Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 27

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 27

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Texas at Cleveland
The Rangers look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 0-4 in Justin Masterson's last 4 starts against Texas. Texas is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 16.661; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.765
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Under

Game 953-954: NY Mets at Washington (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.200; Washington (Haren) 15.696
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Over

Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.789; Miami (Koehler) 15.471
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145); Over

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gorzelanny) 15.114; Colorado (McHugh) 14.071
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 959-960: San Diego at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.096; Arizona (Skaggs) 14.221
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under

Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 13.119; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.796
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-230); Over

Game 963-964: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.231; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 17.598
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Over

Game 965-966: Houston at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.207; Toronto (Johnson) 14.114
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+190); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.377; NY Yankees (Nova) 14.294
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under

Game 969-970: LA Angels at Oakland (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 16.025; Oakland (Milone) 14.857
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over

Game 971-972: Minnesota at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 15.483; Seattle (Harang) 17.022
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over

Game 973-974: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 15.461; Baltimore (Feldman) 14.368
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Under

Game 975-976: Texas at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.749; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.090
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Under

Game 977-978: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 15.839; White Sox (Sale) 14.749
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Over

Game 979-980: Philadelphia at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Valdes) 14.521; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.010
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Over

CFL

Saskatchewan at Hamilton
The Tiger-Cats look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games against a team with a losing record. Hamilton is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4 1/2)

Game 125-126: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 114.623; Hamilton 112.135
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4 1/2); Over

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Saskatchewan at HamiltonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hamilton (1-3) will have revenge on their mind and a chip on their shoulder as they look to bounce-back from their awful 37-0 loss to Saskatchewan from last week in a game where they managed only 195 total yards of offense. The problem for this Tiger-Cats' offense is that they are second to last in the CFL by scoring a mere 19.8 PPG. Hamilton will likely continue to struggle to generate points against this Roughriders team that leads the league by limiting teams to only 16.8 PPG. The T-Cats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total both after a straight-up loss as well as a point spread defeat. Furthermore, Hamilton has played 4 straight home games Under the Total. Saskatchewan ratcheted up 506 yards of offense last week -- but they are due for a letdown from this unit as they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total following a straight-up victory. Take the Under in this one.

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Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners    
Play: Seattle Mariners 

Seattle fits a solid system here that has cashed 20 of 23 times and plays on home favorites off a home favored loss where they scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits vs an opponent off a road dog win where they scored 4 or less runs, in a game where the total was 8 or less. Minnesota has lost the last 6 of the last 7 in the series. Harang is on the mound for Seattle and he has won 4 of 5 at home when he is favored. Deduno goes for the Twins and they have lost 8 of his 11 road starts. Look for Seattle to win this one.

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Stephen Nover

NY Mets +130

Perception isn't meeting reality with the Nationals being priced as such a high home favorite. I would argue that the wrong team is favored based on the pitching matchup.

The Mets happen to be an above .500 team on the road. They have the same amount of losses on the season as Washington does and are swinging hotter bats.

The pitching matchup is Dillon Gee versus Dan Haren. Gee is one of the hottest pitchers going having not allowed a run during his last two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings. He is 3-0 versus the Nationals this season in three starts compiling a 0.96 ERA.

Gee hasn't lost during his past six starts. In four of his last five outings, he's given up zero runs twice, one run and two runs. The Mets have their closer, Bobby Parnell, rested and their bullpen has allowed almost a run less per game than the Nationals' bullpen since June.

Haren, on the other hand, looks close to being washed up with a 5.79 ERA. The Nationals are 0-11 in his last 11 starts. Haren has surrendered five, six and five runs during his last three home outings.

Haren has been terrible when facing the Mets posting an 8.14 ERA during his last four starts against them.

Washington doesn't figure to bail out Haren either with its offense. The  Nationals are 4-12 in their last 16 games, averaging a puny 2.7 runs per game during this span.  Their best offensive weapon, Bryce Harper, aggravated a left knee injury during yesterday's doubleheader and may not play.

The Nationals also are dealing with some clubhouse issues with the controversial demotion of former closer Drew Storen. Washington has performed below expectations all season. Maybe the Nationals will turn things around, but this sure doesn't seem like the spot for that to happen.

