Umpire Trends In Handicapping
Re: Umpire Trends In Handicapping
1. If you're going to cap for umpires make sure that you look up their 2013 stats as well. There are many who were 60% Over in '13 and are 60% Under in '14.
Try to find umpires who are consistent year in and out.
2. Laziness does NOT win the day. A small strike zone is not a small strike zone! Is it skinny or wide? Watch games and make notes on the umpires. If an umpire is calling strikes 2 inches off the outside with LHH, then fade teams with largely left-handed lineups (and suspect the under as well).
3. Use Pitch FX. Pitchers who only throw breakers will have massive issues when up against an umpire with a short SZ off the bottom. They will be forced to digress to their other pitches which are not in their wheelhouse. Either that, or they'll risk throwing the breaker up in the zone and getting the label peeled. Excellent time to fade even ace pitchers.
On the other hand, if the zone is skinny, then focus on sliders and sometimes cutters. A pitcher throwing breakers with an ump who has a tall SZ on the bottom will always out pitch a 'lateral movement' pitcher against and umpire with a skinny SZ and vice versa.