowing five runs in 6.1 innings, but just two of those runs being earned. He allowed just three hits and zero walks while striking out four in that 6-3 defeat, which knocked Atlanta from the postseason. Medlen hasn't pitched more than seven innings all season and averages only 5.95 innings per start, but he knows he has an elite bullpen to hold a lead for him. Braves relievers carry a majors-best 2.68 ERA this season and their 1.18 WHIP ranks second behind only Pittsburgh. All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel has saved 28-of-31 chances this season, sporting a 1.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and an insane 59 K's in 37.1 innings (14.2 K/9).

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 28

MLB Odds and Picks -- Miller meets Medlen
By: The Linemakers 
Sportingnews.com

The last time the St. Louis Cardinals got a look at Atlanta's Kris Medlen was in the NL Wild Card game in 2012.

The Braves had won Medlen's final 12 starts of the season before the one-game playoff, but the Cardinals scored five off of him and eventually won 6-3. Since then, it's all been downhill for Medlen. He hasn't been able to create that same magic from last August and September.

Coming into Sunday's game, Medlen (6-10, 3.78 ERA) has lost three straight for the first time in his career and has posted a whopping 8.59 ERA in that stretch. Perhaps the only thing in his favor is the Cardinals bats have gone cold. Since scoring in the second inning of Friday's 4-1 defeat, St. Louis has gone 16 straight innings without a run. Julio Teheran won 2-0 last night, and now the Cardinals backs are up against the wall. They're facing a sweep in Atlanta for the first time in 10 years.

Shelby Miller (10-6, 2.77 ERA) takes the mound for St. Louis and hopes to build on his strong performance from Tuesday where he went six scoreless innings in a 4-1 win against the Phillies. Before that game, Miller had given up 10 runs in 12.2 innings over three starts.

We think the Cardinals; bats are too good to be halted again, especially with a struggling Medlen on the mound.

FERNANDEZ MASTERFUL AT HOME

We have great rookie pitching matchup in Miami today between Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole (5-3, 3.51 ERA) faces and Miami's Jose Fernandez (6-5, 2.74 ERA). The Pirates are battling for the division crown and their first playoff appearance since 1992; while the Marlins havve the worst record in the National League. The Marlins have played decent of late -- winning four of their last six.

When Fernandez is on the mound, they are almost unbeatable.

Fernandez allowed only three runs combined in his past two starts -- both Marlins win. Miami has won seven of his last nine starts overall, including wins in his last five home starts. In nine home starts this season, he's gone 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA. This will be his first start against the Pirates this season.

Cole hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his eight starts this season, but during a three-start losing streak that was halted his last time out, he only got four runs of support. Cole comes off his best outing of the season; when he allowed two runs over seven innings against the Nationals on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh broke out of their little hitting slump on Saturday and were spurred by getting key hits with runners in scoring position (6-for-17). In their previous nine games, they had hit only .107 (9-for-84) in those situations.

We think this will be a very low scoring game with Fernandez continuing his edge at home.

Sunday's selections:


Cardinals (Miller) -111 at Braves

Cubs (Wood) +138 at Giants

Marlins (Fernandez) EVEN vs. Pirates

Pirates/Marlins UNDER 7 (-120)

Astros/Blue Jays OVER 9.5 (+105)

Second-half record: 22-13 (+1,034)

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