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Dave Essler

San Diego / Arizona Over 8.5

There's several reasons I like this. First off, San Diego had been hot as hell at the plate coming out of Milwaukee. It was somewhat predictable that they failed to score last night, although I certainly didn't see Delgado throwing a three hit shutout. The Padres are simply much better against left handed pitching, and after the travel now a nights' rest, I expect them to get their half here. Skaggs has really only had the one start against the Cubs that was great, otherwise, he's given up runs. Normally, I might worry about the D-Backs bullpen, but they weren't used much last night. Had they been, I might have gone bigger. Still, there recent success (the D-Backs pen) has come against lighter hitting teams like the Cubs and the Giants, so they could well be a bit over valued right now. Working backwards, the Padres pen was used and abused the last game in Milwaukee and again last night, so it's all on Cashner tonight. Now, Cashner CAN have his moments, I suppose, but his ERA away from Petco is over 5.00 while at home it's a mere 2.50. And, both offenses have seen both pitchers, so this could start sooner rather than later. Obviously I don't know the lineups yet, but Gregorious nor Kubel started last night, so I fully expect Arizona to have their A team out there. We got away with one last night when Arizona scored all we needed, and tonight I simply don't see the pitcher's duel here, and as always, 4-4 is a win.

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Bruce Marshall

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

he Rays thus assume the top spot in the AL East and now threaten to bury the Yankees, losing touch with the top contenders, in the division race. We hardly think the recent addition of Alfonso Soriano is going to be any panacea for the Bronx Bombers; Soriano went 0 for 5 on Friday in his Yankee homecoming as he donned the pinstripes for the first time since early in his career, way back in 2003. Tampa Bay's starting pitching has been airtight now for over a month and even youngsters like Saturday starter Chris Archer are joining in the fun; all Archer has done in his last three starts is win them all, conceding just one run and 13 hits over 22 IP. In fact, the Rays have won his last six starts. Doubtful that New York starter Ivan Nova fares any better against Tampa Bay than his last outing on June 23 when absorbing a 3-1 loss when outpitched by...you guessed it, Chris Archer.

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Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has a good young arm going in Samuel Deduno (604, 3.50 ERA), who is 2-1 his last three starts. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West. The Seattle Mariners are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. American League Central and the offense is tweak, 19th in on base percentage, 23rd with a team batting average of .244. Seattle has their worst starter going in Aaron Harang (5-8, 5.06 ERA), so grab the visitors.

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Jesse Schule

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

The race for the A.L. East is heating up, and Baltimore is right in the thick of things, three games back of Boston and 3.5 behind the division leading Rays. The Orioles have owned Boston lately, and they will look to wrap up their seventh straight series win over the Sox at Camden Yards Saturday. Ryan Dempster will toe the slab for the visitors today, and he hasn't been all that sharp lately. Dempster (5-8, 4.28 ERA) has been tagged for 12 runs over just 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts, but the Red Sox have been able to overcome his mediocre efforts and win each of those games. He's faced Baltimore twice already this season, going 0-1 with a 2.13 ERA, and the Red Sox lost both those games. Adam Jones has given him trouble in both those meetings, and he's 4-for-9 with a pair of RBIs lifetime versus the veteran right-hander. At this stage in his career, Dempster doesn't log a lot of innings, so the Sox bullpen will likely see plenty of action as well in this fixture. The Orioles hand the ball to recently acquired Scott Feldman, who is coming off his best performance as an Oriole. Feldman (9-7, 3.75 ERA) went eight strong innings allowing a pair of runs on five hits in a win over the Royals his last time out. He's enjoyed success against the Sox, going 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in three starts versus Boston since 2010. With a more consistent starter and a lineup that's been successful at the plate, the home team should have a significant edge here today.

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Sports Experts 17

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Here we are back with our free pick of the day that has been very profitable last four days going 4-0. Today we have this game between to bad teams in the league that not to many people will put their eyes on it, but we have a very good point that make us give all our and Don Best followers this winner for tonight. We have a matchup between Tom Gorzelanny 1-4 and Collin McHugh 0-1, what's the point here and why we are taking The Milwaukee Brewers to win this game, both pitchers are pretty bad but the most important thing going to see here is even Gorzelanny lose his last 4 games in a row he have a season era of 2.47 and his last 3 starts a 2.55 era, that is big!!!, not to many pitchers in the league have this era and the reason he don't have more winning games is because of the team he plays for. In the other side McHugh with a season era of 10.29 and his last 3 a era of 9.00, this means that tonight we'll see a great performance of Gorzelanny helped by the Brewers for a BLOW OUT in Colorado.

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Jimmy Boyd

Chicago White Sox -160

The White Sox should have no problems picking up a win with Chris Sale on the mound. This year Sale has a 2.47 ERA in his eight home starts. Kansas City should give up a lot of early runs when they have Wade Davis getting the start. In his nine road starts Davis has a 7.71 ERA and a 2.048 WHIP. In his last three starts Davis is 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA.

Kansas City struggles at the plate against left handed starters. They are scoring just 3.3 runs per game with a .234 batting average. They are facing a White Sox team that has hit well against division opponents, posting a .266 batting average and scoring 4.1 runs per game. With such a huge advantage on the mound, the White Sox are an easy call in this game.

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Brad Diamond

Cincinnati Reds +122

Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu came up with another poor performance last time as he struggled against Toronto allowing nine hits and four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Ryu has now given up 9 runs and 16 hits in his last 10 1/3 innings of work. For the Reds this evening Bronson Arroyo (9-7, 3.19) gets the call. The aging veteran has been superb of late throwing 16 innings with just one earned run allowed. He hits the bump after stifling SF 11-0 on Tuesday. In his L3 starts Arroyo has struck out fifteen, while walking just one…Control!

No doubt the Dodgers have been on fire of late cashing 23/29, 5-0 with Ryu in the box. However, with a key Thursday night win in game #1 of the series it appears the Reds might have broken the momentum of the Dodgers. Further, Cincinnati has won 6-of-8 in Los Angeles and show w/a solid 4-1 record when Arroyo goes against the Dodgers. Finally, before Saturday the Reds had won 5 straight roadies and 8-of-9 versus the NLW…Cincinnati!

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Justin Bay

Padres / Diamondbacks Over 8½

Andrew Cashner will be taking the hill against the Diamondbacks tonight. In his last game against Arizona, he let up four earned runs through 6 innings while giving up 9 hits. In that game, Arizona's lineup batted .346 against Cashner. He has struggled on the road this season with a 5.07 ERA and opponents hitting .265. He is coming off a fair start against the Brewers letting up 3 earned runs through 6 innings, but the Brewers are one the worst teams in the league. In his career, Arizona hitters have an average of .286.

Tyler Skaggs will be throwing for the D-backs and to say the least, he has had a rough career against the Padres. He has a 10.13 ERA and the Padres are hitting .343 off of him. Skaggs has been league average at home with a 3.38 ERA with opponents hitting .252.

In game one of this series, Arizona shut out the Padres 10-0 so look for the Padres to come back hungry in game two. Arizona can put up runs quick and with Cashner on the mound who they have had good success against, look for this game to be high scoring.


Twins / Mariners Under 8

Deduno has been pretty solid for the Twins this year with a 6-4 record and a 3.50 ERA. He is coming into this game having a very good career against Seattle (13 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1.38 ERA, .163 OBA). He has had below average stats on the road this year with a 4.25 ERA, but I look for him to have a better outing facing a Mariners team that does not put many runs up on the board. He is coming off a very good start @ LAA (7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER). The Twins have not given any of their pitchers run support throughout the year and without Mauer in the lineup, this game should be no different.

Aaron Harang is this season has struggled to find his stuff which shows in his 5.06 ERA. On the other hand, he has had quality stats against the Twins in his career (2.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .233 OBA). When he faced the Twins earlier this season, he went 6 innings letting up only 1 earned run. He is coming off a good start vs. Cleveland going 7 innings and letting up only 1 earned run. Look for him to have some confidence coming into this game and holding the Twins to 2 or 3 runs.


Angels / A's     Over 8½

This matchup between the Angels and A's has Garret Richards on the mound for the Angels and Tommy Milone throwing for the A's.

Richards is stepping on the mound for his first start of the season, which is never an easy thing to do when your facing Oakland. In his career against the A's, he has a 6.10 ERA and Oakland's lineup is hitting .279 against him. Richards has struggled on the road this year (5.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .276 OBA). The Athletics can put up runs quick, so look for Richards to struggle early in this game.

Milone has struggled in his career against the Angels (5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .316 OBA). In his last start against the Angels he threw 7 innings, while giving up 7 hits and 4 earned runs. Angels hitters vs. Milone in his career are hitting .330.

The first game of this series had a total of 10 runs and I look for this matchup to be the same with two pitchers that have struggled against the opposing team.


Boston Red Sox +116

This game as Ryan Dempster on the mound for the Red Sox and Scott Feldman throwing for the Orioles.

Dempster has had very good success against the Orioles in his career posting a 1.73 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and holding the Orioles hitters to a .161 batting average. He faced Baltimore earlier this season throwing 7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2.35 ERA while holding the Orioles line up to a .179 BA. He has struggled on the road but with as much success as he had against the Orioles look for him to have a quality outing. The Red Sox were shut out in the first game of this series, so look for them to come out strong in this game facing a pitcher that they have good success against in their careers.

Scott Feldman comes into this game with pretty average stats against Boston with a 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .269 OBA. Boston's lineup is hitting .409 against Feldman in his career. With the Orioles shutting out the Red Sox in the first game, look for Boston to put up a bunch of runs early in this game and hold on to it.

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Art Aronson

San Diego / Arizona Under 8½

Andrew Cashner (6-5, 3.84 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Cashner is coming off a victory over the Brewers on Monday, giving up three runs off three hits and three walks with six strikeouts over six innings. Cashner will take his 3.97 ERA "night game" record into Arizona to throw opposite Tyler Skaggs (2-2, 4.11 ERA) who is coming off an unfortunate setback vs. the Cubs on Monday, giving up three runs off seven hits with no walks over six innings of work. Skaggs for the most part has been solid and has struck out 31 over his 35 innings of work over six starts for the Diamondbacks and he'll be looking to improve upon his respectable 3.38 ERA home record vs. the soft hitting Friars tonight. Coming into Friday night's contest, four of these team's last seven in their series have indeed gone "under" the number and I believe this one follows suit.

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Jeff Alexander

NY Mets +131

The Nats have been a dead fade with Haren on the hill as they are 4-14 in his 18 starts. They even are 0-9 in his last 9 starts versus a team with a losing record. The Mets are 5-2 in Gee's last 7 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Gee also has an outstanding track record against Washington. He's 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 9 starts. Haren, meanwhile, is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in 7 starts against the Mets. Fade Washington.

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Jeffrey Brandes

Seattle Mariners -141

Pitchers:
MINNESOTA TWINS: SAMUEL DEDUNO (R) ERA: 3.51 W/L: 6-4
SEATTLE MARINERS: AARON HARANG (R) ERA: 5.06 W/L: 5-8

After being shut out until the ninth inning on Friday against Seattle's ace Felix Hernandez last night, The Twins' Trevor Plouffe's bat finally broke through to get the Twins on the board and rookie Chris Colabello's two-run homer in the 13th inning gave them a 3-2 victory. The game went 13 innings.

SAMUEL DEDUNO gets the start for the Twins today. He's coming off of a strong outing in his last start as he gave up two runs on just four hits and five walks over seven innings on Monday against the Angels to pick up his sixth win of the year.

AARON HARANG is also coming off of a strong outing in his last start. In that game he allowed just one run in seven innings against the Indians. Besides all the trends favoring them, I like Seattle in this game on the revenge factor.

Key Trends:
Seattle is 9-1-1 SU in its last 11 games
Seattle is 6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Seattle10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota is 7-15-1 SU in its last 23 games
Minnesota is 6-15-1 SU in its last 22 games ,on the road

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Dave Price

San Diego Padres +116

Look for the Padres, who are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, to bounce back behind a solid outing from Andrew Cashner. The Padres are 6-2 in Cashner's last 8 starts versus a team with a winning record and 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a road underdog. He's also 1-0 (4-0 on the money line) with a 3.44 ERA in 4 career starts against the D-backs. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs, on the other hand, is 0-1 (0-2 on the money line) with a 10.13 ERA in 2 starts versus San Diego. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 in Skaggs' last 11 starts and 2-6 in his last 8 home starts. The Padres are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings. Take San Diego.

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Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Prediction: New York Mets

The Nats send Dan Haren to the hill against Dillon Gee and the Mets in Game Two of this three-game series in the nation's capitol Saturday afternoon in the NL East division duel. Haren has fallen on hard times this season, currently riding a 0-11 mark with a 6.02 ERA in his last eleven-team starts. Haren is also 1-6 in games against the NL East this campaign. With Gee 6-3 in his career team starts in this series, including 3-1 in this park, the dog becomes the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

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Steven Kane

Tigers -143

Max Scherzer seeks his major league-leading 15th victory as the Detroit Tigers attempt to hand the Phillies a season-worst seventh consecutive loss. The right-hander won for the 20th time in his last 30 starts since Aug. 10, the most in the majors in that span, while the injury-ravaged Phillies (49-54) have plated only 10 runs during their losing streak, batting .208 with 48 strikeouts in 197 at-bats, and they've scored five times in their last five

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Bob Balfe

Oakland A's -140

The A's are the best team in the AL at home so just off that alone we know there is a good chance they win today's game. I really like the way Milone pitches at its just a matter of time before he becomes a household name. The Angels continue to struggle and are not a very good road team. Take the A's

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L.A. Angels +126 over OAKLANDFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The A’s went off for six runs last night and evened up the series with a 6-4 win but it came against career stiff, Jerome Williams. When facing a half-decent pitcher, the A’s have very little chance of scoring more than three times. In fact, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer in 12 of their past 19 games. Over that stretch they scored more than three times against Wade Davis, Luis Mendoza, Jerome Williams twice, and in Houston against three Astro starters. From July 3 to July 20, Oakland was held to three runs or fewer in 10 of 12 games and their .211 batting average in July is the worst in the majors. They A’s are no better than at least three quarters of the teams in MLB but some incredible luck, extremely timely hitting and misleading record continues to have them way overpriced. Enter Tommy Milone. Milone's upside is capped, for now. A control artist in the minors, Milone's ability to maintain similar accuracy in his second MLB season has been integral to his success but it's hard to overlook a few glaring negatives in his skill set. Milone has allowed far too many fly balls and line drives, but pitching home games at O.co Coliseum (-12% RHB HR, -31% LHB HR) has worked to his benefit (3.20 home ERA/4.88 road ERA). His groundball/fly-ball split is an alarming 33%/48%. Righties continue to give him problems, as they have hit .276 against him and the Angels line-up can load up with right-handed hitters. Milone’s 1.26 WHIP is average and his xERA of 4.64 reminds us not to overpay. If you bet on him today, you’re overpaying.
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Garrett Richards will be making his first start since April. Despite a 6.26 ERA in those four starts, Richards was pretty solid (18/7 K/BB) and probably didn't deserve to lose his rotation spot. Overall, Richards has been quite good this season, albeit mostly as a reliever, with an elite 57% groundball rate. Over the past month (31 days), Richards’ groundball rate was 64% and he struck out 13 batters in 13 frames while issuing just four walks. Richards has always had the potential and if he seizes this chance he could claim a more permanent rotation spot. At pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum against the weak hitting Athletics, his chances of winning are greater than the A’s with Milone going.
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Minnesota +131 over SEATTLEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Twins won the opener here last night in a Felix Hernandez start and they get a much easier assignment here against Aaron Harang. Harang is coming off a 2-1 victory over the Indians and while that’s impressive, neither he nor the Mariners have won consecutive games that he’s started the entire season. Harang is hit and miss but he's playing with fire now. He’s allowed 15 bombs in just 90 innings and has a fly-ball bias profile of 38% groundballs and 44% fly-balls. Harang’s 5.06 ERA is fully supported by his xERA of 4.70. Harang is prone to the occasional blowup, rarely pitches a gem and his chances of losing remain greater than his chances of winning (5 W’s in 18 starts).
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Samuel Deduno has pitched under the radar the entire season and continues to be undervalued. His strikeout total is low with just 36 in 69 innings but he’s a groundball artist with a rate of 64%, the highest mark in the majors among starters with at least 40 innings pitched. Deduno also has a 50%/13% dominant start/disaster start split and at this level, that’s an impressive stat. Deduno also has an elite 17% line-drive rate and 11% line-drive rate over his past four starts. The Mariners were hot but they’ve lost two of their last three and could not win with Felix Hernandez opposing Scott Diamond (one of the biggest mismatches on the mound this year) last night. Surely, they are much too risky (and overvalued) with Harang favored by this much over Deduno.

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